Confidence is the New Buzzword
By Jim Farrish | October 29, 2008 | 3:39 PM | 0 Comments
Plenty of talk today around the concept of confidence stepping up. That may be true, but I am not buying into the confidence measurement of the media. One big up day doesn't cancel all the negative sentiment and skepticism we have experienced over the last eight weeks. Crude prices rise on... confidence. Yen rises on rumored rate cuts in Japan sparking... confidence. Libor rates fall below 3.5% on... confidence. Fed rate cuts inspire... confidence.
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Out of the Blue
By David Fry | October 28, 2008 | 6:49 PM | 0 Comments
Well, not really. This type of rally has been building for some time given how oversold things had become. It’s also why we closed our shorts and went to cash. This rally began last night in Asia when Japanese authorities directly intervened in currency and stock markets. The rally then spread to other Asia-Pacific indexes.
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The Beat Goes On
By David Fry | October 27, 2008 | 7:08 PM | 0 Comments
Before the open things looked bleak as Asia and Europe equity indexes were being pummeled. Surprisingly US markets rallied quickly off the pre-open and opening lows on not much news until positive home sales data gave bulls another reason to pump things. We turned positive, but in the end, no one wanted to stick around on the long side and stocks were in a sharp free-fall into the close. Volume was respectable but breadth continued showed continued distribution.
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Stocks Fail to Follow Through
By David Fry | October 21, 2008 | 6:51 PM | 0 Comments
I suppose that’s the message he’s sending. But, he knows better given his past experiences and responsibilities. After all, if a bank’s trading desk can day-trade free money profitably they would. He ought to know.
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Washed-Out and Undervalued? Or, Just Oversold?
By David Fry | October 20, 2008 | 6:47 PM | 0 Comments
Washed-out and undervalued? Or, just oversold? That’s the big question for equity bulls and bears. Some notable veterans [Buffett, Hussman, and Grantham for example] believe the former is the case although they ultimately accept more downside as a possibility [um, who doesn’t?].
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So That's the Bottom Then Right?
By David Fry | October 13, 2008 | 6:41 PM | 0 Comments
Yeah, they’re tossing everything they’ve we’ve got at markets. Lloyd Bridges line from the movie Airplane may be what we all need right now eh?
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Paulson & Bernanke: What's Coming Next?
By David Fry | October 09, 2008 | 7:21 PM | 1 Comment
Batman [Paulson] & Robin [Bernanke] Batman: "It's time to get set, Robin. It's almost oda wabba simba." Robin: "It's almost what?"
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Big Wednesday Surrender
By David Fry | September 17, 2008 | 8:40 PM | 0 Comments
Yeah, I’m thinkin’ Big Wednesday once again and thanking family friend Chris Spezzano for the image. When I was young I used to…nevermind. Blogging this market everyday shortly after the close seems useless since the news cycle is moving faster than prices. I’m just gonna say this is as volatile a week as we and most others predicted, and it’s not over.
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The Quant View: Same Song, Second Verse
By David Brown | September 09, 2008 | 12:26 PM | 0 Comments
Current Sector Performance As expected, financials were the leader last week in sector rankings, with small-cap financials producing a 1% positive for the week, while home builders helped consumer discretionary to finish second with a small gain. Materials and energy did rather poorly, despite their outlook for increased income and current reasonable prices. Best and Worst Performance in Sub-Industries
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The Next And Newest Risk - Global Growth
By Guy Lerner | August 04, 2008 | 12:21 PM | 2 Comments
Before getting to the main thrust of my article let me state several facts regarding my current trading positions in the market. First, equities remain in a bear market and are likely to do so for another 12 months. Two, I am positioned long and have been so for 4 weeks now for a contratrend rally. My long side bias is due to three factors: 1) the retail investor is bearish and this is a bull signal; 2) the smart money (see previous article) is bullish and this is a bull signal; 3) inflation pressures are moderating significantly. Now to my article which was written on August 3, 2008.
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