Is Meat (Yes, Meat) a Hard Asset?

Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.4%

Most people don't think of meat as a hard asset. After all, you want your steak tender, don't you? Still, the cattle market has been cooking since the beginning of February. Yesterday's 40-cent (0.4 percent) gain notched the fifth straight higher close for April live cattle.

The April contract scraped bottom in December at $85.05 per hundredweight (100 lbs.) after a six-month swoon from $95.18. Over the past couple of trading sessions, traders have taken prices up to test a critical breakout level at $91.35.

Bulls, you should pardon the pun, were encouraged as Monday-the first notice day for the expiring February live cattle contract-passed without a single delivery notice tendered. There's still plenty of time left before the spot month's last trading day, though.

The overall market tone has improved markedly as a spike in wholesale beef buying brought packers' profit margins back into the black.

Momentum's definitely behind the bulls: April's 10-day moving average crossed to the upside of its 50-day mean, MACD and RSI indicators have turned up, and stochastics have bottomed. The low notched at $90.50 on Jan. 20 is where near-term support lies, while Monday's $91.20 high represents immediate resistance.

 

CME Live Cattle (Apr. '10)

 

A close above $91.35 could set up a test of a $92.50 June reaction level. A 1-cent move in the 40,000-lb. contract is worth $4.

Stateside securities investors can't get direct exposure to live cattle. They can get closest through the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Livestock Subindex ETN (NYSE: COW), which has a 63 percent weighting (the balance is devoted to lean hogs). The ETN's bullishness, as a result, has been more muted than cattle futures. Investors have been cautious since the ETN's Feb. 1 low, where volume spiked to over 177,500 notes. Though subsequent trading interest has moderated to no more than 20,000 notes a day, that's still more than the three-month average volume of 7,000 notes per day.

For those investors willing to look beyond the typical definition of hard assets, the cattle market might provide a tasty diversion this spring.