Pondering Further Gasoline Price Hikes

Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.5%

Two weeks ago, we pondered the odds of further gasoline price hikes (see "Playing The One-Armed Bandit Gas Pump"). In a nutshell, the odds then seemed long for much more upward momentum in gasoline prices. We, in fact, gauged the probability of a dime increase in the price of petrol by month's end at only 33.3%.

The nearby July NYMEX gasoline contract finished at $2.06 a gallon on the day the article was published. That turned out to be the high close-at least to date-for the contract. This morning, with just three trading days left in the contract's life, July gasoline opened below $1.88.

NYMEX RBOB Gasoline (Jul. '09)

So what happened?

Well, first and foremost, supplies increased. The latest Energy Department figures showed a 3.9 million barrel, or 1.9%, build in gasoline stocks. That brings inventory in line with last year's level. Demand for motor fuel, however, has been growing weakly.

Crack spreads, too, have topped out. Refiners will likely trim production until the spread improves, but that's not likely to help the expiring July contract.

NYMEX Crack Spreads

For now, it looks like the odds laid a couple of weeks ago are going to hold out.

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