http://www.greenfaucet.com/more-exclusives/86188?user_id=-1 en http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15056 Wed, 17 Mar 2010 06:06:13 -0400 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15056 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15055 Huntington Beach, CA, March 17, 2010 - Delta Global Indices today announced the rebalancing of the Delta Global Shipping Index (Index Ticker: DGAGSI), which tracks the global shipping sector. Standard & Poor's Index Services publishes the Index, which was developed and is maintained by Delta Global Indices, LLC, an affiliate of Delta Global Advisors, Inc. Delta Global Indices, LLC specializes in global markets index development. Wed, 17 Mar 2010 04:39:38 -0400 Shipping Chip Hanlonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15055 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15054 17-Month Highs! Wed, 17 Mar 2010 04:14:33 -0400 Economy Philip Davishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15054 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15049 While the title might not sound that interesting, it can be important to watch "Angular Momentum," or in simple terms - the change in the angles of rising trendlines - of the current SPY and S&P 500 intraday charts, which highlights an important point about the recent rallies. Let's take a look at the recent "Angular Momentum" chart and see what I mean: Wed, 17 Mar 2010 03:13:25 -0400 Education Technical Analysis SPY Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15049 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15048 Unlike most people who analyze investments, I think there are periods of time where domestic long-only investors may be consigned to low or even negative returns.  As investors, we are generally optimists; we don’t like can’t win situations like the Kobayashi Maru. Wed, 17 Mar 2010 02:39:46 -0400 The Market David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15048 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15047 The market is putting in a solid trend-day follow through to yesterday's FOMC inspired launch.  While internals look very strong, the SPY is seeing strong mid-day resistance at its second pivot of $117.20. Wed, 17 Mar 2010 02:37:51 -0400 Traders' Talk SPY Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15047 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15046 Last week, I wrote that shorting AUD/NZD is my favorite trade. At that time, I said that if the currency pair rallies back above 1.31, then the uptrend has resumed and my call is wrong. However, AUD/NZD tortured me and came within 2 pips of 1.31 (1.3098) before reversing sharply lower. There is no major support in the currency pair until 1.2775, but as indicators adjust to the movements in price, so have support levels. The 1.2850 level is now the new support and that's where I am targeting. Wed, 17 Mar 2010 02:37:23 -0400 Aussie/NZ Currencies Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15046 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15045 As the market continues its slow but steady march further into overbought territory, Sabrient's SectorCast-ETF rankings are holding steady. Energy, Healthcare and Financials still look undervalued, while Telecom, Industrials, and Materials look overvalued. Wed, 17 Mar 2010 01:30:27 -0400 Broad Market ETFs Technical Analysis Scott Martindalehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15045 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15044 It's more of a mathematical curiosity than anything else, but check out the odds of 14 successive up-days below, the record for which looks to get set by the SPY today. If that's not a pot of leprechaun gold for the bulls on this St. Pat's day, I don't know what is! Wed, 17 Mar 2010 01:08:17 -0400 Traders' Talk SPY Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15044 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15042 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.0%U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by a million barrels, the eighth consecutive weekly buildup reported by the U.S. Energy Department. The industry-supported American Petroleum Institute had forecast a 403,000-barrel addition, while sell-side analysts had eyed gains ranging from 400,000 to 1.1 million barrels. Wed, 17 Mar 2010 01:03:35 -0400 Crude Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15042 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15041 I will be appearing on CNBC's Fast Money tonight! My segment will occur promptly at 5:00 EST. Be sure to tune in, should be fun! Wed, 17 Mar 2010 12:49:19 -0400 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15041 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15040 Many prognosticators describe the dire jobless recovery, then follows it up with bearish outlooks on the S&P 500. Similarly, you’ll read how increases in business confidence are a precursor to hiring… ergo, the cyclical bull for stocks has further to stampede. When did stock market analysts become so one-dimensional? At one point did jobs… or even the broader economy… receive an award for outstanding achievement in the field of market directionality. (Yes, there’s a Simpsons reference in there for animation enthusiasts.) Wed, 17 Mar 2010 12:39:49 -0400 International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15040 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15039 Neither rain, nor sleet, nor snow, nor economic recovery, nor rising gold and commodities, nor $2.2 trillion in money-creation will stop the Federal Reserve from remaining ultra-easy. This is what I call being militantly dovish. That's how I'm reading yesterday's FOMC announcement. Here's my basic criticism of Bernanke & Co.: The emergency is over, folks. The recession ended last June. An emergency zero interest rate is no longer necessary. Wed, 17 Mar 2010 12:24:20 -0400 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15039 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15038 Wed, 17 Mar 2010 12:21:47 -0400 Crude Economy Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15038 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15037 Wed, 17 Mar 2010 12:12:41 -0400 Asia Crude Currencies Economy Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15037 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15036 In this blog, I attach the ‘climax’ - James’ four part ’secret to FX trading success’.I totally agree with the four principles: Wed, 17 Mar 2010 11:39:18 -0400 Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15036 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15035 Estimating the equity risk premium is the holy grail of investing. That's because the allocation to the stock market is, for most investors, the primary driver of risk in the portfolio. As a general proposition, one can say that the allocation to equities will (for good or ill) go a long way in determining the portfolio's return in the long run, and perhaps over the short- and medium-term horizons as well. Wed, 17 Mar 2010 11:15:42 -0400 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15035 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15034 Wed, 17 Mar 2010 11:05:22 -0400 Crude Economy Politics Dock David Treecehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15034 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15033 Wed, 17 Mar 2010 08:47:39 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15033 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15032 The Chinese new year has only just started, and already trade tensions are ratcheting up. This is perhaps appropriate - astrologers tell us that the year of the Tiger is often a year of instability and conflict - and I suspect things will almost certainly get worse. The timing of various domestic political events in the US, China and Europe will make it harder than ever for any of these countries to back down before 2012 (by which time, presumably, the world will have ended anyway). Wed, 17 Mar 2010 08:46:11 -0400 Asia Currencies Economy The Market Michael Pettishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15032 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15031    Wed, 17 Mar 2010 08:39:46 -0400 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15031 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15030 Wed, 17 Mar 2010 08:37:20 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15030 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15029 Let me get this out of the way… I am NOT calling the next crash. Let the doomsayers from Whitney to Roubini to Farrell ply their trades as perma-bears… that’s not the way that I roll. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 06:36:09 -0400 Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15029 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15028 Tue, 16 Mar 2010 06:20:55 -0400 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15028 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15027 The U.S. central bank as expected kept interest rates near zero and continued to commit to keeping rates exceptionally low for an "extended period" of time due to concerns that the economy is not yet strong enough to stand on its own without government support.  Stock market investors were so pleased with this news that they bid the market right through the S&P 500 resistance level of 1151.  No double top! Tue, 16 Mar 2010 04:41:50 -0400 Builders Economy Europe Fundamentals Technical Analysis The Market US REITs Jerry Slusiewiczhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15027 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15026 Tue, 16 Mar 2010 03:46:59 -0400 Home Page Video Editorial Staffhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15026 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15024 Here is my dissection of the March 16 Fed Statement FOMC Statement March 16, 2010 Tue, 16 Mar 2010 03:24:36 -0400 Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15024 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15023 Blue-lined markup comparison of the March versus January FOMC statements below. Also see past Fed-Day reactions on this site, and prior statement markups here. It would appear that the focus here is on continued stabilization and a reiteration of its in-place stratagems and TARP unwinding schedule, including the requisite Hoenig dissent. [Click Graphic Below to Enlarge]  Tue, 16 Mar 2010 02:31:08 -0400 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15023 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15022 The US Dollar Index, and thus the popular ETF UUP (NYSE: UUP), are challenging a key 'line in the sand' which could determine whether we get a 'support bounce' here... or the more ominous rounded reversal and potential head and shoulders pattern plays out to the downside.  Let's look at this level and why it is important. First, the Daily chart of UUP shows our confluence support zone: Tue, 16 Mar 2010 02:26:57 -0400 Technical Analysis Technician's Edge UUP Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15022 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15018 Tue, 16 Mar 2010 02:14:09 -0400 Economy Precious Metals Technical Analysis Steve Savillehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15018 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15016 Should regulation be dumb?  In one sense yes, in others, no.  It really depends on how well the regulators understand the risks involved, and how much they can encourage professionalism among profit center heads and risk managers.  As those two increase, regulation can be smart.  "Follow these detailed rules to calculate the capital you need to be solvent 99% of the time." But when either of those two aren't true, dumb regulation may be in order: Tue, 16 Mar 2010 02:05:24 -0400 Economy Financials David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15016 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15015 The dollar is diving and the futures are flying this morning! Word is that the Fed will remain dovish in their 2:15 statement today with no sign of tightening in the near future. That has (as of 7:30) rallied gold 1.5% to $1,115, oil is back over $80 and copper is $3.35 again while the Euro jumps back to $1.375 and even the British Pound squeezes the hell out of the shorts as it flies from $1.497 at 3:30 to $1.514 (1%) in 4 hours, which is a pretty big move for FOREX! Tue, 16 Mar 2010 01:56:29 -0400 Economy Philip Davishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15015 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15014 Aaaand we're off!  Buyers pushed prices higher to trigger yet another round of ‘popped stops' not only this morning, but over the last few trading sessions. Let's take a look at the recent ‘popped stops' rallies and how they reveal the character of the market... and what that matters to you more than indicators or anything else. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 01:54:23 -0400 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15014 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15011 FNGN - Financial Engines plans to offer 10.6 million shares at a range of $9-$11. Insiders will be selling 4.7 million shares in the deal. Assuming over-allotments are exercised, the deal size will be 12.2 million shares with insider sales remaining the same at 4.7 million shares. Goldman Sachs and UBS are leading the deal, Cowen and Piper Jaffray are co-managing. Post-ipo FNGN will have 41.1 million shares outstanding for a market cap of $410 million on a pricing of $10. Ipo proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 01:41:32 -0400 IPOs UBS Bill Simpsonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15011 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15010 Tue, 16 Mar 2010 01:41:10 -0400 Economy Technical Analysis Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15010 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15009 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.3% As a child, I remember being very careful to wear green on St. Patrick's Day to avoid pinches from schoolmates. Investors in greenery this year have managed to avoid some financial pain themselves. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 01:32:56 -0400 Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15009 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15008 The monthly data release of ETF trading data from the National Stock Exchange always provides a comprehensive industry snapshot, detailing fund flows, asset levels, and the latest update on an increasingly-competitive battle for market share. There is no shortage of number-crunching following each release, but most of the analysis focuses on high level industry trends, such as month-over-month growth, cash inflows, and success of recent high-profile launches. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 12:40:11 -0400 Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15008 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15007 Is the market hitting a wall of resistance…or just refueling before takeoff? Today, the SPY (an ETF that tracks the S&P 500) was up for the twelfth consecutive day. So the question is, can it continue without a pullback to shake out the weaker holders? Let’s look at the numbers. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 12:26:25 -0400 Technical Analysis SPY David Brownhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15007 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15006 At Investor Insight, John Mauldin has two free newsletters that I love to read; I know that while I may not agree with him, his newsletters are always a good read. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 12:19:50 -0400 Economy Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15006 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15005 Surprise, surprise. Sen. Chris Dodd's financial-regulation proposal raises the possibility of substantial progress on the road to ending "too big to fail" (TBTF) and bailout nation for banks and other financial institutions.How the Dodd bill will play out in the final details remains to be seen. But when you read the Dodd fact sheet, there are a few key items to like. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 12:10:20 -0400 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15005 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15004 Will they hike 'em today? Probably not. But the sight of a central bank raising interest rates is no longer unusual. Australia has been hiking the price of money recently and South Korea is reportedly set to begin its exit strategy. The Fed isn’t likely to join them today. The formal yeah or nay arrives this afternoon, when the FOMC releases a statement. But the aura of tightening hangs in the air. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 12:05:04 -0400 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15004 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15003 Surprisingly, and perhaps even shockingly, investing in Treasury Bond ETFs has been profitable in 2010. Very few folks would have “thunk it.” Consider all of the forces conspiring against treasury debt success. The U.S government’s triple-A rating is being “questioned.” Treasury yields are decidedly unattractive when compared to alternatives. We’re issuing new debt in record-breaking fashion to pay for an ever-expanding deficit. Worse yet, both China and Japan have been net “sellers” for the last 3 months. And yet… check out the gains: Tue, 16 Mar 2010 11:54:54 -0400 Bonds Speciality ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15003 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15002 Perhaps the most common question that I receive from financial journalists at popular publications (e.g., Investor’s Business Daily, Smart Money, Business Week, etc.) regards ETF risk. For example, with U.S. stock assets eclipsing their January highs, and coming off a 9.2% correction, writers are asking, ”What do you see as the next big hurdle?” Tue, 16 Mar 2010 11:49:28 -0400 Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15002 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15001 Tue, 16 Mar 2010 11:45:00 -0400 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15001 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15000 Tue, 16 Mar 2010 09:14:43 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/15000 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14999    Tue, 16 Mar 2010 08:40:42 -0400 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14999 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14998 Tue, 16 Mar 2010 08:38:51 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14998 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14997 Sen. Dodd's new financial regulation package is out and about. What does it mean? What does it do? What will it change? Will it work? The analysis has only just begun. We can start by recognizing that the Dodd legislation aims to add "layers of oversight." It's already delivered layers of paper (the actual bill is 1,336 pages). Tue, 16 Mar 2010 08:37:59 -0400 Education Politics Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14997 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14996 Whether you are a trader or an investor you need to have a method and to follow it in a disciplined fashion.  You also need to understand your system, having patience when necessary.Every system has strong and weak points.  Most methods are either momentum (where you play the trend) or mean reversion (where you fade the trend).  There is also a matter of time frame.  One leading technical commentator uses four (!) different time frames for trend determination.As background, I recognize this by using three different programs. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 08:30:13 -0400 ETFs Technical Analysis The Market Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14996 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14995 Tue, 16 Mar 2010 01:10:38 -0400 Asia Economy The Market Jim Welshhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14995 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14994 In January, I wrote that I thought the Financial Crisis was over. I am looking to the future to find sound investments for my clients, and as I have said many times, and especially during the recent Greek Credit Correction, the Dow around 10,000 is just as big of a long term buying opportunity as was the Dow at 7,000 a once in a lifetime short term buying opportunity. For the reluctant, it is not too late to get into stocks. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 01:12:14 -0400 Bonds Economy Education Technical Analysis Matthew Shapirohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14994 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14992 Mon, 15 Mar 2010 06:02:34 -0400 Asia Aussie/NZ Canada Economy Europe Technical Analysis Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14992 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14991 The S&P 500 hit resistance at 1150 last week and is now pulling back.  It's all about the trend channels at this point.Bottom line this overbought condition when viewing the 60 minute charts gets worked off by either going sideways or a pullback to trend channel support. Mon, 15 Mar 2010 04:20:53 -0400 Technical Analysis David Grandeyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14991 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14981 Mon, 15 Mar 2010 03:46:00 -0400 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14981 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14980 Mon, 15 Mar 2010 03:43:05 -0400 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14980 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14979 My piece on bank reform will have to delay until Monday evening.  I am still working on it.  Tonight's piece is on entitlements and pensions globally and locally. Mon, 15 Mar 2010 03:08:31 -0400 Education Europe Retirement David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14979 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14978 Mon, 15 Mar 2010 03:06:59 -0400 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14978 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14977 For those who follow gold and the S&P 500 closely, you've certainly noticed that prices are diverging after GLD's (NYSE: GLD) peak on March 3rd while the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) continued on to new recovery highs and *may* have peaked Friday. Let's take a look at the 30min combined chart to see the positive relationship... and where it recently hit the rocks. Mon, 15 Mar 2010 02:59:43 -0400 Precious Metals Technical Analysis SPY GLD Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14977 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14976 Mon, 15 Mar 2010 02:16:32 -0400 Speciality ETFs Shishir Nigamhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14976 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14975 Among the many ways to evaluate the speculative activity in stocks is to evaluate the relative interest in small cap stocks versus blue chips. I like to do this by simply comparing the Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks (RUT) to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Mon, 15 Mar 2010 02:10:21 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14975 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14974 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.3% Well, we've arrived at the ides of March, a day particularly unlucky for Julius Caesar, but I'm banking on this day as the start of the 30-day countdown to monster gains in the gold mining sector. Mon, 15 Mar 2010 02:00:26 -0400 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14974 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14973 This Weekly Market Digest will cover the action for the week ending Friday, March 12th. Overall action was positive for the period as all three of the equity indices we track here at Portfolio Tilt closed higher. The NASDAQ continued its dominance as the leading market index, outpacing the Dow and S&P for the week with a 1.8% gain. Although the action was constructive, our sights are now set on the winding road ahead. Mon, 15 Mar 2010 01:53:56 -0400 Technical Analysis Drew Birenbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14973 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14972 Mon, 15 Mar 2010 01:18:16 -0400 Asia Bonds Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14972 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14971 Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP Mon, 15 Mar 2010 01:15:34 -0400 Asia Base Metals Currencies Technical Analysis Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14971 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14970 Mon, 15 Mar 2010 01:10:27 -0400 Options Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14970 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14968 Mon, 15 Mar 2010 12:59:21 -0400 ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14968 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14967 I have an e-mail address that I use for ‘free’ offers. It’s a good way of keeping track of what is going on in the trading industry. I received the attached pdf from one of the subscriptions. It’s well written, contains much truth and worth a read. I found parts very entertaining. Mon, 15 Mar 2010 12:38:37 -0400 Education Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14967 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14966 Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao yesterday firmly rejected calls for a stronger yuan, which is widely credited for boosting the country's exports and maintaining its enormous trade surplus. “The Chinese currency is not undervalued,” he said on Sunday in Beijing. "We oppose all countries engaging in mutual finger-pointing or taking strong measures to force other nations to appreciate their currencies." Mon, 15 Mar 2010 12:36:29 -0400 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14966 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14965 Top ratings agency, Moody's says the US & UK are "substantially" closer to losing their AAA credit ratings as the cost of servicing their debt rose. Mon, 15 Mar 2010 12:35:25 -0400 Economy Philip Davishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14965 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14961 Mon, 15 Mar 2010 09:49:54 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14961 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14960 Mon, 15 Mar 2010 09:49:12 -0400 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14960 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14959 Mon, 15 Mar 2010 08:28:18 -0400 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14959 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14958 Health care legislation has been a focal point for national debate for more than a year.  One way or another, the fate of legislation supported by President Obama will soon be decided -- probably this week.  The final maneuvering will be the most important story of the week.Sure, the Fed will meet.  We will also have some economic reports, but the health care story is one that is both less frequent and more important. Mon, 15 Mar 2010 08:27:21 -0400 Politics The Market Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14958 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14957 I wanted to highlight a few quick recent charts of how the US Dollar Index positively correlates (moves in the same direction) with the 3-month Treasury Bill Discount Rate. It's not the most fascinating topic, but it's definitely important to know of this relationship, so let's take a look at a couple of recent charts. First, a ‘zoomed in' view of the recent action: Mon, 15 Mar 2010 08:24:29 -0400 Bonds Currencies Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14957 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14956    Mon, 15 Mar 2010 08:22:35 -0400 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14956 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14955 Sat, 13 Mar 2010 12:14:16 -0500 Earnings Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14955 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14954 Sat, 13 Mar 2010 11:32:03 -0500 Asia Aussie/NZ Canada Currencies Economy Europe Technical Analysis Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14954 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14953 I will have a more comprehensive post tomorrow on my thoughts on bank regulation, but I will offer a few thoughts here.  One thing I found interesting at the conference was what did not get much play in terms of what helped to create the crisis. Sat, 13 Mar 2010 11:26:48 -0500 Financials The Market David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14953 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14951 The new Obama Fed is going to be very dovish when it comes to fighting future inflation and defending the value of the dollar. Fri, 12 Mar 2010 06:01:09 -0500 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14951 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14950 Fri, 12 Mar 2010 06:00:49 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14950 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14949 Yesterday, Clean Energy Fuels (Nasdaq: CLNE) broke out on an earnings related news release. Blink your eye and you missed it. So now what? Do we do what the master TV herder says we should do and that is just blindly buy buy buy? Or should we do what we here at All About Trends preach all the time and that is to NOT CHASE BUSES and let them come to us. Fri, 12 Mar 2010 01:46:49 -0500 Traders' Talk David Grandeyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14949 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14948 Fri, 12 Mar 2010 01:41:29 -0500 Financials Speciality ETFs Shishir Nigamhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14948 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14947 Following up from yesterday's post "Get Ready for Range Expansion Play from SPY Intraday Triangle," we see that we indeed get the range expansion breakout trade as expected by the symmetrical triangle of yesterday. Not only does it serve as a great example of real-time identification and follow-through of the pattern, but we see a similar though smaller compression triangle forming today at 1:00 EST on the SPY. Fri, 12 Mar 2010 01:25:58 -0500 Technical Analysis SPY Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14947 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14945 This morning, I read Richard Shaw’s commentary with a great deal of interest (Brick Chart View of Major Indexes). In the editorial, Shaw explained the nature of “brick charting,” including: (1) Time Independence. Like Point & Figure Charts, new blocks (bricks) rely on price changes alone, and they may not occur for several time increments. Fri, 12 Mar 2010 12:57:49 -0500 Broad Market ETFs International ETFs Speciality ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14945 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14944 Fri, 12 Mar 2010 12:55:45 -0500 Precious Metals Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14944 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14943 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12-months): 2.2% Declining commodity prices kept the pressure off the Fed this week to snug up on rates. Key inflation markers for the week ending Thursday:   Fri, 12 Mar 2010 12:47:20 -0500 Economy Precious Metals Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14943 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14942 After an easy gap fill, internals are marginally negative, but there is no real sign of potential breakdown yet as price consolidates under the VWAP.  In fact, the VIX is continuing to decline.  Keep a close eye on that slight edge in down volume and cumulative tick for any change. Fri, 12 Mar 2010 12:41:33 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14942 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14941 Fri, 12 Mar 2010 12:36:03 -0500 Asia Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14941 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14940 Fri, 12 Mar 2010 12:35:34 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Adam Hamiltonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14940 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14937 American families are $340 billion wealthier according to the Federal Reserve's latest batch of household-net-worth data. This puts folks $4.4 trillion up from the bottom of early last year. I believe this is contributing not only to a better economy, but also to better consumer spending. Fri, 12 Mar 2010 12:28:54 -0500 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14937 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14934 Retails sales last month rose 0.3%, the Census Bureau reported this morning. That's an upside surprise compared to the consensus outlook, which predicted a 0.3% fall. So much for the idea that snow can keep consumers away from the malls, even if the weather was blamed for pinching the labor market last month. Fri, 12 Mar 2010 12:05:51 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14934 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14933 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12-months): 2.2%Declining commodity prices kept the pressure off the Fed this week to snug up on rates. Key inflation markers for the week ending Thursday: Fri, 12 Mar 2010 12:00:13 -0500 Economy Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14933 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14932 Thursday (3/11/2010) was the first day of trading for SPDR S&P Russia ETF (NYSE: RBL).  The fund follows the S&P Russia Capped BMI Index, which seeks to reflect the performance of investable stocks domiciled in Russia. Fri, 12 Mar 2010 11:52:00 -0500 International ETFs New ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14932 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14931 On Thursday (3/11/2010) Direxion added six new funds to its menu, giving investors leveraged and inverse opportunities in the BRIC countries, India, and the semiconductor sector.  This was Direxion’s second batch of new ETFs this year.  Back in February they launched twoleveraged and inverse short-term Treasury ETFs. The newest ETFs are Fri, 12 Mar 2010 11:41:33 -0500 New ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14931 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14930 Fri, 12 Mar 2010 10:53:17 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14930 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14929 Fri, 12 Mar 2010 10:02:57 -0500 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14929 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14928 Fri, 12 Mar 2010 09:09:14 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14928 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14927 Fri, 12 Mar 2010 09:06:21 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14927 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14925 The NASDAQ and SP 600 Small Cap Index broke above the January high last week and they have continued higher this week on solid moves to the upside. Yesterday the S&P 500 index attempted to join the breakout part closing at 1150. This index more than the others seems to be the index of choice to watch on this latest trend off the February lows. It has not been the leader on this move and thus, could be more of an indicator of a top than an indicator for a move higher in the broad markets. This is definitely on my watch list for short term direction. Fri, 12 Mar 2010 08:36:04 -0500 Broad Market ETFs Technical Analysis Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14925 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14924 The Wall Street Journal this morning is reporting that Janet Yellen is on the fast track to become the central bank's second-in-command replacement for the retiring Don Kohn. Here's an excerpt from the Journal: Fri, 12 Mar 2010 08:20:04 -0500 Economy Politics Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14924 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14923 We present the first two volumes (out of 9) of the massive 2,200 page compendium that represents the just declassified examiner's report in the Lehman bankruptcy case. We will post the other volumes shortly. Below are the key findings from a quick perusal of Anton Valukas' report, which we will be combing through over the next week. Pay particular attention to the Repo 105 scam which allows banks to materially misrepresent their leverage ratios whenever they so choose, thank you FASB, corrupt auditors (in this case E&Y) and Federal Reserve.Some observations: Thu, 11 Mar 2010 07:35:39 -0500 Economy Financials Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14923 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14922 As spring approaches, our thoughts turn to such warm weather pleasures as outdoor grilling and long drives into the countryside. Each expectation has its own set of investment implications. We last looked at protein's prospects in "Weekend Meat Musings"). So what about those bucolic sojourns? Thu, 11 Mar 2010 06:08:46 -0500 Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14922 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14921 If you've been lulled to sleep by the recent intraday market action, don't fret. According to the long-standing price principle of "Range Expansion and Contraction," the next move in the market is likely to be a range expansion breakout swing move, that will offer opportunities for those aggressive enough to take them. Let's take a quick ‘pure price' look at the S&P 500 ETF SPY and note the symmetrical triangle compression and the boundaries to watch for a potential breakout. Thu, 11 Mar 2010 05:43:36 -0500 Broad Market ETFs Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPY Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14921 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14919 Or is it?  Apparently, everyone's a bull.  The market corrected 9% from January into February and despite an overwhelming number of bad economic reports, it seems everyone is looking for the markets to continue its trend higher as we closed equal to January's high on Thursday.  Bullish news is hard to find.  However, bullish sentiment abounds.  Thu, 11 Mar 2010 04:50:30 -0500 Financials Fundamentals Technical Analysis The Market Jerry Slusiewiczhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14919 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14916 Not only has the homebuilder sector received attention lately (investors often monitor this sector to assess the health of the economy via home purchases), the chart of the XHB Homebuilder SPDR ETF is showing a very interesting pattern that's worth a glance. Whether or not the pattern plays out is yet to be seen, but we can at least take a look at the current support and resistance areas to watch for clues for the next move, particularly as we face a potential breakout here that will either pick up steam... or taper off into a sell-off. Thu, 11 Mar 2010 03:13:31 -0500 Technical Analysis Technician's Edge Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14916 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14913 Thu, 11 Mar 2010 03:03:36 -0500 Home Page Video Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14913 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14911 Thu, 11 Mar 2010 02:53:46 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14911 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14910 That's right, the new Forbes list is out where we celebrate the top .000014%! Thu, 11 Mar 2010 02:36:13 -0500 Economy Philip Davishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14910 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14904 The jury's still out on the path of least resistance in the trend for initial jobless claims. Today's weekly update is certainly a step in the right direction, although last week's meager drop in new filings for jobless benefits falls far short of stellar, or convincing. The sluggish behavior of late in this series has kept us anxious for more than a month, and the number du jour doesn't change much. Thu, 11 Mar 2010 01:24:54 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14904 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14903 There’s no consensus on what an unusually high level of trading interest means. Extreme volume sometimes hints at a coming trend change for a particular asset. Other times, it may indicate a great deal of conviction about the asset’s desirability. Still other times, it may mean nothing at all.Nevertheless, on 3/10/10, I identified 2 ETFs with unusually high trading volume. What’s more, each of the ETFs had money flows moving counter to the price change. Thu, 11 Mar 2010 01:00:02 -0500 International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14903 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14901 One of the top single-country exchange traded funds (ETFs) year-to-date is the Market Vectors Indonesia (IDX), up 9.4%. This country is certainly worth keeping an eye on as one of the most exciting and promising in Asia, a fast-growing continent lousy with investment opportunities.Why? Thu, 11 Mar 2010 12:50:26 -0500 Emerging Markets International ETFs Tom Lydonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14901 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14900 U.S. and Canadian trade numbers for the month of January were much stronger than the market had anticipated but weakness beneath the U.S. trade report's headlines pushed the U.S. dollar sharply lower. Even though the U.S. trade deficit shrank from -$39.9B to -$37.3B, exports fell for the first time since April. Imports also dropped by 1.7 percent, the largest decline in 11 months. Thu, 11 Mar 2010 12:45:35 -0500 Canada Crude Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14900 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14899 Direxion, a pioneer in the 3x leveraged ETF space, announced Thursday the launch of six new funds, bringing the firm's total product offerings to 34, and represent firsts for both the company and the ETF industry. The leveraged ETFs beginning trading on Thursday include: Thu, 11 Mar 2010 12:39:22 -0500 Emerging Markets International ETFs Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14899 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14898 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.3% Professional portfolio managers learn very early in their careers the fundamentals of hedging. If there's a need to tactically reduce exposure to a particular asset class, they learn to find contrary investments, something that "zigs" as other holdings "zag." Thu, 11 Mar 2010 12:22:26 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14898 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14897 Many hopefuls come to to trading looking for their place in the Sun.  The attraction comes from our human core believe that we are the masters of our own destiny - that we have a say in the role we play in life—that our destiny is not fixed at birth. But at the same time, we give ourselves so many 'reasons' why we should not make the attempt or having made the attempt why we should not continue. At the base of those reasons lies 'fear'. We are afraid to give our all to the changes we need to effect to succeed: Thu, 11 Mar 2010 12:18:09 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14897 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14896 If I told you that the dollar is up, gold is down, and profits are powerful, would you be bullish or bearish? Well, I would be bullish—at least for the short-run. There are a lot of positive signals out there right now, quite apart from all the Washington tax threats and big-government politics. For example: The 10 percent NASDAQ stock correction was erased with a good gain on Wednesday. The techie index is now nearly 2 percent above the January 19 correction level. And the broader S&P 500 is coming bac—it has recouped virtually all of its election losses. Thu, 11 Mar 2010 12:12:23 -0500 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14896 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14895 Thu, 11 Mar 2010 09:59:57 -0500 Asia Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14895 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14894 Thu, 11 Mar 2010 08:36:23 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14894 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14893 Thu, 11 Mar 2010 08:35:17 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14893 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14892    Thu, 11 Mar 2010 08:34:29 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14892 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14890 Critical thinking helps in any field.  I have the pleasure of participating in a discussion list that explores many issues where critical thinking is a focus.  The members have a wide range of ages and specialties.  They are quite different from average people in two respects.  They are intellectuals (an unpopular group in today's society) and they are critical thinkers (an endangered species). Thu, 11 Mar 2010 08:28:59 -0500 Economy Education The Market Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14890 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14889 Wed, 10 Mar 2010 05:26:19 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14889 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14888 There may be 33 million people in Canada. All of them, and perhaps most of the world’s citizens, may have cheered its gold medal victory over the Americans in the 2010 Winter Olympics. Wed, 10 Mar 2010 04:56:14 -0500 Canada International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14888 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14887 So now it becomes clear: President Obama as Ahab, a political martyr wannabe who willfully straps himself to his own Moby Dick, that great white whale of a $1 trillion health-care overhaul.My guess is that ObamaCare will pass (insert bone-wracking shudder here). And, like Moby Dick plunging to the ocean's depths, it will take with it Obama's presidency and the Democrats' control of Congress.But it isn't the Obama presidency I worry about. If he chooses to sink himself with this bloated whale, so be it. Great experiment, thanks for playing, see ya, Cap'n. Wed, 10 Mar 2010 04:38:38 -0500 Economy Dennis Knealehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14887 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14885 Similar to that of RIMM, Goldman Sachs (GS) stock broke a critical resistance level which set-up a great breakout trading opportunity for those poised to take advantage of it. Let’s learn the lesson from this breakout, discuss another example of the “Popped Stops” and “Open Air” concepts, and be ready to apply this lesson in the next stock where it happens. First, let’s set-up the scenario on the Daily Chart: Wed, 10 Mar 2010 02:16:02 -0500 Technical Analysis GS RIMM Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14885 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14884 The market has gone straight up over the past week since beginning the month of March by breaking through its 50-day moving average. The top and bottom of Sabrient's SectorCast-ETF rankings look pretty similar to last week, although there has been some shuffling as Energy takes the top spot and Healthcare re-emerges in the top two. Wed, 10 Mar 2010 02:15:31 -0500 Broad Market ETFs International ETFs Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Scott Martindalehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14884 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14883 Wed, 10 Mar 2010 01:51:22 -0500 Broad Market ETFs Education Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14883 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14882 Wed, 10 Mar 2010 01:40:43 -0500 Aussie/NZ Currencies Economy Technical Analysis Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14882 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14880 Wed, 10 Mar 2010 12:51:17 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14880 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14879 Wed, 10 Mar 2010 12:21:19 -0500 Education Personal Finance The Market Dock David Treecehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14879 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14878 Tuesday's Put/Call Ratio suggested some complacency among options traders. Below is a study I've shown a few times in the past in the Subscriber Letter that appeared in last night's Quantifinder for gold subscribers. Wed, 10 Mar 2010 12:11:24 -0500 Options Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14878 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14877 The global equity market has cast a long influence on regional stock markets in recent years. Whether it was a bull market on steroids or the opposite effect, the gravitational pull of a broad-minded definition of the world's equity market has been a major force in moving narrower slices of stocks. Is the long shadow of equity beta now in the process of transition? It's a little easier to answer "yes" if we consider year-to-date total returns for the primary equity regions around the world. Wed, 10 Mar 2010 12:01:22 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14877 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14876 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.4% Wed, 10 Mar 2010 11:59:50 -0500 Crude Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14876 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14875 The key question facing investors right now—on the anniversary of a record-breaking stock surge, the best in 75 years—is whether we're headed for a second bull-market year. It's a battle royale between rising corporate profits—which are the mother's milk of stocks, business, and economic growth—and the high-tax policies pouring out of Washington, aimed at capital gains, dividends, top earners, banks, foreign earnings, and financial transactions. It's a miserable list of tax hikes. Wed, 10 Mar 2010 11:58:44 -0500 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14875 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14874 Claymore, the ETF sponsor that has closed 17 funds and has 12 more on ETF Deathwatch, introduced three new ETFs yesterday (3/9/10).  They appear destined for a similar fate. Wed, 10 Mar 2010 11:52:19 -0500 New ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14874 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14872 I received an interesting e-mail the other day that sheds some light on the current state of investor psychology.  He writes, "I hear from a hedge fund and analyst friend that most major cycle work tops out from this coming week thru April and [he says] it's THE top.   One he sites is the Bradley model which shows a devastating drop beginning after next week into October of this year to roughly Dow 6,500.  Looking back all the way to 1900 chart of market I've never seen a major top without breadth deteriorating for many months or even a year or more before a major bear." Wed, 10 Mar 2010 11:42:00 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Clif Drokehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14872 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14869 Wed, 10 Mar 2010 09:15:54 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14869 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14868 Wed, 10 Mar 2010 08:54:26 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14868 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14867 Wed, 10 Mar 2010 08:53:41 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14867 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14866 OK, here I go with another educational concept that has no immediate and actionable investment advice.  I heard a couple of uninformed comments about housing.  One was that the market needed to push prices down so that it would clear.  This reflects ignorance.  Markets clear at the current price.The other was about shadow supply.  Let's take a closer look.Background Wed, 10 Mar 2010 08:27:00 -0500 Economy Housing Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14866 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14865    The EURUSD moved higher in pre-NY trade. There was a report that the Greece was ahead of schedule with implementation of deficit plan and there was some rumblings of Swiss National Bank intervention in EURCHF.  Wed, 10 Mar 2010 08:22:24 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14865 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14864 Wed, 10 Mar 2010 01:14:30 -0500 Home Page Video Editorial Staffhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14864 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14861 Tue, 09 Mar 2010 07:13:19 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14861 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14860 Tue, 09 Mar 2010 07:10:26 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14860 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14859 Tue, 09 Mar 2010 07:07:22 -0500 Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14859 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14858 I think there's a television program called, "Million Dollar Listing." I've never seen it.Instead, I find myself in scores of conversations with real estate professionals. And if you speak to enough of them about their industry, your head will start to spin. Tue, 09 Mar 2010 06:48:46 -0500 Speciality ETFs US REITs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14858 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14857 My favorite forex trade right now is shorting AUD/NZD. After hitting a 9 year high of 1.3124 last week, the rally in AUD/NZD is losing steam. I should have posted about this earlier, but I think there is still room for the currency pair to fall. Tue, 09 Mar 2010 03:08:27 -0500 Aussie/NZ Currencies Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14857 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14856 The market continues its bullish bias.  Low interest rates remain the source for institutional investors to access cheap capital to trade the markets.  The US Dollar continues to trade against resistance from above and the Euro is supported by resistance from below their current prices.  This currency conundrum is what we will watch for resolution.  That may be the single determining factor for the next directional move for the markets. Tue, 09 Mar 2010 02:50:11 -0500 Commodities Currencies Economy Europe Fundamentals Precious Metals Technical Analysis The Market Jerry Slusiewiczhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14856 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14855 A few readers have been asking for updates on the current Fibonacci Retracement Levels on the major US Equity Indexes, and I thought it would be a valuable resource to organize the four main US Equity Indexes with their respective Fibonacci Retracement Levels to watch, as drawn from each index's top in late 2007 to their bottoms in early 2009. This post can serve as your reference to these unchanging and important levels traders of all methods are monitoring - and you can too. Dow Jones: Tue, 09 Mar 2010 01:42:35 -0500 Technical Analysis Technician's Edge Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14855 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14850 There is a long history in financial economics of documenting some degree of predictability in asset returns. So why aren't investors doing a better job of earning a risk premium? Is it because the prediction variables aren't so useful after all? Or maybe the evidence showing support of earning higher risk premiums requires looking at longer periods than is the norm. Another possibility is that investors overall are incapable of mustering the emotional discipline required for exploiting forecasting opportunities. Tue, 09 Mar 2010 01:29:56 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14850 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14849 Mon, 08 Mar 2010 01:19:02 -0500 Economy Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14849 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14848 Some solid, big-pictures perspectives from David Rosenberg, comparing then and now:The media are all over the fact that today is the one-year anniversary of the 12-year low in the stock market reached on  March 9, 2009, when the S&P sagged to that diabolical 666 level. (Funny how nobody celebrates October 9, which is the anniversary of the 1,565 high set back in 2007.) A lot has changed over a year, and that includes the factors that have supported the recovery in the equity market: Tue, 09 Mar 2010 01:09:01 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14848 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14847 March 9, 2009 is a date etched into the memories of many investors. After months of unprecedented volatility, depressing statistical releases, and countless false bottoms, that's the day most equity markets finally hit their lows. It also marked the beginning of an impressive rally that saw most major indexes climb steadily for the remainder of the year, reclaiming big chunks of the ground lost during the downturn. While the "great rally of ‘09″ boosted most asset classes (and their related ETFs), some performed far better than others. Tue, 09 Mar 2010 12:44:03 -0500 Broad Market ETFs International ETFs Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14847 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14846 The stability in the forex on Monday was short-lived as comments by ratings agencies sent investors back into the safety of U.S. dollars. Growth is improving but the threat of a fiscal crisis and the potential need for a bailout in Europe continues to keep risk appetite is hanging by a thread. In yesterday's daily report, we said risk appetite should improve barring any unforeseen circumstances and unfortunately fresh comments from rating agencies have given forex traders a reason to sell higher yielding currencies. Tue, 09 Mar 2010 12:38:03 -0500 Asia Bonds Currencies Precious Metals Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14846 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14845 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.5% Normally at this time of year, seasonal cotton traders would be looking forward to peeling off a monthlong position in the July delivery that's proved to be a fairly reliable winner. A purchase in the second week of February ordinarily—that is, 80 percent of the time—turns a $1,150-per-contract profit. Or rather, turned a profit. Tue, 09 Mar 2010 12:15:53 -0500 Agriculture Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14845 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14844 One of the first books I read was Edwin Lefrevre’s ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’; it is still one of my most thumbed books. Every 18 months or so, I re-read it and always seem to find some nugget of information I had previously  overlooked. Tue, 09 Mar 2010 11:54:54 -0500 The Market Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14844 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14843 So here we are on the one-year anniversary of a booming stock market—the best in 75 years. That continues to tell me things are getting better in the American economy, and that the global economic story is improving. Of course, I know that Washington is still going completely in the wrong direction. Instead of embracing free-market capitalism, it's threatening to move toward statism, with its big-spending, over-regulating, high-taxing, and economy-controlling "eat-the-rich" cannibalization of successful investors and entrepreneurs. Tue, 09 Mar 2010 11:37:25 -0500 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14843 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14842 A year ago this week the stock market hit its nefarious 666 level on the S&P 500. Since that historic day, we have enjoyed a 68% appreciation in equities from their depressionary low. Not only has the bounce caused a chorus of perma-bulls to claim the worst of the recession is behind us, but also to declare that the bull market is here to stay. Tue, 09 Mar 2010 11:32:44 -0500 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14842 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14841 Tue, 09 Mar 2010 11:29:53 -0500 Economy Politics Bob Langhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14841 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14840 Tue, 09 Mar 2010 08:55:49 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14840 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14839 Tue, 09 Mar 2010 08:33:45 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14839 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14838 In a letter to the CFTC's Chairman, Gary Gensler, GATA Chairman William Murphy shares the following bombshell:"GATA has evidence that there are enormous physical short positions in the gold and silver markets that cannot be covered." Tue, 09 Mar 2010 08:23:25 -0500 Precious Metals Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14838 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14837    The GBPUSD has seen some profit taking buying in early NY trade as the selling found support at the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the March 1st low to the high on March 8th.  That level came in at 1.4939 (see hourly chart below).  Tue, 09 Mar 2010 08:11:59 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14837 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14836 In addition to taking a couple of days off, I have had some computer problems.It is a day late for our regular ETF update, but I will post the basics for our ratings below.  Those interested in a more complete description of our methodology can check any of our prior updates.When I finish the upgrade to Windows 7 -- the Vista experience was not good -- I'll devote an article to the transition. Tue, 09 Mar 2010 08:04:27 -0500 ETFs Technical Analysis Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14836 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14835 If we're close to seeing 1000 U.S. exchange-traded products, what percentage of those ETFs or ETNs represent Apple (NYSE: AAPL)? The answer is... 10%.There are more than 100 ETFs with exposure to tech's best-known innovator. Most broad-based large-cap ETFs may have a 2% weighting. A variety of tech ETFs target 6%-8%. Yet there are number of exchange-traded investments with as much as 10%, 12%, even 16% in the big Apple. Mon, 08 Mar 2010 06:45:04 -0500 Sector ETFs Tech AAPL Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14835 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14834 Tue, 09 Mar 2010 01:00:43 -0500 Technical Analysis David Brownhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14834 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14829 Mon, 08 Mar 2010 04:38:56 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14829 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14828 Mon, 08 Mar 2010 03:22:29 -0500 Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14828 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14827 It is commonly believed that March tends to be a positive month for the Japanese Yen because of the fiscal year end in Japan. Tax incentives and the desire to window dress their balance sheets usually encourage repatriation by Japanese corporations. However with the Japanese Yen selling off aggressively against the dollar towards the end of last week, many traders may be wondering whether repatriation flows this year will overshadow the improvements in risk appetite which usually pressures the Yen. Mon, 08 Mar 2010 01:56:24 -0500 Asia Aussie/NZ Canada Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14827 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14826 In an interesting turn of events, the Russell 2000 "Small Cap" Index broke to new recovery highs last week in a sign of bullish strength, but now faces headwinds from the weekly 200 period moving average. Let's take a quick look at both the daily and weekly Russell 2000 chart to see what level we should watch for important clues as to the strength - or pause - in the recent strong rally. Russell 2000 Daily: Mon, 08 Mar 2010 01:36:37 -0500 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14826 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14825 It's time for another quick update from the Disciplined Investor - Andrew Horowitz - as he shares the "Indicators the Disciplined Investor is Watching." This week's edition is entitled, "Up to Start and Down to End" and features has standard quick charts on volume, internals, and a few of the alternate markets he's keeping in focus this week. Mon, 08 Mar 2010 01:34:32 -0500 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14825 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14824 Mon, 08 Mar 2010 12:47:35 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14824 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14823 What is risk management? For me it’s a set of tools that balance maximization of profitability with minimization of risk of ruin. It’s made up of two categories: Mon, 08 Mar 2010 12:31:40 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14823 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14822 Asia exploded out of the gate today!  The Hang Seng is up 2% at 21,196, gaining 408 points on the day along with a 2% gain on the Nikkei (216 points), taking them over the 10,500 mark to 10,585 as they play catch-up to the Dow, which topped out at 10,566 last week.  The BSE keeps going higher, adding 0.6% for the day, back over 17,000 at 17,108 and the Shanghia added 0.7%, finishing the day at 3,053.  Mon, 08 Mar 2010 12:24:11 -0500 Economy Philip Davishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14822 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14816 Any week that the employment report is released, that data is automatically in the running for the chart of the week. Given that the Bureau of Labor Statistics corrected some of the historical data series and stocks rallied sharply off of the not-as-bad-as-feared payroll losses, this seemed like a good time to update a chart that has always been a big hit and I that I have not published in seven months. Mon, 08 Mar 2010 12:12:50 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14816 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14815 If you can't beat them join them right? Well before we go and buy stocks BLINDLY based on emotions we need to take a look at the indexes first. Why? Because most stocks trade in tandem with the indexes and success in the market is all about knowing what's happening and likely to happen in the indexes and executing your plan based on that action. Mon, 08 Mar 2010 12:11:33 -0500 Technical Analysis David Grandeyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14815 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14814 Mon, 08 Mar 2010 12:10:31 -0500 Biotech Sector ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14814 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14813 Mon, 08 Mar 2010 12:08:30 -0500 Bonds Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14813 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14805 Join Jim as he takes a look at the market sector by sector for the leaders, losers and limpers which are uptrends, downtrends and consolidation that present opportunities in the market. Mon, 08 Mar 2010 09:27:53 -0500 ETF podcasts Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14805 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14804 The NASDAQ index moved to a new high last week. The move pushed the index up 3.6% for the week. The question mark is will it hold the move and regain the previous uptrend? The volume has been above average on the move and the leadership has been broad based. The small cap stocks have been the highlight more so than the large cap. In fact the NASDAQ 100 index has not reached a new high. That is something to watch short term. Mon, 08 Mar 2010 09:06:36 -0500 ETFs Farrish Files Tech Technical Analysis Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14804 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14803 Mon, 08 Mar 2010 08:55:12 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14803 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14802    Mon, 08 Mar 2010 08:40:45 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14802 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14801 The bulls capped off a big week on Friday as the NASDAQ gained 1.4% for the session, and nearly 4% for the week. Volume was well above recent average levels so clearly there were convicted buyers pushing up prices last week. This is exactly what we want to see on a big up-week. This is not the type of bull market you want to just blindly jump out and short. That is a great strategy to lose money, because remember one of the most important rules for trend trading, stay in tune with the markets, and be positioned in the direction of the primary trend, not against it. Mon, 08 Mar 2010 08:37:19 -0500 Technical Analysis The Market Drew Birenbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14801 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14800 Mon, 08 Mar 2010 08:31:41 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14800 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14799 Mon, 08 Mar 2010 08:29:50 -0500 Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14799 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14798 Mon, 08 Mar 2010 08:21:21 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14798 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14797 Today I am concluding my presentation of some of the charts I received as entries in last week's chart of the week contest. The chart below comes from Dan Glynn, who offered the following commentary: Mon, 08 Mar 2010 08:20:09 -0500 ETFs Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14797 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14796 Today showed another example of the theme I've been highlighting - literally - on the blog, showing multi-day rallies in the S&P 500.  Today confirms that we are in yet another ‘highlighted zone' as has been the cycle of the past. Let's take a look at these regions, the present chart, and what to expect going forward. Mon, 08 Mar 2010 04:26:38 -0500 Education Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14796 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14795 As I reported last month, January saw relatively limited insider trading in the wake of some year-end net profit-taking in December. So, it was encouraging to see the buyers return during February. Nevertheless, weekly net insider trading transactions (the number of individual buyers minus sellers) still finished February quite negatively, as a lot of insiders appeared to be selling into a resurgent market. Is it indicating some doubt about the sustainability of market strength? Let's dig a bit deeper into the numbers. Mon, 08 Mar 2010 03:48:49 -0500 Fundamentals Scott Martindalehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14795 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14794 Is China's undervalued currency set to rise? That depends on how you interpret yesterday's comments from the governor of China's central bank. Mon, 08 Mar 2010 03:45:10 -0500 Asia Currencies Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14794 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14793 Mon, 08 Mar 2010 03:06:11 -0500 Agriculture Base Metals Coal Crude Politics Precious Metals Philip Davishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14793 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14792 With this article I am initiating a new series called "Face-off."  My mission is identifying and writing about the best sources on a topic -- finding expertise and explaining arguments.  This is in sharp contrast to most others who purport to be experts on nearly everything.  By comparison, my claim is quite modest!In this new series I plan to take a topic of interest and present opposing viewpoints.  I always review comments, but I am especially interested in reactions as I develop this theme.Background:  The CFTC Takes Action Mon, 08 Mar 2010 02:57:12 -0500 Education Fundamentals Technical Analysis Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14792 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14791 When comparisons are made between actively-managed ETFs [http://etfshub.com/archives/what-are-active-etfs/] and their competitors, they are often compared with their passive counterparts. The 4 pillars of the ETF structure that gives it such an advantage is their liquidity, tax efficiency, transparency and of course low cost. The argument is made that Active ETFs are deficient to Index ETFs because they are usually more costly, less tax efficient because of more trading costs, and less transparent because active managers are reluctant to disclose their holdings. Mon, 08 Mar 2010 02:33:14 -0500 Education Speciality ETFs Shishir Nigamhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14791 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14789 Fri, 05 Mar 2010 07:36:46 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14789 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14788 "Avatar" is the greatest wonder of the film world, with a $2-billion-plus box office, a $400-million budget to make, market and distribute it, and digital effects that will spawn a new craze for 3D flicks. Yet my sincere hope is that, come Sunday night, "Avatar" loses, and loses badly, in its sure-bet bid for best film at the Academy Awards. Fri, 05 Mar 2010 04:25:19 -0500 More Dennis Knealehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14788 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14787 ... and indeed the Small-Caps (IWM) are well above.  How glad am I to have hedged into today's numbers.  All trend-day indications remain in place even though we are flat lined at the mid-day.  I'll likely be more interested in reestablishing shorts sometime early next week. Fri, 05 Mar 2010 01:42:43 -0500 Traders' Talk IWM Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14787 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14786 It’s been a spectacular week for the bulls… no doubt about it. Both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 gained ground in all 5 trading sessions. In fact, the iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM) hit fresh 52-week highs, closing in on territory not seen since the Lehman bankruptcy (9/2008). Fri, 05 Mar 2010 01:29:52 -0500 Broad Market ETFs International ETFs IWM Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14786 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14785 There's a lot of loose talk on Wall Street right now about the risk of a double-dip recession. I'm not buying it. Now, I'm the first to admit there's a good debate about the overall strength of the recovery rebound. But the recession ended last June, and I'm still thinking a 4 percent growth rate in 2010 is likely. That could spell another large rally in stocks. Fri, 05 Mar 2010 12:48:47 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14785 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14780 Fri, 05 Mar 2010 12:38:17 -0500 Currencies Europe Precious Metals Adam Hamiltonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14780 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14777 Two days ago, I wrote an editorial on “dividend aristocrats.” I can’t remember the exact reason that I chose to write the column on dividend ETFs on that particular day. However, I did want to discuss exerting greater control over your portfolio’s performance. Fri, 05 Mar 2010 12:31:39 -0500 Speciality ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14777 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14776 Fri, 05 Mar 2010 11:56:16 -0500 Technical Analysis Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14776 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14775 This week, the short end of the yield spectrum ticked up and gold spreads widened to indicate an expectation of eventual tightening by the Federal Reserve. Like last week, though, the interest rate boost held an accompanying rally in commodity prices in check.Key inflation markers for the week ending Thursday: Fri, 05 Mar 2010 11:49:09 -0500 Economy Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14775 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14774 It’s the weather, they say. The loss of 36,000 jobs in last month’s nonfarm payroll count may have been a victim of the snow, the Labor Department advises with this morning’s release of the February employment report. The unemployment rate, at least, was unchanged last month, albeit at a high 9.7%. Fri, 05 Mar 2010 11:43:00 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14774 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14773 Fri, 05 Mar 2010 11:39:31 -0500 Economy David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14773 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14772 I thought I’d round off the week with this idea. On Wednesday, I took time off from my schedule just to gather my thoughts. I had been feeling uneasy about the EURUSD trade and not because I had been trading a larger than normal size. My gut was feeling the way it feels when I am missing something important. I have found that the best way to deal with the situation is to go away to a quiet corner and start from my basics. Fri, 05 Mar 2010 11:25:42 -0500 Education Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14772 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14771 The financial sector (NYSE: IYF) remains in the five month trading range. After the initial burst off the March 2009 lows the sector has languished mostly due to the news surrounding the sector. You can’t listen to a news report or speech from a politician where the sector isn’t bashed in some way. I am not saying they don’t deserve it, but the constant battering takes its toll on investor psyche towards the sector. Fri, 05 Mar 2010 12:29:25 -0500 Financials Sector ETFs Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14771 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14770 THE ETF Spotlight: IYC, XRT Fri, 05 Mar 2010 09:47:42 -0500 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14770 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14769 Fri, 05 Mar 2010 09:39:26 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14769 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14768 Fri, 05 Mar 2010 09:11:51 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14768 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14767 Fri, 05 Mar 2010 08:33:41 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14767 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14766 With this article I am initiating a new series called "Face-off."  My mission is identifying and writing about the best sources on a topic -- finding expertise and explaining arguments.  This is in sharp contrast to most others who purport to be experts on nearly everything.  By comparison, my claim is quite modest!In this new series I plan to take a topic of interest and present opposing viewpoints.  I always review comments, but I am especially interested in reactions as I develop this theme.Background:  The CFTC Takes Action Fri, 05 Mar 2010 08:32:36 -0500 Education Financials The Market Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14766 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14765 NFP -68,000 vs -20,000 Unemployment Rate 9.8% vs 9.7% Manufacturing is expected to show a decline of -15K vs +11K last month Weekly hours are expected to come in at 33.7 vs 33.9.  This is still low and is indicative of a slack capacity. EURUSD    Fri, 05 Mar 2010 08:30:33 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14765 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14764 Fri, 05 Mar 2010 08:21:47 -0500 Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14764 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14761   David Brown Thu, 04 Mar 2010 11:06:07 -0500 Premium Newsletter Jane Sonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14761 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14760 Thu, 04 Mar 2010 05:48:34 -0500 Agriculture Crude Nat Gas Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14760 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14759 Thu, 04 Mar 2010 04:58:13 -0500 Base Metals Technical Analysis Technician's Edge Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14759 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14758 Thu, 04 Mar 2010 03:24:16 -0500 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14758 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14757 Not surprisingly, I received quite a few VIX charts in last week's chart of the week contest. After several reader requests, I am taking the liberty of posting some of my favorites that fell just short of the (highly subjective) gold medal, but probably should have been somewhere on the podium. Thu, 04 Mar 2010 02:50:49 -0500 Options Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14757 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14756 With the number of Active ETFs in the US expanding rapidly and the total market capitalization exceeding $270 million, it was time to provide our readers with a database of all the existing actively-managed ETFs. Thu, 04 Mar 2010 02:12:57 -0500 Speciality ETFs Shishir Nigamhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14756 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14755 I wanted to follow-up and highlight an interesting point in the recent price rally in Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) - specifically with regard to the price bounce off the key ‘last-support' level I previously mentioned. It's an interesting lesson that's worth repeating - here's the chart: Thu, 04 Mar 2010 02:07:46 -0500 Hardware Software Technical Analysis GOOG Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14755 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14754 Thu, 04 Mar 2010 01:58:12 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14754 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14753 Thu, 04 Mar 2010 01:34:24 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14753 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14751 The surge in popularity of ETFs is often credited with bringing buy-and-hold investors a cost-efficient alternative to traditional actively-managed mutual funds. But ETFs are also responsible for bringing several asset classes previously available only to the largest and most sophisticated individuals and institutions within reach of investors on all levels. Thu, 04 Mar 2010 01:29:32 -0500 Agriculture Options Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14751 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14750 A week ago, the head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, suggested the global lending organization might be called upon to provide its 186-nation constituency an alternative to the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. Thu, 04 Mar 2010 01:21:54 -0500 Economy Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14750 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14749 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.3%Earlier this week ("Add Soft Wheat To Your Hard Asset List"), we noted bottoming action and bullish seasonality in Chicago wheat futures bolstering the price of the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Grains Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSE: JJG). Thu, 04 Mar 2010 01:13:31 -0500 Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14749 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14748 The U.S. dollar is trading sharply higher against the euro and Japanese Yen ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls report. With the last 2 monetary policy decisions behind us, the NFP report will now have the market's undivided attention. No fireworks came out of the BoE and ECB rate decisions as U.K. policy makers left the tone of their monetary statement unchanged while the ECB announced additional measures to phase out excess liquidity. The euro failed to rally because the central bank remained very cautious on the economic outlook and downgraded their inflation forecasts. Thu, 04 Mar 2010 01:09:07 -0500 Asia Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14748 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14747 1) After reading a piece on Falkenblog yesterday, I decided to add up all of the profits from Fannie and Freddie over the last 20 years.  Ready for how much they made?  Ta-da!  They lost $114 billion.When writing at RealMoney, I was always skeptical of the GSEs, and felt that they were too lightly reserved, because eventually they would run into a situation where real estate prices would fall. Thu, 04 Mar 2010 01:04:48 -0500 Economy David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14747 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14746 Today’s weekly update on new jobless claims offers a reprieve on the darker visions conjured on these pages in recent weeks, including here. New filings for unemployment benefits dropped last week to by 29,000 to 469,000. Whew, that was a close one! But the risk for this series that we’ve been discussing lately is still with us, even if the latest report offers some breathing room for thinking positively. Thu, 04 Mar 2010 12:42:32 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14746 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14745 Yesterday I explored a pattern where the SPY made a gap up, a move higher and then closed poorly. It showed bullish inclinations. Wednesday's bar shared a lot of matching characteristics with Tuesday's. Below I looked at other times there were back to back bars with such similar traits. Thu, 04 Mar 2010 12:32:45 -0500 Technical Analysis SPY Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14745 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14744 The message from President Obama's health-care speech yesterday is game on—jam it through with virtually nothing for Republicans. It's more of the same old, same old. In other words, full-speed ahead on massive entitlement spending; tax hikes on investors, businesses, and individuals; and over-regulating government bureaucratic boards to control prices, ration care, slam the insurance companies, and, frankly, redistribute income. The Obama administration is basically taking a giant government step that the country doesn't want it to take. Thu, 04 Mar 2010 12:01:38 -0500 The Market Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14744 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14743 Here we are testing the 78.6 Fibonacci Level. You've all heard us say that the OTC Comp leads the market. Well we have an even better leader and that is the Russell 2000 index below. Thu, 04 Mar 2010 11:43:19 -0500 Technical Analysis David Grandeyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14743 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14734 One question we frequently receive has to do with the creation and redemption process of exchange traded funds (ETFs). This unique process is the reason ETFs are tax efficient. But to understand how the process works, it helps to step back and look at how mutual funds operate. When investors in mutual funds make redemptions, shares held within the fund need to be sold in order to raise cash to meet that redemption, triggering a taxable event. Thu, 04 Mar 2010 10:48:13 -0500 Education ETFs Tom Lydonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14734 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14733 Thu, 04 Mar 2010 09:33:48 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14733 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14732 Thu, 04 Mar 2010 09:32:13 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14732 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14731 In retrospect, recognizing only one winner for the chart of the week contest was probably a little short sighted on my part, particularly given the very high quality of the entries. Thu, 04 Mar 2010 08:45:46 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14731 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14730 Thu, 04 Mar 2010 08:42:38 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14730 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14729    Thu, 04 Mar 2010 08:40:39 -0500 Currencies Economy Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14729 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14728 The monthly employment situation report remains the "A list" economic indicator.  Pundits love it.  There are so many facets.  If you want to spin, opportunities abound.The official data is the best effort of capable and talented people.  They have created a methodology.  When new data are available, the BLS revises the result.The result?  A happy hunting ground for critics. Since so few understand the methodology, and so many have a deep suspicion of government, the bearish spinners have the upper hand.  Let's start with how I approach the problem. Thu, 04 Mar 2010 12:12:19 -0500 Economy Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14728 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14722 Wed, 03 Mar 2010 04:19:44 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14722 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14721 If you’re like me, you get a whole lot of financial e-junk… spam filter or not. Yet one marketing pitch for an e-letter did sneak into my “Must Read” box last week. Here’s a brief synopsis from the sales plug:  China used to be one of the hottest markets in the world. But not anymore. The iShares China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI) is about to signal a catastrophic bear market, the likes of which you’re just not prepared for. Wed, 03 Mar 2010 04:04:33 -0500 Asia Broad Market ETFs Emerging Markets International ETFs FXI Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14721 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14719 Kathy Lien appeared on Fox Business to talk about the overstretched positions in the euro and British pound as well as the outlook for the ECB, BoE and Non-farm payrolls report. Wed, 03 Mar 2010 03:59:00 -0500 Home Page Video Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14719 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14718 Yet again, we're seeing a situation where we have a multi-day decline in the three-key market internals when compared with the price of the S&P 500 or SPY ETF. That sets up a major non-confirmation and increases that odds that we'll see a price reversal/retracement to test lower levels, barring any unforeseen bullish news here. We're seeing the 5-min SPY (or SPX or @ES) chart when compared with Breadth, TICK, and Volume Differential. Wed, 03 Mar 2010 02:54:37 -0500 Broad Market ETFs Technical Analysis SPY SPX Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14718 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14717 Readers will have to excuse my tone this week, but I'm just plain mad, for reasons that will be apparent to you shortly.Friends, what we are seeing now is the beginning of what may be (at least for awhile) one of the biggest jobless recoveries in American history. Unfortunately layoffs are continuing across almost every sector, but they are now spreading to even the highest rungs of the corporate ladder. Wed, 03 Mar 2010 03:51:51 -0500 Economy Politics Dock David Treecehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14717 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14716 Wed, 03 Mar 2010 03:19:21 -0500 Currencies Economy Europe Technical Analysis Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14716 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14715 Roughly three months later than originally scheduled, the fiscal year 2009 Financial Report of the United States Government came out.  I had predicted a few times (latest here) that the final total of debts and unfunded liabilities would be about 4x GDP.  Well, I was close: Wed, 03 Mar 2010 02:53:35 -0500 Economy David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14715 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14714 That's a question I've been highlighting frequently, with the type of day structure repeating, almost forming a script.  What's interesting is that - as of 1:00 EST - I can highlight the direct comparisons so far in today's trading that are identical in everything but price to yesterday's morning action. There's no guarantee that the market will continue following the script, but if it does, why not try to take advantage of it, as if the pathway forward for price was made clear. Let's at least see the pattern. Wed, 03 Mar 2010 02:03:06 -0500 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14714 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14713 Quite a power move.  Did I mention we are short-term overbought?  Color me now net short.  Well, in spite of the mid-day pause, internals are still very strong.  Watch that multi-day trend-line support carefully now. Wed, 03 Mar 2010 01:15:47 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14713 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14712 Wed, 03 Mar 2010 12:56:42 -0500 Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14712 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14711 Wed, 03 Mar 2010 12:53:28 -0500 Precious Metals Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14711 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14710 Like the S&P 500 (CBOE: SPX), Gold broke above a key declining resistance level recently and is in the "open air" zone which is set to challenge the next overhead resistance target. Wed, 03 Mar 2010 12:50:55 -0500 Precious Metals Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Technician's Edge SPX Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14710 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14708 Two new private-sector reviews of last month’s labor market show that the economy is still shedding jobs. The only good news is that the rate of loss continues to slow. But a loss is still a loss at this late date in the economic cycle, and today’s numbers suggest that Friday’s monthly update on jobs from the government may suffer another round of red ink, albeit in relatively mild form. Wed, 03 Mar 2010 12:26:34 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14708 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14707 Roughly three months later than originally scheduled, the fiscal year 2009 Financial Report of the United States Government came out.  I had predicted a few times (latest here) that the final total of debts and unfunded liabilities would be about 4x GDP.  Well, I was close: Wed, 03 Mar 2010 12:25:36 -0500 Economy David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14707 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14706 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.2% This week, the oil industry and Oil Patch watchers were all on the same side with their inventory guesses, but to vastly different degrees. Wed, 03 Mar 2010 12:24:18 -0500 Crude Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14706 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14705 Wed, 03 Mar 2010 12:16:09 -0500 Broad Market ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14705 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14704 Baz asked if I was sure about uncertainty? I am not sure whether he means if I am sure that uncertainty is a trader’s perpetual companion or whether he believes there is certainty in the markets… But for the purposes of this blog, I’ll assume that meant whether I am sure that uncertainty is a trader’s companion. I start from the premise that charts are a reflection of  the actions of the buyers and seller i.e. a reflection of human action. If you accept that premise, then ‘certainty’ must go out the door. Wed, 03 Mar 2010 12:04:29 -0500 Education Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14704 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14703 The Bunning Blockade: Sen. Jim Bunning was right all along. He was just trying to get the Senate to enforce its own pay-go budget rule and actually find $10 billion of spending cuts out of a $3.5 trillion budget to pay for extended unemployment benefits and other items in a catch-all spending bill. For this, an act of integrity, everyone in Washington and the media piled on him. So I'll defend him. Bunning actually favors unemployment benefits, but he wants Congress to find $10 billion in a $3.5 trillion budget to pay for it. Wed, 03 Mar 2010 12:02:48 -0500 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14703 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14702 When the market puts in a bar like SPY did on Tuesday I always hear people suggest that the weak finish indicates the bulls are losing control and a pullback is likely to follow. These claims sound reasonable but are generally way off base. To demonstrate I ran a test of performance following unfilled upside gaps that make a 20-day high. Below I've broken out the results by times the SPY closed above the open versus times it closed below the open.First let's look at those times where the finish was relatively strong: Wed, 03 Mar 2010 11:17:33 -0500 Technical Analysis SPY Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14702 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14701 Wed, 03 Mar 2010 11:07:20 -0500 Currencies Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14701 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14700 Wed, 03 Mar 2010 09:25:23 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14700 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14699 Wed, 03 Mar 2010 09:20:09 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14699 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14698 Wed, 03 Mar 2010 09:19:05 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14698 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14697 After such a long entry last week I thought I would spare my readers and do something much briefer.  A few days ago I read a good article ("Stuck on Neutral") about Japan in the August 18 issue of the Economist.  You can find the article on the Economist website if you are a premium subscriber, but if not, it has been partly reprinted elsewhere. Wed, 03 Mar 2010 08:29:35 -0500 Asia Economy Michael Pettishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14697 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14696    The EURUSD has had resistance at the 1.3654 coming into the trading day and continues to have resistance at the 1.3654 level. The  high did extend to a intraday high of 1.3670 but it was reversed.  The price is now back down on the comment that Germany would not provide debt aid to Greece despite the austerity measures announced today.  Wed, 03 Mar 2010 08:22:26 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14696 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14695 Tue, 02 Mar 2010 05:22:24 -0500 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14695 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14694 I previously wrote an article entitled, "PHYS: Now You Can Store Your Gold in Canada."   After discussions with Michael Traynor of the National Stock Exchange, I agree with their conclusion that PHYS is not an ETF. Tue, 02 Mar 2010 05:12:23 -0500 New ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14694 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14693 "Even the heavens rain on a dog’s arse some days." — AnonymousAre there going to be bear markets? Of course there are, and we’ve seen some doozies. The last decade gave us two wealth-destructing stock bears — the infamous 2000-2002 dot-com disaster as well as the 2008 credit collapse. In fact, another bear could happen sooner than most folks think. Tue, 02 Mar 2010 04:20:24 -0500 Broad Market ETFs International ETFs Speciality ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14693 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14692 Tue, 02 Mar 2010 04:09:13 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14692 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14691 I couldn't pass up posting on the almost perfect short-term rising parallel trendline channel that has formed on the intraday chart of Crude Oil futures. It allows us to observe a key channeling formation and learn an important lesson - that divergences can persist and give false signals while price remains in a powerful trend, and that it is more important to watch what price is doing in order to generate trading signals - an important lesson on all timeframes. Let's take a look: Tue, 02 Mar 2010 02:43:59 -0500 Crude Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14691 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14690 Tue, 02 Mar 2010 02:30:51 -0500 Canada Currencies Technical Analysis Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14690 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14689 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.1% I'm so disappointed in Colin McCabe. You remember McCabe, don't you? He's the supposed editor of the ubiquitous Elite Stock Report we wrote about in "A Golden Future In Your Mailbox." Tue, 02 Mar 2010 02:09:09 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14689 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14688 Two months into 2010, hopes for a smooth, steady year for equity markets have already been dashed. After stumbling out of the gates as worries about the euro zone and the sustainability of China’s impressive growth, most equity markets bounced back in February, as rounds of solid economic data sparked renewed optimism in the U.S. recovery effort. Tue, 02 Mar 2010 01:15:59 -0500 Sector ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14688 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14687 Tue, 02 Mar 2010 12:59:22 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14687 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14686 Tue, 02 Mar 2010 12:57:08 -0500 Economy David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14686 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14685 Tue, 02 Mar 2010 12:51:27 -0500 Agriculture Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14685 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14684 Everyone has a prescription for managing the business cycle these days, but no one has a solution. That’s because there are none, at least nothing that passes the smell test of a workable system that can deliver nirvana: maintaining capitalism’s power to drive economic growth while eliminating its tendency for stumbling from time to time. Tue, 02 Mar 2010 11:52:09 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14684 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14683 In the 70s, buy-n-hold investors in the U.S. didn’t experience capital gains for 16 years (1966-1982); they didn’t see any cap app for the 10 years (2000-2009) of the last decade either. That’s why dividend enthusiasts like to remind the “easy money” crowd that you can’t count on prices going higher. However, you may be able to count on cash flow or reinvested dividends from companies that reliably and consistently increase their payouts to shareholders. Tue, 02 Mar 2010 11:47:51 -0500 Speciality ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14683 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14682 Humans crave certainty and when the activities we engage in fail to provide it, we go out of our to seek and/or create it.  This I believe is the main reason why patently absurd ads in the trading game are so successful. Tue, 02 Mar 2010 11:34:41 -0500 Currencies Education Europe Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14682 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14681 The number of exchange-traded products (ETPs) on ETF Deathwatch crept back into triple-digits this month.  For March, the quantity is 104 (71 ETFs and 33 ETNs), up from the 99 for February. Tue, 02 Mar 2010 11:24:44 -0500 ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14681 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14680 The irrelevance of "Peak Gold" Tue, 02 Mar 2010 11:06:36 -0500 Economy Steve Savillehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14680 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14678 Tue, 02 Mar 2010 09:09:50 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14678 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14677    Tue, 02 Mar 2010 09:08:49 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14677 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14676 Tue, 02 Mar 2010 09:05:44 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14676 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14675 Tue, 02 Mar 2010 08:30:09 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14675 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14673 If the bulls had been paying attention to the economic indicators reported last week, you'd assume the market would be down substantially by now.  The fact is, however, that the S&P 500 is just down about -0.4% for the past calendar week, and today it's up over a full percent. Obviously, the bulls didn't see the surprising drop in Consumer Confidence, which fell to 46.0 from 56.6 in January, its lowest reading since early last year. Moreover, the lesser known Present Situation Index fell to 19.4, its lowest level in 27 years (which was in February 1983 when it was at 17.5). Tue, 02 Mar 2010 01:35:46 -0500 Technical Analysis David Brownhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14673 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14668 Mon, 01 Mar 2010 05:54:57 -0500 Sector ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14668 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14666 Mon, 01 Mar 2010 04:11:49 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14666 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14665 Let's take an afternoon look at the ‘popped stops' rally of March 1st, which shows divergences in Breadth and TICK - both important non-confirmations going forward. SPY 5-min Mar 1: First, let me state that divergences in internals do not guarantee reversals, but they signal non-confirmations of price highs which serve as ‘caution lights' or warning signals to take bullish profits and be on the alert for any weakness. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 03:22:37 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPY Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14665 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14664 The trend in February was again one of posting a wide range of results and a shifting pattern of winners and losers on a monthly basis. This isn't a shock, but more of it is probably coming, meaning that a new set of challenges await for managing asset allocation relative to the trend for much of the past 12 months. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 03:05:29 -0500 Bonds Commodities Economy Emerging Markets Global REITs Int'l Sector ETFs Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14664 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14663 With mixed to slightly better than expected U.K. economic data, traders may be scratching their heads about why the British pound has collapsed more than 300 pips this morning. Here are a couple of reasons: 1. Britain's Prudential announced plans to buy AIG's Asia operations for $35.5 billion in cash and stock - since this is partially a cash deal, it will involve selling British pounds. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 02:30:54 -0500 Aussie/NZ Currencies Europe Technical Analysis Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14663 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14662 Thanks to all who submitted charts for the chart of the week contest. After getting off to a slow start, I was somewhat skeptical that my idea of opening up the chart of the week to readers would turn out as I had hoped, but when over two dozen submissions landed in my inbox, I was humbled by the breadth and depth of the body of work they represented. Alas there can only be one gold medal and this time around (I'm sure I will do this again), the winner is Amir from Las Vegas. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 01:50:27 -0500 Options Technical Analysis Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14662 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14661 Today’s personal income and spending update for January looks like a warning of things to come, but not for the obvious reasons. The weasel in the henhouse is all the more troubling at the moment since it's masked by the all-important topic of consumer spending, which rose substantially last month. Beneath this rosy surface, however, is a potentially troubling trend. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 01:32:12 -0500 Economy Politics Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14661 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14660 Mon, 01 Mar 2010 01:12:20 -0500 Base Metals Emerging Markets Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14660 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14659 Although the SPY has found some intermediate resistance at R2 ($111.90), internals are otherwise looking very healthy and the VIX now lies in the low 19s.  Short-term daily oscillators are looking a little overbought, so momentum will have to be especially strong to carry this forward. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 01:04:07 -0500 Traders' Talk SPY Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14659 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14658 It's already March 1st and the market is off to an early rally! With a new week and a new month upon us, let's take a quick look at some of the key indicators/charts that the Disciplined Investor - Andrew Horowitz - is watching on March 1st. Today's update is entitled, "An Apathetic Condition" (interesting title): Mon, 01 Mar 2010 12:59:45 -0500 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14658 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14657 Real-time Monetary Inflation: 1.7% Marie Antoinette's insensitivity to peasants' lack of bread, among other things, was paid for with a trip to the guillotine. "Let them eat cake" was an impolitic thing to say during the Reign of Terror. Not so now. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 12:30:17 -0500 Agriculture Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14657 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14656 The U.S. dollar is trading higher against every major currency except for the Aussie, because the market expects an interest rate hike from Australia this evening. It will be an exceptionally busy week in the forex markets with 4 central bank monetary policy announcements and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due for release. Volatility has already hit the British pound which is down more than 2 percent this morning on fears of further Quantitative Easing from the BoE and news that Britain's Prudential plans to buy AIG's Asia operations for $35.5 billion in cash and stock.. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 12:27:55 -0500 Canada Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14656 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14655 18 new exchange traded products (ETPs) launched in February: 17 ETFs and one ETN.  No products were delisted.  The number of US-listed products now stands at 965 (874 ETFs and 91 ETNs). February ended the three-month streak where new product launches exceeded 20.  It was also the second month in a row with no closures, but that streak will not be extended as WisdomTree plans to close 10 funds in March. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 12:24:21 -0500 Broad Market ETFs International ETFs Speciality ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14655 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14654 Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE: PHYS), the latest physically backed gold exchange-traded product began trading yesterday (2/26/10) on the NYSE.  The fund also applied for listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol PHY, but it appears that Canadian trading has not yet commenced.  The fund will be managed by Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management and will store its gold at the Royal Canadian Mint. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 12:21:16 -0500 Precious Metals Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14654 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14653 As the euro is plunging (and dollar by implication surging) with gold yet again flat and looking like it may turn positive for the day, gold denominated in euros just hit another all time record of €827. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 12:20:53 -0500 Currencies Europe Precious Metals Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14653 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14652 Earthquake in Chile!!!  Mon, 01 Mar 2010 12:11:25 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Philip Davishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14652 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14647 In the new Neurological model of learning, the key initial step is what Coyle calls, 'the ignition process'. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 11:45:26 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14647 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14646 Mon, 01 Mar 2010 11:39:38 -0500 Economy Bob Langhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14646 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14645 So here we are, still in this B wave up, snapback rally, whatever you want to call it  While the Full Stochastics are back to being overbought we have the general structure showing the potential of some more work to do on the upside next week. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 11:24:40 -0500 Technical Analysis David Grandeyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14645 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14641 I don't have to say much about these numbers so I'll pretty much let them speak for themselves. From the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning: Mon, 01 Mar 2010 10:21:23 -0500 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14641 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14639 Mon, 01 Mar 2010 08:59:08 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14639 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14638 Let's pose an important investment question:  What sector has the best chance of doing well over the next decade?My vote would be for biotech.  An aging population will need more health care.  The big discoveries in drugs are coming from biotech.  While the exact path to profits may be tricky for an individual company, the attractiveness of the sector is manifest.Sometimes our model makes a short-term call that aligns with the interest of the long-term investor.Background Mon, 01 Mar 2010 08:58:15 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis The Market Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14638 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14637 While doing some weekend research, I came across an interesting development. At first glance, I saw that the Consumer Staples Sector SPDR - XLP - was making new recovery highs (new 2010 highs).  My first thought was that this was a very bearish development that could be underscoring risk-aversion in that money is flowing into 'safer' stocks according to the Sector Rotation Model. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 08:54:11 -0500 Technical Analysis The Market Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14637 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14636 I dare you to Google "options trading" and then spend the next five hours combing through the results. When it comes to options trading, the signal-to-noise ratio online is so low it can be difficult to find new or useful information. That's one of the reasons we started Expiring Monthly: The Option Traders Journal - to provide a venue for traders to find smart, fresh ideas. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 08:52:02 -0500 Education Options Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14636 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14635 Typically we see the 1st day of the month provide a bit of a bullish tendency. This tendency really began to take hold in the late 80's when 401k plans started to become more popular and regular stock inflows began to occur at the beginning of the month. Last July I broke this edge out by month. Below is a copy of that chart (not updated). Mon, 01 Mar 2010 08:49:38 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14635 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14634 Given the dismal response to the chart of the week contest, I thought a couple of suggestions and hints might be in order to help get the graphics flowing. For starters, creating charts is easy. Making charts that tell a compelling story only requires a little bit of insight and effort. Sometimes the best way to make a interesting chart is just to look at a bunch of them until one of them jumps off the page and forces you to take notice. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 08:47:48 -0500 Education Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14634 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14633 Welcome to the Weekly Market Digest for the period ending 2-26-2010. Overall, a quiet week as the S&P declined .42% for the period. Before getting into the charts, I wanted to start with a few general site announcements. Over the last week or so, we have been working hard to enhance the user experience here at Portfolio Tilt. Many aesthetic changes have been made, some content has been relocated while redundant links and modules have been removed. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 08:46:15 -0500 Technical Analysis The Market Drew Birenbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14633 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14632    The USDCAD comes in at +5.0% for the 4th quarter higher than the 4.2% expectations.  This has sent the USDCAD lower.   The price has broken through the 100 and 200 hour MA and tests the 61.8 % of the Feb 22nd low tot he Feb 25th low. at the 1.0486 level.  Upside resistance comes in at the 200 hour MA at the 1.0494 level and then at the 1.0523 level.   Mon, 01 Mar 2010 08:41:31 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14632 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14631 Mon, 01 Mar 2010 08:39:43 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14631 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14630 The trend in February was again one of posting a wide range of results and a shifting pattern of winners and losers on a monthly basis. This isn't a shock, but more of it is probably coming, meaning that a new set of challenges await for managing asset allocation relative to the trend for much of the past 12 months. Mon, 01 Mar 2010 08:38:43 -0500 Technical Analysis The Market Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14630 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14628 Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP Fri, 26 Feb 2010 02:12:00 -0500 Currencies Europe Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14628 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14626 Even if you don't trade or look at the Japanese Yen Index charts, the Yen Index formed an interested "busted" (so far) head and shoulders pattern on its daily chart that is worth an educational look. Beyond that, let's look at the key levels to watch for an upside or downside break of current trendline boundaries. Fri, 26 Feb 2010 01:11:12 -0500 Asia Currencies Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14626 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14625 Pretty boring end-of-month, huh?  Well, there is always miracle Monday.  All in all, internals aren't too bad, but mostly sideways trade indicated.  What's that they say about dull markets....?  Well, it's pretty tempting though, isn't it? Fri, 26 Feb 2010 12:51:01 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14625 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14624 Fri, 26 Feb 2010 12:46:44 -0500 Precious Metals Scott Wrighthttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14624 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14622 Fri, 26 Feb 2010 12:35:47 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14622 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14621 Much of the time when the market has had bad days as of late people have pointed to troubles in Greece and Europe as the reason. I decided to isolate the US market a bit to see how much of the selling really could be attributed to Europe's woes. The top pane of the chart shows closing half-hour readings for the SPY from the market top in the middle of January through Thursday's close. The bottom pane shows an indicator that measures the movement of the US market from the time Europe is all closed at 11:30 EST until the NYSE closes at 4pm EST. Fri, 26 Feb 2010 12:32:53 -0500 Europe Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPY Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14621 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14620 To this point in 2010, investors around the globe have paid close attention to every development in the euro zone, as crumbling public finances in the region have threatened to spark a wave of crippling defaults and have called into question the sustainability of the common currency. Most of the attention has focused on Greece, where a skyrocketing public deficit has set the stage for a downgrade of sovereign debt to below investment grade. Fri, 26 Feb 2010 12:30:21 -0500 Education Europe International ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14620 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14619 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12-months): 2.1%This week's market activity provided little reason for the Fed to withdraw its accommodation. A decline in Treasury yields pretty fairly well matched the uptick in commodity prices.Key inflation markers for the week ending Thursday: Fri, 26 Feb 2010 12:29:37 -0500 Economy Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14619 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14618 In a recent editorial, I explained why regional European funds might come back in favor. I even made a case for why iShares MSCI Italy (NYSE: EWI) could be particularly rewarding. Fri, 26 Feb 2010 12:10:21 -0500 Europe International ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14618 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14617 Fri, 26 Feb 2010 11:02:49 -0500 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14617 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14616 Fri, 26 Feb 2010 09:29:27 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14616 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14615 Fri, 26 Feb 2010 09:03:42 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14615 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14614 ETF SPOTLIGHT 02/26/2010 Fri, 26 Feb 2010 08:36:30 -0500 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14614 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14613 In my 2010 preview, I highlighted health stocks as a group to own.  I mentioned the Health Care SPDR (XLV) as a basic choice, but I have a shopping list of specific names in mind.  These include providers, insurance companies, and health information technology.With today's Health Care Summit, we can start to visualize the end game.Not Political Opinion Fri, 26 Feb 2010 08:24:03 -0500 Economy The Market XLV Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14613 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14612 The EURUSD is moving below back below the 200 bar MA at the 1.3589 level.   At around the same time, the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart was being broken at the 1.3586 level.  These two levels should now provide resistance for the EURUSD.   Fri, 26 Feb 2010 08:22:38 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14612 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14611 Since I launched the chart of the week feature in November 2008 (I guess it was a quiet month and I had nothing else to do...) I have elected to create most of the graphics myself and pluck a few from out of the public domain. Fri, 26 Feb 2010 08:18:29 -0500 Education Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14611 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14610 This post was prompted by Barry's article Credit Rating Firms: Worthless in a Bull market, Damaging in a Bear Markets. Thu, 25 Feb 2010 06:54:16 -0500 Bonds Economy Education David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14610 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14609   David Brown Thu, 25 Feb 2010 06:39:19 -0500 Premium Newsletter Jane Sonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14609 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14608 Thu, 25 Feb 2010 06:03:01 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14608 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14607 I've been asking the question, rhetorically, "How many times will the market repeat the same pattern," (see prior post for previous examples) and the answer is "at least one more time... today." What pattern is that?  And how can knowing the pattern help your trading?  Let's take a look. Thu, 25 Feb 2010 06:02:40 -0500 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14607 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14606 The Financial Times carried a long article yesterday by Peter Garnham on the fears for the future of the dollar carry trade. The key takeaway from the article is that China estimates the dollar carry trade to be $1.5 trillion compared to an $1 trillion that was put into the Yen carry trade (the Yen estimate is not from China but from an independent economics firm). Thu, 25 Feb 2010 05:37:48 -0500 Asia Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14606 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14601 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 1.8% There are always three possible trends for a market at any given time: up, down or sideways. Experienced traders appreciate the fact that markets often tread water before making substantial and sustained moves up or down. Thu, 25 Feb 2010 03:25:35 -0500 Options Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14601 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14600 In an interesting development, the US Dollar Index (shown here in the @DX futures contract) has been riding a clearly defined trend channel higher, with a few bumps along the road. Let's take a quick look at the current structure and note the most important price levels to watch going forward - in the event of any sudden price breaks. (Click for full-size image at Chart.ly) Thu, 25 Feb 2010 02:18:54 -0500 Currencies Economy Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14600 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14599 Yay, more free money!  Oh not for you (unless you are a banker) but for all of Ben's best buddies as the Fed Chairman promised yesterday to maintain "exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."  He can do this because, according to Bernanke: Thu, 25 Feb 2010 02:09:02 -0500 Economy Philip Davishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14599 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14598 Crude Oil violated a key rising trendline today, which perhaps in part exacerbated the sell-off we're seeing today as buyers took profits and sellers entered new bearish positions on the trendline violation. How low can it go?Let's drop down to the specifics of the 60min chart of the crude oil futures. Thu, 25 Feb 2010 02:05:54 -0500 Crude Technical Analysis Technician's Edge Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14598 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14590 Thu, 25 Feb 2010 01:43:37 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14590 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14589 Oil ETFs miserably fail at replicating the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. If you'd like to learn why this is so, you may wish to review a well-written article that explains contango and backwardation.However, my goal is far more basic. I only wish to help investors visualize just how far off the performance mark an Oil ETF can be. Thu, 25 Feb 2010 01:36:06 -0500 Crude Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14589 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14588 Many investors point to the rise of the ETF industry as a clear shift in preferences away from relatively expensive active management in favor of low-cost indexing. It's been said that the alpha hunters have evolved into beta grazers. But the benefits of the ETF structure aren't reserved solely for passive cap-weighted products, and the last few years have seen a huge increase in the number of ETFs that blur the lines between active and passive management. Thu, 25 Feb 2010 01:26:06 -0500 Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14588 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14587 We have long observed the recent tendency for the EURJPY to track the SPY almost identically on an intraday basis. Today, this relationship is no exception. Thu, 25 Feb 2010 01:13:45 -0500 Asia Currencies Economy Europe Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPY Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14587 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14586 Thu, 25 Feb 2010 12:58:24 -0500 Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14586 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14585 I used to dread going to my mailbox. Often the dross-everything from weighty and mostly useless packets of advertising coupons to solicitations for free trial memberships at local fitness clubs-outweighed the legitimate mail. Thu, 25 Feb 2010 12:46:53 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14585 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14584 The labor market may be facing new challenges, but new orders for durable goods rose again last month. This leading indicator of future economic activity increased 3.0% in January, the Census Bureau reports this morning. That's good news, of course, although we're in no mood to celebrate, given the apparent reversal of fortunes in jobless claims, as we discussed in our previous post. Thu, 25 Feb 2010 12:38:56 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14584 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14583 When I first started trading I confused ‘reality’ with my ‘perception of reality’. As a result, I fell into the ‘certainty’ and ‘hindsight bias’ traps. Thu, 25 Feb 2010 11:48:02 -0500 Education Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14583 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14581 Thu, 25 Feb 2010 11:37:04 -0500 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14581 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14580 For the last two years, a series of studies has revealed that individual investors are leading the charge when it comes to ETFs. According to Cogent Research, U.S. households with investable assets of at least $100,000 are putting more money into ETFs and almost two-thirds of U.S. investors bought ETFs without the aid of an advisor. Christy White, Cogent Research co-founder, stated that 40% of current self-directed ETF owners plan to increase their use of ETF products, compared to only 26% of advised ETF owners. Thu, 25 Feb 2010 11:11:06 -0500 Education ETFs Tom Lydonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14580 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14579 Taking a look at the chart on crude we see the price of oil is pushing above the $80 level yet again. This is not a good sign for consumers has gasoline prices are following to the upside. Economic impact aside we have to take not of the rise off the low in early February. We are up better than 12% on this move. How much higher does oil move is an important question. We have made two trips to this level over the last five months. Is this the time we break higher and push towards the $100 level again? Thu, 25 Feb 2010 10:17:10 -0500 Crude Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14579 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14577 Thu, 25 Feb 2010 09:16:12 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14577 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14576 Thu, 25 Feb 2010 08:51:59 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14576 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14575    The GBPUSD tested the 50% retracement target at the 1.5282 level and bounced (low reached 1.5270).  The holding of the target gives profit takers a level to lean against. It gives bottom fishers a level to lean against.  As a result, it will continue to be a level to watch going forward today.   Thu, 25 Feb 2010 08:23:32 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14575 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14574 Thu, 25 Feb 2010 05:52:16 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14574 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14572 If you're one of those folks who believes in the concept of a "regression to the mean," then you had a rationale in 2008 for why Dow 14000 would crater below Dow 10000. Similarly, you had reason to expect that stocks with P/Es above 20 would eventually work their way back to long-term averages of 16. Wed, 24 Feb 2010 04:42:37 -0500 International ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14572 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14571 Wed, 24 Feb 2010 04:36:45 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14571 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14569 Wed, 24 Feb 2010 02:42:30 -0500 Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14569 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14568 Wed, 24 Feb 2010 02:32:56 -0500 Home Page Video Editorial Staffhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14568 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14567 Among the big headlines this week were the consumer confidence numbers, which came in surprisingly short of expectations, sending ripples through the financial markets. Fortunately for investors, consumer confidence, just like market sentiment, tends to be a good contrarian indicator. Thu, 25 Feb 2010 06:40:24 -0500 Economy Dock David Treecehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14567 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14566 My favorite long term forex trade is short GBP/AUD. From both a technical and fundamental basis, the currency should be headed lower. Wed, 24 Feb 2010 12:38:09 -0500 Aussie/NZ Currencies Economy Europe Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14566 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14565 Wed, 24 Feb 2010 01:21:38 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14565 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14564 A few readers have asked me to post on the current state of the EUR-USD FOREX pair, and indeed there's something interesting going on here and it's definitely worth a look. Let's see a long-term structure chart along with the key level to watch in the pair as we form positive divergences at the 61.8% Fibonacci Level - a very important inflection point for sure. Wed, 24 Feb 2010 01:21:13 -0500 Currencies Europe Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14564 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14562 Here's a clip selected from recent interviews of Ray Barros with NDTV: ‘Sensex can pull back in March end’Ray Barros, CEO at Ray Barros Trading Group, talked about the global and domestic markets and said that Sensex will pull back after correcting up to 13,200 levels in March end or early April. Wed, 24 Feb 2010 01:13:42 -0500 Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14562 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14561 It began with the Thanksgiving Day surprise by Dubai World - a wealth arm for the emirate of Dubai. Specifically, investors began to question whether or not a sovereign nation might default on its debt obligations. Shortly thereafter, we began to hear the "PIIGS" acronym. The letters represent 5 countries with hideous balance sheets, including Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. Wed, 24 Feb 2010 01:07:09 -0500 International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14561 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14560 Not everyone will describe the stock market as being stuck in an extended trading range. Stock assets muddled through December, then hit new highs in January. Shortly thereafter, stock assets corrected in February. Yet when all was said and done, the S&P 500 found itself in the same exact spot that it occupied 15 weeks earlier… right around 1098. Fancy that… an absence of conviction on either side of the bear-bull debate for 3 and 1/2 months. Wed, 24 Feb 2010 01:01:33 -0500 Broad Market ETFs Speciality ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14560 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14559 Wed, 24 Feb 2010 12:56:30 -0500 International ETFs New ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14559 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14558 Bernanke USUALLY boosts the market. Wed, 24 Feb 2010 12:48:18 -0500 Economy Philip Davishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14558 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14556 Bernanke is taking the stand this morning before the House of Representatives in Washington to deliver his semiannual report on monetary policy. Having already done this 8 times in the past, Bernanke knows that he is prepared to come under some serious grilling. Wed, 24 Feb 2010 12:34:12 -0500 Currencies Economy Housing Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14556 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14554 Yesterday's sharp downturn in the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for February has rattled investors, but the shift in sentiment isn't surprising. With the labor market still weak, it's only reasonable to expect that there'll be a price to pay in Joe Sixpack's outlook. Wed, 24 Feb 2010 12:30:42 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14554 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14552 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 1.9%. Well, you've got to give the American Petroleum Institute credit: It was pretty much on the money with its number. It just got the signage wrong. The industry-supported API forecast a 3.1- million-barrel drawdown in domestic crude oil stocks-the largest decline in nearly two months-while sell-side analysts called for a 1.9-million- to 2-million-barrel build. Wed, 24 Feb 2010 12:27:00 -0500 Crude Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14552 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14550 It's the NDX 100 Index off the 2007 peak. Does anything jump out at you? It should. Take a good look: We've talked about ABC's. We've talked about Fibonacci levels. We've talked about trend channels. That's a big picture chart. Now let's zoom in and look a little closer at the chart above. Wed, 24 Feb 2010 12:12:18 -0500 Technical Analysis David Grandeyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14550 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14546 Wed, 24 Feb 2010 09:16:54 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14546 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14545 Wed, 24 Feb 2010 08:36:59 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14545 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14544 The 1.3531-39 level is support for the EURUSD and it held on the early NY dip.  The topside is the 100 hour MA at the 1.3568 level currently.  A break above or below either level should lay the groundwork for the bias in NY.  On a break above the target becomes 1.3594 and then the 200 hour MA at the 1.3607 (green line in the chart below).    Wed, 24 Feb 2010 08:35:37 -0500 Currencies Economy Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14544 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14543 In examining Tuesday's action the Quantifinder spotted an interesting study from the 8/7/09 Blog that looks at QQQQ. I've updated the results below: Wed, 24 Feb 2010 08:22:49 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14543 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14542 Lately I have been a little light on posting due to various commitments that have kept me fully occupied. While I intend to start ramping up my posting frequency to previous levels, this seems like a good opportunity to highlight two relatively new bloggers who are serving up some excellent insights into volatility. Wed, 24 Feb 2010 08:21:40 -0500 Education Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14542 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14541 Today there was an extremely important story about employment.  It was not reported by any of your favorite media sources.  The most recently reported new job gains are the greatest since 1992.  This is not the full story, of course, so you need to read on.You should not be surprised, since here at "A Dash" I seem to have an "exclusive" on public information concerning actual hard data on job creation.  The real data are reported quarterly, but the reports lag by about nine months.A Review Wed, 24 Feb 2010 12:22:35 -0500 Economy Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14541 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14540 I wanted to highlight a critical area to watch in the stock of Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), both on the Daily and Weekly frame. We could be on the verge of a sharp downturn, so we need to monitor both the breakdown level and overhead resistance that would disconfirm the bearish omen if broken. First, the Weekly Chart: Tue, 23 Feb 2010 03:58:50 -0500 Tech Technical Analysis Technician's Edge GOOG Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14540 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14537 Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP Tue, 23 Feb 2010 03:02:39 -0500 Currencies Precious Metals Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14537 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14536 Silver prices are forming an interesting potential reversal (or downside continuation) pattern that's worth a look, as we're coming up into the key resistance level that will make or break the current short-term bear flag pattern that has formed within a larger term "rounded reversal." Let's take a quick look at Silver's Daily Chart: Tue, 23 Feb 2010 02:58:05 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14536 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14535 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.3% There's a lid on the gold market weighing down prices at the $1,127 level. That price should ring a bell with traders in the soon-to-expire February COMEX contract. That's the midpoint of a runaway gap created in November as prices raced to their December peak at $1,227. It's also a support level for a two-week reactive bounce in January. Tue, 23 Feb 2010 02:52:45 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14535 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14534 Americans are feeling pretty good about themselves at the moment. The U.S. hockey team upset the Canadian puck-handlers in Vancouver. That wasn’t supposed to happen. And an out-of-shape Bode Miller won a gold medal in the “super-combined” men’s downhill. That wasn’t supposed to happen either. Tue, 23 Feb 2010 01:23:43 -0500 Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14534 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14533 Tue, 23 Feb 2010 01:01:38 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14533 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14532 Tue, 23 Feb 2010 12:56:04 -0500 Asia International ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14532 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14530 Wed, 24 Feb 2010 12:02:30 -0500 Asia Bonds Currencies Economy Financials Precious Metals Technical Analysis Jim Welshhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14530 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14529 If you could only make one decision in your investment strategy, what would it be? Would you concentrate on picking the best securities? The best ETFs or mutual funds? Would you focus exclusively on trying to time your asset allocation/rebalancing choices? Or maybe you'd spend a lot of time deciding if Asian stocks would beat European equities in the foreseeable future. Or how about managing the risk, however defined, like a hawk? In any case, the question is simply this: Which variable in the money game is likely to have the most influence on the end result of performance? Tue, 23 Feb 2010 12:10:23 -0500 Education The Market Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14529 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14528 Gary asked: "Since I have gone about 10 sessions with positive expectancy I believe I have the bones of a working strategy and am naturally eager to get off the simulator...... Tue, 23 Feb 2010 12:07:35 -0500 Education Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14528 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14527 The U.S. dollar is trading higher this morning as weaker economic data from the Eurozone and dovish comments from Bank of England officials drive European currencies lower. However the strength of the dollar is confined only to higher yielding currencies as weaker consumer confidence pushes USD/JPY lower. Tue, 23 Feb 2010 12:00:33 -0500 Asia Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14527 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14526 "They are too big to fail" was the reason given for using trillions of dollars in money and guarantees to 'bail out' several large US banks during 2008-2009. Their failure, it was argued, would all but bring the entire economy to a standstill; such were the size and scope of their operations. Providing the banks whatever financial support they needed to remain in business was therefore touted as serving the "public interest". However, the "too big to fail" argument was a giant, multi-faceted lie. Tue, 23 Feb 2010 12:00:27 -0500 Economy Steve Savillehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14526 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14525 Over the last few days there has been a sharp contraction in volatility. In July I discussed an indicator that looks at the 3-day historical volatility and compares it to the historical volatility of the previous 10 days. When the ratio gets very low (below 0.25 in the study) it suggests a rapid expansion in volatility is likely. Tue, 23 Feb 2010 11:57:12 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14525 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14524 Tue, 23 Feb 2010 11:42:36 -0500 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14524 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14523 Market Vectors Egypt Index ETF (NYSE: EGPT), the first single-country fund offering US investors exposure to Egypt, was launched yesterday (February 18, 2010).  The underlying index includes publicly traded companies domiciled and primarily listed on an Egyptian exchange or that generate at least 50% of their revenues in Egypt. Tue, 23 Feb 2010 11:39:21 -0500 New ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14523 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14522 Tue, 23 Feb 2010 11:31:25 -0500 New ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14522 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14520 The Dow Jones US Financial Index led the markets yesterday and that warrants looking at the sector. Why? Simply because this sector has been a laggard. The defined trading range goes back to July 2009. We have traded within the range in an orderly fashion without concern or reason to change. As you can see on the chart of (NYSE: IYF), DJ US Financial Index ETF the range is defined on the high side by $54.50 and on the low side by $49. Tue, 23 Feb 2010 09:42:17 -0500 ETFs Financials Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14520 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14519 Tue, 23 Feb 2010 08:59:05 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14519 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14518 Tue, 23 Feb 2010 08:31:42 -0500 Technical Analysis David Brownhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14518 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14517 Tue, 23 Feb 2010 08:29:20 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14517 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14512 Just a quick reminder that the inaugural edition of Expiring Monthly: The Option Traders Journal, will be published one month from today, on Monday, March 22nd. Thereafter, the magazine will be published on the Monday following options expiration. Additionally, the pre-launch promotion of 20% off the annual subscription price will be available for only six more days. Subscribe at any time through February 28th, 2010 and receive one full year of Expiring Monthly at the discounted rate of $79. Tue, 23 Feb 2010 08:15:24 -0500 Education Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14512 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14511    Tue, 23 Feb 2010 08:13:17 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14511 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14510 Across the Curve is gone. Accrued Interest is gone. I'm still here, but bonds aren't my sole focus.  Long time readers know that I have a wide variety of interests in investing.  I sometimes think my following is smaller, because not everything I write appeals to my audience.  It is hard to predict what I will write about. Are there other good bond blogs?  I haven't seen any, but maybe my perspective is limited. Tue, 23 Feb 2010 02:41:47 -0500 Bonds David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14510 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14509 It has now been 5 trading days since the 2/11 classic Follow Through Day (a gain of 1% or more on higher volume). In the February 1, 2008 blog post I examined implications of market action directly after FTD's. In that post I found this early action to be a strong indication of whether a FTD was likely to succeed or not. A move higher in the SPX over the 1st 5 days after a FTD led to a successful rally about 2/3 of the time. Tue, 23 Feb 2010 02:37:43 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPX Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14509 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14508 The CRB Index is a composite of 19 commodities as segmented in smaller groups:  Agricultural, Energy, Metals, and even livestock, with Petroleum making up the largest weighting (33%).  Not surprisingly, the chart of the CRB often resembles that of Crude Oil relatively closely.Many investors and traders use the CRB Index to get a quick take on commodity markets as a whole, perhaps as a source of investment diversification or trading speculation (as was the case in early 2008). Mon, 22 Feb 2010 04:06:10 -0500 Technical Analysis Technician's Edge Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14508 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14506 Mon, 22 Feb 2010 03:07:19 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14506 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14505 The market is flashing signs that it might want to breakout to the upside, and Sabrient's SectorCast-ETF model seems to be projecting that it just might do it. This unbiased, value-oriented, quantitative model continues to favor sectors that are more dependent on economic growth, like Financials, InfoTech and Energy, which remain comfortably above the more defensive sectors like Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Telecom. Mon, 22 Feb 2010 03:05:00 -0500 Sector ETFs Technical Analysis Scott Martindalehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14505 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14503 Burger King's decision this week to raise the price of a double cheeseburger from $1 to $1.19 and to remove one slice of cheese from the double cheeseburger on its dollar menu (they now call it the BK Dollar Double) is a perfect example of the dilemma that major U.S. corporations are dealing with in the current economic environment. Mon, 22 Feb 2010 02:31:41 -0500 Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14503 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14502 Updating a similar theme from the end of last week, a current ‘updated' view of market internals of the S&P 500 show further deterioration, which underscores the heightened probability - but not certainty - of a market correction this week. Let's see the updated chart: See my previous update from February 18th: Mon, 22 Feb 2010 01:40:30 -0500 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14502 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14501 In the hierarchy of investment decisions, asset allocation is at or near the top of the list of variables that are strategically relevant for diversified portfolios. There are a number of studies telling us so, starting with the influential Brinson study from 1986-"Determinants of Portfolio Performance"-and its 1991 update. The basic message: asset allocation matters. Mon, 22 Feb 2010 01:37:45 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14501 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14500 Take any firefighter from my neck of the woods out for coffee (toss in a sandwich, too; it's an investment that can pay off handsomely) and you'll hear this plaint: "You'd think it's all over when we douse the flames, but it's not. We have to stick around long enough to suppress the hot spots. We often spend more time stamping out these little fires than we do on the blaze." Mon, 22 Feb 2010 01:34:39 -0500 Precious Metals Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14500 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14499 Mon, 22 Feb 2010 01:24:37 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14499 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14498 As the world changes, so do the correlations between different currencies and different instruments. It is a quiet morning in the forex markets with no U.S. or European data on the calendar. The dollar is trading slightly lower against most of the major currencies but the weakness is extremely nominal. Therefore we take this opportunity to update one of the most popular forex education articles that we have ever published is on the topic of correlations. Mon, 22 Feb 2010 01:16:15 -0500 Asia Aussie/NZ Bonds Canada Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14498 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14497 A reader recently alerted me to this article, "The inside Track, Commentary: Corporate insiders are betting this is a correction," which suggests that insiders are taking a renewed interest in buying shares of their stock.   One of the most bearish omens on Wall Street is for corporate insiders, in the face of a market decline, to accelerate the selling of their companies' shares. Mon, 22 Feb 2010 12:44:10 -0500 Technical Analysis Philip Davishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14497 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14490 Jeff Moodie  asked: I find it very interesting that the range from first to third was so large. It makes the FX trading look awfully tough.I wonder what the total stat chart looked like, if over 90% lost money in the game for instance. ---- Jeff, in this case, I believe that only the first 3 made money. But this is not a reflection of the ‘toughness' of FX but a reflection of the inexperience of the competitors in trading competitions. Mon, 22 Feb 2010 12:24:52 -0500 Education Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14490 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14489 Mon, 22 Feb 2010 12:21:47 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Bob Langhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14489 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14488 Mon, 22 Feb 2010 12:21:39 -0500 Bonds Economy International ETFs Precious Metals Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14488 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14484 As you can see Friday the indexes stopped cold on the 61.8% fibonacci level after an options expiration vertical assault up. Mon, 22 Feb 2010 11:58:13 -0500 Technical Analysis David Grandeyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14484 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14476 What a difference a month makes! It was only a month ago a leading financial publication came out with the story, "U.S. economy still hemorrhaging jobs despite stimulus." The press was all over the employment data and concluded that the stimulus had utterly failed. They were of course making the classic mistake of treating the employment numbers as coincident indicators, when in fact employment is the ultimate lagging indicator. Mon, 22 Feb 2010 11:13:34 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Clif Drokehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14476 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14473 Last week, in Chart of the Week: Retail Sales Recovering, I attempted to demonstrate that the much beleaguered U.S. consumer has actually been a relative source of strength during the economic recovery. Mon, 22 Feb 2010 09:00:07 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14473 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14472 Mon, 22 Feb 2010 08:58:32 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14472 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14471 Mon, 22 Feb 2010 08:57:28 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14471 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14470 In last week's update we noted the absence of attractive ETFs.  This week the model has turned even more bearish.This is a good opportunity to discuss some of the characteristics of our model.  The immediate recommendations are for short selling -- the inverse ETFs.  As you will see, this is a tricky subject.Background Mon, 22 Feb 2010 08:56:24 -0500 ETFs Technical Analysis Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14470 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14469 It is a real toss-up as to which generates more bizarre comment in the international press: Beijing's long-feared dumping of US Treasuries, or the use and value of the PBoC's central bank reserves.  The revelation last week that Chinese holdings of US Treasury obligations fell in December by $34.2 billion, to $755.4 billion, generated a frisson of fear and excitement, leading one prominent newspaper to worry that "If there is one thing that gets investors twitchy, it is the fear that China is losing its appetite for US government bonds." Mon, 22 Feb 2010 08:52:44 -0500 Asia Economy Politics Michael Pettishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14469 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14468 Mon, 22 Feb 2010 08:36:08 -0500 Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14468 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14467 Welcome to our second Weekly Market Digest. We will be covering the action for the week ending Friday, February 19th. First, a bit of house keeping to take care of. Mon, 22 Feb 2010 08:32:51 -0500 Technical Analysis The Market Drew Birenbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14467 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14466    THE GBPUSD came under pressure early in the Far East session, reaching a low of 1.5430.  The price rebounded quickly from the move but has been in a narrow high to low range since that time.  The high has reached 1.5503. The low 1.5447 (on 3 separate hourly closes).  The 56 pip range should be extended today.  The price is looking to extend higher in early NY trade. Mon, 22 Feb 2010 08:29:20 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14466 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14465 In the hierarchy of investment decisions, asset allocation is at or near the top of the list of variables that are strategically relevant for diversified portfolios. There are a number of studies telling us so, starting with the influential Brinson study from 1986-"Determinants of Portfolio Performance"-and its 1991 update. The basic message: asset allocation matters. Mon, 22 Feb 2010 08:27:03 -0500 Economy The Market Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14465 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14464 Treasury bond yields continue to move higher. The 3o year rates now stands at 4.75% at the high for June 2009 and August 2008. The creep higher is in anticipation of the Fed raising the overnight Fed funds rate later this year. The move last night in the discount rate was the first in a long series of actions to be taken by the Fed to unwind the stimulus to keep banks liquid and healing from the crisis. Taking it back will be a delicate process, but rates will move higher in time. Fri, 19 Feb 2010 05:09:45 -0500 Bonds ETFs Farrish Files Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14464 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14463 This week was options expiration. Now you know why we got this ramp up. Because the bulk of the masses felt we were going nowhere but down and when the masses think one thing the market always does the opposite. This happens all the time. Fri, 19 Feb 2010 04:57:26 -0500 Technical Analysis David Grandeyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14463 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14460 The New York Times ran a front-page story this week called "Party Gridlock in Washington Feeds New Fear of a Debt Crisis." As usual, they got it wrong. Instead, the headline should have read, "After Scott Brown's Astonishing Senate Win in Massachusetts, New Political Gridlock in Washington Could Spell the End of the Liberal Crack-Up We Have Witnessed over the Past Year." Fri, 19 Feb 2010 04:48:45 -0500 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14460 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14459 Fri, 19 Feb 2010 04:47:29 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14459 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14458 Fri, 19 Feb 2010 03:14:18 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14458 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14457 The volatility in the stock market rattles your nerves. And who can blame you… when the possibility of 50% price declines may be un-”bear”-able. Fri, 19 Feb 2010 02:44:55 -0500 Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14457 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14456 President Obama announced a Commission to attack the deficit problem.  Few will be excited by this move, and I agree. Fri, 19 Feb 2010 02:22:49 -0500 Economy Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14456 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14455 I wanted to share two recent, clear examples of how to project a final price target to play for from a symmetrical triangle pattern formation. First, let's start with gold prices daily in late 2009: Here is how most chartists project price targets from triangle patterns. Fri, 19 Feb 2010 01:50:45 -0500 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14455 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14454 So the Federal Reserve announced yesterday this discount hike to open up a penalty against the overnight fed funds rate. But you know what? No one is really borrowing from the discount window anyway. So while this news is making headlines, it's really not a huge policy change. Fri, 19 Feb 2010 12:48:24 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14454 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14450 Fri, 19 Feb 2010 12:40:36 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14450 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14449 Trading volume, the number of shares changing hands in a given day, offers a valuable window into the ethereal realm of prevailing sentiment.  When traders are complacent and bored, volume dwindles.  Few get excited about trading lethargic stocks.  But when emotions run high, volume often spikes dramatically.  This is the case whether traders are suffering from excessive greed or fear.  Volume surges when traders get excited, for any reason, and want to trade more. Fri, 19 Feb 2010 12:39:08 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Adam Hamiltonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14449 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14446 The ETF industry has expanded rapidly in recent years, with hundreds of new product launches covering various regions, sectors, and investment strategies. The surge in ETF product offerings-there are now nearly 1,000 exchange-traded products in our ETF screener-has sparked some speculation that the industry has reached a point of saturation-or perhaps has long since blown through that point. Fri, 19 Feb 2010 12:33:47 -0500 Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14446 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14444 Headline inflation last month rose a modest 0.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That's been the pace each and every month since last September. Over the past year, inflation was a mild 2.6%. On the surface, it's all quite humdrum. But wait-what's this? There's an outlier in the core inflation trend for January: CPI less food and energy slipped by 0.1%. Fri, 19 Feb 2010 12:02:38 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14444 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14443 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12-months): 2.3%In contrast to the yearly trend in producer prices, U.S. consumer prices rose at a slightly lower rate in January. Over the 12 months ending in January, the Consumer Price Index increased at a 2.6 percent rate, a tenth of a percent lower than the rate booked in December. Wholesale prices, measured by the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods, stepped up by a tenth of a percent, at 4.6 percent rate.Twelve-Month Inflation Rates Fri, 19 Feb 2010 11:47:13 -0500 Currencies Economy Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14443 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14442 Fri, 19 Feb 2010 11:33:40 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14442 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14441 Fri, 19 Feb 2010 10:54:32 -0500 Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14441 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14440 Fri, 19 Feb 2010 09:37:45 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14440 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14439 Fri, 19 Feb 2010 09:14:57 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14439 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14438    The USDCAD has come down after the data and is testing the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.0491 level.  On the topside look for resistance at the 200 hour MA.  That level held earlier today and came off. The current level comes in at the 1.0529 level. A break above will next target the 1.0542 level and then 1.0588.   Fri, 19 Feb 2010 09:13:40 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14438 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14437 The S&P 500 cracked the key 1,100 resistance level, and it was met as expected with a surge of "popped stops" as bears threw in the towel - which serves as another example of "what happens when key resistance is broken?" However, we're not seeing the classic signs of strength that accompany strong price breakouts... but does that need to be the case in the current altered financial landscape? Do old rules still apply?  Let's take a look. S&P 500 30-min:   Fri, 19 Feb 2010 09:12:02 -0500 Technical Analysis The Market Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14437 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14434 Fri, 19 Feb 2010 08:47:19 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14434 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14432 David Brown Thu, 18 Feb 2010 08:17:51 -0500 Premium Newsletter Jane Sonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14432 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14431 Thu, 18 Feb 2010 05:21:42 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14431 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14430 Commodity futures have always provided speculators opportunities for substantial profit. That's, of course, the lure of this risk transference market. By shouldering the price risk that commercial users and producers wish to shed, speculators get a shot at making leveraged gains, if they can correctly forecast price movements. Thu, 18 Feb 2010 05:18:00 -0500 Commodities Sector ETFs Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14430 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14429 Intra-day, top-to-bottom, the S&P 500 lost roughly -9.2%. On a closing basis, it fell a little bit less... -8.2%. Does this mean that the correction is over? Are we not going to dip below the official 10% correction level here in the U.S. - a close below S&P 1035? With the third week in February showing a decided bullish bias, albeit on low volume, a number of financial professionals are speaking out: Thu, 18 Feb 2010 05:09:08 -0500 Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14429 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14421 On February 17th, Michael Pento appeared on CNBC's The Kudlow Report to discuss whether the lack of free market populism is leading to debt.Click here to learn more about The Kudlow Report. Thu, 18 Feb 2010 04:36:16 -0500 Home Page Video Editorial Staffhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14421 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14420 I've been very busy the last few days going on Kudlow's show last night and "Street Signs" this morning. Linked below are the two spots if you care to view. Larry's show was particularly interesting. Thu, 18 Feb 2010 04:01:29 -0500 Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14420 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14418 It's still touch and go with weekly jobless claims, and it probably will be for some time. We're in a transition phase, or so it seems. The question is what will be the outcome? As we write, we're inclined to think the odds are evenly split between a resumption in the near future of the general decline that's been in force vs. a change for the worse. Thu, 18 Feb 2010 02:27:27 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14418 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14417 The sideways trade is contrary to cumulative tick, which continues to move higher.  That said, other internals are muted at best.  The market remains short-term overbought and it seems resistance will initially be strong between SPY $110.50-111.00, just under the fifty-day moving average. Thu, 18 Feb 2010 01:34:54 -0500 Traders' Talk SPY Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14417 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14416 At long last I have found my new hero. He is rotund and profound, graced with a hint of "Sopranos" and a hefty dose of obstinate common sense.He is Chris Christie, the newly elected governor of New Jersey, and this morning on CNBC's "Squawkbox" he his first national TV appearance since his Obama-smiting election-and Christie crushed it. Thu, 18 Feb 2010 01:31:13 -0500 Politics Dennis Knealehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14416 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14415 Thu, 18 Feb 2010 01:25:39 -0500 Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14415 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14414 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.2%A .333 batting average may be top-drawer performance in baseball, but it's not so hot when prognosticating petroleum inventories. Ahead of the holiday-delayed government inventory report, the American Petroleum Institute released its estimates for crude oil, gasoline and distillate fuel supplies. When the government numbers were released this morning, only one of three API forecasts were on target. Thu, 18 Feb 2010 01:07:13 -0500 Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14414 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14412 Right now the market is talking to us. We hope you are listening because we are.One look at the indexes show a lot of talking going on right now in the form of our indicators flashing "In the Zone" or at the least be aware. This is how the market talks to us. First up the 20 day one-minute time frequency chart that covers the whole run off the recent lows. Thu, 18 Feb 2010 11:44:38 -0500 Technical Analysis David Grandeyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14412 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14405 Some e-mails I have received about the recent blogs would suggest I am not explaining myself clearly.  So, let me state it in a one-line comment: I believe that the best decisions are the ones that combine head and heart i.e. reason and intuition (and intuition signals its intent through our feelings). Hence I totally disagree comments such as these (from a S$3000.00 course): "Know always that a Successful Trader is a Rational Trader. One who controls emotions to the point of being void of feelings". Thu, 18 Feb 2010 11:18:33 -0500 Education Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14405 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14404 The New York Times ran a front-page story yesterday called "Party Gridlock in Washington Feeds New Fear of a Debt Crisis." I would've preferred a different title. In the aftermath of Scott Brown's Senate win in Massachusetts, the new political gridlock in Washington could spell the end of the liberal crack-up that we have witnessed over the past year. Thu, 18 Feb 2010 11:08:26 -0500 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14404 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14403 As the famous final line of "Some Like It Hot" goes: nobody's perfect. That goes for exchange traded funds (ETFs), too. But the advantages of ETFs - intraday liquidity, transparency, lower fees - far outweigh their risks. And the risks they do have can be mitigated with some effort on the part of the investor: Thu, 18 Feb 2010 10:33:11 -0500 Education ETFs Tom Lydonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14403 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14402 ETF Spotlight 02/17/2010 Thu, 18 Feb 2010 09:17:42 -0500 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14402 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14401 Thu, 18 Feb 2010 09:13:25 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14401 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14400 Thu, 18 Feb 2010 09:12:32 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14400 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14399 Thu, 18 Feb 2010 09:11:33 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14399 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14398 When investors consider risk, it has traditionally meant downside losses.  The idea of profiting from a declining market, while commonplace for professionals, is relatively new to the average investor.  When trying to time the market by exiting or by buying an inverse ETF, the concept of risk has changed.You must now ask:  What is my upside risk? Thu, 18 Feb 2010 09:10:37 -0500 Education Speciality ETFs Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14398 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14397 Thu, 18 Feb 2010 09:08:09 -0500 Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14397 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14396 Initial Claims rise to 473 from 442 revised.  The Continuing Claims remain unchanged on the week at 4563 but higher than expectations. PPI came in at 1.4% as food and energy lead to the gain. Ex food and energy, however, the prices rose by 0.3%.  Although much lower than the headline, it was still higher than expectations.  The YoY PPI ex Food and Energy is up only 1.0%. Thu, 18 Feb 2010 08:53:26 -0500 Currencies Economy Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14396 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14395 Wed, 17 Feb 2010 04:53:09 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14395 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14394 When it comes to ETFs, I always feel it is important to return to the basics. Specifically, why on earth should an investor choose an exchange-traded fund over an individual security or a mutual fund? The primary reasons include (in no particular order): (1) tax-efficiency, (2) trade-ability, (3) transparency, (4) diversification, and  (5) low cost structure. There are additional reasons... to be sure. Yet when a newfangled ETF fails to meet these 5 criteria, then you may not want to invest in that ETF at all. Wed, 17 Feb 2010 04:42:03 -0500 Emerging Markets International ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14394 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14393 There's no shortage of economic data in the 21st century. Perspective, however, isn't always easy to come by. The digital age is a wonder for dispensing statistics, but the central challenge of digesting the endless reports, surveys, numbers and trends requires assistance. Fortunately, there are productive tools available for mining intelligence from the river of numerical supply. Here are few worth considering in the struggle to figure what's really going on with the business cycle. Wed, 17 Feb 2010 03:40:32 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14393 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14391 Wed, 17 Feb 2010 03:02:34 -0500 Technical Analysis Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14391 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14390 Wed, 17 Feb 2010 02:45:02 -0500 Technical Analysis Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14390 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14389 I was on CNCB last night talking about whether the euro’s gains are sustainable: Wed, 17 Feb 2010 02:25:36 -0500 Currencies Europe Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14389 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14388 Good cultures balance short and long-term goals.  Focusing too much on the long-term can lead to overinvestment, and problems like Japan still faces.  Focusing on the short-run can lead governments and companies to focus on manipulating budget and earnings numbers to fulfill their own selfish ends. At present, we have no surplus of long-termism, but a surfeit of short-termism.    Many economic players have decided that it is in their interest to play for time  - make things look good in the short run, and maybe a magical fix will appear for long run problems. Wed, 17 Feb 2010 02:16:03 -0500 Currencies Economy Emerging Markets Europe David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14388 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14387 Wed, 17 Feb 2010 12:31:03 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14387 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14386 A Pete Steidlmayer saying:"Most traders want to operate at 120% effectiveness; the reality is we need be satisfied with a consistent 60%." Wed, 17 Feb 2010 12:15:27 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14386 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14385 Remember that gold/stock correlation illustrated in this week's feature "Gold And Stocks Riding The Same Bus"? Gold and the domestic equity market have become even tighter traveling buddies this week as the rolling 30-day correlation of COMEX spot settlements to the S&P 500 Composite reached two consecutive record highs. At Tuesday's close, the coefficient stood at a whopping 81 percent. Wed, 17 Feb 2010 12:08:56 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14385 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14384 With the US Dollar Index completing its daily Bull Flag, the Euro completed an opposite bear flag.  Both currency indexes are at key inflection points, so let's take a quick look at the key level to watch now in the Euro Index. Euro Index ($XEU) Daily: Wed, 17 Feb 2010 12:00:20 -0500 Europe Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14384 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14383 About a week ago, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was hitting 7-month highs. And it had seriously threatened to move higher. Six trading sessions later, it has pulled back 1.25%. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is down 1.25%? What difference could that make! Well... it's not the size of the move; rather, it is the motion of the trading ocean. Wed, 17 Feb 2010 11:56:32 -0500 Commodities International ETFs Sector ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14383 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14382 Friends, it may come as a shock, but there is a war being waged under our very noses. This war is not fought with guns, tanks, or bombs; its casualties are hardly noticeable. In fact, many haven't even been born yet.The war being fought this very day is an economic war. Its trenches are stock exchanges and trading pits around the world. Its weapons, from foreign exchange and repurchase agreements to credit default swaps and collateralized debt obligations, are being deployed by troops, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase among them, worldwide. Thu, 18 Feb 2010 11:33:39 -0500 Economy Personal Finance Politics The Market Dock David Treecehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14382 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14381 Money and politics is about my favorite topic (apart from spiritual faith, of course). And we had plenty of both in the last day or two.  Wed, 17 Feb 2010 11:43:50 -0500 Technical Analysis Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14381 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14380 Wed, 17 Feb 2010 09:05:00 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14380 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14379 Wed, 17 Feb 2010 08:42:57 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14379 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14378 Tuesday was a 90% Up Volume day on the NYSE. At the same time volume declined from Friday's levels and was below normal. It's rare to see volume decline on a day when breadth is so overwhelmingly positive - especially when the market is in a long-term uptrend. Going back to 1970 I was only able to identify 6 other instances. Wed, 17 Feb 2010 08:41:20 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14378 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14376 Tue, 16 Feb 2010 06:57:22 -0500 Technical Analysis David Brownhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14376 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14371 Hyman Minsky is a popular guy these days. An economist who studied under Joseph Schumpeter, Minsky has become the dismal scientist of choice in the wake of the Great Recession as the man who told us so. Tue, 16 Feb 2010 06:28:31 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14371 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14370 Tue, 16 Feb 2010 06:21:21 -0500 Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14370 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14369 We wanted confirmation before taking a stance in crude and with prices convincingly higher today we are thinking the recent shake out may be all the bears get. Today's move carried prices back above the 200 day moving average and at the highs we traded to the 40 day moving average. As long as April can hold above $76 on a closing basis we suggest light long exposure via futures in April or call spreads in June. We've yet to make a move for clients but the June $80/85 is a spread we may be interested in; today the price is $2000...stay tuned. Tue, 16 Feb 2010 05:02:16 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14369 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14368 It's closing in on 3 months since the U.S. dollar hit a multi-year bottom. At that time, the media's focus on gold's success (and the dollar's demise) bordered on incessant; the coverage even contributed to a bit of panic buying of the yellow metal and panic selling of the "world's currency." Then came sovereign debt concerns in the Middle East. Not long after, the world discovered that a handful of European nations were struggling with their debt obligations as well. Tue, 16 Feb 2010 03:46:55 -0500 International ETFs Sector ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14368 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14367 If anyone tells you there is such a thing as a stock market, laugh in their face. It is just the JPY/EUR pair, whose every single tick pushes the various computer signals to buy buy buy (and pray to whatever binary gods are in vogue that there isn't a volume spike, else it becomes sell sell sell). Don't buy it? Credit is unchanged - IG and HY are basically flat, while FINLs are wider on the day. Tue, 16 Feb 2010 01:56:42 -0500 Asia Currencies Europe Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14367 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14366 I wanted to do a quick update showing the key resistance level at 1,100 that either will hold as an overhead sell signal, or break as buyers continue pushing prices higher, triggering a "popped stops" rally if they can move the index above 1,100. Let's see this on two quick daily charts: We see that price bounced off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement taken from the July 2009 low to the January 2010 high, forming a long lower shadow hammer/doji candle. Tue, 16 Feb 2010 01:49:26 -0500 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14366 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14365 Tue, 16 Feb 2010 01:48:22 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14365 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14364 Real-Time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.1% There are a lot of disappointed investors wondering why silver hasn't done a better job catching up to gold. You can see their predicament in a chart plotting silver's relative strength. Think of it as a gold/silver ratio turned upside down Silver Relative Strength Vs. Gold Tue, 16 Feb 2010 01:14:12 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14364 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14363 Tue, 16 Feb 2010 12:57:54 -0500 Bonds Broad Market ETFs Crude Emerging Markets International ETFs Nat Gas Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14363 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14362 Tue, 16 Feb 2010 12:54:03 -0500 Currencies Economy Europe Housing Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14362 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14361 Tue, 16 Feb 2010 11:16:00 -0500 Economy Steve Savillehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14361 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14359 Tue, 16 Feb 2010 10:47:29 -0500 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14359 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14358 Tue, 16 Feb 2010 09:08:08 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14358 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14357 Tue, 16 Feb 2010 08:59:37 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14357 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14356 Tue, 16 Feb 2010 08:58:55 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14356 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14355 Tue, 16 Feb 2010 08:56:29 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14355 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14354 As I mentioned in my Upcoming Changes article last week, I will no longer be authoring the daily market analysis column. Instead, I will be posting a once weekly update discussing longer term market trends. I will introduce a few new concepts in these posts including cycle analysis, Dow Theory, and simple trend following trading systems. As always folks, feel free to post any comments or questions using the form below. Tue, 16 Feb 2010 08:48:20 -0500 Technical Analysis The Market Drew Birenbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14354 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14353 Sometimes a picture does it best.  If you can identify the actor in the scene below, you'll have a simple summary of current market opportunities. Tue, 16 Feb 2010 08:36:45 -0500 Economy Financials Technical Analysis Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14353 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14352 With all eyes seemingly focused on Europe last week, it seems as if investors largely ignored the new economic data coming out of the United States. I consider the most important of the new pieces of economic data to be the January retail sales report, which showed retail sales increasing 0.5% on a month-over-month basis (consensus estimate +0.3%) and 4.7% on a year-over-year basis. Tue, 16 Feb 2010 02:30:36 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14352 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14351 For the week, the S&P 500 managed to eek out a gain of .9% but boy oh boy you sure wouldn't have thought that. 3 out of the last 4 days, the S&P 500 has had 20 point mood swings with the Dow showing 150 point plus mood swings with the OTC being the stronger of the two but none the less net nowhere for 3 weeks. Over the last few weeks you've heard us talk about how the OTC leads and sure enough one look at the charts below shows that of the OTC leading relative to the S&P 500 and Dow.   Sun, 14 Feb 2010 11:26:36 -0500 Technical Analysis David Grandeyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14351 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14350 Mon, 15 Feb 2010 09:23:47 -0500 Education Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14350 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14349 I've said this before in different ways, but I will say it once more, "Governments are smaller than markets; markets are smaller than cultures."  The reasoning is simple: Mon, 15 Feb 2010 01:11:56 -0500 Economy Emerging Markets Europe Politics David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14349 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14348 Mon, 15 Feb 2010 01:07:03 -0500 Asia Aussie/NZ Economy Europe Technical Analysis Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14348 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14347 If you find the current market action frightening, you are not alone.  There is a bull market in disaster predictions, with a chorus of pundits predicting "another 2008."  Sentiment indicators show increasing fear.  Improvement in corporate earnings is seen as more evidence that something is wrong.  After all, a market that cannot rally on good news is showing weakness.The chart of the S&P 500 from the last year makes the case for a market that moved too far, too fast.  Some see a new bearish leg -- not a correction but a major move to the old lows. Mon, 15 Feb 2010 01:02:19 -0500 Bonds Earnings Economy Technical Analysis Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14347 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14346 Mon, 15 Feb 2010 12:31:58 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14346 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14345 I got back three days ago from my trip to the US and am still sludging through my jet-lag, but there are two quick takeaways from the trip I should mention.  First, my Washington meetings convinced me (no big surprise here) that, just as it is doing in Europe, the issue of trade is getting more political attention than ever, and the adverse employment impact of the US trade deficit is an issue that will not easily subside.  I did not leave Washington feeling that my worries about a rise in trade tensions were in any way exaggerated. Mon, 15 Feb 2010 12:48:56 -0500 Asia Economy Michael Pettishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14345 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14344 By Ron Rutheford, Sabrient Corporate Macroeconomist Sun, 14 Feb 2010 01:30:53 -0500 Economy Housing Scott Martindalehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14344 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14343 There are converging trendlines evident on the daily chart of gold, and I thought that structure would be worth a closer look. Here is a quick ‘chart view' of Gold's daily ‘triangle:' Starting with the July lows and connecting those in August and February, we see the lower trendline as drawn, which ends at the $1,070 level. Sun, 14 Feb 2010 01:22:55 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14343 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14342 I wanted to create a stable archive of the "Best Posts of 2009″ from an educational and reference perspective, and without further delay, here are the selected best posts from Afraid to Trade of 2009! This will be the first of a series of mini-archives which will focus on trading strategies and research. Sun, 14 Feb 2010 01:14:42 -0500 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14342 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14341 Join Jim as he takes a look at the market sector by sector for the leaders, losers and limpers which are uptrends, downtrends and consolidation that present opportunities in the market. Sat, 13 Feb 2010 08:29:11 -0500 ETF podcasts Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14341 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14339 Fri, 12 Feb 2010 06:47:24 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14339 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14338 The disconnect between Washington and the rest of the country has never been greater. Why can't the political class in D.C. produce a fiscal product that voters, taxpayers, and investors are willing to consume? Fri, 12 Feb 2010 06:42:54 -0500 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14338 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14337 Fri, 12 Feb 2010 05:06:59 -0500 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14337 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14336 In January, ETF fund flows depicted a number of seemingly incongruous events. Investors liked foreign stocks, but hated U.S. stocks. They distanced themselves from the risks of the financial sector, while they embraced the risks of energy and natural resources industries. Meanwhile, foreign currencies became outcasts, yet most forms of U.S. bonds received billions of new assets. Perhaps ETF investors are being drawn to foreign equities because of the super-sized gains achieved in 2009. Yet that wouldn't explain the enormous inflow into bond funds. Fri, 12 Feb 2010 03:36:00 -0500 International ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14336 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14335 Fri, 12 Feb 2010 01:57:03 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14335 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14334 Fri, 12 Feb 2010 01:17:50 -0500 Bonds Broad Market ETFs Precious Metals Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14334 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14333 Thank you China!  恭喜发财 /88/ 新年快乐  Just as last night provided an opportunity to take a short trade, so too did nice support at SPY S1 with a falling VIX provide a long power bounce well back into yesterday's range. Fri, 12 Feb 2010 01:09:53 -0500 Traders' Talk SPY Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14333 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14332 In recent commentary, I suggested that the price movement of BRIC ETFs determine the price movement of developed market ETFs... not the other way around. Whereas the media have harped on Greece, I have steadfastly maintained that China's rate hikes, reserve increases and lending restrictions were the true catalyst(s) for stock asset correction. Fri, 12 Feb 2010 01:07:40 -0500 Asia Emerging Markets International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14332 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14331 If you feel like the market is in Déjà Vu mode intraday, rest assured that you are picking up on a repeating pattern so far over the last three trading days, particularly for intraday traders. The script is as follows: Weak open, rally into EMA resistance, ‘fake' down-move, burst above resistance into new intraday highs, finally a pull back into the close. And... Action! Fri, 12 Feb 2010 01:07:10 -0500 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14331 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14330 Debt levels in an economy matter.  They matter a lot.  An economy that is financed primarily by debt can be like a chain of dominoes.  If one fixed claim fails, and it is large enough, many other fixed claims that rely on the first claim could fail as well, triggering a chain of failures.  This is a reason why a fiat-money credit-based economy must limit leverage particularly in financial institutions. Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:46:42 -0500 Bonds Economy David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14330 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14329 Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:40:51 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14329 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14328 In a recent issue of Barron's addressed the question of silver possibly having another outperformance in the coming year.  The article asks, "Will the poor man's gold shine in 2010?"  The opinion piece ("Gold Isn't All That Glitters," by Allen Sykora) drew attention to the other white metals, platinum and palladium, and made a case for a strong recovery in global demand for these metals along with silver in the year ahead.  Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:39:43 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Clif Drokehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14328 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14325 Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:25:26 -0500 Asia Currencies Technical Analysis Adam Hamiltonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14325 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14323 A couple of days ago I posed the question, Are You Watching Greece? While I am certain that most investors are doing their best to keep on top of the latest news swirling around Greece and the European Union, the smaller question I addressed was which security or indicator would give a good glimpse into the status of the Greek problem. Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:21:22 -0500 Asia Europe Housing Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14323 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14319 In our article on Feb. 9 entitled "The Market Is Following A Script You Can Profit From" we decided to do is a more detailed follow up to that article with a few more examples from the past in order to cement it in your brain.In the event the opportunity rears its head you'll be prepared in advance and won't be one of those people who is a deer in the headlights or the ostrich who sees the lion coming and sticks it's head in the sand thinking that is going to help, you'll have the tools to be able to seize the moment and take action. Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:14:48 -0500 Technical Analysis David Grandeyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14319 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14318 Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:13:13 -0500 Broad Market ETFs International ETFs New ETFs Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14318 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14317 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.0% Despite Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's jawboning about the central bank's plans to sop up excess liquidity in the banking system, this week's market action isn't a likely catalyst for tightening. Declines in Treasury and commodity prices likely slipped the Fed's gearshift into neutral.Key inflation markers for the week ending Thursday:  Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:10:35 -0500 Economy Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14317 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14312 With the markets rising more than 1% on higher volume exactly 4 days after a potential bottom, Thursday can be labeled a Follow-Through Day (FTD). As I mentioned last night I did an extensive study of FTD's on the blog back in 2008. A summary page with links may be found here:http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/07/follow-through-days-quantified.html Fri, 12 Feb 2010 10:54:28 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14312 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14311 Fri, 12 Feb 2010 10:45:43 -0500 Asia Aussie/NZ Currencies Economy Europe Technical Analysis Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14311 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14310 Fri, 12 Feb 2010 09:27:05 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14310 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14309    Fri, 12 Feb 2010 08:27:52 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14309 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14308 I was struck by a recent article on "overconfidence" and how it hampers investment returns.  It is persuasive and suggests several different interesting themes.A Brief DigressionBefore turning to this theme, I would like to hit a few highlights.Thanks to Zack Miller, who kindly included me on his Super Bowl team of investment bloggers.  It is a clever idea and he has some great choices. Fri, 12 Feb 2010 08:25:50 -0500 Economy Education The Market Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14308 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14307 Fri, 12 Feb 2010 02:33:39 -0500 Premium Newsletter Jane Sonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14307 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14306 Today's low volume once again brought about an aberrant market, in which a gust of buying late in the morning even as the euro was probing new lows, took the market to a new churn level, which resulted in a close at 2 standard deviations above the VWAP over the past two days. The gap can be seen on the accompanying chart. Should VWAPs reversion algos appear, the SPY will likely retrace the gain back to the computer model favored 1067 level. Thu, 11 Feb 2010 06:42:21 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk SPY Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14306 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14305 When Direxion launched the first batch of triple ETFs back in November 2008, I may have been the first person to openly champion them, even going way out on a limb with Prediction: Direxion Triple ETFs Will Revolutionize Day Trading. Thu, 11 Feb 2010 05:52:23 -0500 Broad Market ETFs Speciality ETFs Technical Analysis Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14305 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14303 Thu, 11 Feb 2010 03:58:12 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14303 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14302 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 1.9% Fed chairman Ben Bernanke started talking up the central bank's plan for withdrawing its accommodation Wednesday. Most telling, amid the prognostications of hikes in interest paid on reserves and open market operations designed to mop up cash, Bernanke essentially demoted the Fed funds rate as the tool of choice for tinkering with the nation's money supply. Thu, 11 Feb 2010 03:45:49 -0500 Economy Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14302 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14300 One of the more difficult concepts for investors to comprehend is "true diversification." Specifically, when you've truly diversified the investments in your portfolio, then those individual investments do not show strong relationships to one another. For example, a typical investor might believe that he/she is reasonably well-diversified with the following 5 ETFs: Thu, 11 Feb 2010 03:01:54 -0500 Broad Market ETFs International ETFs Speciality ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14300 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14299 On February 10th, Tom Lydon appeared on CNBC's Fast Money to discuss why investors should use the dollar to play the weak Euro.  Thu, 11 Feb 2010 03:01:12 -0500 ETF Videos Home Page Video Editorial Staffhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14299 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14298 We have us a classic Mexican standoff over in Europe. Thu, 11 Feb 2010 02:36:49 -0500 Economy Philip Davishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14298 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14290 For those who follow the Sector Rotation Model, or at least look at Sector Returns to determine a sector's relative performance to the S&P 500, you might have noticed something strange with Utilities recently. However, even if you're not at all interested in the sector that is often considered the most 'boring' of the nine (with technology being the most exciting), it's still worth looking at the Sector Performance year-to-date numbers to see what that says about the broader market trend. Let's see the current chart. Thu, 11 Feb 2010 02:24:02 -0500 Technical Analysis Technician's Edge Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14290 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14286 Thu, 11 Feb 2010 02:09:06 -0500 Bonds Technical Analysis Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14286 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14285 I'd like to take a brief moment to discuss Fed head Ben Bernanke's recently released monetary-exit testimony. Here's an initial question: How in the world is Bernanke going to reduce the Fed's swollen balance sheet and ultra-easy zero-interest-rate monetary explosion? How is he going to do it? Thu, 11 Feb 2010 01:51:36 -0500 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14285 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14284 Thu, 11 Feb 2010 01:06:27 -0500 Broad Market ETFs Education International ETFs New ETFs Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14284 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14283 Let's step inside the recent retracement rally and view the current state of the three key "Market Internals" and what clues those internals are revealing. SP500 Market Internal Glance: (Click on image for full-size view) Thu, 11 Feb 2010 01:04:26 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14283 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14282 Thu, 11 Feb 2010 12:49:53 -0500 Bonds Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14282 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14281 This morning's update on initial jobless claims is a timely bit of good news. In fact, the markets probably couldn't wait another week for this. For starters, the decline of 43,000 in new filings for jobless benefits last week is the biggest weekly drop since last summer. Even better, this fall comes at time of heightened anxiety for this data series and so the latest turn for the better is welcome for all the usual reasons, and more. Thu, 11 Feb 2010 12:32:33 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14281 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14280 Are you looking at more than one day's worth of data? Thu, 11 Feb 2010 12:28:30 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14280 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14279 Thu, 11 Feb 2010 12:21:46 -0500 Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14279 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14278 Ever hopped a bus in a strange city and wondered if the driver were taking you farther away from your intended destination rather than toward it? This phenomenon is actually fairly common. If you look at the route maps, you'll find a lot of backtracking along some local routes. Ultimately, you get to your destination, but sometimes, you end up taking some scenic detours along the way. Thu, 11 Feb 2010 12:07:59 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14278 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14277 Once before I took part in a trading competition, the FXFutures.com. On that occasion, I played the role of position-sizing manager for A Wang. Trading in a competition is very different from trading for a living. The strategy is to gain maximum return (at least 50% and you'll probably need around 200% to guarantee a win) in a short time.In addition, the trader has to  strike a balance between not enough capital and too much because usually  the winner is the one with the greatest percentage return on capital. So when Ana decided she needed an assist, I lent a hand. Thu, 11 Feb 2010 11:28:29 -0500 Traders' Talk Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14277 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14276 China is eating its own cooking. The emerging economy has been snapping up raw materials left and right, but now it's moving up to the next level: ETFs, some of which concern those same materials. [More on Asia's Resilience.] Thu, 11 Feb 2010 11:07:34 -0500 ETFs Tom Lydonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14276 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14275 Thu, 11 Feb 2010 08:36:11 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14275 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14274    The GBP/USD is testing the 100 hour moving average at the 1.5626 level after overnight testing the floor for the 8th time in the last 4 trading days.  The floor has set itself at the 1.5555 area. The low for the week extended to Monday at 1.5533.  Both areas need to be breached to extend downside pressure.  Thu, 11 Feb 2010 08:34:13 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14274 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14273 Thu, 11 Feb 2010 08:31:47 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14273 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14272 I always enjoy showing clear examples of trading concepts such as divergences, and today gave two solid examples of the dual Momentum and TICK divergences preceding intraday price reversals. In fact, the absolute low and high of the session was formed with such a dual divergence. Let's take a look at this important concept: Thu, 11 Feb 2010 08:30:02 -0500 Technical Analysis The Market Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14272 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14271 Jason Zweig's latest investing column in The Wall Street Journal is disturbing, but not necessarily for the reasons he outlines. Thu, 11 Feb 2010 08:27:48 -0500 Education The Market Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14271 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14270 Thu, 11 Feb 2010 02:04:05 -0500 Economy Europe Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14270 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14269 Investors eventually learn not to "fight the Fed."  The Fed has more power and a lot more money than you do.It is popular in the investment punditry to criticize the Fed, blame the institution and the members for all problems, and claim that nearly anyone could do a better job than the incumbents.  It is great fun in the Will Rogers tradition, and very popular in the blogosphere.  The audience is heavily skewed toward Tea Parties. Thu, 11 Feb 2010 01:23:19 -0500 Earnings Economy Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14269 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14268 Like any stock index, from time to time the S&P 500 index seems to hand pick a number and make it an important support and resistance level. Sometimes these lines in the sand are ephemeral and sometimes they persist for extended periods. Take SPX 1070, for instance. Back in October 2009, SPX 1070 was the exact midpoint in the SPX trading range I talked about in Strangle Pong and two subsequent posts (see links below.) Thu, 11 Feb 2010 01:36:58 -0500 Technical Analysis SPX Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14268 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14267 The snow didn't stop Ben. Blizzard or not, there were no stormy surprses in Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony today in Congress. Yes, the central bank was contemplating an exit strategy, but nothing was imminent. Wed, 10 Feb 2010 06:59:59 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14267 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14266 Wed, 10 Feb 2010 06:56:00 -0500 Emerging Markets International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14266 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14265 Wed, 10 Feb 2010 05:45:33 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14265 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14264 There's been a few posts recently connecting the Dow Jones index of 1929/1930 (crash and recovery) to that of today, and I wanted to share a link to the most recent video update by Adam Hewison who takes it one step farther than I have in my update posts on the comparison. Entitled "Dow 1929 = Dow 2010," Adam posts a quick six-minute video showing the 1929 crash then 50% retracement... and what happened after the rally. Wed, 10 Feb 2010 05:35:55 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14264 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14263 Currency markets completed a volatile day after Ben Bernanke indicated that discount rates could rise faster than expected. The Fed chairman's comments immediately pushed the dollar higher. However, much of his influence faded by afternoon trading. Commodity currencies weathered the storm relatively well with slight declines in the aussie and kiwi and significant strength in the loonie. However, the biggest loser of the day is by far the British Pound on signs that the BoE might consider adding to asset purchases after all. Bernanke Spells it out Wed, 10 Feb 2010 05:26:50 -0500 Asia Aussie/NZ Canada Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14263 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14262 The push lower in the broad markets starting in January was led by the semiconductor sector ETF (NYSE: IGW). The comments from analyst concerning peak earnings were the catalyst to the downside. That was long ago (four weeks) and many other problems have surfaced since. However, a technical look at the chart below shows a potential bottom developing on the chart. I have outlined what could be a double bottom and potential move higher. Wed, 10 Feb 2010 04:52:46 -0500 ETFs Farrish Files Semiconductors Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14262 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14261 With the market having pulled back since leveling off and topping out in January, we believe that was is now developing is the beginning of a trading range. Last month when the market made a top, after coming off the March bottom, it did so approximately halfway between the 2002 market bottom and the all-time high in 2007, which is technically significant. Wed, 10 Feb 2010 02:25:37 -0500 Economy Dock David Treecehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14261 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14259 Wed, 10 Feb 2010 01:43:31 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14259 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14258 The credit crisis may not be over for Greece. It may not be over for Dubai. In fact, there's always the possibility that another shoe will drop. Yet, ever since the big banks cemented their collective viability with a "too-big-to-fail" designation, preferred financial stock assets have been remarkably consistent. For example, over the last 7 months, PowerShares Financial Preferred (NYSE: PGF) has been one of the most steady, yield-producing ETFs in existence. Wed, 10 Feb 2010 01:35:07 -0500 Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14258 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14257 Wed, 10 Feb 2010 01:29:06 -0500 Economy Europe Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14257 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14256 Trader talk from Art Cashin, via UBS Fin Services Wed, 10 Feb 2010 01:11:41 -0500 Economy Europe UBS Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14256 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14255 I know I have written about ideas like this before, but I cannot remember where.  Let me start with a story.  I was at a Society of Actuaries conference in 2001 when I bumped into an actuary who was well-known to most before a meeting.  She recognized me, and I asked her what she was seeing that was new.  She told me, "Liquidity Derivatives." Wed, 10 Feb 2010 12:58:09 -0500 Education Technical Analysis David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14255 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14254 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 1.8% The national oil inventory report normally released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday morning will be delayed until Friday, Feb. 12 due to inclement weather. The EIA remains closed, along with the rest of nonessential federal government services in Washington, in the wake of last weekend's heavy snow, dubbed "Snowmageddon" by the administration. Wed, 10 Feb 2010 12:40:37 -0500 Energy Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14254 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14253 Wed, 10 Feb 2010 12:37:21 -0500 Broad Market ETFs International ETFs Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14253 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14252 Wed, 10 Feb 2010 12:26:48 -0500 Asia Canada Crude Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14252 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14251 Much as I am sick of bailout nation, and bailout global nation, the European rescue of Greece was probably necessary to stop a total euro currency meltdown that might have triggered a worldwide debt deflation downward spiral. I'm sure that's the inner logic we will be hearing from Euro-land leaders in the days ahead. One thing I do like: The new Greek budget will slash union wages across-the-board. And it does have some modest pro-growth tax cuts in the package. It also looks like Germany and France will put loan guarantees behind the Greek debt. Wed, 10 Feb 2010 12:26:36 -0500 Europe Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14251 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14250 ETF Spotlight 02/10/2010 Wed, 10 Feb 2010 11:54:31 -0500 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14250 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14248 In yesterday's blog, I considered how good intentions can have unintended consequences when they come in the form of a social agenda and are enforced by law. The US attempt at providing an universal health system paid for the taxpayer seems to me to be another such ‘good intention'. From what I have read, the failed Obama initiative is very similar the one passed by the Whitlam (Australian) Government in 1975. The main difference is the Obama version had an opt-out clause. Wed, 10 Feb 2010 10:56:31 -0500 Builders Economy Financials Lenders Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14248 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14247 Wed, 10 Feb 2010 10:51:34 -0500 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14247 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14246 Is the goal of avoiding the risk of "too big to fail" in regulating banks by keeping them smaller too improbable to work? Yes, according to Avinash Persaud of Intelligence Capital, a financial advisory firm. In a new essay posted today on Vox, he argues that policymakers should instead focus on making "the financial system less sensitive to the error in the markets' estimate of risk..." He goes on to write, Wed, 10 Feb 2010 10:50:05 -0500 Economy Financials Politics Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14246 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14245 Wed, 10 Feb 2010 09:11:14 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14245 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14244    The higher US Trade Deficit has led to a fall in the USDJPY.  The price has moved below the trendline support and the 100 hour MA at the 89.53 level. These levels will now become upside resistance levels for the pair. Yesterday's low was 89.15. Wed, 10 Feb 2010 09:09:48 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14244 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14243 I was overwhelmed and moved by the response to my "Goodbye" post last week. After much soul searching and thought, I have come up with a solution that will both preserve my relationship with Portfolio Tilt's readership, as well as continue to provide our reader base with the objective, direct, and professional content that you depend on. Wed, 10 Feb 2010 08:19:02 -0500 Technical Analysis The Market Drew Birenbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14243 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14242 Wed, 10 Feb 2010 12:01:30 -0500 Energy Sector ETFs Scott Martindalehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14242 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14241 Since the first index fund was launched in the early 1970s, the concept of passive investing has come a long way in terms of earning respect. For broad U.S. equity mandates in particular, finding supporters of active management is getting tougher in the 21st century. And among those managers who claim to mint alpha relative to broadly defined benchmarks, such as the Russell 3000 and MSCI U.S. Broad Market Index, many track records look a lot less impressive after adjusting for size (market cap) and style (value). Tue, 09 Feb 2010 07:08:50 -0500 Education ETFs The Market Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14241 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14240 Tue, 09 Feb 2010 06:23:11 -0500 Education Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14240 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14239 After completing a perfect bull flag (in pure text-book example) as expected, the US Dollar Index is now forming a bearish 'sell' signal at the target of $80.50, which is worth our attention. Pardon the purposeful alliteration, but let's look at the Daily Dollar Doji Sell Signal: Tue, 09 Feb 2010 06:18:11 -0500 Currencies Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14239 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14237 Tue, 09 Feb 2010 04:25:49 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14237 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14235 2010 is set to be a promising year for the hedge fund industry, according to research from Moody's. Uncertainty over regulation and the economy means the industry isn't out of the woods yet, Odi Lahav from Moody's told CNBC Tuesday.  Tue, 09 Feb 2010 03:38:20 -0500 Home Page Video Editorial Staffhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14235 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14234 The SEC feared that a metal with limited world supply might be the target of excessive speculation. It follows that a true Platinum ETF backed by the physical commodity itself almost did not make it to the U.S. exchanges. However, the SEC finally approved ETFS Physical Platinum (NYSE: PPLT) in December 2009 and the exchange-traded fund launched in January 2010. Tue, 09 Feb 2010 03:04:29 -0500 Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14234 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14233 Tue, 09 Feb 2010 03:04:12 -0500 Currencies Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14233 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14232 Retail investors in the United States sometimes have difficulty staying on top of events and markets in Europe. Tue, 09 Feb 2010 02:25:41 -0500 Europe Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14232 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14231 I'm trying hard to remain optimistic about economic recovery here in America—and for that matter, around the world. In my credo, optimism trumps pessimism every time. And, despite wayward anti-growth policies still pouring out of Washington, I still believe in the cyclical-recovery scenario here at home. But the growing debt problem in the U.S., Europe, and elsewhere is starting to sap confidence in the optimistic growth scenario. I have to keep my eyes open to this.  Tue, 09 Feb 2010 01:56:51 -0500 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14231 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14230 Crazy pill time. More disinformation as we get it. Is Germany merely probing to see the market reaction to leaks? If the Bund collapses can they just call the whole thing off?From Market News: Tue, 09 Feb 2010 01:55:32 -0500 Europe Technical Analysis Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14230 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14229 Tue, 09 Feb 2010 01:04:29 -0500 Currencies Europe Precious Metals Traders' Talk Jim Welshhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14229 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14228 (NYSE: TLT) is showing a notable contraction in price and a compression between key daily moving averages that is worth watching for a breakout move. Let's take a look at the daily chart to see this squeezing structure. Tue, 09 Feb 2010 12:47:10 -0500 Bonds Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14228 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14227 Tue, 09 Feb 2010 12:33:23 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14227 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14226 Tue, 09 Feb 2010 12:31:23 -0500 Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14226 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14225 The longer I study Fidelity's commission-free ETF announcement of last week (2/2/10), the more impressed I become.  This is not a hap-hazard list of ETFs that Fidelity and BlackRock threw together.  It is a solid lineup assembled from what many would consider the best iShares core offerings in domestic equities, international equities, and fixed income ETFs. Tue, 09 Feb 2010 12:21:09 -0500 Speciality ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14225 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14224 The number of exchange traded products on ETF Deathwatch dropped below 100 for the first time since November 2008.  Whether this drop is permanent or temporary remains to be seen.  I believe it to be a temporary event caused by a slowdown in new product introductions a year ago.  Some 70 new funds introduced in the past six months are currently enjoying the six-month grace period which gives them a chance to develop some traction.  Many of these could be added to the list as their grace periods expire. Tue, 09 Feb 2010 12:17:14 -0500 Broad Market ETFs Ron Rowlandhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14224 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14223 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.4% Most people don't think of meat as a hard asset. After all, you want your steak tender, don't you? Still, the cattle market has been cooking since the beginning of February. Yesterday's 40-cent (0.4 percent) gain notched the fifth straight higher close for April live cattle. Tue, 09 Feb 2010 12:12:50 -0500 Agriculture Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14223 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14222 Although the global economic calendar is relatively light this week, trade is one of the primary focuses. This morning, Germany and the U.K. released their trade numbers and we learned that while the trade surplus in Germany increased, the trade deficit in the U.K. rose. On Wednesday, the U.S. and Canada will release a report on their latest trade conditions and based upon the market's forecasts, economists are looking for the trade deficits of both countries to shrink. Tue, 09 Feb 2010 11:44:14 -0500 Asia Currencies Economy Europe Technical Analysis Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14222 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14221 There are countless investment strategies, but arguably there's only one true benchmark: the market portfolio, defined as a passive allocation to all the major asset classes, initially weighted by the relative dollar values and thereafter left to the whim of market fluctuation. Tue, 09 Feb 2010 11:25:17 -0500 Education Technical Analysis Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14221 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14220 Since the market ditched its typical Monday mania today, maybe we can escape the inevitable depression that has followed in its wake. For five consecutive weeks, the market has started with an up-day only to tank for the rest of the week. Some have blamed the Monday upsurge on weekend manipulation of the futures market. If that's the case, it didn't work today. Overall, the S&P 500 has fallen from a high of 1150 on 1/19 to a low last week of 1044, losing approximately -9% from its high five weeks ago. Tue, 09 Feb 2010 11:45:32 -0500 Technical Analysis David Brownhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14220 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14215 Sorry I haven't written much recently.  The recent snowstorms have tossed me around, as I care for my family, and those around me.  It is amusing in a backwards way, to see Washington, DC frozen at a time when there is so much volatility in global finance.  Yo, Treasury, make sure the skeleton crew on international finance gets in, regardless. The incentives are perverse in every way in Europe.  If Germany, France, and the Netherlands don't bail out Greece, then what will become of Portugal and Spain?  And later, Italy and Ireland?  In aggregate, this is big. Tue, 09 Feb 2010 09:16:44 -0500 Asia Canada Economy David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14215 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14214 Tue, 09 Feb 2010 09:07:10 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14214 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14213 Dollar Dallies But Stocks Stumble Anyway - For much of Monday's trading, the dollar rally stalled amid swirling rumors of possible rescue meetings to try to solve the emerging Greek crisis. For a while that allowed oil and gold to rally a bit. It also allowed stocks to churn sideways.Then in early afternoon, stocks began to sell off. The selling began to accelerate in the final hour. Traders began to rush about trying to find the trigger for the accelerated selling. Tue, 09 Feb 2010 08:55:12 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14213 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14212 Tue, 09 Feb 2010 08:37:48 -0500 Builders Economy Financials Lenders Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14212 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14211    Tue, 09 Feb 2010 08:10:45 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14211 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14210 Woody Allen once said, "Eighty percent of success is showing up." Now that VIX and More has been showing up for four years, this formerly whimsical electronic playpen that is dedicated to tilting at statistical windmills now has all the earmarks of a veteran mainstream investment blog. I like to think I continue to straddle the fence between both worlds, but it is nice to occasionally be lumped in with some luminaries who tread down a more traditional path. Tue, 09 Feb 2010 08:06:57 -0500 Education Technical Analysis Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14210 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14209 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 05:51:50 -0500 Broad Market ETFs Emerging Markets International ETFs New ETFs Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14209 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14208 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 04:59:54 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14208 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14207 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 04:20:12 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14207 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14206 On 2/8, Morningstar greeted its ETF readers with a spotlight on a "valuation attractive" segment, consumer staples. The virtues of consistent dividend returns from the likes of Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola and Wal-Mart were discussed as well. Mon, 08 Feb 2010 03:17:46 -0500 Broad Market ETFs Speciality ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14206 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14205 Monday brings us another quick update of the "Indicators the Disciplined Investor is Watching" from Andrew Horowitz. The February 8th update is entitled, "Oil Appears Oversold... For Now" and includes a quick overview of key index charts to watch. Mon, 08 Feb 2010 02:44:35 -0500 Crude Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14205 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14204 If you were counting on the January Effect to generate easy profits this year, you were sorely disappointed.  The January Effect showed up in full force this year... only it arrived one month early, stealing the benefit of the popular anecdotal "Effect." In general, the January Effect refers to the tendency (or expectancy) for Small Cap stocks - usually those that are part of the Russell 2000 Index - to outperform Large Cap stocks - usually those in the Dow Jones 30 or S&P 500 - on a relative basis during the month of January each year. Mon, 08 Feb 2010 02:30:52 -0500 Technical Analysis Technician's Edge Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14204 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14201 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 01:26:27 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14201 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14198 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 01:09:39 -0500 Skyscraper - 160x600 Jane Sonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14198 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14197 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 01:08:53 -0500 Article Detail Page 275x229 Jane Sonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14197 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14196 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 01:06:48 -0500 New Home Page - 300x250px Jane Sonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14196 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14192 We love patterns! Mon, 08 Feb 2010 12:47:29 -0500 Technical Analysis Philip Davishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14192 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14187 Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be chatting up the central bank's exit strategy later this week when he testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on February 10. To say that there are political and economic risks hovering over the subject is to understate the potential hazards. Mon, 08 Feb 2010 12:31:22 -0500 Bonds Economy Technical Analysis Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14187 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14186 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.2% Mon, 08 Feb 2010 12:25:40 -0500 Options Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14186 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14185 So much attention lately has been devoted to the "PIIGS" countries and economic concerns, but I wanted to take a special look at Spain's market index along with the iShares ETF to note a classic Rounded Reversal pattern that could be ending into a likely support area.  Let's take a look first at the $INP - iShares Spain Index: Mon, 08 Feb 2010 12:23:28 -0500 Europe Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14185 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14184 Is The Market Following A Script? If you ask Elliott it is.From Our Recent Blog:"There is also a good possibility that the whole move down off the January highs traces out ABCDE (5 Waves down before all said and done). But we'll take it a step at a time." Mon, 08 Feb 2010 12:23:20 -0500 Education Technical Analysis David Grandeyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14184 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14180 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 12:19:19 -0500 Currencies Economy Europe Technical Analysis Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14180 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14179 This is the final in the series (Part I, Part II). To date we have identified the barriers, and have suggested solutions for the trader who cannot pull the trigger. Today we have a look at solutions at the trader who enters without forming a risk management plan—before or after entry. I find this type of trader the most challenging. Initially I used to think that the behaviour was caused by: Mon, 08 Feb 2010 11:44:48 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14179 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14178 Yesterday we identified the main patterns that identify barriers to success. Today, I want to consider possible solutions. Fri, 05 Feb 2010 11:39:00 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14178 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14176 Every NFL football team every year has one simple goal—win the Super Bowl.  Everything they do day in and day out is centered around achieving that goal.  Investing in the stock market should be no different.  Your goals every month should always be the same:   Goal #1 -- Protect the value of your account Goal #2 -- How are you going to get your $500 a week. Why only $500 a week? Well those modest gains will give you the following annual returns: Mon, 08 Feb 2010 11:23:15 -0500 Education David Grandeyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14176 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14175 ETF Spotlight 02/07/2010 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 11:00:42 -0500 ETF Videos Home Page Video Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14175 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14173 The chart below of (NYSE: XLE), SPDRs Energy ETF shows the importance of the $54.25 level for the sector ETF. There is a convergence of trendlines and support at this level acting as a key level to hold for the sector. Friday the level was broken intraday but managed to rally back at the close. I would watch this level to hold and bounce back into the trading range or break lower towards the next level of support near $51.90. Mon, 08 Feb 2010 12:44:25 -0500 Energy ETFs Farrish Files Jim Farrishhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14173 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14172 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 10:20:44 -0500 Pentonomics Politics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14172 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14171 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 09:18:27 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14171 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14170 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 08:43:11 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14170 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14169 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 08:42:13 -0500 Technical Analysis The Market Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14169 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14168    The GBPUSD has had a choppy trading session as the market fights with negative fundamental bias and a market that may be oversold and in need of a consolidation/non-trend period. Last week the  price moved from a high of 1.6068 to the low of 1.5533 today.   The low from Friday reached 1.5557.  Mon, 08 Feb 2010 08:30:44 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14168 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14167 Last week was the type of trading week that raised a lot more questions than it answered - at least for me. Mon, 08 Feb 2010 08:27:03 -0500 Currencies Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14167 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14166 Volatility Tracker for the week of February 8, 2010 Mon, 08 Feb 2010 08:25:11 -0500 Options Technical Analysis Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14166 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14165 Are there any bright spots in this market?In normal times investors can use sector investing to find opportunities despite overall market weakness.  The last two years have provided fewer such opportunities.  The correlation among sectors has been very high in both directions.  Most recently, sector strength has been linked to dollar weakness.An energy play seems counter-intuitive, but our model rates it as the top choice this week. Mon, 08 Feb 2010 08:23:18 -0500 ETFs Technical Analysis The Market Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14165 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14164 It's true that failed trades sometimes can teach us more than successful trades, especially if we take the time to learn what went wrong - as in "Did I make a trading error" or "Did the market do something unexpected?" There was a particularly high probability trade set-up that triggered late Friday afternoon that failed due to the afternoon surge, but there were a few hints and lessons we can learn from this experience, so let's take a look! First, we'll start with the @ES (SP-mini futures) contract 5-min chart:   Mon, 08 Feb 2010 08:21:36 -0500 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14164 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14163 When I look at the present economic environment, I am not encouraged.  But if you really want me to be discouraged, talk to me about politics. For the last 40-80 years we have been borrowing, whether implicitly (pensions, retiree healthcare) or explicitly, deferring problems into the future, where they will be compounded with interest and survivorship (lifespans have lengthened, Kaiser, and sadly for those who pay, they want a high quality of life in their dotage). Mon, 08 Feb 2010 06:46:53 -0500 Bonds Economy Europe David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14163 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14161 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 05:52:46 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14161 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14160 A European country is struggling to rein in its swelling budget deficit. It chooses to sell additional treasury bonds to fund its spending needs/desires. The European Commission doesn't like the direction its member country is heading with that rising deficit. So the group publicly pressures the member country to act more responsibly. Fri, 05 Feb 2010 04:51:09 -0500 Speciality ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14160 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14159 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 04:06:35 -0500 Broad Market ETFs International ETFs New ETFs Sector ETFs Speciality ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14159 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14158 Assuming some massive UUP March call position is not being rolled, today was the second biggest volume day in UUP March Calls ($23 strike) ever. We believe this is not a roll as the trade did not have the pre-negotiated look of a usual roll, which does not move the actual price of the option itself materially. The March $23 strikes have been trading in a wide range opening just north of $0.70 and last traded $0.79/0.80. This is a major bet on future dollar strength. And, by implication, a leveraged bet on major market downside. Fri, 05 Feb 2010 02:29:16 -0500 Currencies Options Traders' Talk UUP Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14158 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14157 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 02:13:30 -0500 Technical Analysis Bob Langhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14157 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14154 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.6% PHEW! Thursday was quite a day! Spot gold dropped more than $48, or 4.4 percent, dragging gold stocks with it. Well, when you actually look at the losses sustained by the miners, you're apt to think it was the equities that led the descent. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) gave up 5.5 percent yesterday. Fri, 05 Feb 2010 01:37:26 -0500 Precious Metals GDX Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14154 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14153 They folks at the Fibozachi website have been busy lately, posting a few brief updates to the state of the markets, including some bold claims on the state of the S&P 500.  I wanted to share a few of those links with you here. First, here is today's Short-Term Update Post published at the Zero Hedge website: February 5th update: SP500, Dow, Nasdaq, VIX, US Banks, Gold, and Silver Fri, 05 Feb 2010 01:30:35 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14153 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14152 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 01:28:39 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14152 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14151 It was September 15th, 2008 when Lehman announced they would file Chapter 11. Fri, 05 Feb 2010 12:45:36 -0500 Economy Philip Davishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14151 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14146 Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. That about sums up the struggle in nonfarm payrolls to reach the tipping point of growth (or at least zero). Fri, 05 Feb 2010 12:35:03 -0500 Economy Technical Analysis Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14146 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14145 A full one-quarter of India's population (300 million/1.2 billion) comprise a bustling middle class. China may have half as many viable consumers (140 million/1.4 billion people). Wage and income growth favor more spending by India's middle class as well. Most business profits in China go to Chinese state-run enterprises, leaving less money for consumption-minded citizens; in contrast, profits from all sizes of Indian businesses go into the pockets of... well... Indians. And that means that Indians may be able to shop. Fri, 05 Feb 2010 12:29:27 -0500 International ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14145 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14144 I looked at yesterday's selloff a number of different ways last night. The overriding theme suggested this selloff is already getting overdone. Below is one example of a study I ran. Fri, 05 Feb 2010 12:26:48 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14144 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14143 Here are the expectations for tonight 8:30 am EST: Consensus   Consensus Range Nonfarm Payrolls                            0          -40,000  to 75,000 Unemployment Rate - Level        10.1 %      9.9 % to 10.2 % Average Hourly Earnings              0.2 %       0.1 % to 0.2 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 12:26:14 -0500 Economy Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14143 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14142 Over the last couple weeks, gold and silver stocks have been clobbered.  The flagship index that tracks this sector, the HUI, hemorrhaged nearly a sixth of its value in just 8 trading days!  Frightened traders have been scrambling for the exits, dumping their PM stocks at any price to rush their capital out of harm's way. Fri, 05 Feb 2010 12:25:02 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Adam Hamiltonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14142 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14139 The proximate cause of yesterday's stock market sell-off was the growing fear of European government defaults and the future of the euro currency itself. These are legitimate fears. But I wouldn't make too much of this. Greece, Portugal, and Spain are all lovely places, but how important are they really? Fri, 05 Feb 2010 12:20:28 -0500 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14139 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14138 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 12:01:15 -0500 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14138 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14137 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 11:08:16 -0500 Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14137 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14136 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 08:59:27 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14136 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14135 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 08:46:24 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14135 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14134 Fri, 05 Feb 2010 08:44:06 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14134 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14133 Given all the requests I have to update the table below, I guess it is time to come to terms that the SPX Peak to Trough Summary Chart is going to be a regular feature on the blog for the time being. Fri, 05 Feb 2010 08:43:09 -0500 Technical Analysis SPX Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14133 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14131 With all major markets falling sharply on Thursday, I though it would be a good idea to take a quick "fly-by" glance at the daily charts of the S&P 500, Gold, Crude Oil and then the US Dollar Index. Let's start with the S&P 500:    A quick glance shows the "Cradle" sell signal was accurate, as I highlighted in yesterday's post: Fri, 05 Feb 2010 08:38:19 -0500 Technical Analysis The Market Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14131 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14130 I am at a turning point where I have to refocus my priorities, and unfortunately I am sorry to announce that as a result I will be halting all futures updates here at Portfolio Tilt for an undisclosed period. It is time for me to pursue more serious opportunities...(details inside) Starting Tilt Fri, 05 Feb 2010 08:36:18 -0500 Economy The Market Drew Birenbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14130 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14129 Thu, 04 Feb 2010 07:17:50 -0500 Premium Newsletter Jane Sonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14129 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14128 Yields on short-term government securities vary from just above zero (10 basis points for 3-month T-bills) to around 1% (88 basis points for a 2-year Treasury). Those are extraordinarily low rates by the standards of recent decades. But don't confuse that with borrowing costs, or the demand or ability to borrow. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 07:01:26 -0500 Bonds Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14128 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14123 Greece is the word these days.    Thu, 04 Feb 2010 05:23:44 -0500 Economy Europe Philip Davishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14123 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14118 Thu, 04 Feb 2010 04:32:27 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14118 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14117 During the 2010 Superbowl commercials, keep an eye out for "Green Car of the Year" winner, the Audi A3 TDI. The advertisement features rock band "Cheap Trick" as it re-records its 70's hit, "Dream Police," as the "Green Police." In spite of corporations putting their greenest feet forward, investors should be nervous. If crude oil reamins at $75 per barrel, and if "climateers" lose more momentum, there's a lot less reason to believe that greener investments will be profitable in the intermediate run. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 04:31:06 -0500 Speciality ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14117 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14116 Thu, 04 Feb 2010 04:24:14 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14116 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14115 Investors and Traders who follow Amazon have been treated to a roller-coaster ride, and if the key support level at $110.00 fails, investors could be subject to a sudden drop in price. Let's take a quick look at Amazon's (Nasdaq: AMZN) daily chart to note a very interesting and unique "Rounded Arc" chart formation and then note the importance of the $110.00 per share level and the next line of support if this level is broken. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 03:57:06 -0500 Technical Analysis Technician's Edge Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14115 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14113 Thu, 04 Feb 2010 02:35:58 -0500 Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14113 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14112 Last week we pondered the possibility that an ill wind was blowing in what had been a fairly consistent decline in initial jobless claims. Today's update on new filings for jobless benefits doesn't offering a soothing follow-up. If anything, we're more anxious. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 02:21:45 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14112 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14111 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.6% There's nothing more bracing in the morning than glancing at the trading screen and seeing nothing but red numbers. Domestic stocks: down; foreign equities; down; crude oil: down; gold: down, commodities: down. Ooops. There's a green number-the U.S. dollar. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 02:13:15 -0500 Technical Analysis The Market Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14111 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14110 Investors who are attempting to get a sense of the magnitude of anxiety about the economic problems in Greece have a multitude of ways in which to measure how markets are evaluating the situation. Perhaps the most direct approach is with Greece credit default swaps, but the sovereign credit information available to retail investors through firms such as Markit is neither timely or comprehensive. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 01:37:08 -0500 Economy Europe Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14110 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14109 I have been thinking about the the forces distorting the global economy.  In the long run, the distortions don't matter, because economies are bigger than governments, and eventually economies prevail over governments.  Here are my dozen problems in the global economy. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 01:31:33 -0500 Economy David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14109 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14108 Thu, 04 Feb 2010 01:22:16 -0500 Asia Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14108 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14107 "What's better: gold or gold mining stocks?" I'm asked this question often at cocktail parties, but people aren't always pleased with the answer I give: "It depends." Thu, 04 Feb 2010 01:14:52 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14107 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14106 It's often helpful to step ‘inside' the price action, particularly if you are a swing trader and especially if you are an intraday trader to see the structure and formation of price and how it compares to momentum. Let's take a look at the 10min (NYSE: SPY) chart and note the current levels to watch going forward. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 01:10:03 -0500 Technical Analysis SPY Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14106 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14105 I have been coaching traders to achieve their trading success since the mid-90s. I am still learning new methods of passing on information - the upcoming High Performance Program is a direct result of adapting the recent advances in Neurology to trading education. If the first public endeavour is anywhere close to the control group tests, I will consider it huge success. But what I  mean by success and what other mean by it may be two different things. In this case I define success as improving the abysmal stats: Thu, 04 Feb 2010 12:44:45 -0500 Education Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14105 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14104 In spite of an exceptionally robust start for stock assets in the first two days of February, the bears were back at it by Wednesday, 2/3/10. Of the 10 major industry segments, only Consumer Discretionary (NYSE: XLY) and SPDR Select Technology (NYSE: XLK) had positive percentage returns. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 12:43:26 -0500 Sector ETFs XLY Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14104 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14103 This $100 million AIG bonus story is truly outrageous. Here's a company that remains TARPed and bailed-out to the staggering tune of $124 billion, courtesy of the taxpayers. AIG already has received $230 million in prior bonuses from the taxpayers. Let me state unequivocally: This is not free-market capitalism. I'm making this case against AIG bonuses as a market-based conservative, not as a left-wing populist. As I have argued before regarding commercial-bank bonuses, TARPed firms on the taxpayer dole should forego bonus payments. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 12:38:36 -0500 Economy AIG Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14103 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14102 Thu, 04 Feb 2010 11:03:02 -0500 Economy Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14102 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14101 Thu, 04 Feb 2010 10:42:18 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14101 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14100 This is the Project Z outlook for the Qs as of Wednesday's close. Based on the Project Z parameters the Qs are quickly approaching overbought conditions relative to overall market volatility. We have multiple exit conditions and trailing stops in place to limit risk exposure and retain any gains and I expect the current open position to be liquidated today or Friday. The current trade had a double entry (second entry at yellow dot) and is at a break even point after a 5 day duration on the initial entry while holding a .63 gain on the second entry . Thu, 04 Feb 2010 10:41:34 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14100 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14099 On a day like today, when the Dow is down nearly 200 points, it's worth thinking about your stop loss. Do you have one? Is it simple to execute? Most importantly, will you use it? The most foolproof stop loss does no one any good if it's just idling there, often thought about but never actually employed. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 10:32:36 -0500 Education ETFs Tom Lydonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14099 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14098 The price stepped down once again today falling below the 2010 low for the recent move lower at 1.3852 with the low reaching 1.3826.  Off the daily chart the 50% retracement of the move up in 2009 comes in at 1.3800. Keep this level in mind on the downside today.  The EURUSD continues to step down.  The pair has now trended down from the January high of 1.4579  to the low today of 1.3826.    Thu, 04 Feb 2010 08:39:39 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14098 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14097 Mutual fund giant Fidelity has largely sidestepped the ETF revolution, but the company fired in important competitive salvo when they announced that starting today 25 iShares ETFs will be available for trading through Fidelity on a commission-free basis. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 08:36:53 -0500 ETFs Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14097 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14096 Overall action was very slow on Wednesday, as indicated by the low volume seen across many of the major indices. Only the NASDAQ managed to close in positive territory as the index mustered a one point gain for the session. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 08:34:22 -0500 Technical Analysis The Market Drew Birenbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14096 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14095 After selling into year-end market strength to close out the year, net weekly net insider trading transactions (the number of individual buyers minus sellers) has finished January on a slightly positive note, as many insiders appear to have taken advantage of the market weakness to increase their net holdings. Thu, 04 Feb 2010 12:29:36 -0500 The Market Scott Martindalehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14095 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14090 I wanted to highlight a critical overhead resistance level - what I call the "Cradle Crossover" - that is occurring now in the S&P 500 Index.  A resolution of this structure would certainly give us clues as to what to expect going forward. Let's see the SP 500 Daily "Cradle": Wed, 03 Feb 2010 05:30:42 -0500 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14090 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14089 Wed, 03 Feb 2010 04:22:56 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14089 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14088 Consistency could legitimately refer to more than a half dozen investing concepts. What I mean is... which funds produced positive returns over the last 5 days as well as 1-, 3- and 6-month periods. Granted, the first few days of February gave a quick boost to equities. Yet last 3 trading sessions in January were exceptionally unfavorable. It follows that a 5-day gain shows near-term toughness. Wed, 03 Feb 2010 04:07:35 -0500 International ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14088 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14087 Wed, 03 Feb 2010 03:20:18 -0500 Currencies Economy Europe Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14087 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14085 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.4% Forecasting changes in weekly oil inventories can be a dicey business. Sometimes the estimates made by the industry-supported American Petroleum Institute and sell-side analysts are widely disparate; sometimes they coincide. And sometimes, like this week, they can be on either side of the numbers posted by the U.S. Energy Department.Yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories likely rose 4.7 million barrels. Wed, 03 Feb 2010 01:46:40 -0500 Crude Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14085 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14084 Wed, 03 Feb 2010 01:39:31 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14084 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14083 How in the world can Team Obama say they're focused laser-like on jobs and economic growth and at the same time propose $2 trillion in tax hikes on successful investors, entrepreneurs, businesses, banks, and almost anything else that moves? Why in the world would you jack up the top rate for the 1 percent of small-business owners who actually create 45 percent of small-business incomes? I don't get it. And why would you then turn around and use $30 billion of TARP money to give them loans? Huh? Tax them and then lend to them? Again, I just don't get it. Wed, 03 Feb 2010 01:37:35 -0500 Economy Larry Kudlowhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14083 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14082 Tuesday was day two to the upside of the potential Elliot Wave B Wave up. There is an old adage that comes to mind right here and that is:On The Third To Fourth Day Watch For A ReversalThis is also why an IBD O'Neil follow through day takes place on the 4th through the 7th day because if the market is going to fail is usually before the 4th day. At the rate we are climbing the 50 day average and the 50% Fibonacci level are just a day away. On your mark, get set, wait. Wed, 03 Feb 2010 12:50:28 -0500 Technical Analysis David Grandeyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14082 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14078 Sabrient's fundamentals-based SectorCast-ETF model appears to have softened its conservative posture in the wake of last week's market weakness. Sectors like Financials, InfoTech, and Energy that are more dependent on economic stability and growth are scoring higher this week (based on Friday's closing data), pushing traditionally defensive sectors lower. Notably, after correcting the hardest, stocks in the Materials sector have been receiving upward revisions from the analyst community, which is lifting it from the bottom of the rankings for the first time in a long time. Wed, 03 Feb 2010 12:27:10 -0500 Technical Analysis Scott Martindalehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14078 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14076 Wed, 03 Feb 2010 11:32:59 -0500 Asia Economy Europe Financials Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14076 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14075 Wed, 03 Feb 2010 11:12:35 -0500 Education Personal Finance Dock David Treecehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14075 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14074 Wed, 03 Feb 2010 09:09:05 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14074 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14073 Friday's nonfarm payrolls promises (threatens?) to be a critical update on the labor market. Basically the question is, If not now, when? Wed, 03 Feb 2010 09:01:22 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14073 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14072 The first six days of 2010 filled investors with false hope, as impressive gains in equity markets fueled hope of a return to pre-recession levels for major benchmarks and personal portfolios in 2010. Unfortunately, a reality check came swiftly and harshly, as a sudden turnaround sent markets plummeting for the remainder of the month. But there's a silver lining in January's freefall: the pullback in many markets seems to have been a bit overdone, presenting some attractive entrance points as the calendar turns to February. Wed, 03 Feb 2010 08:49:23 -0500 Emerging Markets International ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14072 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14071 Wed, 03 Feb 2010 08:33:55 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14071 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14070 Yesterday I showed a study that demonstrated how Monday's low volume at the beginning of the bounce was in fact bullish, and not bearish. This is something that many people have difficulty believing. For the more visually inclined I've created a chart below that examines many of the moves up since July.(click chart to enlarge) Wed, 03 Feb 2010 08:33:05 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14070 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14069 Wed, 03 Feb 2010 08:30:44 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14069 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14068    The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.3987 level. The midpoint of the days range comes in at 1.3986.  In addition the 38.2% of the move down from the January 25th high to the low comes in at 1.3983.  As a result we are seeing some hesitation at the level before the ADP report at 8:15 (ext -40K). Lets see whichway the market wants to go following the number. Wed, 03 Feb 2010 08:27:09 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14068 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14067 Why is it so hard for individual investors to make winning decisions?Part of the answer is psychology.  It starts with a simple question.  When is a stock "expensive?"It often helps to have an example, so let us consider Apple (AAPL).  The average investor thinks in one of the following ways: Wed, 03 Feb 2010 08:25:49 -0500 Fundamentals Tech AAPL Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14067 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14066 Equities moved higher on Tuesday accompanied by an overall increase in volume for the session. The S&P 500 led the way to the upside as prices rose 1.3% and reclaimed the psychologically important 1100 level. However, this does not yet signify the beginning of a new intermediate uptrend, as we have yet to see a decisive follow-through day. Until we receive upside confirmation, we will continue to tread very carefully as long as prices trade below the 20/50 day EMA's. Wed, 03 Feb 2010 08:23:34 -0500 Technical Analysis The Market Drew Birenbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14066 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14064 I wanted to share an educational chart on how the Three Key Market Internals formed a predictable pattern that helped forecast the odds of a sharp rally ahead, which we're seeing materialize today. Let's take a look not just at that, but the current chart of Market Internals and some key Fibonacci overhead resistance targets to watch. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 05:36:49 -0500 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14064 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14063 Tue, 02 Feb 2010 05:21:22 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14063 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14059 The Institute of International Finance (IIF) recently reported on private capital flowing into emerging economies. The IIF found that emerging economies received $232 billion dollars less in 2009 than they had received in 2008... from $667 billion down to $435 billion. So if there was significantly less money in emerging economies to stimulate growth in 2009, how could so many emerging regions have scored amazing ‘09 stock market returns? Answer... the markets are forward looking. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 01:46:05 -0500 International ETFs Technical Analysis Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14059 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14058 Tue, 02 Feb 2010 01:41:25 -0500 ETFs Michael Johnstonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14058 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14057 I was on CNBC Europe this morning talking about Volcker’s speech today and outlook for ECB and BoE rate decisions. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 01:08:59 -0500 Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14057 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14056 If I were asked what is the main difference between the mechanical and discretionary trader, I'd answer: "The importance of context". For the mechanical trader it's a question of see ‘a setup and trigger' ('see a trade'), take a trade; the discretionary views a setup in its context. Gold has served up a perfect example of what I mean. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:50:40 -0500 Education Technical Analysis Ray Barroshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14056 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14055 Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.0% Inflation's a hot topic ‘round here. Has been for quite a while. There has been, especially, a lot of heat and light generated about the Consumer Price Index. Many people distrust the government's numbers. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:49:51 -0500 Economy Education Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14055 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14054 Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:40:33 -0500 Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14054 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14053 Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:34:59 -0500 Asia Michael Pettishttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14053 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14052 For those of us who follow overseas markets, I wanted to share a quick reference to the overhead resistance levels and structure as seen on the Monthly Japanese/Tokyo Nikkei Index. Let's take a look (monthly): Starting with the October 2007 peak (a few months prior to the October SP500 peak) and ending with the October 2008 and March 2009 lows, we see the following Fibonacci Retracement grid, which marks the 38.2% resistance level at the 11,270 level. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:24:15 -0500 Asia Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14052 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14051 Yesterday's Wall Street Journal warned that a "a treacherous landscape of potential trading problems" harasses the world of ETFs. Most of these problems are associated with liquidity. Some have it, some don't. Identifying the haves, and the have-nots, is prudent way to start looking at ETFs. But the task is daunting, at least in the beginning of your search, because of the sheer number of products to review. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:20:51 -0500 Education ETFs Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14051 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14050 Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:12:20 -0500 Education Technical Analysis Bob Langhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14050 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14049 Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:09:17 -0500 Earnings Education David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14049 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14048 Consider today's price action in the currency market to be the calm before the storm. This morning, the U.S. dollar is virtually unchanged against most of the major currencies but with 2 more interest rate decisions this week and non-farm payrolls on Friday, this consolidative price action is not going to last. The lack of market moving data today explains the mixed performance of the U.S. dollar. Pending home sales was the only number released this morning and it came out right in line with expectations. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:05:53 -0500 Aussie/NZ Currencies Europe Housing Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14048 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14047 Tue, 02 Feb 2010 12:00:26 -0500 Pentonomics Michael Pentohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14047 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14046 Forget that the market was down for the fourth consecutive week on Friday.  Investors woke up in a new world today and sent the market soaring.   It is Monday, after all.  Tue, 02 Feb 2010 11:11:26 -0500 Technical Analysis David Brownhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14046 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14041 It is widely believed that gold stocks offer leveraged exposure to changes in the gold price, but this belief is false. At least, the historical record suggests that it is false on a long-term basis. As evidence we include, below, a chart of the BGMI/gold ratio covering the past 50 years (BGMI is short for Barrons Gold Mining Index). Tue, 02 Feb 2010 10:57:12 -0500 Precious Metals Technical Analysis Steve Savillehttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14041 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14039 Tue, 02 Feb 2010 09:49:26 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Bob Barneshttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14039 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14038 We're announcing the publication of a new online-only monthly magazine called Expiring Monthly: The Option Traders Journal. It'll be published on the Monday following each options expiration (clever, right?) and the first issue is scheduled for Monday, March 22. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 08:55:38 -0500 Education Options Jared Woodardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14038 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14037    Tue, 02 Feb 2010 08:54:19 -0500 Currencies Traders' Talk Greg Michalowskihttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14037 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14036 Tue, 02 Feb 2010 08:52:12 -0500 The Market Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14036 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14035 NYSE volume came in at the lowest level in over 2 weeks as the market rallied on Monday. Conventional wisdom suggests this low volume is a bad sign and it hurts the chances for a further bounce/rally. I've seen many comments in the last 24 hours stating the bounce cannot be trusted because of the low volume. So below is one test I ran examining this theory. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 08:51:16 -0500 Technical Analysis Traders' Talk Rob Hannahttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14035 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14034 I am delighted to announce that I am joining forces with four of the top options bloggers to launch Expiring Monthly: The Option Traders Journal. This electronic magazine will be published once per month on the Monday immediately following options expiration, with the inaugural issue scheduled for publication on Monday, March 22nd. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 08:49:41 -0500 Education Traders' Talk Bill Lubyhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14034 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14033 Over the last two weeks of trading, those focused on the daily lesson have come to expect that stocks will move lower.  We all know about behavioral finance.  We know how easily humans see a "pattern" from a few data points.Here is the interesting thing about patterns:There is no "flu shot" for behavioral finance. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 08:48:05 -0500 ETFs Technical Analysis The Market Jeff Millerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14033 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14032 Did you attend Davos this year? No? Neither did I. Next year, perhaps. Then again, maybe we're not missing all that much by staying home. Why suffer airports and rubber chicken lunches in the digital age? Well, it's true you can't have a quiet chat with Mr. X over a scotch and soda via the web with the Swiss Alps in the background. On the other hand, everyone can afford the out-of-pocket expense for taking a peek as a long distance web voyeur. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 08:46:20 -0500 Economy Education Politics Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14032 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14031 Tue, 02 Feb 2010 03:59:20 -0500 Economy Politics Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14031 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14030 Stock Markets began the week (and month) on a positive note as the S&P 500 led the way to the upside rising 1.4% for the session. According to Bespoke Investment Group, equities have seen a positive close on Monday 17 out of the last 19 weeks. Tue, 02 Feb 2010 03:51:04 -0500 Technical Analysis Drew Birenbaumhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14030 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14028 Mon, 01 Feb 2010 04:52:41 -0500 Commodities Matthew Bradbardhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14028 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14027 Let's take a quick look at the recent successfully defended support zone in gold and take a quick look at both the daily and intraday 120-min chart to see how support developed and what might be in store next for gold prices. First, let's start with a view of the Daily Chart: Mon, 01 Feb 2010 04:20:21 -0500 Technical Analysis Technician's Edge Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14027 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14024 The folks at CBS MarketWatch are reporting accurately. Gold rose on Monday's bounce-back due to manufacturing optimism, inflation hedging and U.S. dollar depreciation. Mon, 01 Feb 2010 02:30:52 -0500 Precious Metals Speciality ETFs Gary Gordonhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14024 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14023 The U.S. dollar has had an incredible run over the past 2 months, leading many traders to wonder whether the dollar is overvalued. The answer is NO. Based upon purchasing power parity, all of the major currencies are still very overvalued against the U.S. dollar - particularly the Aussie. What does this mean? From a valuation stand-point, the dollar still has room to rise. Mon, 01 Feb 2010 01:33:18 -0500 Currencies Economy Traders' Talk Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14023 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14021 Mon, 01 Feb 2010 01:17:58 -0500 Economy Traders' Talk Jeff Pietschhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14021 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14020 The December update on personal income and spending isn't terribly informative. Disposable personal income rose 0.4% in December, modestly above the monthly average rise during 2009 (0.3%). Meanwhile, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2% in December, or slightly below average based on the monthly average for last year (0.3%). It all rounds out to a yawn in terms of what one month's numbers tell us. Par for the course. Mon, 01 Feb 2010 12:54:15 -0500 Economy Jim Picernohttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14020 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14019 Mon, 01 Feb 2010 12:45:56 -0500 Economy Tyler Durdenhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14019 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14018 I ordinarily like the writings of Jason Zweig, so this post is not meant as a criticism of him.  He wrote an interesting article suggesting that US investors may suffer reduced performance because they invest too much in US stocks.  Ideally, shouldn't investors seek out the stocks that are likely to perform the best, regardless of where they are located in our world? Mon, 01 Feb 2010 12:44:41 -0500 Economy Education Int'l David Merkelhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14018 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14017 It's time for another update from Andrew Horowitz of the Disciplined Investor website for a check on "Indicators We are Watching for February 1st, 2010. The current update is ominously entitled "Bears in Charge" which highlights some key points that warrant attention. Mon, 01 Feb 2010 12:15:13 -0500 Technical Analysis Corey Rosenbloomhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14017 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14016 Real-Time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.0% Oil and gold are looking a little black and blue as the result of a post-New Year sell-off. Well, truth be told, oil's been taking most of the punches. Nearby crude contracts are off nearly $8 a barrel, or 9.5 percent, since the top of the year; spot gold's slipped only $16 an ounce, or 1.5 percent. Mon, 01 Feb 2010 12:13:49 -0500 Crude Precious Metals Technical Analysis Brad Ziglerhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14016 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14015 Welcome to a big week in the forex markets with 3 central bank rate decisions and employment reports from the U.S. and Canada due for release. A meeting between G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers will also be held on Friday and Saturday (Feb 5 and 6) and any comments about the recent volatility in the currencies - which would be a more politically palatable way of saying excessive dollar strength - could have sharp ramifications for the forex market. Mon, 01 Feb 2010 12:12:09 -0500 Currencies Economy Kathy Lienhttp://www.greenfaucet.com?q=node/14015 http://www.greenfaucet.com?q=