http://www.greenfaucet.com/more-exclusives/86188?user_id=-1 en http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9203 It's been a while since I've talked about the day-after options expiration, but this particular oddity might be a changin'. When is options expiration day? Equity and index options expire after the close of trading on the third Friday of every month. When the third Friday is a holiday, they expire on Thursday. The "day-after options expiration" then is usually the following Monday. Fri, 03 Jul 2009 01:46:15 -0400 Options Technical Analysis Michael Stokeshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9203 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9202 Summer time is here and it's time to pick up a good book. Fortunately for me, I was recently provided with a reviewer's copy of Connors Research's new book, "High Probability ETF Trading". Fri, 03 Jul 2009 01:41:14 -0400 Education ETFs Technical Analysis Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9202 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9200 Below is the CNBC interview with Nassim Taleb from Thursday. Of interest are the following observations: Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:54:02 -0400 Bonds Economy Financials Financials Fundamentals Housing Politics The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9200 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9198 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:16:07 -0400 Premium Newsletter http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9198 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9197 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:09:29 -0400 New Home Page - 300x250px http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9197 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9196 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:07:09 -0400 New Home Page - 300x250px http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9196 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9192 After nine months of explosive monetary and fiscal stimulus, you’d think economic recovery would be upon us. But the June jobs report tells a much different story. Non-farm payrolls fell by 467,000 as the unemployment rate edged up to 9.5 percent. This isn’t nearly as bad as the 700,000 monthly job losses of last winter, but it’s still a rough number. Equally disappointing is the household survey—often a key turning-point signal since it captures the health of small businesses—which has dropped 811,000 in the past two months. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:22:22 -0400 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9192 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9191 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 02:45:41 -0400 Economy Energy Farrish Files The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9191 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9190 Long-time readers will know I made a lot of outperformance in the coal space in late 2007 through mid 2008. While everyone was in oil, I was pounding the table in the stealth rally in coal. [Dec 6, 2007: Coal Stocks Quietly in a Bull Market] Thu, 02 Jul 2009 02:44:41 -0400 TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9190 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9189 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 02:23:31 -0400 Economy Tech Technical Analysis The Market Traders' Talk David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9189 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9188 The number of US-listed exchange traded products increased by 13 in June after dropping by 14 the prior month.  The total value of shares traded was $1.5 trillion, just below May’s $1.505 trillion. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 02:16:36 -0400 ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9188 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9187 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 02:09:37 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9187 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9186 Thanks to Steven Sears at Barron's for giving me an opportunity to contribute to his excellent options column, The Striking Price Daily, while he is on vacation. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 02:07:51 -0400 The Market Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9186 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9185 The unexpected acceleration of job losses sent the broader U.S. market down by more than 2%... right out of the gate. Moreover, the growth sector ETFs experienced the sharpest smackdowns. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 01:42:03 -0400 Economy Energy Sector ETFs Semiconductors Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9185 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9184 CNBC paraphrased quotation of the day, "US investors ahead of the July 4th weekend are in the Red, with White knuckles, and singing the Blues..." Thu, 02 Jul 2009 01:28:12 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9184 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9183 It is a fact of life that sometimes a bully needs the figurative "punch in the nose." Don Luskin is just such a bully. There have been at least three previous occasions after debating him on CNBC that he has unprofessionally and maliciously attacked me on his blog after the fact. Up until now, I chose to take the high road and decided not respond to his childish behavior. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:41:25 -0400 The Market Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9183 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9182 Like many groups, insurance was highly shorted in late winter - and once momentum jumped in the group, investors betting against the group were crushed. Further helping insurance firms specifically was the government riding to the rescue (TARP), ala commercial REITs, banks, et al. [Mar 12, 2009: The Next Big Bailout Choice - Insurance] Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:32:13 -0400 TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9182 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9180 Today I was going to comment that part of the success equation on which newbies focus: the trading methodology. Specifically I wanted to  ask the question: what constitutes a robust plan? But then Dr Janice Dorn's July1 newsletter hit my mailbox. It's so good that I want to share it with you not only because it well-written, but also because it fits neatly into our current theme. And while I may not agree with Janice's view of the purpose of the market, it is an angle worth considering. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:01:10 -0400 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9180 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9179 On July 1st, 2009, Michael Pento appeared on CNBC's The Kudlow Report to debate whether to buy bonds or stocks. To learn more about The Kudlow Report, click here. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:57:32 -0400 Home Page Video Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9179 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9177 The pundits are shocked, shocked to learn that jobs are still being lost. But there's really nothing surprising in today's jobs report for June, released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recessions have a habit of doing that, and for longer than the crowd expects. Disappointing and discouraging? Absolutely. Unfortunately, more of the same is probably coming. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:52:41 -0400 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9177 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9174 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.5% There's a little bit of tarnish on silver now. Silver spent the first five months of 2009 building strength against gold. The gold/silver ratio, which started the year at 80-to-1, slumped to a 61 multiple at the beginning of June. It's been rebounding since then and now has breached its former breakout level at 68x.  Gold/Silver Ratio Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:42:38 -0400 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9174 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9173 Originally Published June 24th, 2009: Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:41:42 -0400 Economy Financials Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9173 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9172 Among the best-performing exchange traded funds (ETFs) for the second quarter are those that have some kind of bent toward basic materials and natural resources. This signals that there's some demand around the world, especially in emerging markets, for these products so these countries can resume the growth they enjoyed in the first half of the decade.Market Vectors Coal (NYSE: KOL), up 68% in the second quarter; up 98.6% since March 9 low Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:54:19 -0400 Broad Market ETFs Sector ETFs Tom Lydonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9172 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9171 The 200 hour MA is being tested again in the EUR/USD. The level comes in at the 1.0423 level currently.  A break should lead to further price declines for the pair. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:02:26 -0400 Currencies Europe Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9171 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9170 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:58:36 -0400 Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9170 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9169 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:50:00 -0400 Options Technical Analysis Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9169 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9168 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:46:29 -0400 Economy Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9168 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9167 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:42:26 -0400 Education Technical Analysis David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9167 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9166 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:36:51 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9166 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9165 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:29:32 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9165 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9164 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:28:05 -0400 Education Personal Finance Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9164 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9163 ETF Watchlist 07/02/2009 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:18:22 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9163 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9162 Each month we ask the question, "What change in payroll employment would be consistent with other economic data from the same time period (the middle of the prior month)? Thu, 02 Jul 2009 01:18:59 -0400 Economy Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9162 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9161 I was on Bloomberg Television earlier today talking about the outlook for non-farm payrolls and how the dollar could react to it. For my full NFP and ECB Preview, make sure you read my special report What to Expect for ECB and Non-Farm Payrolls  Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:27:41 -0400 Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9161 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9160 Equity Wrap Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:37:34 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9160 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9159 Paul Amery writing for Index Universe wrote a fascinating piece on dividend trends in European markets. In fact, those dividend trends likely mirror changes in company distributions clear across developed market segments. Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:21:44 -0400 International ETFs Sector ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9159 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9158 Wed, 01 Jul 2009 02:45:41 -0400 Economy Energy Farrish Files The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9158 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9157 Some socially conscious investors are more interested in making a statement than making money. "You can do both," they say. And in principle, I agree wholeheartedly. However, I believe it is an egregious mistake to put sound investing decisions on the back burner. One shouldn't stubbornly adhere to an investment that is losing... just to make a point. Understanding when and what to buy, as well as when and what to sell, matters every bit as much as dogma. Wed, 01 Jul 2009 02:22:49 -0400 Energy Sector ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9157 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9156 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.5%Profit-taking in the New York Mercantile Exchange's August crude oil contract led to a lower close Tuesday, but the overnight session turned higher and maintained a bullish undertone all the way up to the ringing of the day session bell and the release of the weekly U.S. Energy Department inventory report. Wed, 01 Jul 2009 02:11:38 -0400 Crude Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9156 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9154 Somewhere, Ben Bernanke is cheering the collapse of the dollar: after all it bought the market another 1%. Of course, forget his sworn duty of protecting the US currency: who cares about hyperinflation when there is a great ponzi stock bubble to reflate. Wed, 01 Jul 2009 01:54:37 -0400 Currencies Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9154 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9153 The S&P500 has come back a full percent on the first day of the month and volatility has been very low just above R1. Internals are largely positive and the VIX is back down near 25 for new 9-month lows. However, Finanicals (XLF +0.33%) and Consumer Discretionaries (XLY +1.39 vs. XLP +2.22%) are lagging more than I'd like, and the 62% retrace continues to prove a difficult level to vault. Wed, 01 Jul 2009 01:52:00 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9153 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9152 Wed, 01 Jul 2009 01:37:56 -0400 International ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9152 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9151 Here's what we know about the first half of 2009: Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:30:31 -0400 Base Metals Builders Energy Financials Sector ETFs Technical Analysis US REITs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9151 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9150 Based on a number of factors, including my recent comments in VIX at Seasonal Cycle Low, I believe there is a very good chance the VIX may put in an intermediate-term bottom either today or tomorrow. Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:23:10 -0400 Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9150 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9149 A new ETF, the First Trust NASDAQ ABA Community Bank Index Fund (NYSE: QABA), began trading today.  This is neither a megabank ETF nor a regional bank ETF - it is a “Main Street” banking ETF. Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:06:37 -0400 Speciality ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9149 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9148 The weather in June was cool and rainy in the New York region, and something similar prevailed over the capital and commodity markets last month as well. As our table below shows, June was a month of mixed messages, ranging from a healthy rally in high-yield bonds to loss in REITs. Disappointing, perhaps, given the previous bout of good times. But the arrival of red ink is hardly unexpected. The March-to-May rally, after all, elevated all the major asset classes by dramatic levels. That couldn't last. But what comes next? Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:56:35 -0400 Bonds Commodities Economy Emerging Markets Global REITs US REITs Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9148 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9147 Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:52:18 -0400 Currencies Economy Europe Technical Analysis Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9147 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9146 This is the third year I have been reporting on the most popular posts at VIX and More. As of June 30th, the 2009 posts which have been read by the largest number of unique readers are as follows: Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:40:18 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9146 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9145 Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:37:13 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9145 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9144 The Stock Traders Almanac noted that the Dow Has been up 16 of the last 19 years on the 1st trading day in July. It's been a while since I last looked at 1st day of the month tendencies. Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:29:36 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9144 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9143 TraderMark has a post up with a couple of very important one-liners. First; RiverSource Investments LLC and Harris Private Bank are telling clients that diversification strategies to smooth out returns won’t work. They suggest shifting money to cash and bonds on concern gains will evaporate. And; Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:04:21 -0400 Education Personal Finance Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9143 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9142 I love to teach. My main payoff is the satisfaction I feel when I know I have had the same impact on traders' results as Peter  Steidlmayer had on mine. At the same time, I take another step towards achieving one of my deepest desires: to leave a positive legacy. Recently I met with the 2008 attendees from Habits of Success and it brought home to me that those that succeed correct    critical mistakes: Wed, 01 Jul 2009 09:31:49 -0400 Education Personal Finance Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9142 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9141 ETF Watchlist 07/01/2009 Wed, 01 Jul 2009 08:48:38 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9141 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9139 Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:11:47 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9139 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9138 Finding the right economic indicators is a challenge for investors.  Often the same data are presented in several different ways.  How does one make the right choice?Today's data on home prices from S&P Case-Shiller provides a useful example.  As everyone knows, prices are down significantly from peak values and the annual data have a strong seasonal component.  There are three quite different approaches. Wed, 01 Jul 2009 02:34:56 -0400 Builders Economy Financials Lenders Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9138 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9137 A bit of a bemusing article here from Bloomberg.  If only Ben Bernanke realized what a trend setter he is, from fashion, to economics, to language.  Ok, well at least in language.  I watched the original 60 Minutes article and while I was focused on about 30 other things Big Ben said, it appears the "simple is best" soundbite infatuated crowd could only focus on two words.  Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:03:07 -0400 TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9137 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9136 Um, “worse than expected”? I guess that sums it up today as Consumer Confidence data was terrible. Stock price declines today were milder than expected given the news. But, silly me, I forget that this is the quarter and mid-year end—there are bonuses to be had and bullish headlines to be written. Tue, 30 Jun 2009 06:58:12 -0400 Agriculture Asia Base Metals Bonds Broad Market ETFs Builders Crude Currencies Emerging Markets Energy Europe Financials International ETFs Nat Gas Precious Metals Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis US REITs David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9136 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9134 We at HardAssetsInvestor.com often hear the volume level rise precipitously in the conversation whenever the words "gold" and "manipulation" are strung together in the same sentence. Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:50:31 -0400 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9134 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9133 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:37:23 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9133 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9132 For someone who gets a kick out of volatility, the arrival of triple ETFs has been a little bit like manna from heaven. Of course the launch of the Direxion triple ETFs back in early November just happened to coincide with the highest VIX readings in history. There is nothing like record volatility, except perhaps record volatility times three. Tue, 30 Jun 2009 02:05:35 -0400 Financials Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9132 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9131 Apologies to readers.  I have been gone last week at my denomination’s annual meeting.  As I often say at this time of year, I never work harder than at that time, so please forgive my lack of posts.  As it is now, I am worn out, but at least I am home.  Home is my favorite place. Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:23:00 -0400 Economy David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9131 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9130 I have been picking on Morningstar for the odd way they look at ETFs and fortunately, in terms of unintentional comedy, Morningstar still doesn’t get it. I looked at a continue ed piece they put out through SPDR. There was a lot to pick on but for today we can just focus on the following. Tue, 30 Jun 2009 01:58:10 -0400 Education ETFs Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9130 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9129 We all know where the growth prospects are. By the same token, if emerging market stock assets are going to take 30% hits on corrections and 50% hits on bear markets, you'd better be a sharp trader to maximize profit. Yet what about the less active investor who wishes to broaden his/her emerging market horizons? Is he/she relegated to accepting enormous portfolio swings? Or does he/she have to go with the standard financial planning guidance of "only 5%" to emerging growth regions? Tue, 30 Jun 2009 01:41:30 -0400 Bonds Precious Metals Speciality ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9129 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9128 Measurements of volatility typically refer to the standard deviation of returns over a specified period. That obviously includes returns both below and above the mean. In practice, however, investors tend to be concerned primarily with downside risk, leading them to regard returns differently: positive and negative logarithmic returns that are equally distant from the mean are not treated as such by investors. Negative surprises have a much greater effect on volatility than do positive ones – witness the explosion of interest in 2008 in all things VIX and volatility-related. Tue, 30 Jun 2009 01:38:18 -0400 Technical Analysis Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9128 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9127 The last time we got a -2.42 standard deviation between confidence and the market, things got real ugly, real fast. Tue, 30 Jun 2009 12:44:15 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9127 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9126 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 12:59:24 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9126 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9125 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 12:33:34 -0400 Currencies Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9125 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9124 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 12:27:18 -0400 Alternative Energy TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9124 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9123 I wanted to share with you something I'm paying particular attention to - the TICK, Breadth, 3-Push Momentum Divergence, and Volume Divergence we're seeing at these intraday levels in the (NYSE: SPY) (and other US Market ETFs).  Let's take a quick look to see what this might mean so that we can be prepared if prices start falling from these levels. Tue, 30 Jun 2009 12:17:53 -0400 Broad Market ETFs Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPY Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9123 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9120 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 12:03:37 -0400 Sector ETFs US REITs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9120 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9119 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.5% Shareholders of agrichemical titan Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) were puzzling together the deployment prospects for some of the fat gains scored Monday after a 6% uptick in their stock's price. Tue, 30 Jun 2009 11:43:58 -0400 Agriculture Fundamentals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9119 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9118 While I own a lot of cash it is for different reasons than this story; I am simply awaiting a break out of this months long range one way or the other. However, I completely agree with the massive correlation among asset classes. "Herd mentality" is a great way to describe much of the trading, although I much prefer "lemming action". It's quite wonderful when almost everything moves up together... not so much when it goes the other direction. Tue, 30 Jun 2009 10:31:47 -0400 Fundamentals The Market TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9118 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9117 The EUR/USD moved down to test the trendline support at the 1.4055 level.  The low reached 1.4059.  The subsequent bounce has move the pair back higher toward resistance at 1.4080.  Sellers should emerge against this level.   Watch the level closely.  If the level can hold, the downside may find some additional selling pressure. Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:36:26 -0400 Economy Europe Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9117 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9116 ETF Watchlist 6/30/2009 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:33:22 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9116 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9114 The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the month of April comes in at -18.12%. This is down from the 18.72 % last month and looks as if the price of homes have stabilized. Below are the changes for the month for the 20 largest metropolitan areas. Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:30:04 -0400 Builders Economy Lenders Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9114 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9113 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:25:45 -0400 Economy Financials Traders' Talk David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9113 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9112 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:20:11 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9112 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9111 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:17:55 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9111 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9110 In what is turning out to be more than just a little bit of irony, sovereign credit default swaps may end up being more widely traded when a new basket of 15 countries is launched later this year through the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index (see WSJ article). It is widely believe by many that the corporate CDS market was to blame in part for the recent financial crisis. Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:07:44 -0400 Economy Europe Financials Int'l The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9110 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9109 Reading the victim's testimonies makes my jaw drop. Yes of course Madoff deserves what he got and yes of course there really are no words to capture the degree of despicableness. But, there is another critically important question seemingly being completely overlooked. How is it that so many people had all of their savings invested with him? I mean hasn't anyone ever heard of diversification? As a student of neuroeconomics and market psychology, I of course know the answer - the fear of missing out - but ... why doesn't anyone else ask this question? Tue, 30 Jun 2009 08:26:00 -0400 Personal Finance Retirement Denise Shullhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9109 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9107 The market is seeking leadership to continue its advance, but the summer holiday season might make it difficult. Perhaps the Energy sector is ready to resume this role. Last week's newsletter suggested the market was "heading down to major support at 880." And indeed, the S&P500 got as low as 888 on Tuesday before bouncing and closing the week at 918, down a tad, but at least the 880 support level held. That said, volume was weak for the week, so one cannot take great confidence in the support level continuing to hold. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 08:22:43 -0400 Technical Analysis David Brownhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9107 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9102   Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.4% Platinum has been on a roll recently. Unfortunately for bulls, it's been mostly downhill in June. The October NYMEX delivery topped out at $1,304 an ounce on June 4, then slid more than $140 before finding buying support last week.Futures opened down today, slipping nearly $3 to the $1,208 level only to sink to a midmorning low of $1,188. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 07:04:08 -0400 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9102 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9101 I thought this deliberate end-of-month/quarter shenanigans were against the rules right? Oh, they don’t enforce this type of activity—never have, never will. Anyway, with volume ultra-light, or absent bullish news for that matter, propping markets can be done with ease since it takes just a little paint to push things in the desired direction. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 06:37:30 -0400 Agriculture Asia Aussie/NZ Base Metals Bonds Crude Currencies Emerging Markets Energy Europe Nat Gas Precious Metals US REITs David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9101 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9100 If there's a more beleaguered and battered segment of investing than real estate, I haven't seen it. The iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate Fund (NYSE: IYR) is down -14% in 2009 after 6 short months; it dropped approx -40% in 2008 and nearly -20% in 2007. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 06:32:17 -0400 Asia Global REITs International ETFs Technical Analysis IYR Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9100 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9099 An example The last trades I took in the DX (US Dollar Index Futures) and the ES (e-mini S&P Index Futures) highlight the importance of being aware of our unconscious motivators. Regular readers of this blog know that I started 2009 trading results with a  whimper. I failed to recognize that my trading was in an Ebb state and as a result suffered the largest monthly loss since I started managing my private, closed fund in 1990. Since then I have been struggling to make a significant dent in the losses. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 05:29:16 -0400 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9099 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9098 In this past week, I have been focusing on identifying our unconscious motivators. The key one is the one I label our ‘default future'; unconscious, automatic responses learnt in our childhoodl the stuff that governs our default responses which, unless identified and dealt with, will continue to provide the same responses - responses which may or may not be appropriate. Since our default future falls into the ‘what we don't know, we don't know category', how do we identify it? Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:00:00 -0400 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9098 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9097 The biggest block to our trading success is what I call our ‘default future'.  In our childhood we encounter events to which we develop strategies to enable us to be safe, secure and survive. In time, these strategies become automatic, unconscious responses. To the extent we come from a functional environment, is the extent to which we achieve success - the responses become our strong suits; to the extent we develop dysfunctional responses, is the extent to which we will ‘fail'. By functional, I mean ‘with the ability to deal with reality'. Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:00:00 -0400 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9097 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9096 So Bernie Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in the slammer today. He also delivered one of his now-patented non-repentant repentance speeches in the courtroom. Oh, by the way, his wife Ruth also issued a statement, and she threw him under the bus. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 05:04:47 -0400 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9096 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9095 We are seeing follow-through from last week's Thursday markup and have now recaptured over half of the recent 8% pullback. Amazingly, the VIX lies just north of 25. It has been a long time since we have seen a reading like that, let alone the markup-pause-markup pattern off of a retrace. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 04:30:28 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9095 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9094 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 04:19:12 -0400 ETFs Farrish Files The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9094 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9093 ProShares stepped up their leveraged ETF game last week with the introduction of their first pair of 3x  ETFs.  Many analysts covered this story.  However, a significant part of the story was mostly overlooked - ProShares also stepped up the “disclosure” game. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 04:14:58 -0400 Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9093 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9092 The S&P 500 index remains in a trading range between 875 and 950. This week we look at nine opportunities presented by this trading range. Jim reviews ETFs and stocks that stand to benefit if we break up or down based on specific events. Financials, technology and healthcare will play a key role in the outcome near term. Regardless of continuation to the upside or a 50% retracement of the move off the March low; there are resulting opportunities. Take time to join him on this week’s podcast to put perspective on the outlook for the market. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 03:06:00 -0400 ETF podcasts Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9092 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9091 We've basically reached the midway point of 2009. Granted, we can talk about the resurrection of industrial metals, the resilience of emerging regions and/or the miraculous turnaround for financial stocks off of the March lows.When all is done and said, however, what are the real drivers of asset price appreciation? For the last 6 months, it's all about China. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 02:19:23 -0400 Asia International ETFs Sector ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9091 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9090 The age-old contrast between fundamental and technical analysis was highlighted last week when a reader of a Hard Assets Investor (HardAssetsInvestor.com) interview commented, "I love how commodities investors are focusing on the fundamentals, while people who are currently overweight equities can't shut up about the technicals." Mon, 29 Jun 2009 02:15:58 -0400 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9090 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9089 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 02:01:27 -0400 Agriculture Energy Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9089 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9088 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 01:39:26 -0400 Asia Aussie/NZ Canada Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9088 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9087 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 01:28:32 -0400 Alternative Energy Coal Crude Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9087 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9086 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:56:36 -0400 Economy Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9086 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9085 As Larry Levin pointed out earlier, there is no volume as usual, a perfect opportunity for the SPARCs and the (In)visible hands to wreak havoc with all the shorts, as per the running script. Volume run rated to end silly low. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:51:50 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9085 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9084 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:41:22 -0400 Asia Commodities Crude Economy Emerging Markets Housing Int'l International ETFs Nat Gas Speciality ETFs The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9084 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9083 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:39:48 -0400 Economy Fundamentals Technical Analysis Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9083 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9082 Friday night the Quantifinder identified the below study. I haven't updated it in over a year so I thought it would be interesting to do so. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:18:59 -0400 Sector ETFs Tech Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9082 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9081 The week of 6/22 saw one of the biggest ipo weeks in the past year with 4 deals pricing and opening. the improved market has opened up(at least slightly) the ipo window. A quick glance at the four and a brief preview of this week's lone deal, LOGM. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:18:31 -0400 IPOs The Market Bill Simpsonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9081 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9079 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 11:01:42 -0400 TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9079 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9078 We are still in consolidation and may still be forming the right shoulder of a H&S pattern. No new developments. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 09:57:31 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9078 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9077 You may have noticed that IPOs in China have started up again after a nine month hiatus. The listing of IPOs has both positive and negative implications. On the positive side of the ledger successful IPOs indicate that there is healthy demand for equities. If demand is healthy then there is a better chance for higher prices. The negative to this is that to the extent IPOs are a supply that is created to meet demand, at some point the ratio of supply versus demand will tilt in favor of supply. This was part of the equation that caused the tech bubble and subsequent popping. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 09:35:56 -0400 IPOs Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9077 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9076 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 09:22:49 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9076 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9075 ETF Watchlist 6/29/2009 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 09:14:45 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9075 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9074 This week's chart of the week chart of the week could easily chronicle the recent decline in volatility, but that's a story many pundits have already flogged to within an inch of its life, so it's time for something else. Like volume. The volume story rarely gets the air (electron?) time it deserves, so I have plucked out a chart in hopes of being provocative. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 09:10:24 -0400 Economy Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9074 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9073 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 08:52:47 -0400 Currencies Europe Technical Analysis Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9073 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9072 What role should ETF''s play in the investor toolbox?  Tadas Viskanta did a pretty thorough job of answering this question in a survey article last week.  Anyone interested in ETF investing should read the entire piece carefully.  It is very valuable.  (We are delighted to see this new dimension in articles from Abnormal Returns, one of our favorite sites). Mon, 29 Jun 2009 01:23:46 -0400 Broad Market ETFs Economy Education International ETFs Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9072 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9071 A major result of last year's credit storm is a lingering sense of dread and foreboding among investors.  Many are waiting for the proverbial "other shoe to drop" as the memories of last year's crisis, and its attendant economic effects, are still fresh in mind. Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:37:25 -0400 Economy Politics Clif Drokehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9071 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9070 Sun, 28 Jun 2009 07:39:37 -0400 Broad Market ETFs Earnings Economy International ETFs Sector ETFs Technical Analysis Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9070 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9069 A personal thanks to the over 350 people (and growing... Zero Hedge record) who have taken the time to share their thoughts on the Paging the SEC post. Sun, 28 Jun 2009 02:59:38 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9069 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9068 This is the fourth contribution to the MarketSci Blog from Andrey S. of Russia (along with the trading nuggets here, here, and here). Sun, 28 Jun 2009 01:49:10 -0400 Emerging Markets Technical Analysis Michael Stokeshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9068 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9067 Just a little housekeeping. This is a roundup of our recent posts talking about the Golden Cross (aka 50/200-day moving average crossovers). >> Moving Average Crossovers Debunked? Our original (long ago) post on 50/200-day (and 10/50-day) moving average crossovers. Sat, 27 Jun 2009 02:13:10 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Michael Stokeshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9067 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9066 Sat, 27 Jun 2009 02:08:57 -0400 Economy Technical Analysis Bob Langhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9066 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9065 This week Jerry covers the markets strength and the great opportunity for low risk trading in the market today if you use stop losses.  He discusses the historical significance of the Golden Cross which occurred last week on the S&P 500.  Tune into Next Week on Wall Street to become a better investor today. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 08:08:53 -0400 Home Page Video Jerry Slusiewiczhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9065 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9064 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 05:23:26 -0400 Speciality ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9064 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9062 Since Fridays are days in which recent VIX lows are often tested, I thought this might be a good time to step back from the typical VIX daily chart and look at a weekly chart. In the chart below, I have elected to go back to the beginning of 2006 to capture the details of what was arguably the lowest volatility year on record so it could be compared with the most volatile year we have witnessed, 2008. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 03:11:43 -0400 Technical Analysis Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9062 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9060 One day we'll look back on 2009 and wonder what all the confusion was about. All will become clear and we'll know when the recession ended, when the bull market began anew and how and why the cycle turned. Meanwhile, we're wondering if the data du jour can be trusted. Judging by the numbers of late, clarity is upon us, or so it seems. Income and spending are up among consumers. What's not to like? If this keeps up, we'll be back to the good old days by, oh, let's say the third week of September. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 02:41:34 -0400 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9060 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9059 Since FINRA and the Securities and Exchange Commission believe in going only after $1,000 insider traders with the full weight of their enforcement teams, yet ignore major market manipulation in futures and other markets, Zero Hedge wanted to present readers an opportunity to be heard by the market's regulators. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 02:31:57 -0400 Economy Technical Analysis Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9059 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9058 On June 25th, Michael Pento appeared on CNBC Reports to discuss whether the recession is over or not. To learn more on CNBC Reports, click here Fri, 26 Jun 2009 02:29:39 -0400 Home Page Video Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9058 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9056 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.5% Two weeks ago, we pondered the odds of further gasoline price hikes (see "Playing The One-Armed Bandit Gas Pump"). In a nutshell, the odds then seemed long for much more upward momentum in gasoline prices. We, in fact, gauged the probability of a dime increase in the price of petrol by month's end at only 33.3%. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 02:25:22 -0400 Crude Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9056 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9055 I am going to list some charts below of stocks that are on an incredible runs right now... basically the most '45 degree' angle like structure on the chart, without a lot of "gap ups" or "spiky" action. The market overall is really just a hodge podge mess, going nowhere for 2 months - but some action as always is happening under the surface. To clear out penny stocks or just daytrader specials, these all have at least 200K in volume on average, and a market cap over $300M. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 02:13:27 -0400 TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9055 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9054 Indonesia appears to have quite a lot going for it. The multi-island nation has a balanced budget, a trade surplus, attractive interest rates for carry trade investors, 3.5% GDP growth for 2009 and future GDP growth expectations that are rivaled only by China and India. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 01:58:40 -0400 Emerging Markets International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9054 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9053 Per reader request, let’s take a look at the current movement and structure in the EEM Emerging Markets ETF and see a possible fractal Elliott count as well as simple support and resistance levels to watch. Notice first that the EEM (MSCI Emerging Markets) bottomed ahead of the US S&P 500 and has rallied stronger than the US (S&P was up roughly 40% while EEM peaked at roughly a 75% increase). Fri, 26 Jun 2009 01:05:52 -0400 Emerging Markets International ETFs Technical Analysis Traders' Talk EEM Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9053 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9052 Despite gold and silver consolidating in June, investment demand for these precious metals remains robust.  This is evidenced by continuing growth in the bullion holdings of the leading precious-metals exchange-traded funds.  Both GLD's and SLV's physical metals held in trust for investors have edged up to new all-time record highs this month! Fri, 26 Jun 2009 01:05:32 -0400 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Adam Hamiltonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9052 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9049 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 12:54:36 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9049 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9047 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 12:32:22 -0400 Financials Technical Analysis The Market Traders' Talk David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9047 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9046 I began covering Chile in May of 2007, even in the absence of a corresponding exchange-traded fund. The Latin American country was/is a dominant player in the export of copper. What's more, it's GDP growth was as strong as any in the region. And its budget was essentially in check. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 12:07:25 -0400 Emerging Markets International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9046 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9044 Rates on the 10 year Treasury bond hit 3.5% breaking below support. This move is bullish for the bond short term. Two ETFs to watch in relation to the move in rates lower is iShares 7-10 Yr Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: IEF) and iShares 3-7 Yr Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: IEI). Each will move in proportion to the decline in yield. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:59:27 -0400 Bonds Farrish Files The Market IEF Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9044 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9043 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:28:48 -0400 Economy TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9043 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9042 A lot of noise has been made of late about levered and inverse ETFs. There has always been controversy surrounding them but it seems like the rhetoric has kicked it up a notch in light of the recent Finra warning that pretty much says to run screaming from the room with your arms flailing in the air.ProShares dominates the 2X space, Direxion dominates the 3X and ProShares now has 3X for the S&P 500. 3X long has symbol UPRO and 3X short has symbol SPXU. My take on this has not really changed since the ProShares funds first came out a few years ago. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:22:42 -0400 Roger's World Speciality ETFs Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9042 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9041 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:18:53 -0400 Asia Economy Europe International ETFs Technical Analysis David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9041 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9040 ETF Watchlist 06/26/09 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 10:06:01 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9040 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9038 Most sources -- even big-time media types -- provide no guidance about sources of information from the federal government.  There is a a useful advantage in knowing more.We realize that there are many who reject any government information.  Here at "A Dash" we believe that this is an extreme viewpoint, and provides an opportunity for a trading advantage. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:54:34 -0400 Economy Politics Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9038 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9037 Total Federal Reserve balance sheet assets for the week of June 24 of $2,048 billion consisting of: Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:52:57 -0400 Economy Technical Analysis Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9037 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9036 Last post on the subject of golden crosses (aka 50/200-day moving average crossovers). Unfamiliar with the golden cross? Read our take on the cross, about its two flavors (SMA and EMA) and crosses in up vs downtrending markets. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:46:45 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Michael Stokeshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9036 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9035 The VIX closed at 26.36 today, down 15.4% from Monday's close of 31.17 to the lowest closing level since the 25.66 close on September 12, 2008 - the last trading day before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy was announced. According to the classic 10 day simple moving average measure, which has the VIX currently sitting 11.7% below that level, the VIX is now in an ‘oversold' position according to the TradingMarkets 5% Rule as well as a more stringent 10% threshold used by other traders. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:41:43 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9035 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9034 Traders continued to sell U.S. dollars this morning as stronger Chinese PMI numbers fueled hopes that Asia will contribute to the global recovery. U.S. data helps the recovery thesis, but we all know that any recovery will not feel like one for months. The big surprise in U.S. data was personal income report which rose 1.4 percent with an upward revision to 0.7 percent for the previous month. Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:37:34 -0400 Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9034 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9033 Below is a study that has been shown a few times in the Subscriber Letter. It popped up last night via the Quantifinder. It looks at what happens when two days of strong breadth fail to take the SPX to a new 10-day intraday high. I've re-run the stats and posted them below.(click table to enlarge) Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:32:51 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPX Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9033 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9032 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:28:04 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9032 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9031 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:26:27 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9031 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9030 Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:18:28 -0400 Economy Financials Financials Options Politics The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9030 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9029 $216,826: The Cost of Not Using This Strategy—So Far. "I've seen a lot of investment methodologies in my career,but never one as disciplined or impressive as this system." Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:14:45 -0400 Premium Service Jim Slaglehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9029 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9027 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 07:44:10 -0400 Premium Newsletter Jim Slaglehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9027 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9021 The Federal Reserve's policy statement yesterday elicited a strong King Dollar reaction with its mild dose of hawkishness, which I applaud. I’m reading the Fed positively here. There was no announcement of any new debt monetization via Treasury purchases, a slightly more positive economic view, and an end to deflation worries. This all to the good. The result was a stronger dollar in world currency markets. King Dollar. This is very good. Thu, 25 Jun 2009 04:18:42 -0400 Currencies Economy Technical Analysis Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9021 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9020 Whatever your investing experience and whatever your skill level, it's important to be mindful of the characteristics that can help you succeed. Nobody's perfect, but by focusing on those areas for improvement and continually striving to do better and stay educated, you might find yourself approaching your investments in a more logical and measured way, which can help lead to success. Here are 11 characteristics successful investors tend to have in common: Thu, 25 Jun 2009 04:17:56 -0400 Education ETFs Personal Finance Tom Lydonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9020 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9017 It's one thing to pursue a tax-free income stream from undervalued munis, particularly at the Federal level. After all, the U.S. government has the ability to print money to pay muni debt investors. Not surprisingly, Powershares Insured National Muni (NYSE: PZA) has been one of the bond market's stellar stand-outs in 2009 with 5% YTD tax-free appreciation alongside steady interest payments. Thu, 25 Jun 2009 04:12:08 -0400 Bonds Speciality ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9017 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9016 This morning's price action gave us an ideal, if not perfect, example of how to trade a "Bull Flag" price pattern.  Let's take a look at the 5-min SPY and learn how to trade this powerful set-up.    Thu, 25 Jun 2009 02:31:01 -0400 Education Technical Analysis SPY Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9016 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9015 About a month ago, we looked at Year to Date Returns by Country [May 20: YTD Returns by Country, Go Peru!] Many of those top performers have since come back to Earth; in fact as we noted Russia is by "official definition" back in a bear market as its >20% off its high (I find this nomenclature system nonsense). Russia was #2 in the world behind Peru YTD at the time of the May posting... Thu, 25 Jun 2009 01:37:37 -0400 Asia TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9015 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9014 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 01:34:52 -0400 New Home Page - 300x250px http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9014 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9013 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.4% Wanna make a quick half-cent? Then take a look at October sugar. Flagging production out of India has worried traders so much this year they've bid prices up more than 30%. India, in fact, looks likely to end up importing as much as one million tons of the white stuff to the great benefit of Brazilian producers. Thu, 25 Jun 2009 01:25:07 -0400 Agriculture Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9013 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9012 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 01:09:11 -0400 Economy Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9012 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9011 Right out the gates, equities quickly recovered on improved GDP readings after the small initial jobless claims gap lower. We have not looked back since for a strong markup right up to R2 on the SPY and QQQQ, which is proving stronger resistance for now. Meanwhile, Cumulative Tick, Advancers - Decliners and Up Volume remain very strong and up trending with the VIX near 27. I'll be keeping a close eye on those indicators throughout the day for signals to re-hedge, if warranted. Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:54:54 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPY QQQQ Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9011 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9010 They are not ETFs.  They are not ETNs.  They are MacroShares, and after today, they are gone.  Bye-bye MacroShares. Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:53:32 -0400 Crude Sector ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9010 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9009 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:46:37 -0400 Skyscraper - 160x600 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9009 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9008 A few days ago iShares listed the iShares All Peru Capped Index Fund (NYSE: EPU). It was one of two Peru ETFs in registration. The other is from GlobalX which currently only has one fund trading which is the Interbolsa FTSE Colombia 20 ETF (NYSE: GXG). GlobalX has also filed for ETFs covering Argentina, Egypt and the Philippines. Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:45:50 -0400 International ETFs New ETFs Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9008 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9006 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:40:48 -0400 Article Detail Page 275x229 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9006 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9005 Duoyuan Global Water (NYSE: DGW) - plans on offering 5 million ADS at a range of $13-$15. The offering will be 5.75 million ADS if the over-allotment is exercised. Piper Jaffray is leading the deal, Oppenhemier and Janney Montgomery co-managing. Post-ipo, DGW will have 21.3 million ADS equivalent shares outstanding for a market cap of $298.2 million on a pricing of $14. IPO proceeds will be used to build and upgrade manufacturing facilities and production lines as well as R&D. 　 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:24:29 -0400 Asia IPOs The Market Water Bill Simpsonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9005 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9002 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 11:49:59 -0400 Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9002 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9001 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 10:34:26 -0400 TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9001 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9000 The USD/CHF moves below the support area for the pair.  Support at 1.0975 and 1.0970 gave way and the market scooted lower.  The threat of intervention remains but the market is more intent on dollar selling at the moment as the Senate hearing weighs on the potential stability of the Fed.  The opening remarks suggest a heated discussion is likely. Thu, 25 Jun 2009 10:27:08 -0400 Asia Currencies Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/9000 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8999 First off an apology: I wrote my piece late last night - actually early this morning - and with preparing for FOMC and attending to the new Forum/Twitter Service, I overlooked clicking the ‘Publish' icon. As a result, my "Unconscious Motivators III' has been delayed by 24 hours. Today I want to focus on a pattern that is reasonably reliably for FOMC rate decision announcements. Last night it again proved its worth. "Wait around 10 minutes after the announcement before putting on a trade - only then does the ‘true direction' reveal itself" Thu, 25 Jun 2009 10:23:33 -0400 Education Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8999 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8998 Here is a very well written article about China's predicament with the U.S. dollar and explains why they won't be talking down the dollar anytime soon: From the Weekly Standard The Dollar's New Best Friend Beijing warms up to the greenback-because it has to. by Gordon G. Chang Thu, 25 Jun 2009 10:20:47 -0400 Asia Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8998 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8997 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 10:18:55 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8997 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8996 ETF Watchlist for 6/25/2009 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 08:26:27 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8996 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8994 Thu, 25 Jun 2009 02:27:58 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8994 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8993 In a semi-free country such as the US there are two prerequisites for a peace-time economic depression, where a depression is defined as a period of 5-10 years or longer of economic stagnation or outright contraction. The first is a massive expansion of credit based on fractional reserve banking (supported, nowadays, by a powerful central bank), and the second is a far-reaching attempt by the government to prevent the corrective process from running its natural course after the credit bubble has burst. Thu, 25 Jun 2009 01:33:27 -0400 Economy Steve Savillehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8993 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8992 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 08:33:04 -0400 Education Personal Finance Technical Analysis The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8992 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8991 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 06:45:52 -0400 Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8991 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8990 Both the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: EEM) and the Vanguard Emerging Markets Fund (NYSE: VWO) track the same index... the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. These 2 funds in the U.S. alone account for $40 billion in assets; each ranks in the top 20 of all U.S.-based exchange-traded funds. Wed, 24 Jun 2009 05:58:29 -0400 International ETFs Technical Analysis EEM VWO Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8990 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8989 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 05:44:26 -0400 Economy David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8989 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8987 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 03:43:11 -0400 Software Tech The Market Traders' Talk David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8987 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8986 A few weeks ago, I wrote the post "Volume Surge in (NYSE: UNG) Natural Gas" which became a popular post and a few readers have asked me to follow-up on UNG and comment on the Triangle Pattern Breakout that is occurring.  Let's update the analysis and take a look. Wed, 24 Jun 2009 03:17:30 -0400 Nat Gas Sector ETFs Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8986 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8985 All of a sudden people have become increasingly gloomy over the stock market and economy—sort of like buyer’s remorse over the whole budding recovery scenario. I’d like to try and defend the recovery. Here are a few recent significant data points worth paying attention to. Let’s start with today’s better-than-expected durable goods report. Wed, 24 Jun 2009 03:13:58 -0400 Economy US REITs Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8985 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8979 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.3% By the way traders took crude oil down $1.23 a barrel, or 1.8%, this week, you'd think there was too much oil sloshing about. Analysts, though, were looking for commercial inventories to decline by 1.3 million barrels. U.S. Energy Department data showed the week's actual drawdown - 3.8 million barrels - matched the previous week's off-take. At 353.9 million barrels, supplies are still above the average range for this time of year. Wed, 24 Jun 2009 02:55:28 -0400 Crude Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8979 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8978 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 02:53:06 -0400 Economy Jim Welshhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8978 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8977 Having spent years in Southeast Asia, I learned a thing or three about Mandarin Chinese. For instance, the word for crisis is "wei ji." Although some native speakers deny it, "wei ji" actually comes from combining the word for danger (wei xian) and the word for opportunity (ji huay). Wed, 24 Jun 2009 02:42:29 -0400 Asia Emerging Markets International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8977 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8976 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 01:38:35 -0400 Education Options Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8976 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8975 The Advance - Decline line is very, very strong today with Up Volume far outpacing Down. Tick is net strong on a cumulative basis, even though it has trailed down a bit as the S&P500 has pulled back to the VWAP ahead of the FOMC Statement, which will be found here. Stop back later for a red line comparison with the April Statement. Wed, 24 Jun 2009 01:35:21 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8975 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8974 Sooner or later, I feel I needed to share my thoughts about Twitter; since I have added some 1,000 or so followers in the past few days, this seems like a good time as any to speak up. Wed, 24 Jun 2009 01:00:21 -0400 Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8974 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8973 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 12:22:50 -0400 Asia Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8973 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8972 Deja vu all over again: failed green shoot, no volume, high beta break out, one or two brokers gunning the SPY (here's looking at you 85 Broad): the tried and true script over the past 3 months seems to have a little life left in it still, with all rational cash players sitting on the sidelines as always, doing Starbucks breaks every hour and waiting for the release of RenTec's results indicating Medallion made double the combined negative "return" of REIF and RIFF (and JPM torn between trading for the latter and its own Highbridge).Click images to enlarge: Wed, 24 Jun 2009 12:04:58 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk JPM SPY Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8972 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8971 The other day I wrote a blog post about the difference between being speculative and being reckless. The context was in response to Jack Bogle making the rounds and referring to everything except owning broad based index funds as being speculative. Seeking Alpha then re-ran the post and an interesting line of thought emerged in the comments there from a couple of different people. Wed, 24 Jun 2009 11:09:57 -0400 Education Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8971 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8970 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 10:56:39 -0400 Earnings TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8970 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8969 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 09:32:42 -0400 Asia Currencies Economy Europe Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8969 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8968 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 09:29:16 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8968 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8967 Originally published in the blog on 9/11/2008, the Quantifinder noted the below breadth-based study for Tuesday's close. I re-ran it in last night's Subscriber Letter and have updated it below. (Note: Up Volume % is tracked in the members chart area each night. It is equal to (Up volume / (Up volume + down volume). click table to enlarge Wed, 24 Jun 2009 09:25:09 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8967 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8966 ETF Watchlist 6/24/2009 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 08:41:28 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8966 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8964 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 08:32:48 -0400 Farrish Files Semiconductors Tech The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8964 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8963 Investors face some important decisions.  For those approaching retirement it is a crucial time.There is plenty of advice.  The television commercials, blogs, and email messages include a variety of appeals: Wed, 24 Jun 2009 02:54:16 -0400 Economy Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8963 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8962 Today's action depends entirely on the FOMC's announcement. The market will spike up or down intra-day and you will have only minutes, if not seconds to act. It is imperative that you have your watch lists (long and short) prepared and ready to go.I am still leaning towards the bearish side, despite the fact that I remain in 100% cash. I took a poll a few hours ago asking traders how the market will act today, and here are the results: Wed, 24 Jun 2009 02:51:55 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8962 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8961 A lot of chatter about the stock market's upcoming golden cross has focused on whether the Dow Jones Transportation Index (DJT) is confirming a bullish trend. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 09:43:36 -0400 Education Technical Analysis Michael Stokeshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8961 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8960 I am definitely NOT psychic. What's more, I make plenty of bad investing "calls." Nevertheless, when I've been wrong, I quickly minimize the down side with unemotional stop-losses; that is, I sell to keep the losses minor. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 07:31:58 -0400 Broad Market ETFs Economy Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8960 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8959 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 04:03:44 -0400 Options Traders' Talk Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8959 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8958 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 03:33:16 -0400 Builders Economy TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8958 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8954 In a recent column, I gushed enthusiastically about the stock market as if it was on a one-way trip higher. It's an old truism that such predictions are usually the sign of a top, and it looks like this time the joke was on me. Regardless of what stocks do now, I was too positive at the time. Wed, 24 Jun 2009 01:02:05 -0400 Technical Analysis David Russellhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8954 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8952 I had high hopes for this one... honest. I really want to believe that I can gain access to a rapidly expanding Latin American economy that has a superb bond rating. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:49:44 -0400 International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8952 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8951 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:16:42 -0400 Economy Fundamentals Technical Analysis Jim Welshhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8951 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8950 After a follow through slide into the first half of the morning, the markets rejected the move as overshoot and began to rise, now well above VWAP. Most indicators are running sideways though we just now put in new tick highs and the A-D line continues to recover to the upside. It seems that alot will be hanging on the FOMC statement tomorrow. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:56:13 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8950 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8949 As Obama speaks and investors recall what it was like to short the market at every TV appearance of the president, the dollar is getting pillaged: the DXY just dropped below the 80 support level after Europe has said it will start tightening soon. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:49:21 -0400 Currencies Precious Metals Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8949 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8946 Mortgage - 10 Yr UST spread is not helping the new, existing, and otherwise home sale green shoots. And this on top of the Treasury's $7 billion in Open Market purchases of bonds yesterday. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:31:35 -0400 Bonds Housing Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8946 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8945 Real-Time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.4% There's an end for every party, a time for the lampshade-hatted to call it a night and head home. Some observers think yesterday may have been just that for commodity stocks, at least relative to commodities themselves.The World Bank's pronunciamento of a 2.9% shrinkage in the global economy sent markets tumbling Monday. Commodities such as metals and oil got whacked. Equities got whacked. Commodity stocks got double-whacked. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:58:13 -0400 Agriculture Commodities Precious Metals Sector ETFs Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8945 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8944 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:55:31 -0400 Education Roger's World The Market Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8944 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8943 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:29:34 -0400 Currencies Economy Europe Housing Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8943 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8942 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 10:01:21 -0400 Economy Financials Fundamentals Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8942 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8941 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 09:47:01 -0400 Fundamentals Personal Finance Technical Analysis The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8941 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8940 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 09:38:58 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8940 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8939 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 09:32:51 -0400 Education Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8939 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8938 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 09:26:05 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8938 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8937 ETF Watchlist 06/23/2009 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 08:33:45 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8937 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8935 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 08:24:54 -0400 Economy Farrish Files The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8935 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8934 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:23:17 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8934 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8933 The insatiable hunger for stories motivates financial media.  At the first hint of a new development the process begins -- hard news, analysis, critics, and long-term effects.  The cycle is so fast that we sometimes get the criticism before most have digested the original news.This is the nature of a highly competitive news environment where everyone wants to get a scoop.  It is completely understandable both for mainstream media and for bloggers who all want to weigh in on the story of the day. Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:21:30 -0400 Economy Politics Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8933 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8932 German business confidence improved marginally which should have been bullish for the euro, but unfortunately the most actively traded currency pair in the forex market has remained under pressure throughout the European and U.S. trading sessions. So if the EUR/USD is not responding to economic data then what is driving it lower? Five factors: 1. U.S. Treasury Auction Mon, 22 Jun 2009 07:22:47 -0400 Currencies Economy Europe Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8932 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8931 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 07:00:19 -0400 Builders TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8931 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8930 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 06:57:58 -0400 Agriculture Asia Aussie/NZ Bonds Broad Market ETFs Crude Currencies Emerging Markets Energy Europe Financials Hardware International ETFs Nat Gas Precious Metals Sector ETFs Software Technical Analysis US REITs David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8930 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8929 As I write this today (Monday, June 22), the market is quite weak on a very broad basis, with only the Utilities sector in positive territory. Last week, virtually every style/cap component of the market was down about 3%. Mid-cap did the worst (down 3.6%) and large-cap growth did the best, but everything was down more than 2%. As the market continues its meandering path toward major support, is a tradable bounce in our near future? Mon, 22 Jun 2009 06:49:57 -0400 Energy Financials Technical Analysis Telecom David Brownhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8929 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8928 We spent Father's Day at my in-laws. My father-in-law actively trades and a lot of what he does is pairs trading. He's been getting more involved with pairs lately and comes up with some crazy ones. He does some testing on the computer but a lot of his testing is done "old school" with a pen and paper. Mon, 22 Jun 2009 06:35:22 -0400 ETFs Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8928 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8923 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 03:13:00 -0400 Broad Market ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8923 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8922 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 06:11:37 -0400 Emerging Markets International ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8922 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8921 Well that didn't last long. Less than two weeks ago, each of the 10 major sector ETFs of the U.S. economy had climbed above the almighty 200-day moving average. Some folks viewed the activity as confirmation of a new, bull market uptrend. Of course, when technical data doesn't quite work as anticipated, these analysts have an "easy out." When an upswing is short-lived, it's simply referred to as a "whipsaw." (Nobody seems to say... oooppps, the charts were wrong; rather, we experienced a little "whipsaw.") Mon, 22 Jun 2009 06:06:14 -0400 Energy Sector ETFs Telecom Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8921 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8920 The 50 DMA and 200 DMA are about to collide. What next? Mon, 22 Jun 2009 04:43:17 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8920 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8917 You'd have thought that the 2000-2002 bear that ravaged portfolios in the first half of the decade would have stifled buy-n-hold, asset allocation advocates. Alas... "simpleton" journalists and "commission-based, keep-your-assets" advisers continued to push the ridiculous notion that you refrain from selling. Mon, 22 Jun 2009 03:10:03 -0400 Bonds Sector ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8917 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8916 Committed short-selling (50% allocation or more) will commence within 26 hours. Mon, 22 Jun 2009 02:20:32 -0400 The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8916 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8915 Another former Fed club member weighs in today on how/when/if the Fed unwinds the massive monetary stimulus it's created over the past year. Frederic Mishkin, a former FOMC member, summarizes the problem and the potential in today's Wall Street Journal, observing that there's good news and bad news embedded in the recent rise in long-term interest rates: Mon, 22 Jun 2009 01:03:04 -0400 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8915 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8914 Volatility Tracker for June 22, 2009 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 12:55:47 -0400 Options Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8914 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8913 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.4% Is the sun setting on copper's rally? You'd certainly think so, judging from the market's reaction to today's report of record Chinese imports.Beijing imported nearly 742 million pounds of refined copper in May, 6% more than April's then-record-high intake. Still, because actual consumption slowed, many traders are looking at the import numbers as a peak in annual demand for the red metal. Mon, 22 Jun 2009 12:52:51 -0400 Base Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8913 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8912 Equities have been hit hard today with nary a bounce and the S&P 500 broke through its 50-day moving average like it wasn't even there, which is now right at the apex of a cross with the 200-day. Here is some reading on that statistic by Michael Stokes at MarketSci. Internals look equally bad, although price has apparently stabilized just above SPX 890 during the last hour. We may yet see a bounce here, but I'm always wary of trying to fade trend days. Mon, 22 Jun 2009 12:49:04 -0400 Technical Analysis SPX Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8912 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8911 We were recently asked by a client, "If you see signs of a possible new bull market, why are we still sitting on so much cash?" It can be answered by using a fence analogy. We have been taking some smaller positions while maintaining a relatively high cash position in order to play both sides of the fence: Mon, 22 Jun 2009 12:34:05 -0400 Technical Analysis Chris Ciovaccohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8911 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8910 Does the Obama administration really want to grant a virtual dictatorship to the Federal Reserve on monetary policy and banking oversight and regulation? The Fed already has enough trouble figuring out monetary policy. So this business about the central bank engaging in systemic-risk regulation and all the accompanying regulatory bells and whistles makes no sense. Mon, 22 Jun 2009 12:23:33 -0400 Economy Politics Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8910 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8908 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 12:11:07 -0400 Agriculture Currencies Precious Metals Technical Analysis Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8908 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8907 One question you may read every now and then is whether the US is headed into a lost decade like Japan. Then this morning I saw somewhere a commentary about Japan being in its second lost decade. Japan has been in a funk suffering from elements of deflation, too much savings, failure to take writedowns and the seemingly endless lack of economic health. Mon, 22 Jun 2009 12:07:23 -0400 Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8907 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8906 It absolutely amazes me how sanguine the Fed, Treasury and Administration are about the prospects for subdued inflation. What they and many economists like to point to as the source of their optimism is the high rate of unemployment, which is currently 9.4%. But the truth is that inflation actually causes higher rates of unemployment, while it is false to believe that inflation can be prevented by a labor slack in the economy.To prove this point, I would like you to observe the following two charts:  Mon, 22 Jun 2009 12:04:04 -0400 Economy Technical Analysis Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8906 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8904 In the Psychological Capital newsletter this morning, I asked the question "what is the most direct indicator of other traders"? The answers I got surprised me. Most people said "themselves". The  second answer was "price." I was looking for volume. Mon, 22 Jun 2009 11:48:22 -0400 Education Traders' Talk Denise Shullhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8904 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8903 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 11:42:33 -0400 Asia Canada Currencies Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8903 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8902 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 11:01:17 -0400 Commodities TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8902 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8901 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 09:53:41 -0400 Broad Market ETFs Earnings Economy International ETFs Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8901 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8900 Given the tremendous advancement in understanding how our brain works and the role of emotion, I'd have expected that the ratio of successful traders to unsuccessful traders would have improved since I started trading over 30 years ago. But, looking at the figures, the ratio remains the same - 80% to 90% are long-term losers. And this, despite the fact we went through one of the most sustained bull markets in stocks, gold, and crude oil. That environment should be conducive to trading success but this had not proven to be the case. Mon, 22 Jun 2009 09:43:26 -0400 Education Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8900 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8899 At "A Dash" we believe that there is always a bull market somewhere.  Jim Cramer has made the statement famous, but it has always been the guiding concept for those following a sector rotation strategy. Mon, 22 Jun 2009 09:36:58 -0400 Broad Market ETFs Economy International ETFs Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8899 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8898 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 09:33:36 -0400 Currencies Economy Europe Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8898 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8897 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 09:22:48 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8897 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8896 ETF Watchlist 06/22/2009 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 09:15:48 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8896 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8895 One thing that I watch closely is the health of the finances of the states.  Because they don't have a printing press, and most of them have to balance their budgets, they are a better read on the health of the economy than national statistics. Mon, 22 Jun 2009 09:14:45 -0400 Economy David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8895 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8894 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 09:06:26 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8894 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8893 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 09:01:28 -0400 ETF podcasts Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8893 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8892 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 08:56:36 -0400 ETFs Farrish Files Semiconductors The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8892 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8891 In the last few weeks, stocks have struggled to add to recent gains, suffering even more from a lack of buying interest than from selling pressure. Sun, 21 Jun 2009 03:42:52 -0400 Technical Analysis Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8891 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8890 I received an e-mail from a concerned reader. He said, "Why would anyone invest in a currency? Aren't they exceptionally volatile? Couldn't they collapse or become worthless?" The idea that currencies are volatile comes from a number of currency crises in the past. There have been times when the Russian rubble or Thai baht or other emerging country's paper has completely collapsed. However, developed markets from Australia to New Zealand to France to Canada haven't been regarded as reckless paper printers. Sun, 21 Jun 2009 12:39:10 -0400 Aussie/NZ Currencies Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8890 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8889 FXDD Today and Tomorrow, Weekend Edition is now available for download.  The concise one day report, gives a snap shot of the market near the close of trading.  It also gives a picture of the trend of the major economic releases due out over the next week.  To access the report click on the following link:   FXDD Today and Tommorow Weekend Edition (63.9 KiB, 193 hits) Sun, 21 Jun 2009 12:16:01 -0400 Currencies Economy Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8889 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8888 It may come as a surprise coming from someone who does what I do, but I am (intellectually) in love with John Bogle. Sat, 20 Jun 2009 11:38:28 -0400 Education Fundamentals Personal Finance Technical Analysis Michael Stokeshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8888 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8887 Often when we talk about the Fed, we talk about a dual mandate - low inflation, and low labor unemployment.  But as I suggested at RealMoney many times, there is a hidden third mandate: protect the integrity of the banking system. Sat, 20 Jun 2009 11:55:03 -0400 Economy David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8887 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8886 The stock market's upcoming golden cross (AKA 50/200-day MA crossover) looks like it will be of the rarer variety: the downtrending cross. Unfamiliar with the golden cross? Read our take on the strategy and its two flavors (SMA and EMA). Sat, 20 Jun 2009 11:51:37 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Michael Stokeshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8886 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8885 Sat, 20 Jun 2009 11:46:57 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8885 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8884 Sun, 21 Jun 2009 01:00:53 -0400 Economy Technical Analysis Bob Langhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8884 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8882 Well, the "for broke" part is hopefully a pun. But based on their most recent holdings, which among others include 104% of the IYR Real Estate ETF, Credit Suisse is certainly ploying something here (one hopes, or else that is one big fat finger). When you have the balance sheet of the Swiss National Bank to back you up, you don't really care much if you overload the boat. Of course, this is excatly what Boaz Weinstein was thinking when the world blew up in his face. Fri, 19 Jun 2009 02:22:39 -0400 ETFs IYR Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8882 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8881 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.3% It's been a pretty dull year for inflation. Oh, don't get me wrong, prices for some commodities have risen. Take crude oil for example. Black gold's up 69% year-to-date. Broadly, however, commodity prices have ticked up only modestly. The Reuters Continuous Commodity Index, an equal-weighted amalgam of 17 commodities including crude oil, has barely managed a 6% return this year. Fri, 19 Jun 2009 01:45:17 -0400 Commodities Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8881 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8880 With the VIX now getting comfortable in the 20s, there has been a fair amount of discussion about just how low we can expect the VIX to go in the next few months. Back in April, in The New VIX Macro Cycle Picture, I predicted that the VIX will likely not drop below the 25-27 area in the current bull market. That prediction has held up so far, but will almost certainly be tested during the summer months. Fri, 19 Jun 2009 01:40:22 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8880 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8879 The morning expiry trade provided some serious directional volatility both ways, making for very clean and profitable day-trading on the S&P500 contracts. Just now, the SPY slide has been arrested by the flattish five-day moving average on volume, with Cumulative Tick and the Advance - Decline lines attempting to repair damage. Interestingly, Up Volume continues to outpace as well, and -- as suggested by today's title -- we once again have substantive index variations with NASDAQ100/ QQQQs leading strongly this go even as the SPYs are underwater. Fri, 19 Jun 2009 01:26:38 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPY Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8879 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8878 In my ongoing analysis of ETFs, I segregate new ETFs (ETF IPOs) into their own category.  Then, at the end of every month, those that have reached an age of six months or more are moved into my mainstream categories (sector, international, bond, etc.). Fri, 19 Jun 2009 01:24:35 -0400 New ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8878 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8877 Per multiple reader request, I’m providing the “bigger picture” backdrop against which to classify past and possibly future price structure in the S&P 500.  Let’s take a look at one of the most mainstream Elliott Wave counts and projections on the S&P 500 Index (monthly). (click for full-size image) Fri, 19 Jun 2009 01:00:13 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8877 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8876 Silver has endured a rather tough June so far.  After peaking just under $16 on the 2nd, this white precious metal plunged 12% to just over $14 by the 15th.  This is certainly a significant decline for less than 2 weeks, so silver traders are anxiously wondering what it portends.  Will silver languish in the summer doldrums again this year? Fri, 19 Jun 2009 12:37:32 -0400 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Adam Hamiltonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8876 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8873 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 12:19:19 -0400 Commodities Economy Hardware Nat Gas Tech Traders' Talk David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8873 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8872 One relationship I've been watching lately is the S&P vs. the US dollar. To illustrate the relationship I've created a chart below. In red is the closing prices of the S&P 500. The blue is closing prices of UNP, which is the US Dollar Bearish Fund ETF.  Fri, 19 Jun 2009 11:02:23 -0400 Currencies Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8872 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8871 There has been a theme circulating this week in various places of John Bogle dumping all over ETFs as tools of speculation. He has some very specific ideas about why broad based index funds are the only way to go, narrow based funds promote speculation and that investors are doing worse than their funds due to poor, speculative decisions. Fri, 19 Jun 2009 09:55:04 -0400 Broad Market ETFs International ETFs New ETFs Roger's World Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8871 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8870 I started trading in the early '70s  to mid '70s. Looking back I can see the great strides made in the understanding of the human psyche - how we make decisions, what drives us,  etc; we have also made great strides in our ability to test our trading theories. But despite the great improvements, this generation's success rate is no different to that of the '70s: 80% to 90% of traders are unprofitable over a large sample size. Fri, 19 Jun 2009 09:33:12 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8870 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8869 There are no U.S. economic reports today but that does not mean that we wont have some interesting volatility in the financial markets. Quite the contrary as we have Quad or Quadruple Witching on the calendar. Quadruple witching only occurs four times a year - on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. Fri, 19 Jun 2009 09:30:40 -0400 Currencies Economy Europe Options Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8869 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8868 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 09:26:47 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8868 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8867 There's a lot of chatter right now about the upcoming "Golden Cross" in the stock market. A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses over the 200-day moving average, and to some technicians signals the start of a bullish bias in the market. Read our own take on the golden cross. Fri, 19 Jun 2009 09:23:38 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Michael Stokeshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8867 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8866 No new developments in the market. I warn you that I expect major whipsaw on both the intra-day and daily time frames for the next several days/weeks. Don't play games with the market here, since you are guaranteed to lose. Fri, 19 Jun 2009 09:20:18 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8866 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8865 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 09:03:08 -0400 ETFs Farrish Files The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8865 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8864 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 08:42:02 -0400 Emerging Markets TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8864 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8863 When we look at arbitrary calendar periods such as YTD 2009, we have a tendency to kid ourselves. We can get quite excited... irrationally enthusiastic, if you will. For example, Vanguard Emerging Markets (NYSE: VWO) and iShares Emerging Markets (NYSE: EEM) have gained 35% in less than 6 months. Just 1/2 the year! Thu, 18 Jun 2009 08:04:10 -0400 Emerging Markets International ETFs Technical Analysis EEM VWO Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8863 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8862 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 07:51:59 -0400 Premium Newsletter http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8862 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8861 I thought it might be entertaining at least but the show was a bust-a bore-a ramped, camped and dumped deal. Bull's got excited early with (ho hum) "better than expected" employment data and Leading Economic Indicators. Then financials got a lift from Turbo-Timmy's testimony. With quad witching starting you'd think we'd have more volume but there was little. Breadth was positive. Thu, 18 Jun 2009 06:53:08 -0400 Agriculture Asia Aussie/NZ Base Metals Bonds Broad Market ETFs Builders Canada Crude Currencies Emerging Markets Energy Europe Financials Hardware International ETFs Nat Gas Precious Metals Sector ETFs Software Technical Analysis US REITs David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8861 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8859 Vanguard founder John Bogle and Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett have both recently emerged to criticize exchange traded funds (ETFs).Buffett's concern is that perhaps traditional mutual funds are better for investors, since they lessen the chance for frequen trading. The Bogle released the results of his study of investor behavior at a webinar hosted by Index Universe. Thu, 18 Jun 2009 05:14:57 -0400 Closed End Funds Education ETFs Personal Finance Tom Lydonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8859 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8855 Several times in the past, I have had some fun the Trading Patterns feature at optionsXpress, including a February 2008 post, optionsXpress Trading Patterns and the VIX, which examined the securities that optionsXpress customers who traded the VIX were also trading. Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:43:43 -0400 Options Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8855 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8854 Interesting report out of Deutsche Bank over the weekend, presenting hypothetical upcoming current-to-trough declines in real estate prices, based on DB's proprietary Home Price Appreciation (HPA) model outlook for the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). While the full report should be read in its entirety, a good summary is the chart below which demonstrates (in the right most column) the worst-case modelled downside to home prices in the 20 worst U.S. MSAs.The top 5 MSAs where the pain will be most acute? (no real surprise there): Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:34:55 -0400 Builders Economy Lenders Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8854 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8853 Quants are back pushing the market up on no volume in tried and true fashion. Credit panicking, as 7 shares of something or another higher means inflation is here to stay. In the meantime, mortgages are on a one way street higher, while 2s10s are enjoying the cattle gun. At the same time, Treasury vol is starting to pick up again: just what the doctor ordered for a quant manipulated market as even PT volume disappears.So which will it be Bernanke: 401(k) down only50% form their peak or people buying that 7th vacation home again. Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:23:05 -0400 Bonds Economy Financials Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8853 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8852 Turkey straddles the border between Europe and Asia. And yet, due to a largely Muslim population, it is often lumped in with Iraq, Syria and other Middle East neighbors. So what are the prospects for investing there? Indeed, Turkey's prospects are looking better than they have in quite some time. Consumer confidence is surging. Inflation has disappeared to levels not seen in 4 decades. And the government is outwardly promoting the notion that the economy is "in recovery." Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:05:06 -0400 International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8852 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8851 We have seen a big rotation the past 2-3 sessions into healthcare; up and down the food chain. The thesis appears to be as details of Obama-care become more fine tuned there is less confusion and bad news is better than uncertainty in the stock market. Thu, 18 Jun 2009 01:47:41 -0400 Technical Analysis TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8851 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8850 A Bloomberg item out this morning wonders whether long-term Treasury yields have moved too far, too fast: Thu, 18 Jun 2009 01:47:34 -0400 Bonds Economy Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8850 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8849 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 01:43:41 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8849 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8848 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 01:39:31 -0400 Asia Aussie/NZ Canada Commodities Currencies Emerging Markets Europe Paul Baiocchihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8848 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8847 Potash (POT) fell 11% on June 17th, slicing through daily support and inflecting down off the 38.2% weekly Fibonacci retracement.  Let's see all this up-close and learn a few lessons from this price movement. Potash (POT) Weekly: Thu, 18 Jun 2009 01:13:26 -0400 Agriculture Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8847 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8846 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.3% When August gold was trading at the $939 level this morning, somebody bought a truckload of $850 puts. 832 of them, to be exact. At a premium of $2.50 an ounce, that's a $208,000 bet. In cash, mind you. Most people reading Hard Assets Investors columns would look at such a trade and wonder, "What was the buyer thinking?" Does he/she really think August gold is going to trade below the puts' $847.50 breakeven point in the next month or two?" Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:53:00 -0400 Options Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8846 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8844 On June 17, 2009, Michael Pento appeared on CNBC's The Kudlow Report to discuss the Fed's power. To learn more about The Kudlow Report, click here. Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:43:05 -0400 Home Page Video Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8844 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8842 On June 17, 2009, Michael Pento appeared on CNBC's The Kudlow Report to debate whether the Fed should be granted more power.To learn more about The Kudlow Report, click here. Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:30:23 -0400 Home Page Video Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8842 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8840 For the U.S. domestic markets, the current rally began on Tuesday, March 10. The S&P 500 SPDR Trust (NYSE: SPY) climbed an astonishing 6% off of the "March lows" that have faded from many people's memory.(S&P 500 closing at 676... and hitting intra-day, devilish lows of 666. Remember that!) Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:13:50 -0400 Emerging Markets International ETFs Sector ETFs SPY Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8840 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8839 Nirvana for investing is getting tomorrow's news today. Impossible, of course, which leaves strategic-minded investors to search for the next best thing. That boils down to hard work. Estimating expected return and risk is at the heart of intelligent investing. We still can't peer into the future with a high degree of certainty, but thanks to decades of inquiry in the realm of financial economics there's a modestly clearer picture of how the markets behave and what that means for asset pricing. Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:06:43 -0400 Bonds Education Personal Finance Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8839 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8838 We had a number of surprises in U.S. economic data this morning including the Philly Fed index and leading indicators, but the biggest surprise was definitely the decline in continuing claims. Since the beginning of the year, continuing claims, which measures the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits rose week after week, forecasting the rapidly rising unemployment rate. Initial jobless claims are important as well, but they can be noisy and volatile. Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:02:12 -0400 Asia Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8838 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8836 Trading in the foreign exchange market this morning is exceedingly quiet with EUR/USD 1 month volatilities slipping. The dollar is weaker against all of the major currencies with an interest rate of 1 percent or greater. Currency traders haven't decided whether CHF and JPY are more worthless than the dollar but the sharp decline in U.K. retail sales have them convinced that we can no longer look at the U.K. economy only through rose-colored glasses. Thu, 18 Jun 2009 11:52:39 -0400 Currencies Economy Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8836 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8835 Good, succinct obit of the Green Shoots period compliments of Rosie's headline points from his morning piece.Era of the Green Shoots is Over Thu, 18 Jun 2009 11:50:03 -0400 Economy Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8835 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8833 As we are hearing about Obama’s planned overhaul of the financial system I get a sense of confidence that it is unlikely that this will ever happen again. Unfortunately the reactive nature is such that it is also unlikely that what Obama hopes to put in place would do anything for whatever might come along next. As a society we are trying to prevent the crisis that has already happened. Thu, 18 Jun 2009 11:31:00 -0400 Education Personal Finance Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8833 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8832 Everybody's got an opinion on the dollar, ranging from its aesthetics (for the most part, people think greenbacks lack that) to its utility (we hear a lot from folks bemoaning its use as a fiat currency).Voices were raised in recent months in favor of doing away with the dollar as a reserve currency, the most strident emanating from exporters of dollar-denominated commodities, such as Russia, and nations like China that hold large swatches of U.S. government paper.So, what's a reserve currency and why should the buck get the boot? Thu, 18 Jun 2009 10:18:05 -0400 Asia Currencies Economy Emerging Markets Europe Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8832 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8831 Figure 1 shows the cash S&P, normalised volume. Notice that since Monday's break, the volume has picked up as the  market headed lower BUT the range has been decreasing even though the bars of Monday and Tuesday showed control by the bears. In addition the volume on Monday and  Tuesday was below normal. I interpreted that to mean that we were not seeing new selling. Only long liquidation, and that as the market moved lower, buying was coming in with increasing volume. Thu, 18 Jun 2009 10:03:55 -0400 Education Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8831 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8830 I have learned a lot from the late Peter Bernstein. I remember a piece of his entitled (something like), "What is Liquidity?" where he described liquidity as the ability to change your mind or request a do-over. Bright guy, and one who focused on the big issues, not minutiae. Thu, 18 Jun 2009 09:58:52 -0400 Economy David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8830 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8829 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 09:39:50 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8829 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8828 The current 1-day box on the SPX is located between 905-925/930 as it can be seen on the 1-mo/20-min chart + 1 blank day. Immediately underneath is the 3-mo/60-min chart where you can see the intermediate-term support and resistance areas. Thu, 18 Jun 2009 09:37:30 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception SPX John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8828 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8827 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 09:27:09 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8827 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8826 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 09:16:54 -0400 Financials Financials Fundamentals Politics The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8826 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8825 ETF Watchlist 06/18/2009 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 09:09:21 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8825 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8824 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 08:42:45 -0400 Economy Farrish Files The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8824 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8823 Just last week we were discussing where Indonesia should be a part of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) cartel.  [Morgan Stanley: Add Indonesia to the BRIC] Since "i" everything is a rage these days (phones, pods) why not iBRIC? Indonesia would help us out there. Wed, 17 Jun 2009 08:56:12 -0400 Emerging Markets Int'l TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8823 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8822 Since its launch on January 30th, the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) has generated an enthusiastic following, with an average volume of 400,000 shares traded each day. The same claim cannot be made of VXX's more problematic sibling, the iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (VXZ), where 100,000 share days are more the exception than the rule. Wed, 17 Jun 2009 08:08:22 -0400 Options Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8822 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8821 Austrian Filter has taken the time to put together all the relevant quotes over the past 2 years that demonstrate how profoundly Bernanke and Paulson have been misrepresenting (or simply misunderstanding) just how extensive the crisis we are in, is. One can only imagine why anyone would ever believe anything Ben Bernanke (or any other vapid disseminator of groundless optimism) has to say anymore, after two years of outright hyperbole and unfounded green shootery. Wed, 17 Jun 2009 08:04:46 -0400 Economy Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8821 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8820 The big winner of the Obama financial-regulation plan appears to be the Federal Reserve, which becomes the consolidated supervisor of large, systemically important banks. This is like the fox guarding the henhouse. After all, the Fed’s overly loose money policies created the asset bubble—including housing, commodities, and energy—in the first place. Near-zero interest rates, huge money growth, and total disregard for the plunging dollar are what set up the housing boom and the unfortunate overleveraging by consumers, mortgage borrowers, and Wall Street securitizers. Wed, 17 Jun 2009 07:49:19 -0400 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8820 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8819 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 07:44:47 -0400 Agriculture Asia Base Metals Bonds Broad Market ETFs Builders Crude Currencies Emerging Markets Energy Europe Financials International ETFs Nat Gas Precious Metals Sector ETFs Technical Analysis US REITs David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8819 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8817 For the U.S. domestic markets, the current rally began on Tuesday, March 10. The S&P 500 SPDR Trust (NYSE: SPY) climbed an astonishing 6% off of the "March lows" that have faded from many people's memory. (S&P 500 closing at 676... and hitting intra-day, devilish lows of 666. Remember that!) Wed, 17 Jun 2009 05:54:20 -0400 Europe International ETFs Technical Analysis SPY Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8817 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8816 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 04:39:22 -0400 Economy Financials Financials The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8816 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8814 PowerShares DB Agriculture (NYSE: DBA) is an ETF made up of corn, wheat, sugar and soybean futures. The fund itself has underperformed other commodities, like oil and various metals. However, DBA has definitive technical support with its price above a 50-day and 200-day moving average. Its 50-day trendline also moved above its 200-day trendline... which technical folks really love to see. Wed, 17 Jun 2009 02:52:55 -0400 Agriculture Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8814 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8813 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 02:23:43 -0400 Options Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8813 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8812 Just released, a new and highly relevant Weekly Strategy report out from Albert Edwards of Societe Generale. Not only does Edwards, who was previously vilified then praised for calling the 1997 Asian Bubble, see a significant drop in equities before the end of the year, his main concern is every optimist's greatest green shoot: China. Wed, 17 Jun 2009 02:04:48 -0400 Asia Economy Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8812 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8811 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 01:31:21 -0400 Asia Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8811 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8810 Bit of an early post today with business to attend to later. The S&P put in a little follow through dip early in the morning session down past S1 to approximately SPX 900, then proceeded to bounce on cue off that round number coinciding with the 200-day moving average. The index appears to have put in a little inverse head and shoulders pattern in the morning trade as well, and the VIX is confirming the move along with strengthening Advance - Decline and Tick patterns. We'll see if it can hold. Have a terrific trading day. Wed, 17 Jun 2009 12:32:18 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPX Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8810 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8809 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 11:58:53 -0400 Builders Economy Lenders Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8809 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8808 Watch as programs protect the 200 DMA in the SPY. Intraday below: bounce right off the 200 DMA (white line) Wed, 17 Jun 2009 11:49:03 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8808 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8807 Wednesday, 17 June 2009 11:31 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.4% Energy prices took center stage today in the government's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) release today. A hike in energy costs ticked the May CPI 0.1% higher than April.It's no wonder. Front-month crude oil futures rose 29.7% last month, nearly matched by a 27.8% jump in gasoline prices. Wed, 17 Jun 2009 11:46:10 -0400 Crude Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8807 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8806 The following release is part of our periodic process of notifying the public of changes to our fully transparent index:Huntington Beach, CA, June 16, 2009 - Delta Global Indices today announced the rebalancing of the Delta Global Shipping Index (Index Ticker: DGAGSI), which tracks the global shipping sector. Standard & Poor's Index Services publishes the Index, which was developed and is maintained by Delta Global Indices, LLC, an affiliate of Delta Global Advisors, Inc. Delta Global Indices, LLC specializes in global markets index development. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 11:39:05 -0400 Shipping Chip Hanlonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8806 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8805 Flat to a slight upside bias. That about sums up the prevailing state of inflation at the moment, based on this morning's latest from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wed, 17 Jun 2009 11:43:12 -0400 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8805 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8804 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 10:17:04 -0400 ETFs Farrish Files Sector ETFs Technical Analysis The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8804 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8803 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 09:42:06 -0400 Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8803 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8802 Here are the highlights:Ex food and energy +0.1% - as expected YoY CPI Headline -1.3% lower than expected. Biggest drop since 1950. Ex Food and Energy YoY +1.8% which is as expected. Inflation is not really showing up in the numbers. The US Current Account balance comes out at -101.5 vs -85.0B In Canada Wholesale sales fell -0.6%. The prior month was revised to -0.4% from -0.6%.  About as expected. Canada Leading Indicator fell by -0.1% which was better than expectations -0.6%. Wed, 17 Jun 2009 09:39:23 -0400 Currencies Economy Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8802 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8801 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 09:06:00 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8801 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8800 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 09:31:27 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8800 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8799 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 09:24:59 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8799 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8798 ETF Watchlist 06/17/2009 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 08:47:04 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8798 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8796 Bulls got some early cheer from homebuilders but that quickly faded with a (ahem) worse than expected decline in industrial production. Bulls need a catalyst and a stronger flow of funds to markets. Now it seems many are either just bored with conditions or lack motivation born by an inflow of fresh funds. Volume remains as light as a slow day in mid-August. Breadth was negative and we're now short-term oversold while long-term overbought. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 08:08:05 -0400 Agriculture Asia Aussie/NZ Base Metals Broad Market ETFs Crude Currencies Emerging Markets Energy Europe Financials International ETFs Precious Metals Sector ETFs Technical Analysis US REITs David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8796 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8795 This is either the sign of a massive top, or incredibly prescient.  Ask me again in 5 years.  My only other question is who the heck is guarding these ATM machines? Granted, I assume it will be tough to hijack an ATM machine out of an airport but maybe the railway station angle.... hmm. And talk about a premium! Tue, 16 Jun 2009 07:47:34 -0400 Precious Metals TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8795 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8794 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 07:14:40 -0400 TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8794 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8793 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 05:40:20 -0400 Economy Financials Politics The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8793 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8791 A blast from the manipulated past (via Bloomberg). When will domestic regulators demonstrate they are at least on par with their Japanese colleagues.Nikko Salomon Banned From Japan Trading for 20 Days Tue, 16 Jun 2009 04:50:01 -0400 Asia Economy Financials Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8791 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8790 In May of 2008, Goldman Sachs' acclaimed oil analyst, Arjun Muti, predicted $200 per barrel oil by the end of the year. He made the prediction just around the time that oil topped out near $150. It ended the year near $45 per barrel. (Note: I refrained from predicting where oil would go; nevertheless, in "What If The U.S. Dollar Strengthens" on 6/4/2008, I explained why oil could just as easily go to $75 per barrel as it might go higher.) Tue, 16 Jun 2009 02:57:42 -0400 Crude Emerging Markets Energy International ETFs Sector ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8790 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8789 The EUR/USD has remained below the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart which currently is at the 1.3858 level.  This keeps the bearish bias for the pair.  Intraday, the 1.3818 is the 61.8% retracment of the days range. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 02:51:17 -0400 Asia Currencies Europe Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8789 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8788 It's been a long time coming but today could finally be the day the 20 day moving average is busted. Maybe spidey sense is beginning to work again after a month and a half hiatus; as I wrote earlier today it would be the probable course to buy at the 20 day moving average since that's what has been working, but this is the not the course I adopted. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 02:11:20 -0400 Technical Analysis TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8788 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8786 The latest research brief from Innovative Quant Solutions, touching on the very relevant topic of whether the VIX has any predictive power left at all, and just how gamed of an indicator has it lately become. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 01:14:02 -0400 Options Technical Analysis Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8786 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8785 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 01:00:16 -0400 Asia Bonds Commodities Economy Europe Financials Fundamentals Int'l The Market Traders' Talk David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8785 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8784 The S&P500 is in the process of assessing the strength of buyer support near yesterday's low coincident with the simple 20-day moving average. After early side-ways chop, the AD and Cumulative Tick lines came under stiff pressure. On the positive side, VIX readings do not indicate any strong sense of panic at the mid-day. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 12:59:45 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8784 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8782 I've asked the question before; that is, do strategic ETFs add value to portfolios? Near the bear market's inception in November 2007, I noted that a wide variety of "strategy ETFs" were outperforming the benchmark S&P 500. At least "strategy ETFs" had the edge at that moment in time. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 12:39:16 -0400 Emerging Markets International ETFs Sector ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8782 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8781 "The Stoning of Soraya M." star,  Shohreh Aghdashloo, talks to NBC's Ann Curry on the Today Show about the controversial issue of stoning in Iran as a means of punishment for adultery. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 12:28:23 -0400 Home Page Video Jim Slaglehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8781 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8779 This post should end the series, at least for now.  Tonight I want to talk about the limits to compounding growth.  Drawing from an old article of mine freely available at TSCM, I quote  the following regarding talking to management teams: What single constraint on the profitable growth of your enterprise would you eliminate if you could? Tue, 16 Jun 2009 12:25:07 -0400 Education Financials Personal Finance David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8779 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8778 Selling naked puts on the VIX just prior to expiration can be a surprisingly low risk volatility play. Normally, selling naked puts is a dangerous strategy because of the risk that negative news can overwhelm the underlying, causing it to gap down and create a large loss. With the VIX, however, spikes are almost always upward, because while threats to equities are relatively easy to identify, it is much more difficult to discern when these threats are suddenly extinguished. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 12:12:58 -0400 Options Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8778 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8777 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.6% A 2.9% rise in wholesale energy costs in May pushed the Producer Price Index (PPI) for finished goods 0.2% higher in May, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The uptick followed a 0.3% advance in the PPI for April after a 1.2% decrease in March. Last month's jump in energy prices trumped a 1.6% decline in the cost of finished consumer foods. After carving out the volatile food and energy sectors, the so-called "core" PPI fell 0.1% in May. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 11:58:48 -0400 Agriculture Economy Energy Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8777 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8776 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 11:47:30 -0400 Bonds Economy Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8776 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8775 A funny thing happened yesterday. The New York Fed said came out with a bad report on manufacturing, and the dollar rallied the most against the euro since late March. This flies in the face of classic economic theory. Why does the greenback benefit from the U.S. remaining in recession? Normally, the textbooks would expect a country's currency to fall on signs of economic weakness. What are we missing? Tue, 16 Jun 2009 11:46:01 -0400 Economy David Russellhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8775 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8774 Perhaps I am the last to know but Doug Kass recently started writing about a model portfolio in which, from the sector level he overweights and underweights each of the big ten S&P 500 sectors and from a bigger picture viewpoint increases and decreases the total equity exposure. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 11:30:34 -0400 Roger's World The Market Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8774 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8773 It is clear that a concerted effort is being made to replace the ruptured private-sector debt bubble with a government debt bubble, although the effort is generally not labeled as such. Moreover, the dramatic increase in government debt that we are seeing is really just a symptom of expanding government. In the case of the US, for example, GW Bush presided over a rapid expansion of government power and the trend has accelerated under Obama. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 10:25:51 -0400 Economy Politics Steve Savillehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8773 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8772 Posted by Tyler Durden at 9:17 AM If there is one post you read today, this month, or this year, this should be it. Absolutely brilliant summary of the predicament interventionism has gotten us into. If you are looking for insight that will save you money when the market turns, this is it.hat tip Brian Tue, 16 Jun 2009 10:04:19 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8772 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8771 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 09:53:17 -0400 Currencies Economy Emerging Markets Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8771 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8770 The EUR/USD rebounded today on the back of an inital correction, later fueled by Russia comments on diversification out of the US (here we go again) and the stronger ZEW Economic Sentiment data out of Germany and the EUROZONE (see chart above). Tue, 16 Jun 2009 09:41:56 -0400 Builders Currencies Economy Europe Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8770 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8769 This blog focuses on high-lighting the risks traders face when choosing brokers. A little context: I view brokers as being in a fiduciary relationship and as owing a fiduciary duty to their clients. Ray, what in heavens name do you mean? It sounds like legal-eagle double talk! Tue, 16 Jun 2009 09:36:19 -0400 Currencies Education Personal Finance Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8769 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8768 I noted in a tweet last night that big moves down are more short-term bullish when they aren't occurring from a high. This was a bit of an understatement. They're often short-term bearish. Yesterday's drop moved the S&P 500 from a 10-day closing high to a 10-day closing low. Since 1960 there have been only 10 other times this has happened. In last night's Subscriber Letter I show the results of those 10 instances. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 09:29:16 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8768 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8767 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 09:26:38 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8767 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8766 ETF Watchlist 06/16/2009 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 09:21:19 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8766 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8764 Yesterday when I tweeted that Bloomberg books had finally received from me the outline they have been waiting months for, another market bird tweeted back "must have been hard to come up with someting new in the overcrowded space of psychology and markets." I actually spontaneously laughed out loud - as nothing could be further from the truth. The entire world of risk decisions is up for review right now. It appears that most of what we thought we knew (or assume to be true) isn't. So indeed there is a ton of material! Tue, 16 Jun 2009 09:03:55 -0400 Technical Analysis Denise Shullhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8764 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8763 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 08:49:27 -0400 Farrish Files Precious Metals Sector ETFs The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8763 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8762 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 01:32:40 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8762 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8761 Some neighbors had a block party last night.  Our neighborhood has many intelligent people.  While there is plenty of diversity in race and religion, there are many shared values about kids and community.Nearly everyone is a successful professional person.  There were plenty of opinions about the economy and the current investing climate.  Partly (but not entirely) from this experience, here are a few questions. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 12:39:54 -0400 Economy Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8761 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8760 Volatility Tracker for June 15, 2009 This week's report is a little late, but after the close Monday I see little reason to change any of the comments below. The Dow Jones Industrials closed down 187 points, but that's not so remarkable when you consider that, on Friday, the Dow volatility index (VXD) implied a standard deviation of daily moves of 140 points. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 08:09:26 -0400 Options Technical Analysis Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8760 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8759 Mon, 15 Jun 2009 08:08:07 -0400 Agriculture Asia Aussie/NZ Bonds Broad Market ETFs Crude Emerging Markets Energy Europe Financials International ETFs Nat Gas Sector ETFs Technical Analysis US REITs David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8759 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8758 We're harsh critics of so many of the now government institutionalized bad practices in these virtual pages, so let me be the first to say if the following does come true - as reported by FT.com, I'll be the first to applaud. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 12:36:17 -0400 Economy Lenders TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8758 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8757 After essentially going nowhere last week, today (Monday) displayed some distressing signs that the market might be springing some leaks in what has been incredibly robust support. Are we losing that underlying bid? Will the market finally undergo at least a minor correction that so many observers have called for? As always, let's look to the recent past for clues about the trends, and then move on to our forward look. Tue, 16 Jun 2009 12:37:08 -0400 Energy Financials Technical Analysis Telecom David Brownhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8757 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8752 Granted, all of the major indexes fell by more than 2% on 6/15/09. Sure we witnessed the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: $VIX) climb 10% to revisit the 30 level. And yes... short equity ETFs were the big winners. Nevertheless, it wasn't exactly another Monday massacre. Considering the S&P 500's 650 to 950 push, amateurs and pros alike have been waiting for selling pressure to kick in. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 05:09:42 -0400 Bonds Currencies Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8752 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8751 Following my recent Dueling Fibonaccis for the SPX, a reader asked if I knew of any 'scientific' studies that attempted to evaluate the usefulness of Fibonacci retracement levels. The short answer is that I am unaware of any detailed studies, nor was I able to dig up anything meaningful with a search of SSRN.So I turn this topic over to readers: Mon, 15 Jun 2009 03:23:12 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPX Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8751 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8750 Mon, 15 Jun 2009 02:12:33 -0400 Currencies Economy Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8750 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8749 I am back from vacation and found this interesting tidbit that could lead to further Yen strength over the next few days: Sumitomo have announced they are looking at doing a rights issue next week (up to USD 8.6 bio equiv) of which 50% will be offered to non domestics. This deal is expected to close on the 16th June and allocations likely to be given on the 17th June settlement T+3. There could be a lot of interest in this as: Mon, 15 Jun 2009 02:04:08 -0400 Asia Currencies Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8749 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8748 At the mid-day we find ourselves in a relatively strong down trend day. Early tells were lack of attempt to fill the gap down, a first rejection of the VWAP, nary a Tick above zero, the VIX leap and strongly trending Advance - Decline weakness and Down Volume strength. The only moderate reading for the day, is Volume. While we seem to have found some support at the rock bottom along the two-week trading range, we have broken just slightly below it, and I would be wary of attempts to fade this weakness too early. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 01:10:31 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8748 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8747 I was asked by readers to run the numbers on the Coppock Guide because (by some interpretations) it recently turned bullish. Unfamiliar with the Coppock? The Coppock Guide (or Coppock Curve) is an oscillator that uses monthly data (purportedly) to identify major stock market bottoms. Click for the calculation. The chart below shows the Coppock (red, left scale) applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (blue, right scale) from 1932: Mon, 15 Jun 2009 08:46:00 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Michael Stokeshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8747 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8746 Six years ago, our country debated whether we would/should fight Iraq. We already had troops fighting to maintain control of Afghanistan. I remember thinking that history favored defense stocks in similar situations. In fact, stock indexes always bounced roughly 10 percentage points higher upon confirmation of U.S. military conflict... regardless of the outcome of that conflict (i.e., win, lose or draw). Mon, 15 Jun 2009 12:44:27 -0400 Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8746 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8745 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.7% Summer officially starts next Sunday, but traders are already making their exodus out of gold. On June 4, we highlighted ("The Season For Gold? Not Yet") gold's seasonal tendency to sell off through July. We thought a breakthrough close through $864.50 basis June COMEX could aim the market to the $941-$947 level. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 12:31:55 -0400 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8745 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8744 We have started the new trading week on a dollar friendly tone as the market questions the speculation over reserve diversification. The first ever BRIC summit (Brazil, Russia, India and China) begins tomorrow the nations are expected to collectively tone down their criticism about the U.S. dollar. According to the latest comments from the Russian Finance Minster, there are no immediate plans to shift to a new reserve currency. This is a U turn from their prior stance and indicates that China has successfully convinced Russia that there is no immediate alternative to the U.S. dollar. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 12:22:34 -0400 Currencies Economy Emerging Markets Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8744 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8743 Barron's roundtable did not disappoint as some of the most influential financial minds were interviewed on what has happened and what is to come, oddly enough we agree with most of what was said. The general themes were: gold should be in your portfolio, a correction in equities is coming, the paltry returns in Treasuries do not justify an allocation, at some point the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates, and finally, the actions by the government should cause inflation if not hyperinflation. Sounds to me like a recipe for a continuing bull market in commodities. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 12:21:58 -0400 Agriculture Bonds Crude Energy Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8743 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8742 Mon, 15 Jun 2009 12:11:13 -0400 Broad Market ETFs Earnings Economy Sector ETFs Technical Analysis Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8742 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8741 New York Times columnist Paul Krugman writes today that it's too early to begin removing the monetary stimulus engineered by the Federal Reserve. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 12:10:08 -0400 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8741 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8740 The more I learn about human nature, the more I doubt the veracity of  Einstein's oft repeated statement: "God does not play dice with the Universe". Here's why I say that in relation to our behaviour around trading. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 11:54:35 -0400 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8740 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8739 Barron’s published an article over the weekend written by Bob Adams who among other things maintains a brand new blog called The Retirement Bubble. Candidly the name of the blog, which is how he labels the problem that Americans have with everything they expect from retirement, makes no sense to me but the problems he cites (and they are numerous) are spot on and in many instances things I have been writing about for a long time. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 11:51:42 -0400 Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8739 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8738 Mon, 15 Jun 2009 10:28:14 -0400 Broad Market ETFs Economy ETFs The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8738 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8737 ETF Watchlist 06/15/2009 Mon, 15 Jun 2009 09:48:08 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8737 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8735 Some market analysts are "bottoms-up."   They pick stocks whatever the market.  Others are "top-down", starting with broad macro themes.  Both approaches can lead to winning results, but there is another helpful perspective:  Market Sectors. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 09:35:46 -0400 Broad Market ETFs ETFs International ETFs Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8735 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8734 There's been a lot of talk this year about leveraged ETFs pushing the market to make more extreme moves near the close (likely in the same direction as the rest of the day). Click for a WSJ primer on the issue. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 09:31:43 -0400 International ETFs Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Michael Stokeshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8734 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8733 Listen this week as Jim shares 8 things he believes could be impacting the market fundamentally. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 09:30:51 -0400 ETF podcasts Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8733 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8732 For the second week in a row, the chart of the week focuses on economic fundamentals. This week I am featuring a graphic from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, that attempts to summarize current recession in terms of industrial production, real income, employment and retail sales. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 09:29:08 -0400 Economy Technical Analysis Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8732 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8731 Below is a study from Friday night's Quantifinder that was originally published in the Weekly Research Letter. (click to enlarge) Mon, 15 Jun 2009 09:26:30 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8731 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8730 Mon, 15 Jun 2009 09:24:36 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8730 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8729 Mon, 15 Jun 2009 09:20:58 -0400 Farrish Files Sector ETFs The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8729 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8728 Here is the 3rd Q & A session:---1) Juana) Please comment on your ACAS prospects. In this case, the chart does all of the talking. The most likely target would be around $4.20. Mon, 15 Jun 2009 09:20:41 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8728 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8727 Mon, 15 Jun 2009 03:51:04 -0400 Asia Aussie/NZ TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8727 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8726 Although the G20 communique stated that employment is likely to continue to suffer, the idea of an "exit strategy" was discussed. Specifically, they asked the IMF "to undertake the necessary analytical work to assist us with this process."  Mon, 15 Jun 2009 01:53:06 -0400 Currencies Economy Fundamentals Lenders Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8726 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8725 Understanding public policy decisions is crucial to investment success.This has never been more true.  Government intervention is changing the nature of every business.  As an investor, you need to figure out what is going to happen, and whether it affects the companies in which you own stock.Over the last several days we have emphasized how easy it is to make mistakes in the minefield of politics. Sun, 14 Jun 2009 05:01:56 -0400 Economy Politics Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8725 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8724 Sun, 14 Jun 2009 02:41:10 -0400 Bonds Currencies Economy Bob Langhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8724 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8723 For those readers who happen to be in the Boston area I thought I'd let you know that I will be giving a presentation at the next Boston Investors' Group meeting on Wednesday, June 24th.The meeting will take place at MIT. It is free and open to the public, although the organizers request that you RSVP. More information, including a tentative agenda, may be found using the link below:http://www.meetup.com/BostonIBD/calendar/10627009/ Sat, 13 Jun 2009 11:23:27 -0400 The Market Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8723 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8722 Sat, 13 Jun 2009 08:20:32 -0400 Asia Aussie/NZ Currencies Europe Technical Analysis Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8722 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8721 1) Why have long interest rates been rising? Sat, 13 Jun 2009 08:13:10 -0400 Bonds Economy Financials Lenders David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8721 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8720 Sat, 13 Jun 2009 08:09:49 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8720 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8719 Sat, 13 Jun 2009 12:24:19 -0400 Commodities Economy Financials Fundamentals Politics Precious Metals The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8719 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8718 Dear ETN Sponsors, The time has come for you to address the ETN stigma.  It is time to start moving the "unsecured debt obligation" structure of ETNs to something more appealing. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 07:18:03 -0400 ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8718 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8717 Fair value may be in the eye of the beholder. And when it comes to Morningstar's assessment of intrinsic worth of exchange-traded funds, bloggers have been less than kind. Nevertheless, Morningstar makes a valid attempt at determining a price at which... above it, you might sell, below it... you might buy. So it is interesting to note that 4 out of 5 of the most "undervalued" ETFs in the Morningstar system are healthcare ETFs.  Fri, 12 Jun 2009 07:05:51 -0400 Sector ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8717 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8715 Fri, 12 Jun 2009 06:44:08 -0400 Economy Software Technical Analysis The Market Traders' Talk David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8715 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8714 There’s interesting chatter in the “Dow Theory” community as to whether we’re experiencing a non-confirmation in the Industrials and Transports currently - namely, the Industrials are at a new high for 2009 and are above the 200 day SMA while the Transports are not.  Let’s take a look at both. Dow Jones Industrial Index: Fri, 12 Jun 2009 05:35:57 -0400 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8714 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8713 It was fun while it lasted. I am of course referring to the mirage that was the Administration's promise of "very manageable" tax increases. Bloomberg is reporting that as part of the Healthcare overhaul bill, there will be an addition $600 billion in tax increases. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 04:52:17 -0400 Economy Politics Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8713 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8710 On Thursday, 6/11/09, the World Health Organization (WHO) labeled the swine flu with the fear-provoking word, "pandemic." It's the first time that the label has been attached to a strain in more than 40 years. The swine (pig) flu has been diagnosed in 30,000 cases worldwide, resulting in 144 deaths. It seems to have surpassed its predecessor, avian (bird) flu, in both coverage, concern and incidence. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 01:57:31 -0400 Biotech Sector ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8710 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8709 It's quite rightly said that for the most part trading technically boils down to pattern recognition; but since the days of Richard Wyckoff and perhaps prior to that, technical analysis has split into two camps: Fri, 12 Jun 2009 01:51:17 -0400 Education Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8709 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8708 The market has been unable to recovery from yesterday's afternoon slide off of new annual highs, with the semiconductors (SMH -2.6%) perhaps hardest hit. Cumulative Tick is negative, but mostly flat at the mid-day as price loops around the equally flattened VWAP. There is always the possibility of late-day fireworks, so traders have to keep on their toes in spite of the boredom. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 01:41:19 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8708 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8707 One of the basic misunderstandings about commodity investing? You need to know whether you are investing in the spot price or futures contract of the material/mineral/resource or whether you are investing in companies that extract/produce/deliver the commodity. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 01:28:28 -0400 Precious Metals Sector ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8707 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8705 On June 11th, Michael Pento appeared on CNBC Reports to talk about the economic outlook.To learn more on CNBC Reports, click here Fri, 12 Jun 2009 01:18:19 -0400 Home Page Video Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8705 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8703 At the height of yesterday's run up to SPX 956, a commenter took me to task for having a bearish bias in the face of a bull stampede. At the time, I was ready to close out most of my short positions, but this decision was conditional on how the market closed. As it turns out, the bearish momentum at the close was enough for me to leave my short positions on. When it comes to rising markets, there are two things I know for certain: Fri, 12 Jun 2009 01:08:26 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPX Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8703 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8702 The University of Michigan Sentiment index narrowly missed expectations, indicating that consumers remain reluctant to spend money. The number, which has been rising over the last few months, reached 69.0, the highest levels since September of 2008. Nevertheless, the pace of improvement is slowing, and serves as a perfect confirmation behind yesterday's Retail Sales report. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 01:01:10 -0400 Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8702 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8701 Developing story: Among the affected stocks are GE, Merck and Exxon - the reason cited for the halt is "connectivity issues." Did all the Supplemental Liquidity Providers leave for the Hamptons to riverboat blond Latvian exports early today? Or did GS - Sigma Server X1 get a Norton AV uncaught Trojan? That explains why all trades are now automatically rerouted to adultfriendfinder.com Fri, 12 Jun 2009 12:34:33 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk GS Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8701 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8700 Earlier this week, a friend asked me if I thought this stock bear was over.  My first thought was "which bear?", for there isn't just one.  The stock-market action over the last couple years has been a tale of two bears.  Investors who've failed to understand this critical truth are very confused on what to expect from stocks going forward. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 12:30:47 -0400 Technical Analysis Adam Hamiltonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8700 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8698 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.7% It must be time for a summer holiday. Why's that? Because the gold/oil ratio's falling. It's sort of a trader's tradition, really: Light the barbecue grill and sell some gold. Of course, the ratio's been tanking since February after a huge run-up. But if history is any guide, the swoon won't likely level off until the last of the Independence Day fireworks have fizzled. Right now, the ratio's aiming for the 13-to-1 level after peaking at a nearly 28x multiple. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 12:28:59 -0400 Energy Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8698 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8695 Since humans have been greedy and fearful since the beginning of time, they tend to act in similar ways before, during, and after a financial crisis. These tendencies manifested themselves during the tulip bulb craze of the 1600s, the dot-com craze of the 1990s, and the real estate mania of the 2000s. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 11:57:00 -0400 Economy Fundamentals Technical Analysis Chris Ciovaccohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8695 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8694 It's still not over, but it's getting close. When we took a hard look at initial jobless claims as a leading indicator this past March, we wondered if this data series would live up to its historical record as a robust clue about the end of the recession. The answer is always in doubt in real time, but yesterday's data points certainly keep hope alive. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 11:46:33 -0400 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8694 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8693 For a week now there has been an incredible discussion in the comments of my blog about the merits of using a Permanent Portfolio, a concept that as best as I can tell was created by Harry Browne about 30 years ago. If you don’t know the Permanent Portfolio is as follows; 25% - Stocks (in a broad based stock index fund like the S&P 500) 25% - Long Term Treasury Bonds 25% - Gold Bullion 25% - Cash (in a Treasury Money Market Fund) Fri, 12 Jun 2009 11:45:10 -0400 Education Personal Finance Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8693 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8692 Fri, 12 Jun 2009 11:37:12 -0400 Economy Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8692 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8691 Hedge funds had a nice May, up 5.2 percent on average. While the recent market rally no doubt helped, hedge funds also appear to be benefiting from less competition (see Economist article), with approximately 1,500 funds liquidating last year. This follows a similar trend observed in the late 1990s when less competition for trading opportunities helped those funds that survived after the LTCM failure. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 11:28:52 -0400 Economy The Market Traders' Talk David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8691 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8690 June 1st marked an upwards breakout in the S&P. Since then? Chop and slop while the trading world has waited to see if it holds. The jury is definitely out but they simply must be getting close to a decision. In the E-mini SP futures we have traced and retraced the same 25-30 point range for going on 9 days now - this is almost unheard of. A couple of times there has been a peek outside of 925-950 only to revert right back in - sort of like a Feb 2nd groundhog predicting the continuation of winter.  Fri, 12 Jun 2009 10:41:52 -0400 The Market Denise Shullhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8690 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8689 The Associate Press's market wrap-up was particularly rich last evening. On the heels of an upbeat headline, "Better data, strong 30-year auction lift stocks," comes the lead: "The stock market's rally is shifting to a lower gear." Oh...kay...? Then comes the explanation-the first part, that is: Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:59:40 -0400 The Market Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8689 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8688 The Import prices for May rose 1.3%.  As oil goes up and the dollar falls, this is the natural trend.    Fri, 12 Jun 2009 08:54:29 -0400 Crude Currencies Economy Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8688 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8687 I had many good comments on part 1 of this series.  One was particularly good that focused on the economy as a whole, and how the promises made by the government were unlikely to be fulfilled with Social Security and Medicare.  Our government attempts to finance programs on the cheap by relying on future growth, which does not always happen.  They move up spending rapidly if growth is large, and small if growth is negative.  In either case, the government grows as a fraction of the economy. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:45:31 -0400 Education Financials Personal Finance David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8687 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8686 Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:37:31 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8686 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8685 Barney Frank, (D Mass), the Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, is a polarizing figure.He is the bête noire of the conservative punditry.  Whenever he does or says anything, there will be a chorus of objections from those who disagree with his politics or his lifestyle. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:32:52 -0400 Economy Politics Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8685 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8684 Back in the range. There is one small, yet significant, change. The neutral flag is also forming a 15 degree ascending flag. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:30:21 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8684 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8683 One blog I enjoy reading is Cobra's Market View. He shows a lot of charts and often does a good job finding where there is unusual action. On Thursday night he noted the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio had come in extremely low. I decided to do a study on performance following extremely low 1-day readings. Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:25:05 -0400 Options Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8683 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8682 ETF Watchlist 06/12/2009 Fri, 12 Jun 2009 09:11:15 -0400 ETF Videos Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8682 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8680 Fri, 12 Jun 2009 08:54:12 -0400 Energy Farrish Files The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8680 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8679 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 08:55:31 -0400 TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8679 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8678 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 08:14:01 -0400 Premium Newsletter http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8678 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8677 That's sort of the way I see the buying-tentative. No one seems to be throwing everything they've got at markets. Days like today have been common. Investors start strongly but then take a few steps back. The strength in some sectors is impressive especially tech, commodity and emerging markets. Away from those areas, bulls are putting one baby step in front of the other. Thu, 11 Jun 2009 07:59:49 -0400 Agriculture Aussie/NZ Base Metals Bonds Broad Market ETFs Canada Currencies Financials International ETFs Nat Gas Precious Metals Sector ETFs Technical Analysis David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8677 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8676 Did the Federal Reserve’s Ben Bernanke lie about pressuring the Bank of America not to back out of the Merrill Lynch merger? BofA CEO Ken Lewis made this charge to New York AG Andrew Cuomo, and basically repeated it with a bit of sugar-coating in a House hearing today on Capitol Hill. Thu, 11 Jun 2009 07:39:59 -0400 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8676 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8675 For all the talk of money on the sidelines and other such gibberish, sentimentrader has put together a great chart based on Rydex fund data, indicating that traders had placed 2.4 times as much leveraged money in bull funds as bear funds: the highest level since November 2001. The data is comparable for the unleveraged ratio. If anyone still thinks that there are many bulls on the sidelines who have not entered the market, you can a) note the facts below or b) listen to Bob Pisani distort them. Thu, 11 Jun 2009 07:16:26 -0400 Technical Analysis The Market Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8675 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8674 It's time to think about how you're going to hedge the rising prices, because many signs are pointing to the fact that inflation is a very real threat. The dollar is at lows not seen since last year, which has made it more affordable for markets outside the United States to buy commodities denominated in U.S. dollars (especially oil). More money may be coming off the printer, which could erode the dollar. The Federal Reserve may not hike interest rates, since it would slow down the U.S. recovery efforts. Thu, 11 Jun 2009 05:10:42 -0400 Bonds Economy Sector ETFs Tom Lydonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8674 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8663 Ever since the 30 year auction closed earlier, the market has been acting about as rationally as the Stalingrad Bourse back in 1939. Nowhere can this be seen better than the volatility in the 15 Year mortgage. Vol has moved from stocks, to CDS, to treasuries and is now roosting in mortgages. Rinse. Repeat? Thu, 11 Jun 2009 03:04:23 -0400 Bonds Builders Lenders Technical Analysis Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8663 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8662 Here are 3 commodity ETFs with a reasonable probability of gaining significant ground: Thu, 11 Jun 2009 02:48:27 -0400 Nat Gas Sector ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8662 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8660 In ‘I Thought I Had Seen  It All!, I wrote about offers that seemed to be too good to be true. Today I want to speak a reported outright fraud. Thu, 11 Jun 2009 02:18:06 -0400 Education Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8660 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8659 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.5% Not much of a headline is it? I mean, what more can be said about the market for agribusiness company stocks but that investors seem to prefer them more than the physical commodities in which the firms deal.It's really a just a matter of relative strength and it's eminently playable by retail customers. First things first, though. Let's look at the trend. Thu, 11 Jun 2009 01:55:07 -0400 Agriculture Sector ETFs Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8659 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8657 Hope I haven't 'jinxed' it with that title, but this further consolidation on positive internals above the VWAP and fairly good news flow has me looking for a potential breakout above of the nine-day trading range during this afternoon's trade. The biggest risk to that scenario will be the reaction to the 30-year auction results, due out presently. Thus far, the SPX 950 level has certainly proven strong resistance. Thu, 11 Jun 2009 01:42:09 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPX Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8657 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8656 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 01:36:08 -0400 Technical Analysis Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8656 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8655 A few weeks ago I wrote a post that illustrated the edge buying 3 down closes has produced over time. There are a lot of ways to expand on the research in that post. Today I'm going to look briefly at what its meant to be down "X" number of days in terms of an edge for the next trading day.The table below looks at performance the day following a drop in the SPX of exactly X days in a row. Thu, 11 Jun 2009 12:43:38 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPX Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8655 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8654 JPM's Michael Cembalest with a terrific compare and contrast between the current economic situation and that of the 70's. Useful to not that no matter how many contrasts on draw to previous major recessions, what we are living through now is so much more than a simple manufacturing recession as Rosie keeps pounding the table. Anyone who believes that the impact from the unwind of 50 years of progressively cheaper and pervasive credit will be resolved within a 1 year of the Lehman bankruptcy is either hopelessly naive, or ideologically conflicted, or both. Thu, 11 Jun 2009 12:36:16 -0400 Asia Currencies Economy Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8654 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8652 Heading into driving season, motorists are wondering where pump prices are likely to peak. That knowledge, if nothing else, will help homeowners decide whether a drawdown on their equity lines of credit will be necessary to fuel the family chariot for their summertime frolics.Mortgaging one's future for fuel seemed a much grimmer reality at this time last year. The average gallon of petrol cost $4.09 in the first week of June 2008. Now, that same fuel can be had for $2.67. Thu, 11 Jun 2009 11:40:33 -0400 Crude Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8652 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8651 I also called today’s blog post the same title but we’ve got different bits over here. Thu, 11 Jun 2009 11:39:36 -0400 Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8651 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8650 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 11:03:49 -0400 Canada Crude Economy Fundamentals Int'l Politics The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8650 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8649 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 07:55:20 -0400 Builders Economy Lenders Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8649 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8648 We've spoken quite often about how dominant ETFs seem to be in the overall market; sweeping themes seem to be much more important than in the past, where individual stocks moved independently. I thought it would be instructive to show some of the major sectors that most in the investing community are keeping an eye on and tell the current story via "ETF".First, the S&P 500 which as we said in our weekly roundup is deciding which way it wants to go in its 'triangle' Thu, 11 Jun 2009 09:52:55 -0400 ETFs TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8648 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8647 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 09:44:02 -0400 Economy Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8647 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8646 Further to this morning's pre-market post, Volatility in Context with VIX at Pose-Lehman Low, today's 0.35% drop in the SPX means that it has now been four days since the S&P 500 index has moved more than 0.35%. Thu, 11 Jun 2009 09:37:35 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPX Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8646 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8645 Market pundits always try to explain modest changes in the broad averages.  Today their stories are all wrong. Today, the most important statistic came from Jack Hough at Smart Money The Story Hough did a piece on the credibility of government statistics.  It is a nice job compared to most prior discussions.  He provides a viewpoint on each of the key issues, citing arguments from the BLS and the principal conspiracy theorist. Thu, 11 Jun 2009 09:33:49 -0400 Economy Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8645 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8644 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 09:31:39 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8644 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8643 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 09:29:04 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8643 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8642 ETF Watchlist 6/11/2009 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 09:26:01 -0400 ETF Videos Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8642 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8641 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 09:11:35 -0400 Energy ETFs Farrish Files The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8641 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8640 Right now, with oil trading through $71 a barrel, Treasury bonds closing in on 4 percent and commodity indexes up 25 percent year-to-date, inflation fears are circulating through the markets. There's a way to nip this in the bud: First, the Treasury and Fed should work together to protect the value of the dollar. Here's how they do it. At the Fed's June meeting in two weeks, Ben Bernanke should put in the FOMC minutes a clear reference to an exit strategy that will curb the massive money creation that Art Laffer wrote about in today's Wall Street Journal. Thu, 11 Jun 2009 02:14:30 -0400 Crude Economy Politics Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8640 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8639 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 08:49:42 -0400 Emerging Markets Sector ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8639 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8638 The NBA's marketing pitch to viewers in 2009? This is where "amazing happens." Well, then, imagine a scenario where you felt upbeat about the Indonesian economy. It's mid-January of 2009. And for the first time on a U.S. exchange, you have the opportunity to invest in the Market Vectors Indonesia Index ETF (NYSE: IDX). Wed, 10 Jun 2009 08:43:22 -0400 Asia International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8638 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8637 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 08:39:33 -0400 Hardware Software Technical Analysis Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8637 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8636 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 08:31:57 -0400 Agriculture Asia Aussie/NZ Bonds Broad Market ETFs Crude Currencies Emerging Markets Energy Financials International ETFs Precious Metals Sector ETFs Technical Analysis US REITs David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8636 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8635 If you are an investor looking to spice up your portfolio, you may want to learn more about ETFs focused on mortgages and Russia. And that's just to name a few. Also, if black gold continues to trend higher, what will it mean for investments in oil-producing countries? Check out some more great Exchange-Traded Fund articles for June 10, 2009: Wed, 10 Jun 2009 04:37:40 -0400 Crude Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8635 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8634 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 02:59:30 -0400 Financials Financials Fundamentals Housing Politics The Market Traders' Talk David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8634 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8633 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 02:03:35 -0400 Housing TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8633 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8632 One of the best investment decisions that I've made in 2009 has been overweighting materials ETFs. At the same time, I've cautioned investors time and again to be cognizant of their overall exposure. Wed, 10 Jun 2009 01:50:53 -0400 Asia Emerging Markets International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8632 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8631 I've written a lot on this blog about the concept of follow-through (i.e. the likelihood of up days following up days, and vice-versa), how it has evolved over time, and how it is becoming stronger. Wed, 10 Jun 2009 01:27:53 -0400 Technical Analysis Michael Stokeshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8631 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8630 The morning gap fill took us back to the middle of the eight-day trading range between SPY $92.70 and $95.60 spot on the five-day moving average. At the mid-day, we face some news risk ahead in the form of the Ten-Year Note Auction results and Federal Reserve Beige Book report (link). Just now the AD line is falling back slightly and Cumulative Tick is headed back south, although Up and Down Volume remain fairly evenly matched and the VIX has been level since early morning in the mid-28 range. Wed, 10 Jun 2009 01:09:16 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPY Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8630 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8629 It is according to Rosie's summary points from this morning. (Highlights mine).Bond Market Selloff and Stock Market Meltup Look Overdone The equity bull-run looks overdone: The S&P 500 is priced for around $75 of operating EPS, something I don't see occurring before 2012 (probably won't get the number above $43 per share for this year). This rally has all been multiple expansion - from 15x on trailing EPS at the low to around 23x now. The market is NOT cheap. Wed, 10 Jun 2009 01:07:29 -0400 Economy Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8629 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8628 Some key soundbites:"If the Fed examiners were set upon the Fed's own documents-unlabeled documents-to pass judgment on the Fed's capacity to survive the difficulties it faces in credit, it would shut this institution down.""The Fed is undercapitalized in the same way that Citicorp is undercapitalized.""I think zero is the wrong rate for almost any economy.""So great is the slack in the economy that it will be years before there is anything like a murmur from the inflation front." Wed, 10 Jun 2009 01:04:52 -0400 Economy Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8628 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8626 Back in late March, Index IQ offered the first ETF designed to replicate the performance of hedge fund investing. However, the so-called IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF (NYSE: QAI) tracks an index that the company itself devised; it does not track an independent hedge fund index created by Credit Suisse, Barclays or Dow Jones. Wed, 10 Jun 2009 11:35:42 -0400 International ETFs New ETFs Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8626 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8625 IndexUniverse reported that WisdomTree has filed for some very interesting alternative or hedge fund-like ETFs. The funds; Wed, 10 Jun 2009 11:32:35 -0400 Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8625 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8624 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.5% If fortune cookies carried curses as well as saccharine platitudes, surely one of the most commonly encountered would be "May you live in interesting times."Well, it is getting interesting in the oil market. Rather, interest is building in the market. Wed, 10 Jun 2009 11:27:28 -0400 Crude Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8624 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8623 I hate using the CEO of the Pupper Master Corporation, Government Sachs (GS) as my support , but even HE thinks we're in for a long recession.  Considering Goldman is privy to information many of us will never be allowed to be let in on,it just further supports my views...   Per Reuters Wed, 10 Jun 2009 11:22:44 -0400 TraderMark GS TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8623 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8622 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 10:30:46 -0400 Financials The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8622 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8621 The refinance index was to blame for all the decline as it fell by -11.8%.  The Purchase index meanwhile rose by 1.1%.  The average rate on the 30 year mortgage rose to 5.57% from 5.25%.  A month ago the rate was 4.76% and a year ago the rate was 6.24%.  The higher yields have shut down refinancings.  Higher purchases despite the gain in rates is a positive. Wed, 10 Jun 2009 10:12:43 -0400 Asia Aussie/NZ Bonds Canada Economy Emerging Markets Europe Lenders Technical Analysis Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8621 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8620 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 10:02:37 -0400 Canada Currencies Economy Technical Analysis Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8620 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8619 ETF Watchlist 06/10/2009 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 09:59:19 -0400 ETF Videos Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8619 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8617 It's time for a review. I have added and subtracted from my list of worthwhile commercial and free sites. in this list below, the letter ‘F' stands for ‘free' and ‘C' stands for ‘commercial'. Some sites have both a commercial and free service. Courses Wed, 10 Jun 2009 09:51:06 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8617 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8616 Arthur Laffer advises in today's Wall Street Journal that it's time to "Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates." The market's been telling us no less, as we've been discussing now for some time. Although the deflationary risk has been front and center since the financial crisis erupted last fall, the bigger challenge has always been the next phase, once the Federal Reserve succeeds in driving away the D risk. Wed, 10 Jun 2009 09:47:59 -0400 Bonds Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8616 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8615 Traders chase trends. All traders almost all of the time. Everyone, including the US gov't  likes to blame this phenomenon on greed. In fact the topic du' jour on CNBC is pay caps being instituted by Washington D.C. which are intended in effect to cap greed. Aside from unintended consequences, it won't work. It won't work for capitalism but even beyond that, there is a more fundamental reason that also applies to all traders all the time.  Wed, 10 Jun 2009 09:43:26 -0400 Education Politics The Market Denise Shullhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8615 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8614 Yesterday the VIX closed at 28.27, its lowest close since the VIX ended the day at the 25.66 level on September 12, 2008 - the Friday before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy filing. Wed, 10 Jun 2009 09:30:38 -0400 Financials Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8614 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8613 The Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio is an indicator I haven't discussed on the blog, and not too often in the Subscriber Letter. It is hitting extreme levels at this time and deserves some attention. One word of caution - levels will vary depending on data provider. So while the extremes may differ depending on whose data you use, results should be comparable at those extremes. I use Tradestation. On Tuesday the Nasdaq/NYSE volume 20-day average closed over 1.65. Below is a table showing 1-month returns based on this ratio. Wed, 10 Jun 2009 09:34:45 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8613 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8612 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 09:31:44 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8612 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8611 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 09:28:46 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8611 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8610 A few days ago, Abnormal Returns raised the interesting question of whether it is more important to be right or to make money.  The article cited past work, correctly noted that one could be dollar positive while losing in most cases, and showed behavioral finance literature on the concept of sticking with a thesis, even when it is losing. Wed, 10 Jun 2009 09:21:32 -0400 The Market Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8610 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8609 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 08:53:08 -0400 Farrish Files The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8609 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8608 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 04:18:46 -0400 ETF Right section 120X600 Jim Slaglehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8608 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8607 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 04:17:08 -0400 ETF Right section 120X600 Jim Slaglehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8607 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8606 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 04:14:55 -0400 Article Detail Page 275x229 Jim Slaglehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8606 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8605 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 03:50:59 -0400 Article Detail Page 275x229 Jim Slaglehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8605 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8603 I wanted to do a quick update on our 200 day moving averages; we discussed the disparity between "simple" moving averages and "exponential" last week, in regards to the 200 day. [Jun 3: Why I Use the Exponential Moving Average]At the time the 200 day exponential was at S&P 948, and the simple was at 923. The gap has widened further - exponential is down to about 947 while simple has dropped to about 917. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 08:58:12 -0400 Bonds Technical Analysis TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8603 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8602 President of Claymore Securities Christian Magoon, stops by the greenfaucet set to discuss the latest developments in the ETF industry. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 08:40:57 -0400 Home Page Video Jim Slaglehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8602 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8600 Setting up a new computer is a pain that's for sure. Various components are missing and there are trips to Best Buy who then sell you the wrong part and repeat. This too shall pass. What does this have to do with markets? Absolutely nothing. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 08:31:53 -0400 Agriculture Asia Base Metals Broad Market ETFs Crude Currencies Emerging Markets Energy Financials Hardware International ETFs Other Precious Metals Sector ETFs Software Technical Analysis US REITs David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8600 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8598 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 06:33:10 -0400 New Home Page - 300x250px http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8598 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8597 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 06:31:40 -0400 New Home Page - 300x250px http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8597 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8596 NYSE volume unchanged from yesterday's siesta-inspired participation. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 06:30:10 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8596 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8595 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 06:20:36 -0400 Skyscraper - 160x600 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8595 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8593 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 06:06:21 -0400 Skyscraper - 160x600 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8593 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8592 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 05:28:24 -0400 Commodities Crude Economy Financials Financials Politics Technical Analysis The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8592 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8591 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 04:08:12 -0400 Asia Aussie/NZ Canada Europe Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8591 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8590 Markets are becoming predictable but still entertaining especially if you're a spectator. If you have some TARP money sitting on your trading desk with volume this light you can really push things around. Mon, 08 Jun 2009 06:11:00 -0400 Agriculture Asia Bonds Broad Market ETFs Crude Currencies Emerging Markets Europe Financials International ETFs Nat Gas Precious Metals Sector ETFs Technical Analysis US REITs David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8590 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8589 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 03:05:36 -0400 Economy Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8589 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8588 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 03:05:05 -0400 Asia Aussie/NZ Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8588 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8587 Was Monday's market action a pause to catch a breath, or is it running out of gas? Pundits are on both sides of the fence, but in my view the trend is still up until proven otherwise. A steady dose of positive economic data fueled yet another positive week on Wall Street, led by the surging Small-cap Growth stocks, up 5.9%. The worst performance came from Large-cap Value stocks, which were still up 1.5%. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 02:54:42 -0400 Energy Financials Technical Analysis Telecom David Brownhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8587 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8584 Several factors have contributed to my taking a more bearish stance today, including a VIX:VXV ratio of 0.92, up from a low of 0.919 a little earlier.Among the ways to get long volatility in this environment of rapidly falling volatility is VXX, which looks like an attractive long at the current at 74.79. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 02:31:03 -0400 Options Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8584 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8583 Let me preface this piece by saying I stole this specific instrument from Jeffrey Saut, who mentioned it in his weekly missive. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 02:30:56 -0400 Coal Crude Energy Nat Gas TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8583 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8579 It's happening -   my mail box devoted mainly to advertisements,  is full of ads for infallible systems! The ads are getting better - they no longer just talk about win rates and profits; they also talk about loss rates and losses. Now what can be fairer, right? An ‘iron clad guarantee, and the data to determine the expectancy return - it's gotta be kosher, right?' Hmm... Tue, 09 Jun 2009 01:55:05 -0400 Education Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8579 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8578 On Friday the DX provided the clear buy signal I was anticipating and alluded to in my interview on NDtv on June 4. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 01:54:27 -0400 Currencies Education Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8578 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8577 Could the ETF providers have introduced frontier country investing at a less opportune moment in time? Probably not.It was just about 1 year ago when intrigue in MENA (Middle East North Africa) began to take root. With emerging Asia ETFs and emerging Latin America ETFs having posted extraordinary gains for nearly 6 years, providers began touting the potential of even more exotic investing landscapes. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 01:39:16 -0400 Emerging Markets International ETFs Sector ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8577 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8576 Consistent with the trend, the market has been able to hold its own this morning after a mildly choppy start. Volume is a touch under yesterday's, which is to say exceptionally low. Up and Down Volume are about evenly matched, but Cumulative Tick is moving up sharply at the time of this post. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 12:44:45 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8576 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8575 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.6% Last week, silver staged a breakout move to the upside that had metal aficionados cheering. We mentioned the white metal's outperformance in our June 2 column, "Gold Left Behind By Silver." Tue, 09 Jun 2009 12:41:31 -0400 Options Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8575 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8574 An interesting tidbit from Rosie's am commentary. He points out that between commodity inflation (gas prices), the pounding in mortgages (drop in mortgage refis and implied housing net worth) and dropping wages (yes, the skyrocketing unemployment rate does tend to do that), and there go the purported stimulus package benefits. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 12:31:09 -0400 Bonds Crude Economy Lenders Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8574 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8573 I was recently asked in an interview whether I thought infrastructure is a distinct asset class. My answer was “not likely.” I believe wholeheartedly in the theme and having exposure but it seems like most of the stocks and ETFs correlate a little too close to the broad market to truly be a different asset class. There are a couple of exceptions here and there including, apparently, a company called Tobu Railway in Japan. The ticker in the US is TBURF but it does not look like it has traded in the US in a long time. The ticker in Japan is 9001. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 11:54:36 -0400 International ETFs Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8573 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8572 Barry Ritholtz posted a list today of ideas for fixing financial television. Since my CNBC Boycott post generated some interest (I was interviewed for the fantastic recent CJR piece), I would be remiss in not balancing invective with coverage of some constructive comments. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 11:33:08 -0400 The Market Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8572 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8571 The consequences of adopting a weak dollar and inflationary monetary policy to bail out the economy have begun to manifest themselves, although the real effects of the government's $12.8 trillion dollar recovery plan have only just started to show up. Investors should not be surprised to learn that the commitments, guarantees, and prodigal spending of the past two Administrations have come with harrowing consequences. Surprising or not, these painful consequences are just beginning to appear and are rather insidious in nature. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 10:36:40 -0400 Bonds Commodities Economy Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8571 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8570 10 Reasons Not to Worry 1.  Little positive correlation between strong equities and strong dollar. 2.  "King dollar" was not the story during credit crisis that took EUR back to $1.25. 3.  Dollar sell-off began in March with equity bottom and commodity "reflation." 4.  China diversifying reserves is an old story whose time has come.  Will get priced in slowly.  No panic here. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 10:30:37 -0400 Currencies Economy Traders' Talk Kevin Cookhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8570 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8569 He thinks it is critical that the government/Treasure has a plan to become fiscally responsible at some point. If not the dollar will suffer. Bonds yields will suffer and this in turn will threaten the recovery. Of course, there is not a plan and this has the markets on edge. The dollar has started to weaken on the concerns and comments. El Erian says the market has gotten ahead of itself.  The shorter end of the yield curve has gotten ahead of itself. Tue, 09 Jun 2009 09:51:26 -0400 Currencies Economy Housing Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8569 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8568 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 09:45:41 -0400 Financials Politics David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8568 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8567 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 09:41:49 -0400 Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8567 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8566 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 09:35:09 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8566 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8565 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 09:28:18 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8565 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8564 ETF Watchlist 6/9/2009 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 08:41:18 -0400 ETF Videos Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8564 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8563 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 08:25:06 -0400 Economy Farrish Files The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8563 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8562 This post was inspired by reader Soham Das (author of the Jump Up blog) who asked us to confirm his findings that in the short-term, the Indian stock market behaves opposite of the US market: it is momentum, not contrarian, driven. A simple illustration... Tue, 09 Jun 2009 01:25:55 -0400 Emerging Markets Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Michael Stokeshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8562 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8561 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 01:20:41 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8561 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8560 Over at The Big Picture Barry Ritholtz has some great suggestions about improving financial television.  We agree with the entire list, but especially like the following: Tue, 09 Jun 2009 01:16:46 -0400 The Market Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8560 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8559 Let me be the first one to welcome the markets into summer!  And after the 4th of July, the markets will be ready for a big rally into Labor Day.  What, you're not a believer in the summer rally of 2009?  Someone must be!  The air in the fear balloon has been let out.  If you check out the VIX below each step of the way the daily chart shows greater complacency.  That can be a problem, unless the bears take a stab.Rangebound Markets   Tue, 09 Jun 2009 12:56:58 -0400 Crude Economy Fundamentals Bob Langhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8559 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8557 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 06:55:12 -0400 Header banner Jim Slaglehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8557 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8556 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 06:40:00 -0400 Broad Market ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8556 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8555 Despite the fact that crude oil inventories are high and Americans are driving less, crude oil has been on a tear in recent months.  Just four months ago, NYMEX-traded crude oil went for around $30 barrel.  Now $70 appears likely, perhaps as soon as this week.  Start bracing for a little more pain every time you head to the gas station. There are five distinct categories of energy-related ETFs and ETNs, namely those that track indexes of: Mon, 08 Jun 2009 06:34:04 -0400 Crude Sector ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8555 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8554 World events appear to be falling in line for natural gas. It's a clean energy alternative in an era where "Government Motors" is being asked to think efficient. It's a commodity that most countries value immensely. It could serve as yet another hedge against dollar devaluation. And, it tends to take off when oil gets too big for its britches. Mon, 08 Jun 2009 06:17:42 -0400 Crude Nat Gas Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8554 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8552 The New York Times ran a front-page story today on personal tensions between Larry Summers and other top Obama economic advisors. Parsing through it, it looks like Austan Goolsbee, who argued against the Chrysler bailout, has the cheekiest relationship with Summers. Christina Romer takes a shot at Summers. Geithner does not, though the Treasury man says he’s not afraid to push back against the former Clinton Treasury official and Harvard president. Mon, 08 Jun 2009 04:53:52 -0400 Economy Politics Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8552 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8550 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 03:51:45 -0400 Education Technical Analysis Denise Shullhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8550 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8549 Investors can not wait to sell mortgages so they can buy the brand new iPhone. Speaking of brand new, BB, if you are reading this, how about some fresh QE: after all what's a few trillion $ between friends. Mom and pop have to be buying this whole recovery story after all. Mon, 08 Jun 2009 03:14:56 -0400 Builders Economy Lenders Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8549 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8547 On June 5th, Michael Pento appeared on CNBC Reports to discuss how the government could be running its own version of a Ponzi scheme. To learn more on CNBC Reports, click here. Mon, 08 Jun 2009 02:55:22 -0400 Home Page Video Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8547 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8545 On June 8th, Kevin Cook appeared on CNBC's Squawk on the Street to discuss where stocks are headed.To learn more about CNBC's Squawk on the Street, click here. Mon, 08 Jun 2009 02:59:54 -0400 Home Page Video Kevin Cookhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8545 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8543 No trending/consolidation continues in the USD/JPY with the shorter term chart remaining the focus for buy/sell bias (hourly chart signals are still catching up after Fridays sharp runup). Mon, 08 Jun 2009 02:40:08 -0400 Asia Currencies Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8543 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8542 After gaping lower, the market seemed to find some support in the early hours near SPY S1 ($93.40); however, the VIX scaled a cliff about an hour ago and price has struggled more seriously ever since. Negative Cumulative Tick and building Down Volume suggest that the down draft isn't over yet. That said, there is a potential supportive volume spike forming just now, see how price behaves at the VWAP if it can pull off a small bounce to that level (say $93.50). Mon, 08 Jun 2009 01:53:46 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPY Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8542 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8540 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 01:46:50 -0400 Economy Jim Welshhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8540 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8539 With the weakness in the US Dollar and strength in crude oil, the Canadian Dollar (and respective ETF (NYSE: FXC) have been rallying in a strong impulse up that may be setting up another low-risk opportunity into possible support.  Let’s see it.“FXC” Canadian Dollar ETF Daily: Mon, 08 Jun 2009 01:38:54 -0400 Canada Currencies Economy Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8539 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8538 It's true that the second most coveted ETF by dollars invested in May was the iShares Emerging Market Fund (NYSE: EEM). Investors poured $1.07 billion into EEM... and roughly $800 million more into the Vanguard Emerging Market Fund (NYSE: VWO).(Note: VWO and EEM both track identical indexes... the MSCI Emerging Market Index.) Mon, 08 Jun 2009 01:30:47 -0400 Asia Broad Market ETFs Emerging Markets International ETFs Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs EEM VWO Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8538 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8537 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.9% Stocks fell overnight as commodity companies declined on weaker oil and metals prices. Six hours ahead of the COMEX opening, spot gold was slumping nearly $5 an ounce at $954.60. Gold was later fixed in London at $946.50 and, by the time the New York floor session opened, spot month metal had lopped more than $13 off its Friday settlement value. Mon, 08 Jun 2009 01:22:03 -0400 Agriculture Commodities Sector ETFs Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8537 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8536 The chart below demonstrates the 1 year forward level on the 1 Year treasury. Someone really just went all in on Bernanke's bluff. 2Y/1Y flatteners anyone? Wait, what's that? Every prop desk had a steepener on and was highly levered into it? Basis trade blow up deja vu anyone? Wait for opportunistic hedge funds to be ramping into the flattener and killing who knows how many props on the wrong side of the trade. Mon, 08 Jun 2009 12:56:55 -0400 Bonds Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8536 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8535 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 12:33:17 -0400 Commodities TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8535 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8534 One month ago today in The Banks vs. Technology, I mentioned the divergence between technology and financials and noted, "so far the financials (NYSE: XLF) have done a better job of leading the market up than technology stocks (NYSE: XLK) have done of inspiring the bears." Mon, 08 Jun 2009 12:26:43 -0400 Economy Financials Sector ETFs Tech XLF Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8534 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8533 The world lost one of its foremost financial historians and analysts on Friday, when Peter L. Bernstein died in New York. As an author, editor and investment strategist, Bernstein forged an analytical template for what is now common in the blogosphere, mainstream media and virtually everywhere else that assigns import to the money game: Reading the academic literature and interpreting it for a wider audience. Mon, 08 Jun 2009 12:14:17 -0400 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8533 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8532 Here is this week's Q & A educational post. Answers are in bold. Sorry for the delay, but I was REALLY tired yesterday.---1) Trader Keith Mon, 08 Jun 2009 11:49:26 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8532 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8531 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 11:16:19 -0400 Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8531 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8530 ETF Watchlist 06/08/2009 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 10:15:51 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8530 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8529 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 09:47:58 -0400 Bonds Economy Farrish Files The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8529 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8528 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 09:39:59 -0400 Bonds Economy Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8528 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8527 S&P lowered the sovereign debt rating of Ireland for the 2nd time in 2 months.  They also warned that it may be downgraded further in the future as banking bailout costs were likely to increase.  The rating was cut to AA from AA+.  Mon, 08 Jun 2009 09:34:03 -0400 Currencies Economy Europe Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8527 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8526 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 09:30:31 -0400 Tech Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8526 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8525 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 09:23:58 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8525 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8524 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 09:19:57 -0400 ETF podcasts Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8524 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8523 Volatility Tracker for June 8, 2009 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 02:01:37 -0400 Crude Currencies Options Precious Metals Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8523 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8522 Our ETF rankings provide several interesting insights this week.Weak dollar plays still predominate;The overall market looks healthier; andThere are some surprising new entries to our "top eight." We'll talk about the featured sector first, and catch up with other conclusions in our weekly trading review. Background Mon, 08 Jun 2009 01:48:17 -0400 Broad Market ETFs International ETFs Sector ETFs Semiconductors Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8522 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8521 Contango. Oil ETFs. Futures contracts. USO. OIL. Investing in OIL ETFs is at best confusing. At worst, it can be down right maddening. Learn about the ins and outs of investing in oil below. Furthermore, if oil does make another move, does that mean Treasury ETFs should jump back on your radar? Read today's 6/5/09 features before heading out for the weekend: Sun, 07 Jun 2009 04:53:52 -0400 Crude Sector ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8521 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8520 From a recent article of mine, this is what I was asked, and how I responded: matt Says: June 6th, 20097:19 pm at Edit Mr. Merkel: I think that I saw somewhere (recently) that swap spreads on the long end were negative. I assume (correct me if I'm wrong) that this is the spread over treasuries. How is this possible? What does/did it mean? Sun, 07 Jun 2009 03:28:08 -0400 Bonds Technical Analysis Traders' Talk David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8520 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8519 Sun, 07 Jun 2009 03:21:00 -0400 Broad Market ETFs Earnings Economy International ETFs Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8519 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8518 As much as I enjoy technical analysis and sentiment charts, it is time the chart of the week addressed one of the many fundamental macroeconomic issues currently being debated. Sun, 07 Jun 2009 03:15:56 -0400 Economy Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8518 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8517 Sat, 06 Jun 2009 01:15:53 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8517 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8516 With a headline like that, you might be inclined to say, "Duh! Next you're going to tell me that the sky is blue."  Guilty, I am, but I won't mention the azure sky; it's raining here. ;)  I got here through analyzing the swap curve and asking the question, "When has the swap curve been shaped like this in the past?" Sat, 06 Jun 2009 01:13:48 -0400 Bonds Economy David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8516 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8508 Fri, 05 Jun 2009 07:20:47 -0400 Agriculture Asia Base Metals Bonds Broad Market ETFs Crude Currencies Emerging Markets Energy Europe Financials International ETFs Nat Gas Precious Metals Sector ETFs Tech Technical Analysis US REITs David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8508 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8507 Many of you know Paul Baiocchi as greenfaucet's Asian markets guru.  I know Paul or "Paulie"  as he prefers to be called, as the only 20-something guy who loves boy bands and wears mustard-colored sport coats. Paulie just returned from what he calls "a dream come true on the high seas." Initially, I thought he must have taken someone special on a cruise with him. It turned out to be five special people...and hundreds of their fans. NKOTB baby! NKOTB stands for New Kids On The Block if you didn't already know. Fri, 05 Jun 2009 06:04:40 -0400 Lifestyle The Real Todd Harrisonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8507 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8506 Large oscillations in the pre-session and first hour put in a normal day's full range within minutes, yet left price only somewhat higher. The big trades of the day were really the opening fade and first reaction bounce off of the Five-Day Moving Average/ Pivot and back to the VWAP. Fri, 05 Jun 2009 05:43:30 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8506 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8505 Back on December 23, 2008, I suggested that the ProShares Ultra-Short 20+ Treasury Fund (TBT) could be a successful trader's tool for money leaving the safety of U.S. government bonds. 5 1/2 months and 50%+ gains later, traders should consider exiting TBT. Fri, 05 Jun 2009 05:38:51 -0400 Economy Sector ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8505 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8501 At last count, you could invest in 15 different currencies through 24 unique ETFs. The yen and the euro have more than their fair share of possibilities on investments like the Euro Currency Trust (NYSE: FXE), the Ultra Euro ProShares (NYSE: ULE) and the UltraShort Euro ProShares (NYSE: EUO). Fri, 05 Jun 2009 12:43:22 -0400 International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8501 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8500 Fri, 05 Jun 2009 12:29:07 -0400 Base Metals Crude Energy Hardware The Market Traders' Talk David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8500 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8499 Fri, 05 Jun 2009 12:25:57 -0400 Economy Politics TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8499 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8497 On June 5th, Michael Pento appeared on CNBC's Squawk Box to talk about last month's jobs report. To learn more about CNBC's Squawk Box, click here. Fri, 05 Jun 2009 12:20:21 -0400 Home Page Video Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8497 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8495 If, like Bob Pisani, you refied a week ago at 4.7%, congrats. If not, tough luck. Vigilantes check to you Mr. Bernanke. Fri, 05 Jun 2009 12:20:05 -0400 Economy Lenders Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8495 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8494 Fri, 05 Jun 2009 12:17:48 -0400 Currencies Economy Precious Metals Technical Analysis Adam Hamiltonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8494 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8493 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 9.0% Take a look at that subhead again. Monetary inflation's at 9%. Nine percent. We haven't seen that kind of number since January, when inflation was spiraling downward toward a March low of 6.9%. Fri, 05 Jun 2009 12:14:44 -0400 Base Metals Economy Precious Metals Sector ETFs Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8493 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8490 Fri, 05 Jun 2009 11:52:12 -0400 Currencies Economy Europe Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8490 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8489 In the wake of today’s employment report I have seen a couple of headlines proclaiming the recession to be over. If the recession really is over then chances are the bear market is over too. But what about all the great depression 2.0 and financial Armageddon talk from a few months ago? Did we really go from Armageddon to just a longish recession and a longish bear market in a few months? Could it be that easy? Fri, 05 Jun 2009 11:51:35 -0400 Economy Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8489 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8488 Total Federal Reserve balance sheet assets for the week of June 3 of $2,065 billion consisting of: Fri, 05 Jun 2009 11:48:21 -0400 Economy Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8488 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8487 Fri, 05 Jun 2009 11:43:34 -0400 Education Technical Analysis Kevin Cookhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8487 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8486 Fri, 05 Jun 2009 11:15:31 -0400 Base Metals Economy ETFs Farrish Files The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8486 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8485 Fri, 05 Jun 2009 09:56:16 -0400 Asia Canada Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8485 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8484 Fri, 05 Jun 2009 09:50:02 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8484 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8483 In early March we asked: When Will It End? At the time, we argued that watching the weekly squiggles of new filings for jobless benefits was a productive effort for estimating when the cycle would turn. Fri, 05 Jun 2009 09:47:35 -0400 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8483 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8482 Fri, 05 Jun 2009 09:44:02 -0400 Tech Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8482 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8481 Fri, 05 Jun 2009 09:40:12 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8481 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8480 Abnormal Returns, my favorite investing blog,  had a piece yesterday entitled: Being right is overrated.  It was a good post, but I felt I needed to take the other side of the argument, because I have heard this argument too much recently.  Here is what I wrote: -==-=-==-=-==-==-=-=- Fri, 05 Jun 2009 02:08:05 -0400 Education Personal Finance David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8480 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8479 On a recent trip to Wisconsin we chanced upon a television commercial for the Wisconsin Lottery.  It was insidious, offensive, and probably effective.The commercial was for a crossword scratch game, the kind where you can be an instant winner.  It showed a nerdy guy doing a regular crossword puzzle, and then turning his skill to the lottery version.  He was a winner.Here is a look at the card: (Click image to enlarge) Fri, 05 Jun 2009 02:03:39 -0400 Education Fundamentals Technical Analysis Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8479 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8478 Lately there has been a great deal of talk related to the SPX closing above its 200 day moving average for the first time since the end of 2007. Fri, 05 Jun 2009 01:56:37 -0400 Technical Analysis SPX Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8478 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8477 Thu, 04 Jun 2009 07:35:59 -0400 Premium Newsletter http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8477 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8476 Testifying before the House Budget Committee this week, Ben Bernanke said that when the time comes, the Fed will raise interest rates in order to stop inflation from building in the next recovery. He also asked for "fiscal balance" to sustain financial stability. On the surface -- in terms of keeping prices stable and restoring value to the softening U.S. dollar -- this is positive. Surely Mr. Bernanke wants to do right for America, and he's giving it his best shot. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 07:18:16 -0400 Economy Politics Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8476 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8473 Thu, 04 Jun 2009 05:32:27 -0400 Asia Emerging Markets New ETFs Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8473 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8472 However, Cumulative Tick is steadily moving higher, as is Up Volume so we appear to be setting up for a breakout. Nevertheless, so far the declining Five-day Moving Average has kept a lid on any attempt to close yesterday's gap. Volume is lower than May 1st, so careful of fast breaks either way and don't forget tomorrow is the official jobs report. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 03:46:50 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8472 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8471 I listed the over under on the "reflation" trade yesterday as "2 days". So it was the under. The thesis is back after a very short vacation. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 02:54:29 -0400 Earnings TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8471 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8470 A short one for the next couple of issues: I have a few personal issues that are consuming my time. In my ten or so years with Dr. George Lianos, one of the aspects of success that he illuminated was the degree to which long-term success was tied to constant honesty. Even that idea took a while to sink through my defenses. I pride myself on keeping my word to myself and to others; this necessarily, I thought, meant that I was always honest. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 02:45:24 -0400 Education Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8470 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8469 Mortgage vigilantes out in full force today, calling Bernanke's bluff. Spread to 10 Years galloping fast as well. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 02:35:04 -0400 Financials Housing Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8469 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8468 After leaving interest rates unchanged at 1 percent, ECB President Trichet's tone at the accompanying press conference represents the Governing Council's overall resistance to being too dovish. Despite internal debates and prior speculation of a larger and broader asset purchase program, the ECB stuck to their initial plan of buying up to ECB 60 billion in euro denominated covered bonds on the primary and secondary markets. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 02:18:06 -0400 Bonds Currencies Europe Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8468 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8467 With three central bank interest rate decisions behind us, the foreign exchange market's focus turns to Friday's non-farm payrolls report. Based upon the leading indicators for non-farm payrolls, all signs point to moderating job losses. However two central questions remain - how much will the improvement be and how will the dollar respond. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 02:12:53 -0400 Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8467 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8466 The U.S. dollar is hovering at 5-month lows. And there's no shortage of economic prognosticators who believe that the U.S. dollar's devaluation is in the early stages of a total meltdown. Jim Rogers opined that the S&P 500 could go to 50,000 and it wouldn't matter because the dollar will be worthless. Nouriel Roubini, widely credited with "calling" the financial crisis, explains that the Chinese yuan is ready to overtake the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. Heck, Addison Wiggin wrote The Demise of the Dollar in 2005. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 02:12:00 -0400 Currencies International ETFs Precious Metals Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8466 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8464 Investors and the financial media have been excited of late about the S&P 500 crossing above its 200-day moving average: Harris Private Bank and Morgan Asset Management say the advance may indicate the bear market in U.S. equities that began in October 2007 is over, heralding more gains after a three- month, 39 percent increase. Analysts who base forecasts on price charts consider crossing above a moving average bullish because it shows stocks are rising faster than the long-term trend. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 12:56:24 -0400 Technical Analysis Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8464 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8462 After a peculiar pick up in April, the chain store sales trendline has reverted to a complete collapse, dropping a whopping and record 4.6% in May. Look like tax refund stimulus benefits have done their temporary magic and now all trends are back on their usual course.Below is the definition on Chain Store Sales for those unfamiliar: Thu, 04 Jun 2009 12:52:06 -0400 Economy Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8462 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8461 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.9% Most commodity traders have at least some passing acquaintance with seasonality - the tendency for goods' prices to strengthen or weaken at different times during the year. After all, there are times appropriate for the planting and harvest of agricultural commodities such as corn and cotton and, as a consequence, periods of relative dearth and surplus. Seasonality isn't limited to food and fiber, though. Were you aware that gold exhibits seasonality, too? Thu, 04 Jun 2009 12:47:48 -0400 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8461 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8460 ETF Grind is reporting that the GlobalX FTSE Peru 20 ETF will soon be here. GlobalX brought a Columbia ETF recently with ticker GXG. The timing was fortuitous as the funds has gone straight up slightly outperforming the broader iShares Emerging Market ETF (NYSE: EEM). Thu, 04 Jun 2009 12:16:20 -0400 Emerging Markets International ETFs New ETFs Roger's World EEM Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8460 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8459 Comments as of Wednesday's close: Risk assets have been benefiting from a weakening U.S. dollar. On Wednesday, the dollar strengthened on concerns about the economy (acting as a safe haven). From a technical perspective the dollar index has some support near 79.05 and 78.98 (today's low was 78.33 - we are at 79.53 now). Last time these areas came into play, a three week countertrend rally followed, which is one reason we have been taking relatively small positions in recent weeks. A multi-week dollar counter-trend move is a possibility - we just need to be aware of it. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 11:54:04 -0400 Currencies Energy Technical Analysis Chris Ciovaccohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8459 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8458 The Option Greeks  Thu, 04 Jun 2009 11:50:58 -0400 Education Fundamentals Options Precious Metals Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8458 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8457 Thu, 04 Jun 2009 11:06:50 -0400 Economy Emerging Markets Energy Financials The Market Traders' Talk David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8457 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8456 In the preceding three articles on "Probability and System Trading," I established that at the core of long-term success for short-term traders is the fundamental knowledge-skill set of understanding and applying probability dynamics.  Without a solid grasp of probability mechanics and associated risk concepts, the trader is lost at sea, destined to be thrown about and eventually wrecked. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 11:01:21 -0400 Education Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Kevin Cookhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8456 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8455 For the first time in nearly a year and a half, the S&P 500 popped above its long-term trend line on Tuesday...before promptly dropping back below on Wednesday. If nothing else, that it's so near the 200-day moving average is a signal for investors to get ready to wade back into the markets, if they haven't done so already. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 10:59:47 -0400 ETFs The Market Tom Lydonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8455 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8454 Thu, 04 Jun 2009 09:21:50 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8454 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8453 Thu, 04 Jun 2009 09:42:29 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8453 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8452 This piece is an experiment.  I'm not exactly sure how this will turn out by the time I am done, so if at the end you think I blew it, please break it to me gently. Thu, 04 Jun 2009 09:38:07 -0400 Education Financials Personal Finance David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8452 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8451 Thu, 04 Jun 2009 09:33:10 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8451 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8450 Make note that we are in a neutral range between 925-950. I already took the liberty to draw my boxes on the SPX charts below: Thu, 04 Jun 2009 09:31:13 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception SPX John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8450 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8449 Thu, 04 Jun 2009 09:06:00 -0400 Farrish Files The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8449 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8448 MarketWatch tells us that today's selling was concern about the labor market and the resulting economic contribution of consumers.We sympathize with journalists who need a daily lead to explain modest market moves.  We are amazed that market participants suddenly started to worry about Friday's jobless report."Forecasting" the Employment Report Thu, 04 Jun 2009 12:14:32 -0400 Economy Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8448 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8446 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 07:36:05 -0400 Travel Patrick Reillyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8446 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8444 Some have predicted a "Zombie Summer" which might be right as investors await proof that a real economic recovery is in the offing. But, just when you thought they might break this camp job they've been working on we got the obligatory "stick save" into the close. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 07:30:02 -0400 Agriculture Asia Bonds Broad Market ETFs Crude Currencies Emerging Markets Energy International ETFs Precious Metals Sector ETFs Technical Analysis US REITs David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8444 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8443 I was surprised by the volume of the feedback I received from last week's Using Options to Control Risk in Leveraged ETFs. Clearly there is a great deal of interest in options and leveraged ETFs. Among the emails I received were several questions about strategies associated with ETFs. For the record, my intent here is not to advocate a particular strategy, but merely to illuminate various strategic building blocks that I believe should be part of the trading arsenal of any options trader. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 07:26:16 -0400 Broad Market ETFs Options Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8443 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8442 And round and round the easy money carasoul we go... pulling money out of taxpayers futures to subsidize consumption today. What's under shell #1? shell #2? You don't know - because I keep moving them around... and we call it prosperity.************** Overheard in back halls of Chrysler car lot... Wed, 03 Jun 2009 04:38:02 -0400 TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8442 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8441  CAUTIONS ABOUT COSTS FROM U.S. BUDGET DEFICITU.S. NEEDS TO AVOID AN INFLATIONARY OUTBREAKVERY TO BE SLOWER, MORE FRAGILE THAN WE HOPE FORECONOMIC IMBALANCES PLACE GROWTH AT RISKUNEMPLOYMENT MAY DECLINE SLOWER THAN ANYONE WANTSCURRENT ACCOMODATION'WILL NEED TO BE WITHDRAWNSAYS RECESSION MAY END IN SECOND HALF OF 2009 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 03:52:56 -0400 The Market Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8441 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8440 Money talks, and earnings call transcripts walk. At least that is the case for homebuilder Toll Brothers, whose chairman Bob decided to provide some optimism during his Q1 2009 earnings call and then proceeded to dump stock not once, not twice, but seven times in a span of one month. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 03:45:25 -0400 Housing Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8440 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8439 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 03:27:48 -0400 Bonds Personal Finance Politics The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8439 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8438 The following article is excerpted from Club Elliott Wave International's post "Nikkei and NASDAQ:  History in the Remaking" - only I have added charts for emphasis. Let's take a long-term monthly view of Japan's Nikkei Index showing the crash of 2000 and 2008: Wed, 03 Jun 2009 01:59:16 -0400 Asia Tech Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8438 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8437 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 01:56:32 -0400 TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8437 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8436 Yields on treasury bonds have been rising... and many say that this is an inevitable trend. Yet bond income investors shouldn't fret about falling prices of treasury bonds. (You were in it for the income stream and safety... weren't you?!)Regardless of U.S. treasury yields, bond investors have a variety of bond ETF choices to augment their interest income. What's more, in many instances, one may anticipate a bit of capital appreciation. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 01:47:13 -0400 Emerging Markets International ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8436 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8435 The mainstream media has put a bright shimmering light on the topic of inflation. Yet for all of the focus on hedging against hyperinflation, fiat currencies and/or a weak dollar, the gleam of precious metal ETFs is less than the "shine" of industrial metal ETFs like copper. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:59:06 -0400 Base Metals Precious Metals Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8435 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8434 The S&P 500 has spent most of the morning in a relatively tight range between its second level of Floor Trader Level support (SPY S2 = $93.35) and Volume Weighted Average Price. However, internals show building pressure for more prospective downside, including weakness among the leaders, a rising VIX and grossly outpacing Down Volume. Energy has been the big loser as the dollar gains strength. Watch that support level closely. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:52:48 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8434 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8432 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:37:39 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8432 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8431 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.9% July crude oil slid lower overnight after ending the Tuesday floor session at $68.55 a barrel. Profit-taking ratcheted prices downward in electronic trading after follow-through to a $68.95 upthrust fizzled. Fresh selling pushed prices below $67.50 ahead of the commencement of the Wednesday floor session and the release of the weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration (AMEX: EIA) inventory report. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:30:22 -0400 Energy Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8431 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8430 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:26:09 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8430 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8429 We finally have a meaningful pullback in the currency market and I strongly believe that rather than being a top, this is an opportunity to add to short dollar positions. The currencies that I am the most bullish the dollar against are the Australian dollar and British pound. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:23:02 -0400 Aussie/NZ Currencies Economy Europe Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8429 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8428 We are trading in a new range between 925-950. I do not advise rapidly switching in and out of long and short positions, or daytrading like a madman. Instead, raise some cash and/or sit tight unless you want to whipsawed to death. I am at 60% cash, and raising 50% cash or more is my standard response during times of consolidation.  Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:04:31 -0400 The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8428 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8427 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:04:07 -0400 Technical Analysis The Market Traders' Talk David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8427 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8426 Inflation's still not a risk but arguably neither is deflation. We're not quite ready to officially claim that the D risk has been vanquished, but we're close. As it turns out, we're not alone. The bond market is increasingly inclined to turn the page on the fear that a deflationary spiral may threaten. But if the deflation risk is passing, as it seems to be, the change doesn't mean that inflation is back. There's no switch that turns one off and the other on as cleanly as flicking on a light. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 11:53:00 -0400 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8426 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8425 Alphaville has a post up in which they note some work from BoNY Mellon that cites the very real possibility that “certain governments are seriously deliberating the USD’s hegemony as a reserve currency and even its stability over the longer-term.” Wed, 03 Jun 2009 11:44:20 -0400 Asia Aussie/NZ Bonds Canada Currencies Emerging Markets Europe Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8425 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8424 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 11:43:48 -0400 Education Options Technical Analysis Kevin Cookhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8424 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8423 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 10:57:10 -0400 Bonds Economy ETFs Financials Financials New ETFs Personal Finance Speciality ETFs The Market David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8423 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8422 David Rosenberg (now of Gluskin Sheff) wrote this in a note yesterday to clients: TWO HISTORICAL FACTOIDS UNDERSCORING JUST HOW OVERBOUGHT THIS MARKET REALLY IS: Going back to 1950, not once has the S&P 500 managed to surge more than 40% in advance of the recession ending. I think mostly everyone would agree that while the recession may be in its final stages, it is not over just yet. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 09:45:25 -0400 Economy Technical Analysis Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8422 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8421 The EUR/USD has marched lower as well today as the dollar selling ceases with the news out of China on the dollar acceptance as a reserve currency and partner.  Wed, 03 Jun 2009 09:28:27 -0400 Currencies Europe Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8421 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8420 The ADP came out at 532K vs -525e. Seeing some stabilizing of employment.  Perhaps declines not as rapidly going forward.  The prior month was revised to -545K from -491K. This was more in line with the NFP which came in at -539K last month. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 09:23:21 -0400 Economy Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8420 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8419 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 09:19:44 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8419 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8418 Half of my career, I have worked for bosses who were actuaries, and half not.  Half of my career, I worked for bosses that were intellectually curious, and half not.  There was a strong, but not perfect correlation between the two - most actuaries are intellectually curious, but there are a few that aren't. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 09:18:02 -0400 Bonds Education David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8418 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8417 Huron Blackheart, Tyrant of Badab, Chapter Master of the Astral Claws, Servant of Warmaster Horus Wed, 03 Jun 2009 09:14:43 -0400 Biotech Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8417 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8416 ETF Watchlist 06/03/2009 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 09:09:09 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8416 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8415 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 08:38:30 -0400 Economy Farrish Files Sector ETFs The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8415 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8414 All of the results below have been independently-audited in real-time by at least one third-party. Visit MarketSci.com for links to third-party audits and to learn more about accessing our strategies via a managed account or subscription. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 01:39:28 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Michael Stokeshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8414 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8413 US Equities responded favorably to morning news about pending home sales.  The data showed a third consecutive month of gains, actually up 6.7% over the prior month.  Some pundits favor the year-over-year comparison, which was up 3.2%.  It certainly seems like good news.Commentators quickly pointed out some problems with the data ---- the sample size is small and sampling error is large.  Pending sales do not always translate into actual sales.  It is only one month.  Etc.The Sad Truth about Housing Data Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:17:36 -0400 Builders Economy Lenders Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8413 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8411 For many investors the thought of investing in gold is a foreign one. This is not exclusive to individuals either. For years institutions neglected to include gold in asset allocations and refrained from publishing research on individual mining companies. It was not until gold began its ascension to its nominal highs last year that talk of the sector began to heat up. Now it seems those institutions with the most at risk are starting to take notice, finally. Tue, 02 Jun 2009 07:42:57 -0400 Economy Precious Metals Paul Baiocchihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8411 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8410 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 07:28:29 -0400 Agriculture Asia Bonds Broad Market ETFs Crude Currencies Emerging Markets Energy Europe International ETFs Nat Gas Precious Metals Sector ETFs Technical Analysis David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8410 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8409 All I can say is wow.  Some plain spoken sense coming from a politician.  I don't think there is much I can add to this remarkable series of statements, outside of can we make a trade?  Bernanke would make an excellent head of state for Germany; I assume they manufacture helicopters and printing presses there? Keep in mind if you are not familiar with Germany's history, people there speak from experience...    Tue, 02 Jun 2009 07:21:56 -0400 TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8409 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8408 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 07:09:52 -0400 Economy Financials The Market Traders' Talk David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8408 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8407 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 06:42:20 -0400 New ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8407 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8406 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 06:39:13 -0400 ETFs The Market Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8406 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8405 As insurance companies, banks, and endowments continue to scale back hedge fund investments, a new survey from Barclays finds that pension plans and wealthy families may be increasing their investments. Such investors have about 14 percent of their assets in cash, with almost 80 percent of this group planning to allocated money to hedge funds during 2009 (see Bloomberg article). Tue, 02 Jun 2009 04:05:48 -0400 Economy Technical Analysis The Market Traders' Talk David Enkehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8405 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8404 It is becoming painfully obvious that the Fed, Treasury, and Administration's disastrous recovery plan hinges on the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. Their specious strategy stems from the belief that a falling currency can re-ignite exports and spark a recovery in manufacturing while putting a floor in U.S. asset prices. But just as the President's initials indicate, the plan stinks of B.O. Tue, 02 Jun 2009 04:05:47 -0400 Economy Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8404 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8403 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 02:52:21 -0400 Economy Financials Technical Analysis Bob Langhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8403 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8402 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 01:37:53 -0400 Economy Politics Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8402 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8401 Wasn't it Burl Ives who sang about the benefits of silver and gold? As a narrating snowman in the animated Christmas classic, "Rudolph, the Red-Nosed Reindeer," Mr. Ives asks how you measure its worth. Answer? Just by the pleasure it gives here on earth. Of course, Rudolph and his cast of misfits came to the television screen 45 years ago. Since then, spot prices of silver and gold have risen considerably. And their "value" seems to depend a bit less on pleasure, and a bit more on perceptions of precious metals as an asset class. Tue, 02 Jun 2009 01:20:57 -0400 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8401 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8400 Lately it seems as if the market has only two directions: up and sideways. Since the March 6th bottom, that has not been entirely the case, but it hasn't been too far from the truth. Tue, 02 Jun 2009 01:06:57 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8400 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8399 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 12:53:21 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8399 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8398 While the main tech horsemen get all the press, the secondary names are acting very well. Instead of selling, since I only have about 40% long allocation I am placing trailing stops in case the market ever goes down for more than 3-5% again so I can lock in gains. I am changing these (moving them up) almost every day it seems but for now Tue, 02 Jun 2009 12:53:02 -0400 Tech TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8398 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8397 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 12:46:46 -0400 Bonds Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8397 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8396 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 12:42:55 -0400 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8396 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8395 I said yesterday that if we saw a bullish move yesterday, I'd review the S&P today. When the market open-gapped yesterday, I lowered the stop on my shorts to just above the opening 60-minute high. The resulting stop-out cost me about 0.75% after including the results of the two prior open-gap trades. I did not reinstate my shorts because I wanted to see what the market would do today. Figure 1 is the normalised volume. It shows: Tue, 02 Jun 2009 11:56:41 -0400 Education Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8395 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8394 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 10:33:25 -0400 Currencies Economy Financials Steve Savillehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8394 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8393 GM is set to announce the sale of Hummer for $100-$200 million at some point today, marking the most anyone paid for one of those since Eliot Spitzer. As Zero Hedge reported, based on GM's optimistic cash burn projections, this will plug the hole...from 10-15 hours of operation. Regardless, the 3,000 jobs saved by the sale of the too big to fail gas guzzler will be very happy. Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:58:06 -0400 Economy Politics Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8393 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8392 The world of futures traders in Chicago is filled with all types, from old-school gun-slingers to new-school quants.  In between these extremes are many evolving players and methods, from former pit scalpers turned upstairs electronic position traders, to fundamental analysts turned automated technical system traders.  The CME and CBOT trading floors and culture have always been a great place to learn the craft because of this diversity of ways to "make a small fortune in commodities." Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:51:41 -0400 Education Technical Analysis Traders' Talk CME Kevin Cookhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8392 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8391 The index rose by another 12% for the 22nd straight increase.  The level is at the highest level since September 25th, 2008.  Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:43:29 -0400 Crude Currencies Economy Shipping Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8391 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8390 Nowadays, you'd be hard-pressed to miss the ads on television or in newspapers and magazines either touting gold for sale or pitching you to sell your scrap jewelry to a refiner. Gold, to put it plainly, is in demand.There's nothing new about that except perhaps the ever-rising price targets and fever pitch taken by the infomercial gold sellers. Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:39:07 -0400 Education Personal Finance Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8390 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8389 The GM news is a big business story, the largest industrial bankruptcy in history.Is it a big investment story? Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:34:06 -0400 Economy Politics Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8389 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8388 Last week, in VIX and More Stock of the Week Selection Up 343% in 14 Months, I promised to post on the blog the current Stock of the Week selection as long as the winning streak (now at 12 weeks and counting) continues. Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:31:36 -0400 The Market Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8388 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8387 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:29:48 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8387 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8386 haven't done it recently, but I begin with a bunch of my old CC posts from five years ago: Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:27:45 -0400 Bonds Economy Financials David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8386 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8385 If you follow me on Twitter (VIXandMore on Twitter), you probably saw my surprise when I asked rhetorically, "When is the last time the VIX was making new intraday highs with the $DJIA up 230?" While I can't answer that question (though my guess is that today was a first), I did check to see if today's close set a record for greatest percentage gains by both the VIX (+3.87%) and the SPX (+2.58%) on the same day. Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:24:23 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPX Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8385 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8384 I told you we were going higher, didn't I? Yet, some of you kept shorting last week or all of last month, practically volunteering to stand outside of a 7-11 with a cup in your hand. Banking coin isn't free, you have to earn it. Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:15:16 -0400 Technical Analysis The Exception John C. Leehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8384 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8383 ETF Watchlist 06/02/2009 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:08:02 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8383 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8381 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 08:52:29 -0400 Economy Farrish Files Financials The Market Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8381 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8380 I found great irony in the fact yesterday American markets rocketed higher on a Chinese purchasing manager index reading, as the industrial co that literally defined America for a few decades went bankrupt.  It was almost like a passing of the proverbial torch.  As they (used to) say, as goes General Motors so goes the country.  People now smirk at that, but I'd say... really has it changed?  The policies are almost identical.  The only difference is unlike the federal government who has a printing press, General Motors does not. Mon, 01 Jun 2009 08:53:35 -0400 Economy TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8380 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8379 Today's update on personal income and spending deserves a closer-than-usual inspection. The devil, along with the government's stimulus program, is in the details. First the good news, such as it is: disposable personal income rose a strong 1.1% in April, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. That's a gain worthy of an economic expansion of the strongest order. What, then, is it doing here, in the middle of the deepest recession since the 1930s? Mon, 01 Jun 2009 08:23:27 -0400 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8379 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8378 The past few weeks have seen a spate of positive corporate earnings surprises and economic data releases. Not surprisingly, this has fueled a surge in the market which continues unabated as I write this on Monday, June 1. The SPX successfully surged past major resistance at the 200-day moving average and set a new high for the year at 946. This certainly bodes well looking forward. Mon, 01 Jun 2009 08:01:22 -0400 Energy Financials Technical Analysis Telecom SPX David Brownhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8378 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8377 Mon, 01 Jun 2009 07:50:56 -0400 Emerging Markets International ETFs TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8377 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8372 Friday afternoon's last minute major ramp job set the stage for today's breakout. It was either pure manipulation, margin call recklessness before month end or some combination of black box strategies. Rumors swirled that it was JPM in the pits buying tens of thousands of S&P futures contracts with some leftover TARP money. Others suggest a conspiracy that it was the government. We'll never know probably. Mon, 01 Jun 2009 07:22:35 -0400 Agriculture Asia Bonds Broad Market ETFs Crude Currencies Emerging Markets Energy Europe Financials International ETFs Precious Metals Sector ETFs Technical Analysis JPM David Fryhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8372 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8371 I remember when I first began to think that U.S. economic dominance was waning. I lived in Taiwan at the time, and things in Asia were moving with surprising speed. First came the '87 crash, which had me questioning U.S. stock market stability. Thereafter, the S&L banking crisis solidified my fears that the "#1 economy" was falling apart. (Note: Ross Perot was amusingly persuasive with those charts too!) Mon, 01 Jun 2009 05:55:48 -0400 Broad Market ETFs International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8371 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8370 Last November I wrote an article for theStreet.com that was generally critical of the Alaska Permanent Fund. The article goes into detail about what the fund is but the short explanation is a fund that collects taxes from the oil companies that operate in the state, that pool of money is managed in the capital markets and pays out a dividend to Alaska residents. Mon, 01 Jun 2009 04:50:38 -0400 Roger's World Roger Nusbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8370 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8369 Mon, 01 Jun 2009 02:30:54 -0400 Bonds Currencies Economy Precious Metals Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8369 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8368 Figure 1 shows the cash as at Friday; and as at Friday's close, the cash holds (There is currently about 5.5 point premium cash over September).FIGURE 1 Time & PriceThe points to note in Figure 1: Mon, 01 Jun 2009 02:15:07 -0400 Education Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8368 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8367 Mon, 01 Jun 2009 02:02:57 -0400 The Market Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8367 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8365 The PPT is now hiring a specialist who will overhaul the trading system, and be able to buy both SPOOs and 10 Years at the same time. The current infrastructure allows for the purchase of just one of the two at a time. Today, it's not the 10 Year. Mon, 01 Jun 2009 01:54:00 -0400 Bonds Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8365 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8364 Below I have captured an excerpt of the excellent StockCharts Market Summary page, which provides a graphical and numerical overview of the day's action across a wide variety of indices, sectors, geographies and asset classes. Mon, 01 Jun 2009 01:42:02 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8364 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8363 Price gapped higher on the Personal Income/ Spending beats, and has maintained its trajectory after some narrow range consolidation near SPY R2 on the Construction results. Cumulative Tick is roaring ahead, the VIX is down-sloping and the Advance - Decline line is at very robust levels. I'd be careful about trying to fade this strong beginning of month markup. Minimally consider legging into your positions. Mon, 01 Jun 2009 01:38:26 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPY Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8363 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8362 Pacific Investment Management Company of Newport Beach, California, is getting into the ETF business. The world-renowned bond giant (a.k.a.) PIMCO sees an opportunity to compete through lower cost and name recognition. Many large mutual fund companies blew the opportunity to move with the future. Fidelity comes to mind. Vanguard, on the other hand, recognized the trend towards Barclay's iShares and State Street SPDRs early enough that Vanguard became a significant player on the ETF indexing scene. Mon, 01 Jun 2009 01:27:50 -0400 Bonds Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8362 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8361 The squiggly lines now favor the bulls... the last 10-15 minute markup on Friday is quickly forgotten and now just looks like a bullish development on the charts. Add together today's gap up and technical analysts across the land are giddy. Mon, 01 Jun 2009 12:35:32 -0400 Technical Analysis TraderMark TraderMarkhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8361 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8359 ETF Watchlist 06/01/2009 Mon, 01 Jun 2009 12:22:47 -0400 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8359 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8357 Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.5% If last week was good for gold bulls, silver aficionados were positively ecstatic. London gold finished Friday up 2.1% for the week at $972, while silver popped 5.9% to the upside at $15.52.It was a breakout week for both metals, but silver made the bolder move. For the year, spot gold is up 12.4%; cash silver's risen a whopping 43.8%. London (A.M.) Silver Mon, 01 Jun 2009 12:06:23 -0400 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8357 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8356 Back in 2001-2002 I used the term "retroflation" in a series of newsletters and articles to describe what I saw as a battle between the forces of inflation and deflation.  The Kress 30-year cycle had peaked in late 1999 and with it the 1990s bull market in stocks.  The U.S. was in the throes of economic recession and tech stocks were in freefall.  Yet the Kress cycles called for a major bottom in late 2002 with the 6-year/12-year cycle bottoming and the Fed was already beginning to aggressive cut interest rates, showing that it was serious about re-inflating the economy. Mon, 01 Jun 2009 11:59:40 -0400 Technical Analysis Clif Drokehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/8356 http://www.greenfauc