Barclays Bank Tries to Avoid UK Government's Bailout Plan

By Roger Nusbaum | October 31, 2008 | 12:30 PM | 0 Comments

Barclays Bank is going to great lengths to avoid as much of the UK government's dole as possible, according to this from the FT.

Brrrrace Yourself For More Whipsaws

By Roger Nusbaum | October 27, 2008 | 2:04 PM | 1 Comment

That title is the punch line to a dirty joke. I think market participants need to brace themselves for some serious whipsaw to come. As the crash has unfolded it has been clear that fundamentals became far less important as prices cascaded lower. Panics have happened before of course (and will happen again) and part of the process is some sort of violent, corrective rally. Just as the selling had little to do with fundamentals, so too would a corrective rally.

Slowly Sorting It Out

By Roger Nusbaum | October 23, 2008 | 11:54 AM | 0 Comments

Or not. One of the reasons I enjoy writing is to try to help people try to figure out how they should respond to various market events based on how I respond to various market events. I've been fond of saying take a little process from me and a bunch of other people and create your own process. That is not to imply I have all the answers, just my way of looking at the world.

Panic in the UK

By Roger Nusbaum | October 22, 2008 | 10:02 AM | 0 Comments

In some of my recent posts here and also on my blog I have talked about starting to get more interested in buying stocks. The basic idea is that after a 40% the chance of a big drop becomes much less.

Guru Tuesday

By Roger Nusbaum | October 21, 2008 | 12:17 PM | 5 Comments

Mark Mobius has a write up in the FT today giving a broad state of the asset class opinion. Not surprisingly his outlook for emerging markets is positive including for some countries that face some serious obstacles including Ukraine and Romania. He notes that countries with surpluses, he specifically mentions China's $1.9 trillion war chest, look to weather the crisis better and come out sooner.

Mr. Tree, Meet Mr. Forest

By Roger Nusbaum | October 20, 2008 | 12:43 PM | 0 Comments

From 30,000 feet I am a bull on oil and have been for quite a while. The big macro for me is the global ascendancy theme unfolding in fits and starts around the world. The stat for this concept is that the US uses about 25 barrels per capita while China uses about two and India a little less than one barrel. These numbers, and for other ascending countries, are going higher over the next few years.

Bear Markets Should Make You Feel Uneasy

By Roger Nusbaum | October 16, 2008 | 12:28 PM | 0 Comments

I have been writing about Statoil (NYSE: STO) as a client holding for several years now. A couple of times I have shaved a little off as the stock moved way up. The first time I shaved some off was in April 2006. Crude oil was just getting to $75 for the first time and STO was around $33. The next sale was in May 2008 when the stock was around $43. That May sale represented about 25% of clients' positions.

So two and half years ago oil at $75, STO at $33. Today oil at $69 STO at $16 and change. The trade today was the number of shares sold in May at $43 times two. I was able to buy twice the number of shares for fewer net dollars, not sure my average price yet, but obviously far less was spent today than taken in six months ago.

Buying stock in a crash does not feel good. The next big move from here could be down and if that happens then the timing, short term, will turn out to be poor. 

However I have done some exhaustive research and it turns out we still need oil. Not only do we need it but a lot of other countries need it too. 

If the move to $147 was over done so too might the selloff be overdone.An important thing to remember is that the chance of something (oil, an oil stock, the broad market) going down a lot is much less after it has gone down a lot. Oil peaked at $147. Even if it goes to $50 (not my prediction), that would be a $19 drop from here. It has already dropped $78, the vast majority of the decline.

Unless you think we're all done with oil.

Again, this is uncomfortable. I don't know about any bottom but I know I bought after a huge decline.

A New World Order

By Roger Nusbaum | October 14, 2008 | 11:30 AM | 0 Comments

World stock markets are obviously trying to digest enormous moves in both directions and a whole lotta news. I'll worry about effectiveness and future consequences in future posts. Regardless of how we got here the US could not solve this crisis by itself and more interesting is that it could be argued that the US did not provide much leadership. A potentially less important US, less important in the world economic order, is a theme I have been working on for several years now. 

Big Rally Works Its Way Westward

By Roger Nusbaum | October 13, 2008 | 1:12 PM | 0 Comments

It started Sunday with the open of the Aussie session (New Zealand actually opens earlier), and the rally has worked its way west all day. This is still a market panic playing out, panics can happen to the upside too.  If you were truly freaked out last week then it is possible your allocation to equities is too high. If you managed to make it through the week without any panic sales good but you still need to consider whether you do have too much exposure to equities or more broadly, too much exposure to risky assets.

How To Trade Power Spikes

By John C. Lee | October 10, 2008 | 11:05 PM | 0 Comments

Today is one of my favorite days, not because it’s the end of the worst week in market history, but because the end-of-day rally created so many trading opportunities for next week (yes, can you believe it?). I’m talking about trading power spikes, one of my favorite patterns. A stock exhibiting a power spike is one that displays an immediate and forceful change in sentiment from the previous day. Whatever the reason, traders instantly changed their minds on the direction of the stock…a very powerful signal indeed.