http://www.greenfaucet.com/more-exclusives/86188?user_id=739 en http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14212 Tue, 09 Feb 2010 08:37:48 -0500 Builders Economy Lenders Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14212 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14179 This is the final in the series (Part I, Part II). To date we have identified the barriers, and have suggested solutions for the trader who cannot pull the trigger. Today we have a look at solutions at the trader who enters without forming a risk management plan—before or after entry. I find this type of trader the most challenging. Initially I used to think that the behaviour was caused by: Mon, 08 Feb 2010 11:44:48 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14179 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14178 Yesterday we identified the main patterns that identify barriers to success. Today, I want to consider possible solutions. Fri, 05 Feb 2010 11:39:00 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14178 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14143 Here are the expectations for tonight 8:30 am EST: Consensus   Consensus Range Nonfarm Payrolls                            0          -40,000  to 75,000 Unemployment Rate - Level        10.1 %      9.9 % to 10.2 % Average Hourly Earnings              0.2 %       0.1 % to 0.2 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 12:26:14 -0500 Economy Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14143 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14105 I have been coaching traders to achieve their trading success since the mid-90s. I am still learning new methods of passing on information - the upcoming High Performance Program is a direct result of adapting the recent advances in Neurology to trading education. If the first public endeavour is anywhere close to the control group tests, I will consider it huge success. But what I  mean by success and what other mean by it may be two different things. In this case I define success as improving the abysmal stats: Thu, 04 Feb 2010 12:44:45 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14105 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14056 If I were asked what is the main difference between the mechanical and discretionary trader, I'd answer: "The importance of context". For the mechanical trader it's a question of see ‘a setup and trigger' ('see a trade'), take a trade; the discretionary views a setup in its context. Gold has served up a perfect example of what I mean. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:50:40 -0500 Education Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14056 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14008 The common view is: "the January Barometer holds that the stock market's direction from February through December is foretold by its direction during January" (Mark Hulbert). Mon, 01 Feb 2010 11:25:07 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14008 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13931 The instruments I trade have been keying off the inverse correlation of the S&P and US $ (I use the DX as a proxy for the US$ crosses). Yesterday the S&P provided a variety of buy signals and on my Barros Swings is still in an 18-day (monthly trend) uptrend. The DX setup as a potential 18-day change in trend pattern (up to down). Because the Market Profile ‘Neutral  Day Closing in the Top Quadrant' is such a reliable signal, I would normally execute in the evening session. Thu, 28 Jan 2010 01:06:31 -0500 Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13931 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13870 Julie asked: I would be glad if you could answer me a question, when will your nr. 3 happen? U.S. Government has pumped soo great amounts of money into bank market and banks still don’t want to release their money into circulation, so without that economy won’t be able to get into healthy state.What’s more, a deflation threat is becoming real more and more. Tue, 26 Jan 2010 11:43:49 -0500 Economy Education Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13870 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13839 Today I received a number of e-mails following a successful presentation on the weekend  sponsored by CMC. I normally ask for a critique of my talk - looking for negative feedback as a tool to improve the next time I give one. Basically the e-mails revolved around one theme: how can I do what I know I ought to do? Although the posts did not go into enough detail for me to come to a firm conclusion, I believe most of the writers were asking: how do I ensure I exercise risk management? Mon, 25 Jan 2010 12:37:53 -0500 Education Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13839 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13806 Today, I am looking at the DX (US$ Index) from the technical perspective. Figure 1 is a Monthly chart (Nearest Futures Month) of the DX (US$ Index). My preferred view is the DX is in process of completing either: A 4-wave continuation triangle orA 5-wave change in trend triangle. If (1) is correct then Figure 2 shows there are three ideal zone terminations: Fri, 22 Jan 2010 01:04:42 -0500 Currencies Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13806 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13805 Before we get into the blog, let me apologise for the haphazard updates this week. My new project is taking up inordinate amounts of time and with the travelling, I manage to throw out my schedule. I should be back to posting on a Mon to Fri basis next week. Today I want to step back and take a look at the US$. Let's start with the context. Fri, 22 Jan 2010 01:04:36 -0500 Currencies Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13805 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13739 I received an e-mail just now asking if I regretted exiting the EUR/USD at 1.4414 - given  that it is at 1.4192 and I have not re-entered the trade. Well at some level, I am sure there is some regret. But not enough for me to change my approach. The fact is that after exiting at 1.4414, the EUR/USD travelled to 1.4580. So the exit turned out to be correct. All that happened in this case is I did not get set on the re-short. Wed, 20 Jan 2010 11:46:42 -0500 Currencies Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13739 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13707 In preparing for my talk on Risk Management sponsored by CMC Markets (see attachment), it struck how important a roll the subjective aspects are for Risk Management. Our Vision and Goals set the scene for the driver of our Trading Rules (of which Trade Management forms a part; Trade Management is one aspect of Risk Management) and Money Management Rules. In the latter case, our subjective risk profile defines our trading philosophy; in turn our risk profile dictates the type of Money Management Rules we apply. Tue, 19 Jan 2010 11:49:14 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13707 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13675 Gold is in an interesting position. The below normal range and volume on Jan 14 was to be expected given the context to the CPI tonight. By that I mean, there does not appear to be a clear bullish or bearish sentiment among the participants. In that situation, we tend not to see large moves ahead of important numbers. Even so, the benchmarks in Gold appear clear. I have attached a Daily chart (Figure 1) to provide a context to the 60 minutes analysis: Fri, 15 Jan 2010 11:40:22 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13675 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13643 In the Forum-Twitter posted I made a comment that I added to my Gold positions. I received a few e-mails asking on what basis I did this. Here you are. I viewed the rejection high of Jan 11 and rejection low of Jan 8 as probably forming a 1-day sideways pattern. Figure 1 shows the daily chart I posted on the Forum. Thu, 14 Jan 2010 12:25:42 -0500 Education Precious Metals Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13643 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13593 Flashback to the early 80s: I had spent over 5 years, over A$500,000.00 in losses, and some unknown amount spent on books, courses and systems BUT still success in my chosen field was a far off dream. At the time I was using traditional technical tools for my trading: moving averages, RSI etc. Clearly I needed to change. ‘When the student is ready, the teacher will appear'. Tue, 12 Jan 2010 11:59:50 -0500 Currencies Education Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13593 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13560 “…many of his (Einstein) of groundbreaking discoveries were blighted by mistakes……His extraordinary intuition about physics nonetheless permitted him to discover profound truths despite - and sometimes because of - the mistakes…..the defining hallmark of Einstein’s genius was……an uncanny talent of using his mistakes as stepping stones….” Mon, 11 Jan 2010 11:15:56 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13560 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13540 Yesterday, we looked at the DX and concluded the DX was ready to rally. The jury is still out despite the fact that we had a bullish-conviction bar: the volume was on the light side and we have Non-Farm today. A ’surprise’ figure will probably move all the financials. Today, we’ll look at the S&P - all figures basis cash unless otherwise stated. Fri, 08 Jan 2010 01:13:25 -0500 Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13540 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13498 Once in a while, the instruments I follow all line up at a ‘do or die' point - what I call inflection points. Their resolution provides a highly reliable ‘line of least resistance' for the next few months. We appear to be at such a point now. First, I'll take the DX (US$ Index) as a substitute for the US$ against the majors. Thu, 07 Jan 2010 11:43:44 -0500 Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13498 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13468 Yesterday, I considered my three top trading themes. Today I want to consider the major economic theme: Has US spending changed the system to contain the next shock?At the end of 2009, Geithner told National Public Radio:"We cannot afford to let the country live again with risks…like we had last year…we will prevent that. And that is something within our capacity to prevent." Wed, 06 Jan 2010 11:06:37 -0500 Education Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13468 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13436 At the beginning of each year, I attempt to peer into the future by selecting two or three themes that are likely to play a pivotal role. This year I see three:Will China Deflate? Tue, 05 Jan 2010 11:07:39 -0500 Asia Crude Economy Financials Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13436 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13397 Since we are starting the new year, I think it's appropriate to review why so many traders fail.Traditional reasons would cite lack of discipline (lack of a Winning Psychology); lack of a risk management set of rules; lack of a plan with an edge (lack of a proven set of trading rules). All of these reasons would be true. But there is a missing element. Mon, 04 Jan 2010 10:58:44 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13397 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13361 Calls2009 was a good year from this Blog. We made quite a few timely calls; the most noticeable were:The S&P bottom in March.The US$ Index (DX) low in November.The Gold high on December 3.The least successful calls were the ones on the S&P - although by luck and skill (G), we avoided taking large losses. We have a call on the S&P at present. It will be interesting to see how that turns out.Important Event Wed, 30 Dec 2009 11:59:36 -0500 The Market Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13361 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13343 To add to my comments yesterday. One of the measures I use to assess the health of a market is ‘consensus surveys’. The two I like are: Whisper Numbers and Sentiment Trader. Tue, 29 Dec 2009 12:35:37 -0500 Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13343 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13330 Tyler Durden in “A Three-Month Flat Market” says: Mon, 28 Dec 2009 01:01:13 -0500 Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13330 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13283 Today we'll have a quick look at the NZDUSD - its pattern is almost exactly the same as the AUDUSD. Figure 1 is the long-term, monthly chart. The key question is whether the bottoming pattern is complete. We won't see confirmation of that until we accept above .8175 and until it does occur, it is quite possible we will see a congestion area form between: .8175 to .4923 OR .8175 to .3920 OR .8175 to .3257 (Maximum Extension of .8175 to .3920). Turning to the 18-day trend (monthly trend) - Figure 2 Tue, 22 Dec 2009 12:40:50 -0500 Education Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13283 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13262 Back to the GBPUSD and a look at the 18-day trend (monthly trend). FIGURE 1 shows the equivalent of the 13-week swing (black), 18-day swing (red) and 5-day (blue). The 18-day is in a sideways trend (ABC). The BPUS is in the process of accepting below the Value Area Low, 1.6145. If that occurs, we can expect the market to move to the Primary Buy Zone and a possible attempt below 1.5428. In doing this, the GBPUSD will trigger a 13-week line turn (Line Turn price 1.5603). This suggests we will see a 13-week Whole Point Count  and more downside. Mon, 21 Dec 2009 08:26:50 -0500 Currencies Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13262 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13222 Normally I'd look at the DX (US$ Index) to answer the question. But for that instrument, I have insufficient data. What I'll do instead is first look at the majors, then the AUDUSD and USDCAD. Today, I'll start with the GBPUSD. Figure 1 shows the 12-Month Swing (yearly trend).  The 12-M shows one of the classical formations of a sideways market: Fri, 18 Dec 2009 02:23:43 -0500 Aussie/NZ Canada Currencies Europe Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13222 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13192 In this blog, I want to consider the Foundations of Success - not just what is needed for success in the markets  but what we need to succeed in any field. It seems to me that before we can succeed in the markets, we must first lay down the foundations for generic success. Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:05:08 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13192 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13153 I was surfing the net and came across an interesting free webinar-video by Barry Craig.  You can find the webinar here: http://www.compassfx.com/webinar/g2w/tnf/webinar_replay_110909.html I’d agree with most of what he has to say, with one exception: Tue, 15 Dec 2009 01:25:12 -0500 Currencies Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13153 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13114 The world that is being unveiled by Neurology fascinates me. It opens all sorts of possible avenues for better decision-making. One of these areas is the human intolerance for ambiguity and uncertainty and yet both, ambiguity and uncertainty, are the essential conditions of the markets; more, they are the reason some are able to make a fabulous return from the markets. Mon, 14 Dec 2009 01:22:23 -0500 Economy Education Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13114 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13049 Yesterday's price action shows we are in a possible critical juncture in the DX (US$ Index) and the S&P. Yesterday, both formed neutral days at critical levels and with patterns that raise the probability that their counter trend moves may come to an end. If so, they will have aborted much earlier than I expected. S&P The S&P has the clearer pattern of the two. Let's turn to Figure 1. It shows that yesterday. The S&P completed the 1-day swing minimum target and reached the Primary Buy Zone: 1087 to 1083. Thu, 10 Dec 2009 05:54:29 -0500 Currencies Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13049 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13000 I received a barrage of mail asking that I explain the two topics. Before I get into that, a comment: for some reason, I seem to invite e-mails rather than comments. Folks I would be grateful for comments, questions or requests at the blog rather than e-mails. Thanks for helping out. Open-Gap Rule I use the open-gap rule for the ES (S&P e-mini futures) and 30-Year Bonds. It works for Gold if you use the combined day and night sessions. Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:02:34 -0500 Education Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/13000 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12984 From time to time I get a request to write about the Ray Wave. For the most part, I have been reluctant to teach this subject: I withdrew both the video and the book from sale.  In my view it is a powerful tool for stock trading, forex trading and futures trading; but its strength is also its weakness. It is flexible enough within strict guidelines to deal with the chaotic nature of the markets. But unless you stick to the guidelines you can ‘make' your trading charts say anything you want it to. Tue, 08 Dec 2009 02:25:41 -0500 Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12984 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12951 The Non-Farm Payrolls estimates for November were a surprise: to supporters and opponents alike of Obama's policies. Let's look at a few comments: Casey Research has a great piece entitled: "She' Breaking Up, Capt'n!. His key reason for the upswing: employers are hiring temp staff in anticipation of the Xmas holidays. The report makes two telling points: Mon, 07 Dec 2009 02:17:35 -0500 Economy Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12951 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12914 Today's blog is in the form of a video at: http://www.tradingsuccess.com/blog-post/12-4/12-4.htm Fri, 04 Dec 2009 02:09:20 -0500 Currencies Economy Precious Metals Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12914 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12880 On Wednesday we saw a strong down on the US$ Index (DX). The individual currencies, especially the GBPUSD, EURUSD and AUDUSD all reflected US$ weakness. In my weekly video and Forum articles, I had taken the view that if my DX Ray Wave Count was correct, then we needed to see two consecutive days strong down. Thu, 03 Dec 2009 04:43:23 -0500 Crude Currencies Precious Metals Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12880 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12854 Given what we have said so far, the research suggests the following to be optimum conditions for our trading analysis. Wed, 02 Dec 2009 06:39:23 -0500 Education Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12854 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12853 Neurologists have mapped our brains and have found that our  decision-making processes are dominated by the prefrontal cortex and the unconscious, lead by the limbic system. Figure 1 shows the relationship of the two. David York made the comment that if you compare the size of the two, the prefrontal cortex is one cubic foot and the unconscious is the milky way. Tue, 01 Dec 2009 12:00:00 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12853 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12851 I received an e-mail asking why I endorse Rob Hanna's work (Quantifiable Edges) seeing that I "am not quant trader and I say that I don't take tips". Simple, Rob's newsletter provides value for money. He approaches the markets from a different perspective and his quant methods are sound. I find the newsletters most useful when Rob takes a contrary view to the one I am holding. When this occur, I double check my premises and reasoning. Hope this helps Paul. Oh I forgot to mention. Rib is now on twitter: qerob Wed, 02 Dec 2009 06:12:21 -0500 Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12851 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12774 I have been in the markets since the mid-70s and a professional trader since mid to late-80s. If you said around 30-years of using technical analysis tools to successfully trade the markets, you would be close to the mark. For twenty of those thirty years, I have been a trading coach. From an early age, I wanted to leave my mark on the world and learnt from my Dad that the best way of doing that is by providing a service to others. Mon, 30 Nov 2009 01:24:10 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12774 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12741 Many years ago, Mark Douglas defined for me the three types of traders: Fri, 27 Nov 2009 11:54:03 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12741 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12707 The dollar has retreated against other currencies hitting a 6-week low against the Yen, after St Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed should keep interest rates low for some time.  He also said the Fed should continue buying mortgage backed securities and other assets. Oil, gold shot up against the dollar.  Existing home sales also shot up to 10.1% in October. The shocking home sales number is good for the housing sector, and also for banks.  The myth that banks are not lending money should evaporate as it is obvious that people are able to obtain housing loans. Tue, 24 Nov 2009 02:56:38 -0500 Economy Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12707 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12590 Today I attended a a conference organised by the Global Interdependence Center (GIC). The keynote speaker was Charles Plosser, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. In answer to a couple of questions, Plosser said: Thu, 19 Nov 2009 02:02:39 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12590 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12563 One of the questions that has perplexed me from as long as I can remember is: what is the difference that makes the difference? Why is it that some traders succeed while so many others fail? And why is this true of other aspects of our lives? In trading, Wed, 18 Nov 2009 01:02:59 -0500 Education Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12563 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12527 In the early day of the Market Profile, Pete Steidlmayer taught that ‘long-term’ perspective was governed by three types of fundamentals: Tue, 17 Nov 2009 01:45:39 -0500 Education Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12527 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12215 As our mentor is still under the weather with his fibro neck pain, here is a brief post about FOMC taken from my IdkitAna:"http://idkitana.wordpress.com/2009/11/05/after-fomc-before-jobs-report/" After FOMC & Before Jobs' Report For general information: Quote Thu, 05 Nov 2009 09:09:16 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/12215 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/11932 We live in exciting times. Neurology keeps bringing us new and wonderful insights on how the brain works. Yet traders seem to be giving the information little attention. This week, I'll be writing a few pieces on some of the advancements and how we can take advantage of them. Today I want to start to look at the importance of planning first thing in the morning. But to do that, I first need to look at the brain's structure. As most know, our brain functions on two levels: Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:29:44 -0400 The Market Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/11932