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by Bruce Zaro  |  | PUBLISHED: June 12, 2008 AT 10:28 AM |   |

Following up on Chip's post from yesterday about the Greenback's technicals, I'm watching the US dollar index closely here as the investment implications are many. To put a finer point on it, the significance of a breakout at 74, which would be its 2nd important signal off the bottom, would suggest an initial target in the 75 - 77.50 range. Such a breakout would also hold negative short-term imlications for some commodities--particulary gold.

Intra-day, the high this morning was 73.96, so watch this gauge closely.

Chip,

In interpreting how the charts are "reading" the minds of investors, my view is that a 74 print would represent thoughts of the Fed being done with rate cuts and the next move would be a hike. This would stand consistent with the Fed slashing rates and seeing the dollar plunge, so why would that relationship change now?

This a very simplistic view I realize and a lot depends on the ECB. But that's how I see it.

I think I stole your idea in writing about the dollar yesterday, Bruce! An interesting line of thought for readers: if 74 is breached, do you think that will be representative of a market that is increasingly expectant of Fed rate cuts before year-end? If so, do you think the market will be proved right? Trying the lift the veil on the mind of a technician...

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