My View of the S&P

The whipsaw price action has left a trail of losses in its wake.

Figure 1 has my take on the pattern that is forming: I think it’s forming a triangle (hence the whipsaw price action) with Wave ‘c’ to complete (go to the bottom of the trendline) and Wave ‘d’’s low to come in. If these waves transpire, then I’d expect to see a Wave ‘e’ throwover. The ‘throwover’ is more usual way Wave ‘e’ end; the alternative is a ‘Wave e’ that fails to touch the top trendline. Because this latter occurence happens so infrequently, as the price action to mark the end of Wave ‘e’, ‘I tend to look for the former (i.e. the throwover); I assume the latter only when the Wave ‘d’ extreme is breached.

The argument against the triangle is this: the retracements are less than ideal. I like to see retracements that remain with a 67% retracement of the adjacent wave. So far, this is not the case  for the pattern in formation.

If I am correct, the high for Dec 15 will not exceed 1232, basis March; and ideally the high will be within the zone 1220 to 1225. Given that the Globex high has already  hit 1220, it’ll be interesting to see if 1225 holds.