Stats After a Strong Run into the New Year

Since 1950, there have been 25 times (including the current year) where the S&P 500 was higher through the previous 4th quarter, through the Santa Claus rally period (12/15 - 12/31), and into the first five trading sessions of the new year. Of those times, the S&P 500 has a record of 19-5 for the next week, 18-6 for the remainer of Jan, 18-6 for the remainder of the 1st qtr and 19-5 for the rest of the year. Average gains for those periods were 0.59% 1.58%, 2.98% and 10.8%, respectively. Notable doozies include 1966 and 2002 where the S&P lost 13.75% and 24.2%, respectively, for the remainder of the year. Years where the 3 periods showed gains of over 1%, the S&P 500 has a record of 11-2 for the year.

 

 Stats courtesy of Wayne Whaley http://witterlester.com/