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Quiet Trade

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 05:50:13 -0500

Germany May Hold Key To Risk Rally

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 10:00:06 -0500

Still in Good Shape

Gary Kaltbaum — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 09:12:54 -0500

The bottom line is — the market remains in shape. There are few areas, not so good. Plenty of stocks that are not in good shape. But the things that are working, are working fine.

Some Long-Term Perspective on Where This Market Is

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 08:48:36 -0500

With US Equity Indexes challenging and breaking to new recovery highs, it can be helpful to take a moment to raise your perspective to the monthly chart frame.

Let’s take a quick look at the monthly index charts, starting with the S&P 500:

Game On!

Kathy Lien — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 07:52:06 -0500

Job Openings On The Rise

Jim Picerno — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 07:44:20 -0500

Job openings in the U.S. rose to 3.4 million on the last business day of December, up from 3.1 million a month earlier, the Labor Department reports. “Although the number of job openings remained below the 4.4 million openings when the recession began in December 2007, the number of job openings has increased 39 percent since the end of the recession in June 2009,” according to the accompanying press release.

Building on Strength

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 04:01:54 -0500

Slumping LIBOR Rates Favor Wild-N-Crazy European ETFs

Gary Gordon — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 09:54:12 -0500

There’s been a great deal of discussion about the NASDAQ’s ability to log an 11-year high this past week. What hasn’t been mentioned, however, is that the tech-heavy composite remains 42.5% below its 12-year high. In fact, the composite would need to pole vault 74% from the current 11-year peak to recover the losses incurred from the bursting of the dot-com balloon in March of 2000.

Charles Schwab on the Fed

Gary Kaltbaum — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 09:24:57 -0500

Charles Schwab, the founder and Chairman of Charles Schwab Corporation did an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal and it was one of the best ones I’ve read in a very long time. Everything he said is exactly what I’ve been telling you for the past year or two.

Gold May Point To Stock Pullback

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 09:14:33 -0500

Gold’s rally looks like it may be ready to take a breather, which may coincide with a period of “risk off” beginning relatively soon. Note price action after the orange arrows.

Very Low Range In SPY Potentially Short-Term Bearish

Rob Hanna — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 09:03:34 -0500

Is the U.S. “decoupling” from the European crisis?

Clif Droke — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 07:06:41 -0500

Why Anticipatory Trading is so Tricky

Jeff White — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 10:00:15 -0500

Charts give us the opportunity to wait for confirmation or enter ahead of time – to anticipate. And while the latter may give us more of a feeling of being right, it’s not an easy way to trade.

Here’s an example from this week…

AGP is sitting in a bullish consolidation pattern here within an existing uptrend. This is a quality pattern – but it has yet to confirm. A breakout would happen beyond the upper channel trend line, currently at $70. Check out the setup, then down below let’s discuss trading it.

Three ETF Blogs Worth Bookmarking

Michael Johnston — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 06:57:19 -0500

For advisors and individual investors looking to further their “ETF education,” there is an abundance of material within reach that covers both elementary and advanced aspects of ETF investing. Unfortunately, there’s also quite a bit of bad information out there as well–and separating the wheat from the chaff is sometimes a tall task. Below are three blogs that deliver valuable education about exchange-traded funds as well as insights into current market conditions:

Suppressing Volatility and The Black Swan of Cairo

Bill Luby — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 09:56:15 -0500

Time for a Breather?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 09:51:38 -0500

After last week's data and the recent market run, I sense that it might be time for a deep breath.

There have been solid reasons behind the market rally, including all of the following:

Nuts!

Michael Kahn — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 09:27:07 -0500

While many of my readers are saying "nuts" to me, I am saying the market is nuts again. Back in the good old tech bubble days, when I was putting out support and resistance levels on the major indices for BridgeNews (which kicked a$$, but the way) there basically was no resistance. Stocks were vertical. There was no reasonable place to say - oh, that is where supply will start to swell (resistance). No joke, I said out loud every day "this is nuts!" The market was nuts.

Junior Gold Producers 2

Scott Wright — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 09:23:43 -0500

It only took eleven years, but in 2011 global gold-mine production has finally returned to pre-bull levels. In fact, with 2011’s volume expected to come in at around 88m ounces, we’ll see a new all-time production high. The latest exploration-and-development cycle is finally starting to bear fruit!

QE Buying Power Index

Rob Hanna — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 09:22:05 -0500

New Highs All Around! - Well, Almost...

Bob Lang — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 07:48:56 -0500

Good News is Getting "Boughter"

Gary Kaltbaum — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 07:35:28 -0500

We had an employment number…and as we have been saying on this show…”The Fake Employment Number.”

A Long-Term Look At Employment Days

Rob Hanna — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:33:02 -0500

Employment days have an interesting history and they have contributed to some worthwhile studies over the years. Below is a chart of SPY performance on Employment Days. For this equity curve I filtered to only include days where SPY was > its 200ma. Each trade was a fictional $100k.

Private Payrolls Post A Surprisingly Strong Gain In January

Jim Picerno — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:32:03 -0500

Dollar Soars, Fed, BoJ and Obama All Benefit from Strong Jobs Number

Kathy Lien — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:31:08 -0500

Triple US Equity Index Check on Push to New Recovery Highs

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:29:03 -0500

This morning’s better than expected Jobs Report sent US Equity Indexes into or above key target areas that – if the momentum continues as it appears currently – will break price into New Recovery High territory which you’ll want to monitor closely.

Let’s take a look at the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ to compare current structure and what may occur on a breakthrough beyond these prior high resistance levels.

First, the S&P 500 Daily Chart:

Fastenal (FAST): A Vivid Case of Overvaluation

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:25:34 -0500

The Lower-Risk, High-Reward Benefits Of Currency ETFs

Gary Gordon — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:18:04 -0500

The mainstream financial media may have caught a break in 2011. Neither the S&P 500 nor the Dow fell more than 20% from respective highs, meaning that nobody ran with the “Bear Is Back” headline. It follows that the 3/9/2009 lows still represent the start of a bull market uptrend.

Not surprisingly, many have chosen to wistfully recollect the 90%-plus, since-inception gains for U.S. stocks. Meanwhile, others wisely remind us that substantial corrections of 10% to 20% occurred in each of the 3 years – 2009, 2010, 2011.

Bernanke to Savers: We don't owe you a living

Jeff Miller — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 09:59:35 -0500

In addition to the anticipation ahead of the jobs report and the Facebook S-1 filing, there was another big story yesterday --- the Fed's treatment of savers.

Fed Chair Bernanke testified before the House Budget Committee, responding to some illuminating questions from Committee Chair Paul Ryan (R. WI). Joe Weisenthal, who is usually on the track of the biggest story, anticipated this one yesterday:

S&P Nearing A Top?

Ray Barros — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 08:02:51 -0500

Is the S&P approaching an intermediate high?

Figure 1 shows why I see this as a possibility.

From Oct 10 2010 to Nov 11 2011, we see that the daily ATR was 30 points (with a standard deviation of 10); and the daily volume as 2,301,165 (with a standard deviation of 602,436). Now compare this to the move from Nov 13 2011 to date.

January Employment Report Preview

Jeff Miller — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 10:01:43 -0500

Friday's employment situation report is the big statistical release of the week. Billions in market cap will swing on speculative conclusions about preliminary survey data.

The question is so important that we insist on making unwarranted inferences.

This month we have a special treat. We have a timely update on how the BLS is doing with their estimates. If you (unwisely) choose not to think about the problems in the competing methods, then skip to the conclusion for some data you will not see anywhere else.

Has McDonalds Become Too Pricey To Buy or Hold?

Chuck Carnevale — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 09:53:05 -0500

Ingredients for Inflation

Dock David Treece — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 07:43:51 -0500

Why “Risky” ETFs And “Risk-Free” ETFs Both Continue To Gain

Gary Gordon — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 09:41:39 -0500

In January, the S&P 500 rocketed 4.4%… the largest monthly run-up for U.S. stocks since 1997. At the same time, 5-year U.S treasury bond yields hit record lows and the yields on 10-year treasuries remained below 2%.

Is this normal? For riskier stocks and “risk-free” treasuries to gain ground in the same month? Not if you believe in historical correlations. Over the previous year, the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) and the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF) moved in opposite directions 74% of the time (-0.74 correlation coefficient).

Continued Improvement For Manufacturing Activity In January

Jim Picerno — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 09:35:51 -0500

January looked a bit better through the prism of the ISM manufacturing index, which rose again last month to 54.1 from December's 53.1. That's the third monthly increase in a row. Readings above 50 are generally interpreted as a sign that the economy is growing. It's hardly a knock-out blow against analysts warning of high recession risk these days, but it's clearly a step in the right direction. At this critical juncture for the global economy, anything that doesn't bite us is a big help.

S&P 500 1,343 Will Provide Insight

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 09:20:11 -0500

Some Names on My Radar

Gary Kaltbaum — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 09:31:22 -0500

Yesterday morning, Europe was strong and we gapped up. The news out of Europe was the same as the news we’ve been hearing for 18 months. They finally got “some sort of a deal.” I gotta tell you. I don’t think I’m even going to mention Europe anymore because I don’t know what the heck is going on over there. It seems like every time they say they’re saved—they’re not. But the market couldn’t care less. As I have told you the market has completely ignored Europe.

Groundhog Day

Michael Kahn — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 09:28:15 -0500

Not unlike the 1993 movie of the same name, I find that over the past few years and especially during the rally from the October lows things are repeating as in the movie Groundhog Day. Volume is low, prices are rising, indicators are mediocre but sentiment is extreme and cherished studies, tenets and assumptions no longer hold water.

De-mystifying the Central Bank Balance Sheets

Jeff Miller — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 09:22:57 -0500

One of the many reasons that individual investors are scared witless (TM euphemism by OldProf) is a complete misunderstanding of the role of central banks and a distortion of current policies.

The critics of the Fed -- and now the ECB and other European banks -- have an easy path to page views and affirmation by readers who never took the class in Money and Banking.

This has the usual result. Anyone who is willing to spend a little time while keeping an open mind can gain a significant investment advantage.

The Current Scare

Golden Cross Can Lead To Golden Loss

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 09:15:53 -0500

Fate of Stocks Resides with China, Eurozone Debt Discussions

Gary Gordon — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 08:09:07 -0500

In 2011, the S&P 500 began the year with remarkable fanfare. The benchmark raked in 2.4% in January alone. And yet, in 2012, the S&P 500 has been even more impressive, snagging an eye-popping 4.4%.

Stalling at Key Levels

Kathy Lien — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 09:00:05 -0500

It may have been a mixed day for the U.S. dollar yesterday, but there is no question the rally in the financial market is beginning to run out of steam. Currencies and equities have stalled at key technical levels and without a fresh dose of good news, we could see gains turn into losses. Investors are running out of patience and unfortunately Greece has yet to reach a deal with its creditors and according to the Guardian, the Prime Minister is calling for a crisis meeting, in a sign that the talks may have hit a brick wall.

I’d be the happiest guy if...

Gary Kaltbaum — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 06:43:33 -0500

Tuesday was another day where the market on “now so great news” was down pretty decently. In fact the Dow, at one time, was down 107 points, but closed down only 20. We’ve have a few days like this recently where the market opens bad and finishes better. That’s good news. The not so good news is that is seems that the market is having some trouble right around this area, which not such a big deal.

The Odds That Turnaround Tuesday Lives Up To Its' Name

Rob Hanna — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 07:28:08 -0500

I’ve shown before that of all days Tuesday has historically shown the highest propensity to halt a short-term pullback. The study below is one from the larger Turnaround Tuesday study. All stats are updated..

An Avalanche of Data

Jeff Miller — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 08:55:50 -0500

[Note to readers -- sorry for the delay. As everyone knows, I always plan for the week ahead and I usually write about it. Sometimes I have a recreational weekend, so the writing is delayed. I did some covered writes on dividend stocks today, but that will not be a surprise for regular readers. I suspect that there will be more opportunities this week.]

Will Weaker Earnings and Weaker Guidance Hurt Stocks?

Gary Gordon — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 08:54:29 -0500

Key Levels in the Dow and S&P 500

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 08:52:56 -0500

Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 face price challenges at critical levels currently, particularly that of the rising 20d EMA.

Let’s take a look at these levels to watch and perhaps develop trades on any breakout from these levels.

First, the simple S&P 500 Daily Chart:

A Troubling Trend For Income & Spending Continues

Jim Picerno — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 08:46:54 -0500

American consumers are spending less and saving more. That's the message in yesterday's personal income and consumption report for December from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That's a healthy development for household balance sheets and, in the long run, it's a plus for the economy. But if you're looking for a fresh sign that the economy will avoid a recession, it's not clear that these numbers will suffice.

If Equities Fall

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 04:40:04 -0500

Respecting Recent Strength

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 01:17:00 -0500

The most recent push higher in the S&P 500 was relatively strong with daily RSI moving above 70. The 2011 chart below shows we may need a weak bounce sometime in the coming days if stocks are to move significantly lower. Notice the low levels of RSI (top) and MACD Histogram (blue bars) when the S&P 500 tried to recover from early weakness in a reversal pattern.

Beyond XLY: Considering Consumer Discretionary ETFs

Michael Johnston — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 10:29:35 -0500

Though the year is still very young, 2012 has gotten off to a promising start for investors. Major stock indexes have generally climbed higher throughout the first few weeks thanks to a number of encouraging data releases and reduced anxiety over the potential fallout from the European debt crisis [see also Early ETF Stars of 2012].

“Dr. Copper” Advises a Return to Chile

Gary Gordon — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 10:28:24 -0500

Copper is one of the world’s most popular metals. It is used in everything from water pipes to radiators to air conditioning systems. Some will say that the industrial metal posesses a Ph.D. in economics… it is that critical to world GDP growth.

One country alone is responsible for about 40% of the world’s copper reserves and roughly 35% of copper exporting. That country is Chile.

They're at it Again

Kathy Lien — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 10:22:17 -0500

EUR: WHAT TO EXPECT FROM EU SUMMIT

Markets Heading for a Crossroads

Bob Lang — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 08:30:10 -0500

Another Crossroads For The New Abnormal?

Jim Picerno — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 07:45:53 -0500

Gold ETF Mass Exodus

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 03:38:14 -0500

Gold is enjoying an awesome January, rallying strongly out of its oversold late-December lows. But last month’s hyper-pessimistic sentiment deserves some reflection before it totally fades from memory. One of the core theses of the bears resolutely predicting sub-$1400 gold prices soon was the notion that there would be widespread liquidations in the flagship GLD gold ETF, a mass exodus of capital.

US Economic Growth Accelerates Modestly In Fourth Quarter

Jim Picerno — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 11:08:53 -0500

Hello, Portugal, Meet Greece

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 11:05:31 -0500

Disappointing US Data Triggers Turn in Equities and Currencies

Kathy Lien — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 11:03:09 -0500

Oh, CNDA!

Gary Gordon — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 08:33:48 -0500

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper isn’t too pleased that Obama rejected the Keystone XL pipeline, a vessel that would have shipped crude from Alberta’s oil sands to the Gulf of Mexico. However, on Thursday, Harper described the exporting of Canadian energy as a “national priority” and pledged to fast-track regulatory approval.

The Dreaded Creeper Trend

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 09:31:43 -0500

One of the main activities that trip up traders, especially new traders, is the concept of continual price movement in one direction without meaningful pullbacks – also known as “powerful trends,” “creeper trends,” or “positive feedback loops.”

Let’s take a look at the current situation and put it in the context of prior S&P 500 day-over-day one directional movement.

First, the hourly S&P 500 pure price chart:

Today’s Scooby Doo Open Marks Emotional Extremes

David Grandey — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 03:33:31 -0500

Taking a Breath

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 05:19:59 -0500

Building Debt

Michael Pettis — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 07:09:28 -0500

The Fed Role in the Economy: Now Bigger. Now Better?

Jeff Miller — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 09:08:41 -0500

The Fed made history yesterday, achieving a new level of policy-making transparency.

Greece, Europe and the FED

Ray Barros — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 09:03:48 -0500

Since late 2010, a sentiment has developed in the US markets that the FED will shield the US Stock Market from any overwhelming collapse. Its solution to print as much money as needed until conditions return to normal. As the 197o’s showed, this is a mistaken belief. The piper to be paid is inflation.

Inflation? What inflation?

An Open Letter to the Bernanke

David Merkel — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 08:43:48 -0500

There are two things that I want to comment on Fed policy this evening: Transparency is overrated, and Bernanke does not understand savings.

Transparency is Overrated

Ever heard of the phrase “data overload?” Greenspan would do that verbally in his testimony to Congress, providing them with more data than they needed, and occasionally contradictory so that each side could quote what they wanted.

Precious Metals are Reclaiming Their Shine

Gary Gordon — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 08:35:52 -0500

It wasn’t that long ago that gold bears were sticking a fork in the yellow metal. And they had several reasons. The $300+ per ounce price drop was not attracting tons of bargain-hunters. What’s more, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) had fallen below its 200-day trendline for the first time since 2009.

Currency Outlook After Yesterday's FOMC Meeting

Kathy Lien — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 08:30:19 -0500

The Zurich Axioms

Jeff White — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 08:10:26 -0500

Financials Soar on the Possibility of a Romney Presidency

Gary Gordon — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 08:56:49 -0500

An International Bond ETF Roadmap

Michael Johnston — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 07:42:03 -0500

Just a few years ago there were only a handful of bond ETFs available to U.S. investors, and almost all of them focused on securities from U.S. issuers denominated in U.S. dollars. One of the most noteworthy innovations to shape the ETF industry over the last several years has been a significant growth in international bond products; as issuers have worked around concentration-related issues and other hurdles, the universe of bond ETPs targeting markets beyond U.S. borders has grown tremendously.

Will December's Economic Momentum Survive The Month's Final Updates?

Jim Picerno — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 07:36:12 -0500

The full profile of the U.S. economy for December is nearly complete, and so far the numbers continue to look mildly encouraging. It’s hardly a perfect report card, and we’re still waiting for some key numbers. But based on the data released so far, it appears that growth had the upper hand in the last month of 2011.

That's the Spirit!

Michael Kahn — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 07:31:34 -0500

No, this is not another of my now famous rants against the airlines and Spirit Air an particular. No, this is about the spirit of the analysis of charts. You can check out an old blog post on this topic here. This is how it began:

How the Dollar Might React to the FOMC

Kathy Lien — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 06:44:25 -0500

Monetary policy announcements are one of the most important event risks for the forex markets. The reason why we follow individual pieces of economic data so closely is because of the role it plays in a central bank’s monetary policy.

Amazon (AMZN) Chart on Two Timeframes

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 06:36:48 -0500

Amazon’s (AMZN) chart structure is creating an interesting breaking point of tension between the higher and lower timeframes.

While the daily chart argues for potential reversal higher, the weekly chart shows a barrier of overhead resistance that must be broken before a reversal higher can take place.

It’s a good example of how to incorporate two timeframes in real-time, so let’s take a look at AMZN:

Intermediate-Term Highs Prior to Fed Days

Rob Hanna — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 06:18:09 -0500

Wednesday is a Fed Day. As I have discussed many times, Fed Days generally carry an upside tendency. But this tendency is greatly impacted by certain variables. A large collection of these variables may be found here on the blog under the “Fed Day”label. And many more may be found in the “Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days”.

Becton Dickinson & Co. (BDX): Another Undervauled Gem

Chuck Carnevale — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 08:59:29 -0500

One of the great long-term benefits that a recession brings is the opportunity to invest in extremely high-quality companies at low valuations. This is especially true of companies that have proven themselves as being highly recession-resistant on an operating basis. In other words, companies whose businesses remain strong even when economic times are difficult, as they have recently been.

Against Simple Valuation Metrics

David Merkel — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 08:31:03 -0500

There have been a lot of articles dealing with use of corporate free cash flow lately:

Dividends — get them, are they sustainable?
Buybacks — do they add value or not?
Acquisitions — are they overpaying? What are the synergies?

But you never hear about the last one — internal investment for organic growth. There is a simple reason why — it is silent as night. No one makes announcements on it. If done properly, it is as quiet as a plant growing.

Breaking Down Three Of The Most “Undervalued” ETFs

Gary Gordon — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 07:43:24 -0500

Morningstar used to be a one-trick pony. The company rated mutual funds… and they weren’t particularly good at it.

For instance, in 1999, nearly every investment in the Janus stable held 4 or 5 stars. The primary reason? Janus products demonstrated superior performance on a relative basis in most stock categories over popular time frames (e.g., 1 year, 3 year, etc.).

Tactical ETF Review: 01.24.12

Jim Picerno — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 07:41:10 -0500

Put/Call Ratio Sends Mixed Signals

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 06:40:09 -0500

Risk Rally Losing Steam?

Kathy Lien — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 06:00:11 -0500

There's Your Answer

Gary Kaltbaum — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 06:20:23 -0500

I’ve never seen so many “blah” earnings reports in stocks that go higher. Seriously. Go figure.

We’ll call it a stalemate day. But out of days like today, there are some things I’m seeing that I want you to know about.

Last Time Bullishness Hit These Levels…

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 09:47:17 -0500

Zero Hedge posted a TrimTabs video on January 20. TrimTabs reports on supply and demand of shares of stock and money available for investment. Some interesting highlights from the video:

Delicate Relations: Markets & Macro

Jim Picerno — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 09:38:59 -0500

Major Index ETFs Breakout! (IWM, IVV, DIA, QQQ, SPY)

John Nyaradi — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 09:38:18 -0500

Bond Funds Looking to Break Out

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 09:35:35 -0500

Following up with my prior inter-market post this week “Something’s Gotta Give,” let’s take a look at the sharp down-move that developed since then as seen in bond funds IEF and TLT.

Let’s start with the 7 to 10-year Treasury Fund IEF:

The Week Ahead: The State of the Union, Bernanke, Earnings

Jeff Miller — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 09:29:20 -0500

Normally the State of the Union Address would be the focal point for the week's events. In a general sense this is still true, but our focus in this weekly series is much narrower: What will influence markets?

This SOTU speech is unlikely to have a big market effect. The political lines have been drawn. We can all hope for initiatives that will generate some compromise, but I am not hopeful. I expect themes related to the major national problems - -housing and jobs.

Markets Are Stepping Up

Bob Lang — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 08:04:59 -0500

Gold-Stock Upleg Cycles

Adam Hamilton — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 07:59:58 -0500

Despite gold’s powerful secular bull over the past decade, gold stocks remain vexing to investors and speculators. Though this metal’s miners have yielded truly colossal bull-to-date gains, they failed to leverage the record-high gold prices seen in much of 2011. So naturally traders aren’t very enthusiastic about this sector at the moment. But they sure would be if they understood the gold-stock upleg cycles.

Fed To ‘Hold Off’ On QE

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 07:50:39 -0500

Net1 UEPS Technologies (UEPS) Rewards Undervaluation

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 09:08:56 -0500

Why the Average Investor is Bamboozled by Recession Forecasts

Jeff Miller — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 08:52:29 -0500

I have a problem. I cannot teach my research methods course in one short article - -not even the undergraduate version.

Since the topic is so important I want to do it right by conveying the most important features. While readers of this article may not be able to write a critique of various research findings, you might develop a strong instinct for what is right.

Background

Have Profit Takers Set Their Sights On “Top 200″ ETFs?

Gary Gordon — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 08:47:05 -0500

With the S&P 500 garnering 4.6% in less than 3 weeks, are money managers becoming skittish? If hundreds of millions flowing out of a few select ETFs is any indication, then the answer is, “Yes.”

On 1/19/2012, institutional advisers used their block accounts to dump roughly $120 million of iShares Russell Top 200 Growth (IWY) and $80 million of iShares Russell Top 200 Value (IWX). In a single trading session, IWY shed 1/4 of its total net assets under management; similarly, IWX lost more than 1/2 of the assets in its coffers.

The Enduring Power Of Passive Asset Allocation

Jim Picerno — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 08:33:27 -0500

Euro Headed Towards 1.30

Kathy Lien — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 08:31:15 -0500

P/E Reversals May Identify Sectors with the Most Promise

Gary Gordon — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 08:01:34 -0500

In 2011, S&P 500 profits expanded 15%. And yet, the benchmark’s price finished in the very same place that it started the year. In essence, since prices flat-lined and earnings experienced double-digit growth, a fundamentally inexpensive stock market via the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) became even cheaper.

The most common reason cited for P/E contraction in 2011? The Euro Zone debt crisis.

Something's Gotta Give

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 09:01:04 -0500

If you use Intermarket or Cross-Market Analysis in your trading or investment decisions, you’ve probably noticed something very strange over the last few months.

Let’s take a look at “What’s Going Wrong” from a classic Intermarket perspective which leads us to “What’s Gotta Give” in terms of a building reversal.

First, the closer perspective of five Cross-Market quick charts:

Buying with Cautious Confidence

Dock David Treece — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 08:45:09 -0500

An Optimist's Optimist On The Economy

Jim Picerno — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 07:44:00 -0500

Schwing!

Michael Kahn — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 07:31:06 -0500

If you are a Wayne and Garth fan, you know what the title means.

I took a look at the leading sectors in the market today (Wednesday) and just scrolled through their charts. Nothing fancy. What I saw in the home builders sure looked like it needed "schwing!" as its caption. Same for semis. And electrical components.

There are Problems, But...

Gary Kaltbaum — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 07:27:54 -0500

First off, strong dayon Wednesday , any way you want to cut it. Number two, what I have been doing here is to talk sectors with you, instead of talking markets. There is a reason. The best moves have been stuff off the bottom. What I’ve been hoping for was that this would be a durable rally. What I have been hoping for is that leadership shows up.

Euro Bouncing from Support

Kathy Lien — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 07:23:28 -0500

What's Up with the Financials?

Gary Gordon — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 08:38:44 -0500

In January, some of the “risk on” attitude has favored the sector that many investors love to hate. That’s right… financial stocks are back on a roll.

That said, investors may be “smart” to dislike the financial segment. Wells Fargo notwithstanding, most of the banks have put forward terrible Q4 earnings and revenue numbers. The forward guidance has been equally sketchy. And the uncertainty surrounding European financial institutions will likely drag on financial corporations around the globe at least one time here in 2012.

The Top 25 Best Dividend Challengers To Buy Today

Chuck Carnevale — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 08:32:02 -0500

Data Check: The Small-Cap & Value Factors

Jim Picerno — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 08:10:46 -0500

Should You Chase the Market Up Here?

David Grandey — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 07:47:49 -0500

Back at Work

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 05:00:30 -0500

Will The U.S. Decouple From Europe?

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 10:34:50 -0500

January 17, 2012

The term decouple is often used on Wall Street to explain something that is difficult to wrap your arms around. In late 2007/early 2008 we were told the emerging markets would decouple from the mortgage mess based in the United States. In the video below, we explore:

Important S&P 500 levels to watch on the upside and downside.
How the decoupling theory played out in 2008.
The technical state of global markets.
Monthly Demark counts.

Will gold regain its safe haven status in 2012?

Clif Droke — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 10:24:24 -0500

Credit Crunch Easing? Asia ETFs With Large Financial Weightings Will Benefit

Gary Gordon — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 10:09:50 -0500

LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) is the interest rate that fellow European banks will charge other banks. Put another way, it is the rate at which a financial institution in the region can borrow money.

It's That Time Again - Earnings!

Bob Lang — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 10:06:52 -0500

Positioning for 2012: Don't forget about stocks

Jeff Miller — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 09:45:22 -0500

For the last three years I have participated in a special interview series at Seeking Alpha. Jonathan Liss comes up with questions that suit both the times and reader interest. I think that readers of "A Dash" may find the discussion to be interesting, and may wish to add some comments or questions of their own.

A Decade's Worth of Scary Charts

Gary Kaltbaum — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 09:43:02 -0500

January Op-Ex Week Has Been Tough

Rob Hanna — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 09:41:57 -0500
January op-ex week has been a tough week for the market since 1999. Interesting about January op-ex week is that it often occurs in conjunction with Martin Luther King Day. Below is a list of the last 13 January op-ex weeks with their performance results. Note that some of these weeks contained four trading days and some contained five. In either case the market was assumed to have been “bought” the Friday before op-ex Friday and “sold” on op-ex Friday.

Europe Holds the Key

John Nyaradi — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 09:26:08 -0500

Week Two of 2012 was strong but Week Three and beyond will depend upon action and news from Europe.

The bulls were largely in charge this week with continued positive economic reports and corporate earnings reports in America. Friday the 13th however was truly unlucky for Europe as S&P went on another “credit downgrade rampage” which wrecked havoc across the pond. Major European ETFs took losses in the neighborhood of 2% as the news, while not surprising, was very poorly received.

FX: Rose Colored Glasses

Kathy Lien — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 09:20:34 -0500

Is The Yield Curve Still A Reliable Signal Of Recession Risk?

Jim Picerno — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 09:17:11 -0500

Anemic US Data, Euro Selling Off Quickly

Kathy Lien — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 11:36:25 -0500

Keep Your Feet on the Ground

Gary Kaltbaum — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 10:49:47 -0500

Best Recession Forecaster: Robert F. Dieli

Jeff Miller — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 09:44:34 -0500

Since last May I have been reviewing the record of those who forecast the business cycle. I developed a stringent list of requirements, "Jeff's Acid Test," and I frequently invited nominations. Here were the stated requirements:

42 Dividend Contenders for Above-Average Total Return

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 09:36:17 -0500

If no trade reversal now, then when?

Michael Pettis — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 09:00:28 -0500

Europe’s underlying problem is not budget deficits or even unsustainable debt. These are mainly symptoms. The real problem with Europe is the huge divergence in costs between the core and the periphery – in the past decade costs between Germany and some of the peripheral countries have diverged by anywhere from 20% to 40%. This divergence has made the latter uncompetitive and has resulted in the massive trade imbalances within Europe.

Dividend Champions a Rare Undervalued Opportunity

Chuck Carnevale — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 09:40:14 -0500

We believe that based on earnings, 2012 is starting out with the stock market undervalued. We believe in the long-term ownership of great businesses purchased at sound and attractive valuations. Consequently, we view the stock market as merely the store that we shop at in order to buy the businesses we want to own.

Evaluating Recession Forecasts: What Every Investor Must Know

Jeff Miller — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 09:32:04 -0500

For investors who believe that stocks eventually reflect the fundamental strength of the companies, understanding the business cycle is crucial. Since popular sentiment and stock prices are often excessively negative about economic prospects, there is great opportunity for those who can get this right.

Stick With Dividends

Gary Gordon — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 09:26:22 -0500

The headline unemployment number has fallen to 8.5% from a “Great Recession” high that is well north of 9%. Many say that the trend is heading in the right direction. And the media are beginning to tout the executive branch of government as having contributed to ”job creation.”

European Bond Auctions Improve

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 09:08:07 -0500

Spain and Italy auctioned off one- and two-year bonds today with improved results. While the picture looks better this morning, we need to keep in mind:

Musings on Market Analysis

Michael Kahn — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 09:04:46 -0500

Technical analysts have been fighting the ignorami and kool aid drinkers who profess that there is no value in looking in the past to try to predict the future. Tell that to the patrons of your local OTB as they pour over racing forms to check their mudders. Or your favorite Wall Street analyst as she talks about the trend in earnings (uh, trend - that a technical analysis term).

Market Okay as Long as Financials Hold Up

Gary Kaltbaum — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 08:52:51 -0500

We came into this year and I said to you, “We’ll see what happens, but I’m worried about January.” Well, of course, January’s been up…so far.

New High, Unfilled Up Gaps, but Weak Finishes

Rob Hanna — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 08:16:40 -0500
While the final numbers were good this Tuesday and the SPY left an unfilled upside gap, some traders are concerned that the SPY finished in the lower part of its daily range. Historically, though, unfilled gaps and 20-day intraday highs as was put in on Tuesday have been followed by much more positive action when the rally closed meekly. Tuesday's action actually appears bullish. This is something I examined just last week in the 1/4/12 Subscriber Letter. Below is an excerpt from that letter.

Time To Take A Bite Out Of Apple?

David Grandey — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 05:43:54 -0500

Off the Beaten Path

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 05:42:15 -0500

USD: Doves Outnumber Hawks at the Fed

Kathy Lien — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 10:34:17 -0500

USD: MORE DOVES THAN HAWKS AT THE FED

Italy Funds Issue Severe Storm Warning

Gary Gordon — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 10:24:12 -0500

Approximately one month ago, Standard & Poor’s placed 15 European nations on review for potential credit downgrades. In spite of the implications, Italian bonds began to climb and their yields began to fall, as many were hopeful that an upcoming summit between European Union leaders might put an end to the region’s spreading debt crisis.

Indeed, on 12/5/2011, newfound enthusiasm pushed Italian 10-year yields down to manageable rates, somewhere below 6%. The S&P 500 benchmark for U.S. stocks also gained on hopes for the EU meet-n-greet, rising to 1257.

Crunch Time For The Business Cycle

Jim Picerno — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 10:16:49 -0500

If there's one corner of the economy that concerns me more than others, it's the recent trend in disposable personal income (DPI). As I discussed last month with the update of the November data, the falling pace of annual growth is starting to look troubling on this front.

3 Ways to Grow from Trading Adversity

Jeff White — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 10:14:49 -0500

Dean Karnazes runs like a man possessed. He’s an ultramarathoner, which means he goes beyond marathon distances – sometimes a lot farther. He once ran 50 marathons in 50 states in 50 consecutive days. Apparently, the dude loves pain.

In his book Confessions of an All-Night Runner, he makes the following statement:

Knees and Toes or Double-Top?

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 10:10:36 -0500

With traders focused on the S&P 500 at the round-number reference level of 1,300, let’s take a quick look at two competing classic price patterns that have formed into this critical level.

Is the S&P 500 completing a short-term “Double Top” reversal pattern or an “Inverse Head and Shoulders” continuation pattern?

Let’s look at these developments and plot classic targets and expectations.

First, the bigger Daily Picture:

Looking Under the Hood

Gary Kaltbaum — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 10:08:23 -0500

Here’s the good news. The markets were up yesterday. But I gotta tell you. I actually thought the market would be up 200 points today. We had one of those big gaps to the upside and I’m thinking “here we go.” And it didn’t happen. I don’t know if that’s bad or not. We gapped up and we filled some of the gap. I’m not so sure that’s bad.

Stocks Vulnerable To Bad News

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 09:17:35 -0500

Portrait of a Short Squeeze

Jeff White — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 10:32:10 -0500

WTW was in a clear downtrend. The stock had failed in early-November to clear late-October resistance, and subsequently reversed lower. Each bounce was sold since then, with a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Why I Use TeleChart

Relative Strength Rankings Favor Value Over Growth

Gary Gordon — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 09:01:46 -0500

How do “value” gurus determine worth? Bill Miller spent 30 years at the helm of Legg Mason Value (LMVTX), buying companies that he believed were deeply discounted. This often meant that he would purchase shares of a company where the market had priced the shares less than what was on the accounting books; sometimes, he might acquire shares for less than the cash that the company had on its savings ledger.

My Bespoke Roundtable Answers

Jeff Miller — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 10:27:56 -0500

For the last few years I have participated in two different "year ahead" preview articles -- one for The Bespoke Investment Group and one for Seeking Alpha. These are both excellent resources -- each valuable because of the specific approach taken.

Cooking the (Jobs) Books

Ray Barros — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 08:37:53 -0500

The stats of some countries, e.g. China, we just can’t believe. To get a handle on their affairs, we rely on anecdotal evidence or on numbers the Central Government fails to hide. When I first started trading in the early 70’s, the one country’s stats I felt I could rely on was that of the US. But, this is rapidly becoming a thing of the past.

Let’s take the Non-Farm Payroll on Friday. In particular, I want to look at the job number and the unemployment rate.

Job Number

The Great Debate Rolls On

Jim Picerno — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 09:33:35 -0500

The economy appears to be on the mend, but the great debate about recession risk in 2012 is in no danger of fading. The labor market may be reviving, but that’s not enough—at least not yet—to convince some analysts that the danger has passed.

The Real Reason for this Morning's Gap

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 09:10:29 -0500

Some will tell you futures are higher this morning due to Alcoa’s earnings. Keep in mind, Alcoa was down in the after hours session following Monday’s earnings announcement. What is the primary driver of this morning’s pop in the S&P futures? You guessed it….hope for more stimulus (a.k.a. money printing). From Bloomberg:

Be Careful with the Dollar ETF

Michael Kahn — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 09:07:38 -0500

You've Got to Start Somewhere

Gary Kaltbaum — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 09:03:00 -0500

I’ve been agnostic on the market in that I’ve told you, “I think we can go higher.”

Stats After a Strong Run into the New Year

Editorial Staff — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 08:51:56 -0500

Market Under Compression

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 07:40:27 -0500

The S&P 500 is compressing between a shorter-term and broader consolidation pattern, so it could make for an interesting breakout resolution yet to come.

Let’s take a look at the bigger picture of Market Structure and then zoom-in on the intraday structure to note key reference levels.

First, the broader picture starting with 2011:

What We Want to See

Ray Barros — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 07:35:46 -0500

One of the pitfalls traders face is “seeing what we wish to see”; and often, the market will accommodate us.

Take the S&P last week - the price action had enough signs to satisfy both bull and bear.

We started with the seasonal bullish start on Jan 3. The bulls were clearly in control. Thereafter the picture is less clear.

On the bull sign we can argue that:

a) After Jan 3, the S&P attempted on each of the three days (especially Jan 4 and Jan 5) to sell-off and failed.

New Year, New Tone?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 06:30:02 -0500

The theme has been the same for many weeks: Reasonable US data, bad news from Europe.

We start each trading day looking at the latest headline and how the Euro is trading. While the US economy has shown improvement, the European story is a huge overhang. This is mostly because no one knows how to quantify the possible impacts. The story plays in three different ways:

Is Biotech Really A “Can’t Miss”?

Gary Gordon — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 06:18:45 -0500

Throughout the legislative battle over health care reform, health care stocks underachieved. The uncertainty over how health sub-segments might be affected – devices, providers, “Big Pharma,” biotech, retail and services – led many investors to maintain a hands-off approach.

As January Goes...

Bob Lang — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 06:05:09 -0500

The dueling forces of 2012

Clif Droke — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 05:46:14 -0500

Cheap Gold Stocks 2

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 12:28:21 -0500

After a Long Hiatus, Wal-Mart (WMT) is a Strong Buy

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 11:06:20 -0500

We are going to start the new year off by looking at Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) which we believe is a blue-chip growth and dividend income selection that can be purchased at a sound and attractive valuation. Additionally, we offer Wal-Mart with its historical business results and price performance as an excellent example extolling the principles of sound investing versus speculation. We believe the lessons that this analysis offers are both important and invaluable to investors.

Inverse VIX Heats Up

Michael Johnston — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 10:52:27 -0500

Yields and Sentiment Flash Warnings

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 10:40:42 -0500

Numerous markets and time frames still point to lower lows in stocks later in 2012. We believe the S&P 500 could push above 1,285 toward the 1,300 - 1,343 range. However, that move may be retraced fairly quickly, based on DeMark counts, increasing bullish sentiment, and still-elevated Italian bond yields. The negative implications of a 10-year Italian bond yielding 7% were outlined at the 00:29 and 13:00 marks of a December 18 video.

Strong Closes, but Modest Gains

Rob Hanna — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 10:32:21 -0500
The study below was from the Quantifinder yesterday and was last seen in the 1/26/11 subscriber letter. It suggests that when SPY closes strong (in the top 10% of its range) but still only manages a small gain on the day, that the next day has a downside tendency. Stats are updated.

Reading the Tea Leaves

Jeff Miller — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 09:13:56 -0500

'Tis the season for making forecasts -- all because of the calendar. It is an opportunity to look foolish, or to gain edge. This article will illustrate both. Here are the ways to go wrong:

Opine about subjects where you have no edge
Pick a time frame unsuited to your methods
Fail to admit the range of uncertainty

There is annual fun where we can (correctly) criticize the forecasters. Here are some excellent takes on the subject:

Dividend Growth ETF May Offer The Best Of Both Worlds

Gary Gordon — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 08:40:38 -0500

Buying-n-holding every investment asset is detrimental in secular bear markets. Granted, one can debate whether or not we’ve been witnessing a series of smaller bull markets within a grizzlier picture. However, there’s no denying the benefits of actively reducing downside risk prior to (and during) the 2000-2002 tech bubble or the 2008-2009 credit collapse.

At the same time, investors are always searching for investments that they may hold forever. (And if that’s not possible… 5 years instead of 5 months!)

An Object in Motion...

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 07:05:22 -0500

The fact that the S&P 500 “did nothing” in 2011 fails to take into account the performance of the individual sectors of the stock market, some of which returned as much as 15% in 2011.

Let’s review Sector Performance in 2011, learn insights into the Sector Rotation Model, and see where capital flowed during the “lackluster” 2011.

First, the classic Sector Performance Chart for 2011:

Look at That Breakout

John Nyaradi — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 05:47:17 -0500

Significant break outs in all major U.S. indexes point to possibility of higher prices ahead.

Is The Fed Bailing Out Europe?

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 06:06:48 -0500

Woozy Canary

Michael Kahn — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 09:35:24 -0500

In this morning's Quick Takes Pro newsletter, I wrote up a few of last year's leaders that actually fell significantly on a day when the Dow came roaring out of the gate (mixed metaphor - horses do not roar - but you get the point). Here is one of them - MasterCard.

Covered Calls Finish Strong in 2011

Bill Luby — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 09:29:08 -0500

Off to a Hot Start

Ray Barros — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 07:25:00 -0500

The world stock markets started 2012 with a bang. Seasonally this is what the first day of the New Year usually brings. I am more interested to see what today brings. Today will mark the end of the ‘Xmas Rally’ period, I use it together with the January effect to give me a handle on the direction of the first quarter.

Based on my view of the fundamentals, I am bearish for 2012, looking for a bear market to start no later than the third quarter and perhaps as early as the beginning of the second:

Oil-Related Energy Outshines Other Natural Resources ETFs

Gary Gordon — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 09:23:50 -0500

The S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) began 2012 with a bang, collecting 1.6% in the initial session. Yet it was far from the most impressive showing on Tuesday, January 3.

Consider the performance of some of the castaways from 2011. Market Vectors Nuclear Energy (NLR) rocketed 2.4%. PowerShares Global Water (PIO) swam upstream for a formidable 3.2%. And Market Vectors Coal (KOL) corralled a smoking hot 5.6%.

The Elusive January Effect

Jim Picerno — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 09:21:12 -0500

Euro/Dollar Leaning Bullish Short-Term

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 08:11:32 -0500

On December 28, we noted action in the euro and U.S. dollar would influence risk assets. The U.S. Dollar ETF (UUP) has failed to recapture 22.62 and closed below its 20-day moving average today, which may point to further gains in stocks over the coming days/weeks.

I’m Worried about January

Gary Kaltbaum — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 08:09:18 -0500

We’re in January. Keep in mind that in January, there’s a lot of positioning going on.

We gapped up about 260 DOW points today.

As I’ve told you on this show. I’m worried about January. Let me give you some numbers:

Canadian Dollar Outlook

Kathy Lien — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 08:08:05 -0500

Junior-Gold Carnage

Scott Wright — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 08:25:30 -0500

The Year in VIX and Volatility (2011)

Bill Luby — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 08:02:57 -0500

One of the most-loved charts I assemble each year is my retrospective look at the year in volatility. I already touched on some of the highlights of event volatility in text form in Expectations, Surprises and Fear in 2011, but this is one case in which I believe a picture does a better job of telling the story in the context of a timeline for the entire year.

Always Look to the Left

Jeff White — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 12:01:29 -0500

A friend of mine recently mentioned that the area to the right of price is the only place on a chart where you make money. He’s absolutely right. But I’d add that by also looking to the left, you can save money as well.

Back to Work

Jeff Miller — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 11:54:08 -0500

The investing community goes back to work on Tuesday for a short week that could see plenty of action.

Everyone is doing a review of 2011, so I tried to do something really different -- The Year that Wasn't! Please take a look at what might have happened (but didn't) and offer your own take. I think the theme is worth consideration, so I might do it again if there is interest.

Bullish Head Fake Possible

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 11:40:16 -0500

The bias for the first few weeks of 2012 may be bullish due to seasonal factors and recent market intervention from central banks. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) balance sheet expanded at an unprecedented rate late in 2011, which impacts market dynamics. Serious fundamental problems remain in the form of debt and demographics.

What an Incredible Chart

David Grandey — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 11:34:44 -0500

Moving Forward

Bob Lang — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 11:33:13 -0500

Charting Google (GOOG) to New Highs

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 11:23:45 -0500

Will history repeat or will this time be different?

That’s the famous question we’re all asking right now as Google shares break to new multi-year recovery highs not seen since late 2007.

Let’s peek at the Weekly chart, note the key level to watch, and then compare that with what’s happening right now on the Daily Chart.

What’s In Store For The US Dollar In 2012?

Kathy Lien — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 11:18:51 -0500

Rules to Live By

Gary Kaltbaum — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 11:02:10 -0500

On my special holiday show, I’m going to go over rules – MONEY RULES…INVESTMENT RULES that most people don’t live by…that most people ignore.

HAVE SELL RULES

The first time I met William O’Neil and David Ryan in the early ’90s, I remember asking both of them, “What’s the most important thing people need to know?” They said:

1% Gaps To Start A Month

Rob Hanna — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 10:54:49 -0500

With futures up over 1.5% as I type pre-market, we’re seeing an unusually large gap up to start the year. Below is a list of the 8 other instances since 2003 that SPY gapped up at least 1% to start the month.

Slim’s Predictions for 2012

Steve Miller — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 10:19:13 -0500

A European Vacation?

Jeff Miller — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 12:58:55 -0500

In the absence of fresh bad news from Europe, stocks managed some solid gains last week. Our trading model, Felix, reflected greater confidence than most traders and investors (including me).

As noted last week I plan to focus on year-end matters, as well as enjoying time with family and friends. This is a somewhat abbreviated version of the regular weekly update. I want to provide continuity on the indicator updates, as well as capture important events in real time.

There was plenty of news, but I will highlight only a few items.

Ten Areas Looking for a Repeat Performance in 2012

Michael Johnston — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 12:30:01 -0500

This time last year, investors were generally thrilled with the performances of their portfolios, which had continued to bounce back nicely from the devastating recession that hit in 2008. Unfortunately, few are feeling the same sense of accomplishment as 2011 draws to a close; this year has been frustrating in that a few large, swift sell-offs erased any gains that had accumulated, leaving many risky asset classes in negative territory for the year [see also Checking In: Top 5 Equity ETFs of 2010].

Will An Emerging Market Bull Reward Patient Investors In 2012?

Gary Gordon — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 12:23:43 -0500

The investing story for most of the 21st century has been the prominence of emerging market stocks. In a world where industrializing countries have been growing at 3x the pace of developed world counterparts, and where emerging country debt remained remarkably tame, investors began ramping up their overseas holdings.

It worked remarkably well; that is, it worked until the 2008 U.S. mortgage collapse and the 2011 European debt crisis.

Recession Crazes

Adam Hamilton — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 08:51:40 -0500

Recession is a four-letter word in the financial markets, striking terror into the hearts of everyone. And if reports since August are to be believed, there is a recession hiding behind every tree. For a myriad of reasons, economists have argued we are due to plunge into the next one any day now. But speculators and investors have to understand how recession talk is spawned, sometimes leading to recession crazes.

Hedging a Bearish Bet

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 08:50:04 -0500

As we have stated for some time, the S&P 500 may make another push higher toward 1,320. Price closed above a trendline dating back to the summer highs on Friday. Therefore, the odds of additional gains in the coming weeks have improved. In the chart below, compare the blue arrows to the green arrows. Notice how the breakout in early October coincided with a bullish move in the momentum indicator Williams % R. Friday’s break higher also saw Williams % R move into bullish territory, which decreases the odds of a false breakout.

The Risks (and Rewards) of Modeling

Jim Picerno — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 08:47:20 -0500

Natural Gas Exporting May Fuel Energy Sector

Gary Gordon — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 10:23:51 -0500

Economically sensitive sectors like energy failed to generate investor enthusiasm in 2011. Fears of a mammoth depression in Europe as well as a slowdown in China hampered share prices of mainstays from Anadarko Petroleum (APC) to Southwestern Energy (SWN).

European Debt Is ‘Obviously Unserviceable’

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 10:17:23 -0500

The Boys Gotta Get Paid

Gary Kaltbaum — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 10:14:13 -0500

5 days left of trading in the year.

I listen back through my radio shows and, man, do I sound like a cynic these days. But I have to tell you that the cynicism has been earned by the people that should be blasted.

I’ve told you that, the last 10 out of 10 years, the market has been up from Veterans Day until the end of the year…as well as 22 out of the past 24 years.

S&P 500 Symmetrical Triangle Update

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 09:12:00 -0500

Gold recently broke from its larger Symmetrical Triangle daily chart pattern, but the S&P 500 (Stock Market) hasn’t followed suit yet.

Let’s update the current “Bigger Picture” Triangle Price Pattern, note key boundaries, and what to expect next.

First, the S&P 500 standard Daily Chart:

What We Need is a Little Conviction

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 08:17:11 -0500

The market feels like it wants to push higher, but the trend of lower highs and waning momentum needs to change (see below). Some better than expected economic news or bright spot in Europe is probably needed to give the S&P 500 a decent chance of pushing above its 200-day and toward the 1,314 to 1,340 range.

Hedging Currency Risk

Gary Gordon — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 08:05:14 -0500

Throughout the last 10 years, world currencies gained remarkable ground on the U.S. dollar. In fact, it wasn’t that long ago when the cover of The Economist featured George Washington with his wig on fire; the former president is piloting a “greenback in flames” as it nose-dives towards Earth.

The Dark Side of Macro Expectations

Jim Picerno — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 08:01:29 -0500

Risk-Based Liquidity

David Merkel — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 07:59:06 -0500

When there is financial failure, it comes as a result of illiquidity. Now, truly, these parties are insolvent, because they took the risk of not being able to pay cash when it was due. Illiquidity and insolvency are really the same thing, though many obfuscate.
If you can’t pay cash, it doesn’t matter what your assets are worth in “normal” times. Banks should have planned in advance to make sure liquidity was always adequate, rather than doing the usual borrow short, lend long, that they usually do.

When 90% Down Days Are Followed By 90% Up Days

Rob Hanna — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 07:53:00 -0500

After seeing over 90% of the volume come to the downside on Monday, Tuesday registered a 90%+ upside volume day. A 90% down followed by a 90% up day is something that was never seen from 1970 – 2006. But this is the 10th time we’ve seen it happen since the beginning of 2007. Below I have listed the previous 9 and shown how the SPX has fared the following day.

Window Dressing in Full Effect

Gary Kaltbaum — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 07:38:15 -0500

The markets were acting poorly coming into Tuesday. The financials were really getting whacked. Bank of America dropped under $5.00 for a little while. There were new lows on a lot of banks, and then yesterday…we gap up, finishing up 330 points, Nasdaq up 70 I think it was.

What led? THE BANKS.

Good bye 2011

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 07:32:03 -0500

Is The Housing Market Poised For A True Recovery This Time?

Jim Picerno — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 07:26:45 -0500

The Mark-Up Has Begun

Gary Kaltbaum — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 07:24:15 -0500

In the past few weeks, I’ve been telling you that the end of the year has a tremendous track record.

The last 10 out of 10 years, from Veterans Day until the end of the year – UP.

The past 22 out of the 24 years – UP.

Digging Deep for the Bull

Gary Gordon — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 07:09:39 -0500

The prospects for corporate earnings haven’t mattered much to the markets in 2011. Instead, European debt news drives stocks dramatically higher or lower.

Last week, stock assets tanked on less-than-anticipated demand for Italian bonds. This week, stocks skyrocket on better-than-expected desire for Spanish bonds.

Lots of News, But Nothing New

Michael Pettis — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 07:05:47 -0500

A Look Back At Our ETF Ideas For 2011

Michael Johnston — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 07:01:15 -0500

With snow now blanketing a big part of the country and 2012 just a few weeks away, looking back at the past year becomes a popular activity. For many portfolios, 2011 has been marked by big swings that seem to be leaving investors right about where they started; there has been plenty of activity over the last 11 months, but little to show for it in way of returns.

Commodity Update

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 07:13:36 -0500

America's Best Companies are Cheap

Chuck Carnevale — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 05:58:04 -0500

A Look at the Bond Breakout

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 05:47:06 -0500

It’s understandable if you’ve forgotten about the bond market with all the activity centered on the stock market along with the recent multi-month sideways “rectangle” pattern in Bond Prices, but if you haven’t checked a recent leading Bond ETF chart, now might be a good time to do so.

Let’s start with the popular 7-10 year Treasury Fund IEF to see the current structure:

Are Dividends the Answer? Think Again

Michael Kahn — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 05:42:28 -0500

Today's column was about how two telecoms stocks - AT&T and Verizon - could provide a place to hide at the same time getting paid a healthy dividend to to so. I tried to make the point that just because you find a big name stock with a big dividend yield does not mean you can buy just anything.

Leading Stocks Acting Like NY Giants

Gary Kaltbaum — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 05:32:30 -0500

Since the two big gap-up days on the European news, nothing has happened.

In the last week, I’ve been starting to tell you things that I haven’t told you in a while. That the market was acting very bearishly…and I’m worried…even though we’re in this area we call “seasonal strength.”

Time to Move Your Feet

Bob Lang — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 11:12:31 -0500

Is the Market Following a Script?

David Grandey — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 10:48:52 -0500

VIX and St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index Moving in Concert

Bill Luby — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 10:34:18 -0500

Last year I talked about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (which I am calling the STLFSI in order to lower my carpal tunnel risk) as a measure of financial market risk that I consider complementary to the VIX and in some cases perhaps even a superior alternative.

Dollar Crushes Commodities

Adam Hamilton — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 10:32:06 -0500

The long-in-the-tooth commodities correction plunged to new lows this week. Traders were disappointed the Fed didn’t announce a new quantitative-easing campaign, so they dumped the popular commodities with a vengeance. But realize the primary driver of the recent commodities weakness is not the Fed, but a strengthening US dollar. The coming commodities price action heavily depends on its fortunes.

Growth and Value: Esterline Technologies - a Leading Defense Contractor

Chuck Carnevale — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 10:03:56 -0500

Investing versus Speculating

Back Door Bazooka: The EU Solution?

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 09:49:05 -0500

Deja Vu All Over Again

Ray Barros — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 07:34:41 -0500

In 1980, I sold my legal practice and turned to full-time trading. At the time, Gold was in a downtrend, and I seemed to pick to go short the precise day when it would correct up for 2 to 3 days. I compounded the loss by stopping and reversing (so from short, I was now long, usually at the top of the rally). Then as Gold resumed its downtrend, I’d get stubborn and add to my longs until I blew my account.

‘Dumb’ is the kindest word that I can use to describe that type of trading.

What should we expect from Santa?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 09:31:17 -0500

Market Set up for a Big Move Higher

John Nyaradi — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 09:15:26 -0500

After a gloomy week in global stock markets and downbeat global news, investors face the Holiday Season worrying that the Grinch has stolen Christmas.

However, subtle signs point to the possiblity that a major stock market rally could be imminent.

9 trading days left in the year.

Gary Kaltbaum — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 09:06:34 -0500
9 trading days left in the year.

In the past few months, I made a point of telling you that we’re entering a very tough period for the market…and that’s what we got.

I said it based on how many areas of the market that had topped out–combined with policy, Europe, deficits, margins, lack of expansion. A nauseating nine months.

How Investors Should Think About Europe

Jeff Miller — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 10:03:33 -0500

The right way to approach macro investment themes depends upon your time frame. For traders, you need to find the rhythm of the current market. What do the active participants expect? When do they expect it?

The problem for investors is much different. The investor should hope for wild gyrations and mispricing of asset classes. That is the source of opportunity.

Creating A Yield-Oriented Portfolio For 2012

Gary Gordon — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 09:31:47 -0500

Let’s face it. Maybe you weren’t cut out for volatility. And the stock market isn’t about to let you garner remarkable rewards in 2012… at least not without monstrous price swings.

Can you turn to U.S. treasuries next year? Even if record-low yields didn’t rise, your return may not even keep up with inflation. It doesn’t look much better for savings accounts either.

A Closer Look At Yesterday's Encouraging Report On Jobless Claims

Jim Picerno — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 09:22:56 -0500

People of Wal-Mart Still Spending

Jeff White — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 09:20:59 -0500

While the People of Wal-Mart website is always an entertaining bookmark, the stock itself is no joke. Sporting nearly a 20% return since its August low, this slow mover has outpaced the S&P’s return by about 2 1/2 times.

Have a Plan

Michael Kahn — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 09:03:02 -0500

After the last two bear markets, most investors understand that they have to have a plan to protect their portfolios. Traders live and die by this. They are taught that knowing when they should sell is more important than when to buy.
In other words, they recognize when it is time to cut their losses. Investors should understand this, too.

Ickiness Persists

Gary Kaltbaum — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 08:53:14 -0500

We’ve had a pretty icky market as of late–what I’ve been describing as bearish action. A lot of areas are breaking down. I don’t like what I’m seeing…a lot of growth leaders in trouble.

At the very least, there’s just not much to do, as there’s not much leadership in the market.

Why Profit Margins Are So High

David Merkel — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 08:44:41 -0500

Why are profit margins so high? I offer a few reasons:
1) Those that fund equity have high demands placed on them. Many are pension plans and endowments, and they push firms to achieve higher profits. This is true whether the business is public or private.
2) With globalization, there is downward pressure on wages for those in industries where goods are tradable internationally. That downward pressure allows profit margins to stay fat.
That said, the big return is going to those who have scarce resources amid global growth.

A Pause

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 04:13:56 -0500

The Gold Breakdown

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 01:37:21 -0500

Gold prices ejected downward from their Symmetrical Triangle bigger price pattern this week, resulting in a continuation breakdown move towards expected lower targets.

Let’s take a look at the original “Symmetrical Triangle” prior update (ahead of the break) and now update what’s happened and where we are now, starting with the “Pure Price” pattern itself:

401(k) Plans Need Real Choice

Dock David Treece — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:29:47 -0500

Credit crisis part 2 or another reprieve?

Clif Droke — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:15:29 -0500

My View of the S&P

Ray Barros — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:15:00 -0500

The whipsaw price action has left a trail of losses in its wake.

Bears in the Driver's Seat

Gary Kaltbaum — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:45:23 -0500

From February to March, I started warning you of an impending top. I had the reasons. I told you what I was seeing. I started with the financials and then the semiconductors.

Still Bearish

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 05:13:01 -0500

Timeframes and Position Size

Jeff White — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 09:15:46 -0500

Equally important to locating entries and exits is the matter of sizing your positions. Too much and you can’t stick with the trade plan, aborting in favor of diminishing emotions (whether greed or fear). Too little and you don’t maximize the use of your capital.

While some traders prefer a standard lot size, in this video I’ll discuss the notion that your timeframe for the trade should influence your position size.

Yes, the chart itself will help determine your exits, but that’s also a function of how long you’ll expect to be in the trade.

End-of-Year Seasonals and the VIX

Bill Luby — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 09:10:52 -0500

It seems well-nigh impossible for a December to pass without some sort of movements in the CBOE Market Volatility Index (the formal name of the VIX, for those who may have a short memory) that leave investors scratching their heads. In light of this, it appears I will be responsible for at least one December post reminding investors about the idiosyncrasies of implied volatility and the VIX during the holiday season.

The Fearless Breakdown

Gary Gordon — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 09:08:51 -0500

By several measures, investors are every bit as afraid today as they were in the first week of October, when U.S. stocks had reached 52-week lows. Yet the S&P 500 is 11.5% higher than it was on 10/3/11.

How can we tell that investors are still petrified? They’re flocking back to the perceived safety of the U.S. dollar and piling back into U.S. treasuries.

Red Flags in Precious Metals

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 08:49:44 -0500

Currencies Favor Caution

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 10:53:08 -0500

The correlation between the S&P 500 and the euro has been running extremely high in recent months. Therefore, if the euro can mount a sustained charge higher, stocks could do the same.

The Gold Medal Gold Model

David Merkel — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 10:50:48 -0500

Eddy Elfenbein is a clever guy; he put together a model of gold prices that fits the data very well. Tonight, I will share my own variation on the model, and try to give an intuitive explanation of why it works.

2 Levels to Watch for Gold (GLD)

Jeff White — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 10:34:42 -0500

GLD is the 2nd-highest capitalized ETF around, only behind SPY. It’s nearly triple the capitalization of QQQ, just to give you some perspective. And with such a fixation on the economy (both domestic & global), it’s no shock that the sometimes safe haven of gold has been in the limelight.

Another Look at the Conditional Sharpe Ratio

Jim Picerno — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 10:30:44 -0500

“What this country needs is a good five-cent cigar,” Thomas Marshall (Woodrow Wilson's vice president) once remarked. Updating the quip for 21st century finance might run as follows: Investors need a good risk metric. Alas, what's needed and what's available isn't usually, if ever, one and the same in the money game. The next best thing is tapping several flawed metrics that are flawed in different ways.

The Low Fear Selloff

Bill Luby — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 10:16:20 -0500

Steven Place of Investing with Options has a video post up this morning, Options Market Does Not Care About Selloff, in which he discusses how the implied volatility in various asset class volatility indices (VIX, GVZ, EVZ) are showing a very muted reaction to today’s selloff in stocks.

Time For Some Holiday Shopping

Bob Lang — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 10:29:21 -0500

Central Bankers Take the Spotlight

Jeff Miller — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 10:14:10 -0500

Now that the political leaders in Europe have acted, we are all left to wonder whether anything has changed.

The framework is different, perhaps providing some comfort for the ECB if Draghi chooses to become more aggressive. The initial market reaction was positive, but everyone is still very cautious.

Traders are Listening for Jingle Bells

John Nyaradi — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 10:05:47 -0500

Names I am Watching

Gary Kaltbaum — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 09:56:34 -0500

14 days of trading left in the year.  The spasticity of the market has not died down. As I told you, the market from Veterans Day to the end of the year has been higher for the past 10 out of 10 years, and 22 out of the past 24.

It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Yeeeear

Rob Hanna — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 09:15:21 -0500

Over several time horizons op-ex week in December has been the most bullish week of the year for the SPX. The positive seasonality actually has persisted for up to 3 weeks. I demonstrated this most recently in the the blog exactly a year ago. I’ve updated that study below to include last year’s stats.

Economic Data has been Getting Better

Bill Luby — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 09:07:29 -0500

At some point investors are going to have to change their watches back from Central European Time to Eastern Time (or Central Time if you are an options trader) and pay more attention to what is going on inside the borders of that sometimes overlooked nation just south of Canada.

Bullish Stock Technicals

Adam Hamilton — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 08:53:05 -0500

The stock markets are still riddled with anxiety, with traders nervously awaiting the next shoe to drop. Will Europe fracture? Does a global recession loom? But in an apprehensive environment where fears are legion, it’s easy to lose the forest for the trees. If you can transcend the day-to-day newsflow slog for a broader perspective, the technicals of the US stock markets are actually quite bullish today.

Can The EU Pact Offset Bearish Momentum?

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 11:19:14 -0500

Can We Trust The Moderate Growth Forecasts?

Jim Picerno — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 11:05:37 -0500

Another day, another economic forecast. The 35 economists polled for the latest Livingston Survey via the Philadelphia Fed project that real GDP for the U.S. will grow at an annualized 2.5% rate for the second half of 2011. That's down from June's 3.2% second-half 2011 forecast. Down, but still not out.

When it Ain't Ripe, Don't Pick

Gary Kaltbaum — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 09:46:57 -0500

I’ve been telling you for months that I’m not going to commit a lot of capital to this market. I going to take my time. It’s impossible to play —

Gold Getting Ready for Take-Off

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 09:33:03 -0500

Not to be outdone by the recent S&P 500 triangle pattern, Gold is forming a broader Symmetrical Triangle Consolidation Pattern that we’re following closely for any sign of a breakout from the converging trendlines.

Let’s look at this situation from two perspectives, starting with the “pure price” intraday level:

VIX Puts Look Attractive

Bill Luby — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 09:20:20 -0500

A lot can happen to the financial markets in the course of the next day or so and by my unofficial reckoning, quite a few of those are not just scary, but could have a 2008 flavor to them.

ECB Disappoints Market Bulls

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 09:22:13 -0500

How do we know that China is overinvesting?

Michael Pettis — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 10:07:58 -0500

The Commodity Sabbatical

Gary Gordon — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 10:05:31 -0500

Many investors have used precious metals to hedge against weak monetary policies of central banks around the world. Other investors believe that you can’t go wrong with “black gold,” since the global demand for oil will eventually outstrip the available supply.

On these simple assessments, those who chose the PowerShares DB Precious Metals Fund (DBP) have seen their selection rise 22% over the previous 12 months; those who selected the PowerShares DB Oil Fund (DBO) have been rewarded with roughly 7% year-over-year.

The Case for Optimism

Chuck Carnevale — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 10:02:12 -0500

Labor Market Data Revisions Look Encouraging

Jim Picerno — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 09:15:49 -0500

This Market is Insane

Gary Kaltbaum — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 09:12:43 -0500

This market has been insane lately.

When it is announced or rumored of more debt and leverage to fix the problem of debt and leverage, the financials rally.

Darden Restaurants (DRI) is Dirt Cheap

Chuck Carnevale — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 10:34:08 -0500

The stock market often behaves in very peculiar ways. After announcing a modest reduction in revenues and earnings for fiscal 2012, attributed mostly to modest weakness with their Olive Garden Italian restaurant concept, Darden Restaurants, Inc.’s (DRI) is off over 11% today in active trading. We believe this is an overreaction that has created an excellent buying opportunity for the conservative long-term investors seeking capital appreciation and an increasing dividend income stream.

Is the End Game Near?

Jeff Miller — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 09:48:25 -0500

EU Commissioner Ollie Rehn started the countdown six days ago with his "ten days to save the Euro" statement.

Shortly thereafter Angela Merkel warned that this is a marathon.

China Plays for a Soft Landing

Gary Gordon — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 10:37:56 -0500

In 2004, South Korea and Australia began exporting more to China than they did to the United States. By year-end 2008, Japan and Brazil exported more to China than to the U.S.

Not surprisingly, when the Chinese government expressed an intention to rein in rampant inflation through tighter fiscal and monetary policy (November 2010), many countries that depend on their exports to China began a year-long bearish retreat. In fact, ETFs for resource-rich countries (e.g., Brazil, South Africa, Chile), as well as China itself, were hit the hardest.

Addressing Those Fat Tails

Jim Picerno — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 09:09:10 -0500

The problem of fat tails is everywhere in risk analysis. It’s a big issue, but there’s no easy solution. There are, however, lots of partial solutions. Each comes with its own set of pros and cons, which implies that the practical strategy for dealing with the messy but essential issues related to measuring and managing risk starts with the iron rule to never, ever rely on one risk metric.

Waiting With Bated Breath

Kathy Lien — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 09:04:11 -0500

Looking for Direction

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 05:04:25 -0500

This is an Excellent Column - Enough Said

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 11:56:55 -0500

When you’re studying a price chart to assess trading opportunities, what is your eye drawn to first?

Is it the indicators? Is it moving averages? How about candles?

And when you are looking to put on a trade, are you taking a moment to address the context in which you’re placing the trade?

Is it a counter-trend fade? A pro-trend retracement? A breakout from a consolidation pattern (like a rectangle or triangle?) And when playing the breakout, are you looking to play a trend reversal breakout or a trend continuity breakout play?

Relating Charts to Market Analysis

Michael Kahn — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 10:19:44 -0500

Here is another article I wrote for Scottrade way back when (Jan 2010). Again, I figure the statute of limitations has run out for an article I wrote for free so here it is - for novices.

Central Banks and Rating Agencies are Getting Fed Up

Kathy Lien — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 09:55:19 -0500

The Nasdaq's Strong Tendency Under Similar Circumstances Over the Last Decade

Rob Hanna — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 09:21:01 -0500
Many people are aware that several higher closes during a downtrend will often suggest a downside edge. Few people realize how strong this tendency has been in the Nasdaq over the last decade, especially once the index has closed up 4 days in a row. With the Nasdaq now up exactly 4 days in a row as of Monday’s close, the study below is triggering.

Valuing Behemoths

David Merkel — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 09:04:48 -0500

There have been a lot of articles recently about how cheap the Behemoth stocks are — I define Behemoth stocks as those with over $100 Billion of market capitalization. At the close on December 2nd, there were 39 of them that trade on US Stock exchanges.

The Power of Habit

Ray Barros — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 08:56:43 -0500

Neurology has shown that conscious decision-making is energy depleting - the more we exercise our reason without a break, the more likely we are to make mistakes, breach discipline etc. Neurology has also shown that activities governed by our subconscious use little energy. It therefore makes sense to train ourselves in the power of habit. The more we can assign routine tasks to our subconscious, the more energy we have left for our important decisions.

For example there are trading activities that lend themselves to habit:

Hope Versus Reality

Kathy Lien — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 10:39:50 -0500

The Stock Market Explodes: Now What?

Steve Miller — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 09:29:07 -0500

Putting A Price On Investment Strategies

Jim Picerno — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 09:19:03 -0500

How much should you pay for asset management? It's a question that comes up routinely in my travels in finance. There's no standard answer, but most investors (and institutions) should err on the side of caution when it comes to paying hefty fees. The world is awash in claims of success for adding value over investment benchmarks, but comparing audited results with passive indices and/or simple rebalancing strategies begs to differ. Even before adjusting for taxes and trading costs, truly superior active management is a rare bird.

Does the Future Look Brighter Now?

Bob Lang — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 08:16:36 -0500

Will the EU Step Back from the Abyss?

John Nyaradi — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 08:08:43 -0500

Will Europe step back from the abyss and save its currency, economy, and even the world?

As European leaders race to find a solution to their two year old crisis, investors watch to see if France and Germany can finally get in front of this fast moving crisis. If market participants find credible solutions emerging fromthe coming week’s events, the stage could be perfectly set for a year end rally extending into the “January Effect” in 2012.

Current Market Structure

Gary Kaltbaum — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 07:24:07 -0500

More of the same.

Oil or Gas?

Scott Wright — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 01:48:37 -0500

Hydrocarbons have become the lifeblood of this modern era. And with a huge economic incentive for finding and extracting them, drillers have scoured the world in search of this finite resource. When they do find it, there is nothing more thrilling than bringing this raw form of energy to the surface.

Non-Farm Payrolls Up 120k, Drop in Jobless Rate Fails to Impress

Kathy Lien — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 10:21:15 -0500

Labor Dept Says Private Payrolls Rose A Moderate 140,000 In November

Jim Picerno — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 10:19:43 -0500

New 52-Week Highs Show Where the Strength Is

Gary Gordon — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 07:09:02 -0500

On the first day of December, 2011, a number of brand name corporations hit new 52-week highs. Here are a few that caught my eye: McDonalds (MCD), Phillip Morris (PM), Diageo (DEO), Kraft (KFT) and Treehouse Foods (THS).

Keep in mind, most of the media attention centers on the discretionary spending of the consumer (e.g., “Black Friday” widescreens, ”Cyber Monday” acquisitions of the new Kindle, etc.). However, non-discretionary consumer stocks are also on fire.

TICK Levels for Intraday Trading

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 07:00:45 -0500

For those of you who use the NYSE TICK in your intraday trading, it’s very important to understand that the reference TICK extremes – highs and lows – changes as a factor of market volatility.

What that means is that you can’t just call a +1,000 or -1,000 TICK reading “extreme” – the value of “extreme” cycles up and down over time.

Can Payrolls Extend the Rally?

Kathy Lien — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 10:47:54 -0500

For The Non-Apocalyptic Investor

Gary Gordon — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 10:34:42 -0500

I represent hundreds of families as the president of my Registered Investment Adviser, taught financial concepts to classrooms around the world, spent years as the CFP on a national talk radio show and receive countless e-mails from wisdom seekers. Yet I would not be able to tally the number of investors who I have encountered in my lifetime.

However, there are a wide variety of themes that come up… over and over again. Some of the themes come from a place of greed, though the overwhelming majority come from a place of fear.

Ghost in the Machine

Michael Kahn — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 10:29:35 -0500

From Wikipedia:

The "ghost in the machine" is the British philosopher Gilbert Ryle's description of René Descartes' mind-body dualism. The phrase was introduced in Ryle's book The Concept of Mind (1949) to highlight the perceived absurdity of dualist systems like Descartes' where mental activity carries on in parallel to physical action, but where their means of interaction are unknown or, at best, speculative.

VIX Reflecting Skepticism About Rally

Bill Luby — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 10:23:30 -0500

With the S&P 500 index up 4.3% and the VIX down 9.3%, it was clear that there was a fairly substantial disconnect at the moment between those who are buying stocks and those who are trading options on the SPX. The picture is even more dramatic if you look at the upward trend in both the SPX and the VIX after the open. An intraday chart of the S&P 500 is not ideal for deciphering the relative movements, but the unusually high correlation between stocks and implied volatility was unmistakable when looking at yesterday’s intraday price action.

Black Swan or Dead Duck?

Dock David Treece — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 08:54:34 -0500

Kicking the Can

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 05:14:45 -0500

2 Up Days After A 20-day Low The SPY Gaps Up 1%

Rob Hanna — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 11:05:41 -0500

A quick study for you the morning...

Markets Soar as CB Flood Markets with Liquidity

Kathy Lien — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 10:32:24 -0500

Voodoo and Tea Leaves

Michael Kahn — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 07:02:15 -0500

I must be going crazy penned into my office for days writing story after story while it is 60 degrees and gorgeous outside here in the Northeast (yes, I saw the rain this morning).   The song Radio Radio by Elvis Costello comes to mind as I write this about Ratio Ratios.

3 Fear Indicators That Suggest Caution

Gary Gordon — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 06:44:54 -0500

I didn’t pursue a Master of Business Administration when I was younger; rather, I felt there would be more value in a Master of Science in Industrial/Organizational Psychology (a.k.a. “the psychology of business”).

Why did I/O beckon more than the typical MBA track for financial professionals? In essence, the crash in October of 1987 had a profound affect on my sensibilities; I became keenly aware that the financial markets were more about fear and greed, less about projected earnings and widget sales.

Can October's Economic Momentum Last?

Jim Picerno — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 06:39:15 -0500

S&P 500 Internal Check-Up

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 05:42:42 -0500

What do we see when we look “under the hood” at the market by viewing current Market Internals?

Let’s take a look with the bigger picture and drill down from there:

Click for larger image.

Leading Stocks Showing Bullish Action

David Grandey — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 12:04:40 -0500

The War Between Creditors and Debtors

Clif Droke — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 10:55:03 -0500

Consumers More Optimistic but Concerns About Europe Remain

Kathy Lien — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 10:44:56 -0500

Stock Bear Seasonals

Adam Hamilton — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 09:27:04 -0500

The general stock markets’ day-to-day price action utterly dominates individual stock sectors, including commodities stocks. So anything traders can do to better understand the forces driving the stock markets as a whole leads to better stock entries and exits universally. With this truth in mind, many speculators and investors wonder whether commodities-like seasonality also exists in the general stock markets.

A Wake Up Call for Coffee Stocks?

Chuck Carnevale — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 09:20:59 -0500

Euro Explanations

Jim Picerno — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 09:10:19 -0500

The euro crisis is a tragedy—or a farce? Whatever it is, it's bit less so today, or one could reason by way of today's rally in U.S. stocks. But how did we get here? Everyone has an opinion.

Indicator Whackadoo

Michael Kahn — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 08:57:25 -0500

Twas the day after Thanksgiving break and all through the house,
Everyone was buying stocks......everyone.

A little stunted poetry by yours truly. The stock market did one of its patented gap up go nowhere after that moves today as the Dow traded at about up 300 points until the final hour. What I found fascinating was that breadth indicators were completely and massively lopsided during the morning hours. Everything (almost) was up and all (almost) breadth indicators were pinned at extremes.

Just the Way it Is

Bob Lang — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 12:03:57 -0500

Our Top Dividend Growth Stocks are Dirt Cheap

Chuck Carnevale — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 11:42:53 -0500

Anyone who had recently invested in real estate would most likely agree that the phrase “dirt cheap” carries a new and enhanced meaning today. In the same vein, we would argue that our top 25 dividend growth stocks based on the potential for five-year estimated annual total returns are dirt cheap. Consequently, we believe that most of the bad news is already priced in, and therefore, the opportunity to buy low is the best it’s been since 1997.

More Euro Speculation

Kathy Lien — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 10:55:29 -0500

2% Gaps Up From 20-day Lows

Rob Hanna — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 10:49:42 -0500

With SPY looking to gap up over 2.5% this morning below is a quick look at all other instances since 2003 when SPY gapped up over 2% immediately following a 20-day low.

Waiting for a Deluge of Data

Jeff Miller — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 09:39:28 -0500

After a holiday-shortened week of trading, there will be a deluge of data -- the most important reports in many weeks. Will it matter? Normally Friday's employment situation report would be the big news of the week. If last week is a guide, the story will be all about Europe.

The US story has been one of continuing modest growth and excellent earnings. Gavyn Davies draws the distinction between the US and Europe:

Can Europe Contain The Fireball?

John Nyaradi — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 09:10:25 -0500
Can Europe contain the fireball of financial contagion that is hopscotching across the Continent?
Last week U.S. stock markets suffered significant declines and the fundamental and technical indicators flash significant warnings as we look ahead to December and what is usually the start of the seasonal “Santa Rally.”

On My Wall Street Radar

Gold Setting Up for a Big Reversal

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 08:55:44 -0500

Gold gave us a breakdown sell signal last week in the form of broken daily support in the context of an intraday Rounded Reversal price pattern.

Let’s take a look at these new developments and what levels are key to watch in the week ahead.

First, the intraday “Rounded Reversal” pattern:

Horrible Action, but Beyond Oversold

Gary Kaltbaum — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 08:47:50 -0500

On November 9th, I wrote this:

FX: And the Hits Keep on Coming

Kathy Lien — Fri, 25 Nov 2011 09:59:18 -0500

An Investors' Guide to the Supercommittee Failure

Jeff Miller — Fri, 25 Nov 2011 09:41:15 -0500

It is difficult to forge effective policy solutions during the political "silly season." We would all like to see less time spent on elections and more on solving problems.
The failure of the Supercommittee, which I originally thought had a fair chance to succeed, illustrates the dangers of extreme partisanship. Some are suggesting that people vote against all incumbents. In fact, we have three political parties --- extreme Democrats, extreme Republicans, and those willing to compromise.

EU Playing With Fire

Jim Picerno — Fri, 25 Nov 2011 09:22:38 -0500

The only thing worse than an economy headed for a recession is an economy headed for recession with rising interest rates. That appears to be Europe's fate, and it's a fate that increasingly looks like a self-inflicted wound. The stakes could hardly be higher. The blowback from Europe threaten the feeble growth in the U.S., which in turn carries dire implications for the global economy, starting with China. But, hey, the political "leadership" in Germany, which in many ways is directing this horror show, doesn't see any reason to change its plans.

Respect This Action

Gary Kaltbaum — Fri, 25 Nov 2011 09:11:25 -0500

On November 14 and 15, I told you that any day we’re going to break either up or down from a triangle. At the time I really didn’t know whether it was going to be up or down. But I did know:

Hello Turkey

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 04:04:52 -0500

Fibonacci Grids for the End (of November)

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 10:33:32 -0500

If you’re following Fibonacci Retracements, these tools have worked well in finding price support during the recent sell-off.

Let’s take a look at two short-term Fibonacci Retracement grids on the S&P 500 and note where these grids converge.

First, the shorter term hourly intraday grid:

EUR Extends Losses, Looking for Support, US Data Mixed

Kathy Lien — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 09:51:03 -0500

As we warned in recent reports, the lack of breakthrough in European rescue talks means the path of least resistance is lower in the euro. Although we are not surprised to see the EUR/USD trading at a 6 week low this morning, we are still dismayed because what is bad for Europe is bad for asset and portfolio values around the world. Risky assets have fallen across the board signaling the potential for another tough day in the equity and currency market. The next level of support for the EUR/USD is its October low of 1.3145.

Another Ratio

Michael Kahn — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 09:09:09 -0500

If you've been following me at all you know I look at a few ratios just like your favorite CFA. Only my ratios come from the market and not someone's subjectively inputted spreadsheet. Does anyone really know what earnings will be next year and what the right discount rate is?

On CNBC Talking USD, EUR and My Favorite Trade

Kathy Lien — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 07:47:06 -0500

Kathy Lien headed over to CNBC Tuesday afternoon to talk about the dollar, the euro and her favorite trade right now.

Using the Euro ETF (FXE) as a Selection Tool

Gary Gordon — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 07:43:07 -0500

In my 10/27/11 commentary, 3 Reasons Stock ETF Investors Should Continue To Tread Lightly,” I pointed to the fact that the month-long stock surge had not come from the spectacular earnings season; in fact, the average return for individual securities on the session following a Q3 earnings report was -0.21%, suggesting that the entire October run-up emanated from enthusiasm for pan-European cooperation.

Emerging Markets ETFs: Five Factors To Consider

Michael Johnston — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 07:35:50 -0500

Sloppy Action

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 04:20:10 -0500

Why I’m Careful Trading Drug Stocks

Jeff White — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 12:45:43 -0500

I’m really careful with trading drug stocks, there’s just so much to them. You have things to consider like FDA approvals, patient trials, lawsuits, huge news of positive or negative test results, etc. It can get to be a mess, and very few of those items are scheduled news, so they’re usually surprises.

That might sound exciting to some, but any veteran trader like me would tell you that surprises are not what a trading career is built on. Surprises spook us, and full-time traders like me want only to avoid them.

Will Greece Unravel by Christmas?

Michael Pettis — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 12:42:30 -0500

In China economists are watching the spectacle in Europe, China’s largest export market, with rising dread. Might European deterioration affect Chinese growth? October and November tend to be very important months for Chinese exports, and so the prospect of a miserable Christmas in Europe is weighing heavily on Chinese exporters.

What Bounce?

Kathy Lien — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 12:39:40 -0500

Will the Barricades Fall?

Jim Picerno — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 12:28:54 -0500

Further Downside

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 05:29:16 -0500

What a Supercommittee Defeat Means for Currencies

Kathy Lien — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 10:15:06 -0500

Draghi Isn't Ready For His Closeup

Jim Picerno — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 09:44:36 -0500

Mario Draghi, the recently installed head of the European Central Bank, is in no mood for monetary salvation. Instead, it's price stability all the way—inflation fighting, in other words. “Gaining credibility is a long and laborious process,” he says. “But losing credibility can happen quickly — and history shows that regaining it has huge economic and social costs.”

LIBOR Still Rising

Michael Kahn — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 09:42:30 -0500

The 3-month London Interbank Offered Rate, a benchmark for global interest rates, is still rising and almost every single day.

A 1% Gap Down from a 20-day Low

Rob Hanna — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 09:33:45 -0500

The SPY finished at a 20-day low on Friday, and now it is gapping down large this morning. I ran a test to see what kind of intraday edge this might suggest.

Outlook Still Bearish

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 09:21:34 -0500

Numerous problems are facing investors:

Are the Bulls Down for the Count?

John Nyaradi — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 09:06:40 -0500

The Calm Before the Storm?

Bob Lang — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 08:30:13 -0500
The Calm Before the Storm?

Why The Buyback Achievers ETF May Begin To Earn Respect

Gary Gordon — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 07:53:37 -0500

Over the last year, the 15 companies in the Dow Industrials (DJIA) that repurchased the most shares returned roughly 9%. In contrast, the 15 companies in the DJIA that repurchased the least number of shares registered a less robust 3%.

Granted, this Morningstar study is not particularly extensive. Yet market pickers often covet corporations that engage in share buybacks, and the investment community frequently tags along for the ride.

Waiting for the ECB

Jeff Miller — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 07:48:04 -0500

Sometimes stock market moves defy a sensible interpretation.

The news directly related to US equities was pretty good last week, but the market reaction was negative. If you were watching daily trading, you could focus on one indicator: The yield on the Italian ten-year bonds. With 7% perceived as the danger zone that presaged problems in Greece and Ireland, there is special concern when this level is approached.

Not Pretty

Gary Kaltbaum — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 07:14:50 -0500

The market finally showed its hand this past week, and it was not a pretty sight. The triangle pattern has resolved itself to the downside. Anything is possible, especially with the seasonal strength and this news-driven environment but I now strongly believe that the recent highs was not just a high but probabilities favor THE high for the recent intermediate-term move off the October 4th lows. I will get into support levels in a bit but first, I want to point out my worries.

The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung Yet!

Jim Koford — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 03:39:40 -0500

Over the past several weeks, we’ve had some interesting conditions serving as a backdrop to the broader action in the market. On the one hand, the bears haven’t been able to gain much traction despite the ongoing turmoil in Europe. For the most part, handwringing across the pond and weak open here lately have offered eager dip buyers the opportunity to continue to add some exposure.

HUI Bull Seasonals 4

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 12:49:18 -0500

After updating my gold-seasonality research last week, I heard from traders wondering how it affects gold stocks. Since the price of gold is their primary driver, gold seasonality naturally has a major impact on gold-stock price levels. This is readily apparent in the seasonality of the HUI, the flagship gold-stock index. As you’d expect, this sector mirrors and amplifies the seasonal swings in the metal it mines.

Is the ECB Getting Ready to Save the World?

Kathy Lien — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 09:54:46 -0500

Friday is finally here and the rumors are flying. The euro surged following reports that there could be a deal between the ECB and the IMF to provide support to fiscally troubled nations that would sidestep the need to for an EU Treaty change. However earlier this morning, there was also a repors that the central bank could announce a weekly cap to their sovereign bond purchases and unfortunately these two unconfirmed stories have diametrically opposite implications for the euro.

Examining “Dynamic” ETFs

Michael Johnston — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 12:25:49 -0500

The vast majority of the 1,300+ exchange-traded products now available to U.S. investors are alike in that they offer static exposure to a specific asset class, whether it be stocks, bonds, commodities, volatility futures, or other “exotic” securities. While the composition of the underlying portfolios changes regularly, the type of exposure offered–whether it be soybean futures, large cap U.S. stocks, or inflation-protected bonds–remains generally stable.

Europe's Central Banking Crisis

Jim Picerno — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 12:15:54 -0500

China: Evaluating The Case For A New Bull Market On The Mainland

Gary Gordon — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 12:13:46 -0500

The SPDR S&P China Fund (GXC) fell -37% from an April high to an October low. That was nearly twice the top-to-bottom devastation for the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY). What’s more, the dramatic sell-off across all China ETFs met the commonplace definition of a bear market — a 20% drop from the peak.

Often, commentators and analysts use technical data to confirm bearish trends. For instance, when the 50-day moving average for GXC crossed below its 200-day moving average in July, the “death cross” signaled the likelihood of a downturn.

EUR Relief Rally, Italian-Spanish Yield Spread, US Data

Kathy Lien — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 11:39:58 -0500

Predicting the Europe Outcome: What it Means for US Stocks

Jeff Miller — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 10:52:24 -0500

Let's start with my nomination for the quote of the day, the words of Jack Bouroudjian: A blinding glimpse of the obvious.

Here is the context. Bouroudjian, a CNBC regular, when asked about his reaction to the late-day Fitch warning about a possible rating downgrade for US banks responded as follows:

Fear and Greed

Michael Kahn — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 08:55:25 -0500

This is a chart of the ratio of two commodities, both priced in dollars. That means the dollar is taken out of the equation leaving just real market meaning behind.

Corrections Underway

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 08:06:39 -0500

Why We Don’t Buy Breakouts

David Grandey — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 02:49:17 -0500

We don’t buy breakouts, instead we would rather allow stocks to come to us.

The Ebb & Flow Of Style Analysis

Jim Picerno — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 10:34:08 -0500

Tech Dominance In Q4 At The Mercy Of The Eurozone

Gary Gordon — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 10:22:31 -0500

Is it possible that commentators have underestimated Warren Buffett’s flexibility? Indeed, the Oracle of Omaha is best known for buying the cheapest names on “boring” brand name institutions, like Coca-Cola (KO), American Express (AXP) and Procter & Gamble (PG). He rarely showed interest in anything remotely “tech.”

Yet during the summer of our discontent — when technology shares plummeted alongside double-dip recession fears — Buffett loaded up on International Business Machines (IBM). He now owns more than 5% of ”Big Blue.”

Detecting Subtle Changes of Character

Jeff White — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 10:06:28 -0500

As traders, it’s imperative that we take note of any nuance or variation from character when reviewing charts. Doing so can give us occasional false or contradicting signals, but it can also alert us to imminent moves or potential pattern failures.

Investors Still Seeking Safety

Kathy Lien — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 09:15:19 -0500

Examining Crude Resistance

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 09:13:40 -0500

Oil put in a stellar upside performance from October to present, and now faces yet another “Resistance Challenge” (it’s passed the others so far) into the $100 price resistance confluence.

Let’s view three timeframes of Crude Oil to see what to look for and what might come of the “Battle for $100.”

Low Volume A Possible Concern

Rob Hanna — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 08:48:18 -0500

Monday’s extremely low volume could be a short-term bearish sign. The 0.96% drop did not quite qualify for this 2008 study, but below is another past study that does exemplify the low-volume issue. Rather than index volume, it uses SPY volume. Either one would yield similar results in this case.

How Investors Can Save $415 Million (Without Breaking A Sweat)

Gary Gordon — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 10:28:36 -0500

Financial advisors and individual investors who have embraced ETFs are generally painted as a cost conscious crowd, passing over expensive active mutual funds in favor of cheap indexing strategies. In general ETFs are considerably cheaper than mutual funds, thanks not only to the indexing strategy but also to the more efficient exchange-traded structure.

The S&P 500's Developing Symmetrical Triangle

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 10:34:52 -0500

It makes sense that the broader market would pause to catch its breath after such a stellar October performance.

That’s what’s happening at the moment as the S&P 500 consolidates/pauses in a sideways/symmetrical triangle price pattern.

Let’s review the pattern and the current trendline reference areas and develop a game-plan of what to do with a future breakout.

First, the pure S&P 500 Triangle Pattern:

4 Reasons Why the EUR Rally Failed

Kathy Lien — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 10:17:40 -0500

A Dangerous Time for Treasury Bonds

Steve Miller — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 10:09:22 -0500

For the fun of it, let’s start this out with some interesting statistics: Italian 2-Year government bonds traded up to a 7% yield last week. Italy has a debt to GDP ratio of 120% and an unemployment rate of 8.2%. In comparison, yields on U.S. 10-year notes traded under 2% last week, the U.S. has a projected 2012 debt to GDP ratio of over 110% and an unemployment rate of 9%. It’s just some food for thought.

I See Cups and Handles

David Grandey — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 09:34:53 -0500

Ain't No Mountain High Enough

Bob Lang — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 09:10:27 -0500
As we approach the sweet spot of the calendar, the seasonal momentum takes hold. Historically speaking, the last six weeks of the year offer some of the best gains bulls see all year long.
So is now a time to get bulled up or remain with a cautious view? There are very few times where it seemed ‘right’ to go all in – THIS IS NOT ONE OF THEM. Conditions are improving but I’m moving forward with guarded optimism and keeping a very tight leash on trades.

Will the Volatility Continue?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:13:42 -0500

It is time to make an assessment. Whether you are an investor or a trader you need to ask three questions:

Bulls Need a Knockout

John Nyaradi — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:14:40 -0500

Feedback Loops and Sucker Trades

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 06:28:47 -0500

“Traders’ response to the global behavior of the system produces feedback which is either positive or negative. Positive feedback is constructive of trends, while negative feedback inhibits trend formation.” Gary Anderson on Relative Momentum

Gold Bull Seasonals

Adam Hamilton — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 06:26:03 -0500

Gold has just entered its strongest time of the year, embarking on a major seasonal rally. Naturally this is very bullish for not only this metal, but the companies that wrest it from the bowels of the Earth. Gold’s well-established seasonality is important for speculators and investors to understand, as it offers many great insights to help fine-tune the timing of precious-metals-related trades.

MF Global’s Disaster

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 04:57:19 -0500

Gold Current Technical Structure

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 11:13:44 -0500

Gold fell sharply from the $1,800 resistance level, so let’s take a look at what led up to the fall and what the current structural levels to watch are for gold, including a Fibonacci Cluster near $1,730.

First, the Hourly Structure:

A Precarious Optimism

Jim Picerno — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 11:04:12 -0500

The euro crisis is no garden variety hazard for the financial system, or even the global economy, but market sentiment in the U.S. seems to be holding up quite well in the face of the latest round of the ill winds via Italy.Yesterday's rally in stocks is one inspiring data point. Another is the staying power of inflation expectations via the yield spread on the 10-year Treasury less its inflation-indexed counterpart. It could all evaporate in the twinkling of an eye, but for now there's a view that the glass is still half full in these United States.

Veterans Day Performance

Rob Hanna — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:43:34 -0500

Veterans Day is one of the few US holidays when the bond market is closed and the stock market is open. Columbus Day is another. But while Columbus Day has exhibited some quantifiable edges, Veterans Day has not. Veterans Day is celebrated on November 11th (or the closest weekday to November 11th) each year. For a brief period from 1971 – 1977 it was celebrated on the 4th Friday of October. Below is a profit curve that shows how Veterans Day has performed over the years.

Why Italy Won't Fail and What to Consider Buying

Gary Gordon — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 09:28:00 -0500

The troubles in Italy, Portugal and Greece are shockingly serious. How serious? Many insist that these 3 little piggies will eventually succumb to disorderly bankruptcies, causing Armageddon for world stock markets and the global financial system.

For the doomsday crowd to be right, however, everything has to go wrong. Ev-er-y-thing!

Lessons in Valuation - Aflac is Way Underpriced

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 09:20:58 -0500

This is the third in a series of articles that have been designed to provide investors greater insights into the proper understanding and utilization of the PE ratio as a valuation measurement tool. With this iteration we're going to look at Aflac (AFL) as our example for using the PE ratio to identify significant undervaluation.

Commodity Update

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 05:20:58 -0500

Slim Stops by for a Visit

Editorial Staff — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 03:05:47 -0500

S&P 500 1,215 & 1,191 Key Support

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 09:14:31 -0500

As shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 held at a logical level on Wednesday. Even if stocks eventually break the October 4 lows, another push as high as 1,313 is possible. 1,215 is a widely watched level for the bulls, but 1,191 is also an important area of possible support.

What’s Behind Door #3?

Derek Hernquist — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 09:12:34 -0500

In my opinion, the next multi-week move will be upon us not when we a) break 1270 to the upside or b) break 1220 to the downside. No, the clues will come on the next day when the indices are flat but a batch of key stocks trade in a clear direction.

The Italy Factor Gets Ugly

Jim Picerno — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 09:10:14 -0500

Is the euro Toast? Maybe not, but if you thought the currency was under pressure before, well, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

The immediate issue is that the Italian problem has forced the European Central Bank into a put-up or shut-up moment. Bloomberg explains:

EURUSD Hanging Around 38.2% of the Trend Move Yesterday

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 09:08:47 -0500

Greek Problems Nothing New

Dock David Treece — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 08:54:23 -0500

This week the worry in Europe has focused in more closely on Italy, with most of the public having settled on the fact that Greece is a lost cause. The only question at this point is when Greek politicians and the European Central Bank admit what everyone already knows – that Greece is broke and won’t make good on its debts.

Look to Areas that "Lose Least" to Earn More

Gary Gordon — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 08:11:14 -0500

Motivational speakers frequently explain that the Chinese word for “crisis,” or “wei-ji,” represents a combination of “danger” (wei-xian) and “opportunity” (ji-hui). That said, how much opportunity can be found in crisis after catastrophe after calamity?

For instance, the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) have been responsible for staggering levels of market volatility for 24 months. Time and again, one or more of these debt-laden countries have caused what many market watchers would describe as chaotic.

1250-1280 S&P 500 May Be a Wall

Gary Kaltbaum — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 06:51:01 -0500

Gold rebuilds the wall of worry

Clif Droke — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 10:20:34 -0500

Safe Haven Currencies Soar

Kathy Lien — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 09:42:34 -0500

Financial markets are a mess this morning with currencies and equities trading sharply lower. The FTSE   and DAX are down more than 2 percent and this could be one of those days where the Dow also falls 300 points, driving investors back into the arms of the U.S. dollar. Safe haven currencies are performing extremely well this morning at the expense of the EUR, AUD and NZD. Safety is everyone's number one priority and the U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen are the most attractive plays.

Trading the End of Risk On, Risk Off

Jared Woodard — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 09:21:06 -0500

What if the “risk on / risk off” market environment comes to an end, even for a little while? This article explores a trade designed to profit from that possibility.

Key Levels to Watch in Crude

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 09:12:35 -0500

Stocks and Crude Oil performed well in October, breaking critical weekly (and of course daily) resistance levels to shift the dynamic to the buyers.

Let’s start with the weekly chart of Crude Oil and focus on the key price levels to watch going forward:

Is the Treasury Bull Market Really Over?

Gary Gordon — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 08:42:15 -0500

What happened to the high likelihood of a double-dip recession? It seems to have faded from bearish commentary. What happened to the notion that European policymakers would fail to agree on a plan for containing the sovereign debt virus? It appears that cooler heads are prevailing.

Not surprisingly, one is likely to read a fair amount of cautious optimism for stock assets. In fact, a large majority of Stock ETFs have eclipsed respective 50-day moving averages; meanwhile, the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) is currently trading above a 200-day trendline.

Will Slowing Income Growth Spoil The Party?

Jim Picerno — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 08:39:57 -0500

Risk Aversion in Play

Michael Johnston — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 08:30:17 -0500

The theme at the current moment appears to be risk aversion with Italian yields up and European stocks down. The USD is trading on session highs against all of the majors.

The EUR/USD broke through the 100 hour moving average, 50.0% (which was the next target), and continued lower through the 61.8% fibo line. It seems that the next target is 1.37083; a level which has shown the pair support earlier this month.

Berlusconi Budget Vote Hits EUR

Greg Michalowski — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 10:47:44 -0500
The question now is will there be pressure for a vote of confidence and/or more pressure for the leader to resign.
Opposition leader Bossi, says Italy runs risk of losing access to financial markets in the coming days.

He also says that vote shows Berlusconi government no longer has majority. Berlusconi party has 308 votes – enough to pass the vote – but lacks the majority within the coalition government that has been in place. So the coalition is falling apart and they will likely force a resignation from Berlusconi.

Germany Must Do It, Not China

Michael Pettis — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 02:25:41 -0500

I have already discussed last month why I think the desperate attempts by Europe to get China and other Asian and BRIC countries to bail out the weak sovereign borrowers is absurd, but the topic has become so important in the past two weeks, at least judging by the number of calls I have received from journalists, that I thought I would reproduce a discussion I recently had in a forum among a number of China specialists (the forum is Rick Baum’s estimable ChinaPol).

The First Step in Finding a Great Stock

Jeff Miller — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 06:16:43 -0500

Some stock pickers start with a screen. I start with a concept: Look for the hated!

I search for investment themes that are decidely contrarian. That means that few like the concept, the sector or the stock. The themes must meet several important critera:

Negative sentiment and/or polling
Analyst skepticism
Modest valuations

and most importantly -- hatred.

One of These Things is not Like the Other

Chuck Carnevale — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 06:10:06 -0500

Why Darden Restaurants is so Much Cheaper than SCANA Corp. even though their PE Ratios are Approximately the Same

EUR/USD: Prime for a Breakout, Italy’s Parliamentary Vote Could be the Catalyst

Kathy Lien — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 10:57:32 -0500

Why Inside Days No Longer Get Me Down

Rob Hanna — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 10:51:14 -0500

Tough Times for Long-Term Investors

Michael Kahn — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 10:03:23 -0500

Johnson & Johnson is a widely held stock and an institutional favorite. It pays a nice dividend and likely will be around for a long, long time. So investors should be comfortable with it, right?

Bubbles are Easy to Spot, Well Almost…

David Merkel — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 08:57:56 -0500

Bubbles are easy to spot. Wait, don’t most people say that bubbles are impossible to spot?
I’ll say that again: bubbles are easy to spot. Why? People have the wrong theory on bubbles. They listen to those that don’t understand the efficient markets hypothesis, and think, “Prices are always fair predictors of the future. I don’t have to think about the future as a result.” (It would be better to say that current prices are the short-term neutral line against which bets are placed.)

All Europe, All the Time

Jeff Miller — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 08:51:29 -0500

What constitutes progress in Europe? I certainly had it wrong last week!

With a general framework in place, my hope and expectation was that we could finally refocus on matters directly related to corporate earnings, the economy, and the implications for the markets. This hope lasted for less than 24 hours!

I have had a pretty good record of predicting the agenda for the week ahead, but I should have looked more carefully at that package we got from the Greeks!

News Background on Europe

Plenty of Twists and Turns Ahead

John Nyaradi — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 08:44:11 -0500

U.S. stock markets face twists and turns ahead as news from Europe, earnings and seasonality dominate global action.

Last week was exciting, if nothing else, as events in Europe continued to roil major U.S. stock markets. The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) dropped 2.5% while the Dow Jones Industrials (NYSEARCA:DIA) shed 2% in response to ongoing drama in Greece and Italy. (NYSEARCA:EWI) This week promises more of the same.
On My Wall Street Radar

The Other Side of Simple Math

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 08:29:04 -0500

Failing to add this qualifier puts the trader at risk of staying on the wrong side of the cleanest, most powerful moves. I had alluded to this by specifying indices as the instruments that honor this math, but the better qualifier would be “non-breakouts”. It’s been so rare of late to see actual breakouts in indices that it’s easy to lump them in as choppy, but to do so risks being caught patient when urgency is the better option.

Setting Up for a Scramble for Exposure

Bob Lang — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 08:13:57 -0500

Long-term Cycles vs. Short-Term Market Potential

Clif Droke — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 06:58:28 -0500

Three Distinct Positions

Matthew Bradbard — Sun, 06 Nov 2011 09:28:01 -0500

Fearmongering

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 04:39:35 -0400

October was truly an epic month for the stock markets. The flagship S&P 500 stock index rocketed 10.8% higher! As its best month since December 1991 and best October since 1982’s, October 2011 was inarguably awesome. While it remains fresh in our minds, it is important to remember the psychology leading into it. Fearmongering ran rampant in late September, hyper-bearishness reigned supreme.

Short Term Bracket Levels in the SP500 and Dow Jones

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 10:38:47 -0400

After a stellar October, the US Equity Markets have paused briefly between two main bracket (confluence) levels.

Let’s take a quick look at these levels on the daily chart and use these for trade planning:

Let’s drill down to the simple levels and you can build plans from there.

Putting Amazon (AMZN) Through the Paces

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 09:54:23 -0400

The PE Ratio - Its Importance as an Investment Tool

One Small Cut In Interest Rates, One Giant Step For Macro Perspective

Jim Picerno — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 09:14:20 -0400

EURUSD Remains Contained after Report

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 09:00:39 -0400

The EURUSD whipped around at 8:30 on the weaker headline, stronger revisions and is now working through what it wants to do.

When Will Investors Buy “Stuff” Again?

Gary Gordon — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 08:49:30 -0400

Greece might not take the bailout money? Okay… sell everything you’ve got, including that low-risk Vanguard Utilities Fund (VPU).

Greece is back on board? Very good… then buy Small Cap Australia (KROO) to profit from the “dollar carry trade.”

Expect More Trade Intervention

Michael Pettis — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 06:40:28 -0400

Last week’s Senate bill on Chinese currency intervention predictably enough brought out all the same old arguments about international trade, and just as predictably has hardened the opposing positions in the debate. Unfortunately the difference between a good outcome, intelligently negotiated, and a bad outcome, is pretty large, but with each side hardening its position the likelihood of a good outcome is declining.

New VIX Backwardation Record

Bill Luby — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 06:33:21 -0400

What to Expect from the G20 and Jobs Report

Kathy Lien — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 06:24:12 -0400

Who gets the jobs story wrong? Everyone!

Jeff Miller — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 06:21:47 -0400

Later this morning we will have the monthly ritual: The Employment Situation Report.

Here are the main steps (rinse, lather, repeat).

Downside Risks

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 05:14:56 -0400

Fed Still Not Giving Up on More QE

Kathy Lien — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 10:53:54 -0400

MAIN FED TAKEAWAY IS NOT GIVING UP ON QE

A "Glass is Half-Empty" Portfolio

Gary Gordon — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 10:08:58 -0400

The Greek referendum notwithstanding, most economists and Federal Reserve members have taken note of modest economic improvements. And while the slow-growth, limited-job environ is far from ideal, it should be enough to foster the well-being of many ETF assets.

Not convinced? Erratic price swings have shaken the olive out of your martini glass? Then opt for a simpler portfolio with a reliable income stream and a smaller percentage of the price volatility.

Abnormal Expectations

Jim Picerno — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 09:48:43 -0400

The Federal Reserve yesterday told us what we already suspected was coming. Economic growth will remain sluggish, according to the Fed's new core projection. Real GDP for all of 2011 will rise by 1.6% to 1.7%, the central bank predicts, down from its June estimate of 2.7% to 2.9%. Next year's real GDP is expected to deliver slightly better results in the 2.5% to 2.9% range, but that estimate has also been trimmed from June's 3.3% to 3.7% guess.

Using RSI

Michael Kahn — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 09:42:37 -0400

The following was featured in the "Today's Lesson" section of Quick Takes Pro yesterday. This is where we take a look at a topic in technical analysis relevant to what is happening in the market right now. What is truly oversold and overbought depends on the trend and we used Amazon below to address the condition of the major indices this week.

Low QE2 Volume & Inside Day Point To More Downside

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 08:40:59 -0400

The media likes to imply the Fed is on the verge of cranking up QE3. Here is Reuters take on Wednesday’s Fed statement and press conference:

The Federal Reserve is prepared to take further steps to help an economy that is “close to faltering,” Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday in his bleakest assessment yet of the fragile U.S. recovery.

Slow Day

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 05:21:59 -0400

Chasing Trades Isn’t Paying

Jeff White — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 11:35:27 -0400

Current conditions and the overall complexion of the market is always subject to change, but it’s still always worth taking note of. The market seems to be continually morphing into another phase, whether it’s range-bound, trending, highly volatile, or really tame.

FOMC Preview: Bernanke's Third Press Conference

Jeff Miller — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 11:15:59 -0400

It is great fun to be a Fed pundit!

Regular readers know that I have generally supported Fed policy, while criticizing the explanations and communications.

More importantly, we should all be realistic. It is very important to predict Fed policy and to understand the implications. That is where you can make money. The easy trap is disagreeing with the Fed. There is a genuine policy debate, reflected by the dissenting FOMC votes.

Stronger ADP Means No QE3 but FOMC Still Key

Kathy Lien — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 11:01:52 -0400

The Next Market Phase

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 10:39:09 -0400

The market tone has changed a ton since my last update. While I mentioned planning for crazy scenarios and used 1225 and 1350 as my risk and reward levels for $SPX, the events have unfolded far differently than I had imagined. We’ve failed to do the following things I thought would happen:

1) Consolidate October’s gains in a tight range

Assessing Key Trading Levels

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 09:22:07 -0400

Following up with the Inter-market charts at the beginning of November, let’s take it a step further and quantitify the levels of volatility – using Standard Deviation Bands – of the S&P 500, Gold, Oil, and US Dollar Index.

Let’s start with the S&P 500 Standard Deviation Band Chart:

Beggars Can't be Choosers

Kathy Lien — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 11:12:52 -0400

Quick Charting the Intermarket Rise and Fall into November

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 11:03:23 -0400

With the sharp rise in volatility in the cross-market landscape – mainly driven by Greece’s bailout then walked-back with the surprise announcement of a referendum vote – let’s take a quick look at where the current intermarket landscape resides at the moment.

Shrinking VIX Macro Cycles

Bill Luby — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 10:23:06 -0400

Staring at the VIX from the 30,000 foot level, it looks much different than it does from the trenches of daily trading. In the monthly chart below, one can see that from 1990 through 2008, the VIX moved in fairly regular ‘VIX macro cycles’ of 2-4 years in duration, with relatively gentle trends and transition points.

FOMC, ECB, RBA Meetings: What's Priced In?

Kathy Lien — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 09:22:49 -0400

Improving your trading/investment skill: Make a two-sided market!

Jeff Miller — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 09:14:24 -0400

Attention: Your opinion is your biggest mistake!

When I started in the investment business I knew a lot about the economy, politics, and quantitative analysis. That is why I was hired by a firm that had an all-star cast of traders.

My first lesson was about what I did not know.

The Markets are Never Wrong

Michael Kahn — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 08:50:43 -0400

Saw this quote on CNBC.com today. The names are withheld to protect the speaker - because the market will punish him/her enough.

When Stock Prices and Bond Yields Are Both Hitting New 50-Day Highs

Rob Hanna — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 08:38:44 -0400
The fact that the 10-year bond rates hit new highs on Thursday along with the SPX is notable. The study below is one I’ve published in the subscriber letter before.

Will The Yen Intervention Work this Time?

Kathy Lien — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 10:55:30 -0400

Updating the Breakdown in Bond Funds

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 10:24:20 -0400

If you’re looking at the Stock Market only, you’re likely missing the other side of the coin which is the Bond Market.

With the recent surge through resistance in stocks, let’s get a check-up on the break under support in popular bond funds TLT and IEF.

First, the 20+ Year TLT:

Let’s start with the basics and move from there.

Some Simple Trading Math

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 10:20:47 -0400

“The trader will be aided by an opinion whether a bull or bear market prevails, but since many of his operations will be the reverse of the trend he cannot confine himself to indications of long trend but must study the causes and indications behind the lesser moves.” Joseph Kerr, Method in Dealing in Stocks

Market Makers, Specialists, and Stops

Jeff White — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 10:08:03 -0400

My take on market makers and specialists is that they just want volume, all day, as they’re selling on the offer and buying on the bid. A few hundred shares here throughout the day add up to a lot. Stocks will naturally gravitate toward key areas of support and resistance, so if they just get close then it’s not that difficult for market makers to ‘spook’ prices a little further and run some stops.

Market Set for a Monster Week of Data

John Nyaradi — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 09:34:23 -0400

Will the Modest Economic Rebound Continue?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 09:30:55 -0400

Over the past several weeks the market has been dealing with worries on three fronts:

Gold: The “Hook” is Set

Steve Miller — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 08:52:41 -0400

Do You Trust this Market?

Bob Lang — Sun, 30 Oct 2011 11:08:02 -0400

Is the Consumer Spending Surge a “Dance of Death”?

Clif Droke — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 01:03:13 -0400

A Look Back and Ahead

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 12:30:53 -0400

Unconventional Oil

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 12:16:56 -0400

Each year a small portion of the world’s finite oil supply is drained. And over time this annual draw has grown larger in a world that seems to be getting smaller. As global commerce gains fluidity, the demand for this hydrocarbon appears to be insatiable.

Dissecting the Dow: Part Trois

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 11:03:36 -0400

Introduction

3 Reasons Why Stock Investors Should Tread Lightly

Gary Gordon — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 10:09:00 -0400

In the dark days of late September/early October, China hinted that it was nearing the end of its monetary and fiscal tightening campaign. At the same time, leaders in the European Union demonstrated several “come together” moments that removed the probability of an imminent collapse. And virtually every fundamental measure of “value” favored stocks over alternative assets.
In fact, I extolled the virtues of a Q4 stock rally in numerous features:

Bulls Not Out of the Woods Yet

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 09:14:19 -0400

While the market was very strong today, we are at the top end of a range that could push prices back (see last chart). At 3:50 p.m., the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) had not yet traded even an average number of shares. SPY normally trades 318M shares per day – today’s level was 301M, which is relatively low considering the magnitude of the gains – not bearish, but not impressive either.

How Much Farther Can the Euro Go?

Kathy Lien — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 09:05:34 -0400

What's a Few Trillion Between Friends?

Gary Kaltbaum — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 10:27:22 -0400

Back in late September, I was on a Fox Business show and was asked what I thought it would take to get the market bullish again. Tongue in cheek, I stated that maybe we wake up one day and the Fed announces a few trillion to just buy up the whole S&P. Well…not so sure we are not there.

5 Reasons Why the Euro Move is So Powerful

Kathy Lien — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 10:17:08 -0400

Lower Interest Rates, Higher Savings?

Michael Pettis — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 08:22:21 -0400

My friend Mark Williams sent me last week a reference to a very interesting paper written by Malhar Nabar, an economist at the IMF. The paper is called “Targets, Interest Rates, and Household Saving in Urban China” and in it Nabar tries to measure the impact of changes in the real deposit rate on changes in Chinese consumptions levels.

Netflix: A Brutal Lesson On the Dangers of Overvaluation (NFLX)

Chuck Carnevale — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 07:57:45 -0400

S&P: At the Cusp

Ray Barros — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 07:40:46 -0400
One of the better books on the subject - Michael Lewis’ ‘The Big Short’ (an examination of the Sub-prime 2007 crisis, and who won and lost) - demonstrates the fallacy of the economic notion of the ‘rational man’.
What the story shows that a few saw the dangers of the sub-prime and CDOs and took advantage of it.

The stock markets seem to be caught up with the same myopia that engulfed pre-subprime.

Everything You Need To Know About China Bond ETFs (Uncensored Edition)

Michael Johnston — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 07:38:39 -0400

Innovation has become standard in the ETF industry in recent years, as dozens of issuers have continued to roll out exciting new products offering exposure to new asset classes and investment strategies. The climb to 1,300 funds–more than doubling the size of the ETF lineup in just a few years–has been driven primarily by innovation, not duplication [see also Build America Bond ETFs: Crushing The Muni Competition].

AutoZone's Ascension (AZO)

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 07:26:17 -0400

EU: My $0.02

Ray Barros — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 11:17:54 -0400

“Europe will act in concert to prevent another Leman’s” - that was the hope and that hope has proven to be unfounded.

Two problems remain:

How (and whether) the European Financial Stability Facility can be scaled up to 440B - the amount needed for the bailout fund; and
The level of haircut the Greek bankers will take.

There are two options facing the scale up:

Can We Survive the Blitzkrieg?

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 11:10:29 -0400

“In uptrending markets, buy weakness as it returns to strength. In downtrending markets, sell strength as it returns to weakness.”  Mercenary Trader

Apple: Still Rotten

Steve Miller — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 10:52:53 -0400

APPLE: Still Rotten

About a month ago I wrote an article on Apple for Green Faucet: “APPLE, Something is Rotten”. Since that time the stock has had huge swings and tons of news, including the heartbreaking loss of the beyond extraordinary Steve Jobs.

I illustrated in that article that based on a combination of technical and fundamental factors, a decline was coming in AAPL stock. With the stock at 403, I said, “I'm betting we'll see that $365 level in AAPL soon”.

Amazing October

Gary Kaltbaum — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 10:44:29 -0400
On October 4th, the markets were heading into new low ground as the call for a bear market pervaded the air. At 3:15, the market reversed and had a monstrous move into the close. This was a washout day…in where the last of the sellers give up. This action had me writing the following paragraph to you that day:

Important Levels for Dr. Copper

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 08:57:56 -0400

We’ve been seeing copper in the news lately, mainly with its recent breakdown and consolidation off a key support level.

Let’s take a look at the weekly frame then drill-down to daily chart levels to watch in both Copper and the related ETF JJC.

First, the Weekly Chart of Copper:

Contrarian Investors Savor Apocalyptic Headlines

Gary Gordon — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 08:41:14 -0400

Factual headlines are often misleading. For example, a popular financial portal offered, ”October consumer confidence weakest since March 2009.” Most people might interpret this to mean that consumers aren’t spending and/or won’t be spending their money, resulting in less revenue for economically sensitive corporations. However, actual consumer spending has been on the rise… 1.1% in September alone.

Turning Point

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 09:35:32 -0400

Very Low SPY Volume At A New Intermediate-Term High

Rob Hanna — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 01:06:17 -0400

SPY volume came in at the lowest level in over a month on Monday. Very low SPY volume when the market is at or near highs is often a bearish sign. A few studies related to this appeared in the Quantifinder this evening. I decided to examine the combination of a 20-day low in volume combined with a 50-day high in price.

Questioning the 50-day & 200-day MAs

Jeff White — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 09:54:23 -0400

My recent post on Indicatoritis discussed how some traders rely on indicators incorrectly.

I believe that still holds true, but I was questioned about some common moving averages on the heels of that post.

So in this video, I want to discuss moving averages, and more specifically, two moving averages which are commonly accepted by traders as important: the 50-day and the 200-day moving averages.

Checking in on the Stock Market & the Business Cycle

Jim Picerno — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 09:32:30 -0400

The stock market’s annual performance is comfortably in the black again. After a brief slump into negative territory on a year-over-year price basis in late-September and early October, the S&P 500 is higher by 4.9% through Oct. 21. Is that a sign that the economy will keep growing? History offers some evidence for responding with a cautious “yes.”

Good Ideas and Possible Trades

Jeff Miller — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 08:12:06 -0400

There are promising investment themes. Some of these ideas are in a nascent stage. That is fine. It is riskier for me to discuss these, but more interesting for readers to consider.

Background

I am often asked about the process of stock picking. There is a simple starting premise:

I do not believe in the efficient market hypothesis.

October Kills Another Bear

Clif Droke — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 08:58:45 -0400

October has a tendency to be a “bear killer.” That is, in years when the stock market has been in decline heading into October, the month of October more often than not reverses the decline, at least temporarily. In the years that I’ve been writing a financial newsletter this was true in the following Octobers: 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002 and 2005.

Decision Time

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 04:18:49 -0400

A Precarious Optimism For Q3 GDP

Jim Picerno — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 01:11:41 -0400

Known Knowns and Known Unknowns (and Lawn Gnomes)

Kathy Lien — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 01:10:37 -0400

The Hope Rally Continues

John Nyaradi — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 01:07:34 -0400

Markets rally on hope for a European settlement

Last week I wrote, “Today we stand at a most important crossroads for the global economy and for major U.S. stock market indexes like the Dow Jones Industrials (AMEX: DIA) and S&P 500 (AMEX:SPY). The endgame in Europe appears to be at hand, and the successful or unsuccessful resolution of this crisis will determine the investment climate going forward.”

Real Progress in Europe?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 12:00:19 -0400

With so many interesting market issues -- earnings, recession worries, technical factors -- there is plenty to think about. All of these topics have taken a back seat because of the ongoing story in Europe.

What is the market looking for? Gavyn Davies provides a nice checklist of key points to watch for and the needed size of the European "bazooka."

Finding Reversal Opportunites with Dual Divergences

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 11:56:15 -0400

Mid-October gave us back-to-back examples of one of my favorite patterns and trade set-ups – that of the intraday trend reversal on clear positive dual divergences.

We’ll be using the @ES Futures as our proxy, but this example extends to any index futures contract or related ETF (including the leveraged funds).

Let’s take a moment to learn about this concept and see clear reference examples from October 20 and 21.

Bulls are Running with Scissors

Bob Lang — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 09:55:47 -0400

Four weeks of market rally but does it feel that way? After all, the high in September of 1220 was just exceeded a couple of times this week. Mind you Friday’s close seemed quite bullish but let’s be remember how these rushes have recently ended – badly. Market breakouts like this are normally there for the picking with a ‘buy the dip’ mentality. So do we throw caution into the wind and dive in?

Why the Recession Forecasters are Wrong (For Now)

Clif Droke — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 08:50:40 -0400
Speculation over the direction of the economy continues to take center stage. With the presidential election coming up in 2012, the economy will undoubtedly be the central issue on the campaign trail and will receive even more attention than it has up until now. Many analysts have made waves lately in forecasting a “double dip” recession, with at least a couple of high profile analysts claiming the recession has already arrived.

Cheap Gold Stocks

Adam Hamilton — Sun, 23 Oct 2011 08:52:26 -0400

Not even mighty gold escaped late September’s commodities massacre, so gold stocks never stood a chance. They were sucked into the violent maelstrom of commodities-stock selling, plunging sharply. And as usual when gold is weak, the gold stocks amplified its downside. The result is very cheap gold stocks today, great bargains. Relative to gold, they’ve been hammered back down near panic levels.

Dissecting the Dow: Part Deux

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 08:55:35 -0400

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Second 10 Best Performers

Defensive Groups Still Finding Buyers

Gary Gordon — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 08:17:41 -0400

Many folks are “banking” on a year-end rally. The catalyst? The European Union (EU) will come up with a massive recapitalization (a.k.a. bailout) of their financial institutions.

In theory, if we no longer need to fret the collapse of the EU — the solvency of member nations, the functionality of its banks, etc. – investors should be able to return to corporate earnings. And most should like what they see in the overall scheme of things — profitability, reasonable debt levels, revenue growth and plenty of cash.

A Consumer Guide to Investment Forecasting

Jeff Miller — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 08:03:30 -0400

If you are in investor, you cannot escape forecasting.

Those who criticize predictions are guilty of an obvious blunder. If you are making investment decisions, your conclusions -- and the hidden assumptions and reasoning -- depend on forecasts.

Value Versus Growth

David Merkel — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 07:35:24 -0400

Value Investing and Growth Investing are variants of the greater school of Fundamental Investing. Quoting Buffett from his 1992 Shareholders Letter:

What Charts Say About European Debt Crisis

David Grandey — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 02:09:49 -0400
We have a pending news driven event out of the EU this weekend or maybe just more extend and pretend. So expect a lot of rumbles into it and of course misinformation and rumors too. What is going to happen is going to happen. We have no clue as to what though with the circus parade over there.
We will say this though, at All About Trends we are chartists first and foremost. That said take a look at the two charts below. One is the US dollar and the other the Euro.

Actually these two charts are classic All About Trends FIRST THRUST PATTERNS, one bullish one bearish.

Allocating To MLPs Using Exchange-Traded Products

Gary Gordon — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 11:46:09 -0400

There are 4 exchange-traded vehicles with sufficient volume that a master limited partnership (MLP) enthusiast should consider. More specifically, for those investors who do not wish to pick individual securities, there are several diversified MLP products offering the possibility of capital appreciation and the certainty of a solid income stream.

Checking Up on Market Internals

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 11:41:11 -0400

With US Equity Indexes threatening a breakthrough above key overhead resistance, what are market internals hinting about the current state of the market and the strength of the recent rally?

Let’s take a look, starting with the 10-min chart:

Why I Still Look At FTDs & What Happens When A 1% Drop Follows One

Rob Hanna — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 11:35:34 -0400

MoKhad is no more

Michael Kahn — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 11:31:59 -0400

With the former Libyan leader now captured and rumored dead, let's take a look at how capitalism in the region has fared since Egyptians first threw out Hosni and crew.

A Small Dip In Jobless Claims Keeps Hope (And The Un-Recession) Alive

Jim Picerno — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 11:18:25 -0400

Data Lifts Dollar as Hope for EU Deal Wanes

Kathy Lien — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 10:01:43 -0400

Stocks Still Face Numerous Hurdles

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 10:37:40 -0400

As we mentioned yesterday, a fear-induced buying climax may occur in the coming days as shorts cover and managers sitting on cash move to the “I can’t take it anymore” stage. While a sustained break above the 1,266 to 1,276 range on the S&P 500 would increase the odds of stocks continuing to march higher, evidence still suggests the current move is a bear market rally that will be fully retraced.

Data Making QE3 Tricky

Kathy Lien — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 08:49:35 -0400

Awkward History Lessons

Jim Picerno — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 08:26:37 -0400

Occupy Wall Street: Right Idea, Wrong Address

Dock David Treece — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 04:33:59 -0400

Anyone who hasn’t heard about the Occupy Wall Street protest that has spurred demonstrations across the country obviously hasn’t been paying too much attention to the news lately. While it’s unclear exactly what these protestors want (they’ve admitted they don’t have specific goals), it is plain as day that these people are pretty upset, and rightfully so.

Sometimes It's a Bubble for a Reason

Gary Gordon — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 07:51:03 -0400

Everyone seems to recall the phrase, “irrational exuberance.” The description is most frequently tied to the dot-com frenzy and subsequent bursting of the info-tech bubble at the turn of the century.

Yet Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan first uttered the words on December 5, 1996. In fact, it took nearly 4 more years before the stock balloon popped in March of 2000. Equally worthy of note, the NASDAQ garnered 280% AFTER the Greenspan comment, rocketing from 1300 to 5000 in the time span. 280%!

Energy Follow-up to Monday's Column

Michael Kahn — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 09:49:43 -0400

Sometimes the charts work, eh?

Macroeconomic Advisers: US GDP Rose 0.4% In August

Jim Picerno — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 09:45:36 -0400

Building Your Income Portfolio

Jeff Miller — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 09:42:58 -0400

Investors seeking income face an array of unappetizing choices, especially if they want to keep risk very low. For those with the right attitude and time frame, there is a very attractive solution, but it requires a little work.

Combining well-chosen dividend stocks and covered calls can create income of 8-10%. The risk is quite reasonable.

Bulls Now Have a Stop

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 09:40:19 -0400

When FTDs Occur In Conjunction With 20-Day Highs

Rob Hanna — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 09:10:22 -0400
I discussed the other day that there has never been a Follow Through Day (FTD) that occurred AFTER a new 50-day high. There has also never been a FTD that occurred in conjunction with a new 50-day high. These things changed on Tuesday since the move up was also accompanied by an increase in volume. But there have been some FTDs that occurred in conjunction with 20-day highs. Below is a new study that shows how they fared.

Slim Communes with His Inner Bull

Editorial Staff — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 07:29:50 -0400

IBM: Quick Lessons in Multiple Timeframes, Divergences, and Earnings

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 10:41:53 -0400

Wow – if you missed the post-market action in IBM’s earnings announcement, you missed a huge move that took so many traders by surprise.

While this post will focus mainly on key lessons from the charts, it’s worth noting that trading around earnings increases risk, especially if a stock’s earnings differ greatly from what’s expected… or even in IBM’s case, when earnings are different by mere pennies from expectations ($3.19 reported versus $3.22 expected).

These Dow Jones Blue Chips are Buys Today

Chuck Carnevale — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 10:36:59 -0400

Introduction

When people refer to what the stock market is doing, they are more often than not speaking about the Dow Jones Industrial average. This leading index of 30 high profile stocks serves as a proxy for the overall health of both the economy and the stock market. We have long held that thinking in generalities, runs the risk of causing people to paint all common stocks with the same broad brush.

The New Abnormal: Inflation Expectations & The Stock Market

Jim Picerno — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 10:20:51 -0400

Energy Sector Shows Improved Technicals

Michael Kahn — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 10:11:57 -0400

Here is a chart of the oil ETF that did not make it into my column yesterday on Barron's (Energy Stocks to Fuel Gains).

Central Bank Intervention Drives Major Purchases Of USD

Kathy Lien — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 09:53:59 -0400

Extension of EU Timetable Pressures Stocks

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 09:46:26 -0400

The most important story so far this week - from Bloomberg:

This is the 1st Time SPX Has Rallied to a 50-day High Without One of These

Rob Hanna — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 10:39:42 -0400

The Trouble With Return Anomalies

Jim Picerno — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 10:28:32 -0400

Is the small cap risk premium dead? The question endures for a rather practical reason: sometimes the excess return on small stocks vs. large companies evaporates. No one's ever sure if it'll return. That's the nature of return "anomalies."

Escape from the Trading Range?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 10:16:30 -0400

For several months US stocks have traded within a range of 1120 - 1220, give or take a few points. Active traders who have played this range have done very well so far. It has been a big challenge for two reasons:

The Consequences Of Misplaced Optimism

Kathy Lien — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 10:04:35 -0400

Global Economy at a Crossroads

Jim Picerno — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:59:16 -0400

The Stock Market Spring

Steve Miller — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:42:38 -0400

Voices in My Head

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:18:32 -0400

Every trader has a different definition of noise. I dropped CNBC in favor of music long ago, but I still have days where noise gets to me in the form of staring at price. Waiting for a better entry. Hoping for a better exit. Wondering if I’m going to get my price, and if not, will I cave and accept a not-as-great price?

Impressive Rally Showing Some Signs of Slowing

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 08:51:06 -0400

Heading into the new week, we have four factors that tell us the odds are increasing for the market to pull back soon (Monday or Tuesday):

FACTOR ONE: RECESSION CALL

Greener Pastures

Bob Lang — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 08:40:35 -0400
All we needed was a bit more fear and walking out on the ledge of ‘market death’ to bring everyone back to reality.
All is well here on the homeland and in Europe again – thanks to that great little machine we call the printing press. I’m probably being a bit facetious but the investing world has never been driven by such activities.

Seriously, the economy here in the US seems quite a bit firmer than first thought. The data seems to support a slowdown but not quite the recession that has been talked about of late.

Silver’s Signals Lean Bearish For Stocks & Commodities

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 02:48:12 -0400

Before we review current bull/bear signals from silver, Bloomberg had an on the money comment relative to the efforts in Europe:

No Sign Of Recession In September Retail Sales

Jim Picerno — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 11:45:45 -0400

Any one economic indicator is suspect as a measure of the broad trend, but the updates arrive one at a time and so we must take ‘em as we get ‘em. Taking this morning’s retail sales report at face value suggests that the recession talk of late is premature. Retail purchases rose sharply last month, gaining 1.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis over August. That’s the best month for retail sales since February. Recession where is thy sting?

The Incredible Shrinking VXO

Rob Hanna — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 11:43:04 -0400

The VXO has dropped very strongly over the last week and a half. On Thursday for the 2nd day in a row it closed more than 20% below its 10ma. Looking back to 1986 I was only able to find 3 other instances where this occurred. While it’s dangerous to draw solid conclusions from just 3 instances I decided to show them below:

Oil Stocks Deeply Oversold 2

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 11:27:53 -0400

The recent recession-fear craze hammered commodities prices, crushing the stocks of the companies that produce them. Commodities stocks were wholesale abandoned by frightened traders, left bludgeoned and bleeding. But driven to deeply-oversold levels, they got incredibly cheap relative to their underlying fundamentals and bull-market precedent. Oil stocks are a shining example of this great opportunity.

China ETFs “Trampoline” Off Of The Bear’s Bottom

Gary Gordon — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 11:23:52 -0400

The bear has been ruthless to investors in Chinese companies. For example, from an early November 2010 multi-year peak to an October 2011 valley, the iShares FTSE China 25 Fund (FXI) plummeted -36.6%.

Since those October 3 lows, however, several facets of the Chinese “story” have become more favorable. First, analysts worldwide began upgrading China stocks on historically low valuations. (Note: P/E ratios for most China ETFs are below 10.)

On Steering Clear of Indicators

Jeff White — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 11:16:49 -0400
Would-be traders all tend to focus on indicators. The sense, I suppose, is that if there’s just some magic indicator to be added to the chart, then trading becomes easy.
They’re way off.

Jump in Retail Sales Equals Stronger Q3 GDP

Kathy Lien — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 11:12:34 -0400

Crude Running Into Resistance

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 10:28:49 -0400

What’s going on with Crude Oil at the moment?

Let’s take a look at the Daily Resistance Level along with a “step-inside” perspective from the intraday chart.

Let’s start with the prevailing Daily Chart trend – it’s a downtrend as evidenced by the progressive series of lower price lows and lower price highs, which is confirmed by the EMA Orientation (the 20 EMA consistently resides under the 50 EMA).

Crude Running Into Resistance

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 10:28:23 -0400

What’s going on with Crude Oil at the moment?

Let’s take a look at the Daily Resistance Level along with a “step-inside” perspective from the intraday chart.

Let’s start with the prevailing Daily Chart trend – it’s a downtrend as evidenced by the progressive series of lower price lows and lower price highs, which is confirmed by the EMA Orientation (the 20 EMA consistently resides under the 50 EMA).

Much Better... But....

Gary Kaltbaum — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 08:40:39 -0400

On October 4th, the day the market put in its lows, I told you “Getting past that, I am considering today something akin to a near-term washout as the lows were undercut and then got back above. This serves to get rid of many late sellers.” I then went on to say that I thought “A” low was being put in.

The Sidelines is a Position

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 04:04:35 -0400

Naysayers Beware: This Market is Currently Cheap

Chuck Carnevale — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 09:49:59 -0400

Introduction

Jury Still Out on Recession Risk

Jim Picerno — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 09:32:48 -0400

Small Data Improvements Fail to Inspire

Kathy Lien — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 09:22:11 -0400

Behind the Breakout in USD/JPY

Kathy Lien — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 11:04:56 -0400

Currencies and equities are trading sharply higher this morning but the move that we are most interested in is USD/JPY because after consolidating for the past month, the currency pair is finally breaking out and enjoying its strongest rally since early September. The rise in U.S. yields is the main reason why the dollar is performing so well against the Yen and yet so poorly against the euro and other currencies. U.S. ten year yields have risen to a one month high and for once this is a reflection of optimism because global equities and bond yields have also moved higher.

Finally! From Macro to Micro

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 10:33:14 -0400

What Tuesday's Tight Range Implies

Rob Hanna — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 09:41:51 -0400

Saving The Euro: Part 16-A/4.b (subsection F)

Jim Picerno — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 09:32:08 -0400

Managing a currency by popular vote every other week (or day) is water torture and almost surely doomed to fail. But with no other choice, the odyssey that is the euro rolls on, which means that the voting, the deal making, the deliberations, the polling--the rise and fall of governments--endures.

Screening for Wishlist Candidates

Gary Gordon — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 09:29:48 -0400

Are you wondering if the market can go significantly higher by year end? Maybe your question should take the U.S. market’s remarkable resilience into account.

Specifically, the S&P 500 has not closed in bear market territory. In fact, the large-cap barometer would have to close below 1096 to get there. Yet, with the exception of a few scary moments, the gauge has demonstrated its strong support at 1120. (It closed at 1195 on Tuesday, October 11).

Commodity ETF With Asian Twist On Tap

Michael Johnston — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 08:38:17 -0400

Patterns and Reasons

Ray Barros — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 08:31:20 -0400

In the early years, as I struggled to make my mark as a trader, I made certain choices that landed me in front of Dr George Lianos, a consultant psychiatrist-psychotherapist in private practice in Sydney, Australia. I learned much in my ten or so years with George. One idea I found particularly useful:

Nothing But Noise

Michael Kahn — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 08:29:06 -0400

Bloggers are supposed to write about stuff that either excite them or bugs them. Politics, religion, sex, technology, bureaucracy, health, food, you name it. Here, I am supposed to write about stuff that impacts your money.

Here is a secret - it is getting very difficult to get excited about anything. All markets are going nowhere in a Brownian dance of futility. For all you who took Shakespeare in college, Brownian motion is the random movement of atoms or particles as forces act on them from all directions. Net net is that they go nowhere.

Rep. Ron Paul on Potential European Bank Bailouts

Editorial Staff — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 07:27:52 -0400

Increased Volatility

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 04:28:39 -0400

Increased Volatility

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 04:28:33 -0400

Wait For A Pullback Before Making New Buys

David Grandey — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 01:26:29 -0400

Pressure on the EUR

Kathy Lien — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 10:48:17 -0400

After Monday's strong rally, the euro and other high yielding currencies are trading slightly lower against the U.S. dollar this morning. Once again, there are no major U.S. economic data on the calendar today but the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting will be released this afternoon, and the details of which could draw the market's focus back to the U.S. dollar. Until the minutes are released however, investors will spend most of their time thinking about Greece and the Eurozone.

Steve Jobs' Legacy Will Live On

Chuck Carnevale — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 10:31:41 -0400

7 ETFs Should Conditions Continue to Improve

Gary Gordon — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 10:14:08 -0400

Since 7/25/2011, market participants have been dealing with extraordinary volatility. In fact, for the past 11 weeks, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hadn’t closed below a 50-day moving average.

Until now, that is. On 10/10/2011, the current price of the VIX closed below a key trendline.

Day Trading Gaps

Jeff White — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 10:00:30 -0400

Day traders love to fade gaps, but it’s not always the right thing to do. In this video, I’ll point out some key traits of big gaps to watch out for when deciding on initiating gap-fill trades.

Day trading gaps can be quite lucrative, particularly when it happens early in the session. However, there’s a flip side to it which must be considered – and it costs many traders money to ignore the warnings.

Lessons From Last Year's Trading Range

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 08:33:54 -0400

I’m a huge believer that “history repeats,” and one can often see similar situations developing now that formed in the past.

True, nothing repeats with exactitude, but you can often learn lessons – mainly about assumptions and outcomes – from studying similar chart formations that have developed in the past.

Let’s take a look at something that developed in 2010 that looks eerily similar to what’s going on right now:

Staying the Course

Michael Kahn — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 11:21:32 -0400

No, not what your broker told you as stocks imploded in 2008. Perhaps instead of writing "staying the course" I should have written "staying with the big picture." And my big picture says that we are in a cyclical bear market within an ongoing secular bear market.

What will we learn from Q3 earnings?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 10:40:01 -0400

With all of the Europe news, political noise-making, and the ongoing economic debate, it is easy to lose the focus on what really matters: Corporate earnings.

Can We Avoid a Financial Train Wreck?

John Nyaradi — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 10:35:46 -0400

EUR Shoots Higher on Prospect of a Deal By End of Oct

Kathy Lien — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 10:14:22 -0400

With the heads of the two largest countries in the Eurozone committing to reach an agreement and produce a new package of measures to stabilize the region before the November G20 Summit, there is a general sense of optimism in the market that has boosted the euro and other high yielding currencies. In fact, we have not seen such a strong recovery in risk currencies since August.

Another Good Low?

Gary Kaltbaum — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 10:08:10 -0400

Bullish Set-Up vs. Europe, Downtrend

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 09:41:59 -0400

For the past eight weeks, this market has been difficult for bulls and bears alike. I do not recall a more difficult two month stretch in terms of volatility and the magnitude of the ups and downs. Here are the peak-to-trough losses for a few ETFs since the spring 2011 highs:

Why Shorting In This Environment Can Be Dangerous

Rob Hanna — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 08:09:53 -0400

One of the most important and largely ignored aspects of market analysis is putting the pattern or indicator readings you are examining into proper context. Is the market in an uptrend? A downtrend? At new highs? At new lows? It can make a big difference in how the market will react to setups.

Trading Range Presents Opportunities

Bob Lang — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 08:06:42 -0400

Hyper-Oversold Markets

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 01:17:40 -0400

Part II - Stocks: Like March 2008 or August 2008?

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 09:12:06 -0400

Investors Refuse to Learn Old Lessons

Dock David Treece — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 08:59:20 -0400

Commodities & Stocks are Back 10/5/11

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 04:56:38 -0400

Quick Fix In Europe? Dream On

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 09:03:33 -0400

Thanks for the Help Benny 10/4/11

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 08:57:40 -0400

Stocks Are Going Lower - Deflation Assets Higher

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 08:41:17 -0400

A Complete Rundown Of The Past Five Months

Gary Kaltbaum — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 12:36:17 -0400

Stock Market Goblins of October (SPY, DIA, QQQ)

John Nyaradi — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 12:31:25 -0400

Interstate Approaching?

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 12:25:01 -0400

WHAT ABOUT JOBS?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 12:19:39 -0400

Few would question the importance of improving employment prospects, especially given the fragile state of the recovery.

FX: Soft Start To The Fourth Quarter

Kathy Lien — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 12:06:21 -0400

Industrials Telling a Bad Tale

Michael Kahn — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 11:07:18 -0400

Here is a paraphrased headline about industrial stock Ingersoll-Rand from the weekend:

And “so far, companies are being punished for pre-announcements.” Ingersoll-Rand Co. shares hit a two-year low Friday after the company cut its third-quarter profit outlook.

Updating Key Trading Range Levels

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 11:04:24 -0400

Greece, Recession Odds, & Technicals All Bearish

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 10:57:08 -0400

While inspectors from the International Monetary Fund, EU and European Central Bank, known as the troika, are in Athens to review the books, Reuters reported Sunday:

Greece will miss deficit targets set just months ago in a massive bailout package, sources said citing a budget draft being adopted by the cabinet on Sunday, in a setback in Europe’s efforts to stave off the country’s bankruptcy.

The Market Smells Deflation

Clif Droke — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 10:47:34 -0400

Beginning of Month Effect In Uptrends Vs. Downtrends

Rob Hanna — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 10:11:35 -0400

Channeling Past Stock Market Declines

Steve Miller — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 08:53:10 -0400

A Million Reasons to Sell...

Bob Lang — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 06:55:55 -0400

US Oil Boom

Scott Wright — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 05:26:31 -0400

With the world forging ahead in this modern industrial and technological era, the king of commodities continues to flex its muscles as the most indispensable of resources. Oil, the lubricant of global commerce, is seeing record levels of demand.

Today’s Epiphany

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 05:16:54 -0400

Trading Intraday Creeper Trend Divergance Reversal

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 11:25:34 -0400

Previously, I explained what a “Creeper Trend” is, how it develops, and – if you’re willing to feel uncomfortable – how to trade it (it’s not your typical trade set-up).

I wanted to follow-up that lesson with a great example of a “Creeper Trend” formation (trade entry), Trend Reversal (with excellent positive momentum divergence example), and re-formation of a Creeper Trend in the OPPOSITE direction.

The Slow Grind

Jim Picerno — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 11:19:08 -0400

When Will We Revert Back to the Mean?

Gary Gordon — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 11:13:58 -0400

In the 5-year bull market from 10/2002 through 9/2007, large-cap indexes typically carried price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios ranging from 17-18. Perma-bears harped on these “valuations” throughout the period, expressing that major benchmarks had not reverted back to a historical average of 15.

With the real estate lending bubble bursting in dramatic fashion, stock assets plummeted 40%. Separately, the P/E price tag for the S&P 500 not only reverted to the arithmetic mean, it had dropped into single digits by March of 2009.

Trading Roadblocks

Jeff White — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 10:23:46 -0400
Few things are as frustrating in trading as seeing a position start to take off, only to stop or reverse. When a trade hits the proverbial wall, it stops moving according to plan and quickly becomes dead money.
Nevermind the fact that you were long in the midst of an uptrend in the stock, and in a generally strong market environment. It’s time to bail out.

What if you had seen it coming?

Short-Term Conviction Faltering For Bulls

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 09:46:29 -0400

FX: Positioning for Next Week

Kathy Lien — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 09:42:13 -0400

How to Tell When a Stock May Have Topped

David Grandey — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 09:09:05 -0400

Look at CRM when it TOPPED.

Large Gaps Up After Very Large Down Days

Rob Hanna — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 10:31:59 -0400

In my last post I looked at how SPY has performed from open to close when a 2% gain was followed by a gap up of at least 1%. Today we are seeing another 1% gap up, but this time it is on the heels of a 2% loss. So I thought it would be interesting to examine this scenario. Results of the last test suggested the open to close action favored a move lower, which is what played out on Tuesday. Below is the general stats for setups like today.

Risk Appetite Lifted by US Data and German Vote

Kathy Lien — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 10:29:59 -0400
Better than expected U.S. economic data and the smooth passage of the amendments to the European Financial Stability Facility in Germany helped to boost risk appetite across the financial markets. U.S. jobless claims fell 37k to 391k from last week to the lowest level since April. Normally, the dip below 400k would be extremely encouraging but even the Labor Department does not believe in the improvement. A department official attributed the large decline last not to stability in the labor market, but rather technical issues and seasonal adjustments.

Jobless Claims Drop Sharply. Can We Believe It This Time?

Jim Picerno — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 10:28:15 -0400

New jobless claims dropped last week by a hefty 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 391,000. That’s the biggest weekly tumble since May, pushing new filings for jobless benefits under the 400,000 mark for only the second time in 25 weeks. It looks good, and it surprised a lot of economists. But let's refrain just yet from declaring this as the start of something big.

“Cash Dash” May Suggest That Selling Is Nearing Completion

Gary Gordon — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 10:25:28 -0400

In all likelihood, September will mark the 5th straight month of losses for major stock benchmarks. Yet the real downtrend did not begin in May. In fact, several big time indexes hit brand new multi-year highs in July of 2011.

A Crisis in the Making?

Ray Barros — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 10:21:02 -0400

While the Western markets are focusing on the woes of Europe and the US, there is a possible crisis brewing in China that is likely to have far reaching consequences for S-E Asia, Australia and Canada - given that the Chinese have been extensive and expansive buyers of property there.

Greentown has been in the news. Who? Greentown is a trust that lends money to developers. To understand the drama around Greentown, let me provide some context.

How to Profit from Extreme Volatility

Jeff Miller — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 10:17:58 -0400

The right move is so often the most difficult.

On a theoretical basis, everyone knows to buy when others are fearful, to be contrarian, to avoid panic.

On a practical basis, hardly anyone has the discipline and courage to act.

Markets Shoulder Loads of Worry

Dock David Treece — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 08:36:54 -0400

Durable Goods Orders Hold Their Ground In August

Jim Picerno — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 11:39:13 -0400

Is a Double-Dip in the Works?

Ray Barros — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 10:01:54 -0400

In his latest blog (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/are-we-headed-recessdepress-ion-answer-9-simple-charts), "Tyler Durden" has come up with some traditional charts that suggest the US is headed for a double dip.

Big Money Flees Emerging Market Bond ETFs

Gary Gordon — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 09:37:31 -0400

Foreign bonds have always been one of my favorite areas for genuine diversification. Historically speaking, foreign bonds do not correlate negatively or positively with stocks.

Until recently, however, ETF investors had slim pickings. You had vehicles such as SPDR DB International Gov’t Inflation Protected (WIP) as well as SPDR Barclays International Treasury (BWX). Yet WIP and BWX experienced enormous difficulties during the U.S. subprime disaster; moreover, neither looks fit for consumption in the present-day sovereign debt crisis.

Just Saying....

Michael Kahn — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 09:20:28 -0400

Just a reminder that the market is well below its 200-day exponential average. This is different than violating it by a small amount.

Market Losing Patience with the Euro

Kathy Lien — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 09:14:31 -0400

How to Trade Creeper Trends

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 09:07:02 -0400

Many traders report difficulty in trading “Creeper Trends” or “Oozing Trends” that neither give reversal signals nor safe entry signals.

Let’s take a quick look at the @ES (S&P 500) and @CL (Crude Oil) Futures contracts to see the overnight action that provided the framework for today’s continued “creeper” intraday trend moves on September 27th.

First, the Overnight @ES Chart:

1180 Wins Again

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 08:45:24 -0400

For the 9th straight week, our grand index $SPX has kept its standing date with 1180. I shouldn’t be shocked anymore, but these one way intraweek moves continue to put me in head-spinning mode. The simple has again outweighed the complex, and despite my desire to extrapolate a trend I remain opinionless enough to build around the obvious attraction to 1180 going back to September 2008.

Is this Rally Real?

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 04:34:23 -0400

One Bank to Rule Them All

Editorial Staff — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 01:59:42 -0400

What's Up with the Risk Rally?

Kathy Lien — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 09:20:41 -0400

The #1 Question I am Getting

Gary Kaltbaum — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 11:18:15 -0400

The #1 question being asked of me is “what the heck is going on with the markets?” Good question. This question alludes to the fact we continue to get massive gaps to the upside and downside…massive swings to the upside and downside…sudden moves to the upside and downside.

I believe there is a simple answer. There are just too many outside influences right now playing with the emotions of the market. On a daily basis, we have heard:

Be Prepared to Be Deceived on the Europe Story

Jeff Miller — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 10:54:39 -0400

Here is the question for individual investors: Do you want confirmation of your biases, or do you want profits?

On the Berkshire Hathaway Buyback

David Merkel — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 10:49:54 -0400

He finally decided to do it. He’s going to buy back stock.

BarroMetrics Views: A Question of Flexibility II

Ray Barros — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 10:38:54 -0400

What to Buy if Europe Actually Gets its Act Together

Gary Gordon — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 10:31:46 -0400

Most believe that an agreed-upon plan for the Eurozone will not go far enough to increase economic growth in the region. And nearly everyone expects Greece to “officially” default. What’s more, if tighten-the-belt austerity doesn’t sit well with disenchanted Greek workers, how will it sit in the stomachs of 2-hour, lunch-breaking Italian employees?

“Oh Gary,” you say, shaking your head. “Pray tell, sir, your reason for raising this sea-storm on a day when the Dow surges 270+ points!”

Covering My Shorts

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 10:03:54 -0400

Keep This in Your Back Pocket

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 09:47:00 -0400

With the US Equity Market sitting currently atop a longer-term Fibonacci cluster level, let’s take a look at the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 in terms of their recent “Bear Market” and “Bull Market” Fibonacci retracement levels for reference.

Let’s start first with the S&P 500:

APPLE: Something is Rotten

Steve Miller — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 08:47:30 -0400

Brass Orbs

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 05:01:05 -0400

Oil Stocks Undervalued 2

Adam Hamilton — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 02:26:41 -0400

ETF Traders Are Welcome, While ETF Investors Need To Wait

Gary Gordon — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 12:47:47 -0400

Tactical ETF Review: 9.26.2011

Jim Picerno — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 12:35:21 -0400

BarroMetrics Views: A Question of Flexibility

Ray Barros — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 12:15:57 -0400

Some Potentially Bearish Inside (Day) Information

Rob Hanna — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 10:04:19 -0400

I’ve shown before that inside days in long-term downtrends are often short-term bearish. (An inside day is a day like Friday where the market makes a higher low and a lower high than the day before.) So what if that inside day closes higher and comes immediately after a 20-day low like we are seeing now?

How Likely is a Recession?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 09:44:18 -0400

A basic lesson on getting attention is how to frame the question. If you are interviewing a corporate executive you can ask either:

A) How is your business doing? Do you see any need to expand? Are you changing the size of your work force?

B) Do you think we are in a recession?

The Only Chart that Matters

John Nyaradi — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 09:33:41 -0400
After a tumultuous week of wealth destruction and volatility in global stock markets, with the Dow Jones (DIA) suffering its worst week since the dark days of 2008, only one chart matters as shell shocked investors face more peril ahead.

Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com

Cluster Targets for the S&P 500

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 09:14:20 -0400

With markets in a turbulent/volatile phase on the lower frames, it can be very helpful to slow the pace down by pulling up to a higher timeframe.

Let’s take a look at two major Fibonacci Cluster levels that help us make sense of the current S&P 500 index activity:

Why the Dollar Could Continue Higher

Kathy Lien — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 09:10:17 -0400

Gold: The Correction is Only Beginning

Steve Miller — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 08:23:04 -0400

News Drives Market Action

Bob Lang — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 07:56:31 -0400

The title of today’s piece pretty much sums up what we’ve seen this year. What normally is seen – accumulation, volume trends and patterns – is unmistakably missing. From the violent revolutions in the Middle East to the tsunami in Japan, the European Crisis to the US debt ceiling mess – we have had our fill of macro events influencing decisions. In a world of uncertain outcomes investors and traders find safety on the sidelines until issues are resolved. Today’s trade is as tough as we’ve ever seen.

Advice to a Friend, Again

David Merkel — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 10:27:30 -0400

A friend of mine asked me the following:
I read an article or a comment from a blog that inked to your sight. the statement was akin to this. ” The market is dead. The lack of growth over ten years shows the deadness of the market. If the market had kept pace with inflation over the last ten years it would be at 32,000 not the 11,000 we see today.”

FX: What We're Watching Today

Kathy Lien — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 10:03:41 -0400

Crisis High 2011 and the Next Credit Crash

Clif Droke — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 09:37:09 -0400

Downside Potential In Stocks And The Euro

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 09:10:16 -0400

Global leaders continue to make statements, vows, and promises, but they have done next to nothing in terms of concrete actions. According to Bloomberg:

Is it 2008 or 2009?

Jeff Miller — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 08:59:01 -0400

Last night I noted that PBS did not even lead with the Fed decision. I was attempting to help people regain focus. So much for that idea! Tonight, even PBS led the news with a story on the stock market and the Fed.

A good way to focus on the problem is Ginger or Mary Ann 2008 or 2009?

The 2008 Analogy

5 Dividend Growth Stocks Worth Eyeing

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 08:43:11 -0400

Introduction

Risk Off

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 05:31:23 -0400

Breakdown, Go Ahead, Give it to Me

Michael Kahn — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 11:50:30 -0400

I rarely read the online comments to my columns on Barrons and especially not on Marketwatch. Anyone with a functioning keyboard can rip anyone's work to shreds without really backing it up with proof. If I need to be told I'm an idiot I'll just ask my teenagers.

Cross-Market Check on the Fed Day Selloff

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 11:42:38 -0400

What does the current Cross-Market landscape look like after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting/announcement?

Let’s take a look to see the current structure along with the big market winners and losers.

Here’s the intraday Cross-Market Landscape:

Losing Confidence in Central Banks Means Capitulation

Kathy Lien — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 10:59:29 -0400

More Causal Confusion: The FOMC Decision and the Market Reaction

Jeff Miller — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 10:47:04 -0400

Making sound investment decisions requires an understanding of what is going on. Unless you are using a mechanical model, you need an intellectual framework for interpreting news events.

22 Reasons The S&P 500 Is Headed Below 1,050

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 10:25:23 -0400

There are numerous fundamental and technical reasons supporting a move below 1,050 on the S&P 500:

The Magnet Being Tested

Derek Hernquist — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 10:09:21 -0400

When to Make Anticipatory Trades

Jeff White — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 09:12:42 -0400

I’m not an anticipatory trader, at least not in the establish-a-position-and-hope-i’m-proven-correct way. I really prefer confirmation of the patterns I’m seeing to trigger actual entries on trades.

But not all of us are that way all the time, and that’s alright. So I want to clarify which kinds of setups are usually worth anticipatory entries, vs. those where confirmation should be seen first.

The Next Leg Has Begun

Gary Kaltbaum — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 08:52:57 -0400

Greetings from Orlando airport as I head out west for the next few days.

Economic Risks

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 04:25:17 -0400

Fed Comes Up Empty

Kathy Lien — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 04:00:49 -0400

Is Apple Behind New Fund Flows Into Large Cap Growth ETFs?

Gary Gordon — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 10:29:38 -0400

In spite of significant corrective activity in U.S. stock assets… in spite of bears clawing away at a number of foreign stock assets… the most popular company on the planet remains unharmed. In fact, shares of Apple hit a new all-time high on September 20, 2011.

The Decline & Fall Of Inflation Expectations... Again

Jim Picerno — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 10:14:23 -0400

The Federal Reserve’s two-day FOMC meeting on monetary policy in in full swing. Nothing unusual about that. It’s just the latest installment of this regularly scheduled confab. What's different, however, is the growing political pressure aimed at influencing the outcome. “In an unusual move, Republican leaders of the House and Senate are urging Federal Reserve policymakers against taking further steps to lower interest rates,” the AP reports.

Counting Down to the Fed

Kathy Lien — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 09:29:12 -0400

Lanthanoid Breakdown

Michael Kahn — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 08:36:34 -0400

Monday, I wrote in my column for Barron's that the breakdown in copper was not a good thing for stocks. Of course, the edited headline was a more radical Copper Slump Points to Stock Sell-Off. But direct correlation aside, the evidence of a slowing economy is growing by the day.

Fed Days During the Weakest Week

Rob Hanna — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 08:07:24 -0400

For those who may not be aware, Fed Days have had a strong bullish tendency over the years, but as I mentioned on Monday, the week post op-ex in September has historically been the worst week of the year for stocks. Below I have listed all Fed Days that have fallen during this week in September.

Market Forecasting Fed Disappointment

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 06:37:23 -0400

As shown in the chart below, the Dow was having a rough day on August 9 as it waited for the Fed’s statement to be released. After digesting the pledge to keep interest rates low “at least through mid-2013”, stocks spent the rest of the day rallying.

Risk NOT Reward

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 05:55:24 -0400

QE3 Might Not be the Straw that Breaks the Dollar's Back

Kathy Lien — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 01:35:34 -0400

A Few Leaders Break Out

Gary Kaltbaum — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 11:22:00 -0400
I do not know what this portends for the whole market but some of my favorite growth stocks have been breaking into new high ground. Normally, this is good news for the rest of the market but so far, most of the market looks horrid. So…keeping it in the file manage that APPLE (AAPL), AMAZON (AMZN), MASTERCARD (MA), POLO RALPH LAUREN (RL) and a few others have moved out. Just keep in mind, they are moving out of late stage bases…so watching closely. Late stage bases are more prone to failure. Just noting a potential good sign.

AAPL Three Ways

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 11:04:45 -0400

If you were paying attention to the deteriorating economic headlines, you might not have noticed a bright spot among the bearish headlines.

Apple (AAPL) shares broke this week to new lifetime highs after giving a “triangle” breakout buy signal on the Daily Chart with a supportive structure from the higher timeframes.

Let’s take a look at the Three Timeframes in Apple (AAPL) and learn a few strategies along the way:

Traders Placing Bets in Front of FOMC

Kathy Lien — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 10:52:19 -0400

What's Wrong With Brazil ETFs?

Gary Gordon — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 10:26:49 -0400

Last October, enthusiasm for Brazil had reached epic proportions. And why not? Not only had the iShares MSCI Brazil Fund (EWZ) risen 175% off its November 2008 lows, but the country constitutes one of the essential building blocks in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, China, India) fortress.

Indeed, the country boasts the world’s 7th largest economy, a consumption-oriented middle class and a treasure trove of natural resources. What’s more, Brazil figures to see a surge in tourism as well as infrastructure commitment due to the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Olympics.

We Don't Need No Stinkin' Inflation

Clif Droke — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 10:04:41 -0400

The Rapidly Declinging 50 Day Moving Average

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 09:51:23 -0400

Of course the QQQ’s have already challenged theirs…

Second Greek Bailout May Not Stabilize Markets

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 09:27:45 -0400

Financial markets tend to get fixated on a small number of issues, which often leads to questionable decision making for investors. It is important to look at a scenario where the second Greek bailout package is approved. The immediate question for the markets would become, “Now what?” The odds are fairly low approval of the second bailout will stabilize the bond, currency, and stock markets for an extended period of time. The excerpts below shed light on this concept:

Internals Weakening Ahead of Key Events

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 09:15:53 -0400

What are chart traders watching as we start the week of September 19th?

Let’s take a quick look at the key overhead resistance level on the Daily S&P 500 chart and step inside the market with a view of intraday Market Internals:

Positioning Ahead of Event Risks

Kathy Lien — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 08:57:35 -0400

Roll with the Punches

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 06:27:13 -0400

The Result of Churning

Gary Kaltbaum — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 10:23:25 -0400

On Thursday, I told you the market was starting to churn. In other words, lots of trading without progress. This usually leads to downside. Some have said that was wrong because Friday was an up day. Maybe it was an up day for a few indices…but for the small-caps, the mid-caps, lots of churning was going on.

Tax Hikes and Greek Woes Spell Trouble

Kathy Lien — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 10:21:03 -0400

The Weakest Week

Rob Hanna — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 09:55:53 -0400
The week following September options expiration has historically been the most bearish week of the year. I showed some detailed stats in my weekend report, but below is a graphic that shows how consistently weak this week has been.

Central Banks Try to Prevent a Greek Tragedy

John Nyaradi — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 09:43:21 -0400

Fast moving developments in the “Greek Tragedy” pressure central banks and governments to prevent a Greek default and a potential tidal wave of financial calamity across Europe and the rest of the world.

3 Reasons To Curb Your Enthusiasm

Gary Gordon — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 07:18:50 -0400

If you’ve been a reader for years, you know that I regularly call out “perma-bull” or “perma-bear” thinking. I don’t believe that it is sensible to listen to a financial adviser who always sees the glass as half-full or follow someone who always sees the glass as half-empty.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Expecting Magic from the Fed?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 09:15:10 -0400

Many are expecting the Fed meeting this week to produce something big. Speculation abounds.

To get some perspective on this, please consider the following quotation from 2005. The statement comes from someone who is obviously aware of potential asset bubbles, and thinks that the Fed should act in response:

China / Market Action Question Stock Rally’s Staying Power

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 08:59:56 -0400

Regardless of what happens in Europe, stocks are not the place to be if a recession is around the corner. The odds of a recession are increasing. A bearish economic outlook is supported in Friday’s Wall Street Journal:

Is There Something More Than QE3 Frontrunning Going On?

Bob Lang — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 08:50:59 -0400

Some Encouraging Signs, But...

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 08:46:13 -0400

Sometimes I enjoy trying to game the often fast-moving price action, but often a snapshot approach serves me better. Like an old friend you haven’t seen in a decade, you can judge the changing state of the market easier when you haven’t stared at it in awhile. Only a trading range environment gives us this opportunity to compare today vs. older days, so why not take advantage?

Exagerated Fears over Europe Creating Opportunities

Adam Hamilton — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 08:16:42 -0400

Europe has become something of a four-letter word among American investors and speculators lately. Weak European stock action has been mesmerizing stock-index-futures traders here in the States. They dump US stock-index futures in sympathy whenever Europe is selling off. This in turn spawns bearish sentiment and weak opens in the US markets. Europe is the epicenter of US stock fears these days.

Fed Anticipation

Matthew Bradbard — Sun, 18 Sep 2011 09:44:25 -0400

S&P 500 Stuck in the Mud Without the Banks

Jeff White — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 11:43:22 -0400
The notion of the S&P 500 running higher without the participation of banks reminds me of Dana Carvey’s George Bush impression on SNL… “Not gaah duht.”
The financials make up roughly 14% of the weighting of the S&P 500, but they carry possibly more from a psychological standpoint. Traders are conditioned to check the fin’s when the Spoos are on the go, and lately, the participation has been downright pathetic.

Trading Levels in Financials: XLF FAS and FAZ

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 11:36:09 -0400

We’ve been hearing a lot of attention – as usual – on the Financial sector (particularly in Europe), so let’s take a brief moment to see the key chart/trading levels we’re watching on the popular XLF Financial Sector ETF and then peek at the wild 3x leveraged financial funds FAS (3x Bullish) and FAZ (3x Bearish).

Let’s focus most of our chart-work on the XLF Financial Fund:

Confidence Improves, Investors Dumped Dollars in July

Kathy Lien — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 11:33:45 -0400

Brent soars vs. West Texas

Michael Kahn — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 11:11:56 -0400

This chart has an interesting look:

Why You Should Sell Bonds and Gold and Buy Growth

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 11:05:10 -0400

Introduction

Lego Lessons: The EU Crisis

Editorial Staff — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 09:26:07 -0400

Re-entering the Same Trade

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 05:44:13 -0400

Stocks Higher as Central Banks Provide Liquidity

Jim Koford — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 04:30:58 -0400

Will CPI Influence Fed's Decisions?

Kathy Lien — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 03:11:47 -0400

Mostly Bullish Consolidation

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 01:43:55 -0400

Looks like price is breaking the midpoint of its multi-week upward channel. Internals are largely positive, but tick has kept a slight lid on a breakout above yesterday’s highs for now. Maybe interesting to initiate short soon, but I’d wait for confirmation, path of least resistance is higher.

Big in Japan

Michael Pettis — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 12:14:09 -0400

In the past two years a lot of analysts have been warning that the US and/or Europe are about to turn “Japanese”. By this I guess they mean that very high levels of debt are going to set the stage for one or two decades of economic stagnation and zero growth.

How Much More Can This Economy Take?

Jim Picerno — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 12:06:00 -0400

Initial jobless claims are moving higher again. It’s not terribly surprising after another summer of economic discontent. In recent weeks there was some hope that new filings for unemployment benefits (a key leading indicator) was stuck in neutral, albeit at elevated levels. Now even that thin reed seems to be giving way as the numbers edge higher. Maybe it's noise; maybe we're in another one of those extended head fakes that have plagued these numbers several times in the recent past. Maybe, maybe, maybe.

Trading and Myopia

Ray Barros — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 11:55:34 -0400

Currency ETFs Forecast More Trouble In The Works

Gary Gordon — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 11:45:59 -0400

The motion picture, “Contagion,” tracks the movement of a lethal virus that kills millions in a matter of days. Will the worldwide community come up with a cure? Or will the pandemic spread, annihilating every creature in its path?

I don’t know the answer… I haven’t seen the movie. In fact, I don’t even plan to see the film because I feel like I’ve seen it before.

Finding the Best Information about Europe

Jeff Miller — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 11:26:45 -0400

Every day US equity investors awaken and check futures trading and the latest news from Europe. What might seem like small tidbits of information have major effects on the total market cap for US stocks. It may not make sense, but it is the reality.

In this environment, it is important to ask: Whom do you trust?

The answer is more elusive than we might think.

Is The Euro Crisis Over Or Just Getting Started?

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 11:14:53 -0400

Central bankers have provided liquidity with today’s announcement; it does nothing to address the real problems of solvency in Greece, Italy, Spain, etc. (not to mention the banks). In the last bear market, stocks rallied significantly after similar announcements (numerous times) only to see 100% of those gains evaporate once reality set back in.

Another Zero For August Economic Activity

Jim Picerno — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 08:45:02 -0400

Retail sales last month were essentially unchanged, offering another sign that the economy has slowed. The flat performance mirrors the stagnation in jobs creation for August. Zero and zero add up to a discouraging outlook for the economy. Nonetheless, let’s be fair and recognize that the annual trend in retail sales still looks robust.

Shun the Snake Oil

Dock David Treece — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 08:33:08 -0400

Morning Drip 09.15.11

Editorial Staff — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 08:16:56 -0400

good morning – the Europe is SAVED (!!) rally continues and lots of data on tap

dj futs: +63.27; sp futs: +6.82; naz futs: +15.8

hong kong: +0.71%
japan: +1.76%
china: -0.23%

uk: +1.9%
germany: +2.31%
france: +2.27%

euro: +0.38% to 1.3793
gold: -1.22% to 1804.2
oil: +0.49% to 89.35
10 year yields 2.051, up 68bps

dollar index -0.29% to 76.608

data so far:

Back in the Saddle

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 06:36:37 -0400

Gary K on Fox Business

Editorial Staff — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 02:55:16 -0400

Gary Kaltbaum was on Fox Business talking current market conditions. Check it out...

Offense / Defense Index Check-Up

Michael Kahn — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 11:57:26 -0400

Over the years I've used a chart that tries to measure how offensive or defensive the market feels. Colleague Boris Simonder introduced me tot eh concept and I've been using readily available ETFs to calculate my own version. The idea is that when tech and cyclicals are in the lead the market feels good. And when healthcare and staples are in the lead, the market does not feel so good.

Long-Term % Change Charts of XIV and VXX

Rob Hanna — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 10:38:12 -0400

I saw the other day that UBS is launching 12 new VIX-based ETFs. Today I thought I’d show some interesting charts of VXX (IPath short-term VIX) and XIV (VelocityShares Inverse VIX short-term). These are not run by UBS, but they do use a similar approach to the UBS ETFs that are coming out.

Sizing Up Current Risk Premiums

Jim Picerno — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 09:32:13 -0400

Forecasting risk premiums is a dirty business, but it’s necessary unless you’re truly a buy-and-hold investor with a very long time horizon. How many individuals fit into that category? Very few is probably a good estimate. For the rest of us, developing some intuition about expected risk premiums—the returns that are left after subtracting a risk-free rate a la Treasury bills—is useful, perhaps essential. It can be dangerous as well, but that's the nature of toiling in risk.

Trying To Solve the Same Puzzle

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 09:27:02 -0400

Anyone who follows my stuff knows I’m fond of price analysis. For me, it’s a shortcut to the fundamental momentum and, more importantly, allows me to lay out clear rules on when I will or won’t buy or sell a stock. In some corners, it’s known as technical analysis. In others(mistakenly in my opinion), voodoo nonsense.

Looking for a Move Back to Resistance

Gary Kaltbaum — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 09:17:56 -0400

Strong S&P500 Earnings Plus Weak Prices Equals Opportunity

Chuck Carnevale — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 09:00:49 -0400

Extensive research, experience and analysis spanning more than 40 years has taught me that earnings determine market price in the long run. I have dubbed this principle with the acronym EDMP. However, there also exists a short-run evil twin sister EDMP. This principle states that emotions determine market price in the short run. Currently, the evil twin sister EDMP is in charge. In the longer run, I believe this spells opportunity based on the oldest of all investing adages "buy low sell high."

Sector Performance Since August Lows

Gary Gordon — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 08:36:54 -0400

The number “88″ means a lot of different things to different people around the world. For some, it expresses the notion that the universe is both infinitely large and infinitely small. Others see it as a message of eternal love. Meanwhile, Chinese culture recognizes “8″ as its luckiest number, with “88″ symbolizing even greater fortunes.

However, 8/8 is a rather dismal date for the investing public. Investors in U.S. stocks will remember it as the ugliest finish to a trading session in 2011. (At least so far.)

Morning Drip 09.14.11

Editorial Staff — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 08:26:47 -0400
good morning

dj futs: +62.15; sp futs: +8.63; naz futs: +15.47

hong kong: +0.08%
japan: -1.14%
china: +0.55%

uk: +1.65%
germany: +2.48%
france: +1.89%

euro: +0.41% to 1.3737
gold: -0.11% to 1828.0
oil: -0.73% to 89.55
10 year yields 2.012, up 22bps

dollar index -0.01% to 76.910

8:30a PPI: est. unch vs. prior +0.2%
8:30a core PPI: est. +0.2% vs. prior +0.4%
8:30a retail sales: est. +0.2% vs. prior +0.5%
8:30a retail sales (ex. auto): est. +0.3% vs. prior +0.5%

S&P 500 Relative to Europe is Raising Red Flags for Bulls

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 07:38:26 -0400

The S&P 500 has been regarded as a relative “safe haven” given:

Triple Index Check

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 08:43:30 -0400

What levels are we watching for set-ups/game-plans in the triple US Equity indexes – Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ?

Let’s get a quick check-up on these levels and current market structure as we start the week:

I’ll focus the majority of the description of structure on the S&P 500 as the picture is almost identical in both the Dow Jones and NASDAQ.

Charting the Breakdown

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 11:56:12 -0400

News of Greece’s debt and European contagion again dominated the headlines on Friday.

The Euro broke major confluence chart support and is currently in free-fall… but what is the current structure saying and what are the current levels to watch as a reference?

Let’s take a look, starting with the Weekly Frame:

Keepin' It Real (Yield)

Jim Picerno — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 11:48:05 -0400

Prepping for Lehman 2.0

John Nyaradi — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 10:59:27 -0400

Minute by minute, it’s becoming more clear that a meltdown in Europe is the most likely outcome, and investors around the world need to prepare for what I call Lehman 2.0 .

There is little question that a Greek default, which now seems quite likley and imminent, will be a Lehman-like event with the potential for spreading across Europe.

Your Trading Radar for the Week Ahead 09.12.11

Jeff Miller — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 10:26:37 -0400

I'm sure that readers of "A Dash" have watched some of the ceremonies commemorating the events of 9/11, and some have probably participated. It is a time to remember our losses and pay respects. We have all also read retrospective pieces about how things have changed in the last ten years.

Perhaps the only common theme is the well-deserved recognition of those who serve others by putting themselves in harm's way.

Stocks/Commodities May Get Hammered If Dollar Rallies

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 09:42:29 -0400

Morning Drip

Editorial Staff — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 08:17:17 -0400
good morning – futs a tad off overnight lows

dj futs: -189.13; sp futs: -20.97; naz futs: -36.26

hong kong: -4.21%
japan: -2.31%
china: -0.05%

uk: -2.67%
germany: -3.8%
france: -4.94%

euro: +0.54% to 1.3639
gold: -0.83% to 1844.10
oil: -1.46% to 85.97
10 year yields 1.902, down 9bps

dollar index -0.12% to 77.282

no G7 intervention, no Greek default, German bund yields a record 1.72%, Moody’s warns of a possible downgrade of French banks, Bucs have their lunch handed to them

Still Solid Gold (After All These Years)

Clif Droke — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 08:08:54 -0400

Market Range Still Intact... For Now

Bob Lang — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 07:44:01 -0400

Tell-Tale Bear Tracks

Adam Hamilton — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 07:36:05 -0400

Early August’s sharp stock-market plunge ignited an explosion of bearish theories. And with the headline stock indexes still grinding along near lows over the month since, fears of a new bear market continue to proliferate today. But interestingly, the fast selling velocity that spooked traders is not characteristic of young bear markets. Instead it is a bull-market-correction phenomenon.

"Emotional Intelligence" in Trading

Steve Miller — Sun, 11 Sep 2011 07:19:31 -0400

Risk is Good

Matthew Bradbard — Sat, 10 Sep 2011 01:00:53 -0400

Path of Least Resistance is Lower for the Euro

Kathy Lien — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 05:34:00 -0400

Green Faucet Market Update - 09.09.11

Editorial Staff — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 02:22:48 -0400

When Big Drops Come After Bigger Gains

Rob Hanna — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 11:58:21 -0400

When the market experiences a strong pullback as it did yesterday then there is often a tendency for it to bounce the next day. This tendency varies greatly though, and depends on a large number of factors. One factor to consider is how the market moved the day before. Let’s look at a couple of equity curves that will demonstrate my point. This first one shows results since 2003 of buying all 1% drops at the close and selling at the close the next day.

Individual Securities Give Clues To ETFs That Deserve Consideration

Gary Gordon — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 11:39:23 -0400
Forget the idea that the economy will contract in upcoming quarters… at least for a moment. And put aside the idea that housing prices have yet to bottom out. Instead, let’s focus entirely on the price movement of a premier benchmark in this year’s stock market correction.
Specifically, U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 fell from a May 2 intra-day peak of 1370 to an August 9 intra-day low of 1101, shedding a confidence-shaking -19.6%. That’s not quite enough damage to constitute a bear. Nevertheless, it is a 3-month period with very few fans beyond the short-selling crowd.

Macro Solutions, Practical And Otherwise

Jim Picerno — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 11:36:32 -0400

More on the Jobs Debate

Jeff Miller — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 11:26:41 -0400

I suspect that my take, as is often the case, will differ from that of both the financial punditry and the political commentators.

My grade for the proposals is an "A" and the speech gets an "A-". My grade for the pundits is a C-.

My perspective is simple. I want the US economy to improve. I want my unemployed friends to find work. I want businesses to succeed. I want investors to achieve their retirement goals -- something that will not happen if we stand still. My goals are shared by nearly every American citizen.

Fed Can’t "Twist" the Sell Signals Away

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 10:28:38 -0400

Eat Your Own Cooking

David Merkel — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 10:00:20 -0400

When I manage money for my clients, my own money is on the line along with them. That’s the way it should be. I try to give clients a clone of my portfolios whether on bonds or stocks. This aligns my interests with theirs, because I want to make money over the long run on my assets.

Can the G7 Get 'Er Done?

Kathy Lien — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 09:35:38 -0400

Stuck in a Box

John Nyaradi — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 08:58:19 -0400

Dr. Bernanke delivered a closely watched speech that the stock market obviously didn’t care for as it took a swan dive into the close. He didn’t offer any new plans, other than to say that the Fed “will do all it can” to help out but the market wanted details and didn’t get any.

However, major analysts, reporters and market players are counting on Fed action at their September meeting and the most widely expected action is “Operation Twist” wherein the Fed exchanges shorter dated maturities for longer ones in an attempt to force down long term interest rates.

Frontrunning: September 9

Tyler Durden — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 08:51:46 -0400

Fed’s Tool Box Looking Grim

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 08:12:23 -0400

Range Day

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 01:58:45 -0400
As BZB suggested from the get go, up and down volume are evenly matched at the mid-day for sloppy range day trade leading into the POTUS/ Fed speeches.

The Chronic Pain Of Jobless Claims

Jim Picerno — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 11:21:59 -0400

The risk of a new recession is higher, but it’s not obvious that it’s at the tipping point. A number of traditional indicators that have an encouraging history of dispensing early warning signs are still in the growth column, if only slightly. But there’s also a set of deteriorating numbers that counteract the positives, as today’s update on new jobless claims reminds. No wonder that some analysts say there's a 50/50 chance of a downturn.

5 Stock ETFs With Impressive Relative Strength

Gary Gordon — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 11:13:20 -0400

Historically, it has been relatively rare for the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to break “30.” And when it has hit 30 on the upside, the spike typically meant that panic selling was nearing completion.

However, the rules of the VIX game changed in 2008. Breaking 30 no longer signified capitulation. In fact, in a more volatile investing world, “30″ may only indicate the beginning of bearish market direction.

The Power Of Two Simple Investing Ideas

Jim Picerno — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 10:54:49 -0400

In theory, the recent increase in market volatility opens the door for superior results from active management. In practice, it’s still hard to beat relevant benchmarks. You wouldn’t know it from the promises from the usual suspects, but the numbers suggest another reality.

Understanding the Jobs Debate

Jeff Miller — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 10:39:42 -0400

Last week's terrible employment situation report has focused attention on jobs. It is a main topic for the GOP candidates as well as tomorrow's Presidential speech to a Joint Session of Congress.

Understanding this national policy debate requires a knowledge of the facts. Sadly, many of those engaged in making proposals do not understand the basics of labor economics and job creation. Let me illustrate.

The General Perception

There is a general sense of malaise that includes a number of ideas, including the following:

What are Options Good For?

Jared Woodard — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 10:34:21 -0400

Risking capital is like making a statement in a language. In a natural language like English or French, asserting some proposition puts you at risk of being right or wrong. If you say true things over and over, people will respect you more; if you constantly assert obvious falsehoods, no one will take you seriously. In the language of financial assets, expressing some view means risking your financial capital instead of your social capital: if your financial assertion is wrong, you will lose some money.

Europe Still a Target Rich Environment for Shorts

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 09:30:24 -0400

Bridgewater Associates is the world’s largest macro hedge fund firm, meaning they have a good handle on the problems in Europe. Some excerpts from a Bloomberg article on the firm’s current outlook:

Does Volume Matter?

Michael Kahn — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 09:25:19 -0400

We have been bombarded by differing opinions on volume lately. Certainly, falling market volume did not stop the 2010 portion of the rally just ended. Some say volume is no longer essential. Others say ETFs and off-exchange trading renders common stock volume on the exchanges useless.

German DAX: Three Ways

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 09:15:44 -0400

With the European financial situation dominating headlines, traders continue to monitor the strength of Germany’s economy as the strongest economy in the region.

There’s an interesting chart pattern situation developing on Germany’s DAX index (stock market), so let’s focus on the triple-timeframe picture which includes a critical support level on the higher frames and a nice positive divergence on the lower frame.

Let’s start with the Monthly Picture:

USD and EUR Sink on Trichet and Data

Kathy Lien — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 09:05:36 -0400

Is Confidence Returning

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 07:15:09 -0400

Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel?

Gary Kaltbaum — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 11:13:29 -0400

Gaps and reversals…reversals and gaps. Rumors about this and that! How does one play this market? Lightly! But after all the noise, I just continue to look for any changes. For someone who has been overall bearish for quite a while, I am always looking for light at the end of the tunnel. Here is some potential light.

GOLD may be putting in a classic double top. This simply is a pattern that occurs many times to stop a move dead in its tracks for the time being. Gold has been the place to buy when the market has been hit…so maybe just maybe.

Yesterday's Partial Gap Bodes Well

Rob Hanna — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 10:12:27 -0400

The market is gapping up large this morning so I feel a little silly discussing how yesterday's action suggests good things for the next few days. Still, I did not note anything bearish about yesterday so I thought I would show one of the studies that I found compelling that appeared in the Quantifinder as we approached the close.

CAD Sinks With Rate Hikes Off the Table

Kathy Lien — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 10:04:06 -0400

Whittling Down My Shopping List

David Merkel — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 09:38:55 -0400

I’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio. The first part of this is industry analysis.
My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic at the end of this article. Green industries are cold. Red industries are hot. If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the question, “Where are trends under-discounted?” Price momentum tends to persist, but look for areas where it might be even better in the near term.

Silver Stocks Lagging

Scott Wright — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 08:57:22 -0400

This last year for silver has been awesome! After a sideways grind in the $15 to $20 range for most of the first three quarters of 2010, silver’s September breakout unleashed a beast that has been nearly unstoppable. By the end of that breakout month silver blasted through its bull high from early 2008, and has more than doubled since!

Start of a Shortened Week

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 08:13:06 -0400

How To Trade Retracement Plays

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 12:31:59 -0400

In general, crude oil prices are closely following stock prices, including the recent rally into confluence resistance.

Let’s chart that key resistance level to watch on the daily chart in Crude Oil:

Let’s start with the current structure and then take a moment to learn a few charting lessons from similar set-ups in the last few months.

We're Here to Win Big, Not Lose Small

Derek Hernquist — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 12:07:43 -0400

Is the White House Thinking Tax Cuts?

Jim Picerno — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 11:56:26 -0400

Skidding Into September

John Nyaradi — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 11:51:53 -0400

Global stock markets took a big skid into September as shocks from the employment market and banking industry added to an already steady stream of weak economic reports.

At Wall Street Sector Selector, we had a nice week as our defensive posture generated gains in most positions. There is still hope for the bulls, as we’ll discuss in a moment, however, we remain positioned in inverse ETF, put option and cash positions, continuing to expect lower prices ahead.

On My Wall Street Radar:

I'm From the Government and I'm Here to Help

Jeff Miller — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 11:08:53 -0400

Last week was all about data. This week will be about government, in the US and around the world.

Get ready for an avalanche of speeches -- from assorted Fed members, the debate of the GOP candidates, and the President.

It will be a busy week for Europe's governments as well. Traders must try to decipher the twists and turns of assorted decisions about Greece and Italy, and a test of strength for Chancellor Merkel.

I'll suggest what this means for investors in the conclusion, but first let's take our regular look at last week's events.

Are There Any Safe-Havens Left?

Kathy Lien — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 10:40:44 -0400

Ignore This At Your Own Risk

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 09:57:37 -0400

With an apparent acceleration of the debt crisis in Europe and a prolonged budget fight set to continue in the United States, we have bear market drivers in place from a fundamental perspective. On Monday, two-year Greek notes traded at 50% of face value; the yield on 10-year Italian bonds rose another 27 basis points. Angela Merkel’s party lost weekend elections in Germany, which brings into question public support for more bailouts in Europe.

No Way Around It: This is Classic Bear Market Action

Gary Kaltbaum — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 09:38:12 -0400

In my past couple of missives, I told you markets were rallying right back into resistance. This is the “normal” action I told you about that occurs in bear markets. To review…when markets gets extended and stretched from the norm, eventually they move back towards the norm before resuming the major trend. In this case, the trend remains down. But that’s the trees. The trees was the anticipated bounce as well as the stalling at resistance. The forest is simple…this remains a very bearish market, not only here but across the globe. Let’s pick it apart.

So Now What?

Bob Lang — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 08:34:22 -0400

Lack of Employment

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 05:22:20 -0400

Charting Lessons: EEM

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 11:54:34 -0400

What’s going on with the popular Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and what are the key higher timeframe reference levels?

Let’s take a look, starting with the higher weekly structure which identifies the two main levels:

Cutting right the main point, major confluence support (Fibonacci and 200d SMA) resides at the $38.00 per share level – that’s also a confirmed price low for 2011.

6 Under-Valued Growth Stocks

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 11:36:07 -0400

We don't believe in investing in the stock market. Instead, we believe in investing in great businesses. Therefore, we tend to focus more on how the business is performing on an operating basis than we do on stock price volatility. In other words, we are most interested in whether or not the company is generating growth in earnings and cash flows and thereby increasing their intrinsic value. True Worth™ valuation is what we monitor and measure most closely.

NFP = Goose Egg

Kathy Lien — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 11:18:22 -0400

Some Lower-Beta Ideas for September

Gary Gordon — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 10:04:43 -0400

How many articles are going to emphasize how bad the month of August treated investors? The fact that U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 shed -5.7% speaks for itself. On the other hand, the reality that August had been down as much -13.3% eight trading days earlier is far more telling.

What Did You Expect?

Gary Kaltbaum — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 10:47:38 -0400

What did you expect? What did you expect when the President went on the tube to tell everyone that if we don’t raise more debt to pay our debts, we would be on the precipice? Did you expect businesses to hire more employees? What kind of confidence did that move instill in the job creators of this country? You tell me. I do not think this administration is thinking before speaking. I do not think this administration is thinking before doing. (scheduling a huge speech the night of a debate and without telling the other side of the aisle)

September Performance After Bad Augusts

Rob Hanna — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 10:33:13 -0400

Fall is Upon Us

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 08:59:04 -0400

ISM Shows Manufacturing Expansion (Barely)

Kathy Lien — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 10:58:14 -0400

Look at Extended Stocks for Trading Ideas

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 10:42:22 -0400

With the recent sharp downturn in the stock market, we have a new list of most “over-extended” and “under-extended” stocks from their 200 day Simple Moving Average.

Let’s take a look at the current scan results of most extended S&P 500 stocks, starting with most over-extended:

To recap briefly, the purpose of this scan is to identify potential trading opportunities depending on your individual style of trading.

Honesty Doesn't Sell

Jeff Miller — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 09:56:16 -0400

Most investors are paralyzed with fear.

They are not thinking about the right stock to buy. They are scammed by online gold sites (see this official FINRA warning.)   They are scared witless [TM OldProf euphemism] by sensational predictions of the end of the world.

The Most Important Issue: Asset Allocation

Here is a clue: There are very few investors for whom the right stock allocation is zero!

Traders Don't Care About Long-Term Issues, But You Should

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 08:55:22 -0400

Professional stock market traders manage risk very closely. In fact, stop loss levels tend to be set almost directly below entry points, meaning they are comfortable owning a position for a few minutes or a few days. If the trade does not work, they get out. Traders look at risk-reward ratios on much shorter time frames than investors. A good trading opportunity is not necessarily a good opportunity for investment.

Up Against Resistance

Gary Kaltbaum — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 07:07:23 -0400

I am just alerting you that markets are now rallying up into logical resistance areas. In my last couple of missives, I told you I thought we would see short term good news in the market as we had a follow through day and a good reaction to whatever Bernanke said. To my amazement, and maybe not, the move has covered lots of territory in a short period of time. But…please recall that I told you on two separate occasions that it would be normal to rally up into resistance as the markets were stretched away from their norm. Markets are now getting closer to their norm.

Waiting Game

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 05:46:20 -0400

Markets Rally As Recession Looms

Dock David Treece — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 02:36:24 -0400

Labor Market Stuck in Neutral

Jim Picerno — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 11:51:32 -0400

Private nonfarm employment growth slowed in August, according to ADP. “Today’s ADP National Employment Report suggests that the trend in employment moderated somewhat in August at a pace below what would be consistent with a stable unemployment rate.” That’s in keeping with the recent slippage in economic activity generally, and so it’s not terribly surprising. Today’s numbers suggest that we should moderate our expectations for this Friday’s employment report from the government.

How to Soften Volatility's Blow

Gary Gordon — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 11:47:57 -0400

The S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) has rocketed 8.0% in 7 trading sessions. Equally impressive, only one of those days logged a loss.

On the flip side, ”fear trade faves” are hanging tough. SPDR Gold (GLD) is essentially flat over the same 7 days. Similarly, treasury bonds via iShares 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) are down a mere 0.5%. (Champagne-cork poppers may want to hold off on the Mimosas.)

Economic Data Not Supporting Gloom and Doom Forecasts... For Now

Bill Luby — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 11:42:58 -0400

For over a year I have been examining how economic data in the United States has been faring relative to expectations and have been posting graphics that show the trends in five groups (manufacturing/general, housing/construction, employment, consumer and prices/inflation) in order to get a better sense of which pockets in the economy have been exceeding expectations and which have been lagging. [For the detailed graphics see links 2-8 below.]

On High Correlations

David Merkel — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 11:26:31 -0400

There have been a lot of articles written recently about a high average correlation level in the stock market. I want to take a stab at explaining what it means and implies.

Day Trading from Daily Charts

Jeff White — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 11:04:10 -0400

The daily charts are where nearly all my trades originate. Whether I’m looking for a single-day move or one that lasts several weeks, I always at least take the daily chart into consideration.

Day traders often forget the value that the daily chart can bring. The conclusion is that it’s only suitable for swing trading or position trading, but the truth is that the daily chart can offer some good signals for entry and exit as levels are cleared or reached. Even better, those same levels can often add to your confidence in a day trade and help you stay in it.

What the SPX/VIX Action Hinted at on Tuesday

Rob Hanna — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 10:46:13 -0400
I am seeing some signs that the market is likely to pull back in the next few days. On Tuesday the SPX closed just slightly higher while the VIX also rose. This triggered the study below, which I have showed before in the subscriber letter, but never here on the blog.

Tepid Recent Action In QE2 Winners Raises Questions About QE3

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 09:57:26 -0400

The Federal Reserve printed money in 2009 and bailed out the stock market. The Federal Reserve printed money in 2010 and bailed out the stock market. As the financial markets anticipate the next Fed statement due to be released on September 21, the markets are again teetering on the edge of a deflationary abyss.

On August 30, the Fed released the minutes from their last policy meeting. Before we take a look at the buying interest in top-performing QE2 ETFs, let’s review the key portions of the Fed minutes:

How to Position Yourself for the Kress Cycle Peak

Clif Droke — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 08:53:15 -0400

The 6-year cycle peak is near

In just a few weeks the Kress 6-year cycle will peak. What transpires in the financial market in the weeks and months following this important event will be partly determined by the reactive policies of the central bank. But in the longer-term scheme of things, even the Fed is powerless to stop the events that will increase in intensity beginning next year and into the year 2014.

Asset Appreciation

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 04:20:31 -0400

FOMC Minutes Suggest QE3 on the Way

Kathy Lien — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 04:00:31 -0400

Lazy Days

Michael Kahn — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 11:03:40 -0400
The stock market has a reputation of being boring this time of year. Volumes are indeed lower, most of the time, but that does not mean important points are reached.

Over the years, I've quoted Peter Eliades' observation that big reversals and inflection points happen this month. For me, the bear market of the beginning of the millennium started September 1, 2000, which was still August in my book since it was before Labor Day.

Put up your own chart. You will see quite a few turns over the years.

A Race to the Bottom

Kathy Lien — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 10:36:14 -0400

A Disturbing Trend in Honesty

Jeff Miller — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 09:06:37 -0400
Here at "A Dash" my main mission is finding the best sources and accepting a wide variety of viewpoints. I write a weekly update giving a perspective in various time frames. My recorded positions vary over time, but I always use the same indicators. If there is a change, it is a gradual process --carefully explained and reviewed. This does not happen often.
I try to set an example for an objective approach.

Is it Safe to Go Back In?

Gary Gordon — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 09:28:47 -0400

Hurry! Hurry! Place your bets on the chances of another recession — 25%, 33%, 50%, 66%, 100%!

Establishing A New Value Range

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 09:10:51 -0400

Sometimes, it’s very important to strip your chart of all indicators and just focus on the message from price, which comes through clearest without all the clutter.

There’s a very clear message from price itself in terms of range/value reference areas, so let’s listen to what price says and how we should treat these key levels.

First, the bigger picture Range Value Areas:

Stocks Surge BUT...

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 05:35:35 -0400

The U.S. is Not Japan... Sort Of

David Merkel — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 11:27:13 -0400

There has been a boatload of articles arguing how the US is going the way of Japan. I know, I have added to the crowd. Today’s piece is meant to nuance my views, because there are similarities and differences between the US and Japan (20 years ago).
Similarities

Technicals Look Ominous as Fed Talks Tools

John Nyaradi — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 11:25:22 -0400

The Federal Reserve appears to be out of bullets, technical indicators look ominous, economic reports are dismal and September is historically the worst month of the year for major stock indexes. Will markets panic?

On My Wall Street Radar

Personal Spending Rises Sharply In July

Jim Picerno — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 10:49:34 -0400

Slow Start for FX Markets

Kathy Lien — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 10:41:29 -0400

Charting the Bonds

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 10:28:15 -0400

You’re probably aware of the large price breakout in defensive bond ETFs TLT (20+ year) and IEF (7 – 10 year), but it’s always worth reviewing along with current price levels to watch for support or a reversal signal.

Let’s start with the daily chart of the popular TLT fund:

A Trading Low... For Now

Gary Kaltbaum — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 10:18:18 -0400

To continue with my thoughts on Friday:

For the near term:

It is good news that the NASDAQ showed great relative strength versus all the major indices. As I have told you for years, the NASDAQ is the risk index. It leads up and it leads down. Let’s just hope this continues.

Correction or New Bear Market?

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 09:20:51 -0400

With Ben Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech in the rear-view mirror, the markets will most likely turn their attention back toward Europe. In the short-run, it is doubtful market-calming news will emerge concerning debt and slowing growth in Europe. Add in a bear-market-like technical back drop (see video below) and we have a recipe for continued stress-inducing volatility in the stock, bond, commodity, and currency markets.

The Week Ahead: A Deluge of Data

Jeff Miller — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 08:55:29 -0400

Last week was all about headlines and the Fed's Jackson Hole speechmaking. This week will be quite different. There is a data deluge, culminating in Friday's employment situation report.

Market Manipulation

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 05:45:26 -0400

A Biotech with a Bright Future

Daniel Rosenblum — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 12:31:06 -0400

Fear Ceiling

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 12:24:47 -0400

Bernanke Comes Up Empty

Kathy Lien — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 11:23:17 -0400

Ben's Bullet Points

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 11:04:39 -0400

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20110826a.htm

Inflation Expectations

Jim Picerno — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 10:51:25 -0400

The market's inflation outlook is holding steady again, but for how long? The implied inflation forecast, based on the yield spread between the nominal and inflation-indexed 10-year Treasuries, was 2.1% yesterday. That's roughly where it's been for the past week. It's also down from 2.6% in early April. But we're still a long way from the 1.5% at this time last year. What might be the next catalyst that moves the current inflation forecast -- up or down? Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech later today is first on the list.

Fed: Independent of Unaccountable?

David Merkel — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 10:31:38 -0400

What to Expect from Jackson Hole

Kathy Lien — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 08:56:09 -0400

Evolving Commodity Market

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 07:43:43 -0400

Claims Going Nowhere

Jim Picerno — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 12:25:20 -0400

The Biggest Danger We Face

Chuck Carnevale — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 11:03:34 -0400

The Problem

Are China Small-Cap ETFs On The Cusp Of Something Big?

Gary Gordon — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 09:55:45 -0400

In this trading range environment, where the S&P 500 moves between 1100-1250, the volatility of domestic markets may be overshadowing activity in foreign markets. Then again, investors of international equities haven’t exactly been “winning” in 2011.

Apple, Event Risk, and Market Timing

Jeff Miller — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 10:22:19 -0400

Owning any stock involves risk. Sometimes it is the risk of specific events. Apple Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a good example.

The loss of Steve Jobs as CEO is obviously a negative for the stock. He has been a visionary leader, and that has been recognized by the market.

Precisely what does his loss mean, and how should investors react?

Background

Credit Market Sneezes... Pundits Declare Pneumonia

Jared Woodard — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 10:06:28 -0400

Credit default swaps on banks and sovereigns are wider, credit markets are less favorable than they were a year ago, there are still rumors swirling about the borrowing ability of European banks, etc. But now that I’m getting emails from smart friends who work in non-finance areas, worried that everything will soon seize up 2008-style, I thought it would be worthwhile to get some perspective on a few risk metrics.

TED Spread

What is Oversold in a Bull Market...

Michael Kahn — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 09:52:32 -0400

From a reader:

Precious Metals Action Bearish for Stocks

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 09:00:17 -0400

Did the Gold Bubble Burst?

Kathy Lien — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 08:15:46 -0400

FX: DID THE GOLD BUBBLE BURST?

Live & Die by the Sword

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 06:08:12 -0400

Another Three Push Multi-Divergence Example from Gold

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 11:37:54 -0400

What tends to happen when gold forms an intraday “Three Push” price pattern on multiple-swing negative divergences into an overhead “Round Number” price resistance level?

Let’s take a look at another excellent example of this important trading concept/set-up that triggered successfully at $1,800 on August 11th and just recently on August 22nd:

Implications for Breadth on Follow Through Days

Rob Hanna — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 11:05:13 -0400

Financial Media Misses the Mark

Jeff Miller — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 08:00:20 -0400

Intelligent people want to make sense of the world around them, no matter how confused it may seem. Everything must have an explanation. When the market rallies by more than 300 points after weeks of persistent selling, well....There must be a reason!

Reuters offers this explanation:

Pricing in Disaster

Jim Picerno — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 08:10:17 -0400

Anxiety levels are rising and Treasury yields are falling. The pairing isn't unrelated, but the depth of the fall in government yields is astounding nonetheless.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note’s yield is hovering just over the 2% mark, near all-time lows. As recently as early July, it was over 3%. There’s no mystery here. The crowd is anxious about the macro outlook and so the rush to safe harbors is on.

Treading Water Into Jackson Hole

Kathy Lien — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 10:00:38 -0400

Currencies and equities are trading heavier this morning with Dow futures and most high yielding pairs in negative territory. Moody's decision to downgrade Japanese debt, weak German economic data and speculation that the ECB is desperate enough to buy Italian bonds has challenged the sustainability of Tuesday's rally in equities. A better than expected U.S durable goods report failed to lift USD/JPY let alone risk but at least managed to limit the downside in the pair.

Gold: Is the Move for Real?

John Nyaradi — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 08:48:14 -0400

While global stock markets struggle with deteriorating economic news and sagging technical indicators, one asset class has been in a streaking uptrend and that is gold.

Variously viewed as “the barbarous relic” or the new world currency, gold is captivating investors’ attention as it has for thousands of years. And it’s easy to understand the interest as gold has gained more than $330/oz since July and is up more than 20% year to date.

You Don't Want to Hear This

Gary Gordon — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 08:59:56 -0400

Nearly every investor would like to believe that Tuesday’s 300-point Dow performance was meaningful. In fact, with the SPDR S&P Gold Trust (GLD) shedding more than 3% in the single session — with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) falling close to 15% on the day – the Dow’s surge may have been legitimate.

Still, you might not want to “bank” on it. Of the the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrials, 29 finished higher on Tuesday. The lone hold-out? Bank of America (BAC).

Preparing for Jackson Hole

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 07:41:02 -0400

Bear Signs

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 11:45:09 -0400

We can expect more volatility (up and down) over the next ten days or so. The Federal Reserve has their annual Jackson Hole conference this week. Ben Bernanke is due to deliver public remarks on Friday. In 2010, the Fed used Jackson Hole as a forum to signal a second round of money printing was on the way (known as QE2). Relative to what we may get on Friday, we tend to agree with the comments below from an August 23 Forbes article:

Options for the Fed

Kathy Lien — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 12:37:24 -0400

I was on BNN last night talking about the Fed’s options at Jackson. Click on the link to watch the video:

From the most flimsy to the most aggressive, here are 5 of the Fed’s options:

Groping for A Low

Gary Kaltbaum — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 11:16:18 -0400

Waiting for Your Pitch

Gary Gordon — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 10:44:00 -0400

Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs fame received rave reviews for her bullishness on stocks and the U.S. economy in the 90s. Yet, even in the final years of the decade, when signs of irrational exuberance were everywhere, Cohen stubbornly expressed upbeat forecasts. She viewed stocks as terrific buys in 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002… heck, throughout the entire dot-com blow-up.

Give Yourself a Break (For Newbies)

Michael Kahn — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 10:32:55 -0400
The debate continues on whether navigating the financial markets using charts is an art or a science. Those of the latter belief work with equations, trading systems and models. Those of the former belief, and I venture that most investors fall into this category, use basic charts, a trustworthy source of opinion, and their own experienced eyes.

Let's leave the rocket science to others. For most of us, simple charting tools work just fine whether you use them to complement the fundamentals or all by themselves.

Bailing out of Dollars Ahead of Jackson Hole

Kathy Lien — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 10:26:41 -0400

The last 2 weeks of August is normally a very quiet period in the foreign exchange market but based upon this morning's price action, volatility lovers are not giving up without a fight. The U.S. dollar weakened throughout the European trading session but recovered sharply against high yielding currencies when North American traders unwound earlier gains in Dow futures. The market is still teetering between risk appetite and risk aversion with the weakness of USD/JPY and USD/CHF reflecting a continued distaste for U.S. dollars.

Charting Precious Metals

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 09:35:36 -0400

While Gold received most of the headlines/attention in the last few weeks, what has been quietly happening to Silver and Platinum prices?

Let’s take a look at the parabolic move in Gold and see what the companion moves have been in related precious metals Silver and Platinum.

Weighing Your Risks

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 07:51:30 -0400

Tactical ETF Review

Jim Picerno — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 11:43:24 -0400

Key Trading Levels for the Week Ahead

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 11:12:56 -0400

On the weekly chart picture, a clear floor of support exists where we start the week of August 22nd.

Let’s take a quick weekly look at the Dow Jones and S&P 500 as we start the week with respect to this higher timeframe confluence/key support area.

There are three specific chart-points to watch on the Dow Jones weekly chart picture:

Stretch Marks

Gary Kaltbaum — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 11:05:01 -0400

The markets remain stretched and extended from the norm…and of course…to the downside. Just like when markets are stretched and extended to the upside, they eventually revert back to the norm, so will stretched and extended to the downside revert back to the norm. How? Typically, things will meet in the middle. This means the 50 day moving average will continue to decline while price bounces up to meet it. Occasionally, markets are so weak, price will just sit as the 50 day keeps coming down…but typically, the bet is on the former.

Your Trading Radar for the Week Ahead

Jeff Miller — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 12:04:23 -0400

Many have high hopes for this Friday's speech from Fed Chair Ben Bernanke. Everyone remembers the market reaction after last year's Jackson Hole speech. Some believe that we are about to see a replay. In CNBC's monthly survey of "market pros" there is now an expectation of QE 3. There are many other interesting findings on recession odds, the S&P downgrade, and Europe, but the QE 3 summary is as follows:

QE3 may be coming after all.

Out of My Element

Michael Kahn — Sun, 21 Aug 2011 11:46:33 -0400
On the way back from a long weekend with the family (Hershey Park - man, the chocolate so much better less than a mile from the factory) we looked for a place to have some dinner. We are used to rest stops on the Interstate where we can fill up the car and fill up the bellies, albeit the latter with gourmet sensibilities suspended. But on I-78 in both NJ and PA, forget it. We had to rely on exit signs showing us food and fuel with both brand and local names. Hmmm, Pizza Hut or Marge's restaurant?

(Dip) Buyer Beware

Chris Ciovacco — Sun, 21 Aug 2011 11:38:52 -0400

More Pain on the Way?

Bob Lang — Sun, 21 Aug 2011 11:20:29 -0400

Gold is Overbought

Adam Hamilton — Sun, 21 Aug 2011 11:03:27 -0400

Asking All the Wrong Questions

Jeff Miller — Sun, 21 Aug 2011 10:55:05 -0400

What questions are crucial for the individual investor?

My own nominations would emphasize long-term family needs, risk tolerance, and current asset allocation. These questions have a common theme -- people know the answers from their own experience and they can answer intelligently.

Kudlow's Question

A Few Oversold ETFs Worth Consideration

Gary Gordon — Sun, 21 Aug 2011 10:23:38 -0400

It’s one thing to claim that the stock market is pricing in Armageddon… that emotionality is trumping rationality. It’s another thing to dismiss investor fears as silly or absurd.

Will the Cavalry Ride Again?

John Nyaradi — Sun, 21 Aug 2011 10:12:24 -0400

As the Federal Reserve gathers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for its conclave this week, investors around the world are hoping (maybe praying) for Dr. Bernanke and his colleagues to, once again, ride to the rescue of global stock markets.

We’ll discuss possible outcomes, but whatever happens, it’s going to be exciting.

On My Wall Street Radar

This week’s volatility brought back memories of the not so good “good old days” of 2008 as markets struggled with dismal economic reports and the increasing likelihood of a double dip recession.

A Post-QE2 POMO Indicator Update

Rob Hanna — Sun, 21 Aug 2011 09:52:54 -0400

I haven’t shown an updated POMO chart in a while, and with QE2 now in the rearview mirror for the calculations I thought readers might find it interesting.

Another VIX Double-Top?

Bill Luby — Sun, 21 Aug 2011 09:45:19 -0400

Even "Safe" Positions Need Risk Management

Chris Ciovacco — Sun, 21 Aug 2011 09:03:32 -0400

Inexperienced investors in the commodity markets should keep in mind that while gold and silver look good now, silver dropped 59% in the last bear market and gold fell 32%. Both silver and gold held up better than stocks (and the dollar) early in the last bear market (as they are now), but eventually deflationary fears caught up with precious metals. Risk management is required for all positions, even “safe” positions like gold and silver. We own both gold and silver, but it is important that we understand the downside potential of any asset.

Trading the VIX Backwardation

Jared Woodard — Sun, 21 Aug 2011 08:50:27 -0400

Here were the VIX futures at 3PM ET on Friday the 19th.

click to enlarge

A few things stand out to me:

Charting Stocks and the 10 Year Yield

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 10:56:06 -0400

Since uniting in 1998, US Equities have displayed a strong positive relationship with the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield, and we can gather insights from that relationship.

Let’s start with the monthly frame and work down to the daily chart to assess the relationship and the current signals from this important Inter-market Pair:

Economists in Denial

Clif Droke — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 10:50:50 -0400

How I Utilize Quant Studies

Ray Barros — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 08:21:56 -0400

In his most recent newsletter, Jason Goepfert (www.sentimentrader.com) did a most interesting study on what happens to US stocks whenever the Philly Fed Index registers below -30.

Jason crunched the numbers and concluded that short term, the reading was bearish but 12-months out bullish.

Is It 2008 All Over Again?

Jeff Miller — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 08:13:30 -0400

While corporate earnings are the ultimate story, there are other important questions:

Is there systemic risk?
Does the current selling presage a 2008-style economic collapse?

I have encouraged the use of objective, quantitative indicators to answer these questions. In sharp contrast, many others make simple analogies and rely upon anecdotal evidence.

Panic Equals Opportunity

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 08:24:29 -0400

The Trouble with Averages

Derek Hernquist — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 10:15:26 -0400

“Better to be roughly right than precisely wrong” John Maynard Keynes

I use that quote a lot…it makes a ton of sense to me in the complex adaptive system we know as the market. Brian Shannon often uses the term “essence of trend”, another phrase I like to steal. I thought I’d share a quirk in my analysis yesterday that had me looking the wrong way as the morning rally unfolded.

The Market Does Not Think The Market is Cheap

Gary Kaltbaum — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 10:40:49 -0400

As I have been telling you, in spite of all the talk about markets being cheap, everything I have been seeing defines a bear market. Again, bear markets are made up of high volume drops, low volume bounces, hope that the bounces are the bottom, calls of the market being cheap…only to disappoint those calls soonafter.

Not Counting on Another Jackson Hole Miracle

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 10:32:17 -0400

How to Trade Europe on the Dark-Side

Gary Gordon — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 10:21:54 -0400

U.S. bond yields keep moving lower. Gold prices keep moving higher. Even the 3-month LIBOR rate is climbing, now up to 0.30% from 0.25%.

These aren’t signs that fear has abated. On the contrary! It seems that the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis is very much alive.

ETFs to Custom Tailor Your Bond Exposure

Michael Johnston — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 07:26:40 -0400

In recent years, ETFs have become increasing popular tools for accessing the fixed income corner of the market. The space initially grew much more slowly than equity ETFs, but investors have gradually become more comfortable with the combination of fixed income exposure and the exchange-traded structure. Innovation in the bond ETF space has been impressive in recent years; a number of first-to-market products have popped up that allow for precise access to various corners of the global bond universe.

Greece as a buy?

Michael Kahn — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 09:26:10 -0400

I am not advocating it but opportunity is like a phoenix from the ashes. The question is whether the ashes are fully cooked.

Again, there is no technical reason to say it has bottomed but at some point.....

Bucking Stagflation

Dock David Treece — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 08:24:05 -0400

Now is the time for a little game of good news, bad news. First, the bad news: The United States is likely heading for a recession. More bad news: This recession probably isn’t avoidable, and the Federal Reserve almost certainly can’t get us out of it.

It’s not that the Fed doesn’t have the tools to keep the US economy out of recession; quite the contrary. Instead, they lack the political willpower to employ those tools. That is to say, politicians in Washington lack the will to support the Fed’s use of its tools.

When Should You Hit the Eject Button?

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 08:21:17 -0400

With all the literature out there, it’s easy to find trade set-ups and entry strategies, but the real money is often made with proper exit logic/strategies.

What did classical thinker Richard Wyckoff say about closing a trading position?

In his book Studies in Tape Reading, Wyckoff identifies four specific reasons to close a trade:

“A Tape Reader must close a trade…

Have We Seen the Lows?

Gary Kaltbaum — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 11:40:04 -0400

I don’t usually get those questions on down days. Could that be it for the downside? I understand psychology. I understand about being swayed by movement. I have news for you. We are all swayed. The answer is…anything is possible. We live in not normal times. We live in a time of zero interest rates, the printing of money in order to send our currency lower and a specific goal of the Fed to have markets go higher. This is because the Fed’s actions have done nothing to help the job’s picture so they look to do something else. Anything can happen.

Prospering In Volatile Times

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 11:27:44 -0400

I wanted to share a link to a post from Mike Bellafiore of SMB Capital entitled quite ambitiously “You Need to Make More Money Now.”

Toward the end of Mike’s book One Good Trade, he details how markets have changed over the last decade in terms of volatility/narrative and how traders must adjust accordingly.

It’s one of the best descriptions I’ve read that provides a concise summary of how important it is to identify and adjust to the current market environment.

Keep That LIBOR Rate on the Radar

Gary Gordon — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 11:14:39 -0400

The Federal Reserve’s Fed Funds Rate is a target interest rate at which banks may lend money to each other overnight. For years, the U.S. central bank has targeted the rate at a paltry 0.00%-0.25%. And based on Bernanke’s comments one week ago, expect the bulls-eye to remain at 0.00%-0.25% for several more years.

Why Wal-Mart is Always a Lousy Investment

Michael Kahn — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 10:59:46 -0400
One of my favorite analyses is Wal-Mart vs. its suppliers. This is sort of like gold and gold stocks only Wal-Mart is usually a lousy investment.

Foreign Capital Go Home

Michael Pettis — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 10:09:37 -0400

The Ultimate "Fool's Gold"

John Nyaradi — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 09:57:09 -0400
It is now fourteen days after the dreaded August 2^nd, and the world has changed.
Congress and the President staved off a US default, Europe has not caved (yet), Wall Street saw the most hectic two weeks since 2008, and the United States lost its coveted “AAA” rating from Standard and Poor’s. Plus don’t forget dismal unemployment reports and an additional downgrade of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. All in all, the last two weeks have been a very interesting experiment in post-apocalyptic ideology.

Outlook for EUR and CHF

Editorial Staff — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 09:24:28 -0400

Kathy Lien was on CNBC yesterday evening sharing her thoughts about the EUR and CHR.

The Wall Street Parrot

Jeff Miller — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 08:59:28 -0400

There are many dangerous species of animals. For investors, the most dangerous is the omni-present Wall Street Parrot (parietis vicus psittacidae). This predator is especially dangerous because of his (or her) appearance -- attractive, well-dressed, and fluent in the language of Wall Street truthiness.

Here are some key characteristics:

Market Wrap

Jim Koford — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 04:55:49 -0400

Anti-Climatic Trading Session

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 04:52:59 -0400

Why is Everyone So Bullish?

Gary Kaltbaum — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 10:56:46 -0400

Large Gaps Down After 3 Up Days

Rob Hanna — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 10:43:56 -0400

This volatility continues this morning with a big gap down. The study below shows performance for the day following large gaps that occur after 3 consecutive up days.

Death Cross Looks a Little More Deadly

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 10:00:17 -0400

A “death cross” is when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. One just occurred on the S&P 500 Index.

The slang term tells you it is not considered to be a bullish signal. In a July 4, 2010 article Stocks May Surprise By Year End, we wrote:

How to Trade Intraday Reversal Signals

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 08:20:44 -0400

I wanted to follow-up from the post “Lessons from Gold’s Three-Push Divergence into $1,800” from last week with an additional trading example of how to piece together the chart puzzle into a successful low-risk, high probability trade on the very short-term structure.

Let’s take a look at the chart and study the lesson from the “Divergence Plus Trendline Break” Reversal Trade:

3 Reasons to Lighten Up

Gary Gordon — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 08:00:26 -0400

Since March of 2011, I have maintained more conservative portfolios for my clients than normal. There was no shortage of reasons. For instance, the uprisings throughout the Middle East meant higher oil prices. And the natural disaster in Japan meant disruptions to world trade.

From Safe Havens Into Stocks and Commodities

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 15 Aug 2011 08:46:01 -0400

Rally Back Toward 1,260 Possible Even If New Bear Has Kicked-Off

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 15 Aug 2011 10:11:27 -0400

We recently outlined some bearish concerns in Parallels To 2000 And 2008 Should Not Be Ignored. It is very important to understand that even if we have already entered a bear market:

Death Cross Now In Play

John Nyaradi — Mon, 15 Aug 2011 09:35:51 -0400

Without Bailing Out European Banks, These ETFs May Be Toxic

Gary Gordon — Mon, 15 Aug 2011 09:25:45 -0400

Beginning with subprime concerns in 2007, the United States had to throw all kinds of spaghetti at the Wall before noodles began to stick. For instance, the Federal Reserve first slashed interest rates. Later, in March of 2008, the Fed and J.P. Morgan orchestrated a buy-out of Bear Stearns. In September, the SEC banned the short-selling of financial companies.

Still no spaghetti.

La Cruz de la Muerte

Michael Kahn — Mon, 15 Aug 2011 09:14:09 -0400
I am trying to be like the rest of the media with catchy headlines but in Spanish or English, the stock market now has a black, or death cross in place in a growing number of sectors. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all crossed to the downside just Friday. The Dow is close.

Wednesday's column covered sector crosses. Let's step back for a second to explain what the heck I am talking about for those of you who are new to technical analysis jargon.

The Rise of Headline Risk

Jeff Miller — Mon, 15 Aug 2011 09:08:29 -0400

What's going on? This is supposed to be summer, with quiet low-volume trading and a lot of people on vacation. Instead we have volatility higher than at any time since 2008.

If you look only at earnings (fine) and economic data (still in the sluggish 1.5-2% growth range, you would expect little market movement. There are plenty of rumors about banks -- all denied quite vigorously as I noted in this article about panic.

Peeking Behind the Carnage

Bob Lang — Mon, 15 Aug 2011 07:59:48 -0400

Wake Up Call

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 04:59:53 -0400

Parallels To 2000 And 2008 Should Not Be Ignored

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 10:01:18 -0400

Six High-Profile Stocks Poised to Outperform: Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI) (Part 4 of 7)

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 08:33:59 -0400

Introduction

This article is Part 6 of a 7-part series that is looking at the incredible opportunity that a cyclical company can represent as earnings recover coming out of a recession. A primary objective of this series of articles is to illustrate that price drops of well-established companies are usually temporary even after earnings are cyclically weak.

In Part 6 we look at Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI).

Johnson Controls (JCI) Their Businesses

Gold's Recent "Three Push" Pattern

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 08:13:05 -0400

Intraday traders had a great example of the “Three Push” pattern complete with multi-swing negative divergences into an overhead “Round Number” resistance level in Gold.

Let’s take a look at how the classic pattern set-up and learn the trading lessons from this event:

Easing the Sting of 5% Swings

Gary Gordon — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 07:59:37 -0400

For four consecutive days, the Dow Jones Industrials rose or fell 400 points or more. In fact, that’s never happened before in the history of the U.S. market. Does it matter? (No, seriously. What can one glean from this historical factoid?)

The Matrix Market

David Grandey — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 07:29:52 -0400

With the media starting to use the word MACHINES when referring to who the volatile action, please welcome NEO from the movie “The Matrix”

In all seriousness though it’s quite the fitting picture if you ask us. Here’s a guy who has bullets of fear coming at him and he just doesn’t lose his cool. Talk about a role model to model for volatile times, huh?

Commodities are Back

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 07:30:46 -0400

VIX Suggests Investors Don’t Believe Rally Sustainable

Bill Luby — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 03:44:56 -0400

The Chicken Littles and Their Forecasts

Chuck Carnevale — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 10:23:28 -0400

Stagflation-Plus

David Merkel — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 10:05:31 -0400

I do not agree at all with modern Keynesians who lacked the restraint of Keynes. Deficits are supposed to be temporary not structural. Loose monetary policy is supposed to be temporary, not lingering.
Many policies can “work” when governments have the capacity to take on more debt without harm. We are past that point now. Additional debt builds up a larger problem, that will result in a greater crisis later.

Charting Current Volatility Against Past Breakdowns

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 09:33:03 -0400

We’ve all been trading in a high volatility market, but how does the current surge in volatility compare to the past few surges in volatility since the 2007 market peak?

Let’s take a look at what’s happening now and put it in the context of 2007 to present in the S&P 500:

Buy And Hold Loses...Again

Dock David Treece — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 08:58:32 -0400

For the second time in three years the case – and our mantra – has been proven that when it comes to investments, “it’s not what you own, it’s when you own it.”

First in 2008, and now three years later the markets are once again proving that the age-old strategy of buy-and-hold simply does not add up to a recipe for success for individual investors. The question is how much money people will lose before they finally learn their lesson.

Well, Now What?

Michael Kahn — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 08:28:18 -0400

Last week, my Barron's column was entitled "Will the Market Selloff Continue?" and I talked about an oversold market, ripe for a bounce but already in the grip of the bear. The original title before the editor got to it? "Stocks Peer into the Abyss." Usually, the editor's changes are much better than my suggestions. Not this time. That was nearly 1200 Dow points ago.

I am not going to tell you to buy 'em cheap here or sell 'em before you lose it all. If you want that sort of advice, well, let's be honest, you have to subscribe.

What Happened to Commodity-Based Inflation?

Jim Picerno — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 08:24:08 -0400

Funny how you don’t hear much these days about inflation worries based on rising commodities prices. Mysterious? Well, not really. Commodities prices are down recently--sharply. The cash price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) is under $80 a barrel, as I write—off from nearly $115 in late-May. A number of other key commodities have tumbled recently as well. Nothing like a big round of selling to change perceptions. That's the point--commodities prices bounce around a lot, and so we shoud be cautious when it comes to making big decisions based on the price du jour.

Boldly Rebuffing the Bear

Gary Gordon — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 08:07:14 -0400

Rampant inflation in India, as well as troublesome price increases in China, have caused respective monetary authorities to limit borrowing. Investors rarely celebrate higher interest rates or bank reserve restrictions.

Equally disturbing, ultra-slow growth in the developed world hinders emerging economy exporting. Moreover, the sovereign debt uncertainty in Europe, as well as in the United States, presents additional challenges for manufacturers across Asia.

The result? Bear markets for SPDR S&P China (GXC) and WisdomTree India Earnings (EPI).

VIX Backwardation Commentary

Bill Luby — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 08:05:09 -0400

The Cycle of Panic

Jeff Miller — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 07:45:27 -0400

It was another big and surprising day in the market. I am not surprised to see some selling, since I did not view the Fed message as some kind of ultimate answer, but the extent certainly raises questions.

From the perspective of the many professionals who focus on data, this is all a mystery. Earnings are solid. Outlooks are OK. Interest rates are excellent. Bond auctions are fine. Liquidity is fine. Economic growth is sluggish, but positive.

So what is going on? I bring you the news of the day.

Featured Rumors

Volatility Persists

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 04:15:45 -0400

Waning Momentum

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 04:43:39 -0400

Finally, after breaking lower on July 28, my breadth stats have at least stopped going down. While I totally underestimated the message of that evidence, it did its job by staying steadfastly negative since. It’s still negative, but the momentum of the drop has come to a halt…gotta start somewhere, right? Today’s evidence as we approach the final hour reads as follows:

High-Yielding ETFs Attract Buyers

Gary Gordon — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 09:49:05 -0400

Two weeks earlier, the U.S. stock market (S&P 500) sat near 1340. By the close of Monday’s bell, the market finished at 1119… a startling -16.5% breakdown.

Perhaps more shocking, however, was the indiscriminate selling of several long-time, non-volatile income producers. For example, in the same period, iShares S&P Preferred (PFF) tumbled -14.1%. Considering the fact that preferred shares are typically less volatile and less risky than common stock, the losses caught most investors by surprise.

Monetary Lessons Learned (And Ignored)

Jim Picerno — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 09:19:33 -0400

Has the Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus since 2008 been a failure? Many observers of the economic scene think so, and the evidence, they argue, is overwhelming. The U.S. economy, after all, remains plagued with sluggish growth, high unemployment and dim prospects for something more anytime soon. On its face, this looks like damning evidence. But this is a misreading of what monetary policy has accomplished, or more precisely: what it’s kept from happening.

Italian Bank Getting Hammered

Tyler Durden — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 09:13:39 -0400

FOMC Decision $0.02

Ray Barros — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 06:58:34 -0400

Sorry folks, behind the 8-ball. The FOMC comment came out yesterday. There was no news conference.

The FED promised to keep rates at low levels to at least mid-2013.
No QE 3 (at least for the moment). But its comment “that it expects inflation to be “at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate” seems to open the door for QE3 in future FOMC statements.

There were 3 dissenters of the statement regarding keeping low rates to mid-2013 (the FED is a 7-man committee). This raises interesting possibilities for the future.

The Fed Decision and the Market's Reaction

Jeff Miller — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 08:53:34 -0400

The morning papers will tell you that the Fed made a decision and the market rallied by 4%. Causation will be implied, even when not explicitly stated.

For most of the punditry the interpretation of these stories is seen through the prism of their opinions. Forget the data!

Debt Junkies

David Merkel — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 08:41:13 -0400

Our problems today stem from too much debt, both personal and governmental. When enough of the populace is overindebted, they become conservative in spending. When corporations see that, they become conservative as well, and cut back on production. The same is true with governments. As governments get more indebted, people begin to think they won’t spend as much in the future, which is a reasonable assumption.

Riding the Beast

John Nyaradi — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 08:26:36 -0400
Yesterday’s stock market ride felt like a ride on “The Beast,” one of the most famous roller coasters in the world, in King’s Island, Ohio.
Wild intraday swings ended up with a late day gain of 429 on the Dow Jones Industrials as investors tried to figure out how to respond to the Federal Reserve announcement and events around the globe.
While it was a wild ride with a seemingly positive finish, a glance under the hood reveals some troubling developments.
Wall Street Sector Selector remains defensively positioned and we continue to expect lower prices ahead.

A Little Fed Goes a LONG Way

Bob Lang — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 07:15:12 -0400

Vegas vs. Wall Street

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 06:47:55 -0400

Perhaps the Dawn of a New America

Bob Lang — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 12:41:15 -0400

Risk Management, Stocks, and the Debt Crisis

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 10:54:10 -0400

While most people understand the current global debt crisis is a serious matter, many investors may still be thinking along these lines:

Does the Fed Have Anything Useful to Say?

Jim Picerno — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 10:43:25 -0400

Using Past Lessons in This Turmoil

Derek Hernquist — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 10:28:12 -0400

I took the unusual step this weekend of reading every post on my own site, instead of the usual nourishment I get from others. The benefit of a digital archive is that I have an organized home for lessons I’ve learned; for years I operated with written notebooks that can be tough to later review.

Historical Extremes

Rob Hanna — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 10:18:34 -0400
This selloff is setting new extremes. Whether you look at volatility, price action, breadth, or volume, recent readings are off the charts. The table below is from last night’s subscriber letter. It highlights some of the extremes I noted in these areas on Monday.

Six High-Profile Stocks Poised to Outperform: Ingersol-Rand (NYSE:IR) (Part 5 of 7)

Chuck Carnevale — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 08:10:48 -0400

We have long held the investing philosophy that the best companies to invest in, are those that have the most consistent and highest earnings growth over time. This philosophy is oriented to the long-term buy and hold investor. In other words, we feel that companies with the best long-term track records are the most likely to produce consistent and reliable future returns. It only makes sense to us, that a consistent long-term record of operating excellence does not occur by chance or happenstance.

The Fed's Options

Kathy Lien — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 09:01:47 -0400

Kathy Lien was on CNBC Asia in the wee hours to talk about the Fed's Options. Yes, she's still on vacation, by the way....

Hello Bear Market

Ray Barros — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 07:59:14 -0400

A bear market has begun in the S&P that in my view will take it to at least

Acceptance below the March low at 1249 suggests that 1371 will be the high for 2011. This paints a very bearish picture to 2015 to 2020. I’ll deal with the forecast in a later blog. For the moment let’s focus on the near term.

More Choices for Emerging Markets ETFs

Michael Johnston — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 07:52:35 -0400

VIX Suggests Volatility Near Its Peak

Bill Luby — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 07:37:30 -0400

All Eyes on Uncle Ben

John Nyaradi — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 07:26:27 -0400

Yesterday’s stock market action returned the S&P 500 to 1119 which is where it was on September 14, 2010, roughly two weeks after Dr. Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech on August 27, 2010, in which he hinted at the launch of “QE2,” the Fed’s $600 Billion bond buying program. So, nearly a year and $600 Billion later, it appears, sadly, that precious little of the “wealth effect” generated by QE2 now remains.

Crash Day Commentary

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 09:18:31 -0400

After such a brutal market day, I have decided to share an excerpt from our nightly subscriber commentary with all ETF Prophet readers. Hang in there gang….

Commodities serving as Diversification

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 06:10:12 -0400

Key Long-Term Retracement Levels

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 04:21:54 -0400

It’s been a few months since we’ve had to concern ourselves with the large-scale Fibonacci Retracement Levels of the entire bear market phase, but today brings in the 50% retracement back to the forefront.

Will it hold? And if not, where is the lower level? Let’s review our long-term Fibonacci Grid:

When There is No Way Out

Bob Lang — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 01:07:10 -0400

Is the Deflation Battle Back On?

Jim Picerno — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 11:03:21 -0400

A Pundit's Paradise

Jeff Miller — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 11:53:27 -0400

What a week! Last week I expected a return to normalcy after the long debt ceiling debate. So much for that prediction.

The market seamlessly moved to a new set of worries, partly sparked by the poor ISM manufacturing report on Monday.

The result of this is a paradise for pundits. Everyone who has had a bearish market prediction any time in the last two years is claiming to have been right -- and for the right reason. This creates a difficult environment for investors, who have been invited to think the worst about everything.

On the S&P Downgrade

David Merkel — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 11:49:18 -0400

So S&P downgraded the US. Big deal. It should have happened long ago, and many other sovereigns deserve to be downgraded as well. Now if you want my summary views, positive and negative one the rating agencies, they can be found here:

My Downgrade $0.02

Michael Kahn — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 11:20:45 -0400

Let's start with the premise that the ratings agencies know what they are doing. Yes, I took my happy pills this morning.

A downgrade may not mean anything to the bond market itself. Here is something I posted in a discussion with a friend:

Panic Attack

John Nyaradi — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 11:14:54 -0400

Stock markets of the world tumbled this week as panic accelerated with each passing day.

Since global stock markets are now vastly oversold, a dead cat bounce would not be unexpected; however, we remain in the defensive mode and expect still lower prices ahead.

On My Wall Street Radar

The technical picture remains troubling.

USD: Short and Long Term Impact of Downgrade

Kathy Lien — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 11:02:26 -0400

Stocks Recovered in 1994, 1998, and 2004

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 10:53:12 -0400

Our July 27 article, How Will A Downgrade of U.S. Debt Impact Stock and Bond Prices?, is obviously more relevant now. Since the news of Standard and Poor’s (S&P) downgrade of U.S. debt on Friday night, we have been reviewing the market’s current risk-reward profile and preparing for what should be another volatile week for investors.

Probabilities After a Monday 2% Gap Down

Rob Hanna — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 09:28:45 -0400
I've shown before that 2%+ gaps down almost always bounce at some point in the next few days. The last time I reviewed this can be found here:

http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2011/03/2-gaps-down-other-disasters.html

This morning I added a few filters and looked at just what might be expected on the day of the gap. This first study shows what has happened when the 2% gap down occured after a 100-day low.

How The Smart Money Handles Debt Downgrade

David Grandey — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 09:01:51 -0400

These are the times where the smart money makes their money!

Heart Palpitations

Matthew Bradbard — Sat, 06 Aug 2011 12:02:07 -0400

Gold and Volatility

Clif Droke — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 03:33:22 -0400

Market at a Fine Line

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 03:17:00 -0400

We updated our similar markets study last night. The results are similar to the first pass. As mentioned in the July 18 video (see below), the slope of the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average remains a key differentiator between markets that should have been sold and markets that warranted a more balanced approach to risk management.

What Are We Fading?

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 10:51:32 -0400

Time to Buy Puts?

Jared Woodard — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 10:04:22 -0400

Some miscellaneous thoughts in this mess.

1. If your portfolio is too bullish or unhedged, by all means there’s no reason to stay “naked long,” but at the same time this is the worst sort of environment in which to be buying puts outright, because the high IV and steeper skew means put buyers will have seriously overpaid if we get even a modest bounce over the next week or two.

Six High-Profile Stocks Poised to Outperform: Caterpillar (Part 4 of 7)

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 09:38:39 -0400

Introducing Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is known and recognized worldwide for their construction equipment, farm machinery and heavy duty trucks. Like most industrial companies, their business can be very cyclical at times. However, the company is capable of generating strong profits when times are good. The following description is taken directly from their website:

Approaching the Tipping Point

Jim Picerno — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 09:22:57 -0400

Take no Prisoners

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 03:11:51 -0400

Searching for a Bottom

Bill Luby — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 08:48:43 -0400

Calling bottoms in the stock market is part art and part science, but with the VIX closing over 31 today (up 35.4% to a close of 31.66) and the S&P 500 index having fallen 12.5% peak to trough from its early May high, the markets are likely nearing a bottom. Given that the SPX closed right at 1200, just above the intraday low, it is unreasonable to expect that a bottom is already in the books, but with today’s plunge, the process of finding a bottom has already begun.

Blood in the Streets?

John Nyaradi — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 05:54:19 -0400

Global stock markets tanked yesterday and blood ran on Wall Street as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) suffered its worst one day point drop since 2008 during the darkest days of the financial crisis.

Major indexes are now down for the year and are now in official “correction” territory, down 10% or more.

However, at Wall Street Sector Selector, we had a nice day as our inverse ETF, put options and cash positions served us

Dipping a Toe Back in the Water

Jeff Miller — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 06:49:33 -0400

There are some investors who, for one reason or another, are out of the stock market. I hear this story all of the time, usually the result of family matters or an impulsive move to cash.

Whatever the reason, you now have a great opportunity. I see many stocks trading at prices (defined as low multiples of earnings) that I never thought would be seen again.

Key Levels to Watch into the Jobs Report

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 07:39:45 -0400

As we await the Friday Non-Farm Payroll “Jobs” Report, let’s take a quick check-up of the main reference levels to watch in the cross-market landscape at the moment.

Let’s draw our attention to the S&P 500 and then see how the intermarket environment rests currently:

Instead of spending a great deal of time on the nuances of the current market structure and sell-off/breakdown, let’s focus on two facts:

The Market Makes Its Statement

Gary Kaltbaum — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 07:36:05 -0400

A Look at This Morning's Gap Probabilities

Rob Hanna — Thu, 04 Aug 2011 10:25:46 -0400
The gap down this morning is coming after a recovery attempt yesterday. I ran a few tests to see how the day has played out in the past under similar circumstances. The market has been moving around quite a bit this morning so I am showing 2 sets of results below.

The 1st one looks at times the market gapped down at least 1%.

Obama’s Lost Term

Dock David Treece — Thu, 04 Aug 2011 08:53:01 -0400

On Bond Management

David Merkel — Thu, 04 Aug 2011 08:45:57 -0400

After the recent piece Waters Uncharted, I received this comment:
Why do you have a large portion of your fixed income portfolio allocated to foreign bonds?
Are you afraid of a large devaluation in the U.S. dollar?
It seems like American corporate balance sheets are very healthy (especially relative to sovereigns and personal balance sheets).

Momentum Cuts Both Ways

Bob Lang — Thu, 04 Aug 2011 08:35:46 -0400

5 ETFs For “Dip-Buyers” To Consider

Gary Gordon — Thu, 04 Aug 2011 08:10:18 -0400

Short-sellers and program traders are in charge… for now.

Going into Wednesday’s (8/3/11) session, PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) sat directly atop its 200-day moving average. After falling below the key trendline early, QQQ springboarded to finish with a 1% gain. Or consider the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY). It fell precisely -10% from its April 29 intra-day high to its August 3 intra-day low, then rocketed 2% off its intra-day bottom to close in the green.

Measuring My Words Carefully

Gary Kaltbaum — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 02:36:38 -0400

ADP - A Glimmer of Hope?

Jim Picerno — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 11:12:03 -0400

Today’s ADP Employment Report for July isn't really encouraging but it does tell us that there's still job growth. It's modest at best, but the fact that the labor market is still expanding at this point suggests that the economy will sidestep a new recession. There's no assurance that the labor market won't suffer in the months ahead, but the latest numbers don't look like recession figures.

Time for Defense

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 10:55:59 -0400

Every comment made below needs to be taken in the context of possible Fed action. The Fed will most certainly do something in response to the recent weakness in the markets and deterioration in the economic data. The Fed is due to release their next formal statement on Tuesday, August 9.

Six High-Profile Stocks Poised to Outperform: Crane, Co. (Part 3 of 7)

Chuck Carnevale — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 07:52:01 -0400

Crane Co. (CR) is an industrial company that manufactures and distributes products for the construction, aerospace, defense and miscellaneous other industries. Their primary products are industrial pumps, fluid control devices, vending machines, fiberglass panels, aircraft brake systems and valves. The following description is taken directly from their website:

Charting the Breach

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 07:06:36 -0400

Intermarket analysts look to the relationship of the Bond and Stock Markets for clues of future moves in these markets, paying close attention to leading signals when they occur.

This week gave us a firm breakdown in the Ten-Year Treasury Note Yield which resulted in a subsequent break-out in Bond/Note prices, such as in TLT and IEF (funds).

Let’s take a look at these moves and tie it all together with relation to the S&P 500.

First, the pure 10-Year Note Yield Chart ($TNX):

ETFs That Have Entered Bear Market Territory

Gary Gordon — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 06:56:43 -0400
On 8/2/11, the same day that President Obama signed a bipartisan bill to raise the debt ceiling, the stock market floor collapsed. Specifically, the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average — a technical trendline for stock buying support.
Indeed, the heralded benchmark of U.S. stocks hadn’t finished below its 200-day MA since last September. Equally disconcerting, the S&P 500 ended at its lowest ebb for the current year (1254.05).

Market Breakdown

John Nyaradi — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 06:51:31 -0400

Yesterday, the U.S. stock market and major equity indexes suffered a major breakdown as investors responded to unexpectedly poor economic reports.

We remain in the defensive mode, expecting lower prices ahead.

Fundamental news remains troubling, at best, as June consumer spending declined -0.2%, the first decline since 2009, and personal incomes were basically flat at +0.1%.

The Next Leg of the Housing Bear Market has Begun

Clif Droke — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 10:55:02 -0400

Turnaround Tuesday After 5+ Lower Closes

Rob Hanna — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 10:13:26 -0400
I’ve discussed before the propensity for Tuesday to serve as a day where short-term selloffs reverse. Historically it has outperformed every other day of the week in this regard. Last night I examined SPY performance following at least 5 straight down days going into Tuesday. Those results are below.

Poor Guidance Not Harming Tech

Gary Gordon — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 09:00:43 -0400

One of the “constant” declarations of the current earnings season? Of those reporting, roughly 3/4 of corporations exceeded profit-per-share estimates.

On the other hand, it’s not uncommon for 2/3 to 3/4 of companies to beat lowered expectations; key executives help to create “beatable” numbers. In addition, each of 8 major economic sectors typically have corporations that, historically speaking, raise the earnings-per-share guidance for their stocks.

Hanging by a Thread

John Nyaradi — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 08:44:24 -0400

Market Summary:

The stock market and economy are hanging by a thread as the deficit debate winds down, finally, to a conclusion.

However, the deficit ceiling debate is rapidly becoming a side show as economic reports continue to be unbelievably dismal.

At Wall Street Sector Selector, we remain in the defensive mode, expecting lower prices ahead.

Make It or Break It

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 07:36:19 -0400

Well, here we are at the well-known Make or Break chart support at Dow 12,000.

This is what I mean when I say refer to critical chart reference levels to make objective sense of all the good and bad – often confusing – economic/political headlines affecting the market at the moment.

It’s really as simple as “The market is holding critical support so that’s objectively bullish, or it’s firmly breaking strongly under critical support which is objectively bearish.”

Clear and Present Danger

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 08:09:06 -0400

ISM: A Sign of Things to Come?

Jim Picerno — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 01:47:15 -0400

Today’s ISM Manufacturing report—the first economic data point for July—reflects a sharp slowdown. Although the ISM index is still above 50, indicating growth, it fell to its lowest level in two years.

Suck 'Em In, Spit 'Em Out

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 01:34:45 -0400

ISM Adds Salt to the Wound

Kathy Lien — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 11:50:53 -0400

Medical Device Maker Offers Entry

Daniel Rosenblum — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 10:52:25 -0400

This medical device maker should receive an FDA approval later this year despite some recent concerns.

Six High-Profile Stocks Poised to Outperform: Cummins, Inc. (Part 2 of 7)

Chuck Carnevale — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 10:42:34 -0400

Cummins Inc. (CMI) is best known as a manufacturer of some of the world's best diesel engines. Founded in Columbus, Indiana in 1919; as the Cummins Engine Company they built their reputation on the economy, power, reliability and durability of their engines. The following description is taken directly from their website:

China: No Hard Landing, but No Solution

Michael Pettis — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 10:32:56 -0400

I have been arguing for a while that as long as the Chinese government retains its capacity to raise debt we are not going to see a sharp slowdown in economic growth – at least until 2013. Any indication that the economy is slowing too quickly will be met with a relaxation of credit controls, and the concomitant rise in investment will spur growth.

Don't Drink the Kool-Aid

John Nyaradi — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 09:22:48 -0400

“Be afraid, be very afraid,” the famous quote from the 1986 horror movie, “The Fly,” could be very applicable to our situation today as stock market and ETF investors.

Not only are we facing the uncertainties of the long playing soap opera on Capitol Hill regarding lifting the deficit ceiling and the attendant possibility of a U.S. credit downgrade, but now we are also looking at some very troubling economic reports that could easily be pointing to the likelihood of a double dip recession.

Honey, I Shrunk My Watchlist

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 08:38:33 -0400

I love discovering new music. It’s one of the reasons I embraced Pandora’s service when it came out…a music genome project, perfect. With a constant pruning of likes and dislikes, I was exposed to artists like Jack Johnson and Mumford & Sons and Arctic Monkeys that I now consider favorites. Without it, this now 40(ouch!) year old who spends every waking hour with his stocks or his kids would be stuck hearing the same Pearl Jam and Stevie Ray Vaughan classics.

S&P 500 Set to Bounce Off Critical Support

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 08:06:05 -0400

I’m one for keeping market structure as simple as possible, and there are two major confluence support levels we need to be watching very closely that have been important market reversal points in the past, and we currently sit atop both of them.

What are they and what do they mean for the current state of the news-driven market?

Let’s start first with the intermediate term rising weekly trendline:

Coffee Anyone? When To Buy GMCR and JVA

David Grandey — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 07:45:04 -0400

Green Faucet Market Update - 07.29.11

Editorial Staff — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 04:47:05 -0400

It's More About Not Losing

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 04:18:32 -0400

The Straw that Broke the USD's Back

Kathy Lien — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 09:23:34 -0400

One Possible Market Scenario For Meeting August 2 Deadline

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 09:16:43 -0400

The deadline for some type of debt-ceiling deal is now only five calendar days away (three trading days). The odds of no agreement of any kind coming together remain relatively remote. The political stakes for all players involved, including both parties and the President, are too high.

Two Homebuilder Stocks to Watch

Jeff White — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 06:24:34 -0400

Homebuilder stocks have suffered for some time now, with most of them unable to make any lasting progress on bounce attempts. Many of them have been trending lower, but there are a couple of standouts I’m keeping my eye on.

Bulls Waiting on a Deal?

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 05:58:13 -0400

“Price advertises the opportunity. Time regulates the opportunity. Volume measures the success or failure of that advertised opportunity.” James Dalton

Six High-Profile Stocks Poised to Outperform (Part 1 of 7)

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 05:52:37 -0400

Introduction

Congressional Fear Mongering

Bob Lang — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 05:46:27 -0400

Liquidity Liquidation

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 05:36:37 -0400

Could Central Banks Intervene?

Editorial Staff — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 11:58:15 -0400

Check out Kathy Lien last night on CNBC as she talks about the possiblity of Central Banks intervening to drive down the Yen should the U.S. default or get downgraded.

Knees and Toes

Michael Kahn — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 11:29:54 -0400

Head and shoulders, knees and toes, knees and toes..........
-- children's song

Is every pundit calling the current market a head-and-shoulders pattern? I recall the same in 2009 and the market took off to the sky. And even earlier this year, there was talk in the charting community of an inverse head-and-shoulders with the low (head) comprising of the Japan tsunami low. That one did not work either.

Use the Range to Your Advantage

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 11:26:16 -0400

With all the headlines/news out there, how does one make sense of the current stock market landscape?

I suggest thinking of the current market – at least from its chart perspective – in terms of the dominant Price Range boundaries in terms of Value Areas.

Let’s start with the simple “Value” Chart of the Current S&P 500:

The chart above is a nice update to my recent post from July 11th entitled:

Missing Deadline Not Likely

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 08:09:26 -0400

After the market closed on July 27, we reviewed the latest news from Washington looking for information that can help us over the next six calendar days. Our current interpretation is that a deal will get done in some shape, form, or fashion.

A Bloomberg story noted that the credit markets are not overly concerned about the political banter in our nation’s capital:

Gold’s Long-Term Value

Clif Droke — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 07:39:35 -0400

Reversal Coming

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 04:12:56 -0400

Could Central Banks Abandon the Dollar?

Kathy Lien — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 09:29:50 -0400

It is a mixed morning in the foreign exchange market with the U.S. dollar rebounding against the euro, British pound, Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc but weakening against the Japanese Yen, Australian and New Zealand dollars. The persistent strength of the AUD and NZD are tied directly to last night's stronger Australian economic reports and the general perception that aside from the Franc, the countries down under have the safest currencies. A stable political picture and a steady economy have driven the Australian and New Zealand dollars to fresh record highs.

How Will a Downgrade Affect Stock and Bond Prices?

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 08:59:06 -0400

Since the United States has carried a AAA debt rating since 1917, the term unprecedented has been properly applied to the possibility of a downgrade to AA. The uncertainty associated with a debt downgrade/short-term default was captured by the Wall Street Journal on July 25:

The Progression of a Trade

Jeff White — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 07:37:21 -0400

One of the things I’m asked about quite often is how I decide my timeframe for a good setup. Will it be a day trade or a swing trade?

That’s a great question, and it took me a long time to figure that out. One main component in the decision is the pattern quality. That’s going to encompass the risk associated with the trade, which means entries and exits are more defined by a cleaner, mature pattern vs. one which is simply building.

Debt Fiasco Hit Dividend ETFs

Gary Gordon — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 07:07:24 -0400

Roughly one hour before bond and stock markets closed on Monday, 7/25/11, congressional Democrats expressed that the House Republican debt plan was a “non-starter” in the Senate. Wince! Six hours later, President Obama spoke to the American people about a potential catastrophe that could see interest rates on credit cards, mortgages and car loans skyrocket. Yikes! And one hour before the markets finished on Tuesday, 7/26/11, the White House threatened the possibility of vetoing the Boehner 2-step approach. Geez!

Do Gas Prices Still Matter?

Jim Picerno — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 07:01:45 -0400

No Place to Hide

David Merkel — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 06:57:11 -0400

We can’t rely on US Treasuries? If so, what can you do to preserve purchasing power? I will ignore a variety of exotic strategies/derivatives and focus on things that can be executed by individuals and small institutions.

The first idea that comes to mind is gold, silver and commodities. Commodities don’t lie, they just sit there. But the prices don’t just sit there. They go up and down with demand and supply. I’m not an expert there, so I would say keep positions small, enough for diversification relative to volatility.

Don't Expect Help from the Fed

Kathy Lien — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 06:44:19 -0400

Internals a Mixed Mess

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 06:41:12 -0400

Absolutely nothing clear in the evidence. No bull or bear leanings. No divergences. So what?! We’ve been in a big ‘ol $SPX range for 6 months, a period filled with all kinds of foggy outcomes. I’m going to do exactly as I’ve done as long as I can remember…study the action and look for an edge. Today’s snapshot breaks down as follows:

Commodities on the Fence

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 27 Jul 2011 06:38:12 -0400

Monday night’s nationally-televised addresses by party leaders did little to clear the air in the debt-ceiling debate. Once some form of resolution is born (good, bad, or indifferent), the early reaction, especially in terms of market leadership, will be important. If commodities can regain some traction, it would be a bullish signal for the economy and markets.

The Dollar Should Guide (akaThe Dude Will Abide)

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 08:38:07 -0400

Fear and Risk ETFs Both at Highs

Gary Gordon — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 09:37:25 -0400

How confident should you be about Democrats and Republicans reaching an accord on raising the debt ceiling? Confident enough.

Don’t get me wrong. I always have my stop-limit orders protecting key ETF positions. It’s just that the bond market as well as the stock market both agree… a deal will get done.

Downgrade Jitters

David Merkel — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 09:32:57 -0400

Broker: “I’ve got a block of X Corp bonds offered cheap. You interested?”

High Yield Portfolio Manager: “X Corp bonds are going to be downgraded by (S&P/Moody’s/Fitch — pick one or many) soon. We think the bonds have further to fall, but we will be interested after the downgrade. It’s not a bad story, just a little misunderstood.”

Broker: “Gotcha. I understand. Call ya after the downgrade.”

HYPM: “Thanks.”

-==-=–==-=-=-=-=-=- Two weeks later, the downgrade happens -==–==-=-=–=-==-=-=-

Dollar and US Debt: Don't Rely on the Past

Kathy Lien — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 09:22:52 -0400

When Washington and Wall Street Collide

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 08:15:49 -0400

Traders of today can learn lessons from historical events where Politics and the Stock Market collided – with negative results.

Current Congressional gridlock is threatening another potential market crash via two separate but related events:

The US Debt Ceiling Negotiations ahead of August 2nd and the “Big Three” Credit Agencies warning that the US may receive a downgrade as a result of failed negotiations or a too small solution.

Risk Management & Uncertainty

Jim Picerno — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 08:05:04 -0400

Predicting is hard—especially about the future, runs the old joke. But there’s no escaping forecasting in finance and economics. Even a passive investor has an assumption—a forecast! If you own an S&P 500 index fund, you’re assuming that you’ll earn an equity risk premium. Where did you get that idea? There are a thousand possibilities for thinking positively, but the key point here is that you’re anticipating a premium will come your way simply by holding risky assets.

Is This Armageddon?

Gary Kaltbaum — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 07:54:55 -0400

This past weekend, I received no less than a couple of dozen emails asking me just about the same question. Should I sell everything in case no deal gets done? Frankly, I don’t blame them for asking. After watching the mainstream media trying to scare the crap out of everyone over the weekend with armageddon talk, one would have thought the DOW would open down 1000 points.

Real Prices Indicate Trouble Ahead

Steve Saville — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 07:43:28 -0400

Leaders Playing a Dangerous Game

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 07:20:24 -0400

Waiting Game

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 04:20:16 -0400

Waiting for the Rating Agency Shoe to Drop

Kathy Lien — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 09:53:59 -0400

End of the Road

John Nyaradi — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 08:07:24 -0400

We have “kicked the can down the road” for years and now have come to the end of that fabled piece of tarmac.

After months of dithering and political posturing, the United States government now finds itself with its back against the wall and the world watching to see if we will default on August 2nd.

Watching Events Unfold

Ray Barros — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 07:39:39 -0400

Normally I would produce a video for the week. But, I believe that, in the current environment in the US, the picture is better reflected by the written word.

I’ll start by providing a context. My view of technical analysis is:

1) History rhymes rather than repeats.
2) Technical Analysis is a visual reflection of the aggregate bias of the individual market participants.
3) Taking (1) and (2) together this means that:

The Week Ahead: It's Time, Don't You Think?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 07:33:08 -0400

Public policy in the US system of government is often the collective result of decisions made by several different institutions. When the institution is a house of Congress, the outcome is the cumulative result of hundreds of individual actions. The overall system has a high tolerance for extreme and partisan behavior -- as long as there are enough votes for reason and compromise.

My Trading Checklist

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 07:08:04 -0400

“How does what is happening today fit into our framework for making this decision?” Ray Dalio

Over the years, I’ve always enjoyed reading lists others have made of trading “rules”. Every now and then, I steal one of them for myself…here’s a list of principles I wrote at the turn of the year. But trading is fast, too fast to refer to a list and make sure we’re covering the necessary bases before we execute. Or is it?

Key Levels Across Markets

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 07:03:15 -0400

Given the large economic/news events playing out at the moment, it’s little surprise that the Cross-Market (Inter-market) landscape has taken on a pause or consolidation phase at the moment.

With the US Debt Ceiling and European Debt Situation coming to a resolution soon, the inter-market structure has currently balanced at value or “pause” areas that have formed clear range boundaries to watch should there be resolution and a breakout soon.

Let’s focus on those key range support and resistance areas which current comprise market structure.

Is Dover Corp. (DOV) a Cyclical, Growth or Dividend Growth Stock?

Chuck Carnevale — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 06:49:41 -0400

Dover Corp. (DOV) reported their earnings on Friday. The following excerpt from their press release summarizes their excellent quarter.

Why Waiting is Often the Best Option

Bob Lang — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 05:35:57 -0400

What We Need to See to Buy SODA

David Grandey — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 06:14:24 -0400

A Trendless Market

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 03:08:07 -0400

Can Commercial Lending Bounce Back?

Jim Picerno — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 12:23:46 -0400

The rebound in commercial and industrial (C&I) lending rolls on, but for how long? Recent history suggests a case for thinking positively. The value of C&I loans has risen in each of the last eight months through June. That’s the longest stretch of monthly increases since the recession formally ended in June 2009 and so it’s an encouraging sign that lending—a key indicator of future economic activity—has entered a period of sustained growth.

Bullish on Oil's Technicals

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 12:15:21 -0400

Evidence Suggests Correction May be Over

Ray Barros — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:27:46 -0400

It’s been the usual tough time for me in July and August.

My cycles were looking for a strong July and weak August. While that may still be on the cards, the current price action suggests that the correction is over.

What Jobless Claims is Telling Us

Jim Picerno — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 10:54:18 -0400

Six Attractively Valued Dividend Growth Stocks Reporting Earnings

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 10:45:17 -0400

Is He Economically Rational?

David Merkel — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 10:16:05 -0400

At AIG in the early ’90s on the life side, some of the actuaries had a phrase “economically rational.” When a new person would come into some position of power that we had never dealt with before, we would ask others who knew him better, “Is he economically rational?” (“He” applies to females as well as males.)

Now economically rational could mean two things:

Downgrade vs. Default

Kathy Lien — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 10:09:51 -0400

Respect a Breakout If One Occurs

Gary Kaltbaum — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 09:50:53 -0400
Overall, major indices remain in the same multi-month trading range I have been talking about but now, technically, the major averages have a chance to move out of range. Let me remind you that a breakout for major indices above old highs off of a long trading range is huge. A technician could not ask for more. Do not argue with it. I know the news stinks. I know unemployment is high. I know housing remains in a depression. I know Washington continues to destroy the future. I follow markets. They have been known to go against the least possible expectation.

Monitoring the Dollar to Manage Risk in Stocks

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 09:26:19 -0400

The direction of the U.S. dollar is very important relative to the performance of both stocks and commodities. The video below looks at the current short, intermediate, and longer-term outlook for the U.S. dollar.

How To Buy Stocks During Earnings Season

David Grandey — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 08:56:58 -0400

Thoughts on the US Credit Debacle

Michael Kahn — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 08:48:51 -0400
No, debacle is not too strong of a word. That Congress and the President let it get this close to the wire - again - is a disgrace. Yes, I believe there will be a deal but not because the bond market is not worried. After all, any deal or non-deal will not stop interest payments from being made. And Grandma should not worry either because, again, even without a deal there will be enough money to pay her SS check.

Beware Leverage

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 07:41:13 -0400

I Have a Trading Loss, Am I a Loser?

Bob Lang — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 01:34:39 -0400

The title is really descriptive of what traders think about themselves after posting a loss. After all, the future is uncertain – will you ever post another winner again? That is a rhetorical question of course, because we cannot predict the future. But if you plan well, do your due diligence, study, focus and make your bets accordingly the odds are good for you. But, how do you deal with a loss?

Social Insecurity

Dock David Treece — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 09:14:27 -0400

How to Play the Possible Flood

John Nyaradi — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 06:46:47 -0400

As governments and central banks around the world struggle to keep their overwhelming debt loads under control, they remind me of the old fable of the little Dutch boy who saves his country by sticking his finger in a dike to stop the dike from breaking.

Everywhere we look, we see leaks springing in the damn and one can only wonder how many fingers are available to keep the dike from breaking?

ETFs to Trade the Debt Ceiling Debate

Gary Gordon — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 06:35:22 -0400

In the 7/12/11 feature, Bond ETFs Predict The Debt Celing Will Be Raised, I demonstrated why there has been little reason to fret financial calamity. In essence, bond yields have neither surged nor “sold off” during the debt debate timeline. That fact alone has been supporting the notion that a deal would get done.

A Long US Holiday For The Bond Vigilantes

Jim Picerno — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 06:13:42 -0400

Just What the Bulls Needed

Jeff White — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 05:52:54 -0400

I noted yesterday that we were getting an upside resolution to the bull pennant pattern in the S&P 500, and it was no doubt a big day. The point and percentage gains across the board were impressive, yes, but were still outweighed by the technical move.

Breakouts need to see follow through. Sometimes they need it immediately, and other times it just needs to happen soon after.

Relief on the Way?

Kathy Lien — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 05:46:20 -0400
USD: SHORT TERM DEBT RELIEF?

Jack Be Nimble....

Derek Hernquist — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 05:40:33 -0400

Rules to Live By

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 05:33:12 -0400

What did Richard Wyckoff have to say about general trading rules?

As you develop as a trader, your rules should become automatic and routine, especially during the trading day.

Let’s take a look at another colorful quote from Richard Wyckoff as he discusses Trading Rules in Studies in Tape Reading:

“A friend to whom I have given some points in Tape Reading asked if I had my rules all down so fine that I knew just which to use at certain moments.

I answered him thus:

The Debt Crisis and the War Cycle

Clif Droke — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 05:24:46 -0400

A Pro-Growth Plan from the Gang of Six

Larry Kudlow — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 07:25:26 -0400

A Yawner

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 04:23:35 -0400

Policymakers Help Improve Market Leadership

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 12:00:12 -0400

News coming from the United States and Europe has once again changed the tone in a fast-pasted market. On our side of the pond, the Wall Street Journal reported:

President Barack Obama, in a last-ditch bid for a bipartisan “grand bargain” on the budget, threw his weight Tuesday behind a $3.7 trillion deficit-reduction plan unveiled by six Republican and Democratic senators.

Should Dividend Growth Investors Forgive General Electric?

Chuck Carnevale — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 09:20:46 -0400

Framing the Breakdown in BAC

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 08:27:43 -0400

With bad earnings putting Bank of America (BAC) in focus again, what is the message from the triple-timeframe structure of the charts in the stock?

Let’s take a look starting with the monthly frame and drilling down to the daily chart, noting key levels and lessons along the way.

With the exception of a “Last Gasp” bounce in late 2007 (the Stock Market peak), Bank of America shares peaked structurally in late 2006.

Upside Resolution

Jeff White — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 08:13:04 -0400
The 7-bar pullback off the July 7th high has been a pretty methodical one, despite some wide-ranging bars and overnight gaps. Nonetheless, the pace of the pullback has been well-defined by the upper descending trend line, while the lower descending trend line has marked support.
Monday’s test of the lower trend line resulted in a temporary breach, but the S&P 500 recovered enough to reclaim that level by the closing bell. Not only did that erase a chunk of losses from earlier in the day, but it gave a bit of an exhaustion appearance on the daily chart.

Internals Show Marked Improvement

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 07:58:29 -0400

Part of making this a regular afternoon exercise is to force me to share the evidence as it comes to me, and forget what was said yesterday. Things DO change that fast, which is why we do the work every day. For the past few days, I’ve been not-too-bullish. Quoting Keynes again, “When the facts change, I change my mind…what do you do?”

Working Hard to Avoid Default

Kathy Lien — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 07:47:49 -0400
USD: WORKING HARD TO AVERT DEFAULT

Corrections Abound

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 04:53:05 -0400

What To Look For In A Bearish Turn For Stocks

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 10:46:08 -0400

STUDY and SCREENING PROCESS

Does the current market look more like 2004 or 2007? The answer is important because stocks did well from August 2004 to October 2007, but they performed very poorly between October 2007 and March 2009. The fundamental picture remains quite uncertain with:

Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and QE3

Steve Saville — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 10:30:57 -0400

FX: Data and Earnings Goose Sentiment

Kathy Lien — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 09:27:58 -0400

The Current Account Dilemma

Michael Pettis — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 08:59:49 -0400
Creditors nations are worried. Their obligors seem determined to take steps, they claim, to undermine or erode the value of their obligations – at the expense, of course, of the creditors.

No Redeeming Data Points Yet

Derek Hernquist — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 08:50:07 -0400

Schizophrenic Sentiment Turns Positive

Tyler Durden — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 07:16:32 -0400
Following last week's blatant secondary bond market intervention ahead of Italy's two auctions which even Willem Buiter predicted would need central bank intervention (ECB, but any would work), we were waiting to see if the ECB would announce an increase in its bond purchasing activity via the SMP for the week the passed. It did not. Which leaves just one culprit to explain the dramatic moves ahead of bond auctions (which naturally set the mood and allowed the primary issuance to proceed smoothly and not bring down the euro).

China.

Bears Gaining Momentum

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 04:14:35 -0400

A Test of Patience

Jeff White — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 01:03:16 -0400

The British Open is my favorite major to watch. It requires so much of the players, from execution to mental toughness to using their imagination to get the ball in the hole. Plus, it happens in July when it’s 147 degrees here in Texas, and I like to disappear into the home theater where it’s cool and dark and watch the guys wearing sweaters as they fight the sideways rain squalls!

How Washington Can Resolve the Debt Limit and Promote Growth

Larry Kudlow — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 12:36:29 -0400
As uncertain and unruly and disheveled as the debt-ceiling debate may be, there are still good grounds to reach a deal. It could help the economy. It could keep the policy ball moving in the direction of smaller government. It could add a key business tax incentive for economic growth. And it could even stabilize the dollar.

Ceiling Showdown

John Nyaradi — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 10:53:43 -0400

Assessing Your Risk Right Now

Jeff Miller — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 09:35:43 -0400

Most investors do not know how to measure risk. Usually they do not even try.

Risk is difficult to define and more difficult to measure. Risk is often confused with volatility, which is easy to measure. Most investors do not understand that volatility measures variation in both directions. They care about the downside, but are delighted with upside volatility.

Surprises in Store for Earnings Season?

Bob Lang — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 09:27:25 -0400
With the second half in the rear view mirror there is so much to look forward to as we attack the rest of 2011. I certainly hope we have less chills and thrills in the back half of the year – maybe just a bit off settling down with a bit more stability. So as we get ready for that rollercoaster ride called earnings season we’ll have to buckle up tight and be ready for what the market has in store.

The Debt Ceiling and Your Money

David Merkel — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 09:24:28 -0400

The rating agencies are the whipping boys of the market. Like princes who had a whipping boy to take the hit for their transgressions, so the rating agencies take the hit that should go to the regulators, which delegated their credit-risk responsibility to the rating agencies. That works out well for all, in one sense: the rating agencies make money, and the regulators escape blame. What could be better?

Taking the Market's Pulse

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 08:34:50 -0400

What signals or clues are coming from the broader Sector Rotation Model as we see it in July 2011?

Let’s take a look, starting with the data Year to Date:

Taking the Market's Pulse

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 08:33:18 -0400

What signals or clues are coming from the broader Sector Rotation Model as we see it in July 2011?

Let’s take a look, starting with the data Year to Date:

Trading Both Sides of the Ledger

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 05:52:51 -0400

Don't Play Near the Cliff's Edge

David Merkel — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 11:48:01 -0400

As a nation or a corporation moves from being a safe credit [borrower] to being an unsafe credit, often the transition is more rapid than one would expect. Success has many fathers, and people are reluctant to change their views rapidly. But once the views change, it is very difficult to change them back.

Cancer Biotech with a Good Entry Point

Daniel Rosenblum — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 10:32:56 -0400

Data Shows Why FOMC Is Thinking QE

Kathy Lien — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 09:40:05 -0400

Bears Taking Control

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 08:18:42 -0400

After 72 hours of a wild but essentially flat $ES_F market, it looks to me like the bears are taking control. Not only did we fail to hold rallies on each of the past 3 days, we’ve lost just about any stock or sector that had a chance to grab a leadership role. That 1320-ish level on $SPX that has acted as a magnet appears to be turning into a repellent to lower lows.

Are BIDU and GOOG Earnings Correlated?

Jared Woodard — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 08:16:07 -0400

After the close on Thursday, even as traders were marveling at the 13% move after Google announced its earnings triumph, Baidu was also up substantially after hours (2.8%) on no apparent news. This got me wondering whether there was any steady relationship between the two – after all, Baidu is colloquially “the Google of China,” so it isn’t hard to imagine people trading the two stocks similarly.

Currency ETFs in the Era of Quantitative Easing

Gary Gordon — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 02:40:03 -0400

The minute the Fed floated “QE3″ on 7/13/11, I added more to my positions in funds like WisdomTree Asia Local Debt (ALD) and WisdomTree Emerging Market Local Debt (ELD). Both bond funds are unhedged for currency fluctuations, giving shareholders an opportunity to benefit from a reasonable yield AND gains against the greenback.

SPY Breaks Key Fib Line

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 02:35:57 -0400

The S&P500 has broken its 50% retrace Fibonacci level of roughly SPY $131 after a down trend day off of an R1 reject. I know that sounds like a technical mish mash. Bottom line, internals are weak and weakening, and the VIX is higher by over 8%. I’d put next support at the rising 21-DMA near SPY $130.50, then at the next Fib level just under $129. There is probably a buy for a trade somewhere near or within that range — never investment advice — but for now price action is in a slide.

Stock Movement in the Broad Market

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 09:04:14 -0400

This week’s lesson from Richard Wyckoff serves as a reminder of the importance of doing analysis (charting) on the broader stock market indexes instead of relying exclusively on the price chart of an individual stock you are considering trading.

Why? And how does that affect us today?

Let’s hear what Wyckoff has to say on the issue (from Studies in Tape Reading):

The Cost of Illiquidity

David Merkel — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 08:54:24 -0400

Liquidity is underrated. What’s that, you say? You are earning nothing on your slack cash balances?

Well, welcome to the club. I am earning nothing there as well. To earn money on short duration assets in this environment means taking risks, like Pimco does with its ETF with the ticker MINT.

Now, many will offer yield in an environment like this, but at a cost — a long surrender charge. The long surrender charge hides the transfer of future yield to the present.

Potential Longs Shrinking by the Day

Derek Hernquist — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 08:48:13 -0400

A Look Under the Hood

Gary Kaltbaum — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 08:42:15 -0400

Greetings from Venice, Italy. Wow...quite the amazing place. In the past 2 weeks, my family and I have traveled to Barcelona, Naples, Rome, Florence and the Amalfi Coast. Having a blast. You must...you must...you must visit these great cities. Finishing the trip off in London before coming back home.

A Smooth Trip to Rock Bottom

Kathy Lien — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 08:23:34 -0400

Dollar down should = Commodities Up

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 04:27:47 -0400

Dollar Tanks as Bernanke Admits Defeat and Talks More QE

Kathy Lien — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 11:14:51 -0400

This morning, Bernanke took the stand on Capitol Hill and shared his views on the economy and monetary policy. This semi-annual event is one of the most important speeches given by Bernanke each year not only because of the topic, but primarily because he has to field questions from Senators that are direct and difficult to avoid.

Obstacle or Opportunity?

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 08:31:31 -0400

This is why we do the work EVERY DAY; things can change quickly, for reasons we may have never suspected. From a rip-snorting bull swing, we saw a hard selloff into from Friday through Monday morning(actually Monday overnight). Does this put the bigger rally in jeopardy? A look under the hood tells me that, while this swing is deep enough to hurt some late longs, it doesn’t appear to be doing much damage to the broader leadership. The evidence through Tuesday’s lunch shows me the following:

On Eating What We Kill

Jared Woodard — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 08:21:56 -0400

The video embedded below is making the rounds these days, to nearly universal reactions of vicarious embarrassment among people with souls. This is one of those cultural signifiers that splits its audience neatly in two: if you don’t find anything objectionable or cringe-inducing about this, chances are an explanation why everyone else does may not be of any help. Still, I tried to address exactly this subject last year in an editorial for Expiring Monthly.

Bond Market Unphased by Debt Ceiling

Gary Gordon — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 08:00:44 -0400

In the Los Angeles area, decision-makers are closing a key stretch of the 405 freeway for an entire weekend. Television hosts are calling it, “Carmageddon,” as anyone foolish enough to get in a car July 16 or July 17 may need to develop an appreciation of perpetual gridlock.

More QE? Is Anyone Really Surprised?

Kathy Lien — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 07:53:39 -0400

How the Individual Investor Can Trade Like a Pro

Jeff Miller — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 07:41:39 -0400

It has been well documented that individual investors trail the market averages when it comes to investment performance. The "buy and hold" concept has little respect these days, but most individual investors do even worse.

There are many reasons for this, but bad market timing heads the list. As many regular readers know, I have been working on a book aimed at helping individual investors. Part of my approach is explaining how professionals think about problems. Here is one example.

Looking For Plays Into a Dollar Retracement

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 08:37:28 -0400

Moody's Harshes the Bulls' Mellow

Jim Koford — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 04:54:23 -0400

Downturn in Money Base Signaling Further Declines?

Ray Barros — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 11:09:14 -0400

We live in interesting times. The market seems to coming to grips with the reality that the FED may not be able to sustain the stock market.

Taking It to the Bank(s)

Jeff White — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 10:47:50 -0400

Banks stink. Since February they have stunk. (Stank? Stunken? I’ll figure that out later.)

What’s interesting though, is the overall health of the S&P 500 without the participation of the banks. Generally the banks lead the market, yet they’ve been sliding for months and this market has stayed afloat rather well.

So are the banks no longer important, or is this a signal waiting to be recognized?

The Final Frontier Of Investing

Jim Picerno — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 10:07:55 -0400

5 Reasons Why the Euro Bounced Intraday

Kathy Lien — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 09:56:25 -0400

Alcoa Highlights Troubles in the Materials Sector

Gary Gordon — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 09:52:08 -0400

Get used to the term, “uneven recovery.” You’re going to hear it out of the mouths of nearly every CEO this earnings season.

For instance, profits at Alcoa (AA) doubled from the year-ago period. In the year-earlier quarter, revenue surged a whopping 27%. Yet CEO Klaus Kleinfeld didn’t hold back from stating, “Although the economic recovery is uneven, the overall outlook for Alcoa and for aluminum remains positive.”

Key Reference Points Amid the Current Turmoil

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 08:27:56 -0400

We’ve all been hearing conflicting analysis as to whether the market will “certainly” be going up or down in the near future, but the reality is that the market is caught in a “year to date” tug-of-war between buyers and sellers which has given us clear reference areas to monitor.

Let’s cut through all the smoke and focus on the clear reference areas – with regard to current “Value” – that define the current “Range” Stock Market Structure.

First, let’s look at the current chart:

Flight to Safety

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 05:37:47 -0400

Coffee With Extra Froth, Please

Jeff White — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 11:08:32 -0400

Truth be told, a Slurpee is the beverage that’s actually on my mind (happy birthday 7-Eleven), but if you’re looking at the charts of anything drinkable right now, it’s all about coffee.

Granted, it doesn’t quite have the same ring to it as the 1999 Bubble or the Crash of 1929 (or ‘87), but the Great Coffee Rally of 2011 is on.

Trading Edge After Poor Jobs Data

Rob Hanna — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 10:58:54 -0400
The gap down on Friday occurred in reaction to the release of the employment report. The employment report is typically released on the first Friday of the month, though in some cases such as this month it occurs on a different day. This weekend I spent a good amount of time going through the BLS website and programming in all the employment days from 1993-present.

Why Italy Is A Bigger Deal Than Greece

Kathy Lien — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 10:29:48 -0400

The Incredible Consolidating US Dollar Index

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 10:12:45 -0400

If you’ve been following the US Dollar Index over the last few weeks, you’ve probably noticed a clean triangle-style consolidation phase setting up.

Let’s take a look at the recent pause, note the dominant boundaries, and assess the higher timeframe structure in the context of the consolidation.

First, the US Dollar Index – Daily:

All Eyes on Earnings

Jeff Miller — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 10:02:29 -0400

If you want to understand stock prices, eventually it all comes down to earnings.

In low-volume, holiday-shortened trading weeks, there can be plenty of volatility. Every story is amplified by breathless coverage from financial media. Traders try to outguess the macro economic and political stories. Investors need to take a longer view.

As we get greater insight into corporate earnings, we can all sharpen our market forecasts. Meanwhile, here is an important consideration:

Bears Looking to Halt the One-Way Train

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 09:27:47 -0400

Friday was an interesting day in which almost every trader(other than shorts stopped out on Thursday) was relieved to see a shakeup in the recent one way train.

My breadth stats changed a little, but not a lot…take a look:

Stretched is an Understatement

Jeff White — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 09:04:57 -0400

Bull Market Or Blow-Off Top?

John Nyaradi — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 08:58:40 -0400

Bull Market or Blow Off Top for Stocks and ETFs?

Recent stock market action has been remarkable, to say the least, confounding bulls and bears alike. The former say it’s a new leg higher while the latter say the end of the world is nigh.

Can the stock market and ETFs go higher or is this a blow off top like so many others that have preceded significant declines?

Our view is that both the fundamental and technical picture point to significant downside risk for investors ahead.

Green Faucet Market Update 07.08.11

Editorial Staff — Sat, 09 Jul 2011 02:40:37 -0400

NFP Moves Markets

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 06:05:43 -0400

Head-and-Shoulders Update S&P 500

Jim Koford — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 02:57:48 -0400

The S&P and QE

Ray Barros — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 10:21:11 -0400

Earlier in the year, my overnight trades went into ‘ebb state’. Normally reliable change in trend patterns continually failed. It was not until I realized that QE II had fostered a belief that the FED would and could prevent a sustained stock market sell-off that my trading results recovered from my slump.

El Toro Takes a Blow

Jim Picerno — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 10:18:43 -0400

Keep These Resource-Rich Country ETFs on Your Radar

Gary Gordon — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 09:29:34 -0400

With a variety of benchmark ETFs hitting multi-year highs on 7/7/11 – Powershares Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 (IWM), iShares DJ Transports (IYT) — investors have placed the May-June swoon in their rear view. What’s more, economically sensitive sectors like tech and consumer discretionary are leading the charge. In fact, some analysts believe that the momentum in cyclicals is a clear sign that the U.S. economy will accelerate in the 2nd half of the year.

Triple Index Check

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 09:00:26 -0400

I’m assuming most traders were surprised at the recent power-rally in the US Equity Markets recently.

However, taken into the larger context or perspective, this rally formed off major “Make or Break” Confluence Support as best seen on the Weekly Chart.

What started as a simple “retracement” buy-in has ignited a powerful “Positive Feedback Loop” that morphed into a powerful Short-Squeeze.

Here – let’s take a moment to see the three major US Equity Indexes on their Weekly Frame:

Abysmal Jobs Report

Tyler Durden — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 08:56:39 -0400

Quant Studies This Visual Trader Can't Live Without

Ray Barros — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 08:53:47 -0400

As a visual, discretionary trader, quant studies are not my forte. But that doesn’t mean I can’t outsource the expertise. I have found Rob Hanna’s Quantifiable Edges to be by far the best (at least so far as I am concerned), and Green Faucet readers find is extremely useful as well. His blog is well worth reading. (My link will take you there).

Catching the Tailwind

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 07:44:58 -0400

I’m going to try and make this a regular feature, putting out a short summary in the afternoon after I do my “weight of the evidence” look. There are so many better places to get strong info on levels and charts; I think the best thing I can share is my take on market breadth. I’m sure I’ll benefit more than anyone… looking at the evidence this way keeps me objective but sharing it keeps me more accountable to said objectivity.

Out of Treasuries into Commods/Stocks

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 04:20:11 -0400

Five Undervalued Blue Chips with Above-average and Growing Yield

Chuck Carnevale — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 02:26:13 -0400

FX: ADP Numbers Boost Expectations Ahead of Friday's Jobs Numbers

Kathy Lien — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 10:58:08 -0400

It is a busy day in the foreign exchange market with the U.S. dollar receiving a boost from ECB President Trichet's cautious comments on growth, a strong ADP employment report and the decline in jobless claims. The focus is on Europe this morning and we will share our views on this but we start with the U.S. labor market because once investors have absorbed all of Trichet's comments, the focus will quickly shift to Fridays non-farm payrolls report.

Where’d All the Inflation Go?

Dock David Treece — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 08:34:01 -0400

In articles and media appearances during the past several weeks, we’ve hinted that there are fundamental problems with the economy and the market. While we have often traced these back to poor policy, they are important to consider in and of themselves.

FX: Kathy Lien on BNN

Editorial Staff — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 08:24:48 -0400

Check out Kathy Lien as she discusses China, the euro and the Canadian Dollar on BNN.

Absorption and Distribution

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 08:18:24 -0400

This week’s “Wednesdays with Wyckoff” lesson gives us another colorful description of an important trading principle – that of supply and demand.

The lesson this week comes from Richard Wyckoff’s Studies in Tape Reading and explains how we can visualize supply and demand – absorption and distribution – in the context of a short-term move.

Let’s start with the text and then move to a present day example:

Positioning Yourself Ahead of the Debt Ceiling Decision

Jeff Miller — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 08:14:06 -0400

Forecasting big events is a special problem. It is not enough to look at the average outcome. In bi-polar cases either result could have a major market effect.

Such is the case with the debt ceiling controversy. It will either be increased -- or not. The bond market does not reflect the possibility of a default, but the stock market probably does.

Score Another One for the Soft-Patchers

Jim Picerno — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 08:04:49 -0400

Head-and-Shoulders Watch for the FXB

Jim Koford — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 07:54:20 -0400

This morning, the Bank of England kept rates steady while the European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points to 1.5% from 1.25%. While none of this is unxpected, it will be interesting to see if this morning's news will have lasting impact on a multi-month head-and-shoulders pattern that's been developing in the FXB.

If Stocks falter will Commodities follow?

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 06:52:03 -0400

The S&P 500 Ends Q2, 2011 Fairly Valued, Year-end Target 1467

Chuck Carnevale — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 12:33:19 -0400

FX: EUR Smackdown

Kathy Lien — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 10:34:09 -0400

Head in the Cloud

Michael Johnston — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 10:29:50 -0400

Gold and USD Higher as European Debt Concerns Percolate

Jim Koford — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 10:17:45 -0400

Use GMI to Spot Opportunities

Jim Picerno — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 07:33:10 -0400

These ETFs Help You Navigate A Choppy Market

Gary Gordon — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 07:01:05 -0400

According to the folks at Fidelity Investments, the average frequency of a 10% market correction is once per year. However, we have not seen a pullback of this magnitude over the last 12 months (7/6/10-7/5/11), and we have yet to see it occur in 2011.

In March, the Middle East uprisings coupled with Japan’s devastating earthquake certainly had the potential to trigger a traditional stock market correction. Still, it didn’t happen. In fact, U.S. equities hit multi-year highs by the last day of April.

Low Volume Still Plagues Upside

Michael Kahn — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 09:06:24 -0400

Extremely Low Implied Volatility Implies Imminent Pullback

Rob Hanna — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 10:49:13 -0400

Tricky Trading

Jeff White — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 10:32:21 -0400

I’ll begin this post with a plain and simple statement that is always true, including now: the market is tricky. It is never easy, and anyone who tells you it is easy is either lying or an ignoramus.

With that said, if you’ve struggled of late, you have company. Traders of many timeframes have found these past several weeks to be quite challenging. During the past 6 weeks, here are a few phases we’ve witnessed:

Trading Watchlist for the Week Ahead

Jim Koford — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 09:30:41 -0400

FX: EURUSD Extends the Low in Early NY Trading

Greg Michalowski — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 08:36:26 -0400

FX: Key Trading Yardsticks for the Month Ahead

Kathy Lien — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 08:17:19 -0400

The dog days of summer are here but as we saw last year, July is not always a quiet month in the foreign exchange market. In July of 2010, the EUR/USD rose more than 900 pips but then again, 2010 was an unusually volatile year for the euro. It is difficult to say whether this volatility will be repeated in 2011 but there are certainly enough event risks to cause an increase in volatility if things go the wrong way.

Your Trading Radar for the Week Ahead

Jeff Miller — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 07:50:56 -0400

Kick Start Your HOG

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 07:42:23 -0400

A reader recently asked me if we had a “Kick-off” Signal in Harley Davidson (HOG) and indeed we did – with powerful follow-through as anticipated.

The entire event gives us a great lesson in the Kick-off Reversal Signal, with the special emphasis on two-timeframe confluence support (on a retracement) where the Kick-off Reversal Signal formed on the intraday frame.

Let’s take it step-by-step and learn from this excellent reference.

First, let’s build down from the higher frames – The Weekly Structure:

Green Faucet Market Update

Editorial Staff — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 10:39:40 -0400

Whadda Bounce! Now What?

Jim Koford — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 02:08:43 -0400

Digging Down: ISM Not as Strong as It Appears

Tyler Durden — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 11:25:26 -0400

June Review of Major Asset Classes

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 11:20:44 -0400

June was a mixed bag of investment results. Emerging market bonds (Citigroup ESBI-C) led the pack among the major asset classes, advancing 1.1% last month. Commodities (DJ-UBS Commodity) were the big loser for the second straight month, shedding 5.0% in broad terms. Our passive market-value weighted mix of everything—the Global Market Index—suffered under the strain of the widespread selling. GMI fell 1.0% in June. GMI was off in May as well and so the index just had its first run of two straight monthly losses in a year.

Pattern of Unfilled Gaps Spells Trouble

Rob Hanna — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 11:04:27 -0400
Short-term direction is unclear at the moment. There is a mix of studies suggesting both bullish and bearish inclinations. Here is an interesting one from last night’s letter with bearish inclinations.

Visa and MasterCard Deserved a Higher Price

Chuck Carnevale — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 10:58:03 -0400

FX: Greenback Jumps as QE Ends

Kathy Lien — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 10:37:33 -0400

Watching the price action in the foreign exchange market today could be as interesting as watching paint dry. With most U.S. traders thinking about nothing other than their long weekend holiday plans and European traders holding off any fresh positioning ahead of the special July 3rd Euro-Area Finance Ministers meeting, it should be a quiet trading session.

Time to Break Out the Bubbly?

Gary Gordon — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 09:18:57 -0400

At the start of the week, analysts were wondering whether or not stocks could “hold the line.” Specifically, the bulls were simply hoping that the current price on the S&P 500 would stay above its 200-day moving average.

However, the S&P 500 had little trouble holding the 1263 level. In fact, by Thursday, June 30, the U.S. stock gauge rocketed skyward to 1320. That’s a staggering 4.1% in 4 days!

Stagflation Goes Global

Tyler Durden — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 08:15:41 -0400

Identify and Trade Trend Reversals Ahead of the Crowd

Editorial Staff — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 07:59:17 -0400

Textbook Trade in Crude

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 07:32:17 -0400

When learning to trade certain patterns or trade set-ups, it’s best to start with “ideal” real-world examples to understand the logic of the set-up.

Doing so allows us to recognize similar patterns or set-ups in real time as they develop, which calls us into trading action (entry, management, exit).

Crude Oil recently (June 28) gave us an intraday “Symmetrical Triangle” pattern breakout that was a textbook example of the formation, trigger, target, and outcome of a classic Symmetrical Triangle pattern.

Can Timmy Get His Old Job Back?

Jim Koford — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 03:53:28 -0400

Our friends at ZeroHedge suggest that Timmy may be on the way out.
Maybe he can get his old job back as a cast member on The Flintstones?

Bank Lending War Stories

Michael Kahn — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 03:38:20 -0400
The following is dramatized but the facts are true.

I just had reason to talk to my county's office of records this week. This is where they record titles, liens and other real estate related items. I would love to be a reporter to flesh out this story because it illustrates what banks are doing - and not doing - to facilitate consumer lending.

The Insidious Effects of Monetary Inflation

Steve Saville — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 12:41:29 -0400

An Interview with Todd Harrison

John Nyaradi — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 11:16:28 -0400

How to Play Insider Sentiment

Gary Gordon — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 09:40:45 -0400

Roughly two-thirds of all Americans express a pessimistic outlook on the economy as well as its future. Perhaps ironically, CNBC recently reported that wealthier citizens are even more downbeat than the nation at large.

One might hope that the bleak view is “transitory.” However, the middle class, upper-middle class and wealthiest among us are seriously skeptical about their prospects.

Search for Yield Turns Ugly for Investors

Dock David Treece — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 09:07:32 -0400

Over the past several decades there has been a noticeable trend away from the personal accountability that used to make this country great. Anymore it seems that when things go wrong it’s always someone else’s fault. There are plenty of fingers pointed, but hardly any solutions offered. Even crooks have someone to blame.

Sad as it is, even victims are usually deserving of some measure of culpability.

Still Plenty of Hurdles for Greece

Kathy Lien — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 08:11:42 -0400

EUR: TWO DOWN, FOUR MORE HURDLES TO OVERCOME

Is the Market Getting Ahead of Itself?

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 08:01:26 -0400

Market is migrating into overbought territory, so this will be a good test of this much belated bounce…

Fearmongering Breeds Investment Opportunities

Jeff Miller — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 07:48:15 -0400

Last week one of the TV pundits, one of those instant experts on Greece, opined that those in government were "market morons." He went on to explain that the Europeans would bungle the Greek situation and contagion would follow.

This viewpoint -- pretty widespread among the investment and trading community -- was misguided, overconfident, and ill-informed. Most importantly, it led to the wrong conclusion, providing an investment opportunity for everyone else.

With a little study, you can learn to outwit the punditry.

Goldman Trading Desk Sees Surge In Gold Prices Into Year End

Tyler Durden — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 07:25:34 -0400

Can the Bounce Continue?

John Nyaradi — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 07:18:03 -0400

Global stock markets rallied for a third day on the news that Greece might stave off default as the Parliament passed its austerity plan while rioters set the Ministry of Finance building on fire in protest.

Now the key question for U.S. ETF investors is, “Can the bounce continue?

This week should provide many answers as the Greek drama unfolds, the debt ceiling debate continues and key economic reports come in on Thursday and Friday.

Recognizing Correlations

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 04:41:06 -0400

Wednesdays With Wykoff

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 03:37:54 -0400

Head-and-Shoulders Watch for the Spoos

Jim Koford — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 03:24:48 -0400

I don't have to tell you that, over the past couple of years, the market has had a penchant for crushing the bears' hopes and dreams at the last possible moment, but I thought I'd take a second to point out a pattern that could be developing in the S&P 500.

Obviously, that neckline is something that investors need to be very aware of, and those negative divergences are definitely a heads-up.

SH Looking Pretty Good

Michael Kahn — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 02:32:01 -0400

A weekly chart of the S&P 500 itself does not show the inverse of what the inverse S&P 500 ETF shows.

I see a bullish divergence in weekly 14-bar RSI. If the March high is taken out.....

5 ETFs to Watch if Meredith is Right

Michael Johnston — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 10:44:53 -0400

Watch These Key Levels When Considering Your Trades

Jeff White — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 10:38:02 -0400

Last week we saw an important test of the March lows in the NAZ and RUT, while the S&P 500 held slightly above support from the spring. Those March lows give us a well-defined area to trade against, even if it’s a long way back up to the May highs. Stated otherwise, we may have just carved out the low end of a very wide range.

Look to These ETFs Which Showed Recent Relative Strength

Gary Gordon — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 09:00:46 -0400

At the end of April, most domestic and world equity benchmarks had hit new highs for 2011. The S&P 500 finished at 1363 — roughly 8.4% higher on the year.

By May 31, the U.S. stock gauge had dropped to 1345. And nearing the end of June, the heralded index drifted down to 1290. As far as corrections go, -5.3% is hardly a catastrophe.

Summer Doldrums? That's So 2010...

Jim Picerno — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 08:05:44 -0400

History isn’t repeating itself this summer. That may change, but for now the economy seems to be righting itself. Or perhaps it’s more accurate to say that the economy is finding some support. Granted, it's tenuous and precarious, but it's still better than the alternative. It was a different story a year ago, when the deterioration picked up a head of steam and trouble bubbled all the way through August. It’s still too early to rule out a repeat performance, but for the moment there’s reason to think that maybe, just maybe, the summer of 2011 will be better.

FX: Judgement Day for Greece

Kathy Lien — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 07:58:36 -0400

Effectively Using the TICK for Trading Decisions

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 07:39:07 -0400

Intraday traders must take into account volatility cycles when using the TICK intraday for trading decisions.

An intraday TICK reading of plus or minus 1,000 – often a trading entry or exit signal for some traders – means different things at different times in terms of the volatility cycles of both the market (high or low volatility) and of TICK itself.

Let’s take a look at the rolling 20 day moving average of the TICK over the last few years to see what this means:

Don't Forget This Key Ingredient to Your Trading Plan

Derek Hernquist — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 12:13:53 -0400

I recently had the pleasure of hosting Anne-Marie Baiynd for a talk with the Charlotte Market Technicians Association, and we were all treated to her fabulous insight on fibonacci in trading(David Blair wrote his take here). I asked a few questions of her in the days after, acknowledging how “levels” have always been the weakest part of my game.

Don't Forget This Key Ingredient to Your Trading Plan

Derek Hernquist — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 12:11:15 -0400

I recently had the pleasure of hosting Anne-Marie Baiynd for a talk with the Charlotte Market Technicians Association, and we were all treated to her fabulous insight on fibonacci in trading(David Blair wrote his take here). I asked a few questions of her in the days after, acknowledging how “levels” have always been the weakest part of my game.

Don't Forget This Key Ingredient to Your Trading Plan

Derek Hernquist — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 12:11:12 -0400

I recently had the pleasure of hosting Anne-Marie Baiynd for a talk with the Charlotte Market Technicians Association, and we were all treated to her fabulous insight on fibonacci in trading(David Blair wrote his take here). I asked a few questions of her in the days after, acknowledging how “levels” have always been the weakest part of my game.

China's "Hard Landing" Priced In?

Gary Gordon — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 11:52:46 -0400

Scores of investors are bracing themselves for a “hard landing” in China. Soft, medium, hard — the infatuation resembles a hapless consumer trying to determine the right box of tofu at the grocery store.

Let’s get real for a moment. Bloomberg’s poll of economists expect 9.5% GDP growth for China in 2011. The slightly more pessimistic poll known as “The Economist Intelligence Unit” sees 9.0%. Even the king of doom-n-gloom, Nouriel Roubini, expects 9.1%.

China's "Hard Landing" Priced In

Gary Gordon — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 11:30:34 -0400

Scores of investors are bracing themselves for a “hard landing” in China. Soft, medium, hard — the infatuation resembles a hapless consumer trying to determine the right box of tofu at the grocery store.

Let’s get real for a moment. Bloomberg’s poll of economists expect 9.5% GDP growth for China in 2011. The slightly more pessimistic poll known as “The Economist Intelligence Unit” sees 9.0%. Even the king of doom-n-gloom, Nouriel Roubini, expects 9.1%.

FX: Trading Key Euro/USD Levels

Greg Michalowski — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 11:17:42 -0400

Surprise! Data Bolsters Soft-Patchers

Jim Picerno — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 10:55:56 -0400

FX: Prepare for Fireworks into Quarter's End

Kathy Lien — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 10:33:15 -0400

The Myth of Earnings Estimates

Jeff Miller — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 10:15:59 -0400

A regular theme at "A Dash" is Wall Street Truthiness -- the things that many people believe whether there is evidence or not.

One such topic is the value of the analysts who produce research reports on the stocks of major corporations. No matter what evidence is produced, there are some who just keep repeating the tired conventional wisdom. Since these stories are once again in the news, let's take a closer look.

The Myth about Earnings Forecasts

Signs Point to Trouble for Gold

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 09:38:12 -0400

There seems to be a clean pattern repeating itself today that developed exactly one year ago which I’m finding interesting.

Let’s take a look at the pattern then, compare it to now, and over the next few weeks, see if the current future pathway of the pattern plays out as it did back in July 2010.

First, here’s the broader picture which shows the repeating pattern of price swings:

Commodities Wrap 06.27.11

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 04:15:01 -0400

Trading Wrap Up 06.27.11

Jim Koford — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 04:23:11 -0400

Current Price Pattern Favors Short-Term Perfomance

Rob Hanna — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 12:48:39 -0400
After posting a Follow-Through Day (FTD) on Tuesday, the market has now pulled back for 3 days in a row. Using the database of Follow-Through days from the original FTD study, I took a close look at short-term performance after other such post-FTD pullbacks. Of the 74 previous FTDs identified using the standard parameters from the original FTD study, 11 were immediately followed by three down days. Results following those instances can be found below.

Deflation by Dictatorship

Clif Droke — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 12:21:48 -0400

There are two major considerations for the nation's economic and financial health as we enter the second half of 2011. Each can be addressed in the form of a question: 1.) Will the Federal Reserve embark on a third attempt at stimulating economic recovery through money printing; and 2.) Has the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 peaked, and further, what will happen to the financial market once the 6-year cycle peaks in October? We'll attempt to answer both of these questions in the following commentary.

Internals and Commodities Flash Warning Signs for Stocks

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 12:15:33 -0400

Our global economy still faces significant balance sheet problems (assets vs. liabilities) at numerous points in the economic food chain. Consumers are still hurting from the reverse wealth effect created by falling asset prices. Numerous countries, including Greece, Spain, Portugal, and the U.S., are burdened by mismatches between government spending and revenue. Falling asset prices make problems with balance sheets worse and are not good for revenues from ad valorem taxes.

The S&P June 27

Ray Barros — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 09:15:23 -0400

The sell-off on Friday raises a doubt in my mind about the near-term trend. I was fairly convinced we had seen a low at 1251 basis Sept. The inability of the S&P to mount a sustained rally when it ‘ought to’ raises the likelihood that 1371 (basis cash) will be the high for the year. For this view to be correct, we need to see acceptance below 1249, basis cash (1243 basis Sept).

The alternative scenario is we’ll see 1249 will hold and then we’ll see a rally that will last until late July or early August.

FX: Greece and the End of QE2 Still Dominate

Kathy Lien — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 09:22:58 -0400

Your Trading Compass for the Week Ahead

Jeff Miller — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 09:15:09 -0400

In most years this would be a quiet part of the investment calendar, a snoozy summer week. Earnings season has not yet started, but vacations have. Volume is low. Technical levels are being tested.

In such times it does not take much to spark a big move. With the investment committee members off at the beach, some firms may take a few days to change policy. The field is open for the agile trader, but he had better get it right!

The War Against Savers

David Merkel — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 08:45:14 -0400

Today, Charles Rotblut, CFA who is the AAII Journal Editor wrote:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke continues to be the enemy of savers. Yesterday, the Boston Red Sox fan reiterated his belief that interest rates should be kept at rock-bottom levels for an extended period of time. He views this as necessary in order to keep the economy growing.

FrontRunning 06.27.11

Tyler Durden — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 08:11:30 -0400

How to Trade the Current Price Compression

Corey Rosenbloom — Sun, 26 Jun 2011 07:11:23 -0400

Well this is certainty a very interesting predicament – the Daily Charts of the three major US Equity Indexes are all showing EMA compression.

Short-term daily moving averages are falling as long-term averages are rising, and price is distinctly trapped BETWEEN these averages that are on a collision course with each other and price will soon be squeezed one way or the other.

It’s a unique situation we should be watching, so let’s start with the S&P 500:

When Markets Cry Out for Help

Bob Lang — Sun, 26 Jun 2011 08:21:58 -0400

Play Defense Until the Fed Acts

Chris Ciovacco — Sun, 26 Jun 2011 08:14:46 -0400

Prior to the Fed’s June 22 statement, there were enough positive technical developments to justify a belief that Chairman Bernanke would give the markets a much needed push. The market wanted some signal the Fed is willing to implement some form of additional quantitative easing (QE) sooner rather than later. That is not what the market got.

Be Prepared for a Breakout

John Nyaradi — Sun, 26 Jun 2011 07:54:35 -0400

Major stock market indexes continued to meander between significant support and resistance levels and this, of course, can’t go on forever.

Expect a breakout soon, possibly as early as this week, as we reach the end of the quarter and half year mark.

We continue to see significant risk to the downside in most ETF asset classes and believe that we are in a significant stock market correction within what is still a longer term uptrend, but an uptrend that faces growing threats on a daily basis.

Summer Doldrums

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 03:46:38 -0400
It does not take much in the way of volume to move markets in thin trade so be careful. Wind was taken from the bulls sales in Crude this week as prices traded down to seven month lows.

August Crude is finding buyers at $90/barrel but that level will need to hold or prices could see $85 in the coming weeks. Some clients are long from higher levels and I’m thinking we see $95 before $85. The distillates will need to bottom before we see any upside in Crude as well.

Under the Surface Market Update 06.24.11

Editorial Staff — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 03:21:26 -0400

Is a New Bear Market Emerging?

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 01:41:04 -0400
Thanks to June’s sizable and rather-sharp stock-market selloff, fears are growing that a new bear market is brewing. For investors and speculators, the implications of these concerns are not trivial. Optimal trading strategies vary wildly between bull and bear, as bears relentlessly maul down all sectors including popular ones like commodities stocks. So today’s bull-or-bear question is critically important to address.

Soft-Patchers Get a Little Relief

Jim Picerno — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 12:27:27 -0400

Score another point in favor of the soft patch theory vs. expecting a new recession around the next corner. New orders for durable goods rose by a seasonally 1.9% in May, reversing the previous month’s sharp 2.7% loss. If we strip out some of the volatile sectors of the report, there’s still a pop in last month’s tally. For example, ignoring transportation equipment leaves durable goods orders up by 0.6%; excluding defense translates into a 1.9% gain for the rest of new orders for durable goods.

Watch This Developing Divergence

Jeff Pietsch — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 12:21:26 -0400

Imperfect and Lovin' It!

Jeff White — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 11:51:42 -0400

Society trains us to want to be perfect. And in many endeavors, that’s something worth striving for. Surgeons, for example, can put you at ease when they tell you they’ve performed this operation hundreds of times without any problems. Students with perfect grades get academic scholarships, saving boatloads of tuition money. And the list of examples of the benefits of perfection goes on and on.

The Hard Trade

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 04:50:00 -0400
In my career generally the hardest trades have been my most successful. Buying on days like today is not easy but likely the correct move. The EIA’s move of releasing SPR’s will grab headlines in Crude but in our opinion will be a moot point by next week if not sooner. We consume north of 80M barrels a day and they are releasing 60M barrels…do the math.

Why Can't Tech Catch a Break?

Gary Gordon — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 10:47:46 -0400

In the last month, both Linked In (LNKD) and Pandora (P) came to the New York Stock Exchange with an enormous amount of fanfare. Both IPOs held out the promise of a new appreciation for the future of business. And yet, each IPO currently resides below the lowest price on the first day that shares traded.

The low for LNKD on its first day on the big board? 80. Unfortuantely, LNKD finished Thursday, 6/23, at 70 — a disappointing -12.5% below its opening day floor price. Pandora (P), the Internet radio company, is off a more bearish -19.3%.

The Fall of the American Empire

Ray Barros — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 10:19:17 -0400
This I saw yesterday

WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Lawmakers are considering changing how the Consumer Price Index is calculated, a move that could save perhaps $220 billion and represent significant progress in the ongoing federal debt ceiling and deficit reduction talks.

According to congressional aides familiar with the discussions, the proposal would shift how the Consumer Price Index is calculated to reflect how people tend to change spending patterns when prices increase. For example, consumers tend to drive less when gas prices increase dramatically.

FX: Buck Bolstered by Data and Italy News

Kathy Lien — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 09:56:38 -0400
Stronger durable goods orders and an upward revision to first quarter GDP helped the U.S. dollar hold onto its gains against most of the major currencies. Overall it has been a quiet morning in most pairs with the EUR/USD trading lower than where it opened at the start of the European session.

bookAd-greenfaucet

Michelle Rivera — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 09:50:23 -0400

How to Trade the Russell Rebalancing

Jim Koford — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 09:19:42 -0400

FrontRunning 06.24.11

Tyler Durden — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 08:47:59 -0400

Home Page Shar

Jim Slagle — Fri, 24 Jun 2011 07:17:40 -0400

Trader's Wrap-Up

Jim Koford — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 04:26:22 -0400

If yesterday’s disappointments weren’t enough, poor action in overseas markets and another dose of weak data this morning all conspired to push stocks sharply lower at the opening bell. An early move towards the S&P 500’s 200dma, however, brought out some support, but the move off that important technical yardstick was far from enthusiastic.

FOMC Fallout

Bob Barnes — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 12:04:52 -0400

Just when you thought it was safe to get back in the water the FED does a whack-a-mole and closes the door on QE2. Actually, this was the pre-set course with July 11th already announced as the end of POMO but traders are an optimistic bunch and eternally hopeful that the FED would do more to prop up the disappointing recovery.

FOMC Fallout

Bob Barnes — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 12:03:49 -0400

Just when you thought it was safe to get back in the water the FED does a whack-a-mole and closes the door on QE2. Actually, this was the pre-set course with July 11th already announced as the end of POMO but traders are an optimistic bunch and eternally hopeful that the FED would do more to prop up the disappointing recovery.

How Traders Get a Raise

Jeff White — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 11:57:38 -0400

Every business has overhead (some more than others), and although you may not have a brick-and-mortar storefront, you certainly have overhead as a trader.

It’s business 101 that to make more money, you either bring in more revenue or you fatten your profit margin by cutting costs. Plenty of posts on this blog discuss ways to accomplish the former, but today, we’ll talk about the fastest way to achieve the latter.

Shopping List Remains Short

Derek Hernquist — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 11:53:15 -0400

In the wee hours of every morning, I filter my stock universe as step 1 of the trade process. It’s the equivalent of running through 500 or so charts, but my brain can’t maintain focus and objectivity for that long so scanning and color coding in Excel works better for me. The goal in this exercise is simply to find buyable and shortable candidates, not trades.

Jobless Claims Trend Remains Troubling

Jim Picerno — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 11:07:26 -0400

FX: Data Fails to Sooth Frayed Nerves

Kathy Lien — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 10:37:51 -0400

Weaker economic data from nearly all parts of the world (U.S., China and Europe) sent investors back into the arms of the low yielding U.S. dollar. Over the past 12 hours, the greenback traded higher against all of the major currencies. The prospect of an end to QE amidst continuing uncertainty in Greece has made investors weary of owning the EUR/USD.

Bernanke Disappoints

Jeff Miller — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 10:19:46 -0400

Let me put this bluntly: Bernanke did not communicate effectively. His message and presentation were both poor.

I do not mean that he is substantively wrong, just that he did not effectively communicate his message. As regular readers of "A Dash" know, I have been one of his biggest supporters. What went wrong?

Negative Divergences Into Resistance

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 09:28:44 -0400

Ever since observing positive momentum and internal divergences at the 1,260 level (200d SMA), the upside target for the S&P 500 has been a retest of the 1,300 level.

One could say the test happened today, and the current structure reveals now a negative internal (and momentum) divergence situation into this target resistance level, giving us a neat lesson in combining internals with key price levels and the trade opportunities that arise from them.

The Case for Cash

Dock David Treece — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 08:54:08 -0400

Breadth's Effect on Follow-Through Days

Rob Hanna — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 08:41:32 -0400

The higher volume and the strong gains on the 4th day of an attempted rally means Tuesday qualified as a Follow-Through Day (FTD) under the Investors Business Daily rules. Most striking to me was not the price gains or the volume but the exceptionally strong breadth on Tuesday. I ran several tests that examined how strong breadth on a FTD might affect its chances of success.

Internals Holding Up

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 22 Jun 2011 02:33:00 -0400

Wednesdays With Wycoff: Mental Poise and Calm

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 22 Jun 2011 02:30:30 -0400

In his writings, Richard Wyckoff has a penchant for colorful imagery that makes it more fun to learn the concepts than a standard academic textbook.

Today’s entry in the “Wednesday with Wyckoff” educational series includes one of his more colorful descriptions of how a trader should adopt a calm mindset and react to opportunities as they develop.

In discussing “Obstacles to Overcome” in his book Studies in Tape Reading, we are treated with the following insights (and imagery about an omelet):

Spike In BofA Bullish Call Activity Ahead Of FOMC

Tyler Durden — Wed, 22 Jun 2011 01:16:31 -0400

A Couple Great Quant Publications Worth Noting

Ray Barros — Wed, 22 Jun 2011 01:00:35 -0400

I subscribe to two excellent publications that provide quant studies:

Bernanke: How Protective He Has Come

Bob Lang — Wed, 22 Jun 2011 12:53:30 -0400

Wednesday puts us on the other half of the Fed meeting, where at high noon Ben Bernanke and friends will announce their policy statement, then two hours later the Chairman will have a press conference and take questions from the media. I don’t expect much change but perhaps some acknowledgement of a sluggish economy and employment. The stated dual mandate seems to be on the rocks – but I suspect our Chairman will try and pull a rabbit out of his hat.

Strategic Briefing | 6.22.2011 | The End of QE2

Jim Picerno — Wed, 22 Jun 2011 12:43:58 -0400

Economy's 'training wheels' to come off
CNNMoney | June 22

Analyzing the Effect of QE II

Jeff Miller — Wed, 22 Jun 2011 10:30:04 -0400

The Fed's plan for quantitative easing was innovative and therefore unprecedented. No one could know for sure what to expect, so there was abundant speculation.

That speculation has created an atmosphere of confusion and misinformation.

Background

FrontRunning 06.22.11

Tyler Durden — Wed, 22 Jun 2011 09:26:07 -0400

Squeeze to $129.50 Resistance

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 12:42:05 -0400

Here we are again — a better technical place this time — but set against two fairly large news events in terms of the Greece confidence vote and the FOMC Statement tomorrow.

Is a Secular Change in the Credit Market Afoot?

Steve Saville — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 12:27:46 -0400

Bank Reserves, Money Supply, and a Secular Change In Credit

Below is an excerpt from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 19th June 2011.

Bank Reserves and Money Supply

Traders on Alert After Follow-Through Day...

Rob Hanna — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 12:24:18 -0400
From the 5/2 peak down to the low on 6/16 the SPX declined 8.2%. After such a decline, Investors Business Daily followers will be eagerly awaiting a follow-though day (FTD) before looking to aggressively allocate intermediate-term trend following positions to their portfolios. I conducted and published to the blog extensive research into IBD Follow-Through-Days (FTD) over the last few years.

I’ll be updating some of it and showing some new information in the next several days, but I would suggest readers that are interested in FTDs may want check out the links below.

Wisdom Tree Tweaks Seven Equity ETFs

Michael Johnston — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 12:14:20 -0400

WisdomTree completed a number of previously announced changes to its ETF lineup this week, making minor changes to seven of the company’s equity funds. Four ETFs received new tickers as a result of the overhaul:

Dollar Remains Weak Ahead of FOMC, Housing Data Fails to Help

Kathy Lien — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 12:11:16 -0400

Confirmation

Bob Barnes — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 12:08:32 -0400

China And India Small Cap ETFs Still Reeling From Global Slowdown Fears

Gary Gordon — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 12:06:08 -0400

This past Saturday, Former Minnesota governor and presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty addressed a group of conservatives in Minneapolis. According to a variety of news sources, he stated, ”If China can have 5% growth and India can have 5% growth and Brazil can have 5% growth, the United States can have 5% growth.”

Nasdaq Flashing Major Warning Signals

John Nyaradi — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 11:36:52 -0400
The Nasdaq Composite, often seen as a leading indicator for the broader indexes, has entered a significant correction in recent weeks, and several of its most prominent members are in important downtrends.

There are winners and losers in every market environment and strategies using exchange-traded funds can help us navigate these troubled waters.

Continue Reading

The Super Powers of Ben Bernanke

Jeff Miller — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 10:52:17 -0400

This article reveals some special powers of the Fed Chair -- powers that no one knew about before!

A few weeks ago I generated a resesarch hypothesis -- not data mining the way most Wall Street research is done -- but actually starting with the hypothesis. We can now reveal the amazing results.

What I Think Technical Analysis Is

David Merkel — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 10:50:05 -0400

I have internally debated about writing this for years. I hold the following with weak conviction, and invite correction.

If I want to describe fundamental investing, I will use a model of free cash flows. Now, few value investors invest that way, but most approximate it. There is one theory behind fundamental investing — the real returns of businesses drive stock prices.

Market Surges After Existing Home Sales Drop: But Did They?

Tyler Durden — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 10:48:15 -0400

Defending Modern Portfolio Theory...Again

Jim Picerno — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 10:45:24 -0400

Modern portfolio theory (MPT) has become the whipping boy in recent years, and rightly so. Too many investors and financial advisors put it on a pedestal and assumed it had powers it could never achieve. Couple that with a global financial crisis and you have the groundwork for disappointment.

Wycoff and the S&P 500

Ray Barros — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 10:42:01 -0400

A couple of readers asked for a Wyckoff Analysis on the S&P in lieu of the Wolfe Wave analysis that I did the other day. Here it is.

Figure 1 shows the move down in the 81-minute chart (day session only) from 1371 in the 1252 with Wyckoff Notations; Figure 2 shows the Daily Chart of the same move with the retracement levels drawn in.

Moving Parts Important Here

Bob Lang — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 09:39:32 -0400

What fascinates me lately is the amount of opinions out there how issues should be solved. Some are valid solutions, yet most of these people should not lose their day jobs! Whether we’re talking the eurozone, our Fed or politics, the opinions vary on what to do. The markets have started to reflect the many views of uncertainty, the VIX rising mostly out of fear of the unknown.

There is Only One Fed

What the 200-Day Moving Average Means for Leading Stocks

David Grandey — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 02:26:00 -0400

Is Och-Ziff Reviving The Dispersion Trade?

Jared Woodard — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 02:21:21 -0400

Och-Ziff Capital Management (NYSE:OZM), the publicly-traded fund of funds, is getting some attention today from its 13F disclosure to the SEC in May. The asset manager disclosed that it bought nearly $12B in equity options in the first quarter of 2011. Some traders interpreted this as a straightforward bet on increasing volatility, but I had the following comments in a Bloomberg story this morning:

7 Interesting ETF Holdings: Why Investors Should Always Look Under The Hood

Michael Johnston — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 02:07:18 -0400

The old adage “never judge a book by its cover” has been applied to a wide variety of situations over the years, from encouraging open mindedness in social situations to shopping for a car to, well, judging books by their covers. And it turns out this piece of advice can be quite valuable for investors as well, especially those who have embraced ETFs as tools for building long-term portfolios or establishing short-term tactical tilts.

Up Off the 200-Day Mat

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 02:03:22 -0400

The S&P500 opened up right on its 200-day EMA, where it had 70% chances of closing the lap down according to the ETF Rewind Pro “Gap Tab”, as follows:

Euro Turns Positive: Will the Gains Last?

Kathy Lien — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 02:00:31 -0400

Wolfe Waves: Context and Characteristics

Ray Barros — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 01:58:17 -0400

I have received quite a few requests to follow-up on Wolfe Waves. Here is my take. In the free section of my site, I’ll be uploading the material I found on the net.

Figure 1 shows an ideal Bullish Wolfe Wave. It’s a very common pattern and I found that I applied it will-nilly, I’d lose money. I did find that I turned into a profitable pattern if I used it in the proper context. But before I get into ‘context’ let’s look at the essential characteristics of the BullishWolfe Wave.

Tactical ETF Review: 6.20.2011

Jim Picerno — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 01:55:59 -0400

Mapping State (Un)Employment Trends

Tyler Durden — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 01:35:28 -0400

On Friday, the BLS released its monthly state employment and unemployment summary. The Bberg chart below summarizes the results. Bottom line: lots of red, a little green and quite a bit unchanged.
BLS commentary:

Trading Widespread Panic: Does it Make Sense?

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 01:33:06 -0400

“I know it when I see it.” Potter Stewart

A Quick Lesson on How to Identify Price Structure in Trends

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 01:23:16 -0400

Do you know how to quantify price structure? It’s not a difficult concept at all, yet many traders miss the benefit of taking a moment to assess objective price structure in the context of a developing trend.

Doing so allows you to assess objectively the next likely swing, and thus the most probable trading strategy to take. Let’s take a brief moment to review the basics of identifying price structure on multiple timeframes.

Let’s start with a long-term weekly chart of the Philadelphia Housing Index:

After Greece, Portugal? Euro Contagion Spreads

Tyler Durden — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 12:25:22 -0400

Even Super Sexy PE Ratios Can't Overcome Growth Fears

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 11:38:06 -0400

With QE2 winding down, China raising interest rates, and debt problems in Europe, investors have not responded to strong earnings growth. According to Bloomberg:

Join the Trader's Tip-Off Newsletter Mailing List!

Fri, 17 Jun 2011 01:38:30 -0400

Trading Stock Fear

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 12:58:42 -0400

The stock markets’ sharp June selloff is waking traders from their complacent slumber. The risk of a significant selloff, long ignored, has surged back to the forefront of market psychology. These pullbacks and corrections are healthy and necessary within ongoing bull markets, but they don’t end until fear grows great enough to rebalance sentiment. And today, stock fear is still too low for a bottoming.

FX: Hope for a Greek Bailout Overshadows US Data

Kathy Lien — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 12:26:24 -0400

As the Greek Tragedy continues to unfold, every word from European officials have caused investors to vacillate between hope and fear. For most of the week fear was the dominating force in the market with political uncertainty in Greece and the parallels drawn to Lehman Brothers scaring investors into dumping euros. However signs that Germany is finally willing to back down on their

iShares Launches Floating Bond ETF (FLOT)

Michael Johnston — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 12:05:17 -0400

What Will Get Me to Buy?

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 12:00:53 -0400

Triple Stock Index at Critical Support

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 11:54:42 -0400

Traders in general are watching critical daily confluence support levels very closely this week – and so far the levels are holding into Friday.

Let’s take a quick triple index fly-by check on the key daily support levels and plot out likely scenarios.

First, the S&P 500:

Commodity ETNs/ETFs Suggest The Global Economy May Pick Back Up

Gary Gordon — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 11:51:15 -0400

Before it was fashionable to question the sustainability of worldwide GDP growth, I did exactly that. I questioned it. (See March 9, 2011’s “Copper ETFs May Be Indicating A Pause For The Bull Market.”)

Summer Reading Ideas

Jeff Miller — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 11:47:45 -0400
Summertime! Investors can kick back on the beach and do some reading while sipping a favorite beverage.
Abnormal Returns is also on a (well-deserved) vacation, leaving many readers without the daily links they crave. To fill the gap Tadas created a series of questions on interesting topics.

I really like ideas that create information you would not otherwise see. The "Desert Island" quiz meets that objective. I am posting the links -- all worth checking out -- and then adding my own answers.

Strategic Briefing: The Greek Debt Crisis

Jim Picerno — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 11:46:06 -0400

Worries Grow About Breadth of Debt Crisis
The New York Times | June 17

When the VIX Spikes and SPX Also Rises...

Rob Hanna — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 11:44:40 -0400
While the major indices finished Thursday with mixed moderate moves, the VIX jumped quite a bit higher. It finished 6.7% above Wednesday’s close. It’s very unusual to see the VIX spike up on a day the SPX also closes higher. This is especially true on a day other than Monday, since Mondays show a tendency for a rising VIX. The study below addresses this.

U of M Misses, 5-Year Inflation Expectations Rise To Second Highest In 2011

Tyler Durden — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 11:29:44 -0400

Dollar’s Close Friday Important for Stocks and Commodities

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 11:25:22 -0400

Investors are faced with numerous concerns, including:

All Together Now – JUMP!

Bob Lang — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 01:00:09 -0400

Spotlight: SPDR KBW Bank ETF (KBE)

Jim Slagle — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 12:57:15 -0400

Read This Before Jumping on the ETF Bandwagon

Jim Slagle — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 12:49:10 -0400

Asian Bond ETFs And Asian Currency ETFs: Reasonable Reward For Limited Risk

Gary Gordon — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 12:39:57 -0400

Less than a year ago, China eclipsed Japan as the world’s 2nd largest economy. And there’s little doubt that China will uproot the U.S. as “numero uno,” though the anticipated hand-over date may be a decade more in the making.

Drilling down by region, however, the Asia Pacific ex-Japan designation should supplant the U.S. midway through the next presidential cycle. There’s simply no doubting the role that countries like Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and China play in reshaping the global GDP landscape.

Caught in a Trap

Jeff White — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 12:29:32 -0400

Anytime the market tanks like it has lately, astute traders realize that shorting after a decline of this magnitude and momentum is a real potential bear trap. A sharp rebound could come at any time, leaving late shorts in a world of hurt.

I can’t and won’t argue with that - in the short term.

BarroMetrics Views: Context and Trading

Ray Barros — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 12:14:25 -0400

One of the areas I feel is most neglected trading education is the importance of context.

There is a pattern I use in my trading, Wolfe Waves, that I find useful in the appropriate context. We are seeing the pattern and its context in the S&P today.

Fragile Start

Bob Barnes — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 10:53:24 -0400

OK trader buddies.. let’s check the action 90 minutes in today……….

Join Corey Thursday for Live Webcast from Dallas on Execution Tactics

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 11:49:49 -0400

If you’re unable to make it down to Dallas, TX for this week’s Traders Expo, don’t fret!

The Expo is hosting live webinar events throughout the Expo, and I’m pleased to announce I will be presenting on “Trade Execution Tactics” during a live webinar session this Thursday, June 16th at 4:30 CST.

How to Watch and Interpret the Greece Story

Jeff Miller — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 11:33:37 -0400

There was big news today. As usual, the trading reaction takes the simple approach -- as it should. There is something bad happening. It could be contagion. It could be systemic risk. There is rioting in the streets. This cannot possibly be good news, so let's sell.

Why would anyone buy? Economic data are bad, and who knows when it will change. [Please note that there is a buyer for every seller, or markets would not clear.]

The Most Ridiculous Justification For Why Stocks Will End The Year Higher

Tyler Durden — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 11:47:41 -0400

If the following surreal justification for why the market is not behaving as a typical Wall Street lemming would like it to behave, does not have the impact of an immediate and surgery-free lobotomy, nothing will.
From UBS' Jonathan Golub:

SICK vs. CURE: Direxion Rolls Out Leveraged Health Care ETFs

Michael Johnston — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 12:06:40 -0400

Direxion continued the expansion of its already robust lineup of leveraged and inverse ETFs on Wednesday, debuting two pairs of 3x daily products along with an inverse fund offering short exposure to an index replicated by one of the most popular U.S. equity ETFs. The latest additions to the ETF lineup include:

Strategic Briefing: U.S. Inflation

Jim Picerno — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 11:50:30 -0400

Consumer Prices in U.S. Probably Rose in May at Slowest Pace in Six Months
Bloomberg | June 15

The Stock Correction Is Over: No Double Dip, No Armageddon

Larry Kudlow — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 11:42:07 -0400

YOUR Trading Plan, Part 2

Jeff White — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 11:31:04 -0400
In Part 1, I put forth some questions that need to be answered by you in order to move forward with any lasting effect. Those help you identify what it is you’re after, what styles you should pursue, and which approaches you should completely avoid. Let’s proceed.
Start With the Basics

Understanding your preferences, biases, needs and availabilities will clarify your basic approach.

Voracious Demand for USD Despite Weak Manufacturing Data

Kathy Lien — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 11:26:26 -0400

The Biggest Investor Fear and How to Meet It

Jeff Miller — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 11:20:31 -0400

Most of those in the baby boomer generation are scared silly. They are worried about retirement -- even poverty. In the best case many now expect to work much longer before retirement.

Investment mistakes have been part of their problem. If they make more mistakes, there will be no solution.

In this article I will provide an outline of the thought process required to be a successful individual investor. Then I will suggest some ideas about how this applies right now.

Wednesdays with Wyckoff: How I Select a Stock for Investing

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 11:12:02 -0400

Switching gears for this week’s “Wednesdays with Wyckoff” series, Richard Wyckoff not only contributed insights into the trading community, but also the broader investing world.

This week’s update focuses on Wyckoff’s Six Factors he used for selecting a stock to buy as an investment, and they are as follows:

1. The Longer Term Trend of the Stock Market

2. The Nature and Tendency of the Industry of a Stock

An Indication of Things to Come?

Ray Barros — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 11:02:15 -0400

Barclays' Comments: This is Probably Not Good

Tyler Durden — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 10:57:58 -0400

BARCLAYS' JENKINS SAYS `SERIOUS' PROBLEMS IN EUROPEAN UNIT
For those who may have forgotten, back in the summer of 2007 Bear Stearns had some problems with some of its own units as well...
And some of the other soundbites:

Vanguard, iShares Swarm the 401(k) Buds

Jim Slagle — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 01:08:30 -0400

Trade What I See?

Derek Hernquist — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 12:59:15 -0400

A couple times a year, I re-organize my nightly trading “cheat sheet”. It’s not a change of approach, it’s simply a new and (hopefully) improved way of visualizing my information. The changes are sometimes subtle, but as years pass the before and after is laughable. Here’s the latest, I’m technologically challenged so just consider it a poorly formatted example:

First Small Cap REIT ETF Debuts: ROOF

Michael Johnston — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 12:51:32 -0400

Direxion Details Three Non-Leveraged ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 12:49:21 -0400

Evaluating Australian ETFs During The Country’s “Soft Patch”

Gary Gordon — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 12:48:05 -0400

Can you name the developed country that hasn’t experienced a recession in close to 20 years? It’s Australia. And not only did the land “down under” weather the dot-com disaster that ushered in the 21st century, the nation also made it through the global credit collapse of 2008.

Equally worthy of note, Australia was the first developed world sovereignty to raise interest rates in the fight against inflation. The 4.75% overnight lending rate is the highest in the industrialized world.

USD Rallies on Better than Expected Retail Sales

Kathy Lien — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 12:39:31 -0400

Critical Price Support Below in Energy ETF (XLE)

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 12:36:13 -0400

While scanning the major Sector ETFs, a shelf of support (pattern) in the Energy ETF – symbol XLE – caught my eye.

Let’s take a look at the current support level at $72 and then note a logical downside target if the key support level here fails to result in a rally as the next swing.

You don’t need magic indicators to tell you that $72.00 is a critical short-term price boundary in the XLE fund.

The Five Stages of the Kress Cycle Tsunami

Clif Droke — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 12:28:55 -0400

Retail Sales "Slip" in May: Should We Be Alarmed?

Jim Picerno — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 12:14:50 -0400

What "Backs" Today's Money? (Part 2)

Steve Saville — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 11:57:03 -0400
Our 6th June commentary included a short piece titled "What backs today's money?", in which we attempted to explain that money is not "backed" by anything and nor does it need to be. Money is what it is -- the most commonly used medium of exchange within an economy. This piece was subsequently posted as a standalone article at a few web sites and generated an unusually large amount of feedback (questions, comments and objections). Today we'll address the three most common objections.

Rosenberg On What Is Ailing The Market

Tyler Durden — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 02:49:38 -0400

David Rosenberg provides the key bulletized market observations that have marked the broad capital markets over the past few months.

Investors Shift Into Defensive ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 12:10:57 -0400

Superdividend ETF Makes Splash in Debut

Jim Slagle — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 11:56:52 -0400

Critical Crossroads for the S&P 500

Ray Barros — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 11:43:58 -0400
It seems to me the S&P is at a cusp.
I originally thought we were repeating the 1966 to 1982 structure. I formed this view in 2000 and to date the analogy has served me well. This June price action has raised another alternative.

FX: Terrible Tuesday Ahead?

Kathy Lien — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 11:31:40 -0400

It has been a quiet morning in the foreign exchange market with parts of Europe and all of Australia closed for holiday. The lack of U.S. economic reports should also keep the North American session quiet even with Fed Presidents Lacker and Fisher scheduled to speak, because only one is a voting member of the FOMC (Fisher). Nonetheless today is not an opportunity to be complacent because a heavy dose of economic data from China, the U.K., U.S. and New Zealand will be released over the next 24 hours.

Three ETFs That Cold be Crushed by a Housing Double-Dip

Michael Johnston — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 11:27:55 -0400

Updating the Intraday Arc Pattern Forming in Gold

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 11:22:17 -0400

At the start of last week, I showed the “Arc Pattern” trendline boundaries that were forming at the peak of the intraday arc in gold prices, and this week, the arc continues right on schedule.

Let’s take a look at the updated/current “Arc” pattern and then see where that structure takes us on the daily support chart.

Asset Allocation, Risk Premia & Sharpe Ratios

Jim Picerno — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 11:12:39 -0400

Weighing the Week Ahead: Has Stock Selling Gone Too Far?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 11:06:47 -0400

Six weeks of stock declines raise the question: For how long will the market keep responding to the same news?

From one perspective, weakness in economic data was to be expected. Everyone knew there were supply chain disruptions from Japan and consumer cutbacks from higher fuel prices. The mainstream economic thought is that the tepid recovery will continue after these aberrations.

TICK Tomoscillator Hitting An Extreme

Rob Hanna — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 11:03:15 -0400

Permabulls Bus Crashes: Who are the Worst Stockpickers of 2011?

Tyler Durden — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 10:59:44 -0400

ETF News Update: Crunch Time for U.S. Stock Markets

John Nyaradi — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 10:56:10 -0400

End of a Correction or Start of a Bear?

Bob Lang — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 10:45:22 -0400

7-ETF Portfolio With Low Correlating Assets Beats The S&P 500

Gary Gordon — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 12:49:34 -0400

Investors have become so accustomed to the notion of “risk on” and “risk off,” many have cast aside one of the most hallowed principles of success. Specifically, reducing the possibility of loss (a.k.a. “risk”) requires individual assets that do not all move in the same direction.

Currency & Commodities: QE3 Not Imminent - Remain Defensive

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 12:43:41 -0400

Despite weak economic data, most economists remain optimistic about a second half rebound in the economy. From Bloomberg:

Deutsche Debuts Suite Of Currency Hedged Equity ETFs

Jim Slagle — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 12:38:25 -0400

06.10.11 – New Lows

Jeff Pietsch — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 12:35:33 -0400

Price appears to be stabilizing near R2 at the mid-day, but internals have been particularly weak and the March Lows/ 200-day Moving Averages loom large….

With Technical Support Breached, Here Is Where The ES Is Heading Next

Tyler Durden — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 12:19:03 -0400

Now that the market has successfully retested the 150 DMA with a little assistance from David Tepper who really said nothing new, below we present the immediate support levels in the ES. The 200 DMA and the March swing lows are next (and yes, there are about 20 points in the ES before we go to unchanged for the year).

A New Survey On The Economy Offers A Bit Of Optimism

Jim Picerno — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 12:07:16 -0400

The economic news in recent weeks suggests that the recovery has hit a rough patch, but at least one forward-looking review of the macro trend says the rearview mirror may be misleading. The 35 economists in yesterday’s update of the biannual Livingston Survey—the longest-running continuous set of predictions by dismal scientists—see moderately improving conditions in the second half of this year.

The Corporate Tax Code: Time for One Simple Change

David Merkel — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 12:04:47 -0400

Longtime readers know that I favor a simplification of the tax code, for both individuals and corporations. Working as an actuary inside life insurance companies, I saw the complexity of accounting with up to seven accounting bases running at the same time.

FX: It Has Been a Tough Week for Risk

Kathy Lien — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 12:02:31 -0400

Five ETF Strategies For A Sideways Market

Michael Johnston — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 11:59:20 -0400

Nasdaq Now Down For the Year

Tyler Durden — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 11:44:05 -0400

Tepper giveth (the escalator), Tepper taketh away (the elevator)

Bond ETFs: Should You Follow the Advice of Bill Gross?

Gary Gordon — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 05:42:30 -0400

Pimco’s Bill Gross believes treasury investors could be on a very dangerous path. In fact, he’s been slamming treasuries for months, even as their gains have been phenomenal.

Bear Flag Lessons and Current Levels to Watch in SINA

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 05:38:57 -0400

I’m seeing a lot of comments about Sina.com (SINA) stock, first with the run-up in share prices and now with the stellar retracement/sell-off phase underway.

Let’s take a look at the current action and mix in a few important trading tips and lessons along the way.

First, the “bigger picture” Daily Chart for perspective:

FX Volatiltiy - US, Canadian Trade and ECB

Kathy Lien — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 05:34:59 -0400

Dividend ETF On Steroids: Global X Debuts “SuperDividend” Fund

Michael Johnston — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 05:26:37 -0400

Stock Volume Collapses: Must Be an Up Day

Tyler Durden — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 04:56:22 -0400

Frontrunning, June 9

Tyler Durden — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 07:08:10 -0400

Markets to Ben: Bring Back our Punchbowl!

John Nyaradi — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 12:07:34 -0400
Global markets continued their fade Tuesday as everyone realized that Dr. Bernanke and the Federal Reserve were not going to be forthcoming (at least for now) with another "punchbowl" in the form of "QE3″
The sound of hissing air from the bubble was almost audible yesterday after Dr. Bernanke's speech and U.S. markets turned south.
The southerly migration continued with the sun across the globe and brought U.S. markets their 6th down day today, now mid-way through their sixth down week.

Treasuries vs. Stocks at Crucial Technical Moment

Tyler Durden — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 11:51:03 -0400

Obamanomics: The Flat Earth Society

Dock David Treece — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 08:19:36 -0400

In 2008 the United States experienced an economic downturn as the result of a financial crisis which, according to policy leaders like Ben Bernanke and then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, nearly caused a global financial meltdown. Prior to this most recent collapse, the most recession of such magnitude occurred in 1982, just a year into Ronald Reagan’s first term.

Apple Products vs. Platform

Bill Luby — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 01:46:58 -0400

Apple (AAPL) is an unusual stock for several reasons, not the least of which is the strong retail demand for the stock and a large contingent of customer-zealots who regularly worship at the altar of Steve Jobs.

What's Next for the AUD?

Kathy Lien — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 12:11:08 -0400

What is the Crowd Thinking?

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 11:45:37 -0400

Rosenberg's Takeaways From Bernanke's Speech: "Cause For Pause"

Tyler Durden — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 11:41:50 -0400

Yesterday we brought you Goldman's quite bearish takeway on Bernanke's speech (excluding the highly irrelevant Jamie Dimon monologue detour: we can't wait to hear what the JPM CEO says once it is announced that Glass-Steagall is being reinstated). Below we present Rosie's key takeaways on Bernanke's remarks.
Takeaways:

Emerging Market Small Cap ETFs Distance Themselves From 2011 Lows

Gary Gordon — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 11:39:50 -0400

Even the bulls have been hedging their commentary lately. For example, Blackrock’s Bob Doll frequently points to accommodative monetary policy, strong corporate results and an increasingly self-sustaining economy as reasons for stocks to grind higher. More recently, though, the chief equity strategist acknowledged economic malaise by philosophizing, “A significant acceleration or deceleration in the pace of jobs growth has the potential to change almost anything.”

PIMCO Planning Foreign Currency Strategy ETF

Jim Slagle — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 11:33:40 -0400

Peru ETF In Focus After Crash

Wed, 08 Jun 2011 11:31:14 -0400

Credit Market Optimism

Jim Picerno — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 11:27:41 -0400

Economic growth is slowing, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke noted in a speech yesterday, but he predicted that “growth seems likely to pick up somewhat in the second half.” He blamed the recent stumble, including last month's sharp decline in the pace of job growth, on higher gasoline prices and the crisis in Japan that created trouble for the global manufacturing sector.

Did the Fed Print Money in QE1 and QE2 (Part 2)

Ray Barros — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 11:21:36 -0400

Bob Eisenbeis, Chief Monetary Economist for Cumberland Advisors wrote a follow-up to his first piece. Here is the follow-up.

No New iPhone? Has Apple Lost Its Edge?

Jim Slagle — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 01:00:03 -0400

Working on a Bounce

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 12:48:28 -0400

Price is making a go at it, although really it has been sideways action from the open in spite of the positive internals.

Will Bernanke Help or Hurt the Dollar?

Kathy Lien — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 12:44:09 -0400

May ETF Stats: Month Of Net Outflows

Michael Johnston — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 12:38:12 -0400

A Gold Story

Ray Barros — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 12:18:09 -0400

A long time ago, in a a time and place far, far away…there was a trader called Ray. He had sold his legal practice thinking to find fame and fortune in the markets. But instead, all he found was heartache and losses. For four years all he knew was losses, month after losing month. He couldn’t understand it. He was not dumb; he had had successes in his studies and in his chosen profession, so what was holding him back? If only someone would tell him the secret!

25 ETFs With Attractive Dividend Yields

Michael Johnston — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 12:15:36 -0400

For investors looking to generate current returns from the equity portion of their portfolio, there is no shortage of exchange-traded products offering attractive dividend yields in the current environment. From ETFs linked to dividend-weighted indexes to those that focus on companies with stellar distribution histories to simply sector-specific funds in high yield corners of the market, there are dozens of options to choose from. Below, we profile 25 dividend ETF options [for more ETF ideas, sign up for our free ETF newsletter]:

Charting the Recent Weakness in the Financials ETF (XLF)

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 12:12:29 -0400

Financial stocks have seen relative weakness with companies in other sectors, as evidenced by the lackluster performance and recent support breakdowns in the leading Financial ETF – XLF.

Let’s take a Daily then Weekly view to learn lessons from the structure, and see current reference levels to watch.

First, the Daily Chart (notice the “Arc”):

The More Things Change With Personal Finance Education...

Jim Picerno — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 12:10:22 -0400

Don't Expect Much From Bernanke's 3:45pm Speech

Tyler Durden — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 12:08:43 -0400

A Breadth Measure That Hit an Extreme Monday

Rob Hanna — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 11:55:41 -0400
To examine breadth one measure I use looks at the % rank of the % of up volume on a certain day over the last year. This reading is shown on the charts page every night. It is also part of the Tradestation package available for purchase (or free to subscribers). Monday’s Up Volume % breadth was among the lowest 2% of the last year. With the market also being down for the 4th day in a row, that triggered this study from the 11/17/10 subscriber letter.

QE3: Just a Matter of Time

Tyler Durden — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 12:09:51 -0400

Submitted by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Advisors
QE3 - Just A Matter Of Time

ETF News Update: The S&P 500 Breaks Down

John Nyaradi — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 12:05:36 -0400

What “Backs” Today’s Money?

Steve Saville — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 11:44:09 -0400

2011 Sector ETFs Are Following The 2010 Playbook

Gary Gordon — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 04:58:26 -0400

Until recently, scores of gurus had questioned the sector rotation into non-cyclical sectors. April jobs numbers were “phenomenal” and corporate earnings were sensational. Why should investors sell in May and go away?

Yet telecom, health care and consumer staples (e.g., toothpaste, peanut butter, etc.) were rocketing up the relative strength percentile rankings. And many believed that the April-May trend had been predicated on bargain-hunting… rather than safe harboring.

S&P Technicals Update: Next Support At 1241

Tyler Durden — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 04:44:09 -0400

Now that both the early April swing support of 1283.75, which also happens to be the 150 DMA, have been taken out, the next support in the market is the 200 DMA, which is also the post-Fukushima March lows. A breach of that level would mean the market goes negative for the year. As a reminder: the next 30 minutes are NYSE circuit breaker coffee break time.

ETFs & Sector Rotation: Large Cap, Small Cap, Or International?

Michael Johnston — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 01:12:49 -0400

Oil Slips Below $100 a Barrel

Jim Slagle — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 01:02:02 -0400

FaithShares to Close Doors on Four ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 12:58:25 -0400

How to Profit from the Smart Phone Sector Using ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 12:56:21 -0400

Precious Metals Open Strong

Jim Slagle — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 12:54:13 -0400

Prudent ETF Buying After Panic Selling

Jim Slagle — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 12:51:00 -0400

Three ETFs to Watch This Week

Jim Slagle — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 12:40:27 -0400

Weighing the Week Ahead: An Economic Tipping Point?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 12:27:17 -0400

With more signs of a slowing economy, the economic debate has sharpened. More voices are now claiming that current economic policies have failed. Others maintain that high gas prices and the Japanese earthquake and tsunami have created a temporary economic stumble.

Del Ama: Saving the World, One ETF at aTime

Jim Slagle — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 12:24:32 -0400

ETF News Update: Global Stock Market Stares Into the Abyss

John Nyaradi — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 12:11:32 -0400

After a tough week around the world, global central banks and stock markets find themselves staring into the abyss of uncertainty and risk. At Wall Street Sector Selector, we continue to feel comfortable with our inverse ETF and put option positions and expect lower prices ahead.

On My Wall Street Radar

The Dow Jones Industrials (NYSE: DIA) experienced its longest losing streak since 2004, now down five straight weeks in a row, and we find multiple sell signals across various major indexes and ETF sectors.

Rough Start to New Month

Bob Lang — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 12:01:58 -0400

Is There Room for Fertilizer ETFs?

Jim Slagle — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 12:00:12 -0400

A Forward and Backward Look at the Cycles for 2011

Clif Droke — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 11:58:12 -0400

A Winning Mindset

Ray Barros — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 11:50:05 -0400

Vanguard Poised to Set Up Shop in Canada

Jim Slagle — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 11:46:02 -0400

Citigroup, B of A Pull Down Stocks

Jim Slagle — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 11:42:59 -0400

How to Make More Return on REITS

David Merkel — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 11:41:11 -0400

Before I start this evening, I want to offer corrections to my last piece on REITs. Sorry, data glitch, and the results are a little different but the conclusions are unchanged.

Here is the correct regression for Mortgage REITs:

Tough Week For The Bulls As Stocks Pull Back

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 11:37:26 -0400
Stock markets declined last week as investors locked in profits following a quick move to new highs.
Enthusiasm spurred by news of Bin Laden's death quickly faded, and equities sold off for most of the week.

A small bounce on Friday helped to pare some of the losses, but for the most part the general indices were down between 1.5 and 2%.

In the prior Market Digest, our outlook was extremely optimistic. The NASDAQ Composite had confirmed a decade long high, and a number of other indices had cleared some major resistance levels.

CAD Receives Mild Boost from IVEY PMI

Kathy Lien — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 11:16:05 -0400

It may be a quiet morning in the foreign exchange market but it is a busy week for many countries around the world including the commodity producing countries such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand. The Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand have monetary policy meetings this week where investors will be listening in closely for clues on when the central bank will alter interest rates again. None of the central banks are expected to change interest rates, but their comments could still trigger volatility in currencies.

Three Reasons to Consider Emerging Market ETFs

Gary Gordon — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 11:10:52 -0400

Yesterday, June 2, 2011, 14-year old Sukanya Roy rocked the 1st place trophy at the 2011 Scripps National Spelling Bee. For some reason, I thought of my 14-year old daughter, and wondered whether she could spell, “perescii.”

Then my mind shifted to something else entirely. Specifically, I wondered how many Americans could spell the word, “ethnocentrism.“ It is essentially spelled like it sounds. What’s more, it aptly describes the investing tendencies of many Americans.

The Dominant Intraday Arc Trendlines to Watch This Week in Gold

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 11:01:55 -0400

Intraday Gold prices are forming a classic “Arc Trendline” pattern that should be interesting to follow in the week ahead – depending on whether this structure continues gently or if price breaks firmly through one of the arc trendlines in place.

Let’s take a look at the pattern and note the levels we should be watching:

US Economic "Surprise" Factor Plunges By Most Since 2009

Tyler Durden — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 10:54:07 -0400

The Stock Market is Still Thinking Positively

Jim Picerno — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 10:51:15 -0400

Re-Examining A Spiking CBI & A Moderate VXO

Rob Hanna — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 10:48:34 -0400

John Paulson Gets Cracked for $500 Loss in One Day

Tyler Durden — Fri, 03 Jun 2011 12:15:53 -0400

Intraday Market Structure After the Jobs Fiasco

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 03 Jun 2011 12:03:23 -0400

Market participants can't say the "worse than expected" Non-Farm Payrolls (Jobs) Report was a complete surprise, given that the tide of economic news recently turned sharply negative (or at least has been hitting consistently under expectations).
With Friday's "Jobs Report" also worse than expected, let's take a quick pre-market look at the current intraday intermarket structure to see what to watch as the session progresses.

A Rare Set-up that Has Been Followed by BIG 2-Week Gains

Rob Hanna — Fri, 03 Jun 2011 11:30:21 -0400

Positive seasonality has been run over the past 2 days by strong selling. To see such a weak start to a month is rare. There have only been 5 other times since its inception where the SPY lost over 2% on the 1st day of the month and then closed lower again on the 2nd day of the month. That's a very low sample size but over the next couple of weeks returns have been outstanding. Below I have listed all 5 instances.

Econ Data vs. Expectations and Stock Prices

Bill Luby — Thu, 02 Jun 2011 10:20:55 -0400
For the last year I have been posting charts of the trends in various economic data reports versus consensus expectations. The last time around, in Continued Lackluster Data vs. Expectations, I commented that the April data indicated "manufacturing and employment are no longer providing positive surprises relative to expectations, while data related to the consumer reflect consumer activity that is plodding at best."

Banks Lose Marbles as Economy Dwindles

Dock David Treece — Thu, 02 Jun 2011 09:37:01 -0400

Frontrunning: June 2

Tyler Durden — Thu, 02 Jun 2011 08:36:15 -0400

Shocking Chart: Consumer Confidence at Lowest Point in 25 Years

Tyler Durden — Thu, 02 Jun 2011 08:21:40 -0400

One chart stands out in today's Breakfast with Rosie: the comparison of this week's surprisingly weak Consumer Confidence number with comparable prints taken at financial crises and tragedies of the past such as the October 1987 markets crash, Desert Storm, LTCM, the dot com collapse, September 11, Katrina, and Lehman.
Surprise: Tuesday's was the lowest.

Wipeout!

John Nyaradi — Thu, 02 Jun 2011 01:23:02 -0400
U.S. stock markets wiped out today on massively bad economic news.
The Dow Jones Industrials (NYSE: DIA) declined 279 points or -2.2%. This was the worst first trading day of June since 1934. (See Stock Traders Almanac for more fascinating details about today's record setting action.)
The NASDAQ (QQQ) dropped -66 points or -2.33%
The S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) shed -30.65 points or -2.28%

The Dow's Plunge is a Cry for Help-- is Anyone Listening?

Larry Kudlow — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 09:00:18 -0400

With a flamboyant downgrade of the outlook for economic growth, jobs, and profits, Wednesday's 280 point Dow plunge to launch the so-called June stock swoon is a warning shot across the bow.
The Dow tanked alongside a batch of dismal economic data. The ISM manufacturing index, ADP employment, Case-Shiller home prices, and consumer confidence are all pointing to 2 percent growth or less, rather than the kind of 5 percent growth we ought to be getting coming out of a deep recession.

Mixed Messages Keep Markets in State of Confusion

Bob Lang — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 01:09:36 -0400

XIV Marks 6-Month Anniversary

Bill Luby — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 12:28:49 -0400

Monday marked six months since the launch of the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (XIV).

Careful-- the Market's Overbought

Rob Hanna — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 12:08:38 -0400

Careful-- the Market's Overbought

Rob Hanna — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 12:08:38 -0400

Beware the Coming 6-Year Cycle Peak

Clif Droke — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 11:58:30 -0400

Examples of Buying Stocks at Different Entry Points

David Grandey — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 11:49:11 -0400

Say it with us! Pullbacks Off Highs and grand slams to the 50-day average are the only two patterns you'll ever have to know. Be it in uptrending markets or even in markets where some would say "Market In Correction" Let's review with some charts of our current holdings

The Technical Picture as We Roll into June

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 11:30:15 -0400

What message is the market sending as we transition into June 2011?
More importantly, what levels are the current reference boundaries that - when broken - will likely trigger an impulse breakout swing?
Glad you asked! Let's take a look at the "Big Three" US Stock Market Indexes and review these levels.
First, the S&P 500:

Frontrunning, June 1

Tyler Durden — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 11:19:11 -0400

Goldman Slashes Payroll Estimate, Street's Heroin Addicts Demand QE3

Tyler Durden — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 11:08:56 -0400

Wednesday's Reversal Bar Suggesting An Upside Edge

Rob Hanna — Fri, 27 May 2011 09:03:49 -0400
On Wednesday SPY made a 20-day low before reversing to close higher. During long-term uptrends these kind of reversals have typically shown an upside edge. Below is a study from last night’s subscriber letter that demonstrates this.

GLD / TLT Postscript

Bob Barnes — Fri, 27 May 2011 09:02:27 -0400

Just wanted to call attention to the position of the equity curve on the previous pair study. It is below the RSquared line so caution is warranted. I’m finding Long GDX more compelling than TLT Short as we approach the long weekend, even though the end of month, typically bullish, is only days away. Both Project Z and the Double 3s fired a TLT Short 90 minutes in this morning. A lot of cross currents in the markets this morning so I’m waiting for some confirmation before initiating any new trade (like a surge in the NYAD).

Related posts:

New Jobless Claims Rise By 10,000 Last Week

Jim Picerno — Fri, 27 May 2011 08:49:51 -0400

Today’s update on initial jobless claims suggests that the recovery is at risk of stalling. Indeed, the April surge in new filings for unemployment benefits warned as much. Although the surge has moderated this month, the data appears stuck in a range that implies weak economic growth at best.

Frontrunning: May 27th

Tyler Durden — Fri, 27 May 2011 08:48:51 -0400

Frontrunning: May 26th

Tyler Durden — Thu, 26 May 2011 08:32:22 -0400

Checkup on Most Overextended Stocks from 200d SMA

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 26 May 2011 08:24:54 -0400

It’s time for another update on the “Stocks Most Over/Under-Extended from their 200 day SMA” list!

It’s surprising how much has NOT changed since the last update, but that is part of the benefit of this occasional scan.

The scan is designed to find the strongest and weakest stocks in terms of their distance – above or below – the 200 day simple moving average reference price.

Let’s start with those “Bullish” Stocks that are most Over-Extended from the 200d SMA:

Looking for Debt

Michael Pettis — Thu, 26 May 2011 08:23:31 -0400

New Durable Goods Orders Tumble In April

Jim Picerno — Thu, 26 May 2011 08:18:17 -0400

Lazy Man RM – continued

Bob Barnes — Thu, 26 May 2011 08:17:33 -0400

Economy: Not Quite in “Tailspin,” But…

Dock David Treece — Wed, 25 May 2011 01:45:57 -0400

Frontrunning: May 25th

Tyler Durden — Wed, 25 May 2011 09:51:30 -0400

Market Could Bounce, Tuesday Not Providing Its Usual Help

Rob Hanna — Wed, 25 May 2011 07:55:46 -0400
Tuesdays are renowned for short-term trend reversals. I discussed this in the 1/13/09 Blog and I’ve shown it a number of times since using different filters.

So Monday afternoon I took a look at 2-day drops above the 200ma on a Monday. Results were choppy and unremarkable. I then added one more filter in that the SPY had to close at a 5-day low. I was surprised by the results.

Is The Core Inflation Concept Rotten?

Jim Picerno — Wed, 25 May 2011 07:54:24 -0400

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard recently attacked the concept of core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. The "core is rotten," he argued in a speech last week. "One popular argument for focusing on core inflation is that core inflation is a good predictor of future headline inflation," he said. "I think this is wrongheaded, as well as wrong."

Lazy Man RM (Risk Mitigation) Model

Bob Barnes — Wed, 25 May 2011 07:51:24 -0400

New eBook Short: Iron Condor Spread Strategies

Jared Woodard — Wed, 25 May 2011 07:50:07 -0400

Triangulating Bull Fund FAS Challenges Critical Support

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 24 May 2011 08:29:20 -0400

With the broad indexes challenging – and in some cases breaking – initial ‘barrier’ support levels, the financial sector is already breaking down into fresh 2011 lows.

We see a similar picture in the triple-leveraged financial bull fund FAS – a popular vehicle for aggressive traders.

What’s the current pattern and critical level to watch in FAS? Let’s take a look.

Frontrunning: May 24th

Tyler Durden — Tue, 24 May 2011 08:24:33 -0400

USD: Benefitting from Increased Uncertainty

Kathy Lien — Tue, 24 May 2011 08:23:02 -0400

US and EZ Concerns Cap EUR/USD Moves

Kathy Lien — Mon, 23 May 2011 08:35:58 -0400

Frontrunning: May 23rd

Tyler Durden — Mon, 23 May 2011 08:31:32 -0400

A Long-Term Look At POMO & the Stock Market

Rob Hanna — Mon, 23 May 2011 08:30:40 -0400

Weighing the Week Ahead: Keep Turmoil in Perspective

Jeff Miller — Mon, 23 May 2011 08:22:02 -0400

Will the next month bring an important market inflection point?

Many seem to think so, raising a good question: When many market participants expect something, does that make it more or less likely to happen?

Nearly everyone is anticipating a market correction. Even those with a bullish viewpoint have one foot out the door.

Charting the Big Breakouts in Defensive ETFs

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 23 May 2011 08:20:48 -0400

I wanted to show a follow-up to my prior post “Clear Bearish Signals Developing from the Sector Rotation Model,” and focus on the breakouts in the “Big Three” Defensive Sector ETFs: Staples, Health Care, and Utilities.

Let’s take a quick look at the similarities – and strong recent breakout – in these defensive funds.

First, Consumer Staples – XLP:

Tactical ETF Review: 5.23.2011

Jim Picerno — Mon, 23 May 2011 08:19:04 -0400

A Blended Rotation Model

Bob Barnes — Mon, 23 May 2011 08:12:35 -0400

Will the IMF Now Change, or Will it be Bailout Nation Business As Usual?

Larry Kudlow — Fri, 20 May 2011 03:08:23 -0400
As the IMF gets ready to choose a successor to Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who resigned following his arrest on charges that he sexually assaulted and raped a hotel housekeeper, it would be a good thing to step back for a moment and ask: What should the IMF do?
More specifically, can the IMF possibly morph itself into a worldwide force for economic growth instead of Bailout Nation?

Frontrunning: May 20th

Tyler Durden — Fri, 20 May 2011 08:20:36 -0400

Do High Gasoline Prices Threaten Consumer Spending?

Jim Picerno — Fri, 20 May 2011 08:18:45 -0400

The rebound in retail sales is at the top of the list for thinking that the economy will weather any challenges to growth in the months ahead. Consumer spending, after all, accounts for roughly 70% of GDP, as we’ve so often been told. That implies that a robust rate of growth in retail sales is just what the doctor ordered to chase away the business cycle blues. The good news is that the headline number for retail sales certainly looks encouraging these days. But if we strip out sales at gasoline stations, the case for optimism suffers a bit.

TLT Situation – Part 1

Bob Barnes — Fri, 20 May 2011 08:16:17 -0400

The Big Fade On The REIT Yield Premium

Jim Picerno — Thu, 19 May 2011 08:21:53 -0400

It’s been more than two years since the markets hit bottom after the financial crisis of late 2008/early 2009. What a long strange trip it’s been. It may get stranger still. But in the interest of finding some context, it’s useful to compare returns since the trough. Let’s arbitrarily call the end of February 2009 as the bottom. How have markets fared since?

Checkup on Bullishly Diverging Market Internals

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 19 May 2011 08:19:14 -0400

What are the “Big Three” Market Internals saying about the current structure in the S&P 500?
Let’s take a look:

A Market Rewind Rotation Model

Bob Barnes — Thu, 19 May 2011 08:18:15 -0400

Surprise! It’s a Correction

Dock David Treece — Wed, 18 May 2011 03:53:08 -0400

Debt Limit Debate is Scary, but Holds Some Positive Potential for Stocks

Larry Kudlow — Wed, 18 May 2011 11:49:02 -0400
This debt ceiling deal is going to be a tough slog.
But I want to quote House Republican Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who told me on "The Call" this morning "there's an air of willingness" in the debt talks with Vice President Biden.
And as you know from my interview on Monday with House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, she is shifting to the center and told me that everything should be on the table to reduce the federal deficit. Those are her words and she said so several times.

The Difference ADX Makes In Examining Breakdown Reversals

Rob Hanna — Wed, 18 May 2011 09:22:30 -0400

In the past I’ve discussed how breaks from consolidations are often much less reliable when looking for a reversal than if you hit a new high or low during a trending market. This is because the breakout will often create new excitement in the direction it occurs. Some of that is stops being blown and some of that is from breakout players looking to take advantage of a newly emerging trend.

Debunking the Myth: The QE2 Rally

Jeff Miller — Wed, 18 May 2011 09:20:50 -0400

The single biggest market question is this one:
What happens at the end of QE II?
I have explained this on several occasions and promised more detail. After listening to countless talking heads talk about the QE II rally, we need some clarity.
Background
There are two views of the world:

Frontrunning: May 18th

Tyler Durden — Wed, 18 May 2011 09:19:44 -0400

Frontrunning: May 17th

Tyler Durden — Tue, 17 May 2011 08:29:19 -0400

Slim Index Pickings In 401(k) Plans

Jim Picerno — Tue, 17 May 2011 08:28:31 -0400

Ron Lieber argues that 401(k) plans should offer index funds. "This shouldn’t be a controversial statement," he writes in a recent New York Times article. "Yet it passes for one in Washington, where regulators and legislators are still mired in a never-ending debate over whether stockbrokers, certain insurance salespeople and others ought to meet that standard, known in legal circles as a fiduciary duty."

Why Hitting Debt Ceiling Hasn't Been a Big Deal

Kathy Lien — Tue, 17 May 2011 08:27:47 -0400

Rebalancing Through Wage Increases

Michael Pettis — Mon, 16 May 2011 08:40:18 -0400

Is China currently rebalancing? The currency has been appreciating, the PBoC has hiked interest rates four times, and wages have been surging. Because of all of this I am often asked if China has finally begun the long-waited rebalancing process and whether we have yet seen an improvement in the underlying economy caused by a rising consumption share.

Strategic Briefing: Debt Ceiling

Jim Picerno — Mon, 16 May 2011 08:36:13 -0400

Debt ceiling drama starts today
CNNMoney | May 16

How NYSE Closing TICK Can be Used as a Valuable Indicator

Rob Hanna — Mon, 16 May 2011 08:32:34 -0400

Weighing the Week Ahead: Any Bottom in Housing?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 16 May 2011 08:29:01 -0400

With earnings season drawing to a close, attention has returned to the economic data point of the moment and to technical factors.

Many technical analysts look no further than the commodity trade. Eddy Elfenbein has a great perspective on this apparent relationship:

Investors' Guide to the Debt Ceiling Debate

Jeff Miller — Fri, 13 May 2011 08:13:50 -0400

As a professional analyst of public policy issues, the forecasting of political events is a favorite topic. My record has been good.

Clear Bearish Signals Developing from Sector Rotation Model

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 13 May 2011 08:12:16 -0400

What does the Sector Rotation Model reveal about the current market situation?

Money appears to be flowing into Defensive Sectors and in part away from Offensive Sectors, which is a clear “Caution” or warning sign for the market at the moment.

Let’s take a look at Sector Performance Year-to-Date:

Jobless Claims Remain Elevated Despite Last Week's Sharp Decline

Jim Picerno — Fri, 13 May 2011 08:10:52 -0400

Initial jobless claims dropped sharply last week, the Labor Department reports, but we’re still not out of the woods. The recent jump in new filings for jobless benefits went into reverse, but no one can ignore the still-elevated levels for this series. And until we see more reports like this morning's, there's going to be some awkward questions.

SMH with a Bullet

Bob Barnes — Fri, 13 May 2011 08:06:15 -0400

Baffled by Demand Destruction?

Jeff Miller — Thu, 12 May 2011 08:45:14 -0400

The latest pundit folly is the two-way interpretation of commodity price moves.

When prices were spiking, it was a signal of impending doom: spiraling inflation and eventual stagflation. It showed that Ben Bernanke was clueless and that it would all end badly.

With prices plumeting, it shows that we have "demand destruction," a signal of impending doom. It shows that Ben Bernanke has been clueless, and it will all end badly.

No wonder the average investor is confused!

Breakout and Retracement Lessons from High Flying WYNN

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 12 May 2011 08:44:04 -0400

Many stock traders are aware of the meteoric rise in Wynn Resorts (WYNN), but new traders often report having difficulty finding that perfect entry into such a popular, strongly uptrending stock.

Let’s take a step back and learn a few tips on trading simple breakout and retracement trades into a powerfully trending stock.

Let’s start with the backdrop of the Monthly Chart:

Frontrunning: May 12th

Tyler Durden — Thu, 12 May 2011 08:42:06 -0400

Inflation Expectations Retreat

Jim Picerno — Thu, 12 May 2011 08:41:02 -0400

SPX Pattern Offering Compelling Bullish Evidence

Rob Hanna — Thu, 12 May 2011 08:34:44 -0400
Last night I decided to explore the pattern the SPX has carved out over the last several days. What I noted was that after making a new high it then pulled back for 4 days in a row. That 4 day drop has now been followed by a 3-day rally. At this point the SPX has not managed to overcome the recent highs. So I plugged those observations into a study and found some very compelling results.

Lazy Man Favors SMH

Bob Barnes — Thu, 12 May 2011 08:31:32 -0400

ECB Stark Supports Euro to Keep Inflation Tame

Greg Michalowski — Wed, 11 May 2011 08:22:01 -0400

ECB Stark is on the newswires saying that the ECB has to withdraw monetary stimulation to control inflation.

He also says inflation to average above 2.5% in 2011 and that the ECB sets monetary policy for EURO as a whole.

Average Is Boring (And Competitive)

Jim Picerno — Wed, 11 May 2011 08:15:50 -0400

Stock Market Structure and Support Level Update

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 10 May 2011 08:49:32 -0400

As we start the new week, let’s focus on two main ideas in the US Equity Markets – Trend Structure and Current Reference Support Levels.

Let’s start with the S&P 500:

Before we start with the chart, let’s define “Market Structure.”

TLT Nears Excursion Limit

Bob Barnes — Tue, 10 May 2011 08:33:50 -0400

Getting the Most from Economic Bloggers

Jeff Miller — Tue, 10 May 2011 08:32:51 -0400

In the Internet age we are not troubled by a lack of information, but by too much. Successful decision making has become a matter of figuring out whom to trust and on what topics.

My original mission statement at 'A Dash' was to take an eclectic approach -- finding the best sources, information, and methods. It has been a common theme for me.

Frontrunning: May 10th

Tyler Durden — Tue, 10 May 2011 08:31:46 -0400

Tough Week For Bulls As Stocks Pull Back

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 09 May 2011 08:33:48 -0400
Stock markets declined last week as investors locked in profits following a quick move to new highs.
Enthusiasm spurred by news of Bin Laden's death quickly faded, and equities sold off for most of the week.

A small bounce on Friday helped to pare some of the losses, but for the most part the general indices were down between 1.5 and 2%.

In the prior Market Digest, our outlook was extremely optimistic. The NASDAQ Composite had confirmed a decade long high, and a number of other indices had cleared some major resistance levels.

Back To The Rock & The Hard Place?

Jim Picerno — Mon, 09 May 2011 08:25:02 -0400

The stock market has been famously described as a discounting machine. The machine isn't flawless and so there's always a risk that the forecast du jour is misleading. But it's been right enough of the time to inspire monitoring Mr. Market's real-time outlook, if only as one of several tools for looking ahead. The first challenge is filtering out the noise in the short term. We can start by reviewing rolling 12-month percentage changes in equities and comparing that with the equivalent for the economic trend.

Frontrunning: May 9th

Tyler Durden — Mon, 09 May 2011 08:21:33 -0400

Weighing the Week Ahead: Another Soft Patch?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 09 May 2011 08:16:50 -0400

When stocks have had a big rally, it can lead to nervous longs. How much of the ownership is in "weak hands" or with short-term traders, people ready to sell at the first sign of bad news?

So far, any selling has been limited -- evidence of waiting buyers. Will this change?

Large Gaps Up On 1st Friday of the Month

Rob Hanna — Mon, 09 May 2011 08:13:38 -0400
The employment report nornally comes out on the 1st Friday of the month. Today's report is helping to trigger a large gap up in the SPY. I looked back at other times since 2003 where the SPY gapped up more than 1% on the first Friday of the month.

SLV : XLF Pair Delight

Bob Barnes — Mon, 09 May 2011 08:12:01 -0400

Unusual Action on 3-day Pullback

Rob Hanna — Fri, 06 May 2011 09:00:56 -0400

Divergences and Three Push Pattern Reversal in Crude Oil

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 06 May 2011 08:59:45 -0400

Traders are still adjusting to the significant sell-offs this week in the commodity markets, including Crude Oil which broke sharply today.

Let’s see the daily chart pattern leading to the sell-off and see a great reference example of the “Three Push” reversal pattern with “Triple Swing” Negative Divergences.

Crude Oil Futures (@CL) Daily:

What Are Commodity Prices Telling Us Now?

Jim Picerno — Fri, 06 May 2011 08:56:54 -0400

Yesterday's selling wave that slashed commodities prices is a reminder that this is a volatile asset class and so its value is limited as an input for setting monetary policy. Once again, we have a real-world lesson in why central banks focus on core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices. It's hardly reasonable to ignore commodities in monitoring future inflation expectations, but it's easy to go overboard with reading too much into raw materials prices.

SMH Update

Bob Barnes — Fri, 06 May 2011 08:51:55 -0400

Frontrunning: May 6th

Tyler Durden — Fri, 06 May 2011 08:50:33 -0400

The Importance of the 40 Level for SLV

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 05 May 2011 08:39:00 -0400

No doubt you’ve seen the sharp decline (to be fair, after a stellar rally) in Silver (SLV), but right now, traders are anxiously watching the critical defining level at $41 in Silver Futures and $40 in SLV.

Why?

Let’s take a look, starting with Silver Futures (@SI):

April Private Payrolls Rise At Slowest Pace In Months

Jim Picerno — Thu, 05 May 2011 08:36:58 -0400

It’s still growing, but job creation slowed last month, according to today’s release of the ADP Employment Report. Nonfarm private jobs rose by 179,000 in April on a seasonally adjusted basis--down from March's gain of 207,000. That’s strong enough to offer convincing evidence that the labor market is still expanding with enough forward momentum to keep the party going in the months ahead. But it’s also true that last month’s gain was the smallest since last November’s tepid 122,000 rise.

Frontrunning: May 5th

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 May 2011 08:29:04 -0400

April Employment Report Preview

Jeff Miller — Thu, 05 May 2011 08:26:46 -0400

Friday's employment situation report once again is the focus of the financial markets. With the perception that the economy has hit another "soft patch" the report assumes special significance.

Corporate earnings have been excellent, but there is continuing skepticism about economic growth. Since everyone agrees about the importance of jobs, the monthly employment situation report looms large.

SMH Leads

Bob Barnes — Thu, 05 May 2011 08:26:04 -0400

Global X Rolls Out Fishing ETF

Jim Slagle — Wed, 04 May 2011 03:58:54 -0400

Adjusting to the Flow

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 04 May 2011 03:02:55 -0400

I’ve been thinking about this lately, and enjoyed seeing a favorite trader/blogger write on the subject today. Peter Brandt shared a fantastic post on the differing mindset for writing vs. trading, and I thought I’d add my 2 cents. My favorite line was repeated a few times as follows:

“A position is not an opinion and an opinion is not a position.”

As Yen Surge Continues, Time For Another G-7 Intervention?

Tyler Durden — Wed, 04 May 2011 02:54:53 -0400

Three ETF's To Play Dollar Weakness

Jim Slagle — Wed, 04 May 2011 02:49:21 -0400

Leveraged Silver ETF Plunges Nearly 40% from Peak

Jim Slagle — Wed, 04 May 2011 02:44:53 -0400

Bernanke: Gypsy or Genius?

Dock David Treece — Wed, 04 May 2011 12:22:10 -0400

Look at May 3rd Divergent Market Internals

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 04 May 2011 09:00:48 -0400

What are market internals – namely Breadth and VOLD – revealing about the current state of the market rally?

Let’s take a look, starting with the hourly chart:

How to Choose a Great Stock

Jeff Miller — Wed, 04 May 2011 08:56:32 -0400

What if you could find a stock that was exciting for both value and growth investors? Can there be such a company?

A value investor would want to find a sound balance sheet, a strong return on invested equity, and sound prospects for the future.

The growth investor would pay attention to earnings growth, the P/E multiple, and future growth prospects.

A Company to Consider

SPX Pullback History, 2009-2011

Bill Luby — Wed, 04 May 2011 08:50:43 -0400

Since there has been only one significant pullback in stocks so far in 2011, I am taking the mild selling from the last two days as an excuse to update a table of pullbacks that I have been updating periodically since stocks bottomed back in March 2009.

The table captures some of the details of the fifteen significant (in magnitude and/or duration) pullbacks in the SPX during the last 26 months, with the current pullback – so far at only 1.5% from peak to trough – highlighted in yellow.

TLT at Turn?

Bob Barnes — Wed, 04 May 2011 08:42:00 -0400

Join Me This Afternoon for Live Webinar

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 03 May 2011 08:43:43 -0400

I’m excited to announce that I will be presenting a free, live Webinar sponsored by TradeStation as part of their “Live on the Web” educational series that is open to all traders, and I wanted to invite you to attend.
The webinar is entitled:
“Trade Execution: Aggressive vs Conservative Tactics and the Risk-Reward Relationship”

Time for the US to Disengage the World from the Dollar?

Michael Pettis — Tue, 03 May 2011 08:38:53 -0400

The March Rebound

Jim Picerno — Tue, 03 May 2011 08:30:42 -0400

All the major economic reports for March are in and it’s clear that the setback in February was reversed, and then some.

Our equally weighted index of 18 U.S. economic indicators rose 1.1% in March, more than reversing February’s 0.8% drop. That pushes our composite indicator of U.S. economic activity to a new post-recession high, as the chart below shows.

Frontrunning: May 3rd

Tyler Durden — Tue, 03 May 2011 08:27:28 -0400

XLB Still Lazy Man Focus

Bob Barnes — Tue, 03 May 2011 08:26:39 -0400

When Months Finish Strong

Rob Hanna — Mon, 02 May 2011 02:48:02 -0400
Bullish early-month seasonal tendencies have been well documented both here and elsewhere. But what happens if we close the month at a high? Does that sap some of the typical early-month strength? Or is the market more likely to continue higher? Below I show all instances since 1995 where the SPY finished a month with the highest closing price of that month.

Gold vs. Silver and Other Commodities

Steve Saville — Mon, 02 May 2011 02:46:23 -0400

Your Guide To The Nasdaq-100 Rebalance

Jim Slagle — Mon, 02 May 2011 02:43:03 -0400

Apple Falls but Nasdaq ETF Bite is Smaller

Jim Slagle — Mon, 02 May 2011 02:41:46 -0400

Did the Silver Bubble Just Pop???

John Nyaradi — Mon, 02 May 2011 02:40:07 -0400
Silver was all the rage in April as “white gold” has soared and worked its way into a parabolic frenzy, but now May seems to have brought a different tone to this overheated market.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

Another Sign QE2 is Undermining the Economic Recovery

Clif Droke — Mon, 02 May 2011 02:13:43 -0400

Big Win For Bulls as NASDAQ Hits Major New High

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 02 May 2011 08:59:29 -0400
Bulls win big, markets breakout, and the NASDAQ Composite confirms a decade long high.
The complete scorecard for last week's action.

And for the month of April, the S&P 500 finished near its high, up about 2.9%.

Now that we have a confirmed breakout through the mid-February peak, we can confidently declare the resumption of the prior intermediate-term uptrend.

Frontrunning: May 2nd

Tyler Durden — Mon, 02 May 2011 08:51:48 -0400

The Bulls of April

Jim Picerno — Mon, 02 May 2011 08:50:54 -0400

April was a foolproof month for investing. All the major asset classes posted handsome gains last month, leaving no room for excuses for active strategies that stumbled.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for Good News on Jobs?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 02 May 2011 08:50:08 -0400

When the market is climbing the "wall of worry" the problems often change from week to week. Most investors do not grasp this concept, thinking that the wall of worry is something really bad. In fact, markets thrive when there is a long list of well-publicized problems. (Some readers have kindly written that this article really helped them to appreciate the concept).

Deconstructing the SMH:SLV Pair

Bob Barnes — Mon, 02 May 2011 08:37:35 -0400

Help for the Dollar Next Week?

Kathy Lien — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 06:32:22 -0400

Commodities Wrap: Month of Volatility

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 04:53:28 -0400

S&P 500 Angular Momentum and Daily Rallies

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 02:40:08 -0400

What does the concept of angular momentum say about the current strong rallies on the daily chart of the S&P 500?
Let's take a look at both the angle of momentum and price distance traveled since the 2010 bottom:
Click for full-size post.

Hougan On CNBC: Silver Looks Bubbly

Jim Slagle — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 02:32:19 -0400

Microsoft, PC Woes Slap Tech ETFs

Jim Slagle — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 01:23:04 -0400

More Than One Outcome from a Divergence

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 01:14:13 -0400

I've mentioned this week how wide the performance gap has been between what I call Leaders vs. the S&P 500. In most cases, this results in a price or time correction to bring these highly correlated groups back into balance. There is a major lesson to be learned, however, when the split persists.
Divergences can basically have the following outcomes:

ETF Providers Feel Pinch From Fee Wars

Jim Slagle — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 01:11:13 -0400

Thoughts on the Gold Explorer ETF (GLDX)

Scott Wright — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 01:02:11 -0400

WisdomTree Posts First Profit In Q1

Jim Slagle — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 12:53:05 -0400

Call Options Activity On Silver ETF Points to Further Upside

Jim Slagle — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 12:49:24 -0400

New Highs Scored by Gold Aren't Universal

Brad Zigler — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 12:36:56 -0400

For dollar-denominated assets this week:

Thursday's London morning gold fix was 1.7 percent higher at $1,531 after averaging $1,512; COMEX spot last settled at $1,531 for a 2.2 percent gain; New York prices also averaged $1,512 for the week; average daily COMEX gold volume fell 8.1 percent to 153,070 contracts, while open interest inched down 136 contracts to 537,810.

Volume Breadth Favors Non-Cyclical "Defensive" Sector ETFs

Michael Johnston — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 12:31:53 -0400

OB Be Damned!

Jeff Pietsch — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 12:22:58 -0400

The melt-up trend line remains unchallenged with next intraday resistance at roughly SPY $136.50. Resistance, what's that?

The Low VIX:VXV Ratio with the SPX at a New High

Rob Hanna — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 12:21:38 -0400

Another Day, Another All Time High: Gold At $1,544.9

Tyler Durden — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 12:20:26 -0400

Hopefully at this point nobody is surprised why at this rate gold will pass $1,600 within a month, silver may be $100 by the end of the year, and the dollar will be worthless, in order, to paraphrase Bernanke, reincarnate it in a fresh start version of itself, following the refinancing of all US private and public debt at 0% interest. For everyone still confused, and the naysayers, we urge you to read the following - link.
Gold:

UBS Debuts BDC ETN (BDCS)

Michael Johnston — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 12:16:18 -0400

UBS has made another addition to its fast-growing ETN lineup, rolling out a product linked to an index consisting of U.S.-listed business development companies ("BDCs"). Th E-Tracks Linked to the Wells Fargo Business Development Company Index (BDCS) is an exchange-traded note due in April 2041. The underlying index currently consists of about 26 BDCs, including Ares Capital Corp., American Capital Ltd., and Apollo Investment Corp.

US Data: Not Enough to Get Hearts Beating at the Fed

Kathy Lien — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 12:12:02 -0400

Frontrunning: April 29th

Tyler Durden — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 08:46:16 -0400

Strategic Briefing: US Q1 GDP

Jim Picerno — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 08:45:13 -0400

Economic growth slows sharply; new jobless claims rise
LA Times | Apr 29

US Dollar Hits 3-Year Low

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 08:42:10 -0400

USDJPY: The USDJPY reached new week lows today with the 80.96 level on being the next target support on the daily chart below. The pair is down to the non-trending area after the concerted central bank intervention. The low for that consolidation was 80.69, while the high was at 81.30.

Reader Q&A: Straddles and Implied Volatility

Bill Luby — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 08:40:14 -0400

A New Viewpoint on Bernanke

Jeff Miller — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 08:39:09 -0400

With so much written about Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, you might doubt that there is anything fresh to say. Wrong!

Not only is there a new way to think about Bernanke, it will probably help your investment results.

One of the most costly mistakes that traders or investors could make over the last two years is the "Bernanke Blunder." This mistake includes everyone who has left money on the table -- or even worse, lost through shorting the market -- because of their opinions about the Fed Chair.

SMH Quick Step Exit

Bob Barnes — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 08:30:42 -0400

USD: Early Signs of a Bottom?

Kathy Lien — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 06:50:25 -0400

Quick Charting the Russell and NASDAQ at New Highs

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 05:56:22 -0400

If you're focusing all of your attention on either the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Index, there's a major headline you might be missing:

The Russell 2000 Broke to New Lifetime Highs while the NASDAQ Index Broke to New Recovery Highs.

The Russell 2000 is comprised mostly of Small-Cap Companies while the NASDAQ is mostly comprised of technology-related companies.

Here - let's start with the Monthly simple view of the Russell 2000:

Marginal New High

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 04:33:30 -0400

Internals are flattish, but impressive considering opening news flow.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Meet Barrick Copper Corp.

Brad Zigler — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 04:31:30 -0400

Ah, earnings season! When an investor's fancy turns to thoughts of free cash flow and book value.
In honor of the season, we looked at the top and the bottom of the gold miners food chain-those that are in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF portfolio (NYSE Arca: GDX), at least-in recent columns.
One of GDX's middling issues just released its first-quarter results. Well, maybe it's not fair to call Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) middling. After all, at 14.3 percent, it's the weightiest issue in the GDX portfolio.

A New Regional Emerging Markets ETF

Jim Slagle — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 12:54:46 -0400

Packaged Managed Futures Aren't (Mostly)

Brad Zigler — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 12:43:59 -0400

While commodity prices soar, some investors-remembering similar run-ups in 2008-grow more and more uncomfortable about the prospect of another blowoff top.
Three years ago, speculation-bolstered by the proliferation of exchange-traded commodity trusts-helped to send prices into the stratosphere, before demand destruction and a credit market collapse teamed up to snap the rally's back. Then, paradoxically, while commodity prices swooned in the latter half of 2008, one asset class stood out for its gains: managed futures.

Van Eck Plans Specialty Finance ETF

Jim Slagle — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 12:39:43 -0400

Fund Spy Is PIMCO Total Return ETF the Crossing of a Rubicon?

Jim Slagle — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 12:38:16 -0400

Silver Pushes Aside S&P 500 in ETF Trading Volume

Jim Slagle — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 12:36:39 -0400

Fresh Reminders that the Economic Recovery Continues to Struggle

Jim Picerno — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 12:23:13 -0400

Is the labor market headed for a fresh round of trouble? Today's weekly jobless claims report provides some new motivation for going over to the dark side on this question. The usual caveat applies, of course: divining the future from any one number in this volatile series can be misleading. Unfortunately, the jump in new filings for unemployment benefits is no longer an isolated data point.

Weaker US Data Keeps Pressure on USD

Kathy Lien — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 12:22:35 -0400

Silver: Is Volatility a Better Play than Direction?

Bill Luby — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 09:37:01 -0400

It seems as if everyone in the world has an opinion about silver. Is it a bubble? Has it topped? Is it just consolidating before it goes to triple digits?

I have been trading silver directionally with a trend-following approach for many months, but recently exited all my long positions when I came to the decision that a top was imminent.

Still, silver looks way too attractive for me to sit on the sidelines, so now I am trading silver volatility instead of a directional play. The chart below from Livevol.com neatly illustrates my rationale.

UUP Dollar ETF Poised to Move

Bob Barnes — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 09:35:10 -0400

Damned If You Speak, Damned If You Don't

Jim Picerno — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 09:33:51 -0400

Ben Bernanke's performance at the Federal Reserve's historic first-ever press conference succeeded in pleasing no one while further stoking criticism from all sides. Perhaps that was inevitable. There was almost zero chance that one more prepared speech, or even taking questions from the press like a run-of-the-mill politician, would change deeply entrenched views about what the Fed could or couldn't do. But the former Princeton professor gave it a shot.

Frontrunning: April 28th

Tyler Durden — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 09:32:56 -0400

"A Gift to My Children" by Jim Rogers

John Nyaradi — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 06:51:29 -0400

Legendary investor and best selling author, Jim Rogers, discusses his book, "A Gift To My Children: A Father's Lessons For Life And Investing," and shares his views about the economy and investing.

Gold Slams Bernanke

Larry Kudlow — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 05:41:50 -0400

Fed head Ben Bernanke, at his first-ever news conference on Wednesday, slammed the door shut on any new QE3 pump-priming. The $600 billion QE2 program to purchase bonds will end on target at the end of June, and that will be that. Mr. Bernanke also suggested that the Fed's "extended period" for the near-zero federal funds target rate could end in a couple of meetings. Perhaps these announcements suggest a bit-less-easy monetary policy. Perhaps.

FOMC Instant Insight: Are the Doves Still in Control?

Kathy Lien — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 03:58:51 -0400

Redacted Version of the April 2011 FOMC Statement

David Merkel — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 03:53:48 -0400

March 2011

April 2011

Comments

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economic recovery is on a firmer footing, and overall conditions in the labor market appear to be improving gradually.

April FOMC Statement Comparison

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 03:48:50 -0400

Blue-lined markup comparison of the April versus March Federal Open Market Committee statements below. Interestingly, there was no change indicated whatsoever, save a possible nuanced downgrade of the economic outlook. Also see past Fed-Day reactions on this site, and prior statement markups here.

Fed Day Waiting Pattern

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 03:47:24 -0400

Should be interesting with slightly overbought conditions going into the end of month (recently negative). Not to mention the mix-up in format today…As always, be prepared for a volatility spike.

Bernanke's "Curveball" Gives Yet Another Boost to Commodity ETFs

Gary Gordon — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 03:44:49 -0400

The Fed left interest rates alone again. Of course, as we all know, this was not the main story. The fact that Chairman Bernanke would address the central bank's monetary policy in a 45-minute Q&A session was the actual headliner.

More Oil Nationally, Less in Oklahoma

Brad Zigler — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 02:46:54 -0400

U.S. crude oil prices slumped this morning following the announcement of a larger-than-expected build in inventories. Stocks rose by 6.2 million barrels, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Energy this morning. Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute had estimated the national stockpile increased by 4.9 million barrels, while analysts expected a build between 800,000 and 1.7 million barrels.

Today Means Everything, Today Means Nothing

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 02:43:54 -0400

A trap in which I've fallen over the years is placing too much emphasis on every day of stock action, every hour, every minute. Where I've improved(but still need work) is to distinguish between a special day and a ho-hum day, hour, minute. The cornerstone to my approach is to identify the abnormal days and use them as signals; each "normal" day from there is irrelevant unless the passage of time adds up to its own signal.

Gold, Silver ETFs Higher After Fed Statement

Jim Slagle — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 01:11:56 -0400

McCall’s Call: What If The Dollar Strengthens?

Jim Slagle — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 01:11:12 -0400

Despite Rally, ETFs That Bet Against Stocks Gain Popularity

Jim Slagle — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 01:10:01 -0400

Gold Rebounds; Silver ETFs Keep Attracting Big Volume

Jim Slagle — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 01:09:16 -0400

Profit Taking in Gold and Silver? ETF And COT Data Suggest Otherwise

Tyler Durden — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 12:41:32 -0400

From GoldCore
Gold and silver are tentatively lower this morning despite the dollar and especially the yen being under pressure. The possibility of Japan being downgraded has seen the yen join the dollar under pressure and gold has risen to over 124,000 Japanese yen per ounce, some 2% below the record nominal high just over 126,000/oz.

Downplaying Debt Fears

Dock David Treece — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 12:13:15 -0400

How Has the U.S. Economy Performed Since the Last Fed Meeting?

Kathy Lien — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 12:07:11 -0400

Teucrium Plans a Different Kind of Commodity ETF

Michael Johnston — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 12:04:21 -0400

Teucrium, the Vermont-based firm behind the ultra-popular Corn Fund (CORN) that has plans to launch several additional commodity-specific ETPs, has laid the groundwork for another fund that would approach exposure to commodities in a new way. In a recent SEC filing, the firm detailed the Teucrium Agricultural Fund, which would offer exposure to agricultural commodities through other Teucrium products. The proposed ag fund, which would trade under the ticker TAGS, would seek to deliver daily changes equal to a weighted average of the NAVs per share of four other Teucrium products:

Commodities, Inflation & Strange Bedfellows

Jim Picerno — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 11:58:19 -0400

Ben Bernanke is scheduled to deliver his first formal press conference later today on behalf of the Federal Reserve. It's a safe bet that the subject of inflation will be front and center. Although consumer price inflation is low by historical standards, there's no shortage of worries about the direction for pricing pressures. Fed critics are quick to note that the consumer price index (CPI) is higher by 2.7% for the year through last month. More worrisome, we're told, is that the trend is up sharply from as recently as last November's 1.1% annual pace.

Trio of Niche iPad Financial Market Apps

Bill Luby — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 08:36:27 -0400

In my ongoing review of financial markets apps for iPad, there are several which defy easy categorization or appear to be the only entrants in their respective categories. Today I look at three such apps:

Frontrunning: April 27th

Tyler Durden — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 08:32:52 -0400

XLB Leads DBC; GLD Fizzles

Bob Barnes — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 08:31:37 -0400

ETFs That Fight Inflation and Dollar Devaluation Earn "Street" Credibility

Gary Gordon — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 07:15:25 -0400

For Atlas Shrugged fans, "Who is John Galt?" is the catch-phrase that unites proud producers around the country. Similarly, sophisticated television viewers have been dying to determine "Who killed Rosie Larsen?" in the AMC production of The Killing.
There's a bit more pomposity in the investment arena, however. Rather than admit to one's inability to predict or explain stock market direction, analysts are often caught falling back on the ever-popular phrase, "Don't fight the Fed."

B-Ds Slow to Stuff Wraps with ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 07:01:18 -0400

Strange Times For the Natural Gas ETN (GAZ)

Michael Johnston — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 05:09:10 -0400

Unlike mutual funds, ETFs are bought not from the company that creates and manages the products, but from other market participants. While that arrangement is responsible for many of the benefits of ETFs-such as intraday liquidity-it also introduces some potential pitfalls. Specifically, using market orders can be potentially hazardous as it introduces the possibility of paying more for a security than it is actually worth. Whereas mutual funds are bought and sold at NAV, ETFs change hands at whatever price clears the market.

Some Gold Miners Are Real Losers

Brad Zigler — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 03:44:06 -0400

'Today is for winners, yesterday's for losers' goes some old sports adage. Well, we're going to turn that maxim on its head with this column.
We looked at the five gold mining stocks-that is, those advancing most above their 200-day moving averages-in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX) yesterday. Today we'll look at the portfolio's five laggards.

Intermarket Shake-Up Day

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 01:41:22 -0400

If you're a close follower of intermarket relationships, you were likely surprised by this morning's strange intermarket behavior.
Let's take a look at this morning's "Inter-market Shake-up" and try to figure out where to go from there:

Blue Skies Above

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 01:38:13 -0400

All resistance shall be broken (even for metals)! Does this forward shift Fed Day tendencies? Gaps like today have recently closed over 85% of the time… not today! However, we seem to be facing some round number resistance at SPY $135.

Van Eck Launches Floating Rate Debt ETF (FLTR)

Michael Johnston — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 01:20:11 -0400

Energy ETFs: Take Your Pick

Jim Slagle — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 12:51:10 -0400

Soaring Volume in Silver ETFs: Are Short Sellers Giving Up?

Jim Slagle — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 12:47:49 -0400

Case-Shiller: US Home Prices In A Rut

Jim Slagle — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 12:38:48 -0400

Traders Mob Silver ETFs Again

Jim Slagle — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 12:38:02 -0400

Stocks, Dollar, and VIX Not Anticipating Negative Reaction to Fed

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 11:53:46 -0400

Experience tells us the best approach to this week's Fed trifecta (meeting, statement, and press conference) is (a) to be patient, (b) wait for the news to come out, (c) monitor the market's reaction, and (d) make any adjustments to our allocation if needed. From a contingency planning perspective, it is helpful to study the markets for clues that may foreshadow the reaction to Wednesday's Fed statement and press briefing.
The Fed's recent press release contains an important time change related to this week's statement:

Cautiousness Anhead of FOMC Causes Traders to Ignore US Data

Kathy Lien — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 11:51:10 -0400

Chart of the Week: VXV at Critical Juncture

Bill Luby — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 08:45:18 -0400

It seems almost like heresy to consider something other than silver or the VIX as a candidate for the Stock of the Week, but since there have been so many posts and charts about both subjects, I thought I might offer a slightly different twist.

USO Teeters

Bob Barnes — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 08:43:38 -0400

Strategic Briefing: The Fed's First Press Conference

Jim Picerno — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 08:40:22 -0400

Fed Sweating the Details of First News Conference
The Wall Street Journal | Apr 26

Frontrunning: April 26th

Tyler Durden — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 08:39:21 -0400

Forex: Wake Up Central Banks, Prices Are Rising

Kathy Lien — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 06:46:04 -0400

Accumulative Tick Changes Its Tune

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 06:41:56 -0400

At least for the day…This multi-day chart demonstrates the smoothing effect of accumulative tick and how that helps to highlight the underlying intra-day trend from a buy-sell pressure standpoint.

Commodities Wrap: Positioning for the FOMC

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 06:40:31 -0400

Small-Cap ETFs Reinforce April's Shift Toward International Assets

Gary Gordon — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 06:37:55 -0400

Two years ago, Van Eck's Market Vectors made a big splash with its introduction of Small Cap Brazil (BRF). It was the second highly anticipated small cap country fund, as Claymore's (Guggenheim) Small Cap China (HAO) had been an instantaneous success.
Of course, the investment community didn't embrace every small country offering with unbridled fervor. For instance, WisdomTree's Small Cap Japan (DFJ) has struggled to capture investor interest since its inception.

Steelcase and the Rise of the Worker

Jared Woodard — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 06:36:33 -0400

Sitting all day is really, really bad for you, even if you aren't fat or unhealthy. That's the main thrust of recent coverage from the Times and NPR on research done into the health effects of reduced physical activity, especially sitting. Sedentary time sounds downright dangerous:

New ETF Offers Broader Brazil Exposure

Jim Slagle — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 06:35:00 -0400

The Year's Best Gold Miner Bet

Brad Zigler — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 06:34:12 -0400

Last week, we looked at the trailing performance of gold mining shares, as a class, vs. bullion, using the indexes underlying the Market Vectors gold miners ETFs as our benchmarks.
That's not to say an investor couldn't have made money with a recent mining stock investment. There are some standout stocks in the indexes. Here's a look at the five gold producers in the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index that have advanced the farthest above their 200-day moving averages. The index is tracked by the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX):

The Game Inside the Game

Editorial Staff — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 05:20:23 -0400

By Guest Contributor

The Power of Buying Leading Stocks at Alternative Entry Points

David Grandey — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 03:45:14 -0400

Last weekend we said:
"When looking at the indexes, we see a lot of positive structure:
We have a lot of positive structure showing on the charts above.
1. Potential Head And Shoulders Bottom

iShares Rebuts SLV Conspriacy Theories

Jim Slagle — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 03:12:10 -0400

Diamonds in the Rough: Ten of Our Favorite ETFs with AUM Under $25 Million

Michael Johnston — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 02:02:54 -0400

The ETP lineup now consists of nearly 1,200 individual products with aggregate assets of well more than $1 trillion. And both of those numbers continue to expand at an impressive rate; new ETFs are launched seemingly on a daily basis, while cash continues to flow out of traditional mutual funds and into exchange-traded products.

Silver Shorts Feel the Burn

Clif Droke — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 01:42:51 -0400

Silver has stolen the spotlight among investors in recent days after surging nearly $50/oz. Lost in all the commotion, however, are the wildly disparate rumors accompanying silver's rally. It's hard to believe that it has been only a week since a widely circulated story concerning a large hedge fund which supposedly made a "gargantuan" bet against silver. This story, which smacked of being planted by speculative interests, was circulated by some otherwise reputable financial publications.

Is the Strength in Energy Finished?

Jim Slagle — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 01:00:11 -0400

Esposito: Time For A New Way To Seed ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 12:45:23 -0400

Zweig: Hot Silver Funds Can Scald; Sprott Moves To Lift Restrictions

Jim Slagle — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 12:44:19 -0400

iPath Rolls Out 18 Commodities ETNs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 12:42:15 -0400

Three ETFs To Watch This Week:

Jim Slagle — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 12:41:27 -0400

BlackRock Responds to Speculation on Silver ETF Holdings

Jim Slagle — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 12:39:39 -0400

Four ETFs to Play Apple's Stellar Quarter

Kevin Grewal — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 12:17:50 -0400

Once again, technology giant Apple (AAPL) beat analyst expectations and continues to be the envy of the technology world. This outperformance is likely to provide support to the PowerShares QQQ (QQQ), the iShares Dow Jones US Technology ETF (IYW), the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) and the Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT).

Dollar Receives Little Support From New Home Sales

Kathy Lien — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 12:17:42 -0400

The New Finance For A New Era

Jim Picerno — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 12:14:40 -0400

The myth persists that buy-and-hold strategies are worthless. We live in a new era, we're told. The old rules of finance are gone. Ours is new age of active management for all portfolios at all times. But the reality is that not much has changed. Markets are still volatile, predicting return is still hard, and trading costs and taxes still take a heavy toll on gross returns over time. There are, however, new insights that inspire modifying the old advice. But that still falls short of throwing out the baby with the bathwater.

Break Out the Weekly Charts!

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 12:10:10 -0400

After 8 weeks of chop and halfway through earnings season, we're nearing the point where weekly charts make more sense than daily. It hasn't felt like compression because we went straight up, then straight down(17 days of Middle East + Japan), then straight back up(16 days of rebound), then quickly down(6 days of early earnings + S&P downgrade) and back up(3 days & counting), but each day brings us closer to a resolution of this congestion. With that, our risk/reward potential stretches well beyond "yesterday's high or low".

New Lows for Gold/Silver Relationship and Monthly Views

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 12:09:38 -0400

A lot of traders have been correctly focusing on the skyrocketing rise in Silver prices, but let's look at the chart from a different angle.
The Gold to Silver relationship (a relative strength measure) just hit new lows this week and that's a very big deal.
Let's take a look at the last 30 years and go from there:

Is Another Market Breakout Imminent?

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 08:39:21 -0400
The NASDAQ Composite led the way to the upside last week as the benchmark index sprinted to a 2% gain.
We now sit just 20 points below a new 52-week high, and 40 points off the all significant 2007 prior bull market high.

For the month, the NASDAQ is currently higher by about 1.4%.

Financial Market Apps for iPad

Bill Luby — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 08:35:21 -0400

In reviewing broad-based financial markets news and data apps for iPad, I began with the free apps, which include the high quality CNBC Real-Time for the iPad and runner up, Bloomberg for iPad – both of which I reviewed earlier this month.

Weighing the Week Ahead: All Eyes on Bernanke

Jeff Miller — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 08:34:02 -0400

We have not yet reached the peak of earnings season, but that story may take second chair this week. There is a fixation on the Fed, QE II, and prospects for a policy change. In this environment there is yet another experiment, a press conference by Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.

Frontrunning: April 25th

Tyler Durden — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 08:33:09 -0400

SMH Quick Step

Bob Barnes — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 08:32:21 -0400

Sample TradeStation code (ver. 2000i)

Metal ETFs: Astonishing Performers Overshadow the More Fragile Participants

Gary Gordon — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 04:53:21 -0400

Market watchers have been "bedazzled" by gold's new price tag at $1500 per ounce. Similarly, ETF enthusiasts have been intrigued by Van Eck's ability to attract $500 million in assets for Market Vectors Rare Earth Metals (REMX); the exchange-traded fund has been in existence for less than 6 months!

Performance for many of the Metal ETFs and Metal ETNs have been nothing short of astonishing. In as little as 3 months, five prominent representatives have double digit returns.

Commodities Wrap: Long Weekend Ahead

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 04:45:23 -0400

Recovery Is the Mother's Milk of Stocks

Larry Kudlow — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 01:39:57 -0400

As I've written many times before, profits are the mother's milk of stocks, and for that matter, business and the entire economy. And what we witnessed today in this big market rally was the return of earnings to the center stage.
Not just Intel's numbers, and not just Apple after-the-bell, but industrial companies like Honeywell and United Technologies and consumer companies as well. Ultimately, the recovery in profits over the past two years has been the backbone of the stock market's big rise.

U.S. Data Fails to Support the Economy or the USD

Kathy Lien — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 12:12:17 -0400

Look at these ETF Charts Before Calling a Top in Silver (SLV, ZSL)

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 12:05:30 -0400

Are you trying to call a top in silver?
You're not alone - I've been picking up on a lot of chatter in the blog (and email) world about traders and analysts trying to call that proverbial "top" in Silver "any day now."
Before you can't fight the temptation any longer, at least take a look at these four charts - Two Daily and Two Weekly - of major Silver ETFs SLV (bullish) and ZSL (ultra-bearish).
Let's start with SLV Weekly for our reference:

Profit Margins: Right Answer, Wrong Question

Jeff Miller — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 09:04:10 -0400

Many intelligent people make mistakes not because they have the wrong answers, but because they have asked the wrong questions. Smart investors are no different. There is an antidote! Readers of "A Dash" know that I strongly recommend the go-to guide on critical thinking written by my own favorite professor, Neil Browne. The book title, Asking the Right Questions, tells an important part of the story.

Why I'm Not Worried about VIX Derivatives

Jared Woodard — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 09:03:06 -0400

The team at FT Alphaville have been on a tear recently, analyzing all manner of VIX-related issues and potential problems. I’ve linked to those posts below, and they’re definitely worth reading even though I don’t agree with everything there.

Here are two worries about pricing and replication of VIX products that leave me unmoved. First, the matter of replicating the spot VIX index.

The VIX, VIX Products and Replication

Bill Luby — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 09:01:41 -0400

Tactical ETF Review: Bulls in Control

Jim Picerno — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 08:58:34 -0400

SMH Jumps

Bob Barnes — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 08:49:38 -0400

Frontrunning: April 21st

Tyler Durden — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 08:46:11 -0400

Standard & Poorer

Dock David Treece — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 08:28:03 -0400

The big news this week came when the rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded its outlook on long-term US debt on fears that the United States' budget difficulties may lead the Treasury to default on some of its bonds.

This news, of course, sent shockwaves through financial markets, knocking major stock industries down several points upon release. The sentiment - and portfolios - of many investors around the world changed very quickly with this action by S&P.

First Trust Rolls Out International AlphaDEX ETFs

Michael Johnston — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 05:19:40 -0400
First Trust announced the launch of 13 new ETFs this week, building out the company's suite of AlphaDEX products that offer exposure to equity benchmarks constructed using quantitative analysis designed to identify stocks that will outperform broad cap-weighted indexes. Joining an existing suite of domestic equity ETFs are nine international equity AlphaDEX products:
Asia Pacific Ex-Japan AlphaDEX Fund (FPA)
Europe AlphaDEX Fund (FEP)
Latin America AlphaDEX Fund (FLN)
Brazil AlphaDEX Fund (FBZ)
China AlphaDEX Fund (FCA)

Dividend ETFs, Defensive ETFs: "Risk-Sort-Of-On" Trade Favors Moderation

Gary Gordon — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 05:16:59 -0400

As the mainstream media touted the NASDAQ's best day in 6 months, its Powershares proxy (QQQ) has remained range-bound for the past 10 weeks. Similarly, as CNBC guests heralded earnings successes from chip-giant Intel to industrial conglomerate United Technologies, the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) had failed to appear on the new "52-Week High" list.

Commodities Wrap: Managing the Trade

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 05:12:54 -0400

Recession? Steel Dynamics Says 'No!'

Brad Zigler — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 02:58:55 -0400

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (Nasdaq: STLD) surprised everyone with its first-quarter results Tuesday. And I mean everyone.
The Indiana-based steel manufacturer posted earnings per share of 46 cents, a nickel above the Street consensus call and even above the company's own guidance. Management had been steering analysts toward an EPS range between 37 cents and 42 cents.
First-quarter EPS compares with 7 cents in the previous quarter and 29 cents a year ago.

Monster Gap Breaks Multiple Resistance

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 12:42:46 -0400

Isn't it nice when an overnight gap makes breaking prospective resistance unnecessary for lowly day-traders? Today's open sliced right through prospective resistance at the 10/20/50-day moving averages. As is typical for large gaps, the first hour retest of R2 held as well, although there is a growing divergence in VIX readings—put protection anyone? Also note energy highs affect on the Transports…

PIMCO Launches ETF Replicating Its Flagship Total Return Fund

Tyler Durden — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 12:33:55 -0400

SLV Is Now "Hard to Borrow" At Goldman

Tyler Durden — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 12:32:20 -0400
And now for the latest news in the silver meltup: SLV just moved to Hard To Borrow status at Goldman Sachs. This pertains to institutionals who are Goldman Prime Broker clients. Soon coming to every prime broker near you. Comex margin hike imminent now that it is impossible to short the largest silver ETF in the world.

The Power & Peril of Rearview Mirrors

Jim Picerno — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 11:46:15 -0400

Investors shouldn't be slaves to market history, but neither can they afford to ignore the past. The thought comes to mind as I look through the new edition of the Ibbotson SBBI Classic Yearbook.

Dollar Getting Decimated, Don't Get Too Excited About Existing Home Sales

Kathy Lien — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 11:41:50 -0400

What Gold Prices Say About the USD

Kathy Lien — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 07:07:29 -0400

We Spend Too Much and Grow Too Little

Larry Kudlow — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 05:30:20 -0400

Treasury man Tim Geithner was optimistic today about getting a deal on the budget deficit and raising the debt ceiling. In particular, he was confident that in the next few months a compromise would lock in some clear targets for deficit reduction, with a credible enforcement mechanism. He believes the debt-ceiling increase would not be rejected by Congress and that the congressional deal would also put in place deficit targets.

But the problem with the deficit, and for that matter the growing debt, is that we spend too much and grow the economy too little.

Commodities Wrap: Using MA's to Trade

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 04:10:50 -0400

Three Economic Realties That ETF Investors Should Not Ignore

Gary Gordon — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 03:56:24 -0400

I genuinely avoid outright bearishness and bullishness. Instead, I use information to make an asset purchase, Then, I control the investment outcome with stop-limit loss orders and hedging techniques.
That said, I often serve up titillating details about which ETFs I like at a particular time. Similarly, I discuss why I may be leaning towards less risk or more risk in client portfolios.

Getting Creative with Currency ETFs

Michael Johnston — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 03:05:16 -0400

ETFs have become popular in recent years as tools for establishing low cost and tax-efficient exposure to traditional asset classes such as stocks and bonds. But the exchange-traded structure also carries appeal as a means of accessing asset classes that have historically be hard-to-reach or difficult to efficiently maintain. That is certainly the case in the commodity space, as investors have embraced a comprehensive lineup of exchange-traded commodity products as a way to bet on natural resource prices.

Five ETFs Trading Below The Mendoza Line

Jim Slagle — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 02:58:11 -0400

Brewin Dolphin: ETFs Are Not As Toxic As Claimed

Jim Slagle — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 02:42:07 -0400

Ah, Spring. Just Smell the...Gasoline!

Brad Zigler — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 02:32:40 -0400

Spring's bloomed all ‘round my neck of the woods. Golden Poppies festoon the roadsides, brightening the landscape otherwise made gloomy by the signage announcing the ever-escalating price of petrol.
Retail pump prices are changing daily now, playing catch-up with the 15 percent hike in wholesale prices over the past month.

Precious Metal ETFs: Ultimate Guide

Kevin Grewal — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 12:42:46 -0400

As economic uncertainty continues to prevail around the world and political instability takes its toll in North Africa and the Middle East, the appeal for gold and other precious metals is expected to continue to remain elevated, pushing up prices.

Ten-Year Note Yield and the Yield Curve

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 12:20:38 -0400

With the recent talk of US debt, traders have been discussing Treasury Yields and the potential for skyrocketing yields if the AAA Rating of the United States should ever be reduced a rank.
Nevertheless, let's take an updated look at the current 10-Year Treasury Note Yield and then pull the perspective back to what the current "Yield Curve" says about the state of affairs at this moment.
First, the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Chart:

Bogle Backhands BlackRock As Vanguard Sails Into Europe ETF Biz

Jim Slagle — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 12:15:56 -0400

Global X Proposes Two MLP ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 12:07:01 -0400

Is the "Risk-On" Trade Coming to an End?

Larry Kudlow — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 12:03:13 -0400

There's a lot of talk right now about U.S. credit downgrades and whether we can possibly get a Washington budget deal that actually controls spending and borrowing.
Stocks are worried. And they should be. But there is an additional danger lurking out there that investors need to be paying close attention to: the end of QE2.
In the long run, I think it would be great if the Fed finally stopped pumping all this inflationary money into the system. But shorter term, my advice to you is "caveat emptor"—investors beware.

A Rebound in Housing For March, But the Old Challenges Still Apply

Jim Picerno — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 11:59:07 -0400

Today's update on housing construction and newly issued building permits for March brings some welcome news after the sharp declines of February. But let's not kid ourselves: the housing market is still depressed on several fronts and today's numbers don't really change much. What they do suggest is that residential real estate has found a bottom. That's not much, but it's an improvement over the dire outlook implied by February's reports.

Credit Quality Concerns Overshadow Housing Numbers

Kathy Lien — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 11:55:55 -0400

An Economic Pearl Harbor

John Nyaradi — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 11:51:32 -0400

No doubt there will be gallons upon gallons of ink spilled regarding today's action by Standard and Poors in which they took the historic step of downgrading the United States' long term credit outlook from stable to negative.
As far as I know, this is the first time in history that such an event has occurred, and the first time since the mid-1990s that any U.S. debt has received more than a hint of a "negative" rating that subsequently, never transpired.

Investor Guide to S&P Downgrade on US

Jeff Miller — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 09:33:05 -0400

The big story of the day was the S&P decision to put US debt on watch with a negative outlook. This led to a strange trading day where stocks traded lower, bonds moved higher (!), the dollar strengthened, and the CDS spread on US debt (measured in Euros) move up a few bps.

EEM Leads Pack Down

Bob Barnes — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 09:30:31 -0400

Frontrunning: April 19th

Tyler Durden — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 09:29:35 -0400

The Assault on the Dollar

Kathy Lien — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 07:06:28 -0400

Commodities: Tax Day

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 07:03:40 -0400

Van Eck Plans European Bond ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 02:27:43 -0400

Gold and Dollars: The Inflation Year in Review

Brad Zigler — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 02:25:28 -0400

Nothing encourages a look back over the past year's financial milestones than a tax deadline. A lot's happened since April 15, 2010, not the least of which is a turnaround in the U.S. dollar's prospects. For inflation, I mean.
Just last week, we were treated to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly updates on the retail and wholesale price metrics.
Government data showed the largest year-over-year increases in both the Producer Price Index (+5.8 percent) and the Consumer Price Index (+2.7 percent) since March 2010.

Run to 50% Retrace Holds for Now

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 01:30:42 -0400

Price slammed into the fifty percent retrace of its most recent trough to peak run near SPY $129.70. It's holding for now, but its rare after such a big move to not undercut lows in the days ahead. Intra-day resistance at respective VWAPs is strong, although VIX has stabilized....

Charting Surging Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) Stock into Weekly Resistance

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 12:57:22 -0400

Earlier, I mentioned that retailer Abercrombie & Fitch snuck its way onto the "Top 5 Most Extended Stocks from the 200d SMA" list and that it was worth checking out for more analysis.
Indeed, ANF is at a critical pivot or turning point on its weekly chart that will determine whether this strong power-rally continues... or as the chart suggests, takes a slight/small breather here into a critical weekly resistance level.
Let's see the Weekly Chart first:

S&P Concerns on U.S. Debt Hit Stock ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 12:53:53 -0400

Goldman's Take On S&P's Warning

Tyler Durden — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 12:43:09 -0400

Trading Lesson From the Links

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 11:45:14 -0400

I realize the blogosphere has no need for another “trading as a sport” post. But fresh off my annual Myrtle Beach golf trip, I’m writing this to remind myself of some similarities and important differences between market speculation and golf.

AdvisorShares Plans SectorSAM ETF

Michael Johnston — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 11:42:46 -0400

AdvisorShares, one of the largest issuers of actively-managed ETFs, has put yet another fund of funds product into an already full pipeline. The proposed Rockledge SectorSAM ETF (SSAM) would seek "to generate stable and consistent annual returns under all market conditions" according to a recent SEC filing. The fund would utilize both long and short positions in other exchange-traded funds that "offer diversified exposure to U.S. large capitalization sectors," seemingly referring to usage of the Sector SPDRs or competing products from other issuers.

The Big Gasoline Pinch

Jim Picerno — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 11:40:35 -0400

When SPY Gaps Down Below 2 Up Closes

Rob Hanna — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 11:38:48 -0400

SPY is currently (9am pre-open) trading below the close of the last 2 days - both of which were up days. Below is a study that shows how the market has performed open to close when this has occured in the past.
Not encouraging stats if you're a bull. Below is an equity curve to see how it has played out over time.

S&P Downgrade Watch Spoils Dollar Rally

Kathy Lien — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 11:34:06 -0400

Equities Decline For Week, Consolidation Continues

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 08:35:43 -0400

Weighing the Week Ahead: Political Sideshow Continues

Jeff Miller — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 08:33:30 -0400

One of the main attractions in my career change from college professor to the financial markets was the ability to profit from situations where the conventional wisdom was wrong. This is especially true when the emotional realm of politics confuses many about their investment decisions.

This is how I feel right now.

Long-time readers of "A Dash" know that these are favorite themes.

Comparative Performance of VIX-Based ETFs

Rob Hanna — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 08:29:06 -0400

Frontrunning: April 18th

Tyler Durden — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 08:26:22 -0400

Strategic Briefing: Small Cap Equities

Jim Picerno — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 08:25:18 -0400

Are Small Caps Too Pricey?
The Wall Street Journal | Apr 18

Chinese Recycling and US Interest Rates

Michael Pettis — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 08:23:17 -0400

VIX or TVIX

Bob Barnes — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 08:18:32 -0400

In Earning Season, "Safer" Sector ETFs Are Winning

Gary Gordon — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 07:00:04 -0400

There has been a lot of talk about equity market resilience. There has been even more talk about the enormous amount of Stock ETF inflow... $5.5 billion last week alone!

Nevertheless, the largest gains are coming from the least volatile sectors. Healthcare ETFs have been noteworthy outperformers over 1 and 3 months. What's more, share prices of peanut butter and toothpaste corporations (consumer staples companies) are also hitting new 52-week highs.

Commodities Wrap: Reflation

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 06:58:23 -0400

USD: Is This a Pause Or Bottom?

Kathy Lien — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 06:04:31 -0400

The Simple But Important Support Line to Watch in Goldman Sachs (GS)

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 04:29:12 -0400

Goldman Sachs (GS) appears to be in trouble before Congress again - or at least before a Senate panel.
What might that mean for the stock? Or more specifically, what current price level should we be watching as a critical pivot level between buyers and sellers?
Good question! Here is the simple but critical short-term pivot level to watch in GS share prices:

Recapturing the Five-DMA

Jeff Pietsch — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 04:05:03 -0400

Price finally retook its declining five-day moving average and internals are bullish at the mid-day. Looking ahead, I'm not convinced there is alot of room above on the daily charts, but I'll just keep trading what is in front of me rather than hypothecate as yet unproven resistance (short of some selective hedging, that is). Price rising into Relative Volume peaks is suggestive of short-covering....

30% Gain In 3 Days Highlights Watch List Success

David Grandey — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 03:33:50 -0400

Are We at the Upper Range for "Safe" Inflation?

Jim Picerno — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 03:17:43 -0400

On That $2 Million Bet Of $1,800 Gold By October

Tyler Durden — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 02:20:19 -0400

Silver ETF Sets Another Record; Climbs Nearly 2%

Jim Slagle — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 02:07:56 -0400

Global Regulators Compete To Warn Of ETF Risks

Jim Slagle — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 01:41:46 -0400

Five ETF Picks For Your IRA

Jim Slagle — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 01:37:16 -0400

SPX Correction Looming?

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 01:07:15 -0400

Ameriprise to Buy Grail, Push into ETF Industry

Michael Johnston — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 12:43:04 -0400

After months of speculation sparked by an SEC filing announcing Grail Advisors was near an agreement to be acquired, the future for a pioneer in the active ETF space is a bit more clear. Minneapolis-based Ameriprise Financial has reportedly agreed to acquire Grail, giving the financial giant the exemptive relief required to launch actively-managed ETFs.

Two Sub-Sector ETFs Dramatically Outperform Their Respective Economic Segments

Gary Gordon — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 12:34:08 -0400

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) has experienced admirable capital appreciation since the November 2010 elections. Few people would complain about 8% in 6 1/2 months.
Yet, much like the broader S&P 500, XLV struggled through several mini-corrections - one in November and one in March. Each time, XLV fell below a significant 50-day moving average.

U.S. Data Gives the Fed Very Little Reason to Act

Kathy Lien — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 12:31:48 -0400

ProShares Debuts Two Leveraged Bond ETFs

Michael Johnston — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 12:29:50 -0400

ProShares continued to build out its suite of leveraged and inverse bond ETF offerings, debuting two new products on Thursday that offer leveraged exposure to corporate bonds. Those new additions to a rapidly-expanding ETF product lineup include options for investors seeking amplified exposure to both investment grade and high yield corporate debt.

Managing Potential Risk in a Bull Market

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 12:27:54 -0400

A hypothetical question on our recent investment approach might be:
"Chris, you started redeploying cash on March 17 with the S&P trading near 1,256. Why did you begin to raise cash again on April 12? If we are in a bull market, shouldn't we just stay invested?"

Observations On The Chinese Real Estate Sector Following The Biggest Price Decline In 5 Years

Tyler Durden — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 12:24:36 -0400

Frontrunning: April 15th

Tyler Durden — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 08:19:11 -0400

Register Early to Attend the Dallas Traders Expo in June

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 08:18:35 -0400

It’ll be here before we know it!

The International Traders Expo is expanding its summer meeting in June to a new city this year - Dallas, TX – and there’s no time like the present to register early for the next big Expo event.

Silver's New BFF

Jim Slagle — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 05:59:40 -0400

Commodities Wrap: Commodities Corner

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 05:36:39 -0400

Silver: Goodbye $42...

Tyler Durden — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 05:29:45 -0400

Silver is now trading at $42.10: the highest price since 1981, and ever closer to the all time Hunt Brother high, which is now just over $8 away. At this rate, and if Bolivia indeed nationalizes its silver mines, we give it a month for a new all time notional high in the metal.

Positive Cumulative Tick

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 05:21:04 -0400

That would be the heavily dotted line/ green-blue today as opposed to reddish going into yesterday's close. Speaking of which, I might expect stronger resistance near that SPY level, say $131.50.

Playing The Gold/Silver Ratio Four Ways

Brad Zigler — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 03:26:25 -0400

A picture, it's said, is worth a thousand words. So take a look at the picture below and try to come up with a thousand words to describe what you see:

Gold/Silver Ratio Spread

The graph's title might offer a clue: It's a head-to-head comparison of trades based on the gold/silver ratio.

Van Eck Debuts Small Cap Russia ETF (RSXJ)

Michael Johnston — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 02:17:54 -0400

Today marks the first day of trading for the Market Vectors Russia Small-Cap ETF (RSXJ), the first exchange-traded product offering U.S. investors exposure to small cap Russian stocks. The new fund from Van Eck will seek to replicate the performance of the MarketVectors Russia Small-Cap Index, a benchmark that includes about 35 small cap Russian stocks. The underlying components are unlikely to be familiar to many U.S. investors; the largest individual weightings are afforded to Pharmstandar, (8%), LSR Group (7.9%), and O'Key Group (6.8%).

Report: Grail To Be Bought By Ameriprise

Jim Slagle — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 12:57:55 -0400

Speculating on Agriculture Prices with ETFs

Jim Slagle — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 12:53:14 -0400

Could ETFs Become the Next Toxic Assets?

Jim Slagle — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 12:26:36 -0400

Big Rounded Arc Playing Out on S&P 500

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 12:16:26 -0400

There's a large-scale (from the perspective of the intraday chart) "Rounded Reversal" or "Price Arc" pattern playing out in the stock market right now, which is one of my favorite patterns.
Let's take a look at the current "arc" structure and note two levels of Fibonacci Retracements to watch as the Arc continues.

News Highs for Consumer Staples ETFs Indicate a Lack of Conviction

Gary Gordon — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 12:13:07 -0400

Health Care ETFs have outperformed the broader market over the last month. They've been competitive over the previous 3 months. Even though I have not been a buyer of diversified health care funds, I recognize the possibility of "value" there.

A New Picture Emerging

Derek Hernquist — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 12:05:43 -0400

We're in the same price range as April 12th, with the same disappointment towards the inability for$SPY to hold a bounce. But my stats show me a much different picture. Not enough to switch from red light to green light, but significant enough that index shorts may be ripe for a squeeze.

U.S. Data Gives Investors Fewer Reasons to Buy Dollars

Kathy Lien — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 11:57:52 -0400

The reason why the U.S. dollar has performed so terribly in recent weeks is because there is alot of reluctance within the Federal Reserve to begin the process of normalizing monetary policy. In fact, this dynamic draws such a wide comparison between the Fed and other central banks that investors have driven the dollar to a record low against the Swiss Franc. This morning's economic reports only added salt to the wound with softer than expected U.S. data driving the dollar lower against the euro, Japanese Yen and other major currencies.

New Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise Above 400k

Jim Picerno — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 11:55:23 -0400

New filings for jobless benefits rose by 27,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis last week-the biggest weekly increase in nearly two months. New claims, as a result, moved above the 400,000 mark for the first time in five weeks. It all adds up to a disappointment, but it's too soon to wave the white flag. This is a volatile series and so no one should read too much into any one number. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average is still well below 400k, and so it's not obvious that the recent downtrend has been broken.

Frontrunning: April 14th

Tyler Durden — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 08:20:03 -0400

Current Market Perspectives: Our Best ETF Ideas

Jeff Miller — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 08:19:17 -0400

I have enjoyed a constructive and helpful relationship with Seeking Alpha, where I was one of the earliest contributors. My message is not the most popular in that group, but I have a loyal audience there. Seeking Alpha runs most but not all of my articles. Occasionally I do something with them that I republish here.

3,768 Estimates Of The US Equity Risk Premium

Jim Picerno — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 08:15:13 -0400

GDX in Neutral

Bob Barnes — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 08:12:21 -0400

Technical Trade Starts Too Strong

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 07:05:03 -0400

Often traders will see strong gaps hold and run. But not today, apparently not in this environment and Finnies are bringing price down. The trade down has been very technical (note the floor trader pivot level hits) and is retesting the fifty-day moving average here at the mid-day. Will key support hold the retest? Internals could be much worse as compared to the price action, but they are certainly deteriorating. I see next SPY support at $130.

Market Like a Coiling Snake

John Nyaradi — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 06:43:26 -0400

Major markets continued their sideways action today, and like a coiled snake, everyday this goes on, more and more energy is being stored for the eventual strike.

Whether the cobra bites the bulls or bears is, of course, an unknown; however, Wall Street Sector Selector remains positioned for lower prices ahead.

Today the S&P 500 closed just fractionally below its 50 Day Moving Average, the widely watched indicator that tends to be the demarcation line between bull and bear markets for short to medium term traders.

Intraday Swing Trading with the TICK

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 06:42:10 -0400

In keeping with the recent lessons with the TICK and trading the intraday markets, let's take a broader perspective of the past few days to see specifically how clean TICK Divergences helped you trade "swings" or mini-reversals intraday in the SPY or S&P 500 index.

Here's the broader multi-day chart:

Tax and Debt Bomb

Larry Kudlow — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 06:22:38 -0400

We thought tax reform meant lowering rates and broadening the base by eliminating or cutting back on various deductions, credits, and loopholes. That's what the Bowles-Simpson commission proposed. That's what Paul Ryan and David Camp are working on. And that's the pro-growth model.

ETFs Proving Popular With Younger Investors

Jim Slagle — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 06:21:53 -0400

USD: Struggling to Find Buyers

Kathy Lien — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 06:12:04 -0400

Commodities Wrap: U-Turn

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 06:06:16 -0400

ETFs May Not Always Do What You Think: Example of Japan Nikkei and EWJ

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 02:11:56 -0400

Exchange Traded Funds are gaining wide popularity for investors and traders alike, and for great reasons. I need not trumpet the many benefits of trading or investing with ETFs.
However, I wanted to bring up a recent example of Japan and the spike in trading of the popular EWJ ETF which left a few invstors bewildered, especially if they were tracking along with Japan's Nikkei Index.
Here - Let's see what the assumption was and what went wrong on the chart:
First, let's chart Japan's Nikkei Index:

BIG Gasoline Drawdown

Brad Zigler — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 02:09:59 -0400

Today's Energy Department inventory report showed a much-larger-than-expected decline in domestic gasoline supplies.
Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute estimated a drawdown of 4.6 million barrels, a more bullish scenario than the 900,000- to 1.3-million-barrel off-take seen by sell-side and independent analysts. Definitive government data showed gasoline inventories actually decreased by 7.0 million barrels, putting supplies near the lower limit of their average range.

Fighting the Last Battle

Dock David Treece — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 01:26:28 -0400

Where Are All the ETF Closures?

Michael Johnston — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 12:41:43 -0400

The tremendous growth of the ETF industry over the last several years has been generally cheered by the media and investors alike, as the introduction of cost-efficient products offering exposure to more and more asset classes has been praised as a positive development for investors both big and small. But many have viewed the surge in the ETF product lineup more skeptically, proposing that product development efforts have far outpaced the market demand for new exchange-traded products.

Doug Kass Shorting S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Jim Slagle — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 12:35:54 -0400

What Are the Leaders Doing?

Jeff White — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 12:32:42 -0400

The market has been resting for a couple of weeks now - and who could blame it? After a run of more than 7% off the March low, some kind of digestion was in order.
Initially, we just saw indecision as the indexes flip-flopped around key levels (NAZ 2802, S&P 500 1332, DJIA 12400, etc.). Since then, however, they have weakened a bit. That isn't bad, and the pullback could quite easily result in a higher low on the daily charts (vs. the March lows which are well beneath current levels).

Retail Sales Rise Again in March

Jim Picerno — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 12:21:56 -0400

Retail sales for March continued to climb, the U.S. Census Bureau reports. In fact, last month's seasonally adjusted 0.4% rise in U.S. retail and food services sales was the ninth consecutive monthly increase.

GFMS 2011 Gold Survey Sees Price Surpassing $1,600 Before Year-End

Tyler Durden — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 12:15:51 -0400

Global X Rolls Out Waste Management ETF

Jim Slagle — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 12:12:43 -0400

Copper ETFs Lower as Goldman Says Sell

Jim Slagle — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 12:10:46 -0400

ETFs Are “All The Rage” With Generations X And Y

Jim Slagle — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 12:08:05 -0400

No Help For USD From Retail Sales

Kathy Lien — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 12:03:12 -0400

China ETFs: The Importance of Small Cap and Cyclical Outperformance

Gary Gordon — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 11:47:25 -0400

Riding the China equity wave since the 3rd week of February hasn't been that difficult. There have been dozens of reasons - fundamental, technical, contrarian, historical - to revisit the mainland.
On the other hand, selecting the best exchange-traded fund for the job may not have been as easy. In my columns, I typically use SPDR S&P China (GXC) to illustrate a point. Meanwhile, with clients, I may use regional funds like iShares All-Asia excluding Japan (AAXJ) or an exporting neighbor like iShares Malaysia (EWM) or even mutual funds from the Matthews Fund family.

Frontrunning: April 13th

Tyler Durden — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 08:26:55 -0400

Can Investors Survive the End of QE2?

Jeff Miller — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 08:08:50 -0400

As regular readers of "A Dash" know, I have been monitoring debate about Fed policy for many years. There have been many confusing sources, including some bloggers who built their entire reputation on criticising the Fed. For 5 1/2 years I have suggested a different and profitable way of viewing the Fed:

Will The Growth Momentum Last?

Jim Picerno — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 08:06:54 -0400

Huntington ETFs May Be Nearing Launch

Jim Slagle — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 06:23:23 -0400

USD: Can We Count on the Consumer?

Kathy Lien — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 05:54:41 -0400

No "End of the World" Stock Market Trade

Larry Kudlow — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 05:51:52 -0400

There's a lot of pessimism in the air right now.

This pessimism is rooted in themes I've been discussing for week and weeks - namely, lower profit margins from spiking energy, food, and raw material prices; supply-chain disruptions from the Japanese disaster that cuts into top line sales revenue; and gasoline price hikes depressing the consumer.

It's all there and it's all a problem.

But, I do not believe there's an end of the world stock market trade here. Corrections come and go. We may be correcting.

The Holy Grail Projects

David Merkel — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 03:27:42 -0400

When I started my asset management business, I did not know what I was doing. I probably still don’t, though finally I have a little more assets under management than I have of my own assets managed by my strategies. I learned that I needed to manage both stocks and bonds, in order to provide both enterprising and safe investments, respectively.

Talking ETF Weighting Methodologies With Tony Davidow

Jim Slagle — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 03:23:08 -0400

Silver Shaves Earlier Losses; Analysts See Uptrend Still In-Place

Jim Slagle — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 02:35:51 -0400

6 ETFs to Profit in a Stalled Market

Jim Slagle — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 02:27:20 -0400

Oil: What Goes Up Less, Goes Down More

Brad Zigler — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 02:18:39 -0400

We've all watched the stunning run-up in oil and gasoline prices since the turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East boiled over. Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude-the light, sweet U.S. benchmark favored for gasoline production-climbed a wall of worry from $84 a barrel in mid-February to nearly $113. That is, until Friday.

Three Treasury Bond ETFs To Help You Get Short Like Bill Gross

Jim Slagle — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 01:27:45 -0400

A Back-Door Approach To China

Jim Slagle — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 01:22:53 -0400

Short Report: Pressure On EEM Drops

Jim Slagle — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 01:21:22 -0400

Short Interest - Does it Mean Anything?

Tyler Durden — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 01:16:34 -0400

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors:
Short Interest - Does It Mean Anything

Turnaround Tuesday?

Rob Hanna — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 01:13:11 -0400

April Showers SPY Support Levels

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 01:02:23 -0400

CAD Tumbles After BoC Expresses Reluctance to Raise Rates

Kathy Lien — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 12:35:18 -0400

Will the Growth Momentum Last?

Gary Gordon — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 12:34:23 -0400

Surprisingly Healthy Returns From Healthcare ETFs

Gary Gordon — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 12:09:43 -0400

Although I can't prove it, 90% of mutual fund managers interviewed on CNBC love energy and technology. They loved the same sectors last year.

And who could blame them? Both sectors are tied to a global economic cycle that has been expanding. What's more, mutual fund managers are paid to be bullish on stocks.

When Will the Gold Bull Market End?

Steve Saville — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 12:03:39 -0400

The short answer is: not soon. The slightly longer answer is provided herewith.

Lesson in Trading and Forecasting with TICK

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 08:43:00 -0400

I had a good question come in this evening which led to this post, clarifying one main tactic to trade (and forecast) with the NYSE TICK.

The question was along the lines of:

“Price and TICK both made a new high today but the bullish signal failed because the market reversed.”

To which I thought,

“No, I didn’t see that. I saw just the opposite – the TICK worked just exactly as it should.”

It’s a matter of perspective and context. Let’s see what I mean:

Trading the Politics of the Debt Ceiling Debate

Jared Woodard — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 08:41:23 -0400

I had a few quotes in a recent Reuters article on how to trade a government shutdown – the gist is that, while the shutdown news cycle hadn’t uniquely generated any trade opportunities, an actual shutdown was likely to do so. Of course, an agreement was reached late on Friday sufficient to avoid a shutdown, but last week’s confrontation was just a dress rehearsal anyway – the real drama will occur when the debt-ceiling limits are reached in May.

GDX and the PDQ

Bob Barnes — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 08:37:32 -0400

Frontrunning: April 12th

Tyler Durden — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 08:32:28 -0400

The Debt Bomb Is Coming Due

Larry Kudlow — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 06:03:45 -0400

White House press secretary Jay Carney said Republicans should not "play chicken with the economy." The administration wants a prompt vote to raise the federal debt ceiling quickly. Carney went on to say, "The consequences of not raising the debt ceiling would be Armageddon-like in terms of the economy."
But then again, if the federal debt limit keeps getting raised without any real new spending-limitation rules, Armageddon for the economy may come just as quickly.

Commodities Wrap: Reversal Day

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 04:51:31 -0400

Trader Bets Nearly $1 Million On Silver ETF Falling 37%

Jim Slagle — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 04:51:13 -0400

Can I Lose On Purpose?

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 04:41:54 -0400

4 Ways to Profit From Silver’s Explosive Growth

Jim Slagle — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 04:00:45 -0400

Will Higher Rates Crimp Real Estate ETFs?

Jim Slagle — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 03:54:11 -0400

Four ETFs Impacted by China's Supply and Demand of Copper

Kevin Grewal — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 03:32:24 -0400

Over the last two years, the price of copper has skyrocketed on the assumption that demand will outpace supply of the industrial metal, however, recent warning signs indicate that copper's uptrend could come to an end.

Do You Need a "Pure" Gold Miners ETFs?

Michael Johnston — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 03:22:25 -0400

As interest in achieving exposure to commodities has increased in recent years, various issuers have introduced exchange-traded products designed to access this potentially attractive asset class. While assets have flowed into exchange-traded products that offer exposure to natural resources prices through futures contracts and physical commodities, ETFs that invest in stocks of the companies engaged in the extraction and production of commodities have also become popular tools.

Two Is Enough: ETFs For Nigeria's Elections

Jim Slagle — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 03:10:09 -0400

Key Daily and Weekly Pivot Price Apple (AAPL) Traders Should be Watching

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 02:48:08 -0400

Popular stock Apple (AAPL) now faces a key "make or break" confluence level on both the daily and weekly chart that traders will find very interesting.
Let's start with the weekly chart and drill-down to find the important confluence level and thus the "IF/THEN" trading set-ups that are likely to come into play.

BlackRock Launches New Phase of ETF Price War

Jim Slagle — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 02:10:55 -0400

Profiting From China's Growth: My Portfolio of 33 ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 02:09:25 -0400

April Op-Ex Week One of the Best Historically

Rob Hanna — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 12:44:45 -0400

Readers may recall that April op-ex week has been one of the strongest op-ex weeks over the years. Below is a breakdown from 1984 - present.
The consistency has been very impressive - especially on Monday and Tuesday.

What's Up with Oil Prices?

Jim Picerno — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 12:35:11 -0400

Oil prices in New York remain north of $110 this morning--the highest in three years. What's behind the spike in prices? There's no shortage of opinion, and it's not necessarily in agreement. For some perspective, several oil analysts opine on what's happening via a fresh round of interviews,courtesy of Integrity Research Associates.
Here are some excerpts:

Forex Stories: IMF WEO, China and G20, Yellen

Kathy Lien — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 12:33:56 -0400

Eyes on the Prize

Jim Picerno — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 12:28:29 -0400

It's difficult to exaggerate the significance of estimating expected returns in the quest for long-term investment success. An obvious statement, perhaps, but the widespread evidence that many (most?) investors earn unecessarily low or even negative returns over time suggests that the focus on expected returns falls well short of practical necessity.

Metal Spreads Make More Money

Brad Zigler — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 12:26:31 -0400

Years ago, when I was a young pup on the trading floor, a battle-scarred old-school trader told me, "Spreads are for ... ," well, I can't tell you exactly what he said. Let's just say he thought spread trading was wimpish.

ETFs for a Troubled Japan

John Nyaradi — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 12:04:55 -0400

Japan was back in the news late last week as yet another earthquake hit the country in approximately the same region as the big one in March. This one was far smaller and apparently did much less damage; however, the Nikkei and global currency markets reacted strongly to the event, falling precipitously as the news came out and then rebounding sharply on Friday as damage was less severe than expected.

Earnings Projections, Support and Resistance

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 11:46:41 -0400

Earnings season kicks off in full force today with Alcoa Inc. (AA), the biggest U.S. aluminum producer, scheduled to announce first-quarter earnings after the market close today. Alcoa is the first member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to report.
While it may not feel that way on Main Street and in the housing sector, earnings at public companies are healthy. According to Bloomberg

Quiet Week for Equities

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 08:46:43 -0400
Equity markets closed marginally lower last week on less than average volume.
This follows two straight weeks of advances, and a nearly 80 point rally on the S&P 500.

For now though, we continue to trade below key resistance near the mid-February peak.

As I mentioned in the prior weekly update, this is the key resistance area we want to watch over the intermediate-term. If the bulls manage to clear this level, there is a good chance we see even higher stock prices.

Project Z & DIA

Bob Barnes — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 08:43:35 -0400

Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for Earnings

Jeff Miller — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 08:42:31 -0400

After weeks of foreign crises, speculation about the Fed, and political posturing about a government shutdown, it's time for some real data. Regular readers of "A Dash" know that when I talk about "fundamentals" I mean earnings, interest rates, and risk. I seek to measure each.

Trendline and Fibonacci Confluence in India Nifty Index

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 08:33:18 -0400

I’ve received a few requests to update current analysis on India’s “Nifty 50″ index, and indeed after a big recent rally, the index is at an interesting confluence target level traders should watch very closely in the days ahead.

Let’s start with the weekly chart and drop-down to focus on the confluence:

Book Bits: 4.9.2011

Jim Picerno — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 08:31:44 -0400

● The Big Secret for the Small Investor: A New Route to Long-Term Investment Success
By Joel Greenblatt

Frontrunning: April 11th

Tyler Durden — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 08:31:03 -0400

What it Takes to Turn the USD Around

Kathy Lien — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 05:15:09 -0400

The Dollar vs. Commodities

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 04:51:28 -0400

Debt and Shutdown Threats Are Not All that Ails the Dollar

Larry Kudlow — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 04:48:56 -0400

Washington shutdown fears are sinking the U.S. dollar, according to some news reports. Surely there's something to this, as investor confusion rises and confidence falls, and as Washington seems to be gridlocked over a few billion dollars.

Frankly, the GOP could easily declare victory and accept a $35 billion to $40 billion spending cut for the final strokes of the 2011 continuing resolution. This kind of deal would move the domestic discretionary baseline back towards 2008. No mean feat.

Three "More" Reasons To Rethink Your China Allocation

Gary Gordon — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 03:20:54 -0400

Months ago, equity market "pros" pounded China mercilessly. China real estate was the next bubble to burst. Inflation was spiraling out of control. And commodity stockpiling was proof-positive that China was dead in the dry-bulk shipping water.

The Peru ETF Conundrum

Jim Slagle — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 02:49:49 -0400

Canadian ETFs Soar in the First Quarter -BlackRock

Jim Slagle — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 02:26:16 -0400

Lesson in Trading the Intraday Dead Cat Bounce

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 01:50:05 -0400

I’m overdue for an intraday trading lesson!

Today gave us a great example of how to set-up, forecast, and trade a classic “Dead Cat Bounce” set-up on the intraday charts from a surprise or ’shock’ move that created a large impulse move.

Let’s take a moment and learn this lesson step-by-step, keeping in mind that while I’m showing this concept on the 1-min intraday chart, this concept of “Impulse, Retracement into Resistance, and Sell-off Phase” is applicable to all markets and timeframes.

Five ETFs to Play Silver's Shine

Kevin Grewal — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 01:38:44 -0400

Silver has been on a great uptrend, and as inflation fears continue to loom, the dollar remains relatively volatile and political unrest prevails around the world, the precious metal will likely continue to witness price appreciation.

Gap Fill on Very Negative Tick

Jeff Pietsch — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 01:24:01 -0400

Price is hanging in there around the pivot, but with internals so negatively sloped, it feels tenuous as support to me.

Silver ETF Rises 2% as Gold Tops $1,470/Ounce

Jim Slagle — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:44:34 -0400

Silver ETF Rises 2% as Gold Tops $1,470/Ounce

Jim Slagle — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:43:08 -0400

Gold Seasonals to Flex Muscle in Coming Weeks

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:35:54 -0400

Gold Sweeps Currencies

Brad Zigler — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:28:11 -0400

Gold made a clean sweep against the world's reserve currencies this week, particularly the yen, which posted a record-setting 4.8 percent loss. Bullion notched a new record against the greenback as well, while it rose 2.1 percent vs. the Swiss franc and 1 percent in euro. Sterling yielded 0.5 percent to gold.
In dollar-denominated assets:

CAD Rises to Fresh Highs After Employment Report

Kathy Lien — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:25:20 -0400

Are ETFs Really Safe?

Editorial Staff — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:22:58 -0400

By David Gallad, Managing Director of Casey Research
A Casey Report interview with Dr. Andrew Bogan
Dr.Andrew Bogan is a managing member of Bogan Associates, LLC in Boston, Massachusetts. He has spoken at many international investor conferences - his specialty being global equity investing - and has been interviewed on live television for CNBC's Strategy Session.

How Low is Too Low? Comparing S&P 500 Volume Over the Past Few Years

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:17:50 -0400

We've all heard it or seen it for ourselves - volume is anemic in 2011 as the stock market pushes to new recovery highs.
But always put things in perspective, meaning ask "Low volume compared to what?"
Let's take a look over the last four years on the charts of volume and then get a sense of what low volume in April 2011 compares to this same period over the last few years.

Fresh Silver Breakout Sends Price To New Three-Decade High

Tyler Durden — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 12:16:46 -0400

Is it time to start quoting that famous William Butler Yeats poem yet?

TVIX Trades One Million Shares for First Time

Bill Luby — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 08:49:22 -0400

Launched at the end of November 2010, the VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN (TVIX) has been the most popular of the volatility-based ETPs to hit the market in the past six months. Today TVIX hit a new milestone – barely halfway into the trading session – by surpassing one million shares for the first time.

Reforming the Banks

Michael Pettis — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 08:41:59 -0400

Frontrunning: April 8th

Tyler Durden — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 08:40:31 -0400

More Thoughts On Estimating Equilibrium Returns

Jim Picerno — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 08:32:33 -0400

Several readers responded to my post on estimating equilibrium returns by claiming that the concept is seriously and hopelessly flawed. But the notion that analytical techniques must be all or nothing is dangerous and more than a little impractical.

XLF/TLT Spread

Bob Barnes — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 08:31:38 -0400

USD: The Uncertainties That Lie Ahead

Kathy Lien — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 06:55:29 -0400

Higher Timeframe Lessons from the Longterm Breakout in Silver (SLV)

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 03:29:48 -0400

Picking up on yesterday's theme of "Higher Timeframe Perspectives," let's take a look at the larger structure of silver and learn a few lessons in commodity price breakouts which can travel higher than many traders think they can.
Let's start with the big monthly frame of Silver Prices:

Earthquake

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 02:28:42 -0400

Internals are still net negative, but like price, indicators are all over the map after the twenty day moving average held for SPY. How many times have we tried to break $134 now?

What's Up with Agribusiness?

Brad Zigler — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 02:25:20 -0400

With all the hoopla about metals-the hardest of hard assets-the "softer" commodities often seem to fly under investors' radar. That's too bad. Agricultural commodities-a big chunk of broad-based commodity indexes-have fared well over the past 12 months. The CRB Continuous Commodity Index-an equal-weighted and broad-based futures benchmark-has gained nearly 39 percent, while the agriculture subset of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index has risen almost 41 percent.

In Defense of the Q's

Jim Slagle — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:33:07 -0400

Japan ETF Drops After 7.4 Earthquake Hits; Local Tsunami Alert Issued

Jim Slagle — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:30:25 -0400

New Kids On The Block: Five New ETFs With Merit

Jim Slagle — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:16:43 -0400

Weekly Jobless Claims Drop By 10k

Jim Picerno — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:15:15 -0400

Weekly filings of new jobless claims continue to drift lower, and that's encouraging. But oil prices remain elevated and various global risks continue to bubble. That raises the question of whether the falling trend in new filings for unemployment benefits has legs. The recent strength in jobs creation is one reason for answering "yes," although the fall in new jobless claims is beginning to look weak again.

Another Day, Another Record High for Gold

Tyler Durden — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:14:54 -0400

Nine New Etfs Rising Above The Noise

Jim Slagle — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:08:46 -0400

ETF Flows Returning to Emerging Markets: BlackRock

Jim Slagle — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:07:26 -0400

ECB Instant Insight: Euro Lower As Trichet Fails To Commit To Additional Tightening

Kathy Lien — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:05:16 -0400

ETF Rally: No Need to Pump Up the Volume

Gary Gordon — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 11:56:05 -0400

Prevailing wisdom suggests that low-volume stock rallies tend to end with a thud. So what should investors make of the fact that the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) has traded less than the average number of shares for thirteen consecutive sessions?

Frontrunning: April 7th

Tyler Durden — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 08:40:40 -0400

Measuring Inflation

Jim Picerno — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 08:33:06 -0400

Economist Mehmet Pasaogullari at the Cleveland Fed reviews inflation from several angles. If nothing else, he offers a timely reminder that there's more than one way to skin this statistical cat. Inflation comes in a variety of flavors. But while the numbers vary, there's a common trend afoot, he reports, noting that "all measures of short-term inflation expectations we have looked at show an upward trend since last summer."

Options Insider Radio Interviews Jay Caauwe of CFE/CBOE

Bill Luby — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 08:28:42 -0400

Mark Longo and Options Insider Radio recently conducted an extensive interview with Jay Caauwe, Director of Business Development for the CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE).

VIX Stretches Band

Bob Barnes — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 08:26:27 -0400

Commodities Wrap: A Non-Event

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 05:50:14 -0400

Euro: Prospect of Rate Hike Overshadows Portguese Bailout

Kathy Lien — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 05:49:16 -0400

More Details on What a Government Shutdown Would Look Like

Tyler Durden — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 05:09:25 -0400

IVEY PMI Sends CAD To Fresh Highs

Kathy Lien — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 04:29:07 -0400

Currencies and equities have tacked on more gains this morning with the euro climbing to a 1 year high and the Canadian dollar reaching a 3 year high against the greenback. Both the Australian dollar and Swiss Franc have also performed very well and even though they are not at significant highs against the dollar, they rose to 2 year highs against the Japanese Yen.

Everything Old is New Again in Bonds

David Merkel — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 04:01:36 -0400

Unconstrained strategies for bonds are hot now with yields so low. But wait. Let’s take a step back. What do we mean by a constrained strategy?

A constrained strategy is one that limits the investments one can engage in either through:

Leaders Want a Break

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 03:59:22 -0400

No alarm bell to sound, but prudent risk management says watch the leaders. If they stop leading, it is a sign of change. Well, in my work they just stopped leading. This is very short-term, but these days the slightest ripple bears watching for its effects elsewhere.

More Domestic Oil on Hand Than Expected

Brad Zigler — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 03:56:24 -0400

Ahead of this morning's U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory report, U.S. crude oil seesawed higher on concerns about an anticipated European Central Bank interest rate hike. Prices tottered, too, as traders eyed conflicting estimates of domestic supplies.

State Street Files Application For 6 Active ETFs

Shishir Nigam — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 03:09:00 -0400

BlackRock Bullish On Prospects For Copper ETF

Jim Slagle — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 02:36:44 -0400

Weekly Quad Index Perspective at New Highs

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 02:31:44 -0400

A lot of us intraday traders hyper-focus on the intraday charts and might come to one conclusion, but if we pull the perspective back to the higher timeframes, we might have an "A-ha" moment and see the broader picture that the intraday charts can't reveal.
Namely, the Russell 2000 just touched all-time highs, the NASDAQ 100 recently broke above its 2007 "Bear Market" high, and the actual NASDAQ is mere points away from breaking through its 2007 peak.

Eaton Vance Gets Green Light For Actively Managed ETFs

Jim Slagle — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 02:24:37 -0400

Trend Line Entries: Tilted or Flat?

Jeff White — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 02:11:56 -0400

I take a lot of trend line trades, as they give me a clear indication that price is either clearing an important level, or that it's making a meaningful turn.
Recently I was asked why some of those trend lines are flat (lateral), and others are tilted. Additionally, I was asked how I determine my entries on each. Here's what I said:

Going Global: Rethinking the "Overbought" ETF Concept

Gary Gordon — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 01:54:36 -0400

For years, I've had a running "beef" with Morningstar's one-dimensional presentations of overvalued and undervalued ETFs.
Specifically, the popular web portal uses a fundamental approach for determining a fund's intrinsic worth. The method ignores history, seasonality, technical data, contrarian data, oil, interest rates, economics, current events and more.

So Much for the “New Normal”

Dock David Treece — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 01:46:53 -0400

Biotech ETFs to Rein Volatility

Jim Slagle — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 01:07:28 -0400

Newly Launched ETFs: A Risky Proposition

Jim Slagle — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 12:54:37 -0400

Big ETF Correlation Winners Prove To Be Gold & Silver

Jim Slagle — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 12:53:55 -0400

Market Vectors Russia ETF Tops $4B in AUM

Jim Slagle — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 12:40:38 -0400

SSgA Files for SSgA Conservative Allocation ETF

Jim Slagle — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 12:39:52 -0400

ETFs that Raise Red Flags

Jim Slagle — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 12:38:54 -0400

Here Comes $40 Silver

Tyler Durden — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 12:25:33 -0400

Not quite. Give it a few hours: it just hit $39.70. Then we expect the Hunt High should be taken out shortly thereafter.
And not to be left out of the party, gold just hit another all time record as well. At this point, Bernanke is officially panicking.

Should We Hold U.S. Government Bonds?

Ray Barros — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 12:12:57 -0400

If we listen to the Bond King, Bill Goss, CEO of PIMCO, responsible for over S1.2 trillion in assets, mostly in bonds, it is not a good idea to hold government bonds in spite of the assured interest rate of 3.5% pa.
Let's read and see this post by James West on :
U.S. Will Default on Its Debt
by James West on April 5, 2011
By Steve Sjuggerud and Bill Gross
April 5, 2011
Fox News"I am confident that this country will default on its debt," Bill Gross wrote this week.
Bill Gross is not some anti-American crackpot... quite the contrary.

A Brief Look at Estimating Equilibrium Risk Premiums

Jim Picerno — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 12:01:27 -0400

GBP/USD Tests Resistance as BOE Meeting Approaches

Greg Michalowski — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 08:31:57 -0400

Frontrunning: April 6th

Tyler Durden — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 08:24:40 -0400

EEM on Turn

Bob Barnes — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 08:24:03 -0400

ETF Stats for March 2011: Trading Surges 48 Percent

Ron Rowland — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 07:04:25 -0400

Thirty new ETFs and eight new ETNs arrived in March. This was the best month for new product introductions since 43 arrived in June 2008. No products were closed in March, marking the third straight month without any closures and keeping the year-to-date count at zero. The total number of listed products stood at 1,173 (1,030 ETFs and 143 ETNs) as of 3/31/11. The menu of actively-managed ETFs increased by one to 34.

USD: Fed Minutes, Implications of Government Shutdown

Kathy Lien — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 07:00:48 -0400

ETF Deathwatch for April 2011: A Vanguard Fund Makes The List

Ron Rowland — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 06:26:12 -0400

Four ETPs joined ETF Deathwatch this month, and eight came off the list. The result is a new quantity of 138, consisting of 101 ETFs and 37 ETNs. The average fund on the list has just $6.5 million in assets and has been on the market for more than 30 months.
Fifteen of the names on the list have assets of less than $2 million. Assuming an expense ratio of 0.50%, each of these is generating less than $10,000 in annual revenue for their sponsors. At some point, the money subsidizing these products will be put to better use.

Initial Thoughts on Using the iPad for Trading

Bill Luby — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 05:21:11 -0400

Thanks to all who offered up some comments on their experiences using the iPad for trading. Today I will summarize the feedback I have received from other traders, then comment on my own initial experiences with the iPad 2.
Traders express positive feelings about four iPad apps in particular. Two of the four were broker applications:

What do Bill and Warren Know that We Don’t?

Jim Slagle — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 05:20:16 -0400

Four Commercial Real Estate ETFs to Watch

Kevin Grewal — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 05:15:34 -0400

As the US economy continues to show signs of improvement and corporate America is slowly starting to increase headcount, a ray of light may shine on the commercial real estate sector supporting the iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (IYR), SPDR Dow Jones REIT (RWR), the Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ) and the iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors (ICF).

Commodities Wrap: Follow the Yen

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 04:11:49 -0400

Gold's Long-Term Outlook

Clif Droke — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 04:10:23 -0400

Let's step back for a moment and take a look at the big picture. Although the primary focus of traders should be on the short-term technical outlook for gold, silver and mining stocks, it's good to have a good idea of where the precious metals are likely headed in the 3-4 year out look.

Our primary analytical tools for discerning the longer-term trends that are likely to emerge are the yearly Kress Cycles. Fundamentals can be useful but the long-term cycles are even more important since they ultimately determine the overall direction that asset prices will take.

Rebound to R1

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 02:35:59 -0400

Internals are positively sloped, although price is finding mid-day resistance at floor trader pivot R1.

More ETFs Spring Up Chasing Hot Trends

Jim Slagle — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 01:53:01 -0400

ProShares Launches Two Inverse T-Note ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 01:29:26 -0400

Gold Options: Cranking Up the Fear

Brad Zigler — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 01:23:01 -0400

Apparently, gold traders are taking advantage of the downturn in option premiums to scoop up protective puts. Overall, the volatility premium priced into options—measured by the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (CBOE: GVZ)—has been on the skids for the past couple of weeks.

Dollar Shrugs Off Weaker ISM, Looking Forward to Fed Minutes

Kathy Lien — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 01:22:53 -0400

Japan Leads US ETF Investors' Buying Interest in March

Jim Slagle — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 01:22:50 -0400

Band of Support in Gold (GLD) at New Highs

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 12:56:48 -0400

As of this moment, Gold and GLD are threatening another poke-out to new lifetime highs this morning, so let's zoom-in to the daily chart and see the current chart picture and current levels to watch for positioning.
GLD Daily:

Low SPY Volume A Concern

Rob Hanna — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 12:34:44 -0400
SPY volume came in at the lowest level in a long while on Monday. I've shown numerous volume studies in the past suggesting price highs and volume lows are typically followed by a pullback. Below is a study from last night's letter that examines the current setup.

Will Mr. Market's Asset Allocation Suffice?

Jim Picerno — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 12:31:04 -0400

Inflation, Bank Lending, and the Employment Spiral

Steve Saville — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 12:06:20 -0400

Can inflation happen when the banks aren't lending?

Frontrunning: April 5th

Tyler Durden — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 09:19:43 -0400

The Blogger Manifesto

Jeff Miller — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 08:50:34 -0400

There is widespread blogosphere agreement on this point:

Information is good.

and the corollary

More information is better.

The logic is pretty simple. If the information is not there, no one can get it. We hunger for data, viewpoints, and alternative methods of analysis.

Gold Stalks 100 hour MA

Greg Michalowski — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 08:49:50 -0400

Strategic Briefing: Inflation

Jim Picerno — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 08:45:29 -0400

Bernanke Says Fed Must Monitor Inflation ‘Extremely Closely’
Bloomberg | Apr 5

Chart of the Week: Crude Oil and Transports

Bill Luby — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 08:44:15 -0400

With crude oil prices hovering around $108/bbl. level, it is only natural to begin wondering just what kind of impact crude prices will have on stocks.

VIX Alert

Bob Barnes — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 08:35:25 -0400

Just thought I’d put things in perspective a bit by showing the relative turn in the VIX on daily bars. The bulls have a lot going for them, mojo POMO, strong momentum and EEM and XLB (Hey!, the Qs and SPY are tracking right along too), but the VIX is ominous in its current position.

VIX and 'Flash Crash' Assets Move to Bullish Camp

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 07:07:06 -0400

Despite recent calls for a new bear market, the bulls still have a few things going for them as we kick off the week of trading:
Friday's labor report came in above expectations.
Defensive assets are lagging again.
Energy investments continue to perform well.
The Fed is still on track to complete QE2 as originally planned.

Technology ETFs Pricing in "Disappointment" This Earnings Season

Gary Gordon — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 06:53:36 -0400

Tech underperformed the broader U.S. market in Q1. And historically, the tech sector's best months don't typically arrive until Q4. Will Q2 earnings season be able to get the tech train back on track?
Probably not. The longest-term Microsoft investors with the patience to clip the 3% dividend coupon may be satisfied. However, "cap app" seekers may not be dancing in the streets.

Lowest Non-Holiday Market Volume Since 2008 Market Crash

Tyler Durden — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 06:48:13 -0400

Somewhat ironically, up until the Texas Instruments news hit, NYSE market volume today was 3.2 billion shares. This is on par with the lowest non-holiday market volume since just before the market crash in September 2008. It seems not even algos and robots care to trade this market anymore. Any banks that may have been hoping to make some commission-based profits on a mythical jump in trading this uear will have to shelve such plans and continue to rely on the only proven money-making model: massively leveraged prop trading.

USD: How Far Behind Is the Fed?

Kathy Lien — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 06:47:25 -0400

Vanguard to Challenge BlackRock’s IShares in European ETF Market

Jim Slagle — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 06:40:01 -0400

Commodities Wrap: Full Agenda

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 03:42:05 -0400

Quick Check on Market Internals

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 03:13:31 -0400

What do current market internals say about the stock market as we teeter at new recovery highs?
Let's take a quick look at the current multi-day structure and signals:
Don't panic when you see this chart - let's take it step-by-step.
First, we see the S&P 500 Index and the current stair-step rally from the March 16th low.

Gold/Silver Multiple at 37x. What Now?

Brad Zigler — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 02:01:22 -0400

We made a promise back on March 10 to check in with you when the gold/silver ratio slipped to our near-term objective of 37-to-1.
We're there now, so here we are.
If you're not familiar with the ratio, it merely represents the value of an ounce of gold denominated in ounces of silver. In London this morning, gold was fixed at $1,434.50 an ounce, silver at $37.63. Gold's price is now 37.2 times (37.2x) silver's.
The multiple hasn't been below the 38x handle since 1998.

Flat Market, Negative Divergences

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 01:57:09 -0400

I'm beginning to see some negative momentum divergences in price action. Most internals are otherwise fairly flat along with price, which is finding resistance at the VWAP. Also, you have undoubtedly noted the persistence relative weakness in Semi-land.

Seven Best ETF Performers Of Q1 (And Five Of The Worst)

Jim Slagle — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 01:34:45 -0400
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5 ETFs to Watch This Week

Jim Slagle — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 01:19:39 -0400

SSgA Puts 6 Active ETFs Into Registration

Jim Slagle — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 01:08:57 -0400

Find Your ETFs in Dangerous Places

Jim Slagle — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 01:01:57 -0400

IShares Offers New Dividend-Focused and China-Equity ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 12:51:39 -0400

March ETF Stats Part 1

Jim Slagle — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 12:47:46 -0400

Backing Up The Truck On SPY April Puts

Tyler Durden — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 12:43:59 -0400

Is that a tent in the cumulative volume chart of the SPY April 130 Puts or is some investor just happy to see the supposed end of QE2? Either way, no better time to hedge against a market collapse in the next 2 weeks than when the VIX is (as usual) dropping. Someone has purchased 249,420 lots, or a $12 MM bet the SPY will slide notably by the 15th.

Copper-Miner ETFs Extend Winning Streak

Jim Slagle — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 12:36:44 -0400

Volatility ETFs? Think Twice

Jim Slagle — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 12:35:49 -0400

On My Radar

John Nyaradi — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 12:13:04 -0400

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Seven P's from a Day of Education

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 12:02:44 -0400

Stocks Overextended from 200-Day SMA

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 11:57:12 -0400

It's back - and you'd be surprised at how few changes there were in the Top Three Extended Stocks from their 200 day SMA.
I originally posted a similar screen on March 21st and - surprise - there few changes to the top listing via theFinViz stock screener.
Let's take a look at the Top Overextended Stocks and get down to the logic of this list:

Forex: What to Expect from Central Banks

Kathy Lien — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 11:54:29 -0400

Stocks Up For Week, Approach Key Resistance

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 08:51:51 -0400
Stocks closed higher for the second week in a row, but still remain slightly below the prior bull market peak from mid-February.
This is the key resistance area we want to watch over the intermediate-term.

If the bulls manage to clear this level, there is a good chance we see even higher stock prices.

Frontrunning: April 4th

Tyler Durden — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 08:49:43 -0400

Weighing the Week Ahead: Could Energy Prices Derail the Economy?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 08:49:02 -0400

Last week's jobs report provided evidence of continuing economic improvement -- finally including employment. The biggest challenge is the recent spike in energy prices. The energy threat is undermining consumer confidence and perhaps spending. The cost of energy inputs may compete with business spending for investment. Finally, and most important for some, is the chance that energy costs will force a change in Fed policy.

Stocks Overextended from 200-day Moving Average

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 08:43:58 -0400

It’s back – and you’d be surprised at how few changes there were in the Top Three Extended Stocks from their 200 day SMA.

I originally posted a similar screen on March 21st and – surprise – there few changes to the top listing via the FinViz stock screener.

Let’s take a look at the Top Overextended Stocks and get down to the logic of this list:

Will The Surge In Corporate Profits Bring Stronger Job Growth?

Jim Picerno — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 08:35:00 -0400

Corporate profits have soared since the Great Recession was formally declared at an end as of June 2009. Employment, by contrast, has had a tepid recovery. Is this a mismatch with legs? Or is job growth finally set to impress the crowd?

Yen Highlights Dull Week

Brad Zigler — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 06:31:39 -0400

Gold treaded ground this week against reserve currencies, with the notable exception of the yen. Bullion notched a new record Thursday at an average price of ¥118,551, bettering its previous high from March 2.
Gold rose 0.3 percent against the Swiss franc and 0.1 percent vs. sterling. Bullion lost 0.2 percent to the euro. For the year, gold has risen 1.4 percent against the greenback and 3 percent vs. the yen, but lost 2.5 percent to sterling and 5.2 percent to the euro.
For dollar-denominated assets:

Why the Dollar Continues to Underperform

Kathy Lien — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 06:19:37 -0400

2 Billion Reasons TD is Kicking Itself:

Jim Slagle — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 02:41:19 -0400

Global X Sets Split On Colombia ETF

Jim Slagle — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 01:31:17 -0400

Will 1970s-Style Inflation Derail the Bull Market in Stocks?

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 12:37:21 -0400

Inflation can adversely affect corporate profits, household discretionary spending, and stock prices. Rising costs for raw materials have a dampening effect on profits. Increasing costs of food and energy begin to account for larger and larger portions of a household's disposable income. From an investment perspective, when the annual inflation rate jumped significantly between 1971 and 1974, stock market (SPY) returns eventually suffered as shown below.

Favorable Backdrop Bolsters Junior Gold Miners

Scott Wright — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 12:35:21 -0400

Semiconductor HOLDRs ETF (SMH) Badly Underperforming

Jim Slagle — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 12:26:42 -0400

How Many Dividend ETFs Are Really Needed?

Jim Slagle — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 12:25:01 -0400

Where's the Inflation?

Brad Zigler — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 12:20:31 -0400

If you're a reader of this column, you've probably noticed the daily subhead that heralds the real-time inflation rate. We keep track of the U.S. dollar's purchasing power by metering the gold and forex markets and post the day-to-day change on a rolling 365-day basis.
You may have also noted that the inflation rate has been rising. Or maybe not. If you haven't, here's this year's track record:

Monetary Inflation (365-day rate)

Dollar Soars After Non-Farm Payrolls Reinforces Need to Withdraw Stimulus

Kathy Lien — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 12:18:50 -0400

March Performance Review for the Major Asset Classes

Jim Picerno — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 12:17:34 -0400

The major asset classes generally posted respectable gains in March, although red ink spoiled the party for foreign developed-market stocks and REITs. U.S. bonds overall managed to rise, but just barely, based on the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which inched higher by less than 0.1% last month. Inflation-linked Treasuries, however, jumped 1%--the third consecutive monthly gain for TIPS and the highest return since last October, as per the Barclays U.S. Treasury TIPS Index.

Lessons in Divergences Plus Treadline Breaks in Dollar

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 12:16:42 -0400

It seems all traders seek to answer the same question: "When is this market likely to reverse?"
Newer traders tend to love "reversal" style strategies, wanting to enter as close as possible to a trend reversal in order to have the tightest stop and biggest target possible.
While no strategy can call a top or bottom all the time, one of the best ones I've found is to look for multi-swing divergences followed by a trendline break as a high probability, low-risk trigger for entry into a potential major shift in a market trend.

April's Early-Month Hot Streak

Rob Hanna — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 12:14:07 -0400
1st Day of month bullish tendencies have been well documented here and elsewhere. April is an interesting month in that not only is the 1st day typically strong, but since 1994 the first week has performed especially well. This is illustrated in the table below.

Private Sector Jobs Rise by 230k in March

Jim Picerno — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 12:13:09 -0400

Trading via iPad

Bill Luby — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 08:33:31 -0400

Unless FedEx (FDX) and Apple (AAPL) have their facts wrong, today the iPad 2 will arrive at my door step.

Since I passed on the iPad 1, this will be my first chance to play with something that I have no idea what I will ultimately end up interacting with. This could turn out to be new computer in a different form factor a toy or anything in between.

The Deflation Factor & Real Wages

Jim Picerno — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 08:25:37 -0400

Economist Bob Dieli of NoSpinForecast.com writes in to point out that the chart posted earlier today (reproduced below) that compares real (inflation-adjusted) wages with personal consumption expenditures was dramatically skewed in late-2008 and 2009 by the brief but potent round of deflation that hit the U.S. economy.

Three Foreign ETFs for the 2nd Quarter of 2011

Gary Gordon — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 07:11:20 -0400

The S&P 500 garnered as much as 5.4% in the first 3 months of 2011. What might we expect for the next quarter?

Minneapolis Fed: "Fed Funds Rate May Need To Rise 75 bps By End Of 2011"

Tyler Durden — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 06:44:52 -0400

Non-Farm Payrolls: Any Potential for Fireworks?

Kathy Lien — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 05:32:09 -0400

SPY Moving Between Round Number Levels

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 05:16:15 -0400

I strongly advocate "thinking in themes" rather than indicators and keeping your focus as much as possible on price structure.
Namely, you want to know "what is price doing and how effectively is it doing in?"
Here - let's look at the current SPY intraday world to pick up on a theme that you may have missed unless you were watching closely:

Commodities Wrap: Fresh Start, Q2 Tomorrow

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 05:12:01 -0400

Four ETFs Likely To Be Impacted By US Corn Production

Kevin Grewal — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 02:46:36 -0400

According to the latest data reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. farmers are expected to increase corn production, which could potentially influence the Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN), PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA), Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO) and PowerShares Global Agriculture (PAGG).

Resiliancy in Face of Oil

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 02:34:44 -0400

Oil is up nearly two percent, but equities are holding in well in spite of it. However, internals are leaning flat to slightly weak (cumulative tick), so I am watching key resistance at prior highs very closely.

The Case For and Against Gold ETFs

Jim Slagle — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 12:43:06 -0400

Nasdaq Cancels Trades in FocusShares ETFs

Jim Slagle — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 12:35:02 -0400

UK ETF Investors on Steep Learning Curve

Jim Slagle — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 12:33:21 -0400

Five Reasons to Consider Locking in Some Gains

David Grandey — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 12:07:01 -0400

Here are your "Into The End Of The Quarter" Trend Channel charts.
Let's move on to the 60-minute charts.

A Technical Detail on Calculating Real Wages

Jim Picerno — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 12:01:52 -0400

ECB May Not Announce Funding for Ireland Today, Mixed US Data

Kathy Lien — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 12:00:15 -0400

With the quarter coming to an end in the U.S. and the fiscal year winding down in Japan, it has been a quiet morning in the foreign exchange market. Although the U.S. dollar has weakened against most of the major currencies, it is well off earlier lows. Typically the quarter end can bring some unusual volatility in the financial markets but with Ireland scheduled to release its bank stress test results later today and U.S. non-farm payrolls due on Friday, the lack of big moves in morning are more a reflection of hesitancy than complacency.

Jobless Claims Fall By 6k

Jim Picerno — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 12:00:01 -0400

For the third week in a row, and for only the sixth time since the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, new weekly filings for jobless benefits are under the 400,000 mark on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reports. Last week, initial claims slipped by 6,000 to 388,000. The four-week moving average of claims remains well under 400k as well, continuing a trend that's been in place for over a month.

Canada GDP

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 08:37:08 -0400
Canada GDP for January comes in at 0.5% vs 0.5% in December
The YoY measure rose to 3.3% from a revised 3.3% prior
The USDCAD has moved lower on the news staying below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. The low for March (lowest level since 2007) comes in at 0.9666. This is the next key target level on the downside.

Frontrunning: March 31st

Tyler Durden — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 08:36:15 -0400

Fukushima Daiichi and ‘Event Theta’

Bill Luby — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 08:35:18 -0400

There's Always A New Recession Lurking

Jim Picerno — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 08:33:43 -0400

XLF on the Move

Bob Barnes — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 08:26:00 -0400

"Skunked": Bill Gross On How "The U.S. Will Likely Default On Its Debt"

Tyler Durden — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 07:39:46 -0400

Scottrade Launches Morningstar ETFs

Jim Slagle — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 06:28:49 -0400

Scottrade Launches Morningstar ETFs

Jim Slagle — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 06:27:24 -0400

Scottrade launches Morningstar ETFs

Jim Slagle — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 06:26:44 -0400

Euro: What to Expect from Ireland Stress Tests

Kathy Lien — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 06:06:56 -0400

The Fire Economy is Back

Jared Woodard — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 06:01:17 -0400

Three Hurdles That Persist For Active ETFs

Shishir Nigam — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 04:02:51 -0400

Actively-managed ETFs are now close to completing the 3^rd year of their existence. The oldest active ETFs on the market, a set of four funds that Invesco PowerShares launched in April 2008, will reach their 3^rd anniversary on April 11^th, 2011.

2 ETFS for Bullish Ag Market

Jim Slagle — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 04:01:49 -0400

How Going (And Staying) Long Can Work

Jim Slagle — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 03:48:48 -0400

As ETFs Reach Far And Wide, Focus Is Narrower Than Ever

Jim Slagle — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 03:17:06 -0400

Commodities Wrap: One More in Q1

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 02:57:58 -0400

Consistency Over Time

Jeff White — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 02:44:44 -0400
It’s been said that good trading is a marathon - not a sprint. I’ve said it too, because I agree. Overnight riches come to very few, but the truly successful usually earn it over time.
Think about it…it takes some time to learn this game, to get comfortable, to evolve to where you’re agile enough and have the discernment to switch styles or approaches when the situation calls for it. A newbie only does that out of desperation. In this game, experience pays.

Lots of Oil. Gasoline? Not So Much.

Brad Zigler — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 01:27:32 -0400

Once again, government data split the difference on industry and Street predictions on petroleum stockpiles. In its weekly inventory report this morning, the U.S. Energy Department said domestic crude oil supplies rose 2.9 million barrels, the 11th straight weekly buildup.
Earlier, the American Petroleum Institute estimated that stockpiles rose by 5.7 million barrels. Sell-side and independent analysts' guesses ranged between 1.5 million and 2.2 million.

India Infrastructure ETF Destined to Shine

Kevin Grewal — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 01:21:48 -0400

India's economy is growing at the second largest pace amongst the world's major nations and is likely to continue to do so as the nation is abundant with an intelligent and young labor force. Furthermore, this growth is shinning a ray of light on the nation's infrastructure sector and boosting the appeal of the EGShares India Infrastructure ETF (INXX).

Updating the Strong Correlation in 10-Year Yield and S&P 500

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 01:12:04 -0400

When we think of inter-market positive relationships, most of us think of Stocks, Crude Oil, and Gold (among other commodities) as highly positively corrlated and that's true.
What doesn't come to mind immediately is the very strong positive correlation in the 10-year Treasury Note Yield and the S&P 500.
It's an important relationship that traders take for granted, so let's take a look at the current update:

Anxiety Grows and Recovery Slows

Dock David Treece — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 01:10:14 -0400

ADP: Private Nonfarm Payrolls Rise in March

Jim Picerno — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 01:08:07 -0400

U.S. private sector employment rose by a net 201,000 (seasonally adjusted) last month, according to this morning's release of the ADP Employment Report. That's slightly down from February's 208,000 gain, although the message is clear: job growth rolls on, albeit at modest levels relative to what the economy needs to bring about a large and relatively quick drop in the still-elevated jobless rate.

Risk Appetite Sustained by Healthy U.S. Job Data

Kathy Lien — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 12:52:11 -0400

Ringing Up The Smartphone ETF

Jim Slagle — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 12:11:36 -0400

Gold ETF Options For Risk Tolerant Investors

Jim Slagle — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 12:10:34 -0400

FocusShares ETFs Make Splashy Return

Jim Slagle — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 12:09:48 -0400

Things are Not as Good as They Look

David Merkel — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 12:03:49 -0400

Before I start this evening, anyone who can point me to people with little or no emotions, or Asperger’s disease, who are good investors, could you send me a link? I am not looking for Michael Burry stories. I am looking for articles that are more general.

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Third Largest Producer Of Silver Says Production Is Now "Totally Paralyzed" Following Week-Long Strike

Tyler Durden — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 11:59:41 -0400

Daily and Weekly Trend Structure Update for Copper

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 11:55:04 -0400

I've heard a lot of chatter about Copper prices and a potential reversal lately, so let's take a quick look at simple trend structure and levels to watch on both the important weekly and daily chart frames.
First, the Weekly Chart gives the bigger perspective:

The VIX Summit: CBOE Risk Management Conference

Bill Luby — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 08:48:47 -0400

About a month ago I had an opportunity to attend the CBOE Risk Management Conference, which could easily had been called as the VIX Summit. This was the first time I attended this conference and in retrospect, I have little doubt that if VIXophiles were only to attend one conference per year, this would be the one to go to.

Webinar Lesson: Using Multiple Time Frames in Forex Trading

Greg Michalowski — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 08:46:34 -0400

Lesson 12 will take place on Thursday at 4 PM ET. The topic will be ” Using Multiple Time Frames in your Forex Trading” .

Following the Herd

Bob Barnes — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 08:43:52 -0400

Treasury Market's Inflation Forecast: 2.5%

Jim Picerno — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 08:43:01 -0400

The Treasury market's inflation forecast has recently risen to the levels that prevailed before Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008, which triggered a financial crisis and fears of a deflationary spiral. Using the yield spread between the nominal and inflation-indexed 10-year Treasuries, the market's outlook has come full circle since the dark days of late-2008.

As of yesterday, 10-year Treasuries expect inflation on the order of roughly 2.5% in the years ahead. The question is whether that outlook will remain stable?

Income Producing ETFs Dominate the "New Highs" List

Gary Gordon — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 06:49:36 -0400

Window-dressing money managers need to show that they are "long" the energy sector in their quarterly reports. Not surprisingly, there are scores of Energy Services ETFs and Energy Exploration ETFs on the "New Highs" List. You'll find:
Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH)
iShares DJ Oil Equipment & Services (IEZ)
PowerShares Dynamic Oil Services (PXJ)
SPDR S&P Oil &Gas Equip/Services (XES)
iShares DJ Energy (IYE)
SPDR S&P Select Energy (XLE)

Commodities Wrap: Mixed Signals

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 06:47:52 -0400

Another Bubble that Breaks the World?

Clif Droke — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 06:23:57 -0400

In 1931 a financial writer named Garet Garrett wrote the now classic book, "A Bubble That Broke the World." Garrett's contention was that the Great Crash of 1929 was made possible by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Eighty years later another Fed-induced crisis is forming which, if allowed to continue, threatens to again break the back of the U.S. economy.

Powerful Bounce off the 5-DMA

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 03:15:19 -0400

Price is finding resistance at R1, but this has been an impressive move precisely off the magenta five-day moving average (say SPY $130.50). This was also very near the fifty-day, reflecting a technical reflexive note to the move.

Inflation Speaks Many Languages

Brad Zigler — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 03:05:14 -0400

The usual chorus of groans and catcalls accompanied the recent release of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index data. The groans were engendered by the 2.1 percent annual hike in prices through February. The catcalls? Well, that's a story for another column.
Suffice it to say that the CPI rose at an accelerated pace in February, spurred by hikes in food and fuel costs.

Doug Kass Shorting Nasdaq ETF (QQQ)

Jim Slagle — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 01:17:20 -0400

What ETF Investors May Take From Harvard’s Endowment Strategy

Jim Slagle — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 01:10:22 -0400

Japan ETFs: Still Room to Run?

Jim Slagle — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 12:48:04 -0400

ETF To Short Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Debuts

Jim Slagle — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 12:46:58 -0400

US Housing Recession Rolls On

Jim Slagle — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 12:38:11 -0400

January Case Shiller Data Atrocious: "At Worst, The Feared Double-Dip Recession May Be Materializing"

Tyler Durden — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 12:29:30 -0400

Three More Reasons Why You Should Select the Malaysia ETF

Gary Gordon — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 12:26:33 -0400

In August of 2009, I explained why iShares MSCI Malaysia (EWM) was a veritable bargain in the Emerging Market ETF arena. (Review "A Different Slice of the EM Pie.")

Emotions as Numbers

Derek Hernquist — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 12:21:48 -0400

Bulls Get Benefit of Doubt - End of QE2 Concerning

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 12:17:08 -0400

James Bullard, President of the Fed's St. Louis Bank, is speaking in Prague today. According toBloomberg:

Long-Term Bearish on China and the US

Steve Saville — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 12:14:57 -0400

When it comes to their outlooks for China's economy, most analysts fall into one of two groups. The first group is outright bullish on China's prospects over all time frames, while the other is very optimistic on a long-term basis but is concerned about the potential for a painful short- and/or intermediate-term 'correction'. In other words, most analysts are long-term bullish.

Expiring Monthly: March Issue Recap

Bill Luby — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 08:53:20 -0400

Just a quick reminder that as Expiring Monthly: The Option Traders Journal publishes on the Monday following options expiration, the March issue was published a week ago today and is (still) available for subscribers to download.

ECB Makuch: Rate Hike in April Not Certain, but Probable

Greg Michalowski — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 08:52:05 -0400

Situation in Portugal is serious but complicated and does pose a risk of contagion
Rate increase is highly probable but NOT certain
ECB vigilant on inflation

The comment is a bit ambiguous with “probable” but “not certain” used to describe the rate potential in April. The ECB meets on April 7th and the expectation from surveyed results is for a tightening of 25 basis points.

Consumer Spending & Income Rise In February As Inflation Bubbles

Jim Picerno — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 08:50:50 -0400

Personal income and spending rose again last month, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports, although the numbers are tainted somewhat by the fact that inflation ticked up as well.

Meantime, there’s no denying the trend in spending and income. Personal consumption expenditures rose for the eighth consecutive month, posting their biggest rise in February since last October. Disposable personal income advanced for five straight months through February.

Frontrunning: March 29th

Tyler Durden — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 08:47:22 -0400

DBC Caution Pays Off

Bob Barnes — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 08:46:28 -0400

Frontier Market ETFs 101

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 07:06:00 -0400

Black Swans Everywhere

John Nyaradi — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 05:26:05 -0400

Black swans seem everywhere as we have a nuclear accident in Japan, war and revolutions in the Middle East, demonstrations in Britain, and a looming U.S. Government shut down on April 8th.
At Wall Street Sector Selector, we remain in the defensive mode, as black swans fly across the globe.
On My Radar
Another volatile week is now in the books and yet another lies ahead.

Commodities Wrap: Dollar Rally to Come

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 05:22:20 -0400

Markets Push Forward, Not out of the Woods

Bob Lang — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 05:14:49 -0400

Oil's Not Scary Anymore. Maybe.

Brad Zigler — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 04:46:22 -0400

Hey! It's safe to go back into the oil market. Well, safer anyway.
Don't take it from me. It's the option market or, rather, option market makers, that says so. The cost of protective puts peaked on March 4, along with the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (CBOE: OVX). OVX, like its older sibling, the VIX, is a "fear index" that distills the option premiums into a projection of near-term market volatility.
Oil Put Index Vs. Oil Volatility Index

Gap Fill to Pivot

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 04:45:00 -0400

Internals are otherwise suggestive of a range-day.

Consumer Spending & Income Rise in February as Inflation Bubbles

Jim Picerno — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 01:21:07 -0400

Personal income and spending rose again last month, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports, although the numbers are tainted somewhat by the fact that inflation ticked up as well.
Meantime, there's no denying the trend in spending and income. Personal consumption expenditures rose for the eighth consecutive month, posting their biggest rise in February since last October. Disposable personal income advanced for five straight months through February.

Checking on S&P 500 Diverging Breadth and Current Structure

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 12:34:23 -0400

What is the current "hidden" picture of market strength or weakness from the perspective of Market Breadth? Not good, for one.
Let's take a look at NYSE Market Breadth in terms of the current snap-rally and what levels are important to watch.
First, the bigger "breadth" picture from the 30-min chart:

Janus Active ETFs Would Be Transparent

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 12:11:08 -0400

ETF Volumes Drop Despite Equity Rebound

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 12:07:52 -0400

2 Direct ETF Plays For Wind Technology

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 12:04:34 -0400

A New Twist on the Agriculture ETF

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 12:01:37 -0400

VXO Stretch Now So Extreme It Is Suggesting A Pullback

Rob Hanna — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 11:56:47 -0400

In last Wednesday’s blog I showed a study that the quick move from overbought to oversold in the VIX appeared suggestive of further upside.

But now we find ourselves in a situation where the VXO got extremely stretched has remained so for three days in a row. I decided to take a look at other times where this kind of extended stretch had occurred.

Stocks Bounce Back, But Is The Bottom In?

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 08:36:05 -0400
Was last week's high volume sell off a capitulation bottom?
Well, stocks bounced back in stunning fashion as investors shrugged off the events in Japan, and the unfolding crisis in the middle east.

The NASDAQ soared, rising nearly 3.8% for the week.

For the month of March, the S&P 500 is currently lower by about 1%, and the NASDAQ is down roughly 1.4%.

Housing Will Recover, But When?

Jim Picerno — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 08:29:00 -0400

What passes for optimism on the housing market these days is a pale reflection of the glory days of five years ago. "Housing is dead," writes MarketWatch's Rex Nutting. "There is no doubt about that. Housing is as dead as a door nail." The good news, such as it is, is that "housing is just too small to do any real damage to the economy any more," he adds. Perhaps, but housing's not likely to help any time soon either.

Quad Stock Index Update

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 08:24:44 -0400

There are two main facts to know about the current chart structure for the four main US Stock Market indexes:

First, ALL indexes have broken above a critical trendline and the 20/50 day EMAs

Second, Volume has declined steadily as price rallied above these key levels.

Let’s see how these two facts played out in the four main indexes and what quick levels to reference in the week ahead.

First, the Dow Jones:

Lazy Man Update

Bob Barnes — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 08:20:08 -0400

USD: Fed Speak and Payrolls

Kathy Lien — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 06:03:35 -0400

Friedman: Turkey And Poland Are Promising

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 03:34:53 -0400

Global X Joins Auto ETF Race

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 02:58:33 -0400

Silver ETF Remains On Record-Setting Pace; Gold Falls

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 02:38:08 -0400

Don’t Pay Extra For Egyptian And Japanese ETFs

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 02:28:06 -0400

Inflation Heats Up

Brad Zigler — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 02:18:24 -0400

Gold rebounded against the world's reserve currencies this week. Like last week, the yen stood out, but this time it was notable for its retreat. After coordinated central bank intervention, the Japanese currency gave up 5.5 percent to bullion. The Swiss franc retraced most of last week's gain and ceded 3.7 percent to gold. Sterling shed 2.1 percent and the euro slipped 1.1 percent.
Inflationary pressures stepped up on the U.S. currency- and dollar-denominated assets:

Resolving Timeframe Conflict

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 12:43:59 -0400

"Live in the now, man!" Garth Algar
Writing helps me work through the endless supply of information and crystallize it into ideas more likely to remain etched in memory. This is mostly for my benefit, but I enjoy the feedback and clarity that comes from those who take the time to read my ramblings.

PowerShares-SPDR Ticker Tangle Now History

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 12:38:05 -0400

ETF Plays For Research In Motion Earnings/Guidance

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 12:35:30 -0400

Gold Miner ETFs: Breaking Down All The Options

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 12:33:20 -0400

SPY, QQQs Register Big Outflows

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 12:31:37 -0400

A Black Swan ETF?

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 12:13:28 -0400

Euro Extends Losses After LCH Rejects Portuguese Bonds, No Help From EU Summit Draft

Kathy Lien — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 11:57:22 -0400

The foreign exchange market is relatively quiet this morning with the U.S. dollar trading higher against European currencies and lower against the comm dolars. Fourth quarter GDP growth was revised higher from 2.8 to 3.1 percent after a smaller drop in gross private investment. Exports, personal and government consumption was revised lower. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is due for release later this morning but being a final number, the focus should remain on Europe.

Q4 GDP Growth Revised Up to 3.1% Pace

Jim Picerno — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 11:53:08 -0400

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.1% real annual rate in last year's fourth-quarter, the government reports in its third and final estimate for Q4 GDP. That's up from the previously reported 2.8% pace. For all of last year, the economy expanded by 2.9%.

Seven ETFs Hitting Brand New 52-Week Highs

Gary Gordon — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 11:47:05 -0400

There are some things that are very easy to understand. For instance, if Anadarko, Devon and Noble are all hitting 52 week highs on the NYSE, then there's a pretty good chance that iShares DJ Oil & Gas Exploration/Production (IEO) will appear on the "New High List" for exchange-traded funds.

Stepping Inside the Gold Bull Trap

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 08:34:33 -0400

Wow – what a turn-around intraday in gold prices! Buyers who purchased gold or the GLD ETF on the breakout to new highs in the morning session were cursed with a mid-day reversal that triggered a Bull Trap that created an ominous looking Bearish Engulfing Candle on the daily chart.

Let’s take a moment to look at the daily chart then step inside today’s intraday action to see what went wrong and learn a lesson in protection when the obvious play becomes a vicious trap.

First, the bigger picture from the Daily Chart:

The GLD/ FXE Spread

Bob Barnes — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 08:27:27 -0400

Strategic Briefing: Inflation & Oil Prices

Jim Picerno — Fri, 25 Mar 2011 08:24:58 -0400

Another year of living dangerously
The Economist | Mar 24

iShares Wins SEC Active-ETF Approval

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 06:36:44 -0400

Coeur d'Alene CEO Sees Gold At $1,500, Silver In Mid-$40s "This Year"

Tyler Durden — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 05:39:32 -0400

Five Emerging Markets ETFs For Q2 And Beyond

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 05:08:17 -0400

Broken Trendlines and Lower Targets for the Dollar Index

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 04:29:35 -0400
We've been watching the Dollar Index decline after it broke a critical intermediate term rising trendline at the $77 index level.
With the Dollar under that key point, what does the higher timeframes say and what future simple targets come into play should the index continue declining under the key support it sits on now?
Let's start with the Monthly Chart and work our way down:

Gold/Silver Ratio Stuck

Brad Zigler — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 03:07:22 -0400

A couple of weeks ago, we said we'd get back to you when the gold/silver ratio hit a 37-to-1 objective.
Well, it hasn't happened yet. I mean, the ratio-basis London spot-has dipped. On March 10, the date our feature was published, gold's price multiple (PM) was 40.5x. When the metals' prices were fixed on March 23, the multiple had slid to a new low of 39.2x.

Gold/Silver Multiple

Transportation ETFs: Good News Already Priced In?

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 01:30:43 -0400

Direxion Debuts Short Aggregate Bond, Treasury ETF

Gary Gordon — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 01:10:41 -0400

Direxion, one of the largest issuers of 2x and 3x leveraged ETFs, announced the launch of three products offering daily inverse exposure to fixed income benchmarks. The new -1x Direxion ETFs include:
Total Bond Market Bear 1x Shares (SAGG)

Are Silver ETFs Shining Too Brightly?

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:55:40 -0400

ETF Fund Flows: CU’s Assets Double

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:47:44 -0400

BlackRock Gets Green Light To Launch Actively Managed ETFs

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:46:14 -0400

Why 'Buy Japan' Is Now a Joke

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:45:05 -0400

Emerging Global Advisors Seeks Nod for 10 ETFs

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:37:57 -0400

After Record Inflows, Options Turn Negative on Japan ETFs

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:34:58 -0400

Dollar Cremation Resumes

Tyler Durden — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:22:53 -0400

Just as Bob Pisani was getting giddy that for probably the second time in 2011 the dollar went up in concert with the Russell 2000, here comes reality washing over the true value of the world's most hated reserve currency, and forcing the DXY to drop to yesterday's lows, which incidentally are just pennies away from multi year lows. Should the Yen resume its strength forcing the BOJ et G7 to intervene again (just as ineffectively), look for the DXY to promptly take out all lows as the Bernank once again goes to the front of the currency devaluation race.

Dollar Unfazed by Weaker Data, Focused on Europe

Kathy Lien — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:10:07 -0400

This morning's U.S. economic reports elicited little reaction from a market that is focused on regional developments and firm commodity prices. The dollar is trading unchanged to lower against most of the major currencies with the exception of the British pound which was hit hard by weaker retail sales. The latest U.S. economic data shows continued softness in the U.S. economy. There is no question that the recovery is underway but the pace has been sluggish due to setbacks in various industries.

Jobless Claims Fall Again. Will Rising Energy Prices Slow or Derail the Trend?

Jim Picerno — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:06:32 -0400

New jobless claims fell again last week, dropping by a seasonally adjusted 5,000 to 382,000, the Labor Department reports. The widely watched four-week moving average slipped as well, retreating to its lowest level in two-and-a-half years. It's clear that new filings are trending lower once more, if slowly. But the ongoing strength in the oil market raises the question of whether higher energy prices are a threat?

Durable Goods Unexpectedly Fall in February

Jim Picerno — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 12:04:53 -0400

Orders for durable goods, a leading indicator of economic activity, fell 0.9% last month on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Census Bureau reports.The decrease follows a strong 3.6% gain in January. Economists were expecting a gain. Monthly data is volatile, however, and so it's not clear if there's something more ominous afoot.

Is Loan Growth in China Slowing?

Michael Pettis — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 08:50:09 -0400

Dallas Traders Expo: Register Early to Attend in June

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 08:47:25 -0400

It’ll be here before we know it!

The International Traders Expo is expanding its summer meeting in June to a new city this year - Dallas, TX – and there’s no time like the present to register early for the next big Expo event.

Juncker: Portugal Needs to Do its Homework

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 08:45:28 -0400

Meanwhile, EU President HermanVan Rompuy is quoted as saying Europe economic problems are not over.

Strategic Briefing: Portugal and the Next Euro Crisis

Jim Picerno — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 08:42:19 -0400

Portugal in crisis after prime minister resigns over austerity measures
Guardian | Mar 23
Portuguese prime minister José Sócrates has said he has submitted his resignation to the president after parliament rejected his minority Socialist government's latest austerity measures. The loss of the vote "has taken away from the government all conditions to govern," Sócrates said. It brings the country closer to needing a bailout.

What You Need to Know About Employment Data

Jeff Miller — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 08:38:27 -0400

The widely held outlook about employment is both dismal and bearish. The popular viewpoint is that there is almost no job creation. That people lose their jobs and remain on unemployment forever, or until benefits run out. That there is a small, stagnant, and unchanging pool of job openings.

While the employment situation remains poor, this consensus view, is so exaggerated that it can cloud our ability to understand and to forecast. This leads everyone to be too pessimistic about the prospects for economic growth and personal consumption.

SLV at New High

Bob Barnes — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 08:34:38 -0400

New Home Sales Tumble in February

Jim Picerno — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 05:00:16 -0400

Existing home sales retreated again last month, falling by nearly 17% in February on an annualized basis, the Census Bureau reports. That’s the biggest monthly fall since last May.

Although all regions of the country suffered declines, the heavily populated Northeast section of the U.S. posted the steepest drop with a 57% tumble.

Successful Retest of 5-DMA/ Resist at Prior Close?

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 03:02:19 -0400

"Feels" like a squeeze at the 5-day short exit to me (see dashed magenta line).

The More Things Change, The More They Stay the Same

Editorial Staff — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 01:36:26 -0400

MACRO TIDES
Macro Factors and their impact on Monetary Policy, the Economy, and Financial Markets

Misdefining Risk Misleads Investors

Dock David Treece — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 01:20:18 -0400

The concept of risk and how it is defined by investors and advisors is something that we've discussed before, and which we feel warrants periodic reminders.

Over time the definition of "risk" has changed, thanks mostly to academics who teach finances classes and venerable money managers with advanced degrees (many of whom are now broke). The commonly accepted definition of risk among investors and advisors has essentially been substituted with the definition of volatility.

Van Eck Resumes Creation Orders for Market Vectors Egypt Index

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 01:07:40 -0400

Doug Kass Shorting Broaders ETFs (IWM, SPY, QQQ)

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:52:54 -0400

Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) Advantages Over SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD)

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:51:27 -0400

IndexIQ Launches Global Agribusiness Small Cap ETF (CROP)

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:50:40 -0400

Errors of Judgment a Trader Can Make

Ray Barros — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:46:23 -0400

In the chapter I am writing for Wiley, I am writing about how Barros Swings help define the trend of trader’s timeframe and how the Swings help answer the question: continuation or change?

If you think about it, there are three types of errors a trader can make:

Failing to correctly define the current trend, it’s structure and whether the trend is likely to continue or change.
Entering too early or too late. Both subject the trader to financial stress.
Incorrect position sizing.

Recovery Hopes Surge On Record New Home Sales

Tyler Durden — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:39:29 -0400

...Just the wrong kind of record. At just 250,000, this was the lowest annualized new home sales number ever. So on one hand you have a TV clown tell you the housing market bottomed in August 2008, on the other you have a pathological tax cheat Welcoming all to the Recovery, and on the mutated third hand (thank you Fukushima), reality continues to indicate that the biggest depression in history persists without abating.

ETF Ticker Shakeup: QQQQ Now QQQ

Michael Johnston — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:31:20 -0400

One of the largest and most popular U.S.-listed ETFs underwent a change of its trading symbol on Wednesday, as thePowerShares QQQ, which previously traded under the symbol "QQQQ" on the NASDAQ Exchange, dropped a letter to make its ticker consistent with the fund name. The new ETF will trade under the ticker QQQ; the exchange and all other fund attributes will remain the same.

Crude Inventories at 5-Month High

Brad Zigler — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:28:30 -0400

U.S. crude oil futures edged higher overnight as concerns about Mideast oil supplies continued to worry traders.
Ahead of this morning's weekly Energy Department inventory report, the industry-supported American Petroleum Institute estimated there'd be a 970,000-barrel hike in domestic oil stores. Analysts, meantime, forecast crude stocks rising by 1.5 million to 2.0 million barrels.

New Small-Cap Agribusiness ETF Falls In-Line With MOO

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:23:55 -0400

For ETFs, Flows Into Japan Could Be an Ominous Sign

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:23:20 -0400

When The VIX Moves From Overbought to Oversold in a Week

Rob Hanna — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:20:55 -0400
The sharp drop in the market and then subsequent sharp rebound was accompanied by strong VIX movements in the opposite directions. Moving from a position where the VIX is stretched above the 10ma to one where it is stretched below the 10ma in a short period of time is quite rare. It is something I last showed on the blog on 10/9/09. I have updated that study below.

Schwab Sets Plan To Use ETFs In 401(k)s

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:10:15 -0400

Forex Risk Appetite Hindered by New Homes Sales, UK Budget and Portgual

Kathy Lien — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:03:45 -0400

Gold, Silver And Oil as Market Yet to Price in Armageddon

Tyler Durden — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 12:03:23 -0400

Judging by the incomprehensible action in both WTI and gold, both of which are surging, it appears the stock market may not have priced in the full impact of Bernanke's Put on the Armageddon. And after all, what disaster, man made or otherwise, can not be circumvented through the printing of a few [...]illion in new linen-cotton forms of monetary exchange.
Gold

Osborne Cuts Corporate Taxes

Greg Michalowski — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 09:03:39 -0400

Will adjust bank levy to offset the corporate tax cut.

The GBPUSD is subject to event risk. The price is testing the technical support at the 1.6233 area. A break of which will open the pair up to further selling pressure.

Beware the Bond Pundits!

Jeff Miller — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 08:59:54 -0400

Beware the bond pundits. They seem to have an agenda. It does not include profits for the average investor.

I am trying hard not to go into rant mode. Mrs. OldProf sternly instructed that I could not say "ignorant, clueless bozos." In this redacted version you get a milder story. Many widely-esteemed bond market pundits have a viewpoint that we regard as misguided, and costly to equity investors. Here is why.

The Background

Strategic Briefing: High Yield Bonds

Jim Picerno — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 08:38:52 -0400

Junk Bonds: What to Do Now
The Wall Street Journal | Mar 22

DBC, DBC, DBC

Bob Barnes — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 08:31:08 -0400

Emerging Market ETFs Reclaiming a Higher Road (BRIC by BRIC)

Gary Gordon — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 05:41:35 -0400

In my 3/18/2011 feature, “Why Russia ETFs Are Receiving So Much Love,” I discussed several reasons for the recent investment success. They included: (1) non-OPEC oil and gas exposure during Middle East rebellions, (2) large weighting in iron/steel for Japan’s rebuilding, and (3) substantial GDP contribution by Russia to global growth.

Commodities Wrap: Crude Oil Held 20-Day MA

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 05:31:50 -0400

Worrying About Inflation

Jim Picerno — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 05:22:14 -0400

A Quick Look at the Current Intraday TICK Compression

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 02:00:58 -0400

As of this moment, the NYSE intraday TICK is deeply compressing relative to the prior sessions, and to historical norms.

Why is this important? Compression highlights “no activity” and “little opportunity” in the intraday market on the one hand, and on the other, it suggests that an expansionary move – a sharp rise in volatility – is likely to follow tight compression periods (similar to the “NR-7″ concept).

Let’s take a look at the current multi-day TICK Index to see what I mean:

PIMCO’s ETF Hits $1 Billion With Active Success

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 01:38:55 -0400

WTI/Brent: The Man in the Mirror

Brad Zigler — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 01:08:15 -0400

It's Tuesday. Oil traders' ears are swiveling as they try to pick up the faint sounds that will clue them in to petroleum's price momentum. Tomorrow, the U.S. Energy Department releases its weekly inventory report, which will put an end to analysts' and industry guesswork about short-term supply fluctuations. In the meantime, traders will jockey their positions to avoid being unpleasantly surprised by the government data.

Transportation ETFs: Good News Already Priced In?

Gary Gordon — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 12:54:47 -0400

In March of 2008, I talked about Warren Buffett’s increasing financial interest in transportation companies like Burlington Northern Santa Fe. It served as a “lead-in” to the notion that the iShares DJ Transportation Index Fund (IYT) could tell you when the U.S. economy might heal.

Lower Highs Off Pivot

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 12:46:45 -0400

Downside internals are showing the edge thus far…

Japan and the T-Bond: U.S. Treasury Implications

Steve Saville — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 12:44:17 -0400

The Japanese government is the third largest holder of US treasuries (behind the Chinese government and the US Federal Reserve). Should we therefore expect some downward pressure on T-Bonds stemming from the Japanese government's efforts to finance earthquake-related reconstruction? In other words, is the government of Japan likely to become a seller of T-Bonds in the near future due to its need to raise money for the re-building effort?

A Nifty Idea For A Safe Emerging Market?

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 12:41:41 -0400

Is MINT Growing Up?

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 12:40:17 -0400

Markets and ETFs Pause After Rally

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 12:39:28 -0400

Timeframes Colliding

Derek Hernquist — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 12:24:37 -0400

IndexIQ Debuts Small-Cap Agribusiness ETF

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 12:12:28 -0400

Big Miss for Canadian Retail Sales

Kathy Lien — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 11:51:31 -0400

Frontrunning: March 22nd

Tyler Durden — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 08:22:09 -0400

End the Fed? And Replace it With What?

Jim Picerno — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 08:17:14 -0400

The celebrated investor Jim Rogers thinks we should abolish the Federal Reserve. Asked in an interview yesterday what he'd do as Fed chairman, he replied: "I'd shut it down."

SMH Tops 5 Day Trend

Bob Barnes — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 08:15:38 -0400

The Five Stocks Most Overextended from 200d SMA

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 05:56:43 -0400

I’ve written in the past about a simple screener tool that highlights the five most overextended stocks from their 200 day Simple Moving Average and how you can use the data in different ways.

Let’s start with the 5 top overextended stocks as of March 21st and then see what strategies may be used:

USD: A Sign that the Fed Could End QE?

Kathy Lien — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 05:34:12 -0400

Is Palladium Overdone?

Brad Zigler — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 05:32:09 -0400

Palladium has given traders and investors quite a ride over the past year—mostly on the long side. The launch of the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSE Arca: PALL) put a bid on the white metal's already-tight supplies last year.
Palladium prices have risen 53 percent in the last 12 months, but that counts a month-long slump that dragged prices down to the $730 level from an $862 peak.
The sell-off in PALL shares started at $85 and recently ended at $72.

Examining VIX ETF Performance During a Sell-Off

Michael Johnston — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 04:21:18 -0400

Commodities Wrap: Cutting Losses

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 04:10:53 -0400

Why Deflation Will Torpedo the Economic Recovery

Clif Droke — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 03:47:52 -0400

The rising price of food and fuel is garnering more and more attention in the economic news headlines. There's a good reason for this since a continued increase in the oil price could easily upset the economic recovery and send the U.S. economy tumbling back into recession. It could also have an adverse impact on the financial market and not surprisingly, analysts are already beginning to draw parallels between today's stock market and the one of 2008, which was hurt by (among other things) a record high oil price.

Gap to Major Resistance?

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 01:19:00 -0400

SPY $130, previously daily bar support, must now be watched as potential major resistance from below after this nice three day rally. Fifty cents higher also represents intermediate moving average levels. Meanwhile, price is running horizontally along Floor Trader Pivot R2 above the VWAP. The more time we spend here, the less meaningful this level is and internals otherwise remain very strong….

Raining Cats and Dogs

John Nyaradi — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 12:12:48 -0400

Dissecting ETFs In The Frontier Space

Jim Slagle — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 12:12:19 -0400

Energy, Materials, and Industrials Are Well Positioned

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 12:09:41 -0400

Doug Kass Negative On Today's Up-Day

Jim Slagle — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 12:09:15 -0400

One of the Best Short-Sell Patterns

David Grandey — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 12:08:56 -0400

In the stock market there are only 3 things you need to know
Uptrends and how to trade them
Downtrends and how to trade them
Change In Trends and how to identify them
After all if you are long at a top you need to know when to get out right? Call them your what to watch out for if you are long and your what to watch for if looking to short patterns.

ETFs Surge On Dealmaking, Easing Geopolitical Worries

Jim Slagle — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 12:07:05 -0400

Why A Second Gold ETF From Global X?

Jim Slagle — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 12:05:58 -0400

WisdomTree ETF Offers Asian Bond Exposure

Jim Slagle — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 12:04:14 -0400

New CBOE Volatility Indexes Gauge ETF Risk

Jim Slagle — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 12:03:28 -0400

Forex: Monday Morning Madness, Wild Swings for Euro

Kathy Lien — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 11:54:52 -0400

What Goes Up...

Jim Picerno — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 11:52:47 -0400

Tech Slip Crushes NASDAQ

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 08:39:10 -0400
Equity markets continued their decline last week on renewed fears of a global slowdown.
One again, the NASDAQ led the way to the downside, declining about 2.7% for the week.

Volume was very heavy for the week, rising to a level we haven't seen since mid-2010.

For the month of March, the S&P 500 is currently lower by about 3.6%, and the NASDAQ is down roughly 5%.

Lower Weekly Reference Levels for Gold, SP500, and Oil

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 08:34:02 -0400

How far will the current pullback in the “Risk-On” markets last? Has the pullback already ended and are we going to start marching on to new recovery highs?

Let’s take a look at the current weekly chart picture in the S&P 500, Gold, and Oil to see weekly lower support reference levels should these retracements be deeper than what we saw last week.

First, the S&P 500:

Weighing the Week Ahead: Just the Facts

Jeff Miller — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 08:32:06 -0400

When the stories are frightening and the news flow is fast and furious, what do you do?

Many who are traders act immediately when a headline hits the tape. Check out this daily chart from Clusterstock.

Frontrunning: March 21st

Tyler Durden — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 08:26:50 -0400

The Limits Of The Yale Model

Jim Picerno — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 08:26:17 -0400

GLD / GDX Spread Eases

Bob Barnes — Mon, 21 Mar 2011 08:20:08 -0400

Forex: Is G7 Intervention Enough?

Kathy Lien — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 05:23:13 -0400

Commodities Wrap: Booking Profits

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 05:23:09 -0400

The 4 Structures of ETFs

Kevin Grewal — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 03:24:02 -0400

Gold Clubbed by Currencies

Brad Zigler — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 03:19:14 -0400

Bullion ceded ground to reserve currencies this week, most especially the yen. The Japanese currency jumped 6.4 percent higher vs. gold, while the Swiss franc climbed 4.9 percent and the euro gained 2.6 percent. Sterling rose 1.3 percent.
This week, the U.S. market focused on reports of sharp price rises at the retail and wholesale levels. The Consumer Price Index climbed 2.1 percent in the past 12 months, while the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods shot up 5.6 percent. Both indexes notched their largest hikes in a year.

Walking Down the 5-DMA

Jeff Pietsch — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 03:13:05 -0400

CBI Reaches 10 for 1st Time Since July 2010 - Signals a Bounce

Rob Hanna — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 12:47:24 -0400

Despite the market move higher on Thursday the Quantifiable Edges Capitulative Breadth Indicator (CBI) rose up to 10. The CBI is basically a measure of the number of capitulative selling triggers that are active among S&P 100 stocks at any one time.  Ten is a level I have discussed numerous times in the past. Readings this high often lead to short-term rallies. Below is a strrategy I've shown before that utiilizes the CBI. It looks at entering the SPX when it reaches 10 or higher and then exiting when it returns to 3 or lower.

Silver in SPX Selloffs

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 12:34:39 -0400

Morgan Stanley Debuts High Yield MLP ETN

Michael Johnston — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 12:31:38 -0400

Investment banking giant Morgan Stanley made its first foray into the exchange-traded product world this week, rolling out an ETN offering exposure to the MLP sector. The Cushing MLP High Income Index ETN (MLPY) will offer exposure to a criteria-weighted index tracking the performance of 30 MLPs that hold energy infrastructure and related shipping assets in North America. The effective weighting strategy results in approximately equal allocations to many of the underlying holdings; as of March 1, ten different securities made up between 4.85% and 5.16% of the related index.

Emerging Global Plans Sector-Specific India ETFs

Michael Johnston — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 12:28:35 -0400

Emerging Global Advisors, the only ETF issuer focusing exclusively on emerging markets, has filed details on a suite of products that would offer more targeted exposure to India's stock market. In a recent SEC filing, the firm detailed plans for nine ETFs focusing on specific sectors of the Indian economy:
EG Shares India Consumer ETF
EG Shares India Financials ETF
EG Shares India Health Care ETF
EG Shares India Telecom ETF
EG Shares India Industrials ETF
EG Shares India Technology ETF

Price Clues I'm Watching

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 12:05:37 -0400

Analyzing price requires more than just knowing the direction and distance traveled; an analysis of how we got there is just as important. Following are important inputs that we can make objective with some simple tracking:

Forex Joint Intervention: A One Hit Wonder?

Kathy Lien — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 11:58:24 -0400

Google (GOOG) Tests Critical Daily Confluence Support

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 11:56:53 -0400

I've been watching this level for a few days now and so far, a critical daily triple-confluence support level in Google (GOOG) is holding on cue.
Let's take a quick look at this level and the implications if the level holds... or cracks.

Strategic Briefing: Stagflation Risk

Jim Picerno — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 08:30:58 -0400

Supply Disruptions Pose Threat of Stagflation
The Wall Street Journal | Mar 17

From Fear to Excitement Overnight

Rob Hanna — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 08:25:41 -0400
Yesterday's action was marked by fear as evidenced by the 20% spike in the VIX. This morning the SPY is gapping up 1.5%. Here's a quick look at other instances where extreme fear turned to extreme euphoria while the NYSE was closed.

DBC vs XLB … Again

Bob Barnes — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 08:24:47 -0400

Positive Internals

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 06:09:07 -0400

Internals are nearly as positive as they were negative yesterday, although price action for the major indices is currently stalling at respective Floor Trader Resistance 1 Levels (see cyan dashed line at $128.17).

Yen Intervention Scenarios

Kathy Lien — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 06:07:06 -0400

Seven ETFs with the Biggest "Bounce-Back" Potential

Gary Gordon — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 05:55:05 -0400

The broader S&P 500 may not have fallen far enough to have met the technical definition of a stock market correction. Yet we shouldn't dismiss an intra-day, high-to-low pullback of 7% as unremarkable. (For that matter, there may be more selling pressure ahead.)

On the flip side, what if the worst of the selling has passed us by? Is there a way one might locate exchange-traded investments worth purchasing?

Here's one process of selection that may be worth considering:

Commodities Wrap: Luck of the Irish

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 05:39:30 -0400

All Eyes on Japan, No Eyes on Inflation

Larry Kudlow — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 05:26:29 -0400
Better news from the Japan crisis today, as the nuclear power company Tepco appears to be on track to complete a power line to the Fukushima nuclear power plant this afternoon Tokyo time.
If they can start running water into plants No. 3 and No. 4, to replenish the spent nuclear fuel pools, then potentially the apocalyptic fright of massive radiation could be off the table.
No one knows, certainly not I. So much of this story is unknowable. But at least there's hopefully some good news.

Price Inflation Catches Up

Brad Zigler — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 01:17:05 -0400

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides more confirmation of inflation's momentum.
There's, of course, the headline number: the Consumer Price Index shot up 0.5 percent in February, fanned mostly by increases in fuel and food costs.
More interesting, though, was the year-over-year figures. Especially the wholesale price data. The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods, the benchmark for goods obtained for sale by retailers, is the green line in the chart below. It's up 5.6 percent from this time last year.

Time to Trade Stocks and Silver for Gold?

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 12:50:09 -0400

Market professionals and experienced investors consider it to be common knowledge that silver has more real-world uses than its precious metal sister gold. Silver is used in coins, photography, batteries, bearings, electronics, and mirrors. Silver also aids in numerous medical applications and even contributes to helping capture and use solar energy. The Silver Institute describes "silver uses" as follows:

US Data Supports USD/JPY As Traders Wait For Intervention

Kathy Lien — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 12:00:14 -0400

Initial Jobless Claims Fall and Industrial Production Slips

Jim Picerno — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 11:58:34 -0400

New filings for jobless benefits dropped by 16,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 385,000, the U.S. Labor Department reports. That's the fifth reading below the 400,000 mark since the end of recession in June 2009. Meanwhile, the widely watched four-week moving average slipped to just over 386,000, the lowest level since the recovery began.

Why You Must Consider Volatility when Trading with the TICK

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 11:55:42 -0400

Strategic Briefing: Producer Price Inflation

Jim Picerno — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 08:34:18 -0400

U.S. producer prices surge in February
RBC | Mar 16

GLD Holding Steady

Bob Barnes — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 08:27:24 -0400

When Less Bad Is Good: Three ETFs That Are Doing OK

Jim Slagle — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 06:06:43 -0400

Gasoline Stocks Drawn Down BIG Time

Brad Zigler — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 04:01:25 -0400

U.S. crude oil futures were struggling to recover their overnight buoyancy following the revelation of a larger-than-expected build in domestic inventories. Gasoline futures were bid more aggressively on reports of a bigger drawdown.
The American Petroleum Institute had estimated a 91,000-barrel increase in its weekly crude oil report Tuesday, while analysts eyed a 1.0-million- to 2.0-million-barrel build. This morning, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that inventories actually increased by 1.7 million barrels to 350.6 million.

CBOE Will Expand VIX-Based Options to Crude Oil ETF, Stocks

Jim Slagle — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 02:08:03 -0400

MSCI Japan ETF Had $692M Inflow Tuesday -TrimTabs

Jim Slagle — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 01:51:55 -0400

Market Tumbles on Misplaced Japan Fears

Dock David Treece — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 01:46:40 -0400

Last week on Fox Toledo we discussed the potential impacts of the natural disasters in Japan on the global economy and financial markets.

At that time much of the damage from the earthquake, along with the ensuing tsunami and after-shocks, was still being assessed. Based on what we were seeing from early reports we explained that the economic impact felt here in the United States should actually be relatively muted; that the greatest impact would be felt by those holding investments in companies that have been directly affected.

When ETNs Are Better Than ETFs

Jim Slagle — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 12:50:05 -0400

Market Dynamics Call for Tactical Adjustments

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 12:34:42 -0400

Whether one is a bull or bear, it is obvious the market has changed. Some of these changes are personal(selection and bias), but some are universal to all of us. I’ll save selection for later but the following actions can be noted by all:

1) Position Size- Daily Range is higher, we must make new positions smaller AND trim the old positions to account for increasing volatility.

Redacted Version of the March 2011 FOMC Statement

David Merkel — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 01:23:16 -0400

Comments

The FOMC seems a lot more bullish on the strength of the economy, especially employment. I would be reticent to raise my views by that much.

Flexible Asset Allocation (FAA) Update

Editorial Staff — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 12:21:50 -0400

By Guest Contributor
As you may recall, one of the components of the Flexible Asset Allocation program is the relative strength ranking of the 65 ETFs included in the program to the S&P 500, irrespective of whether the ETF is a domestic ETF or an international ETF. The logic of this approach is let the performance of the ETFs themselves drive the allocation process. Over time, being 25% invested in the top 4 of the top 5 ranked ETFs contributes to a significant positive difference in performance.

Alternative Energy ETFs Winning Favor

Jim Slagle — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 12:09:46 -0400

Déjà Vu for Financial Sector?

Jim Slagle — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 11:57:24 -0400

Potential Opportunities In Emerging Market ETFs

Jim Slagle — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 11:54:44 -0400

Japan ETFs At Big Premiums Tuesday

Jim Slagle — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 11:54:03 -0400

A SPY Gap & Partial Fill Pattern Suggesting More Upside

Rob Hanna — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 11:44:18 -0400

In last night's letter I reviewed a large number of studies that suggested a bounce is likely to ensue in the next few days. Below is one example.
Results here are strong, but the edge is pretty much exhausted after just 2 days. This is not a long-term setup.

Spring Forward - Into What?

Bob Lang — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 11:41:59 -0400

USD: Not All Is Rosy in US Economy According to Housing Data

Kathy Lien — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 11:38:33 -0400

New Housing Starts Drop Sharply as Building Permits Fall to Record Low

Jim Picerno — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 11:34:52 -0400

Housing starts fell sharply in February, dropping the most in a single month since 1984, the U.S. Census Bureau reports. The 23% retreat left starts at an annualized rate of 479,000 in February, or just above the previous low for this cycle-477,000 in April 2009. It's unclear if starts are headed for new lows, but the possibility surely went up a notch or two in light of today's numbers.

Japanese Volatility Spikes, Still Below '08 High

Jared Woodard — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 08:24:52 -0400

The “Japan VIX” (VXJ) spiked to 70 on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. A volatility index using the VIX-style methodology was launched late last year for the Nikkei 225 stock index; historical data and other information for this index (VXJ) is available from 1998 at the Center for the Study of Finance and Insurance at Osaka University. The chart below, from that site, shows the VXJ time series overlaid with Nikkei 225 prices.

Dealing with Crisis

Jeff Miller — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 08:23:24 -0400

Everyone is focused on the human tragedy in Japan. Hopes and prayers of all go out to those stricken. In such an environment it can be difficult to think about business and what the effects will be. Nonetheless, that is the job of the investment manager. We need to put emotion aside and think clearly about the issues.

Housing's Muted Role in the Economic Recovery

Jim Picerno — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 08:21:28 -0400

Country Rotator Status

Bob Barnes — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 08:20:33 -0400

Beyond Apple, ETF Offers Smart Phone Options

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 07:03:46 -0400

Identifying "Corrections" in Sector ETFs and in Country ETFs

Gary Gordon — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 05:53:09 -0400

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed more than 10% above its long-term 200-day moving average. That hasn't happened since August of 2010, back when investors fretted the possibility of a double-dip recession.

Fed Grows More Optimistic, Moves Closer to Ending QE

Kathy Lien — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 05:25:13 -0400

Commodities Wrap: As Goes Japan...

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 05:16:33 -0400

March FOMC Statement Comparison

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 04:35:31 -0400

Blue-lined markup comparison of the March versus January Federal Open Market Committee statements below. Also see past Fed-Day reactions on this site, and prior statement markups here.
[Click Graphic Below to Enlarge]

Snap Back in Face of Fear

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 04:28:10 -0400

The title says it all. We are coming up on potential resistance, however, at SPY $128.20 [Typo Correction, 0.30] — both S2 from below and the 500-min ema. Don’t forget it’s a Fed day.

The Learning Process

Ray Barros — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 03:14:34 -0400

A Tribute to HOS March 2011
At the end of the first day (Sat Mar 12) of this year's Habits of Success, one of the assistant trainers was rightly chuffed:
"What a fantastic crowd!The energy was high, so many questions and so focused! You won't get any complaints!"

Is Gold a Bargain Today?

Brad Zigler — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 02:48:13 -0400

Yesterday, we noted that money managers had pulled in their horns from the gold futures market amid a small speculator buying spree ("Little Guys Buying Gold").
Overnight, gold prices plunged in reaction to additional explosions at Japanese reactor sites. The sell-off spilled over into the U.S. morning trade. At one point, spot metal was off more than $30/oz. (2.2 percent).

Marc Faber on the Japanese Disaster, on a 20% Market Correction and on QE18

Tyler Durden — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 01:34:45 -0400

Will the Fed Hint at QE3 and Surprise the Bears?

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 01:21:21 -0400

Given the stark contrast between asset class performance before and after the implied announcement of QE2, the Fed’s statements related to quantitative easing in the coming weeks will have a significant impact on the outlook for stocks and the relative attractiveness of asset classes, market sectors, and subsectors.
The Fed is scheduled to issue statements on March 15 and April 27, 2011 with the following concerns as a backdrop:

Van Eck Global Launches Market Vectors® Colombia ETF

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 12:28:20 -0400

Japan Concerns Will Force Fed to Choose Words Carefully

Kathy Lien — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 12:25:23 -0400

Manager Sees Nuclear’s Sell-Off As Opportunity In Alternative Energy ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 12:24:20 -0400

What To Watch Out For When Global ETFs Are In Crisis

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 12:19:40 -0400

Huge ETF Moves Underscore Market Panic

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 12:10:55 -0400

Japan ETF Bounces Near 52-week Low

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 12:04:49 -0400

Global X Launches Gold And Oil ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 11:59:00 -0400

What Do VWO, EEM And EWZ Really Hold?

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 11:57:56 -0400

Copper ETF (JJC) May be Basing

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 11:54:48 -0400

Charting the Trend: Real Estate and Commercial & Industrial Loans

Jim Picerno — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 11:42:22 -0400

Last week's Federal Reserve update on loans at commercial banks in the U.S. reports the fourth straight monthly rise in C&I loans in February. The relative size of the increases continues to slip, however, increasing by $2.3 billion, well down from January's $5.3 billion advance. Meantime, real estate loans continue to retreat in absolute terms. Last month's decline accelerated, posting the biggest monthly drop in a year in seasonally adjusted dollar terms.

Intermarket Fallout from Japan Nuclear Situation

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 09:42:03 -0400

News travels fast across today’s highly correlated intermarkets (namely Gold, Oil, Stocks, Treasuries, and the US Dollar Index – along with corresponding related markets) and when news is tremendously bad, fall-out in the cross-markets takes a rapid “Risk-Off” effect.

Let’s do a pre-market morning update on the four main cross-markets and how this changes the picture on the daily charts should these levels hold (or deteriorate):

2% Down Gaps & Other Disasters

Rob Hanna — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 09:34:01 -0400
It can be difficult to know whether a very strong reaction is an overreaction. It can sometimes help to compare it to similar moves in the past. The table below is one I last showed in the 2/2/2009 blog. It looks at all the times the SPY gapped down at least 2% to start the day. The column on the right shows how long it took for SPY to close above its gap down open (up to a week). Today I’ve also added some red arrows. These mark the other times the gap down occurred following a close above the 200ma. As you'll note, a 2% gap in an uptrend is quite unusual.

Strategic Briefing: Japan's Nuclear Crisis

Jim Picerno — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 09:30:59 -0400

Japan Nuclear Crisis Deepens
Voice of America | Mar 15

EEM is Lazy Man Pick

Bob Barnes — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 09:28:37 -0400

Tsunami Hits Nuke ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 07:08:57 -0400

Bad Start Monday

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 06:47:44 -0400

Tick may be trying to turn the corner for a run to the VWAP here just past the mid-day, but news effects are likely just too strong to overcome much past that, I’d expect.

Three ETFs for Japan's Determination To Rebuild

Gary Gordon — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 06:43:55 -0400

There are many times when commentators bash Japanese equities. After all, the Nikkei benchmark has been a losing proposition for buy-n-holders over the past 20 years.

USD: FOMC Preview

Kathy Lien — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 06:36:37 -0400

What do the Charts Project for the Silver ETF (SLV)?

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 03:00:32 -0400

I'm always impressed by the amount of coverage financial networks and commercials provide towards gold's stellar rise in price, while ignoring the clear outperformance of Silver.
Savvy investors are aware of this interesting development and have been slowly taking advantage of the performance of silver relative to gold, so let's take a quick look at the weekly and daily chart of the popular Silver ETF - symbol SLV - to discover not only a few trading lessons to learn, but also current levels to watch in terms of open position management.

ETFs Respond To Uncertainty In Japan

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 12:54:41 -0400

Is There A Benign Explanation For The Way The Dollar Is Trading?

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 12:36:38 -0400

Dollar Takes a Backseat to Weekend Developments

Kathy Lien — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 12:19:10 -0400

Looking for a Signpost in the Fog

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 12:17:45 -0400

“Give me a one-handed economist. All my economists say on the one hand…on the other.” Harry S. Truman

Was Chicken Little Right?

John Nyaradi — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 12:17:06 -0400
This week I felt like Henny Penny in the classic story, Chicken Little, the nervous chicken that ran around warning, “the sky is falling, the sky is falling.”
But with revolution in the Middle East, Europe slipping farther into insolvency and the devastating earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown in Japan, truly the sky does seem to be falling.

At Wall Street Sector Selector, our portfolios remain in the defensive mode and we continue our work of seeking profits in both up and down markets.

On My Radar

Research on Changes in TICK Extremes Over Last 10 Years

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 12:15:22 -0400

How has the TICK changed over the last 10-years? And is a reading of 1,000 as significant today as it was 5 or 10 years ago?

These are questions you need to know if you’re using the TICK in any capacity in terms of absolute values (such as “fade the TICK intraday when it hits 1,000″).

Let’s take a look at a simple comparison of TICK Extreme Highs and Lows from 2000 to 2010 in terms of changes over time – you might be surprised.

Little Guys Buying Gold

Brad Zigler — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 12:13:04 -0400

Small speculators are big gold buyers now. Well, in truth, they have been big buyers for the past three weeks.
Net long positions held by small specs have notched new highs in the last three weekly Commitments of Traders reports published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Finally!!! A Charting App for Android

Jeff White — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 11:36:56 -0400

Accuvest’s Garff: Single-Country ETFs Are In

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 11:34:26 -0400

Why Current Environment Is Affecting Treasury Yields and ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 11:32:27 -0400

Bond ETF Ideas: Room For Growth In Fixed Income Arena

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 11:31:50 -0400

Precious Metals Morning Summary

Tyler Durden — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 11:30:11 -0400

From GoldCore
The world is still coming to terms with the terrible tragedy in Japan. A second explosion at the Fukushima nuclear reactor overnight and Pentagon reports of radiation being detected 60 miles away from the reactor suggest widening nuclear contamination leading to concerns of a nuclear catastrophe.

The Dollar, the RMB and the Euro?

Michael Pettis — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 08:44:02 -0400

Barry Eichengreen had a very interesting piece in last week’s Wall Street Journal. In it he argues that we are approaching the end of the period in which the US dollar is the world’s dominant reserve currency, and suggests what that might mean for the world. Here is what he says:

Intermarket Reference Levels for Week Ahead

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 08:43:03 -0400

There’s an interesting similarity of price reference levels for the three main “Risk-On” markets – as they’re all balanced at critical support levels.

Let’s take a quick look at the reference levels to watch this week in the S&P 500, Gold, and the newly volatile Crude Oil:

First, the key level in the S&P 500:

Weighing the Week Ahead: Time to Head for the Exit?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 08:40:18 -0400

Are you still invested in the market, but with one foot out the door?

Viewed another way, how can you join in the rally while keeping a close eye on risk?

Options Expiration Returns by Month

Rob Hanna — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 08:37:12 -0400
About a year ago I showed a table on the blog that broke down op-ex week by month. Op-ex week in general is normally pretty bullish. March, April, and December it has been especially so. S&P 500 options began trading in mid-1983. The table below is an updated version of the one I produced last year. It goes back to 1984. I excluded op-ex week of September 2001 due to the extreme (and horrific) circumstances.

Markets At Crossroads, Correction Looms

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 08:27:09 -0400
Last week was tough for the bulls, and here's the damage.
The NASDAQ led the way to the downside, sliding nearly 2.5% for the week.

The S&P 500 fared slightly better though, declining just 1.3%.

For the month of March, the S&P 500 is currently lower by about 1.7%, and the NASDAQ is down roughly 2.5%.

As I said last week, investors really need to be patient here. As it is still too early to confirm the recent high as the top of this intermediate-term uptrend.

Strategic Briefing: Economic Blowback from Japan

Jim Picerno — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 08:21:06 -0400

Analysis: Japan quake risks severe near-term economic damage
Reuters | Mar 14

Rebound to Pivot

Jeff Pietsch — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 04:50:51 -0500

Markets put in an impressive rebound from oversold conditions in the pre-market on the Japan earthquake news to the SPY pivot point at the mid-day. Whether that proves support or resistance will be key to monitor in the p.m. session.

Retail Sales Rise for 8th Consectuive Month in February

Jim Picerno — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 04:49:25 -0500

Retail sales jumped 1% on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, the Census Bureau reports. That’s the best monthly gain since last October’s 1.6% surge. It’s also the eighth straight monthly increase. Consumption, in other words, is doing fine. But quite a bit has changed on the global stage in recent weeks, namely, the Mideast turmoil and resulting jump in oil prices. The question is whether February data is dated?

What Triggered the Reversal in Forex?

Kathy Lien — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 04:46:32 -0500

Forex: Don't Ignore the Rise in Retail Sales

Kathy Lien — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 04:44:12 -0500

A Market In Motion Tends To Stay In Motion…

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 04:37:37 -0500

Newton’s First Law of Motion states that a body at rest will remain at rest unless an outside force acts on it, and a body in motion at a constant velocity will remain in motion in a straight line unless acted upon by an outside force. Financial markets are not immune to Newton’s First Law. The short-term “motion” in stocks is to the downside.

Commodities Wrap: Early Check Out

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 03:09:57 -0500

Cyclical Sector ETFs "Technically" Worse Off Than Non-Sensitive Sectors

Gary Gordon — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 01:58:06 -0500

Analysts like Bob Doll at Blackrock believe that U.S. economic growth will accelerate, with GDP likely to come in at a vibrant 3.5% for 2011. Economists polled at the Economist Intelligence Unit may be a little less enthusiastic, but they have raised their forecasts from 3.0% to 3.1%.

Silver Toppings

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 01:27:56 -0500

Tuckwell: Where ETF Gold Is Vaulted Matters

Jim Slagle — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 12:25:32 -0500

SPY’s 25-Minute Tumble Sends ETF Back To January Levels

Jim Slagle — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 12:15:08 -0500

Three Country ETFs That Could Benefit From Triple-Digit Oil

Jim Slagle — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 12:13:37 -0500

Crude Oil Back Over $100 Per Barrel

Jim Slagle — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 12:12:11 -0500

Inflation Scorecard: A Volatile Week

Brad Zigler — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 12:09:07 -0500

Gold reversed course Thursday, along with a broad spectrum of commodities, paring the gains scored earlier against the reserve currencies. Still, bullion managed to eke out a 0.7 percent advance vs. the yen and moved ahead 0.6 percent against sterling. The Swiss franc gave up 0.2 percent to gold, while the euro gained 0.1 percent.
U.S. dollar-denominated assets traded in a slightly inflationary direction this week.

InstaUpdate on S&P 500 Market Internals at Make or Break Level

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 11:57:39 -0500

The question on every trader’s mind is “Will the S&P 500 hold its critical support level at the 1,300 region or will it break lower sharply?”

It’s already lost the 1,300 area and – by a few points – lost the 50d EMA, but as we push to new lows on the morning session, Market Internals paint a surprisingly bullish picture which gives bulls a final ray of hope.

Japan Megaquake And Tsunami - Gold Mixed As Yen Surges Against All Currencies

Tyler Durden — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 11:48:17 -0500

From GoldCore
Japan Megaquake and Tsunami - Gold Mixed as Yen Surges against All Currencies
The massive earthquake and tsunami that has rocked Japan is being digested by markets and the economic ramifications and uncertainty is leading to risk aversion.

Triangle Breakdowns in a Long-Term Uptrend

Rob Hanna — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 11:45:57 -0500
About three years ago I did a post on triangle formations. I looked at success rates and profit potential of playing breakout of them. You may view those previous findings here. Last night in the subscriber letter I took a new look at these formations and what a break (like we saw yesterday) might mean.

Schwab’s ETF ‘Select List’ Leans Heavily Towards … Schwab!

Jim Slagle — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 10:18:45 -0500

XLE’s The Only Thing Working

Jim Slagle — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 10:17:07 -0500

Recapping Impressive Innovation In Bond ETF Space

Jim Slagle — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 10:16:09 -0500

Research Review: Mutual Fund Expenses

Jim Picerno — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 08:26:48 -0500

Brokerage Commissions: The Hidden Costs of Owning Mutual Funds
Xiaohui Gao (University of Hong Kong) and Miles Livingston (University of Florida) | Mar 4, 2011

Weak Employment Drives USD/CAD

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 08:24:25 -0500
The New Change in Employment came in at 15.1K jobs added versus expectations of 25.0 The Unemployment rate came in at 7.8% vs 7.7%. The Full time employment fell by -23.8K jobs and Part TIme Employment rose by 38.9K.

My First Trade

Jeff Miller — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 08:22:14 -0500

I clicked the speed dial on the office line.

A voice said "Stock desk."

I was very nervous. Despite earning my PhD at 27, advising high-level government officials, testifying before government committees, and frequent public speaking to large groups, this was a bit different. I was actually spending money -- a lot of it!

Under firm instructions. I said, "Buy two grand Beam at a quarter."

SMH & the Lazy Man

Bob Barnes — Fri, 11 Mar 2011 08:20:15 -0500

More Good News From US Gold

Brad Zigler — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 06:11:07 -0500

Despite the weakness in junior gold mining stocks, it's been a pretty good week for holders of U.S. Gold Corp. (NYSE: UXG) shares.
Exploration and development (E&D) companies like UXG have been struggling to regain their footing after stumbling at the 2010 year-end.

USD: Maybe Retail Sales Will Help

Kathy Lien — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 06:10:39 -0500

Three ETFs to Cash In on Rising Beef Prices

Kevin Grewal — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 02:54:41 -0500

An ever widening gap in supply and demand continues to prevail in the US cattle markets, pushing up prices and providing positive support to the PowerShares DB Agricultural Fund (DBA), the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Livestock Subindex Total Return ETN (COW) and the UBS E-TRACS CMCI Livestock TR ETN (UBC).

Copper ETFs May Be Indicating a Pause For the Bull Market

Gary Gordon — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 02:37:23 -0500
The worldwide bull market for stocks turned 2 years old on March 9, 2011. And so far, there’s been two meaningful corrections — one in 2009 and one in 2010.
Some in the media have suggested that the Dow might not experience any significant pullback… like the way U.S. stocks behaved in 1995. Others believe that stock assets will get knocked for a major headache, but eventually stake a claim to new heights.

Bottom of Range

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 02:32:40 -0500

Price has pulled back significantly in the aftermath of the second anniversary of the bull. Today’s action has price at the bottom of its increasingly choppy multi-week range bereft with indecision and run’er up to lower highs then distribute type action. While the narrowing wedge appears set to resolve to the downside, as long as SPX 1,300 holds it’s difficult to call the move done. That said, if you aren’t on high-alert…. For the day, VWAP appears to be holding just below S2, which I’ll be watching closely into the close as potential resistance.

Charting Charlie Sees His Shadow

Derek Hernquist — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 02:01:32 -0500

So the compression of energy from consecutive inside days results in an overnight gap through yesterday’s lows. Game over, breakdown ahead right? In the words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend.” Even the remaining non-chartists knew the past couple of weeks was coming to a head. And we will get a nasty open today, maybe even a nasty trend day down. From what I see, this simply takes upside resolution off the table and keeps us firmly in the blender until the end of Q1 a few weeks away.

The ETF World Gets Bigger

Jim Slagle — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 01:50:00 -0500

No Support for Risk as Data Shows Pain of High Oil Prices

Kathy Lien — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 01:36:08 -0500

What's Next For The Gold/Silver Ratio?

Brad Zigler — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 01:33:26 -0500

History repeats itself. Somebody important¹ said so.
Many silver traders and investors regard the gold/silver ratio now and think that old maxim is being proved again.
The white metal's been, er, white hot recently. Silver's gotten expensive—not just in dollars, but in terms of gold. And as silver's price has raced higher, the gold/silver ratio has plummeted.

The S&P 500 Dow Jones and the Critical 50-Day EMA

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 01:15:47 -0500

Traders across the world are watching critical chart levels in the US Equity Indexes very closely… so let’s take a look at these reference levels closely.

The S&P 500 and the 50d EMA:

The Coming Global Commodities Crisis

Clif Droke — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 01:03:32 -0500

The last few weeks has seen a startling rise in fuel and food prices. This has been a key contributor to the political and economic instability overseas; it's also paving the way for an even bigger crisis for the U.S. and the world economy by 2012.

SPY 1% Gap Down From A Tight Consolidation

Rob Hanna — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 12:56:01 -0500
A quick test I ran this morning...(results based on $100k/trade)

With only 3 instances I wouldn't get too worked up. I did find results interesting eough to share, though.

Schwab Sees Own Reflection In ETF List

Jim Slagle — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 12:43:22 -0500

Small-Cap ETFs Take it on the Chin

Jim Slagle — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 12:40:07 -0500

VIX, 'Flash Crash' Assets Tell Us Bears Are Gaining Traction

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 12:28:50 -0500

Traders, money managers, and individual investors have numerous concerns relative to the ‘risk-on’ or inflation trade:

QE2 is set to be completed in June.
Spain’s credit rating was downgraded today.
Unemployment remains high.
Ongoing unrest in the Middle East.
Surging oil prices threaten the economic recovery.
Eye-popping budget and entitlement problems in the U.S.

EUR/USD Reacts to Spain's Fall From Grace

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 08:32:58 -0500

The EURUSD fell sharply on the back of the downgrade of Spain today. In the chart above the fall found profit takers against the bottom of channel support. That level comes in at the white circle marked 2 (see the hourly chart above).

You Need a System...

Jeff Miller — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 08:31:19 -0500

Quote of the Day

Tadas Viskanta, ...(Y)ou have to have a system that gets you in and out of the market based upon your own signals and not pay attention to what other people are saying.

Pondering Austerity In Months Ahead

Jim Picerno — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 08:29:17 -0500

There are more green shoots in the economy these days, but there are more risks as well. The question is whether the risks have enough momentum to overwhelm the positives? No one really knows the answer, of course, but it's clear that the stakes are higher than just a month or two ago.

Frontrunning: March 10th

Tyler Durden — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 08:28:18 -0500

GLD Firm at 139

Bob Barnes — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 08:27:33 -0500

China to Buy Gold, Unload US Dollars?

Jim Slagle — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 07:17:11 -0500

USD: Counting on Trade

Kathy Lien — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 05:34:33 -0500

Schwab Rolls Out ETF-Picking Tool

Jim Slagle — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 05:27:00 -0500

Updating the Lazy Triangle Pattern in the SPY S&P 500

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 05:22:52 -0500

I wrote yesterday about the “Consolidation in the S&P 500” which continued today as we wound down to an even LOWER volatility range which made the dominant boundaries even clearer as traders now await a breakout.

Let’s see the update on the market and get ready for the next phase:

If The Gold/Copper Ratio Is Truly A Harbinger Of Market Weakness...

Tyler Durden — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 05:10:17 -0500

Commodities Wrap: Sideways Trade

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 05:06:56 -0500

Winning With The Charlie Sheen ETF Portfolio

Jim Slagle — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 03:02:52 -0500

What Happens When an ETF Folds?

Jim Slagle — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 02:45:53 -0500

ETF Tracking Error Fell In 2010, Study Says

Jim Slagle — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 02:35:08 -0500

These Three Sector ETFs Have Been Quietly Successful and Less Volatile

Gary Gordon — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 01:46:53 -0500

For the past eleven trading days, the S&P 500 sported an average daily trading range of 1.3%. That’s a far cry from the 7% intra-day swings of late ‘08. On the other hand, it’s significantly more volatile than what we had been experiencing before the rebellion in Libya.

Greenberg: The Best ETF Oil Plays

Jim Slagle — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 01:33:57 -0500

Four Causes of ETF Tracking Errors

Kevin Grewal — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 01:31:42 -0500

An exchange traded fund (ETF) is a basket of securities which can be bought and sold on an intraday securities exchange, making it highly appealing to investors. Furthermore, ETFs are structured in such a way that in an ideal world, they would track a specific index such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 1000 or MSCI without deviation; however, tracking errors do occur and investors should be aware of them.

Two-Year Mark Changes Story for Stocks

Dock David Treece — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 01:12:50 -0500

SPIVA: Passive Trumped Active In 2010

Jim Slagle — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 01:10:29 -0500

Semiconductor ETFs Under Pressure

Jim Slagle — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 01:09:46 -0500

A Booming Global Economy Propels Canada ETFs Forward

Jim Slagle — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 12:52:19 -0500

After Early Fall, Oil ETFs Now Flirting With (Slight) Move Up

Jim Slagle — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 12:45:45 -0500

How Uncle Sam Treats ETFs and ETNs

Kevin Grewal — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 12:45:19 -0500

As the timer to file one's taxes continues to tick away, it is important to understand how exchange traded funds (ETFs) and exchange traded notes (ETNs) can increase or decrease Uncle Sam's portion of the pie.

This Pattern Has Frequently Preceded A Pop In The SPX

Rob Hanna — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 12:43:05 -0500

Built-In Portfolio Protection

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 12:42:09 -0500

We continue to experience chop after months of a steady trend higher. Day to day movement is higher, actual progress lower. Without relying on prediction, in what ways can we adapt to a changing environment? The obvious is to step aside and wait for better conditions. As long as one has the will to execute a plan to resume operations when conditions become more favorable, this is solution #1. Is there a solution #2?

WTI Crude Piles Up While Gasoline Tanks Empty

Brad Zigler — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 12:37:36 -0500

Domestic crude stockpiles rose by 2.5 million barrels, to 348.9 million, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Department this morning. The build fell in line with the upper end of analysts' expectations. The green eyeshade set guessed the build would range anywhere from 400,000 to 2.3 million barrels.
The industry-supported American Petroleum Institute estimated the buildup would amount to 3.8 million barrels.
The biggest surprise in this morning's weekly inventory report was in the gasoline numbers.

How to Trade the RBNZ Rate Decision

Kathy Lien — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 12:37:05 -0500

Most Attractive Commodities Are Benefiting From QE2

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 11:37:23 -0500

Haven’t we seen this movie before? The economy enters a recession; we have a bear market, the Fed cuts interest rates drastically flooding the global financial system with cash, and commodity prices begin to soar.

In the United States, the Fed has a handy way to ignore rising commodity prices, something they call core inflation. While most of us eat, drive, and heat our homes, the Fed excludes food and energy from its core inflation reading to remove “volatile” components of the inflation equation.

Constructive Postponement

Jeff Miller — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 08:45:26 -0500

One of my missions at "A Dash" is to find unpopular themes that have investment significance and value. Often this means challenging the accuracy of the most recent "Wall Street Truthiness."

Frontrunning: March 9th

Tyler Durden — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 08:44:23 -0500

Strategic Briefing: Sentiment Surveys

Jim Picerno — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 08:40:40 -0500

CR Index: At last, consumers' financial lives improve
Consumer Reports | March 8, 2011

CBOE Rolls Out New Blog

Bill Luby — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 08:29:56 -0500

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), the same people who brought you the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and a host of other volatility products, recently joined the blogosphere with the launch of What’s On Our Minds...

GE and the Lazy Man

Bob Barnes — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 08:29:19 -0500

Oil MOOving Ag Stocks Lower

Brad Zigler — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 06:42:00 -0500

Ever ponder the relationship between crude and soybean oil? Take a gander at the chart below. The recent trading history of the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE Arca: MOO), when plotted against that of the United States Oil Fund (NYSE Arca: USO), pretty much sums it up.
The ag ETF tracks a 46-stock index of farm equipment manufacturers, agricultural chemical outfits and agriproduct/livestock operators, while the oil fund holds near-month contracts of West Texas Intermediate crude oil.

The Current Contracting Consolidation in the S&P 500

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 05:22:49 -0500

On a short-term basis, the S&P 500 is contracting into a clean trading range between well-defined triangle or trendline boundaries you should know.

Let’s take a look at two charts that show this range and the levels traders are watching closely:

First, let’s look at the bigger 60-min picture which shows a clean symmetrical triangle forming in the index.

Commodities Wrap: Fat Tuesday

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 05:07:38 -0500

India Funds Plan Silver ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 01:15:32 -0500

Builder ETFs Surge on Pulte Orders, M.D.C. Upgrades

Jim Slagle — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 01:13:36 -0500

Are Complex ETFs for You?

Jim Slagle — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 12:48:57 -0500

Will Fiscal Year End Repatriation Help the Yen?

Kathy Lien — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 12:48:33 -0500

Spreading Exposure Key to Gold, Silver ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 12:43:54 -0500

European Gasoline Hits All-Time Record Of $8.632 Per Gallon

Tyler Durden — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 12:42:40 -0500

And Americans are complaining at an average gas price in the mid $3 range. In Europe, gasoline has just hit an all time record of $8.632 per gallon! As HLN.be reports: "tomorrow the price of gas will reach an absolute record. Petrol 95 can hit €1.624 per litre. This breaks the 2008 record of €1.61 per liter." Translated into American this means that a gallon of gas in Europe is now an unprecedented $8.632 per gallon, which will certainly result in Europe literally and metaphorically grinding to a halt.

IndexIQ Planning Canada, Japan Mid-Cap ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 12:15:00 -0500

Airline ETF Soars On Southwest Report

Jim Slagle — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 12:09:42 -0500

Who's Going to Regulate the Regulators?

Clif Droke — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 12:06:52 -0500

The single most dominant theme among political commentators is the belief that government should do something - anything - to fix the financial system. Regardless of party affiliation, there is a near universal agreement that government should be charged with the task of regulating the financial realm in order to prevent another catastrophe.

Supply and Demand Favors Steel ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 12:03:59 -0500

Credit Suisse Rolls Out Geared Merger ETN

Jim Slagle — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 12:03:02 -0500

Manpower Survey Bullish, But Correction Threat Remains

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 11:45:46 -0500

Inflation Worries Creep Higher

Jim Picerno — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 11:39:40 -0500

The president of the European Central Bank is worried about inflation. "We're in an environment where we have a spike in the price of oil, commodities – it's more acute in the present circumstances," he says. Is the market also worried? Yes, at least on the margins.

ECB: Inflation May Be Worse

Greg Michalowski — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 08:52:20 -0500

Volatility Skew Hitting Short-Term Highs

Jared Woodard — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 08:49:52 -0500

I was quoted in a recent Reuters article about how the market correction has been perceived by options markets:

In the SPDR S&P 500 fund, the bearish sentiment is reflected by a high skew, a premium given to out-of-the-money puts relative to out-of-the-money calls, according to the latest weekly data.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Energy Price Hikes

Jeff Miller — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 08:48:43 -0500

Great stories sell newspapers -- and blog posts.

The rise in energy prices qualifies on several levels.

Aggregator System Riding Hot Streak

Rob Hanna — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 08:45:55 -0500
The Aggregator has been a terrific tool that has helped me greatly in both my index swing trading and for establishing a market bias for other trades.

Inflation Worries Creep Higher

Jim Picerno — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 08:42:40 -0500

The president of the European Central Bank is worried about inflation. "We're in an environment where we have a spike in the price of oil, commodities – it's more acute in the present circumstances," he says. Is the market also worried? Yes, at least on the margins.

Frontrunning: March 8th

Tyler Durden — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 08:39:16 -0500

DIA & the Lazy Man

Bob Barnes — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 08:33:45 -0500

ETF Failures: The Next Big Threat

Jim Slagle — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 07:31:01 -0500

Copper: Somebody Call a Doctor

Jim Slagle — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 06:42:01 -0500

Options Traders Bet Big On Oil ETF’s Continued Bull Run

Jim Slagle — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 06:31:35 -0500

Muni Bond ETFs at a Crossroads

Jim Slagle — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 06:12:48 -0500

Short Squeeze! Here Comes 50-Dollar Silver

Tyler Durden — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 06:11:30 -0500

Smart Money Europe – http://www.smartmoney.eu
Short squeeze! Here comes 50-dollar-Silver
Silver is blasting through all barriers, topping $36.5 this morning! The white bullion market is tight, and the short squeeze in the futures market is exerting a constant upward pressure on the price. If current trends persist, the all-time high of $49.45/ounce will be reached in the near future.

USD: Rate Differentials vs. Growth

Kathy Lien — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 05:45:02 -0500

Three Reasons Why China ETFs Will Roar Back to Life

Gary Gordon — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 05:41:19 -0500

You didn’t really thing that stock assets in the epicenter of world economic growth would underachieve for too much longer… did you? Since the Libya rebellion began roiling markets 10 trading days ago, SPDR S&P China (GXC) has returned 0.2%; the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) has lost roughly -2.5%.

It’s not that the U.S. market hasn’t held up remarkably well in the face of rising oil prices. It’s the fact that China has 3 “huge positives” that the U.S. sorely lacks.

Commodities Wrap: March Madness is NOT All About Basketball

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 05:26:17 -0500

Advisors Embracing ETFs, Schwab Says

Jim Slagle — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 03:50:42 -0500

Perceptions Of Silver Changing Dramatically

Jim Slagle — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 03:49:59 -0500

Gold/Oil Ratio Critical Now

Brad Zigler — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 01:26:06 -0500

Guess what? The price of gold and oil is rising. Oh? You've noticed that, have you?
Well, have you noticed how much these commodities have risen relative to each other? Oil, sparked by the unrest in the Mideast, is playing catch-up to bullion. Big-time. As you can see from the chart below, there's very little daylight between gold's and oil's recent return now. Domestic spot crude's appreciated at twice the rate of bullion this year.

Indexed Returns: Gold Vs. Oil

Physical Silver (PSLV) Premium To NAV Surges To Record High

Tyler Durden — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 01:22:41 -0500

Hottest ETFs of the Week – Commodities Ruling 2011

Jim Slagle — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 01:00:17 -0500

Bombay Bullion Association Plans Gold ETF

Jim Slagle — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 12:58:16 -0500

Silver Soaring...Again

Jim Slagle — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 12:57:25 -0500

Stock Market Correction Risk Increased

Jim Slagle — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 12:56:19 -0500

Three ETFs Directly Impacted by Food Prices

Jim Slagle — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 12:55:15 -0500

New ETF Tracks Corporate Loans

Jim Slagle — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 12:46:53 -0500

Bulls Seize on Oil ETF's Options

Jim Slagle — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 12:46:15 -0500

What Asset Allocation Means to Me

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 12:42:30 -0500

Forex: Three Themes of the Week

Kathy Lien — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 12:17:43 -0500

It may be a quiet morning in the foreign exchange market in terms of U.S. economic data but there is no shortage of themes for investors to key off of. With Friday's non-farm payrolls report failing to meet the market's lofty expectations, the dollar is holding steady or trading lower against all of the major currencies this morning. Escalating tensions in Libya continue to make investors nervous and has driven the price of oil to its highest level in 29 months.

Fear is Just Waking Up After a Long Slumber

Bob Lang — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 12:10:55 -0500

Are the days of ‘buy the dip' a thing of the past? Certainly that has been the mantra for months, the frustration of those who had been expecting a bigger dip to re-engage. But has the character of the market changed, or is it changing before our very eyes? Remains to be seen but certainly the increasing volatility and fear is a change from what have seen over the previous months. A trader loves volatility - chance to make trades on both sides of the market with less predictability in prices - but keep your timeframe short and leash ery tight.
A Crazy Week

Finding Fibonacci Triple Support Intraday on SPY

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 11:56:34 -0500

I wanted to share a quick lesson on locating a triple multi-day confluence support zone in the intraday SPY (and S&P 500) that helped shape Friday and now this morning’s trading tactics.

Let’s see the Triple Confluence and how to put it to work for you in the future:

Click for full-size (via Flickr)

A New Way to View Sector Performance Using FinViz

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 11:53:56 -0500

I’m a huge proponent of segmenting the broader stock market into sectors and then comparing which sectors are outperforming the other using insights from the classic Sector Rotation model.
I came across a new way of viewing sector breakdown performance from FinViz’s website with their Group Screener Grid tool and I wanted to share that link along with the current annual and 6-month sector performance charts.

A New Way to View Sector Performance Using FinViz

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 09:25:18 -0500

I’m a huge proponent of segmenting the broader stock market into sectors and then comparing which sectors are outperforming the other using insights from the classic Sector Rotation model.

I came across a new way of viewing sector breakdown performance from FinViz’s website with their Group Screener Grid tool and I wanted to share that link along with the current annual and 6-month sector performance charts.

Flat Week for Equities

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 09:20:07 -0500

Large Moves Up on Day Before Employment

Rob Hanna — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 09:16:22 -0500

Frontrunning: March 7th

Tyler Durden — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 09:13:52 -0500

Job Growth Remains Weak

Jim Picerno — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 08:33:59 -0500

IWM & Lazy Man (Cont.)

Bob Barnes — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 08:19:35 -0500

Is the Bear Stirring in His Cave?

John Nyaradi — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 06:30:34 -0500
With recent global developments threatening the ongoing economic recovery, the average retail investor and mutual fund manager now face the possibility that they’re, once again, facing the possibility that the bear is stirring in his cave and threatening a reappearance on the global stage.
Uncertainty in the Middle East is rattling world markets on an almost daily basis, and in my opinion, it’s likely that this upheaval isn’t going to end anytime soon.

USD: The Pain Of Rising Oil Prices

Kathy Lien — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 05:23:36 -0500

Overpriced Small-Cap ETFs May Give Way to Fairly Priced Large Cap ETFs

Gary Gordon — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 04:03:40 -0500

There’s one issue that has been bothering me for quite some time. Why would investors eagerly pay 21x forward earnings estimates for the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM), when they can pay roughly 14x forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY)?

Six months earlier, the forward P/E ratios had demonstrated a similar discrepancy. Yet the markets rewarded investors who chose to overweight IWM; the small cap super-charger garnered 34% over the same half-year period that SPY amassed 24%.

Crude Oil at the Key 100 Level Intraday

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 03:55:29 -0500

Keeping with the simplicity theme, it’s often very informative to watch price as it interacts (tests) a critical “psychological” technical level – for example, $100 for Crude Oil.

Let’s take a look at the current and past “power plays” crude oil has made at this key Bull/Bear Battle-Zone:

Inflation Scorecard: In a Word, "More"

Brad Zigler — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 02:27:42 -0500

Gold continued its rise across the reserve currency spectrum this week. The yen yielded 1.1 percent to bullion with the Swiss franc close behind with its 1.0 percent loss. Sterling was off 0.4 percent as the euro fell 0.3 percent.
U.S. dollar-denominated asset values also reflected an inflationary bias. For the week ending Thursday:

The VIX and the Powerful 200-Day SMA

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 02:25:15 -0500

Sometimes it’s the simplest things that make the most difference/impact.

Take for example the daily VIX – Volatility Index – and its 200 day Simple Moving Average:

While there are other standard indicators on the chart, let me call your attention to the flat red line – the 200 day simple moving average.

Walking Away

Jeff White — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 02:22:25 -0500

I caught Joey Fundora’s post today called It’s Okay to Take a Break From Trading. He brings forth some excellent points, so go check it out. And while Joey primarily addresses backing away when you feel you lack an edge (rightfully so) or when going on vacation, it got me thinking about the times when trading just becomes a little too important, and perhaps even a self-imposed staycation might be warranted.

When the Scales Are Tipping…

This Broker's Losing the Free-ETF Battle

Jim Slagle — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 01:55:56 -0500

More Country-Specific ETF Winners For $100 Oil

Jim Slagle — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 01:55:12 -0500

US Commodity Linked ETFs Enjoy Strong Inflows

Jim Slagle — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 01:54:07 -0500

February ETF Flows: Commodities Are Hot, Emerging Markets Are Not

Michael Johnston — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 12:56:22 -0500

February marked another month of growth for the U.S. ETF industry, though the pace of inflows slowed a bit from recent months. According to data from the National Stock Exchange assets stood at $1.055 trillion at the end of February, an increase of about 3.5% over the previous month. February inflows totaled $7.4 billion, down slightly from the $10.3 billion that came in during January.

China Wants to More than Double ETF Offerings

Jim Slagle — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 12:30:54 -0500

Swedroe: Active Investing A Waste Of Time

Jim Slagle — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 12:29:33 -0500

Sentiment Changes Toward Emerging Market ETFs

Jim Slagle — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 12:28:11 -0500

Gold Stocks in SPX Selloffs

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 12:23:00 -0500

Stock Market Outlook and Attractive Sectors

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 12:18:35 -0500

As we prepare for Friday’s employment report, it is a good time to review both the market’s outlook for the next few months and our possible investment approach. For those keeping score at home, the consensus forecast for Friday’s employment number is 180,000; the range of forecasts spans from 120,000 to 255,000. Thursday saw the biggest gain in stocks thus far in 2011. According to Bloomberg:

Non-Farm Payrolls Report: Good but not Great

Kathy Lien — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 11:57:54 -0500

Unemployment Continues Down

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 09:00:10 -0500
Unemployment Rate continues to move lower. Now at 8.9%
NFP +192K
Private Payroll 222K
Manufacturing added 33K
Average workweek 34.2
There are revisions to prior numbers as well with last month rising to 63K from 36K. Private sector payroll rose to 68K from 50 K as well.

Although the number is better, the dollar has ironically fallen. The USDJPY moved higher initially but has since moved back lower toward support.

POMO Stimulus Indicator Update

Rob Hanna — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 08:58:22 -0500

Frontrunning: March 4th

Tyler Durden — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 08:56:23 -0500

IWM & Lazy Man

Bob Barnes — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 08:50:17 -0500

Strategic Briefing: Interest Rates and the Crowding Out Effect

Jim Picerno — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 08:43:56 -0500

The theory of "crowding out" predicts that higher government borrowing may force interest rates higher than they otherwise would if the private sector prevailed in the money markets. How does this theory jibe with recent history? Read on for some perspective...

Stocks Diss Oil, for Now

Larry Kudlow — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 05:54:55 -0500

Big economic-growth stats are trumping oil prices and the Mideast tinderbox. In optimistic trading on Thursday, stocks soared nearly 200 Dow points. Oil barely fell to just under $102 a barrel. Know what? The market may be shouting out that the recent oil spike is not going to derail economic recovery.

Reviewing My Digital Notebook

Derek Hernquist — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 04:41:14 -0500

The reason I started blogging was to help clarify my thoughts, as there is something about writing that forces an extra look. On top of that, my thoughts are now recorded for review by anyone…most of all, myself. After years of accumulating notebooks full of cryptic passages, at least now my thoughts have a sense of organization and the ability to search for certain words and phrases.

The First Loss

Ray Barros — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 04:35:02 -0500

Today I had a drink with a friend and attendee of two of my courses. In the course of our conversation, I mentioned a mutual acquaintance and I was reminded of Denise Shull’s comment (at least I think I first heard it from her) that it’s not the first loss that caused the damage; it’s the the subsequent loses that are the killers.

Bailing Out Of Gold Miners

Brad Zigler — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 04:32:47 -0500

Earlier this week, we pondered the implications of company officers buying a certain junior mining stock ("Insiders Buy A Gold Junior. Should You?").
The article featured a chart showing the relative performance of mining stocks—collectively represented by the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX) and the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDXJ)—to gold itself.

Commodities: Searching for Direction

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 04:14:07 -0500

Global X Debuts Argentina ETF (ARGT)

Michael Johnston — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 02:28:53 -0500

Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: What to Expect

Kathy Lien — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 02:17:07 -0500

Global X Launches the First Argentina ETF

Jim Slagle — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 02:05:59 -0500

Brokerage Firms Vying for Piece of ETF Market

Jim Slagle — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 01:59:29 -0500

Using Options to Trade Apple (AAPL) at a Possible Discount

Steve Claussen — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 01:22:15 -0500
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) appears to be bouncing back after a rough second half of February. From February 16 through last Thursday, the shares dipped from an annual high near $365 to below the $340 level.
Last Friday, as the market put in its first positive session for the week, Apple shares began to claw higher as well and have already recovered back above the $350 level. After rebounding off its 50-day moving average last week, the stock has now moved back above its 10-day and 20-day moving-average trendlines.

Ever Wonder What Warren Buffet's Acquisition Criteria Are?

David Merkel — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 01:16:41 -0500

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
ACQUISITION CRITERIA

We are eager to hear from principals or their representatives about businesses that meet all of the following criteria:

Why Does My ETF Dividend Fluctuate So Much?

Jim Slagle — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 01:11:07 -0500

Six More Bullish Signs For Cotton ETN

Jim Slagle — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 01:09:14 -0500

How to Create Your Own Energy Portfolio

Jim Slagle — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 01:08:04 -0500

Emerging Markets Letdown

Jim Slagle — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 01:06:34 -0500

PowerShares Debuts Senior Loan ETF (BKLN)

Jim Slagle — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 01:05:34 -0500

Measuring the Performance of the Ivy Portfolio

Jim Slagle — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 01:04:09 -0500

You Want Small Business to Start Hiring? Here's What To Do

Tyler Durden — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 01:02:16 -0500

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

Gold Insurance Is CHEAP!

Brad Zigler — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 12:57:12 -0500

On Wednesdays, my local newspaper gets delivered with scads of grocery store ads offering all kinds of cheap goods. It's darned hard to miss them when they clatter to the floor.
Not everybody takes advantage of these discounts, but some savvy shoppers I know eagerly await the ads to help them map out their menus for the coming week.
The grocery stores aren't the only marketplaces offering sales, however. The option market is having a big sale, too. Traders are virtually giving away puts. Puts, specifically, on the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (NYSE Arca: GLD).

Is The Stalled Decline In Jobless Claims Really Over This Time?

Jim Picerno — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 12:27:58 -0500

Was that a tipping point for the trend in jobless claims? Today’s update of weekly filings for new unemployment benefits shows a drop to a seasonally adjusted 368,000 for the week through February 26. Initial claims haven’t been this low since May 2008. Today’s number also marks another milestone since the end of the recession: the first back-to-back weekly readings below 400,000.

My Interview with Rep. Ron Paul

Larry Kudlow — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 12:05:31 -0500

Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) chairs the House Financial Services Subcommittee, which oversees the Federal Reserve. I interviewed him last night on CNBC's "The Kudlow Report".

KUDLOW: Fed head Ben Bernanke is under fire for the second day in a row, appearing before Congress to justify his pump priming, easy money policies. But our next guest, House member Ron Paul, a fierce Fed critic, ripped into the Fed head today, even challenging big Ben on the very simple definition of the dollar. Here is the exchange:

The Inner-Workings of Dividend ETFs

Tom Lydon — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 12:20:39 -0500

Income seeking investors love dividends, and exchange traded funds (ETF) that pay these out can be an investors best friend. Sometimes the dividend can fluctuate, creating some confusion for investors.

An ETF that owns stocks will collect the dividends based on the number of shares of the underlying companies it owns over the course of time, explains Michael Rawson for Morningstar. These dividends collect, and then get paid out to shareholders, often monthly or, more commonly, quarterly.

February Employment: Time for a Real Rebound?

Jeff Miller — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 08:57:17 -0500

The most important data of the week will come Friday morning: The Employment Situation Report. Here is what you need to know.

This week's employment situation report is more important than ever. The January numbers, as I predicted, were so confusing that it was hard to draw any confident conclusions.

Carving Up Betas is Only a Partial Solution

Jim Picerno — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 08:56:13 -0500

More is better when it comes to asset allocation, at least in theory. But how much is too much? Common sense suggests that there's a point of diminishing returns to dividing up portfolios into ever finer slices. Exactly where that point lies is unclear, however. That's partly because analyzing widely divergent portfolio choices rapidly spins out of control as a quantifiable research project intent on dispatching a few concise insights. Reviewing the infinite, in other words, doesn't help much in the search for one-size-fits-all advice.

Frontrunning: March 3rd

Tyler Durden — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 08:54:49 -0500

GLD at the Threshold

Bob Barnes — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 08:41:36 -0500

Commodities Wrap: No End in Sight

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 04:49:03 -0500

Jobs Appears at Apple iPad 2 Release

Editorial Staff — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 03:22:41 -0500

Want to Trade Apple Right Now? Know These Price Levels

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 03:11:10 -0500

The news is abuzz with fresh news that the iPad version 2 - a sleeker, improved version - will be available for purchase (ideally) March 11^th... and intraday traders are looking to make a quick buck scalping Apple shares ahead of and after the announcement.

There's a known/common tendency for Apple shares to run-up higher ahead of a big product announcement... and then fall a bit once the actual news hits.

Guggenheim May Combine ETF Operations

Jim Slagle — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 02:42:02 -0500

First Oil Drawdown in Weeks

Brad Zigler — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 02:18:59 -0500

It was a week of drawdowns in the domestic petroleum market. The off-take had pretty much been built in to prices, as crude and product futures extended their gains in overnight trade in anticipation of this morning's weekly inventory report from the U.S. Energy Department. Prices were buoyed by industry estimates of a fall in stockpiles.

Behind the Surge in Gold and Silver ETFs

Jim Slagle — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 02:18:23 -0500

FactorShares ETFs In Free-Trading Program

Jim Slagle — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 02:17:39 -0500

How Market Internals Helped You Avoid March 1 Gap Flap Trap

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 01:58:56 -0500

“How can you know in advance/in real time whether a breakout is real or a trap?”

That’s a question I’m frequently asked at Expos/via email and it’s a very important question.

While there’s no 100% method (I wish there were), knowing how to read market internals gives some of the best clues available – so how did market internals help you side-step Tuesday’s March 1st gap-flap trap?

Easy – let’s take a look:

Russell Plans More Small Cap ETFs

Michael Johnston — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 01:44:48 -0500

FocusShares ETFs To Undercut Schwab, Vanguard

Michael Johnston — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 01:42:43 -0500

In October 2008, FocusShares announced that it was shutting down its four ETFs after the funds had failed to attract significant assets in about a year of operations. That first generation of FocusShares products included hyper-targeted funds such as the Homebuilders Index Fund, SINdex Fund, Homeland Security Index Fund, and Wal-Mart Supplier Index Fund. Almost two and a half years after shuttering its colorful product suite, the firm is preparing for another venture into the ETF space, this time as a low-cost provider of plain vanilla exchange-traded products.

Has Spiking Oil Kicked-Off a New Bear Market in Stocks?

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 01:36:21 -0500

Today, we cover specific strategies and tactics we may employ over the coming weeks with respect to our holdings, cash, the Fed, the outlook for stocks, oil prices, and key market levels. The recent spike in oil prices has many wondering if it is “déjà vu all over again”. In July 2008, oil prices surged to over $140 per barrel with the S&P 500 trading at 1,240. As oil came back to earth over the coming months, the S&P 500 did not find buyers until hitting 666 intraday in March 2009.

Don't Worry about ETF Stripping

Jim Slagle — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 01:14:25 -0500

The Inflation Myth

Dock David Treece — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 12:50:16 -0500

A No-Win Situation for the Fed

Clif Droke — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 12:34:21 -0500

Can a Short ETF Work for Average Investors?

Jim Slagle — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 12:21:47 -0500

Why the Norway ETF Is Golden

Jim Slagle — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 12:11:29 -0500

Active ETFs Meet Innovation

Jim Slagle — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 12:05:47 -0500

Russell Plans More Small Cap ETFs

Jim Slagle — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 11:52:41 -0500

Keyline Trendline Price Level to Watch in US Dollar Index

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 11:45:45 -0500

The US Dollar Index continues to flirt with a long-term (3-year) Trendline and critical support level which traders are watching very closely.

Let’s take a moment to look at this trendline and level as it stands now in the Dollar Index:

ADP: Employment Growth Accelerates in February

Jim Picerno — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 11:38:28 -0500

There’s enough upward momentum in today’s ADP Employment Report for February to encourage the belief that the labor market is healing. But true to form these days, there’s still not enough juice in the numbers to slay worries that job growth will be anything other than modest for the foreseeable future.

Frontrunning: March 2nd

Tyler Durden — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 08:23:50 -0500

New eBook Short: Options and the Volatility Risk Premium

Jared Woodard — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 08:22:06 -0500

The Madness of Mr. Market

Jim Picerno — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 08:19:58 -0500

Reuters blogger Felix Salmon grumbles that the market's driving him batty, and so he urges us to ignore it, if only for sanity's sake. "The one thing I’ve learned over the past three years is that the market just isn’t a sensible or rational place," he writes.

Five ETFs For Uncertainty in Crude Oil Prices

Gary Gordon — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 05:06:02 -0500

Do you remember the last time that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spent more than 6 consecutive days above a 50-day moving average? It occurred between late April and early July of 2010. To be more precise, the VIX hasn’t been this “trend-challenged” since the previous stock market correction.

Truth be told, it’s unlikely that we’ll get a traditional 10% pullback right now. There are enough “blue chip-n-dip” buyers to keep the S&P 500 and DJI from falling too far from respective 2011 peaks.

Gas Prices High? Ethanol Won't Help

Brad Zigler — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 05:03:58 -0500

Okay, kids. Time to compare and contrast.
Anybody who drives knows that pump prices have been rising recently. The trend started long before the unrest in Libya, though the tumult in North Africa was an additional shock. Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude, which had been languishing, have shot up, compressing domestic refiners' margins. The rapid advance in product prices—heating oil and gasoline, in particular—had previously fattened refiners' grosses to levels not seen since the economic meltdown of 2008.

More On That Broken 7 Month "First Day Of The Month" Winning Streak

Tyler Durden — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 04:45:49 -0500

Four ETFs With Ugly Charts

Jim Slagle — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 04:38:07 -0500

Manufacturing's Hot. Will Job Growth Follow?

Jim Picerno — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 02:56:04 -0500

Manufacturing is on a roll. Today’s update of the ISM Manufacturing Report for February shows that "economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the 19th consecutive month." In fact, the latest rise brings the index to the previous high, set in 2004. The question is when, or if, the revival in manufacturing will spill over into the labor market?

The Middle East Panic Play and Intermarket Fallout

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 02:51:07 -0500

It’s always important to incorporate major headline news when doing inter-market analysis, because certain ‘narrative’ events can temporary unravel or unlink intermarket relationships, as we’ve seen over the last month as political uncertainty has spread in Africa/Middle-East.

One can even start to call it the “Middle-East Panic Play” in terms of what knee-jerk sudden moves occur in the cross-markets.

Here – let’s take a look at the fall-out:

GLTR Shines Amid Regional Calamity

Jim Slagle — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 01:59:52 -0500

Is A -0.5 Correlation Of Oil To Stocks Indicative Of A Market Top?

Tyler Durden — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 01:39:24 -0500

Kauffman: Settlement Fails Pose Risk

Jim Slagle — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 01:36:20 -0500

Dollar ETF in Focus as Bernanke Goes to the Hill

Jim Slagle — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 01:08:12 -0500

FactorShares Introduces Spread Trading in an ETF Wrapper

Jim Slagle — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 01:07:11 -0500

Hedging With Spread ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 01:06:21 -0500

The Basic ETF Trading Practices That Can Save Your Clients Money

Jim Slagle — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 01:05:44 -0500

Precious Metals Break Out, Gold Passes $1,428, Silver Passes $34.50

Tyler Durden — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 12:52:06 -0500

After a two month delay, gold is about to take out it all time high, silver has just passed $34.50, and, shockingly, the dollar is down as the Chairsatan drones on.

Brent and Nymex Crude Oil

Ray Barros — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 12:24:51 -0500

The other week on CNBC, just before the Middle East contagion began, I was asked what I though of Crude. I said:

I felt that Nymex Crude would close above $91.00 per barrel and that
The Brent-Nymex spread would widen.

Last night a presentation I made for my new school, I was asked what I meant by the spread widening. The question was an Aha moment for me: that for many traders Crude Oil trading means Nymex Crude.

The fact is there are two ‘crudes’:

Brent Oil traded at the ICE exchange and

Trouble Ahead, Trouble Behind?

Derek Hernquist — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 12:23:25 -0500

My reason for interpreting price action is not to find some magical pattern that leads to sure profits…it’s to find out where the bodies are buried. Where is the big volume? Is it below (bullish) or above (bearish)? Is it yet to be seen(continuation), or has this part of the trend attracted a crowd(reversal)? People with human emotions, just like me, can be compelled to act on them and usually leave their territory marked. Market technicians are just hunting for instances of widespread doubt and belief, regret and relief, etc.

Gold Market Update

Steve Saville — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 12:04:20 -0500

Egypt ETF Still In Limbo

Michael Johnston — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 12:02:36 -0500

The sudden and bizarre detour taken by the Egypt ETF over the last month seemed headed back towards normalcy this morning, as the Egyptian Stock Market was set to reopen for trading for the first time in more than a month. But in a last minute decision government officials delayed the reopening once again until March 6, this time in order to "allow investors to profit from the government's support to guarantee stability in the bourse."

Bernanke Fails to Save the Dollar

Kathy Lien — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 11:16:41 -0500

Chart of the Week: Flight to Safety ETPs

Bill Luby — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 08:56:01 -0500

It has already been an interesting year for students of market sentiment, volatility and geopolitical influences on financial markets. We have seen revolutions of various sizes and shapes in the likes of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, with smaller uprisings in Bahrain, Algeria and elsewhere in North Africa and Middle East. For the most part, volatility in the equity markets has been rather muted prior to the Libyan revolution and its influence on crude oil prices.

Strategic Briefing: Commodity Inflation

Jim Picerno — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 08:54:03 -0500

Prospects for the Economy and Monetary Policy
William Dudley, president and CEO, NY Fed | Feb 28

Daily Highlights: 3.1.2011

Tyler Durden — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 08:50:14 -0500

XLB on the Move

Bob Barnes — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 08:38:22 -0500

Emerging Market Dividend ETFs May Lower Portfolio Risk

Gary Gordon — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 06:19:36 -0500

State Street didn’t invent the concept of dividend-oriented exposure to emerging markets. The Matthews Fund family has been ultra-successful with its Matthews Asia Dividend Fund (MAPIX) for many years. What’s more, WisdomTree’s Emerging Market Equity Income ETF (DEM) tracks an emerging market dividend index and has been a mainstay since July of 2007.

Vanguard Slashes Fees, Russell Proposes 18 ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 06:16:52 -0500

USD: What Will Big Ben Say?

Kathy Lien — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 06:15:17 -0500

Commodities Wrap: Draw the Curtain on February

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 05:16:42 -0500

1st Week Without A Higher High Since November

Rob Hanna — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 03:02:28 -0500

Last week was the 1st in which the SPX failed to make a new high since November. Prior to this it had been 12 straight weeks of higher intraweek highs. In last night’s subscriber letter I took a look at other times similar streaks existed and what happened after they ended. Below is a study that showed results of instances with at least 10 consecutive higher highs.

Spending & Income Rise in February

Jim Picerno — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 02:56:27 -0500

King Dollar? The Swiss Franc (FXF) May Become The World's Currency

Gary Gordon — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 02:21:36 -0500

Oil has been stealing the mainstream media headlines. And quite frankly, the Libya-inspired surge in crude should be the lead story.

However, there’s a far more intriguing “back-pager” that investors need to know about. The Swiss franc hit an all-time high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday. Note: You may want to look at the trend for Currency Shares Swiss Franc (FXF).

Insiders Buy A Gold Junior. Should You?

Brad Zigler — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 02:08:13 -0500

It's been a hard slog this year for holders of junior mining stocks. The five dozen exploration and development companies that make up the index tracked by the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDXJ) have collectively fallen 6.3 percent since the top of the year.
Not that gold's done all that well, but with bullion off only 1 percent, the juniors haven't been paying back their higher risk with higher returns.

Gold Miners Relative Strength Vs. Gold

Presidential Cycle 3rd Year: What You Need to Know

Ray Barros — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 02:03:16 -0500

When considering Presidential Cycle in the stock market, I have found that treating a year that begins from November rather than January produces more robust results. I could never come up with a reason for this until I read Tom McCellan’s November 5 article. In it he suggests the reason is the stock market reacts to the election results as soon as they are known; so starting from a year from November makes the results more robust.

Options Coming For Gold VIX ETF

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 02:02:32 -0500

Is EGPT Going To Pop 60%, 20% Or Not At All?

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 02:00:31 -0500

Three ETFs To Watch This Week: BNO, EIRL, EUO

Michael Johnston — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 01:48:43 -0500

4th Annual Inside ETFs Keynote Speech

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 01:47:38 -0500

Vanguard Slashes Expenses On VWO, Five Other International ETFs

Michael Johnston — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 01:45:41 -0500

Vanguard led all ETF issuers in cash inflows last year, thanks in no small part to a shift among investors towards the most cost-efficient ETF options. Now the company is lowering expenses on six of its international equity ETFs, reflecting greater efficiencies realized in the form of asset growth and operating cost reductions. The ETFs impacted by the expense ratio reduction include:

Critical Analysis of Buffett’s Annual Letter

David Merkel — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 01:13:50 -0500

I’ve written a lot about Buffett over the years. I think this is the eighth shareholder letter that I have written about. I have the unique perspective of being both an actuary and a value investor. I get what Buffett is doing, though by no means am I his equal. This is a commentary on his 2010 shareholder letter.

Inside The Active Bear ETF: Q&A With John Del Vecchio

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 01:12:31 -0500

No Way Out?

John Nyaradi — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 12:50:03 -0500
It was quite a week with revolution coming to Tripoli, Libya, and Madison, Wisconsin, while the economic and earnings news could only be described as dismal.
Market tremors early in the week caught the “buy on the dip” crowd off guard while Congress worked to avert a government shutdown this coming week and the “new austerity” threatens to trigger a double dip recession at home.

More Dollar Erosion

Brad Zigler — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 12:38:36 -0500

This week, gold knocked the world's reserve currencies down a peg - with the sole exception of the Swiss franc. While the Swissie moved up 0.6 percent against bullion, sterling slid 2.0 percent and the euro declined 1.0 percent. The yen gave up 0.6 percent to gold.
For the week ending Thursday, inflation in U.S. dollar-denominated assets accelerated:

Daily Charting Silver and Gold (SLV, GLD) at New Highs

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 12:38:06 -0500

With QE2, Libya/riot concerns, and the prevailing up-trends all helping push leading precious metals funds GLD (Gold ETF) and SLV (Silver ETF) to their upper resistance breaking point, let’s take a look at the current daily chart structure, note key levels to watch, and see what the charts say at the moment.

First, let’s start with the leader – Silver (SLV):

When P/E Ratios Matter

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 12:32:45 -0500

Alternate Ways to Play Gold Via ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 12:25:22 -0500

Using ETFs to Play Copper

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 12:24:38 -0500

Doug Kass Adding IWM To Short Book

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 12:22:44 -0500

As Dollar Poleaxing Continues, Silver Takes Off

Tyler Durden — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 12:21:30 -0500

As the dollar is getting its daily dose of poleaxing, the natural currency substitutes do their usual thing.
And some updated thoughts from FMX on the next steps for gold.

5 ETFs That Need to Die

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 12:19:14 -0500

Russell Files For More ETFs Using US One

Jim Slagle — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 12:15:48 -0500

Energy Will Be A Newsmaker for Years

John Nyaradi — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 11:41:06 -0500

With this week’s unrest in Libya, the energy markets have been big news as the price of oil went parabolic early in the week and then oscillated wildly as the news out of the Middle East took investors on a wild roller coaster ride of volatility. While the rolling revolutions in the Middle East will be making short term headlines, the underlying, more sobering fact is that energy will likely be making headlines for years and have the potential to impact global equities markets and even threaten the very basis of the American way of life.

Markets Continue to Defy Bear Logic

Bob Lang — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 11:30:51 -0500

US Data Does Not Diminish Possibility of QE3

Kathy Lien — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 11:16:56 -0500

Investors are feeling more optimistic this morning ahead of what will undoubtedly be a busy and volatile trading week. Not only are there 3 central banks with monetary policy announcements, but Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be delivering his semi-annual testimony on monetary policy and the economy Tuesday followed by non-farm payrolls on Friday. In addition, there will be a number of key economic reports from the U.S., Germany, Australia and Canada that could affect the outlook for those currencies.

Market Uptrend Remains Intact

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 08:34:29 -0500
Last week, the equity markets closed lower for the first time in a month.
The NASDAQ fell about 1.9%, and the S&P 500 lost 1.7%.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Energy Prices, Politics, Jobs

Jeff Miller — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 08:28:06 -0500

There are many economic and political cross-currents. This leads to a host of plausible-sounding opinions and plenty of confusion!

Last week I highlighted the energy price concern. This week I try to look at each of the major market worries in an objective fashion. As usual, I will review the data and also look ahead. I try to take both a trading and an investment perspective.

Background on "Weighing the Week Ahead"

Frontrunning: February 28th

Tyler Durden — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 08:26:00 -0500

Can the Crowd Exploit the Rebalancing Bonus?

Jim Picerno — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 08:24:10 -0500

VIX & More Posting to Resume

Bill Luby — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 08:23:01 -0500

Thanks to all who have inquired about my absence and health. It turns out that I have been under the weather, then taking some time off. Originally I had intended to post more intermittently rather than coming to a complete stop, but now I am back to a normal posting schedule.

Join Corey Wednesday for Intro to Technical Analysis Webinar

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 08:20:08 -0500

I’m pleased to announce that I will be giving a webinar presentation as part of Trader Kingdom’s “Technical Trading 101” webinar series!

I’ll be giving the introductory webinar this Wednesday, March 2nd at 3:30 CST and it’s entitled simply:

“Technical Analysis – Which Approach is Best for You?”

GLD Glitters & a TLT Double Dipper

Bob Barnes — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 08:19:01 -0500

Scenario # 2 took hold today with the VIX plunging 10% as oversold conditions moved back towards mean reversion parity. GLD climbed back into the bull saddle with a nice .66% gain . . not a new high but an impressive return to it’s close 2 days ago.

What Could Stop the Dollar from Falling?

Kathy Lien — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 06:40:10 -0500

The Power of Buying Stocks at the 50-Day

David Grandey — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 06:02:46 -0500

When the S&P 500 and the OTC Comp were both in nosebleed levels hugging trend channel resistance we talked about what happens to leading names when the markets pullback. We talked about the power of the 50-day average and sure enough that's exactly what happened to them - they tagged the 50 day and POW ZOOM TO THE MOON ALICE.
We featured CMG, NFLX, BIDU, FFIV, OPEN and SWKS to our paying subscribers all this week. One look at them now shows how the 50 day strikes again!

VIX Futures: Neither Forecasting Nor Wagging

Jared Woodard — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 05:53:28 -0500

The term structure of VIX futures is best approached not as an actual forecast of market volatility but as a complex measure of uncertainty, historical tendencies, and demand in S&P 500 options markets. A significant amount of the persistent contango in the VIX futures term structure is just a feature of the positive relationship between uncertainty and time.

Clarity on Global X's New ASEAN ETF

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 02:46:34 -0500

ETF Showdown: Big Battle Among Small-Caps

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 02:38:28 -0500

Vanguard Cuts Prices On VWO, 5 Other ETFs

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 01:34:55 -0500

The Capricious Nature of Junior Resource Stocks

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 01:26:43 -0500

Junior resource stocks are fickle little things. And most investors who dabble in this realm are fully aware of their capricious nature. One of the best ways to describe owning these stocks can be summed up by one of the most famous lines in literary history, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”

Inflation Scorecard: More Dollar Erosion

Brad Zigler — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 12:29:44 -0500

This week, gold knocked the world's reserve currencies down a peg - with the sole exception of the Swiss franc. While the Swissie moved up 0.6 percent against bullion, sterling slid 2.0 percent and the euro declined 1.0 percent. The yen gave up 0.6 percent to gold.
For the week ending Thursday, inflation in U.S. dollar-denominated assets accelerated:

State Street Debuts Two New Emerging Markets ETFs

Michael Johnston — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 12:21:27 -0500

USD: Downward Revision to GDP Boosts Chance of QE3

Kathy Lien — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 12:18:00 -0500

Stock futures are higher this morning but the dollar remains weak against the Japanese Yen. The euro and British pound on the other hand are suffering from continued risk aversion. U.S. growth was revised lower in the fourth quarter from 3.2 to 2.8 percent. U.S. personal consumption was also revised lower to 4.1 from 4.4 percent while core PCE was revised higher to 0.5 from 0.4 percent. A comparison of the first and second quarter GDP revisions show that weak consumer spending and a decline in imports were the biggest drags to GDP.

Four Reasons to Be in Cash This Weekend

Jeff White — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 11:35:05 -0500
Last week, I closed out a few swing trades and shifted to cash. I’m glad. I’ve day traded and it’s been a good week, and I didn’t need to roll the dice overnight in order to turn a profit.
Heading into Friday, I think there are 4 good reasons to remain in cash over the weekend:

McCall’s Call: ETF Mideast Protection Kit

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 11:27:44 -0500

New PowerShares ETF Tracks Senior Loans

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 11:27:08 -0500

The Impact Of Surging Oil Prices On The US Consumer: A Primer

Tyler Durden — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 11:21:39 -0500

Courtesy of John Lohman
A quick talking point: assuming a pure crowding out, the effective $700 tax on consumers reduces GDP by 0.5% (disclosure, the sensitivity is higher than some on the street who use 2.5-2.75 cents for every $1 in oil).

Bright Days Ahead for Solar ETF TAN

Jim Slagle — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 11:16:25 -0500

Strategic Briefing: Oil & Economic Outlook

Jim Picerno — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 09:27:03 -0500

Rising Oil Prices Pose New Threat to U.S. Economy
New York Times/Feb 24

Frontrunning: February 25th

Tyler Durden — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 09:25:11 -0500

One Sign SPY is Ready to Bounce

Rob Hanna — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 09:24:06 -0500
Sparked by overseas news the SPY has closed down 3 days in a row. I'm starting to see evidence that it is at a point where a bounce is becoming likely. The study below was posted in the Quantifinder yesterday. It was last shown in the 10/28/09 blog. I have updated the results.

TLT New Lazy Man Pick

Bob Barnes — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 09:22:35 -0500

The Best Country ETFs For Managing Middle East Oil Price Fears

Gary Gordon — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 07:14:20 -0500

Stock assets would have pulled back soon enough. The fact that we have Libya oil production uncertainty is merely the profit-taking excuse that many had been waiting for.

Keep in mind, most of the world’s indexes had been retreating already. Many emerging markets had been flirting with full-fledged corrections before crude spiked. Even Europe had been flatter than a pre-Columbus nautical map.

Small Oil Build, Bigger Gasoline Drawdown

Brad Zigler — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 07:12:30 -0500

A smallish build in domestic crude oil inventories disclosed by the U.S. Energy Department disappointed virtually every prognosticator this morning.
The American Petroleum Institute estimated a 163,000-barrel hike, while analysts expected inventories to increase by 1.1 million to 1.4 million barrels. Definitive Energy Department data, however, showed a middling 800,000-barrel build to 346.7 million barrels.

How's YOUR Gold Miner Doing?

Brad Zigler — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 07:11:52 -0500

The recent rebound in gold prices, coupled with a buoyant (well, until this week, anyway) equity market, prompted many investors to wonder if their fortunes would be better hitched to mining stocks than bullion. Based on the performance of large gold producers over the past three months, the answer's an unqualified "maybe."
A little explanation's in order.

Check on Intraday Market Internals Shows Make or Break for S&P 500

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 07:10:11 -0500

In my prior post about key inflection points on the three major US Stock Market Indexes, we saw quick, easy reference levels to watch, including 1,300 for the S&P 500.

Let’s now take that a step further and check-up on intraday market internals which – as of this moment – are painting a bullish picture at this key “Make or Break” chart level.

A failure for bulls to capitalize on this support and bullish signal from internals could spell disaster for them.

USD: Fed Pres Talks QE3, Oil Gives up Gains

Kathy Lien — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 07:07:05 -0500

Commodity Wrap: Lighten Up!

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 07:03:22 -0500

SSgA Launches 2 Emerging Markets ETFs

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 06:26:44 -0500

Global X Plans Slew Of Small Cap ETFs

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 02:26:46 -0500

Presenting Laszlo Birinyi's "Teflon 20" Must Short Momo Names

Tyler Durden — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 02:05:12 -0500

Consider the Boom in the Bust; Consider the Bust in the Boom

David Merkel — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 01:15:10 -0500

When you are in the bust phase of the credit cycle, there are no good solutions. Do you try to reflate? You can try to, and you will succeed (sort of), if the Fed Funds rate maintains a respectable positive value that does not kill savers. But you might not succeed, because there is not enough interest margin available to capitalize today. That is where we are today, and so the Fed moves on to QE, where any asset can be financed via the Fed’s fiat.

Joint "Flash Crash" Report: Wise Words From Regulators

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 01:06:31 -0500

New Oil ETF and a New ETF Provider

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 01:04:20 -0500

FactorShares Debuts New Breed Of Leveraged ETFs

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 12:56:34 -0500

Five ETFs That Need to Die

Jim Slagle — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 12:55:44 -0500

New Home Sales Plummet 13% To 284,000 Annualized Rate, Lowest Ever

Tyler Durden — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 12:35:26 -0500

Oil and Middle East Require Defensive Bias

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 12:28:27 -0500

We head into Thursday’s trading session with an extended market that now has two negative fundamental factors to focus on; the Middle East and rapidly rising oil prices. Regardless of how long oil prices remain elevated, the market sees it as a reason to sell. According to today’s Wall Street Journal:

Game On

Derek Hernquist — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 12:14:46 -0500

For 2 days, I had to let things play out. Once it became obvious on Tuesday that new highs were off the table, it was time to let the downside probing begin. And begin it did. I had no play coming into it…only a very few could have avoided the short side through the 2011 rally and then shorted at a high enough price that this week gave them a profitable trade. And through Tuesday and Wednesday, I saw no way to identify a low compelling enough to offset the energy of the selloff.

Five New ETFs to Play Spread Trades

Kevin Grewal — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 12:01:45 -0500

Recently, New York-based asset management firm, FactorAdvisors announced the launch of the first ever family of spread exchange traded funds (ETFs) which will enable investors to simultaneously hold a long and short position in one leveraged ETF.

Five ETFs to Play Silver's Uptrend

Kevin Grewal — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 11:58:40 -0500

As political uncertainty in Africa and the Middle East continues to prevail, commodities, in particularly crude oil, gold and silver have surged. As for the future, it appears to remain bright for all three of these commodities, but especially so for silver.

In addition to political uncertainty, macroeconomic forces have been favorable for the metal. Increases in money supply and a record budget deficit have many concerned about the overall strength of the dollar and a reduction in the purchasing power of the nation.

Dollar Lower as Oil Breaks $100, No Help from Data

Kathy Lien — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 11:50:39 -0500

Mixed Messages In January Durable Goods Report

Jim Picerno — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 11:47:12 -0500

January may have been harsh on the labor market and other sectors of the economy, but there's no sign of a winter chill in today's durable goods report for last month. New orders for manufactured durable goods surged 2.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, the highest monthly gain since last September. But the robust advance in the top-line number for new orders comes with some messy details.

Jobless Claims Fall As Oil Prices Rise

Jim Picerno — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 11:47:01 -0500

Zaiteku and China's January Inflation

Michael Pettis — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 08:41:51 -0500

A large part of my newsletter earlier this week discussed emergent scandals in the railway industry and their implications for the overinvestment debate, and this was even before the Alibaba scandals broke, but I think a lot more interest this week surrounded the inflation numbers. Last week the National Bureau of Statistics released inflation data for the month of January:

Rebalancing & Fundamental Indexing

Jim Picerno — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 08:36:47 -0500

The original “fundamental indexing” ETF—RAFI US 1000 ETF (PRF)—recently celebrated its fifth birthday, and there was reason to celebrate. The fund, which was launched in December 2005, posted a tidy premium in its first five years vs. its competitors: the likes of the S&P 500 and Russell 1000. Fundamental indexing, as practiced by Rob Arnott’s benchmarking designs at Research Affiliates, seems to be working.

Frontrunning: February 24th

Tyler Durden — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 08:33:34 -0500

VIX Futures: Neither Forecasting Nor Wagging

Jared Woodard — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 08:31:02 -0500

The term structure of VIX futures is best approached not as an actual forecast of market volatility but as a complex measure of uncertainty, historical tendencies, and demand in S&P 500 options markets. A significant amount of the persistent contango in the VIX futures term structure is just a feature of the positive relationship between uncertainty and time.

GLD Is NEVER Going Down

Bob Barnes — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 08:28:18 -0500

USD: Could Inflation Force the Fed to End QE?

Kathy Lien — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 06:21:36 -0500

Commodities Wrap: Sleep Deprivation

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 04:59:31 -0500

Time To Buy Stocks In The Face Of Fear?

David Grandey — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 04:17:05 -0500

The MARKETS HATE UNCERTAINTY and that’s where we are at currently.

Grounded: $100 Oil Spells Doom For Airline ETFs

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 02:27:13 -0500

Doug Kass Covering SPY Shorts

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 02:02:39 -0500

Old Media, Through an ETF

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 01:59:03 -0500

Amid Turmoil, Pessimists Miss Out on Profits

Dock David Treece — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 01:49:40 -0500

Narrow Exposure Getting Easier to Implement

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 01:44:21 -0500

And So Gold Is Under $10 From All-Time Highs

Tyler Durden — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 01:43:34 -0500

Remember when all "experts", pundits, and all other idiot verietals couldn't shut up how gold was going to triple digits imminently? Yes, neither do we.

Agribusiness Stocks Double-Whammied

Brad Zigler — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 01:20:21 -0500

Yesterday was an object lesson in systematic risk. Tuesday, the U.S. markets played catch-up with the Mideast turmoil after the Presidents Day holiday. Metals and oil shot up while equities tumbled.
Some stocks slid further than others. Among the hardest-hit were agribusiness issues, off nearly 4 percent against the S&P 500's 2 percent slide. Equity market risk wasn't the only drag on ags, though. The commodities in which many agribusiness companies deal also slipped 2 percent on Tuesday.

Inelasticity of Demand for Gold ETFs

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 01:06:35 -0500

5 Ways to Profit from Revolution in the Middle East

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 12:55:46 -0500

Not Enough for Retirement? Here’s What You Can Do

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 12:32:37 -0500

Shiller: US Housing Market Is Vulnerable

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 12:22:17 -0500

Market Calls for Incremental Approach

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 12:22:07 -0500

As of 7:50 a.m. ET, the markets are stable, which is a good sign for now. The situation with Col. Moammar Gadhafi needs to be monitored closely. This morning’s Wall Street Journal (WSJ) provides a good visual of the unrest:

Global ETF Majors Eye Indian Market

Jim Slagle — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 12:21:30 -0500

Geithner Says Not To Worry About Surging Oil Prices

Tyler Durden — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 12:18:53 -0500

You really can't make this shit up: "The economy is in a much stronger position to handle” rising oil prices, Tim Geithner said today during a Bloomberg Breakfast in Washington. “Central banks have a lot of experience in managing these things." We are, all of us, now doomed.
Bloomberg's account of one lunatic's daily ramblings in a collapsing world:

Existing Homes Data Fails to Help the Dollar

Kathy Lien — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 11:51:24 -0500

New Oil ETF (CRUD) Debuts

Michael Johnston — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 11:47:54 -0500

Teucrium, the firm that debuted the only pure play corn ETF last year and recently added a natural gas fund, announced the launch of its third exchange-traded product today. The Teucrium WTI Crude Oil Fund (CRUD) offers exposure to futures contracts for WTI crude oil, also known as Texas Light Sweet Crude Oil, traded on the NYMEX. Unlike many of the ETFs in the Oil & Gas ETFdb Category, CRUD spreads exposure across multiple maturities, weighting holdings as follows:
The nearest-to-spot June or December contract, weighted 35%

USO vs. BNO: Explaining the Big Gaps in Oil ETF Performance

Michael Johnston — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 11:45:32 -0500

Frontrunning: February 23rd

Tyler Durden — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 09:12:37 -0500

Internal Market Weakness & Snap Declines

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 08:27:58 -0500

I’m a big fan of monitoring price swings with market internals, such as TICK, Breadth, and Volume Difference, as these can give you early warning signs of a potential short-term turn in price.

That was the case two times in the short-term frame – so let’s turn now to our updated SP500 and Market Internal chart:

Inflation Expectations & Rising Oil Prices

Jim Picerno — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 08:25:54 -0500

The political upheaval in Libya has pushed oil prices to a 28-month high. Whenever crude runs skyward, fears of higher inflation usually follow, and this time is no different.

TLT Bump

Bob Barnes — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 08:24:33 -0500

Commodities Wrap: 3-5% Daily Swings...Yikes

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 07:05:23 -0500

Eat Pray Love: One Adviser's Perspective on European ETFs

Gary Gordon — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 06:54:24 -0500

I went skiing at Snow Summit in Big Bear over the holiday weekend. The slopes at the resort were spectacularly groomed, and Saturday’s massive blizzard treated visitors to a foot or more of fresh powder.

A severe downpour in the city of Big Bear? From an investment adviser’s vantage point, the actuality was more than a little ironic.

Nonetheless, it was an extraordinary mini-vacation. When we weren’t skiing, we were shoveling. And when neither driving nor skiing were an option, well… we channel-surfed the cabin’s flat screen.

Forex: Risk Off! But Inflation Complicates Things...

Kathy Lien — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 04:08:19 -0500

10 Investment Ideas That STILL Don’t Work

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 03:43:51 -0500

Oil ETFs Surge As $100 Oil Returns

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 02:27:16 -0500

Some Other Large Gap-Down Stats to Consider

Rob Hanna — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 01:45:47 -0500

I ran a test looking at gaps down of 0.75% or more following a US - only holiday. No edge was evident.

Below are results of some other studies looking at large gaps down from high levels:

Points On Metals ETF Investing, From a Pro

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 01:41:05 -0500

Market Makers At Center Of Flash Crash Probe

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 01:34:19 -0500

Investors Flocking To Safety (TLT)

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 01:19:13 -0500

Middle East ETFs Under Pressure As Protests Intensify

Michael Johnston — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 12:59:48 -0500

Investors have become familiar with the term "contagion" in recent years, but most are accustomed to hearing the phenomenon discussed in relation to sovereign debt defaults in Europe or across U.S. municipalities. But in recent days the Middle East has seen a wave of revolutionary protests and rallies spread across the region, as what began as calls for democratic overhauls in Cairo has quickly spread to a handful of other countries.

Gold ETF For Trend Followers (TBAR) Debuts

Michael Johnston — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 12:57:22 -0500

Royal Bank of Scotland debuted its third exchange-traded note in the U.S. market today, rolling out a product that shifts exposure between gold bullion and low risk Treasuries depending on the recent performance of the precious metal. The RBS Gold Trendpilot ETN (TBAR) will be linked to an index that invests in gold bullion when the metal's price closes above the 200-day simple moving average for at least five consecutive sessions. When gold is below that threshold for five consecutive sessions, the index to which TBAR is linked will provide exposure to 3-month Treasury bills.

E-Trade ETF Plan Lacks Commodity Alternative

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 12:48:56 -0500

Portfolio Construction Philosophy

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 12:42:24 -0500

PowerShares, SPDR Settle Suit Over Tickers

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 12:40:09 -0500

Ag Bloodbath: Wheat, Corn And Soybeans All Limit Down

Tyler Durden — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 12:36:32 -0500

Tech ETFs and the Broadband Push

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 12:31:53 -0500

Here Is Your First Smartphone ETF

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 12:30:36 -0500

Oil Service HOLDRs Rolling Over (OIH)

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 12:29:52 -0500

Case Shiller: US Housing Slumping

Jim Slagle — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 12:28:49 -0500

3 Things I'm Watching

Derek Hernquist — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 12:11:39 -0500

I would imagine 90% of traders and advisors are happy about this down opening. We had an options expiration float higher on top of weeks of floating higher on top of months of floating higher. This market has been indestructible…the thought that unrest in Libya is going to mark the end of its run seems foolish given the resilience we’ve seen. So buy the dip?

A Great Trading System for Today's Teflon Markets

John Nyaradi — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 11:58:26 -0500

In recent months, fundamentals seem to have been thrown out the window as markets continue a relentless climb in the face of revolution in the Middle East, potential threats to oil supplies, a double dip in housing, unstoppably high unemployment and a new recession starting in Europe. Technical indicators work no better as sentiment, stochastic, negative divergences and RSI all point to a seriously overbought market long overdue for a correction.

Weekend Crossmarket Fallout from Overseas News

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 11:56:03 -0500

If you are just returning from a vacation this three-day weekend, you may be shocked to find high volatile moves in the futures markets.

Let’s take a quick end-of-holiday look at four cross-markets to see the fall-out (big moves up and down) as a result of violence spreading through Africa – namely Libya.

Forex Market Hit by Risk Aversion, CAD Lower on Retail Sales

Kathy Lien — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 11:51:22 -0500

It is a very active morning in the foreign exchange market with an earthquake in New Zealand sending the NZD/USD sharply lower while hawkish comments from ECB officials has helped the euro recover all of its Asian session losses. U.S. consumer confidence is due for release at 10:00am NY Time but even before the release, the dollar has traded higher against most of the major currencies. The only currency that performed better than the U.S. dollar is the Swiss Franc which indicates that risk aversion is the dominant theme in the currency market today.

Once Again, Equities Charge Higher

Drew Birenbaum — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 09:48:59 -0500

EUR/USD Tests Retracement of Friday's Move

Greg Michalowski — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 09:46:35 -0500

Currencies on the Brink of New Highs

Kathy Lien — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 09:43:47 -0500

Weighing the Week Ahead: The Beat Goes On

Jeff Miller — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 09:41:16 -0500

The extended stock market rally has everyone checking the record books and looking for explanations. Your understanding of the rally is important since it helps to predict when it will end.

Frontrunning: February 22nd

Tyler Durden — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 09:40:07 -0500

Strategic Briefing: Libyan Oil & Political Crisis

Jim Picerno — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 09:39:10 -0500

Oil Rises to Highest Since 2008 as Libya Unrest Stokes Concern
Bloomberg/Feb 21

Volatility Spread for Tuesday

Bob Barnes — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 08:51:19 -0500

Forget the Big Names

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 06:36:43 -0500

For a moment, remember that it takes money to move these stocks. OK, maybe not much to move them, but definitely to keep them there. We’ve seen a relentless bid under the markets for days/weeks/months, putting pressure on portfolio managers to “keep up”. Thats not strong hands, that’s weak hands that will run at the first sign of trouble.

History Repeating with TICK Forecasting Intraday Reversal Lesson

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 06:35:36 -0500

Did you learn the lesson I showed this Wednesday entitled “Using TICK to Forecast Intraday Reversals?“ If you didn’t, here’s yet another chance to learn the important lesson – as history repeated the set-up/pattern almost exactly today that formed on Wednesday.

Let’s look at today’s chart as another example of this critical concept:

USD: Weakness Reflects Optimism

Kathy Lien — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 06:33:26 -0500

Inflation Fears Weigh on ETFs

Jim Slagle — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 02:23:40 -0500

Stock Selloffs Ignite Dollar Rallies

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 02:20:01 -0500

Big Losers From the ETF Revolution

Jim Slagle — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 02:17:51 -0500

First Trust Debuts Smartphone ETF (FONE)

Michael Johnston — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 12:40:32 -0500

What's Livening Up the Forex Market

Kathy Lien — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 12:19:38 -0500

With no U.S. economic data on the calendar, it was suppose to be a relatively quiet trading session. However the surprise reserve requirement ratio (RRR) hike by China and the overwhelmingly strong U.K. retail sales report livened up the currency market. The dollar is mixed this morning, trading lower against the euro, British pound and Canadian dollar and higher against the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and New Zealand dollar. The lack of consistency in the dollar's performance indicates that the focus is not on the greenback but on currency specific news.

Inflation Scorecard: Gold Bounces Back

Brad Zigler — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 12:08:27 -0500

Bullion squared off against the world's reserve currencies this week and took the round. The yen suffered most, losing 2.3 percent to gold. The euro fell 2.0 percent, while sterling slipped 1.1 percent. The Swiss franc inched 0.7 percent lower.
On the dollar front, for the week ending Thursday:
Morning gold fixes in London averaged $1,368 and finished 1.4 percent higher at $1,377; COMEX spot settled at $1,385, 1.7 percent higher on the week; average daily volume fell 17.2 percent to 117,912 contracts; open interest jumped 25,812 contracts to 486,208.

EUR/USD Corrective Selling

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 09:17:18 -0500

Money Supply Data & Inflation

Jeff Miller — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 09:14:15 -0500

Yesterday I looked at several differing and important interpretations about defining and measuring inflation. I promised to take a deeper look at the Fed and the money supply.

You might think that considering money supply data would be easy and non-controversial. You would be wrong!

The Case of Michael Pento

Frontrunning: February 18th

Tyler Durden — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 09:12:47 -0500

The Return of Budget Busters

Jim Picerno — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 09:11:43 -0500

Now it's getting serious. House Speaker John Boehner warns that he's won't sign off on a short-term spending extension to keep the deficit-laden federal government operating. "Read my lips," he says. "We are going to cut spending." The budget showdown is here.

FXI on Upswing

Bob Barnes — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 09:09:38 -0500

Dollar Weakens on Belief that Fed will Trail Behind

Kathy Lien — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 06:08:15 -0500

SPDR, PowerShares Settle Ticker Dispute

Michael Johnston — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 05:14:41 -0500

Invesco PowerShares and the Select Sector SPDRs have come to an agreement in a dispute over the use of similar tickers, with PowerShares voluntarily changing the symbols for its nine S&P SmallCap Sector ETFs. In April 2010 PowerShares launched a series of sector-specific funds focusing on small cap stocks. While the Select Sector SPDRs focus on large cap stocks, the PowerShares small suite carves up the S&P SmallCap 600 Index into nine major sectors (there are some other differences between the funds as well, such as the treatment of telecom stocks).

Charting the Cross Market Inflation Fallout from QE2 Stimulus

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 03:30:51 -0500

The topic of QE2 and endlessly rising markets has been the talk of the town lately – and for very good reason.

Let’s take a quick objectively look at some of the cross-market charts with a focus on trend and percentage change since the July period, including August 27th when the first rumors of QE2 began.

You know that markets are up, but do you know by how much? You might very well be surprised.

Here’s the big winners from mid-2010 to present:

India ETFs For Bargain Hunting...Mining ETFs For Momentum

Gary Gordon — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 03:26:01 -0500

Jim Stack, editor of InvesTech Research, is giving bull market enthusiasts reason to remain optimistic. According to Jim, 80% of bull markets over the last 8 decades lasted more than 2 years and 50% lasted more than 3 years. (Note: The current bull market will turn “2″ on March 9, 2011.)

The Four Flavors of Inflation

Brad Zigler — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 03:07:05 -0500

The middle of every month is made more lively by the release of inflation data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. These much-maligned (at least in some quarters) indicators spark punditry like you wouldn't believe. Or maybe you would. Believe, I mean. In the punditry.

Where IS Gold Headed?

Brad Zigler — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 03:06:26 -0500

For some investors, the headline question is a forgone conclusion. For others, gold's price destination isn't so certain. Answering the question in great part depends upon one's time horizon.
Traders tend to have short—or shorter—investment horizons. That's not to say that they may not hold gold core positions for the long term. Many do, while they trade in and out of gold to capture intermediate- or short-term price trends.

Global X Debuts ASEAN ETF (ASEA)

Michael Johnston — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 01:22:31 -0500

Global X rolled out the latest addition to its rapidly-expanding ETF lineup on Thursday, launching the FTSE ASEAN 40 ETF (ASEA). The new fund seeks to replicate the FTSE/ASEAN 40 Index, a benchmark that is made up of the largest companies in the original five ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand. ASEA is the first U.S.-listed ETF to offer exposure to these five economies, though there are "pure play" options for investing in each of the ASEAN member countries individually.

The Price Of A BMW 335i In Singapore is What???

Tyler Durden — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 01:02:54 -0500

Creative ETF Ideas to Hedge Against Global Unrest

Michael Johnston — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 12:57:27 -0500

U.S. Data Feeds into Global Risk Rally

Kathy Lien — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 12:45:05 -0500

Central bank officials around the world are growing more optimistic and their rosy sentiment has helped to spark a risk rally in the currency market. Pro-cyclical currencies such the euro and British pound are trading higher against the U.S. dollar thanks to hawkish comments from Bank of England Monetary Policy Member Sentance and Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Lowe, both of whom expressed concerns about inflation pressures.

Consumer Prices Rise In January

Jim Picerno — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 12:18:36 -0500

In a time of soaring commodity prices, it’s no surprise to learn that consumer price inflation turned modestly higher last month. The debate is over what the latest jump in the CPI Index means for inflationary pressures down the road. Is there a new inflationary surge heading our way, as some analysts warn? Or is the firming of prices last month merely a sign that disinflation/deflationary trend of last year has been reversed and stabilized?

Silver Hits Highest Price Since March 7, 1980

Tyler Durden — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 12:13:18 -0500

The "correction" is over. The last time silver was here, the 10 Year was at 12.45%, the 2s10s was inverted -210 bps, and gold was $600.

Commodity ETFs: Physical vs. Futures

Tom Lydon — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 10:32:20 -0500

If you're looking to invest or hedge with commodity exchange traded funds (ETFs), you've got two general options: futures and physically-backed.

Frontrunning: February 17th

Tyler Durden — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 08:21:04 -0500

Research Review: The US Labor Market

Jim Picerno — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 08:20:04 -0500

What Is the New Normal Unemployment Rate?
Justin Weidner and John Williams | San Francisco Fed | Feb 14, 2011

XLB Perks Up; TLT Stumbles

Bob Barnes — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 08:18:49 -0500

Everything You Need to Know About Inflation

Jeff Miller — Thu, 17 Feb 2011 08:16:41 -0500

Here at "A Dash" we like to keep our blog agenda aligned with the most important economic and investment problems. Only a heartbeat ago, that was concern about global deflation and crashing earnings. The focus has now shifted, almost seamlessly, to worries about inflation.

Using Intraday TICK Signals to Forecast Reversals

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 07:01:46 -0500

I wanted to document what the TICK had to say about today’s sharp reversal and lunch-time market drop.

The TICK gave a classic “One-Two” Punch Warning Signal… and if you missed the signal, take a moment to look at the chart of the SPY and TICK and learn what the TICK had to say and when it said it in advance of the turn.

SPY and TICK – 1-min chart:

Forex: Upgraded Outlook from Fed Drives Risk Rally

Kathy Lien — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 05:57:13 -0500

Overshoot?

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 05:48:24 -0500

Iranian news aside, this fresh breakout “feels” like overshoot to me. Just a gut feeling — internals remain bullish.

Cotton ETN Leaps 6% As Prices Hit New Record

Jim Slagle — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 05:36:37 -0500

Leveraged ETFs & Calls for More Regulation: Caveat Emptor

Jim Slagle — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 05:27:56 -0500

Commodities Wrap: Traders Market

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 05:06:44 -0500

Profits Squeeze

Larry Kudlow — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 04:55:23 -0500

"Don't fight the Fed" is an old stock market adage. Successful investors pay a lot of attention to it. It means that when the central bank is easy, it's bullish for stocks. And when the bank turns tight, it's bearish for stocks. Obviously, the Bernanke Fed has been ultra-easy for a couple of years now: The bullish stock market has just doubled its value from the early March 2009 bottom.

Commodity ETF Ideas: Profiting From Backwardation

Michael Johnston — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 02:13:45 -0500

The Path to Shorting is Long

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 02:11:06 -0500

This bull run of recent months should have taught lessons to anyone lacking respect for the power of markets. Macro thinking is just an intellectual exercise unless backed by a sound plan of entry conditions, position size, and exit conditions. What we’ve had is a market that alternates from “Buy” to “Stop Buying” and back to “Buy”; we’ve had only some stock-specific “Sell” triggers, and almost nothing resembling a “Short”.

Economy Headed for Calmer Waters?

Dock David Treece — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 01:31:48 -0500

Anyone who doubted, pre-election, that markets like gridlock need only survey recent headlines and earnings reports to realize just how wrong they were.

According to one Bloomberg article companies are finally loosening their grip on cash reserves, which they had clutched so tightly since the financial crisis of 2008.

Surprises All 'Round for Oil Stocks

Brad Zigler — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 01:31:29 -0500

That's "stocks" meaning inventories, not securities. Not that refiner stocks aren't doing well. They are.
The reason for refiners' good fortunes is cheap oil. Well, make that relatively cheap oil. There's plenty of West Texas Intermediate or equivalent grades to refine when an unusually cold winter has driven product prices higher.
Today, the U.S. Energy Department surprised both industry and Street prognosticator with its weekly report on oil and fuel inventories.

On the Percentage of Market Cap held by Domestic Stock ETFs

David Merkel — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 01:28:20 -0500

I don’t have all the resources that I would want in order to do complex analyses. Give me the database, and the right software, and I can do amazing things.

Even with limited data, and cruddy software, I still have something interesting this evening. On January 21st, I made measurements of domestic equity ETFs to try to analyze what percentage of domestic equities were held by ETFs.

Three ETFs for World's Water Shortage

Kevin Grewal — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 01:03:07 -0500

Both macro and microeconomic forces suggest that the global water sector is destined to see exponential growth paving the path to opportunity for the PowerShares Water Resources (PHO), the PowerShares Global Water (PIO) and the Guggenheim S&P Global Water (CGW).

Three Reasons to Consider the Germany ETF

Gary Gordon — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 01:02:27 -0500

The closest thing to a government debt crisis in the U.S. has been the exodus from muni bonds. Yet very few people talk about the possibility of the U.S. actually defaulting on federal obligations. Rising rates aside, the world seems to believe… at least for the moment… that Americans are capable of getting their fiscal house in order.

Ireland, Greece? Hmmmmmmm… not so much. In fact, investors still doubt that Portugal can resolve its own problems, as the 10-year yield on Portuguese treasuries remain near euro-era record highs.

U.S. ETFs Leave Emerging Markets in the Dust

Jim Slagle — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 12:48:52 -0500

Tuckwell: Where ETF Gold Is Vaulted Matters

Jim Slagle — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 12:46:46 -0500

Fidelity Adds 5 iShares ETFs to Free Trading Program

Jim Slagle — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 12:42:18 -0500

Housing: Still Going Nowhere Fast

Jim Picerno — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 12:36:52 -0500

There's not much cheer in housing these days, unless you're a buyer with a fair amount of cash. Otherwise, the depressed state of residential real estate rolls on. Today's update on building permits and new housing starts doesn't change much, although with each month it's becoming clearer that the bleeding has stopped. There's also the usual bit of volatility on a monthly basis, and sometimes that dispatches a bit of good news. But it doesn't mean much when you look at the big picture for this market. A recovery worthy of the name is still nowhere in sight.

Dollar Powers Higher After Housing Data Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Kathy Lien — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 12:25:15 -0500

Today's U.S. economic reports were not nearly as important as yesterday's retail sales report but currency traders have taken to the data very positively. Renewed strength in the housing market and growing inflationary pressures helped to lift the dollar against all of the major currencies. Construction companies restarted their projects after the holidays, lifting housing starts by 14.6 percent. There was a sharp uptick in building permits at the end of the year and accompanying rise in starts last month shows that builders are moving forward on their projects.

Remember to Check Market Breadth and Here's Why

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 12:18:00 -0500

With the S&P 500 recently hitting its “Double-Up” point from the March 2009 low of 666, did you get exited and rush to get long… or did you take a moment to check current market internals – particularly breadth?
If not, let’s slow the train down a bit and do a quick check-up on current S&P 500 Market Breadth to look “under the hood” of the market and get a picture that price can’t show by itself.

Here’s the current hourly chart of S&P 500 Breadth:

Key Level to Watch on Weekly and Daily Emerging Markets EEM

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 12:12:14 -0500

The popular Emerging Markets ETF – symbol EEM – is currently sitting on key weekly and daily support, or more specifically, a key turning point in structure, so let’s take a look at this level and the immediate targets to watch depending on what happens here at this key point.

First, the Weekly Chart shows the level we’re watching:

Brent Crude Passes $104

Tyler Durden — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 12:09:20 -0500

This is not the $104 brent crude you are looking for. Ignore everything and just BTFWW3.

Frontrunning: February 16th

Tyler Durden — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 08:45:38 -0500

The Thrill of Victory Meets The Agony of Defeat

Jim Picerno — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 08:20:24 -0500

Morningstar reminds that there are lots of fund choices for diversifying across asset classes these days, perhaps too many. "Not only has the number of mutual funds expanded by the thousands over the past decade, but numerous exchange-traded and closed-end funds, many of them with very specialized, even exotic, mandates, have also popped onto the scene," writes Gregg Wolper,

XLB Stumbles; TLT Perks Up

Bob Barnes — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 08:18:41 -0500

Soros Boosts Stake in GLD

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 07:02:51 -0500

USD: Unfazed by Weaker Retail Sales

Kathy Lien — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 05:56:28 -0500

Pivot Resistance

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 02:40:21 -0500

Will we see the prototypical end-of-day buy back?

It's Good To Be A Refiner

Brad Zigler — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 02:19:27 -0500

The recent volatility in domestic crude oil prices—the downdraft, in particular—has been a boon to oil refiners. This month, the cost of West Texas Intermediate, a favored grade for gasoline production, has fallen 8 percent. Meantime, wholesale prices for gasoline output have risen nearly a percentage point.
Lower input costs and steady-to-higher outputs translates into higher profit margins. Or should, anyway. We'll come back to that thought in a moment.

Comparing the International Oil ETF Plays

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 02:15:24 -0500

Digesting Obama's Budgetary Kool-Aid

Tyler Durden — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 12:56:04 -0500

Since the president's latest Kool Aid, pardon, budget, is making inexplicable waves in the media for some odd reason (why, we wonder - the realized and near-term projected deficit will be revised higher by about 50% within 3-6 months with 100% confidence), here are some additional interactive charts and forensic drill downs to help readers make some sense of the latest plate of steaming lies served piping hot by the propagandura. And no, there is absolutely no chance the deficit will be cut in half by the end of Obama's first term as had been promised at the peak of Obama's popularity.

Chuck Schumer On The "Biggest Issue" In The NYSE Takeover

Tyler Durden — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 01:53:50 -0500

Forget that the NYSE is being taken over by a German company (sorry guys, nobody is that dumb to buy the bs argument that Fidelity investors, all of whom are "undeniably" American, own both). The biggest nut apparently is the supremely superficial: i.e., what will be the name of the post-merger exchange. No, this is not an Onion summary. And yes, on this issue Chuck Schumer is relentless...

Bearish Positions Accumulate in Yum! Brands (YUM)

Steve Claussen — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 01:52:24 -0500

HTC Launches Facebook Phones, First Tablet

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 01:43:03 -0500

Hougan On CNBC: Emerging Market Risks

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 01:40:38 -0500

ETF Stripping Explained – Insider Trading Scheme

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 01:29:54 -0500

Deutsche Suspends Creations on DAG

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 01:28:25 -0500

We Called It: Right On Uranium

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 01:27:30 -0500

ETFs Surge with Schwab Investors

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 01:26:35 -0500

Middle East ETF Dives As Protests Spread; Egypt Up 3%

Jim Slagle — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 01:25:26 -0500

Active ETF Filings: Northern Trust Joins the Crowd

Michael Johnston — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 12:20:43 -0500

Northern Trust, the one-time issuer that began making plans for a second run at the ETF industry last year, has joined the crowd of major financial institutions seeking approval to launch actively-managed ETFs. In a recent SEC filing, Northern Trust requested permission "to create and operate an actively-managed series of the Trust...that offers exchange-traded shares." The filing cast a wide net, noting that proposed funds could invest in foreign and domestic stocks and bonds.
Round Two

Investors Flock To Inverse Gold ETFs

Michael Johnston — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 12:17:41 -0500

Retail Sales Rise For 7th Straight Month

Jim Picerno — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 12:14:19 -0500

U.S. Retail Sales Disappoint, But Foreigners Continue to Buy Dollars

Kathy Lien — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 12:08:13 -0500

QE2 and Technical Analysis Signals in 10-Year Treasury Yields

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 12:05:39 -0500

Hmmm – if you just listened to the headlines, you would figure 10-year Note Yields would be going lower due to the QE2 Treasury Purchasing Plan from the Federal Reserve.

But not only is that NOT what happened, but the charts (technical analysis) were giving clear buy signals (rising yields) all along the way.

Let’s take a look at the chasm between words and charts, and how charts show reality via simple signals.

Here’s the 10-year Treasury Yield Daily Chart:

Will Silver Do Better Than Gold?

Steve Saville — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 12:03:52 -0500
Many analysts are convinced that silver is going to outperform gold this year and for years to come. Are they right?
We don't know. What we do know is that: a) most of the recent silver-related commentary has focused on silver's upside potential and has not mentioned, or has glossed over, silver's downside risk, and b) silver bulls are generally ignoring the relationship between the silver/gold ratio and the economic growth theme. These two points go together in that silver's downside risk is linked to the potential for the 'growth trade' to collapse.

Crisis High 2011

Clif Droke — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 11:55:30 -0500

After two years of issuing "sell" ratings on equities and making bearish pronouncements on the year-ahead economic outlook, Wall Street has finally turned bullish again. Recent analyst polls reveal the consensus outlook for 2011 is for another year of double-digit stock market gains. Even stalwart bears are starting to sound a more optimistic note on the prospects for continued economic recovery in 2011 and beyond.

EUR/USD Slows Decline, Rallies

Greg Michalowski — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 09:38:36 -0500
The data at 8:30 AM out of the US was mixed. Retail Sales were weaker (revisions were also lowered a touch). The Empire Manufacturing report was a touch stronger. Import prices showed increased prices for goods. Oil prices rising will of course lead to that result as will a weaker dollar.
The EURUSD prior to the report was falling. The price moved below support at the 50% of the days trading range at the 1.3505 level - falling to 1.3498. However, the price has moved back higher and trades toward the key 100 day MA again at 1.3541 ( blue line in the daily chart below).

Strategic Briefing: President's Budget Proposal

Jim Picerno — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 09:36:08 -0500

The White House released President Obama's 2012 budget yesterday, a document that's striking for its failure to address the main engine of the projected deficits: entitlement programs. The Republicans' budget proposal isn't published yet and so official comparisons aren't available. Meantime, the President's budget reportedly cuts the record deficit by $1.1 trillion over the next decade. Here are additional details/opinions on the numbers and the implications from various sources:

Study Suggests Market Due for Pullback

Rob Hanna — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 09:33:46 -0500

Since the 1/28 market drop due to Egyptian protests the market has risen without hardly a pause. It has now been 2 weeks since the last time SPY closed above its 5-day moving average. The 5-day is quite short-term so this is a fairly rare occurence. The study below examines other instances where this has happened.

XLB Out of the Gate

Bob Barnes — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 09:32:43 -0500

USD: Can We Count on the Consumer?

Kathy Lien — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 05:53:32 -0500

Creeping Higher sans Volume

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 05:09:32 -0500

Price is creeping higher but traders must be out with their valentines, because volume is the lowest in nearly a month's time. Internals are really running sideways as of the mid-day in spite of the general bid.

Creeping Higher Sans Volume

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 05:06:15 -0500

Price is creeping higher but traders must be out with their valentines, because volume is the lowest in nearly a month's time. Internals are really running sideways as of the mid-day in spite of the general bid.

Commodities Wrap: Will you be my Valentine?

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 04:57:22 -0500

A Look At the New Aluminum ETF (ALUM)

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 04:48:24 -0500

Where is the Crowd Headed?

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 04:09:53 -0500

Sometimes, no matter the effort, we just can’t create a clear plan. That is me for this week. I prepared even more than usual, probably because the first few clues were revealing little to me. The overall flow is overwhelmingly bullish, with long candidates outnumbering shorts by a 5:1 margin in my work. Bad news gets bought, and good news triggers rallies but not to the point of overdoing it.

Hard Asset Production And Exploration ETFs Fight Commodity Price Inflation

Gary Gordon — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 03:24:23 -0500

What’s the sound of an inflation-minded financial writer typing? Does anyone hear the “tap-tap-tap” on your keyboard?

There’s no definitive answer to the lead question with Zen Koan-like appeal, let alone the follow-up. However, I do know that if you write about something long enough, others will follow.

Here are a few examples of inflation-tracking features:

Active ETFs Stuck on Drawing Board

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 02:36:46 -0500

Commodity ETFs Get No Love From Investors

Michael Johnston — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 02:12:17 -0500

It doesn’t seem like that long ago that exchange-traded commodity products were the darlings of the ETF world. Praised for democratizing an entire asset class (and one capable of delivering non-correlated returns to investors at that), commodity ETFs saw billions of dollars of cash inflows in 2009. Investors rushed to get their hands on everything from copper to tin, and they embraced the transparency and liquidity that the exchange-traded structure had to offer.

Helicopter Ben Attacks Again

John Nyaradi — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 02:08:58 -0500
Helicopter Ben” went on the attack again in defense of quantitative easing during his appearance on February 9th before the House Budget Committee and the “Bernanke Put” remains in play as dips are bought with vigor and enthusiasm and the major indexes continue their seemingly unstoppable climb.
Additionally, the week brought good news from around the world as Egypt deposed President Mubarak and earnings reports at home continued to be largely positive.

On My Radar

Forget About the BRICs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 02:04:07 -0500

Winning Psychology

Ray Barros — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 01:10:00 -0500

This is a huge area. Dr Brett Steenbarger devoted his excellent blog to this subject for many years; Denise Shull and Nazy Massoud have excellent courses devoted to it. Clearly, I shall be unable to give D a comprehensive answer to his question.

And when I did a mindmap for this blog, the project crystallized a subconscious awareness that unlike my approach to my trading and risk management plans, my approach to psychology is not linear. I have attached the mindmap so you can see the overlapping areas.

Monday Morning Hangover

Brad Zigler — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 12:37:37 -0500

Fridays, as many readers of the column know, are given over to the weekly Inflation Scorecard, where a variety of market indicators are recapped to gauge the strength of the U.S. dollar. Among the myriad data points provided in the Scorecard is a reading of the Monetary Inflation Index.

Guggenheim Plans China Bond ETF

Michael Johnston — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 12:20:37 -0500

Guggenheim, the Chicagoland ETF issuer that has been a pioneer in the target maturity date bond ETF space, may have plans to take its fixed income lineup international. The company recently made an SEC filing detailing plans for a China bond ETF. Details on the proposed fund were scarce-no ticker symbol, expense ratio, or even underlying index were included-but the document did shed some light on what would be a first-to-market ETF idea.

Doug Kass Hearing John Pauslon Neutral On Gold

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 12:11:16 -0500

Northern Trust Files For Active ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 12:09:44 -0500

White House Budget Questions Stall ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 12:09:04 -0500

ETFs Used for Insider Trading

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 12:07:44 -0500

Emerging Outflows Taper off Dramatically

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 12:06:55 -0500

The Next Big Trades From Leading Stocks

David Grandey — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 12:06:41 -0500

When looking at the indexes:

China ETFs’ Slump Could Weigh on U.S. Stocks

Jim Slagle — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 12:06:00 -0500

Forex: The Good News and the Bad News

Kathy Lien — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 12:01:46 -0500

With no major U.S. economic data scheduled for release this morning, risk aversion and nervousness about economic conditions abroad drove investors back into the U.S. dollar. This is a big week for global economic reports and so far there have been just as many disappointments as positive surprises.
Starting with the Bad

As Brent Front Month Contract Rolls To April, Wheat Prices Soar

Tyler Durden — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 12:00:28 -0500

As more and more contracts roll to an April front month, the entire commodities curve is going parabolic.
And for purists, here is the April Brent-April WTI spread. Nothing to rejoice here either.

EUR/USD Still Selling in New York

Greg Michalowski — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 08:54:36 -0500

Selling in the EURUSD has continued in NY. Tension within the members regarding a debt restructuring in Ireland, and Greece is reluctant to sell state owned assets by as proposed by the ECB and IMF, has the EURUSD heading to the downside.  The finance ministers from the Eurozone meet today and tomorrow.

From a technical perspective the pair is testing channel support at the 1.3428 level currently. The price has moved below the declining trendline, but the price is finding profit taking buyers against the level.

Frontrunning: February 14th

Tyler Durden — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 08:52:36 -0500

NASDAQ to Challenge Decade-Long High

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 08:51:57 -0500
Once again, the equity markets closed in positive territory for the week, and we confirmed another bull market closing high.
Here is the scorecard for the week ending Friday, February 11th 2011.

The NASDAQ added 1.45% on above average volume, while the S&P 500 gained 1.4%.

For the month of February, the S&P 500 is currently up 3.35%, and the NASDAQ 4.05%.

There really isn't a whole lot I can say about this market right now.

Basically, the trend is still decisively to the upside on just about every imaginable time frame.

Budget Battles, Round 1

Jim Picerno — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 08:48:32 -0500

House Speaker John Boehner wants to know “when are we going to get serious about cutting spending?" Perhaps today’s the day. The White House will formally release its 2012 budget plan later this morning, complete with a reported $1 trillion-plus in cuts.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Some Worries Resolved

Jeff Miller — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 08:46:51 -0500

Developments last week helped to resolve some key market worries. It should be cause for celebration.

Change in Egypt came with less blood and better future prospects than most expected. This is good and important news.

XLB Continues Lazy Man Run

Bob Barnes — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 08:44:13 -0500

Pullback Schmullback

Jeff Pietsch — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 04:39:53 -0500

Bulls can thank Mubarak for new highs. Internals remain bullish at the mid-day, although the SPY has stalled just under R2. Note how the purple dashed upward sloping five-dma was the line in the sand.

Throw Yourself Into the Game

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 01:50:43 -0500

I caught up with some reading this week, and loved this Inc. magazine article discussing the techniques used by successful entrepreneurs. Not only did I take comfort in how weird we as business owners think, I thought the ideas translated right into how we think as traders. Consider the following assessment:

Two ETFs to Play Colombia's Appeal

Kevin Grewal — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 01:40:45 -0500

As commodity prices continue to increase and the US dollar remains weak, commodity rich frontier markets, in particularly Colombia, may pose an opportunity to investors.

Copper Correction

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 01:38:35 -0500

Red-hot copper hit another new all-time high this week, extending its mighty upleg to a 66.6% gain since June! As always after any strong run, investors and speculators are pretty excited about this essential base metal these days. But this incredible bullishness, along with overbought technicals, actually suggests copper is on the verge of a major correction today.

Inflation Scorecard: Inching Up Again

Brad Zigler — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 01:20:47 -0500

This week, the Swiss franc reversed course vs. bullion, giving up 3.9 percent to gold. Other reserve currencies also yielded to the metal. The yen lost 3.3 percent while the euro and sterling slipped 2.9 and 2.3 percent, respectively.
The U.S. dollar continued on its reflationary course this week as well. As of Thursday:

Bears May Be Taken To The Woodshed During Next Correction

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 01:15:15 -0500

It seems bearish analysis and articles are popular these days. From a contrarian perspective, that is a good thing for the longer-term bull. Any experienced investor or market professional knows the current market is going to correct at some point, probably within the next month or so. Based on fundamentals and technicals, our analysis below makes what we believe is a strong probabilistic case the next correction will not kick-off a new full-blown bear market.

Evaluating Trading Systems

Ray Barros — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 01:08:23 -0500

I am constantly amazed how gullible we are - how we want to believe in unrealistic claims and how willing we are to put our hard earned on the line in the pursuit of our fantasies.

So I am writing this blog in the hope it will help someone avoid a burnout. The system here I have taken from Collective2 who evaluate public systems for free.

Suppose you received the ad that said:

USD/CAD Lower on Trade Numbers, But Risk Appetite Driving Forex

Kathy Lien — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 12:09:42 -0500

S&P 500 Price Extensions from 200-Day SMA Insights

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 12:05:46 -0500

What does it mean when someone says “The SP500 is really, really overbought?”

There’s many ways to measure “really, really overbought” objectively, and one of those is to compare the percentage price is extended from a certain moving average, for example the 200 day simple moving average.

Right now, price is just over 14% extended above its rising 200 day SMA, but what does that mean? Is that a lot?

European ETFs: Dealing With The Return Of The Sovereign Debt Crisis

Gary Gordon — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 12:00:16 -0500

Did you think it was over? Did you believe that the bailouts of Greece and Ireland had effectively put an end to the PIIGS challenge?

Frontrunning: February 11th

Tyler Durden — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 08:35:29 -0500

Chinese Stock Markets & European Politics

Michael Pettis — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 08:28:03 -0500

Because of the lunar New Year festivities when I wrote my newsletter little had happened in China besides the 25 bp interest rate hike on Tuesday, not counting of course the never-ending stream of fireworks and the several really great jaio zi dinners I have managed to snag from my students and their families. I have nonetheless been getting a lot of questions recently about what I expected for the stock market this year.

Political Risk & China's Currency

Jim Picerno — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 08:26:23 -0500

China's economic rise increases the odds that its currency is destined to become a global currency, according to The New York Times. "No one expects that to happen immediately," the article carefully adds, even if the writing is on the wall. “The RMB is likely to become a reserve currency in the future, even if the government of China does nothing about it,” economist Robert Mundell predicts. Perhaps, although the story also recognizes the political risk that still haunts China.

2 minute Lazy Man

Bob Barnes — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 08:24:53 -0500

Ron Paul Says Next US Crash Will Be Comparable To That Of Soviet Union

Tyler Durden — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 05:19:37 -0500

Lower Lows, Lower...

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 05:07:15 -0500

The market has been very resilient in light of last night’s CSCO news, but at the end of the day it still looks like a likely case of lower lows and lower highs….

Schwab Plans to Enter the All-ETF 401(k) Market

Jim Slagle — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 02:53:12 -0500

Regulators Investigate ETFs, Insider Trades: FT

Jim Slagle — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 02:51:03 -0500

New Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest in More Than Two Years

Jim Picerno — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 02:38:24 -0500

Ah, now that’s better. New jobless claims dropped last week by a robust 36,000, pulling the total under the 400,000 mark on a seasonally adjusted basis for the second time since the Great Recession was formally declared null and void as of June 2009. Is the second time the charm?

30 Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Hits 5.05%, Highest Since April 2010

Tyler Durden — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 01:12:51 -0500

Playing The Silver Goose

Brad Zigler — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 01:03:56 -0500

What's good for the goose is good for the gander. That old maxim was at the heart of a reader's comment on last week's feature, "Options Offer Clues To Gold's Direction."

Dollar Propelled Higher By Strong Jobless Claims

Kathy Lien — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 11:50:52 -0500

There are 2 reasons why the U.S. dollar is trading higher this morning - better than expected U.S. economic data and risk aversion. The labor market has been the Achilles heel of the U.S. economy and based upon the latest jobless claims report, the Federal Reserve has less to worry about. Jobless claims fell below 400k for the first time in more than 2 years and if it can remain below that level for a few more weeks, then the chance that the Fed will extend asset purchases beyond June will be very slim.

The Power of Mean Reversion

Jim Picerno — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 08:39:10 -0500

The more you look at it, the larger it looms. Yes, rebalancing is an old idea—buy low, sell high. But it's forever new for at least two critical reasons. One is simply bound up with the recognition that rebalancing works, or at least it has a long history of working by enhancing return while keeping a lid on risk. But it's not always clear what constitutes "optimal" rebalancing, or even if such a state of financial nirvana exists. That keeps analysts turning over rocks in search of progress.

GLD Meets the Fractal Lazy Man

Bob Barnes — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 08:38:25 -0500

ETF News Update: The Chairman Speaks

John Nyaradi — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 06:56:11 -0500

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke went to Capitol Hill today to meet with the newly formed House Budget Committee, commonly known on CNBC as “Ryan’s Den,” and affectionately named after its Republican Chairman Congressman Paul Ryan from Wisconsin who is an outspoken critic of the Fed policy widely known as quantitative easing.

USD: Revealing Comments from Bernanke

Kathy Lien — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 05:35:17 -0500

Long Term Trendline Support Test in TLT Bond Fund

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 04:12:20 -0500

If you’ve been watching bond prices over the last few weeks, you may have thought there was nothing to stop price from going off a cliff.

However, price has now pulled back to a critical long-term trendline level that traders are watching very closely to see if the selling stops here… or breaks the major trendline.

Let’s see it first from the Monthly Perspective:

What's Your Stock Type?

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 04:10:00 -0500

Some Evidence for 'Steep Decline' Debatable

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 03:30:13 -0500

300x250

Jim Koford — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 01:24:47 -0500

Financial Planning Requires Young Americans to Learn Old Lessons

Dock David Treece — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 12:49:01 -0500

Constructing a financial plan, much less having the discipline to stick to it, is no easy task. As Americans grow-up and enter the workforce, there is always a period of adjustment to the "real world," and the responsibilities that come with being mature adults.

Unfortunately, this has been no different for recent generations (late members of Generation X, Y, and even some older members of Generation Z) who have begun graduating from college or grad school and are now looking for work.

More Surprising Increases in Oil, Product Supplies

Brad Zigler — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 12:21:07 -0500

Domestic crude oil inventories were bolstered by another 1.9 million barrels, putting 345.1 million barrels in storage, according to U.S. Energy Department data released this morning. The build was fairly well-anticipated by the Street, but was a surprising contrast to oil industry estimates.
U.S. crude oil prices had traded modestly higher in overnight trading following Tuesday's report from the American Petroleum Institute that estimated a 558,000-barrel drawdown in domestic stocks.

Inverse VIX ETNs: Free Money?

Michael Johnston — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 12:18:35 -0500

USD: No Help from Bernanke

Kathy Lien — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 12:05:48 -0500

A Checkup on Current Market Internals and Breadth at the Highs

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 12:01:01 -0500

I’m a big fan of using market internals as a source of “under the hood” confirmation/non-confirmation when charting new swing highs in the S&P 500 index.

Let’s take a look at the “Triple Threat” market internals and then take a longer-term perspective of breadth in the current market environment.

First, the “Three Main Internals” 5-min Chart:

Very Low Volume at a New Intermediate-Term High

Rob Hanna — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 11:59:58 -0500

Low volume at a new high can often be concerning, whether it be NYSE volume or SPY volume. In last night's subscriber letter I looked at a couple of volume-related studies with moderately bearish inclinations. I then combined them to see what would occur. The study below shows the result of the combination.

Frontrunning: February 9th

Tyler Durden — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 09:02:21 -0500

The Double-Edged Sword of Investing in Volatility

Jim Picerno — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 08:55:27 -0500

A new research paper casts some doubt on using volatility as an asset class. The warning isn't unexpected, given that the broad themes of the paper's findings have been discussed for years. Nonetheless, "The Hazards of Volatility Diversification Volatility" (by Carol Alexander and Dimitris Korovilas at the University of Reading) is a timely reminder that owning (or shorting) volatility directly can be a complicated affair.

XLB Lazy Man Focus

Bob Barnes — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 08:50:27 -0500

Sector Performance from August Low to Present February

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 07:28:05 -0500

It’s been a while since I updated you on Sector ETF performance according to the Sector Rotation Model, so let’s take a quick look at past and present money flow returns from the Offensive and Defensive Sectors starting with the August 2010 low at 1,040 and moving to the present February breakthrough beyond 1,300.

Here’s the chart:

Hold Off on the Dow, Consider Malaysia ETF and Taiwan ETF

Gary Gordon — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 05:38:50 -0500

Turmoil in Egypt set the markets back for a single Friday on 1/28/11. In fact, since the Egypt crisis mummified equities, the Dow Jones Industrials Diamonds Trust (DIA) has embarked on a 7-day winning streak!

So… what’s the frequency of 7 consecutive days of gains? It’s only happened 8 other times in the past decade.

Won't Quit

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 05:37:51 -0500

This market just keeps on plugging, but now it has begun to stretch in time as well as price. I'll be on alert for a possible dip over the next couple days. I know, fade away…

Meanwhile, I'd like to highly recommend that serious system traders look into Frank Hassler of Engineering Returns' "Survivorship Bias Free" database. This is a very important topic that must not be ignored.

Forex: Unfazed by Chinese Rate Hike

Kathy Lien — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 03:36:03 -0500

Guggenheim Plans International Equity ETFs

Michael Johnston — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 01:55:28 -0500

Guggenheim has been focusing on the fixed income portion of its ETF lineup in recent weeks, but the product development team at the Chicagoland issuer is also busy laying the groundwork for new equity ETFs as well. The firm recently filed details with the SEC for four international stock funds, including multiple dividend-focused product and a new spin on BRIC investing. The proposed ETFs include:

Hi, Ho Silver!

Brad Zigler — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 01:11:11 -0500

My kids have no clue about the Lone Ranger. They have no memory, as I do, of the masked man putting spurs to his steed with a hearty "Hi, Ho Silver!" to gallop down a dusty trail in pursuit of bad guys in black hats.
No matter. They have, bless their hearts, noticed another silver on the move. No doubt you have as well. Silver's run ahead of gold in the recent precious metals rally. With that, the gold/silver ratio's resumed the downward trajectory begun last September.

Gold/Silver Multiple (Futures)

Market Restraint Fades a Little

Derek Hernquist — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 12:31:39 -0500

After 2 months of remarkably controlled breadth, the % of stocks above their 10 Day MA finally passed 80% on Monday. This gets us into range of one of my favorite counter-trend trades, as I love to short a heated bull market for a 1-3 day hedge. It allows me to keep existing longs at a time when I’m dying to sell something. The trade has the following specific parameters:

1) Index +1% Day- the smell of beta chasing needs to be in the air

Why April's Ripe for Market Pullback

David Grandey — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 12:19:53 -0500

The charts of the indexes today remind us of April 2010 where the indexes chewed around for what seemed like eternity before rolling over.

So let's explore that statement shall we? Below are the S&P 500 and OTC Comp charts of the April 2010 highs.

Inflation is a Deliberate Policy Everywhere

Steve Saville — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 12:05:22 -0500

Recent Pullback May Allow Stocks to Move Higher

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 12:01:29 -0500

Back on January 19, 2011, we made some projections regarding the market’s extended technical state and the possible onset of a correction; from that post:

A Secret Message to Investment Advisors

Jeff Miller — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 08:49:56 -0500

I want to share something that most investors will never see -- a pitch directed to the investment manager.

If you read this carefully, and think about it, you will see why it is so popular to sell fear.

This is part of an email that I received today, with identifiers removed....The email was obviously directed to investment advisors, teaching us how to increase revenues.

Sector Performance Since August Low

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 08:47:21 -0500

It’s been a while since I updated you on Sector ETF performance according to the Sector Rotation Model, so let’s take a quick look at past and present money flow returns from the Offensive and Defensive Sectors starting with the August 2010 low at 1,040 and moving to the present February breakthrough beyond 1,300.

Here’s the chart:

Still Worried About Inflation

Jim Picerno — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 08:46:04 -0500

The "Bond Market Flashes Inflation Warning," advises The Wall Street Journal. CNBC reports that "Investors Starting to Believe That Inflation Threat is Real." Is this the start of an inflationary surge? Maybe, although there's still room for debate.

Frontrunning: February 8th

Tyler Durden — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 08:42:22 -0500

XLB Still Lazy Man Fav

Bob Barnes — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 08:41:26 -0500

Using QE to Your Advantage - Subscriber Tools 1 - The Catapult & the CBI

Rob Hanna — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 06:31:08 -0500

So far in my series, "Using Quantifiable Edges to your Advantage" I have focused on the historical analysis studies, how to interpret them, and how to apply them to your trading. In the next few segments I'm going to highlight and discuss some of the tools available to Quantifiable Edges subscribers.

Chart of the Week: EGPT and Collateral Damage

Bill Luby — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 06:28:41 -0500

Unrest in Egypt is barely three weeks old and already the ripple effect has crossed the globe in several waves.
I find it interesting how regional and country ETFs can be of some assistance in evaluating how investors are thinking in terms of contagion risk, be it political or economic – or at the very least in terms of the breadth and depth of the economic impact of specific events.

USD: Tinge of Optimism

Kathy Lien — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 06:25:46 -0500

Catch Me If You Can...

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 04:29:29 -0500

Equities continue their longstanding run higher to the top of recent channel.
The SPY and QQQQ are running just above their respective R2s, and are now back into official overbought status on the daily timeframe.

U.S. One / Russell Planning More ETFs

Michael Johnston — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 03:26:38 -0500

After announcing the acquisition of Reno-based U.S. One last month, Russell has wasted little time utilizing its new-found flexibility to beef up its already hefty product pipeline. U.S. One Trust recently disclosed plans to the SEC for three new Russell ETFs, each of which would be structured as a fund-of-funds. The proposed ETFs include:

Should You Still Ask TED About Gold?

Brad Zigler — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 01:53:14 -0500

Used to be that whenever you wanted to know what the market really thought about gold, all you had to do was consult TED. TED is an archaic acronym for the "Treasury bill-eurodollar" spread—the price/yield differential between then-extant Treasury bill and eurodollar futures.
(Eurodollars are greenbacks on deposit in foreign—mostly London—banks; futures on bills and eurodollars used to trade on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, but have been long-delisted).

What Will the Year of the Rabbit Bring?

John Nyaradi — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 12:26:13 -0500

The Chinese Lunar New Year began last week on February 3rd and will end on January 22, 2012, with this year’s Lunar New Year celebration culminating with the full moon on February 18th.

2011 is officially known as the Year of the Golden Rabbit and comes from the rabbit, the fourth sign of the Chinese Zodiac and is known generally to be a lucky sign.

WisdomTree Plans Global Real Return Active ETF

Shishir Nigam — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 12:25:27 -0500

Three ETFs To Play Emerging Market Debt

Kevin Grewal — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 12:07:29 -0500

As developing nations continue to draw investor attention, opportunities in developing market debt may present a viable opportunity.

To not much surprise, many have been turning to developing nations mainly due to their aggregate, or combined, size and expected exponential growth compared to the United States in the near future.   In fact, a recent study indicates that 97% of the world’s population, 75% of its economic production and nearly 67% of stock market capitalization is outside of the United States.

Oil Prices: Talking Trash...or Truth?

Jim Picerno — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 12:04:30 -0500

Stock Market Bias Remains Bullish, But Resistance Ahead

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 12:01:20 -0500

We head into the new week with some good news from the Middle East, Europe, and the United States. The bias on the Street remains positive, but from a strategy perspective we have potential resistance to contend with near 1,315 and 1,326 on the S&P 500. Below, we outline a possible approach for the week from a portfolio management perspective. Quick reads from this morning’s news capture the early tone for Monday:

Euro: Headed for 1.34?

Kathy Lien — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 11:49:58 -0500

January Suggests Bullish 2011

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 08:50:57 -0500
Last week, the S&P 500 confirmed its best January performance in nearly half a decade.
For the month, the benchmark index added 2.26% as trading volume ticked higher.

If the January barometer holds true this year, investors should expect overall higher equity prices in 2011. (Image: nicholasturner on Flickr)

For the month of February, the S&P 500 is currently up 1.9%, and the NASDAQ 2.5%.

Frontrunning: February 7th

Tyler Durden — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 08:44:48 -0500

Weighing the Week Ahead: Where are the Jobs?

Jeff Miller — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 08:43:03 -0500

The eagerly awaited jobs report disappointed, but the market shrugged off the news. As I expected, there was too much noise this month, for a wide variety of reasons.

Few believe the jobs picture is good, but we need more data to get a better read. I'll look at this topic in more detail, but first let us do our regular weekly review.

Strategic Briefing: Corporate Profits

Jim Picerno — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 08:41:45 -0500

No Rush to Hire Even as Profits Soar
Wall Street Journal/Feb 7
With 73% of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index by market value having reported fourth-quarter results, earnings are up 28% from a year earlier and sales are up 7.7%. But the contrast between profit and job growth remains a big hurdle for companies hoping to keep expanding their business.

Currency Manipulation

Michael Pettis — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 08:40:31 -0500

On Friday the US Treasury released its presumably semi-annual (it was due last October) report to Congress on currency issues, and in it refrained from calling any of the countries under review “currency manipulators.” Today’s People’s Daily had this to say :

VIXometer Update

Bob Barnes — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 08:38:29 -0500

Bearish Engulfing Candles and Trend Structure in Cotton

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 06:32:45 -0500

Did you know that Cotton prices have more than doubled since the September period when the first rumors of QE2 were released?

Cotton is a market most of us never chart, but it’s doing something interesting right now in terms of a Three Push Pattern and nice Bearish Engulfing Candles.

Let’s take a look at the past few months in Cotton, see it double in price, and take a look at the current and past bearish engulfing candle patterns which are rare but fun when they form.

Snow Job

Larry Kudlow — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 06:25:34 -0500

The January employment report was a complete snow job. Abominable winter blizzards across the country caused 886,000 workers to report "not at work due to bad weather," according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is 600,000 more than the normal 300,000 not at work for the average January of the past decade.

USD: Can the Rallly Continue?

Kathy Lien — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 06:13:33 -0500

Commodities Wrap: Scaling In & Out

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 05:33:45 -0500

David Rosenberg Deconstructs the Unemployment Number

Tyler Durden — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 04:14:57 -0500
From David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff
U.S. EMPLOYMENT — SNOW JOB?

Does This Trade Feel Crazy Enough?

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 01:58:46 -0500

If I were a trading educator, I’d start my class with the Seinfeld episode about doing the opposite. There’s a reason that doing what feels natural is not the best approach to markets; if it’s easy to do, it can’t work consistently. The law of supply and demand says it just can’t…we’d all pile into the same idea and only the fastest could win.

U.S. Inflation on the Rise

Brad Zigler — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 12:51:47 -0500

The Swiss franc took front-runner status this week in the derby against bullion, gaining 2.0 percent. Sterling trailed close behind with a 1.8 percent rise as the euro and yen rounded out the reserve currency peloton with gains of 0.7 and 0.6 percent, respectively.
For the week ending Thursday, the U.S. dollar showed signs of inflation in a number of market indicators:

Important Fibonacci Level to Watch in India Nifty INDY

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 12:48:16 -0500

I received a request to take a look at India’s Nifty 50 index - along with ETF symbol INDY – and indeed the index is at a key defining point traders and investors should be watching.

Let’s start with the broader weekly view and then drill down to the daily chart to find the key Fibonacci Support level that may indeed be an important level to watch for a potential turn.

First, here’s the Weekly Structure:

US: Weather Kills Jobs but not the Dollar

Kathy Lien — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 12:44:35 -0500

Did Snow Freeze Job Growth Last Month?

Jim Picerno — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 12:42:41 -0500

Stocks Getting Boost From Commercial Real Estate

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 12:22:14 -0500

While it would have seemed implausible during the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, the financial markets and economy are getting a boost from commercial real estate. According to Bloomberg:

Global Silver Exploration

Scott Wright — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 12:13:04 -0500

Retail Gets Wind in its Sales

Jim Farrish — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 12:55:18 -0500

Frontrunning: February 4th

Tyler Durden — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 08:26:20 -0500

Strategic Briefing: Food Prices

Jim Picerno — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 08:06:05 -0500

Global food prices rise to new highs, not expected to fall in coming months – UN
UN News Centre/Feb 3

XLB / DBC Skew

Bob Barnes — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 08:02:40 -0500

How To Spot and Trade Negative Divergence

David Grandey — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 05:30:38 -0500

Well once again it’s all about the 60-minute charts with support and resistance clearly defined. We made a move up to resistance and are now in the process of turning around here.

Commodities Wrap: The Dollar and Lack of Correlations

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 04:49:04 -0500

Resistance at Pivot

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 02:35:13 -0500

Price has been trying mightily, but ultimately unsuccessfully, to break its daily floor trader pivot at SPY $130.50. Internals are mixed with a very slight negative bias, but not enough to have a terrific feel of how the pm session may play out.

U.S. Inflation

Ray Barros — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 02:33:56 -0500

In a recent blog, “Context in Technical Analysis”, I spoke about ‘unexpected events’. One such example cropped up on Tuesday’s ISM report.

The report said that the manufacturing sector grew at a faster rate in January as the PMI registered 60.8….

Key Defining Level to Watch on China Shanghai Index

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 01:46:00 -0500

There’s been a lot of attention on China lately with regard to their economic growth potential and recent state visit to the USA.

Let’s take a moment to view China’s Shanghai Stock Market Index to see its critical “Bull/Bear” Battle level which is a critical inflection point the price is battling at this moment.

A Quick View of the Daily SSEC Chart:

A Resumption of Housing Decline in 2011?

Clif Droke — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 01:30:31 -0500

Gold Break-Out In Progress

Tyler Durden — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 01:29:19 -0500

Perhaps those 2 days of December 1,800 gold call purchases we discussed yesterday indicated someone (not Doug Kass mind you), knew something...Gold has just surged by $20 in minutes. Unless Blythe can find a way to contain this, this could get very ugly, very fast.

Faceoff: Developed and Emerging Market ETFs

Jim Slagle — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 01:27:23 -0500

ConvergEx: ETFs Show Correlations Falling

Jim Slagle — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 01:19:49 -0500

Russell Files For 3 ETFs With US One

Jim Slagle — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 01:18:02 -0500

Is The Stock Market Extremely Overbought?

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 12:57:46 -0500

As money managers, we often get forwarded what we term anecdotal evidence “proving” the market is about to peak. We term it “anecdotal” because it often references one or two points in history, instead of looking at ten to thirty years of history. One of the most common concerns sighted is “the current market is overbought and ripe for a correction.” The term “overbought” is the laziest term in technical analysis.

Options Offer Clues to Gold's Direction

Brad Zigler — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 12:23:17 -0500

Gold's weak response to the Egyptian crisis has puzzled many investors. You'd think the market would reflect growing fear, sending gold prices higher. But despite Wednesday's escalation in violence, bullion prices slumped $8 an ounce. The price decline bespeaks an overreaction on Friday, when gold jumped $14/oz.
Such is volatility. But gold market volatility has actually diminished recently. Or, rather, expected volatility—as measured by the options market—has shrunk.

Egypt ETF (EGPT) In High Demand

Michael Johnston — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 12:19:54 -0500

Still Waiting (and Hoping) for a Strong Labor Market

Jim Picerno — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 12:14:55 -0500

You can’t squeeze blood out of a stone and apparently you’ll grow old waiting for initial jobless claims to fall far enough, fast enough to inspire something more than fleeting confidence about the prospects for job creation. Ok, we're exaggerating, but anyone who's been watching the labor market these last several years understands the sentiment.

Low Volume Pullback

Rob Hanna — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 12:05:23 -0500

More than anything it was the light volume that appeared most notable about Wednesday's action.. Light volume pullbacks are generally regarded as bullish. Yet in my research I have found that when pullbacks begin on very light volume the pullback has a good chance of deepening. Today’s mild pullback in the SPX occurred on the lightest NYSE volume in over 2 weeks.

Global X Launches Andean ETF (AND)

Michael Johnston — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 12:04:03 -0500

Global X, one of the fastest-growing ETF issuers, continues to build out the emerging markets portion of its lineup. The company announced today the launch of the Global X FTSE Andean 40 ETF (AND), linked to an index that tracks the performance of the 40 largest companies in Chile, Colombia, and Peru.

REIT ETFs: High-Yield, Relatively Low Risk

Tom Lydon — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 12:25:54 -0500

Fixed-income investments help provide investors with a stable and steady flow of cash. If you’re looking for high income with relatively low risk and solid performance, REIT exchange traded funds (ETFs) could be for you.

Real Estate Investment Trusts, or REITs, generate some of the highest yields and were one of the best performers last, writes David Fessler for InvestmentU. For instance, the Vanguard REIT ETF (NYSE: VNQ), which holds around 100 different REITs, gained 24% in 2010.

Frontrunning: February 3rd

Tyler Durden — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 09:22:47 -0500

Commercial Lending: Is the Slump Over?

Jim Picerno — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 09:22:16 -0500

Commercial and industrial loans appear to be on the rise again. For the first time since the Great Recession slammed the economy, lending is increasing, according to Federal Reserve data. Banks are also loosening their lending standards, according to the latest Fed survey. It all adds up to evidence that another variable in the business cycle is no longer creating a drag on the forces of economic recovery. It's far from a sea change, but even a marginal shift is good news because it adds brings one more critical data point back from the dark side.

January Employment Preview

Jeff Miller — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 09:21:22 -0500

Everyone realizes that employment is a paramount consideration in evaluating the economic recovery. With jobs, we try to squeeze information out of each data point. Sometimes the information is just not there.

Most media sources do a terrible job of interpreting the information. Here is an easy way to test yourself.

How many jobs do you think were created by new businesses in the second quarter of 2010?

The Case for XLB Puts

Bob Barnes — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 09:20:42 -0500

Forex: Geopolitical Risks Overshadow Economics

Kathy Lien — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 05:48:24 -0500

Decision Time for Taxes and Job Growth

Dock David Treece — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 04:53:37 -0500

The big news lately has been the release of fourth quarter earnings by corporations; and many earnings reports have been extremely positive, surprising a good number of investors and economists. While circumstances have developed mostly as we expected; as anticipated the recovery in employment has also continued to lag behind.

While the job market has continued to suffer, it has done so mostly unnecessarily. If Congress and the White House were set on eliminating unemployment, as they often claim, they could accomplish a lot with just two easy steps:

Mild Downside Bias

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 04:45:32 -0500

It’s not surprising after yesterday’s mega move, but do note support just above SPX 1,300 coincident with the daily pivot and an overall constructive blend of leadership.

Six Direxion ETFs to Undergo Reverse Splits

Michael Johnston — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 03:32:49 -0500

Direxion, one of the leading issuers of leveraged ETFs, announced reverse splits for six of its 3x bear funds. Five of the leveraged products will undergo 1-for-5 reverse splits for shareholders of record after the close of the markets on Wednesday, Feb. 23, 2011:

Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ)
Daily Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ)
Daily Mid Cap Bear 3x Shares (MWN)
Daily Developed Markets Bear 3x Shares (DPK)
Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares (SOXS)

Spike in Gasoline Inventories, Production

Brad Zigler — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 03:24:49 -0500

The big news out of Washington this morning was about gasoline. According to the U.S. Energy Department's latest figures, gasoline production kept just slightly ahead of demand, while motor fuel inventories jumped unexpectedly.
Stocks of gasoline increased by 6.2 million barrels, far more than the 3.9-million-barrel build estimated by the American Petroleum Institute and the 1.9-million-barrel rise eyed by analysts.
The Street did a better job forecasting crude oil inventories.

Are Institutional Investors Becoming Impatient with Dividend ETFs?

Gary Gordon — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 01:59:18 -0500

The stampeding stock bull has hushed the naysayers. Pullbacks have been short-lived. And popular benchmarks like the S&P 500, the Dow as well as the NASDAQ have nearly gone vertical.

Equally intriguing, some advisors appear to be abandoning their asset allocation. Consider the case of the $5.3 billion dollar SPDR S&P Dividend Fund (SDY). On Tuesday, February 1, anxious institutional investors dumped more than $316,000 worth of shares in block trading on 8x the normal trading volume.

Warning: Responsible Traders Only

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 01:03:43 -0500

Slow day ahead? Depends on your perspective. Take the huge move in which stodgy blue chips exploded, combine that with virtual weather-driven shutdowns across half the country, and it’s not hard to a picture a low volume, small range affair for the indices.

However, that very recipe could lead to fireworks in smaller stocks that don’t always get noticed. While portfolio managers allow yesterday to sink in and plan their next moves, traders armed with a powerful tailwind will have little trouble generating big moves in sub-$10 stocks typically off the radar.

In Other Words, Look at SEA, the Shipping ETF

Chip Hanlon — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 12:30:37 -0500

Bannered over at Seeking Alpha this morning is a very interesting collection of articles on the shipping sector:

Six ETFs That Surged in January

Michael Johnston — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 12:18:47 -0500

The first month of 2011 is in the books, and January certainly displayed no shortage of action for investors. Earnings season kicked off to a relatively strong start, though disappointments sprinkled throughout cast some doubt on the strength of an ongoing recovery. Last year was a good one for almost every asset class, with the vast majority of U.S.-listed ETFs turning in gains. And for the most part, that positive trend continued in January, with many ETFs inching higher.

USD: ADP Not Providing Much Hope for NFP

Kathy Lien — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 12:17:17 -0500

ETFs Respond to Favorable Employment Data

Jim Slagle — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 12:14:24 -0500

A Game of Pretend

Ray Barros — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 11:52:58 -0500

Let’s play a game of pretence: let’s pretend we went short the AUDUSD and on being stopped out, we wanted to go long but decided not to; and let’s pretend we also wanted to go short the S&P and decided not to.

Now yesterday, the AUDUSD had one of the largest range days (going back to Oct 2010, there were only 3 days with a greater range) and had we gone long, we’d have recovered all our losses.

ADP Employment Report: Modest Job Growth in January

Jim Picerno — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 11:43:59 -0500

Private-sector jobs increased by a modest 187,000 in January, according to this morning’s release of the ADP Employment Report. That’s a sharp slowdown from December’s 297,000 surge, which has since been revised down to 247,000.

Important Investment Opportunity Missed by Most

Jeff Miller — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 09:20:26 -0500

Attention investors! Most market studies are either misleading or completely false.

The research you see on the Internet or on financial TV is done with a purpose in mind. It is not reviewed by anyone, and it involves many methodological flaws. Often the point is to sell fear, gold, or structured products with high commissions.

This is an important story, but few will pay any attention. It is so easy to deceive by drawing a line on a chart.....

Frontrunning: February 2nd

Tyler Durden — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 09:12:22 -0500

The Jobless Recovery Rolls On

Jim Picerno — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 09:11:26 -0500

Yesterday’s Institute for Supply Management's survey of manufacturers for January delivered a strong dose of optimism for thinking that the expansion has a head of steam. As an early look at how the economy fared last month, this index’s rise to its highest level in seven years signals that the growth is still bubbling in the new year. The U.S. stock market took the hint and posted a strong rally yesterday. In fact, equities have more or less regained all the losses suffered during the Great Recession.

XLB, DBC and the Rotator

Bob Barnes — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 09:07:30 -0500

The Roller Coaster Ride Continues

John Nyaradi — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 07:14:03 -0500

One can only marvel at the velocity and volatility of moves this week in global markets. As we said on our weekend update, the only sound advice in this environment is “fasten your seatbelts.”

Markets soared today on the strength of the January ISM report which jumped to 60.8 from 58.5 prior and so put in the best number in nearly 7 years as U.S. manufacturing activity showed continued strength.

USD: Looking Beyond Egypt to Jobs

Kathy Lien — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 07:09:23 -0500

New Month Trend-Day

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 04:56:34 -0500

We are seeing a powerful trend-day taking price up and out of the recent multi-week range with internals strong across the board.

Commodities Wrap: New Highs and Lows

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 04:41:15 -0500

Goose Is Cooked For India ETFs, At Least In The Near-Term

Jim Slagle — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 02:37:29 -0500

Recent 1st Day of Month Has Been Especially Strong

Rob Hanna — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 01:40:27 -0500
I've discussed the tendency for the market to rise on the 1st day of the month before. In July of 2009 I broke out the performance by month.

Recently I've noticed this edge has shown even stronger tendencies - most notably the last 15 months. Below is a performance report showing the 1st day of the month from October 2009 through January 2011.

ETF Strategies: Something for Everyone

Jim Slagle — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 01:28:07 -0500

How to Save the EEM Franchise

Jim Slagle — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 01:21:54 -0500

Are Gold Spreaders The Bad Guys?

Brad Zigler — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 01:12:28 -0500

Much ire has been raised by the disclosure of a hedge fund's unwinding of a huge gold spread trade on COMEX.
On Jan. 24, open interest in COMEX gold futures slumped 14 percent, as a small hedge fund, SHK Asset Management, unwound long-standing positions.
So, whence the ire? Well, the assets of the SHK fund amount to just $10 million, but the value of the fund's gold futures holdings was reported to be $850 million, "the equivalent of South Africa's annual gold production," according to Wall Street Journal reporter Carolyn Cui.

Unrest in Egypt Has Mixed Impact on ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 12:47:29 -0500

3 Sector ETFs to Watch in the Second Quarter

Jim Slagle — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 12:46:08 -0500

TrimTabs Shifts ETF Portfolio To 100% Long

Jim Slagle — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 12:45:19 -0500

Agricultural ETF Put Volume Rises After Single Trade

Jim Slagle — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 12:41:53 -0500

As World Becomes Zimbabwefied, Cotton Futures Surge 17% in One Month

Tyler Durden — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 12:31:51 -0500

Egypt's Revolution and Inflation

Steve Saville — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 12:29:39 -0500

Teucrium Launches Natural Gas ETF (NAGS)

Michael Johnston — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 12:21:06 -0500

Teucrium, the issuer behind the only pure play corn ETF on the market, has doubled the size of its ETF lineup with the introduction of the Teucrium Natural Gas Fund (NAGS). The new fund will offer investors another option for gaining exposure to natural gas futures contracts through the exchange-traded structure.

ETFs To Watch As Egyptian Drama Plays Out

Michael Johnston — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 12:17:36 -0500

Triple Timeframing the Breakout in Copper (JJC)

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 12:04:41 -0500

Many investors and traders look to copper prices to gauge the strength or weakness of the economy, as copper is an industrial metal used in all sorts of construction projects.

If that sentiment holds true, then copper just sent a big “economic recovery” message this morning, as it has been doing over the last few months.

Let’s “triple timeframe” Copper prices and then finish by looking at the current tradeable JJC Copper ETF:

USD: Limited Benefit from ISM, Traders Focused on Inflation

Kathy Lien — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 11:43:18 -0500

Frontrunning: February 1st

Tyler Durden — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 08:41:03 -0500

Indexing, Rebalancing & Asset Allocation

Jim Picerno — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 08:40:19 -0500

SmartMoney asks: Is your index fund broken? Good question, although here’s a better one: Is your management of asset allocation broken?

DBC is Lazy Man’s Pick

Bob Barnes — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 08:39:42 -0500

Oil Goes Parabolic Over Egypt (USO)

John Nyaradi — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 07:07:52 -0500

The big news today was that domestic markets shrugged off the crisis in Egypt while oil prices didn’t and hit two year highs.

West Texas Intermediate rose +2.69% to $91.90 while Brent Crude passed $100 for the first time since 2008.   To put this in perspective, Brent Crude was $70 as recently as five months ago, a gain of approximately 40%.

At home, Exxon blew away earnings estimates while the Chicago PMI came in at 68.8, a 20 year high and exceeding expectations.

Egyptian Riots Highlight Near-Term Strengths in Agribusiness ETF, Oil Services ETFs

Gary Gordon — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 06:51:42 -0500

The first rumblings of protest in Egypt actually hit international newswires on Wednesday, 1/26. However, world markets didn’t seem to care until Friday, 1/28… on the third day of street riots. And even as the crisis seemed to intensify over the weekend , stocks and commodities continued their march higher on Monday, 1/31.

Forex: Who Will Act First on Inflation?

Kathy Lien — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 06:50:26 -0500

Bernanke and Ethanol Sink Egypt

Larry Kudlow — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 06:14:08 -0500

Decades of autocratic government and a lack of free elections are, of course, the main drivers of the political upheaval in Egypt. But did the sinking dollar and skyrocketing food prices trigger the massive unrest now occurring in Egypt—or the greater Arab world for that matter?

In addition to Egypt, the people have taken to the streets to varying degrees in Algeria, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, and Yemen. Local food riots have even broken out in rural China and other Asian locales.

Commodities Wrap: One Month Down

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 04:00:02 -0500

Million Man March Leaves U.S. Market Vulnerable Short-Term

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 03:34:46 -0500

Since large institutional investors (hedge funds, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc.) are the primary drivers of asset prices, it pays to keep an eye on them. The market’s ‘big boys’ seem to be focused on this Dow Jones News Service report:

On Human Fertility and Resource Limits

David Merkel — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 01:48:52 -0500

When I gave a presentation to the Society of Actuaries three years ago, I was amazed that the Total Fertility Rate had fallen to 2.9 globally. I am now amazed that the CIA Factbook estimates that rate at 2.5 for the world on average.

Consumer Spending & Income Rise in December

Jim Picerno — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 01:42:57 -0500

Disposable personal income (DPI) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased in December, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. The update marks the sixth straight monthly rise in PCE and the third consecutive gain for DPI. In other words, if you’re looking for a reason to doubt the revival in consumer spending of late, you won't find it here.

Egypt ETF Creations Suspended

Michael Johnston — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 01:20:17 -0500

Bush vs. Obama: Who's Better for Investors?

Jim Slagle — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 01:16:00 -0500

ETFs to Boom to $2 Trillion: BlackRock

Jim Slagle — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 01:13:07 -0500

4 Oil ETF Indicators to Watch

Jim Slagle — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 01:12:12 -0500

The Everyman Hedge Fund

Jim Slagle — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 01:10:42 -0500

Moderate Recapture

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 01:04:47 -0500

Late night futures were able to turn things around, leaving us with a positive disposition for the day. Internals are very strong, although I noticed that the QQQQ’s pivot offered market-wide resistance.

Trading Toyota Motor (TM) in the Recall Aftermath

Steve Claussen — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 01:03:55 -0500

JP Morgan Tweaks Planned Copper ETF

Jim Slagle — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 12:55:18 -0500

Gold Bar Premiums at 17-Year High in Hong Kong

Tyler Durden — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 12:50:04 -0500

The geopolitical ramifications of the revolution in Egypt and the likelihood that it will spread throughout the Middle East, North Africa and possibly further afield is leading to volatility in markets. Equity indices in the Middle East and Far East were mostly down (except for China) overnight. European bourses were under pressure this morning but have recovered somewhat.

Long-Term Fibonacci Level Update in Crude Oil

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 12:49:57 -0500

What are the long-term Fibonacci retracement levels to watch on Crude Oil? Did you know that oil is pushing right up against a major Fib level right now?

Let’s take a look at monthly Crude Oil to see this level and what the larger IF/THEN possibilities are at this time:

The Gold Roller Coaster

Brad Zigler — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 12:46:26 -0500

The crisis in Egypt really stirred up the gold market Friday. And why shouldn't it? After all, there was a weekend—and a likelihood of increasing violence—ahead. On Monday morning, though, with the world markets open, the fear seemed to dissipate.
There's a lot of fear premium embedded in gold's price. Over the past three months, we've come to see the degree of volatility in that component. Now, there's opinion aplenty explaining the weakness leading into Friday's price spike. The truth is laid out in the numbers.

Pax World Launches Socially Responsible EAFE ETF (EAPS)

Michael Johnston — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 12:39:56 -0500

Pax World, a leader in the field of sustainable investing, has rolled out the second product in its ESG Shares lineup. The Pax MSCI EAFE ESG Index ETF (EAPS) will seek to replicate a benchmark consisting of stocks in the Europe, Australasian, and Far East regions that meed certain environmental, social, and governance criteria. EAPS will be the first ETF based on a sustainability or ESG-based index to target the EAFE region.

Context in Technical Analysis

Ray Barros — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 12:00:21 -0500
A subscriber to the newsletter asked:
From: Bill Mitchel
Date: Saturday, January 29, 2011
“Through your book and your posts I am learning about your technical
analysis process. But one of the things I think really sets your
method apart is the use of context. For example the FOMC.

Chart of the Week: VXX Celebrates 2nd Birthday

Bill Luby — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 11:58:17 -0500

One year ago today, in Chart of the Week: VXX Celebrates One Year of Futility, I chronicled the first year of the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN, known to most by its ticker symbol, VXX. At the time, I noted that VXX had fallen 68.4% in its first year and made the prediction, “I expect VXX to perform better relative to the VIX in its second year than it did in its first year, though admittedly this is not a very high bar to clear.”

Market Structure vs. News

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 11:53:58 -0500

In a crowd of mostly technicians but also some skeptics at the MTA event, an audience member stated that technical analysis is useless because it deals with past data. Egypt was the reason the market sold off, how can technicals trump that? Let’s concede that Egypt caused Friday’s selloff. Why January 28, and not January 18, when Egypt’s market dropped 8%? Or January 26, when it dropped another 8%?

"Monday, Monday, Can't Trust That Day"

John Nyaradi — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 11:52:53 -0500

Last Sunday, my weekend update was titled, “Can You Hear the Waterfall?” while on Thursday I wrote, “Lights Dim in the Global Equity Markets” and on Friday “Global Markets Teeter on the Knife’s Edge.”

Certainly it was an eventful week as we tumbled ever closer to the waterfall; the lights dimmed across the Middle East and on Friday, at least, the knife pointed straight at the heart of global equity bulls.

Dollar Weakens after U.S. Data, Risk Aversion Could Return

Kathy Lien — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 11:49:24 -0500

Frontrunning: January 31st

Tyler Durden — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 08:59:09 -0500

Stocks Close Red on Egypt Concerns

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 08:21:50 -0500
The S&P 500 started off on a high note last week, rising for the first four sessions.
Then came Friday, and the equity markets erased all gains. Stocks were slammed over concerns related to instability in Egypt.

This marks the first multi-week decline on the S&P 500 since November 2010

With one session left in the month, the S&P is currently up 1.5%, and the NASDAQ 1.3%.

Strategic Briefing: Oil & the Egyptian Crisis

Jim Picerno — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 08:20:03 -0500

Oil price nears $100 on Egypt crisis
AFP/Jan 31

How Big is Chinese GDP?

Michael Pettis — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 08:18:25 -0500

Most of this week's newsletter was about the release last week of China's fourth quarter GDP growth numbers by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).  You can find the full NBS report on their website, but here is the key paragraph:

UUP: Bullish Divergences and Developing Structure

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 08:15:23 -0500

With multi-swing divergences happening in the US Stock Market, what is the similar picture like on the inversely correlated US Dollar Index?

As it stands now, it’s bullish but in its earliest stages of potential life.

Let’s take a look and learn a quick lesson in confirmation via a simple inter-market cross-check.

The US Dollar: 60-min

Lazy Man Trading System QLD

Bob Barnes — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 08:13:57 -0500

As promised yesterday, here’s the current performance record for the Lazy Man trading system originally posted on Dec 31st, 2009. The green line reflects the Lazy Man equity curve as opposed to the corresponding chart of SPY shown in orange.

Chart of the Week: VXX Celebrates 2nd Birthday

Bill Luby — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 08:13:07 -0500

Gold and Dollar Weaken

Brad Zigler — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 02:08:55 -0500

Gold’s weakness carried over from last week as bullion lost further ground to the world’s reserve currencies. Bullion slumped 4.4 percent against the Swiss franc and the euro while giving up 2.8 percent in yen. Gold ceded 1.9 percent to sterling.

For the week ending Thursday, disinflation in the U.S. dollar moderated:

Currencies Rocked By Turmoil in Egypt

Kathy Lien — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 06:06:39 -0500

Commodities Wrap: Turmoil Puts Commoditites in the Spotlight

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 05:45:28 -0500

Looking Only at Stocks Dropping? Look at the Rallies in These ETFs!

Jim Slagle — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 02:56:34 -0500

Redacted Version of the January 2011 FOMC Statement

David Merkel — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 02:48:07 -0500

RBS Launches Mid-Cap TrendPilot ETN (TRNM)

Michael Johnston — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 02:47:15 -0500

Looking Only at the Stock Market Decline? Then You're Missing Big Rallies in These ETFs

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 02:44:54 -0500

While many stock-market traders are focused only on the sharp morning decline in the S&P 500 and other equity indexes, traders may not aware of the big one-day rallies in related ETFs - and some of the charts may surprise you.

Let's take a quick Daily Chart Fly-By of Leading ETFs for the 5 Major Cross-Markets.

First, the Big Headliner: SPY

Mean Reverting Momentum, or, a Dead Cat Bounce?

David Merkel — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 02:25:56 -0500

There have been debates between those who argue for momentum and mean-reversion. I say, “Why Choose? You can benefit from both.” Stock performance tends to persist after 12 months of outperformance, and tends to mean-revert after 48 months of underperformance. Tonight’s screen reveals 33 stocks that were in the bottom quartile over the last 4 years, but in the top quartile over the last year, with market capitalization over $100 million.

Pax Launches Sustainable EAFE ETF

Jim Slagle — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 02:21:59 -0500

S&P Reports Record-Breaking ETF Launches

Jim Slagle — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 01:04:31 -0500

Trading Silver Futures? Information Sources are Key to Success

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 12:31:50 -0500

Global Markets Teeter on the Knife's Edge

John Nyaradi — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 12:27:30 -0500

The suspense is nearly unbearable as major indexes teeter on the “knife’s edge of suspense” in their struggle to break through significant resistance.

Key levels are 12,000 on the Dow and 1300 on the S&P 500 and on Wednesday and Thursday, the bulls took good shots at those key resistance points and failed to break through on a closing basis.

Is the Fed Taking the Recovery Too Far, Too Fast?

Clif Droke — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 12:26:22 -0500
The latest round of economic numbers continues to impress Wall Street and is keeping hopes of a continued economic recovery alive. Many observers question, however, if perhaps the Fed is taking the recovery too far, too fast.
On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that new home sales for December increased 17.5% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 329,000 units. This was above the consensus rate of 300,000 units and traders jumped into stocks on the news. The 17.5% increase comes following the 5.5% gain that occurred in November.

Quant Wipeout In Process?

Tyler Durden — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 12:20:28 -0500

On Monday we posted an article, highlighting Morgan Stanley's observations that we may be on the verge of an August 2007-like quant wipeout. Considering what is happening today, it may have proven eerily prescient. Below, we repost the full thing as some may not have taken it seriously the first time around.

The Skinny on XVIX

Bill Luby — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 12:15:20 -0500

Of all the second generation volatility-based exchange-traded products that have been launched in the past few months, the one I find most intriguing is the UBS E-TRACS Daily Long-Short VIX ETN, which I prefer to refer to by its ticker symbol XVIX.

Farewell, Rigs

Chip Hanlon — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 12:14:43 -0500

What a stunning effect Obama's "permitorium" is having:
More Deepwater Rigs Moved Out of Gulf of Mexico
The exodus continues...

High Probability ETF Trading: 7 ETFs You Need to Know for Friday

Jim Slagle — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 12:14:28 -0500

95 New ETFs Launched in 2010 Based on Standard & Poor's Indices

Jim Slagle — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 12:13:17 -0500

What's Next For the Egypt ETF? (EGPT)

Jim Slagle — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 12:12:39 -0500

Actively Managed ETFs Primed for Take-Off

Jim Slagle — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 12:11:26 -0500

Vanguard’s New Int'l ETF: Does It Really Offer A Better Option?

Jim Slagle — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 12:10:52 -0500

US Economy Grows 3.2% in Q4: 2010

Jim Picerno — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 12:05:15 -0500

U.S. economic growth picked up speed in last year’s fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. But the 3.2% pace of annualized real growth was below economists' 3.6% consensus forecast. Still, a 3.2% gain for GDP represents a substantial acceleration from the third quarter’s 2.6% rise.

GDP: Strength Beneath the Headlines

Kathy Lien — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 12:02:11 -0500

GDP Led by Export and Consumption; Gov & Investment Falter

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 09:07:36 -0500

The USD GDP came in less than expectations at 3.2% vs 3.6% expectations. Personal consumption rose by 4.4% which was higher than 4.0% gain expected (for the quarter). Exports rose by 8.5%. Inventories only added $7.2 billion. Last quarter they rose by $121 billion. This suggests inventory replenishment going forward should boost growth going forward. Final real sales increases by 7.1% (best since 1984)

Frontrunning: January 28th

Tyler Durden — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 09:06:08 -0500

Strategic Briefing: Deficits and Economic Growth

Jim Picerno — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 09:05:36 -0500

Fiscal Monitor Update: Strengthening Fiscal Credibility
IMF/Jan 27

Possible Concern for SPY: Low Volume at New Highs

Rob Hanna — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 09:04:56 -0500

SPY & the Lazy Man

Bob Barnes — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 09:04:04 -0500

Building a Case for Worry

Jim Farrish — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 08:58:36 -0500

Commodities Wrap: No Inflation...Yeah Right

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 07:06:26 -0500

S&P 500 Temps Traders with 1300 Bull-Bear Battle

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 07:04:11 -0500

If you’re an active trader, no doubt you’re on the edge of your trading chair trying to figure out if the S&P 500 is going to breakout through the key 1,300 level today, tomorrow, or alternately retrace deeper from here.

Let’s take a quick “Step-Inside” analysis of the intraday price and compare it to signals from key Market Internals and set-up a potential game-plan scenario depending on who wins the “Battle for 1,300.”

5-min SP500 Chart:

That Widening, er, Shrinking Contango

Brad Zigler — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 07:00:21 -0500

Days like yesterday provide investors an object lesson in futures market dynamics. As reported in Wednesday's Desktop ("Oil Inventories Build For Second Consecutive Week"), domestic crude oil supplies backed up another 4.8 million barrels last week.

USD: All Eyes on GDP

Kathy Lien — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 06:59:44 -0500

Oil Spread Signals Better Times Ahead

Brad Zigler — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 06:56:04 -0500

Oil's had an exciting week. How so? Well, the petroleum sector is finally sending definitive signals of an economic rebound.
The indication arises from the recent downward volatility in the cost of crude oil, together with simultaneous upside pressure in refined product prices. We're now seeing refining profits normalize to levels not seen since spring 2009.
You may well ask why you should care about refiners' earnings, but trust me, there's a way for you to piggyback on their good fortune to generate profits of your own.

The Myth of ETF Transparency

Jim Slagle — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 06:17:36 -0500

State Street Global Advisors Introduces Three New SPDR® Industry ETFs

Jim Slagle — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 06:12:55 -0500

AdvisorShares Unveils Short-Only ETF

Jim Slagle — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 06:10:38 -0500

RBS Launches Mid-Cap ‘Trendpilot’ ETN

Jim Slagle — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 06:10:07 -0500

Colas: Investors Don’t Trade ETFs In Predictable Ways

Jim Slagle — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 12:40:33 -0500

Lights Dim at the Global Liquidity Party

John Nyaradi — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 12:26:06 -0500

The change in mood is almost tangible this week as President Obama delivers his State of the Union message, Ben Bernanke doggedly sticks to his QE2 guns until June, the divided Congress talks “austerity,” “Dr. Copper” and his friends, gold and silver, say the party is coming to a close, Case/Shiller chills, bonds get crushed and riots break out across North Africa.

In a nutshell, things look like this:

USD: Weaker Data Confirms that Fed will Trail Behind

Kathy Lien — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 11:47:34 -0500

Will Gold Respond to the Fed's Pledge to Keep Printing?

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 11:44:15 -0500

Tuesday’s Federal Reserve statement (see below) contained no big surprises. We expected them to reiterate their intention of completing all the bond purchases as outlined originally in the second quantitative easing program (QE2). The Fed’s hope is that rising asset prices will increase confidence, and in turn lead to more spending and more hiring.

Wow.

Chip Hanlon — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 11:22:50 -0500
Baseball Player Quits, Says "I Don't Deserve $12MM"

Q4 2010 Condor Options Performace Review

Jared Woodard — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 08:17:35 -0500

Applying a Directional Market Edge to Individual Trades

Rob Hanna — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 08:15:51 -0500

Quick Daily Glance at NetFlix

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 08:15:03 -0500

With NetFlix announcing better than expected earnings after the bell Wednesday, I thought it was a good time to take a quick look at the recent history and current structure (reference levels) as seen on the daily chart for clues about what to expect next.

Here’s Netflix (NFLX) daily chart (not including post-market gap to $200):

Inflation: Can it Happen Here?

Jim Picerno — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 08:13:47 -0500

The Fed announced that it would continue purchasing Treasuries for its second round of quantitative easing (QE2). The news wasn't a surprise, but yesterday's FOMC statement triggered fresh talk about inflation. But if there's a higher risk, it's not showing up in the implied forecast via the yield spread on nominal less inflation-indexed 10-year Treasuries.

Sixteen Volatility ETPs

Bill Luby — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 08:11:37 -0500

The graphic below is part of my ongoing effort not only to maintain a list of all the volatility-based exchange-traded products, but present them in a manner which helps to highlight the distinctions among these products.
Since I last updated this picture, in early December, three new VIX-based ETPs have entered the fold. Two of these are the first VIX-based ETFs and also represent the first products in this space from industry heavyweight and leveraged/inverse ETF heavyweight ProShares:

SPY-o-meter

Bob Barnes — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 08:07:46 -0500

Fed Disappoints, Dollar Tumbles

Kathy Lien — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 06:01:13 -0500

The first monetary meeting of the year has proven to be a disappointment. The Fed barely upgraded its assessment of the economy and the decision was unanimous, which makes this monetary policy statement slightly more dovish than the last. Despite significant improvements in the housing market and stronger service and manufacturing sector activity, the Fed erred on the side of caution, opting to make minimal changes. Perhaps they want to hedge themselves in case the improvements start to recede but their conservativeness has not been lost to investors.

Lessons From a Life-Long Speculator

Jeff White — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 05:58:19 -0500

Commodities Wrap: Trading on Inflation

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 05:56:16 -0500

Now That ETNs Have Come Back, How About a Refresher?

Tom Lydon — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 12:59:10 -0500

Exchange traded notes (ETNs) took a beating in the global credit crisis of 2008, not only in terms of performance alongside the broader market, but on a public relations front as major investment banks crumbled. Those days are fast becoming a distant memory.
In December 2008, ETN assets came in just under $5 billion. Today, that number has well more than doubled: at the end of 2010, assets in ETNs soured to $14.3 billion - a gain of 225%.

Seven ETF Launches for the New Year

Jim Slagle — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 01:44:09 -0500

iShares Plans Swaps-Based China ETF

Jim Slagle — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 01:38:01 -0500

Rethinking Emerging Market ETFs in Your Globally Diversified Portfolio

Gary Gordon — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 01:23:13 -0500

Last week, the Dow charted 8 straight weeks of gains. It looks poised to make it 9 consecutive victories. In fact, the media seem more inclined to talk about Dow 12000 than the equally conspicuous difficulties for the MSCI Emerging Market Index.
At the time of this writing, the emerging market index tracker, Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO) struggled to remain above its 50-day trendline. That might not be a big a deal... were it not for the tribulations of a half-dozen individual country ETFs.

Oil Inventories Build For Second Consecutive Week

Brad Zigler — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 01:20:50 -0500

Domestic crude oil inventories increased by another 4.8 million barrels, to 340.6 million, according to the U.S. Energy Department's most recent data, released today. The build follows a 2.6-million-barrel increase reported in the previous week.
This week's rise far exceeds prior industry estimates and analyst expectations. Data from the American Petroleum Institute had indicated that domestic stocks rose 2.1 million barrels, while the Street forecast a 1.2- to 1.7-million-barrel hike.

State Street to Launch New Corporate Bond ETF

Jim Slagle — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 01:08:24 -0500

Bond ETF Pricing: Efficient or Erratic?

Jim Slagle — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 01:07:18 -0500

GLD Signaling Gold Is Sold Out Again?

Jim Slagle — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 01:01:13 -0500

Gold Caught in Five-Day Fall as ETFs Shed Metal

Jim Slagle — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 01:00:08 -0500

Deconstructing the Economic Cycle...Again

Jim Picerno — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 12:54:03 -0500

Have we solved the mystery of the business cycle yet? It may be tempting to answer "yes" after tomorrow's release of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission's final report on the causes that gave us the financial and economic crisis of 2008.

Obama's Course Appears Uncharted

Dock David Treece — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 12:53:24 -0500

Every so often there occurs a political event that is a particular focus for the business community, as the economy is often impacted when the government tips its hand with regard to future policy. Such an event occurred this week with State of the Union addresses by President Obama and others.

Obama's State of the Union, obviously the most significant, was also the most vague and conceptual of the headline addresses. While it gave few concrete examples of changing policy, it was not entirely inaccurate.

US GDP Forecasts

Jim Picerno — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 12:52:43 -0500

It Was A Good Decade...For Gold

Jim Picerno — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 12:51:46 -0500

Asset classes don’t usually post gains in each and every calendar year in a given decade, but sometimes the exception is the rule. That was certainly the case for gold. As a new report from the World Gold Council reminds, everyone’s favorite precious metal had a very good decade through the close of 2010.

Dude, Where's My Correlation?

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 12:48:28 -0500

As discussed here, the Great Macro trade of 2008-2010 has shown signs of wear and tear. The US Dollar does not get an automatic rally when markets sell off, and metals/mining stocks don’t always fly when it sells off. Emerging markets have completely lost their mojo, at the expense of old industrial names.

ETF News Update: The State of the Union

John Nyaradi — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 12:36:17 -0500

As I write this ETF News Update, the State of the Union address is scheduled to begin in less than two hours.

Since it hasn't happened yet and you will likely be reading this after the speech is over, I'm going to tell you about what we heard, what we should have heard and what we need to hear going forward.

President Obama will deliver the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress which complies with instructions given in Article II, Section 2 of the United States Constitution, which instructs the President:

Can the Fed Vault the S&P 500 Over 1,291?

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 12:32:27 -0500

CCM Clients: As mentioned yesterday, I was in Tampa in meetings for the last three days. I am back in Atlanta now. It may take a day or so to catch up on emails. The top priority, as always, is to monitor the markets and manage client accounts.

It was refreshing to see the more respectful atmosphere at last night’s State of the Union address, especially when compared to the partisan, and almost childish, environment during last year’s speech. It remains to be seen if our elected officials can make any meaningful progress on important issues, such as the deficit.

Random Thoughts About the Year Ahead

Steve Saville — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 12:31:23 -0500

When we penned our 2010 forecast at around this time last year we stated that similarities between the stock market's current situation and its situation during the early 1930s had been eliminated. If any more evidence were needed to rule out an early-1930s-like scenario, 2010's market action provided it.

Fed to Find Relief in Strong Sales of New Homes

Kathy Lien — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 11:50:49 -0500

Frontrunning: January 26th

Tyler Durden — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 08:54:11 -0500

Deconstructing Economic Cycles ...Again

Jim Picerno — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 08:52:59 -0500

Have we solved the mystery of the business cycle yet? It may be tempting to answer "yes" after tomorrow's release of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission's final report on the causes that gave us the financial and economic crisis of 2008.

Five Minutes to Midnight?

Jeff Miller — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 08:52:22 -0500

Veteran Public Television commentator Mark Shields had an interesting take on The State of the Union Address. He noted that conservative criticism came in two different forms: Some saw current policy as "five minutes to change" while others saw it as "five minutes to midnight." This is a useful perspective for investors.

Shields placed President Reagan in the former, hopeful category, and Wisconsin GOP House member and new Budget Committe Chair, Paul Ryan, as part of the midnight group.

The Obama Speech

Expiring Monthly: January Issue Recap

Bill Luby — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 08:48:34 -0500

A reminder that the January issue of Expiring Monthly: The Option Traders Journal was published yesterday and is available for subscribers to download.

In this month’s feature section, the contributing editors reflect on key developments across the options landscape in 2010 and venture forth with predictions for the coming year in subjects ranging from macroeconomic issues to new products to the state of volatility.

VIX-o-Meter

Bob Barnes — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 08:47:13 -0500

Commodities Wrap: Don't Forget the Fed

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 07:01:38 -0500

Sickening— Your Chart of the Day

Chip Hanlon — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 06:27:32 -0500

This chart from CNN/Money projects that in just 9 years, fully 92% of the federal budget of the United States could go to just 4 things: Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and interest on the national debt.
Picture this: the entire American government as one big wealth redistribution engine.
Actually, you don't have to imagine it. Seriously, check out this truly awful imagery.

Investors Bet Against Gold

Jim Slagle — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 05:12:11 -0500

iShares Plans To Offer High-Dividend ETF

Jim Slagle — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 03:15:13 -0500

Steve McQueen & Bond ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 03:11:58 -0500

Use ETFs to Ride the Commodity Wave

Jim Slagle — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 01:56:24 -0500

Deutsche Bank Launches Hedge Fund ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 01:32:36 -0500

Siegel: Stocks Poised For More Gains

Jim Slagle — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 01:26:03 -0500

Good News, Bad News for Gold

Brad Zigler — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 01:22:36 -0500

There's that pesky number again. You know, the subhead number, the annual monetary inflation rate. It's flat today after more than two months in negative territory.

A Potential "Super Sector" for 2011

John Nyaradi — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 01:20:12 -0500

Unless you’ve been living in a cave for the past ten years, you know that Technology and its growth have been the big economic and social story of our times. From the dawn of the personal computer in Steven Jobs’s garage to the iPhone, we have seen literally centuries of progress made in the just the span of a few years.

Guggenheim Rolls Out Junk Target-Date ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 01:19:52 -0500

Bond ETF Revolution? State Street Plans Fundamental Fixed Income Fund

Jim Slagle — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 01:19:10 -0500

New Exchange-Traded Funds Split Emerging Markets Into Growth, Value

Jim Slagle — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 01:18:08 -0500

Survey: Mutual Fund Use Drops In Past 4 Years; ETFs Rise

Jim Slagle — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 01:17:13 -0500

Debunking Steve Liesman's "What Inflation?" Theory

Tyler Durden — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 01:01:23 -0500

Zero Hedge reader Jason submits the following rebuttal to yesterday's most hilarious segment on CNBC, which was Steve Liesman's explanation of how a 100% jump in wheat prices is really nothing to be concerned about.
CNBC, their stooge Liesman, and a whole gallon of "Inflation Doesn't Exist Except in your Nightmares" Kool-Aid.

With Earnings Old News, Can McDonald’s (MCD) Move Higher?

Steve Claussen — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 12:51:29 -0500

McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) had an intraday reversal yesterday, losing ground in early trading before recovering back into positive territory, thanks to its fourth-quarter earnings report. Ahead of the open, the fast-food giant said it collected $1.16 per share in profits, matching the consensus view. Revenue rose 4% on a year-over-year basis to $6.2 billion, also in line with what analysts were expecting.

East Vs. West on Clear Display

Chip Hanlon — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 12:32:16 -0500

Are there competing headlines that better tell the story of where our economic world is heading than these two from this morning?
While the Far East grapples with growth:
India Raises Interest Rates, Warns on Food Inflation
The West remains stuck in neutral, at best:
British Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks
What's sad is, we've done this to ourselves.

Four ETFs to Play Rise in Gasoline Prices

Kevin Grewal — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 12:27:32 -0500

As global demand for crude oil continues to increase to record levels and supply remains constricted, the price of gasoline continues to itch upwards, passing the $3 per gallon mark in October and giving support to the United States Gasoline Fund (UGA), the PowerShares DB Energy (DBE), the iShares Dow Jones US Oil & Gas Ex Index (IEO) and the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE).

How The Active ETF Asset Class Mix Has Evolved

Shishir Nigam — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 12:22:50 -0500

For most of 2010, the large majority of assets in the Active ETF space were to be found in currency funds, all of which are run by WisdomTree Investments. As the chart below shows, as of July 31, 2010, there were 28 actively-managed ETFs in the US with $1.8 billion in assets, 66% of were in currency ETFs. 23% of the assets were in fixed-income funds, a measly 5% in equity funds and the remaining 6% in multi-asset class funds that invested across asset classes. It’s interesting to see how the asset mix within Active ETFs has evolved in the months since.

A Reader Asks for Help

Ray Barros — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 12:20:56 -0500

A reader asked a question that many have asked before. Generally with this sort of problem, the trader is seeking a solution to a psychological issue. I tend first to look to see if the plan is clear and then see if the trader has looked at the problem from a statistical viewpoint. Only if both of those are answered in the positive do I look for a solution from a psychological perspective.

You’ll see what I mean from my answer to D.

Global X Launches Growth, Value Emerging Markets ETFs

Michael Johnston — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 11:51:06 -0500

Forex: Thematic Trades Overshadow U.S. Data

Kathy Lien — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 11:47:29 -0500

Risk Analysis at the World Economic Forum

Jim Picerno — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 10:06:21 -0500

The annual World Economic Forum is set to begin, but already there's a sea of reports and commentary flowing from the confab in Davos. One of the highlights is Global Risks 2011 Sixth Edition. As a preview, here are some excerpts from the report:

Frontrunning: January 25th

Tyler Durden — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 10:03:29 -0500

My Interview on Seeking Alpha

Jeff Miller — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 10:02:35 -0500

This article is based upon a recent interview I did with Seeking Alpha. SA has graciously included me in their annual preview series for three years. This year's focus was on ETFs, so I revealed something about our Dynamic Asset Allocation (DAA) method. I have not written about this system before, so it should be of interest to readers at "A Dash."

There were many good questions, drawing out ideas about the market as well as specific stock recommendations. It does a good job of explaining my bullish posture for 2011.

A Little Background

VIX Bunga Bunga PDQ

Bob Barnes — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 08:25:15 -0500

How to Factor in Overbought/Oversold

Rob Hanna — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 08:24:28 -0500
This post is the next in the series "Using Quantifiable Edges to your Advantage". The last post discussed how I combine studies to help establish a bullish or bearish bias. Today I will discuss how I factor in overbought/oversold readings when considering whether to take (or hold) a position.

Triple Timeframing the Breakout Rally in XOM

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 06:50:16 -0500

Exxon-Mobile (XOM) has been one of the strongest performers in the Dow Jones index lately, and the rise correlates in part to the QE2 stimulus effects, giving us a great lesson in both charting breakouts and “stock-specific” narratives, or even broader market narratives.

Let’s start with the monthly chart and then drill down to the big 35% rally as seen on the daily chart:

Forex: Currrencies Lifted by Optimism

Kathy Lien — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 06:39:46 -0500

Three of the Most Consistent Sector ETFs Available Right Now

Gary Gordon — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 06:34:23 -0500
Face it… you’ve probably been waiting for a more siginificant equity pullback. And you’ve been wondering why market participants haven’t taken more profits or waited for larger dips to put new money to work.
In some ways, it may or may not be as simple as this: Short-sellers have yet to throw in the towel. It is true that investors betting that stocks will fall nearly caved on Friday, January 14. However, until the uber-pessimists finally fold up their tents, we’re unlikely to see a 4-5% sell-off… let alone a more powerful correction.

Thoughts on Mike Bellafiore's Book 'One Good Trade'

Jeff White — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 01:51:06 -0500

Four ETFs Influenced By McDonalds' Performance

Kevin Grewal — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 01:45:54 -0500

The world’s largest restaurant chain, McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) reported increases in revenues and net income for the fourth quarter, meeting analyst expectations and giving support to the Consumer Discret Select Sector SPDR (XLY), the iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Services (IYC), the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary (VCR) and the PowerShares Dynamic Food & Beverage (PBJ).

Twin Peaks?

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 01:27:41 -0500

Tempting to fade the run back to Friday’s highs/ R1 with a big caveat that internals are still very supportive of the bull case here at the midday.

Russell Forecasts ETF Market Will Top $6bn

Jim Slagle — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 01:05:07 -0500

Can You Hear the Waterfall?

John Nyaradi — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:36:53 -0500

Global Sector ETFs Catch A Wave of Bargain-Hunting Enthusiasm

Gary Gordon — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:35:57 -0500

Small-cap stocks are struggling to keep up with large-cap stocks. Growth ETFs are yielding ground to Value ETFs. And now… U.S. Sector ETFs are losing out to Global Sector ETFs.

A New Market Climate

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:27:31 -0500

“Price advertises opportunity, time regulates all opportunities, and volume measures the success or failure of all opportunities” James Dalton

In the rush to label the market, it’s easy to forget about the role of time in market structure. The way I see it, we have 3 outcomes to consider:

1) Great market- will regain its footing in 3-6 days and move to new highs with broad leadership

Active ETF Growth Will Not Parallel Index ETFs

Shishir Nigam — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:21:47 -0500

Many market observers have suggested that actively-managed ETFs will be the ones to look out for in 2011. Some believe that their growth will accelerate in the coming year as investors recognize their benefits and advantages over actively-managed mutual funds that still hold the vast majority of investor assets. Others see a slower transition into primetime because of continued regulatory and structural hurdles faced by the industry. Whatever the stance might be, Active ETFs are definitely being watched with interest.

ETFs and Apple: Why It Matters

Jim Slagle — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:16:14 -0500

Commodities Investors Still Favor Mutual Funds

Jim Slagle — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:15:15 -0500

Solar Energy ETFs Shining Bright In 2011

Jim Slagle — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:14:28 -0500

ETF Investors Are Embracing Low Cost Options…Or Are They?

Michael Johnston — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:13:34 -0500

Financial Sector Is Full Of Crummy Stocks

Jim Slagle — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:12:52 -0500

Vanguard Making Headway in Expanding ETF Field

Jim Slagle — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:11:42 -0500

Russia To Increase Gold Holdings By 13% In 2011

Tyler Durden — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:04:06 -0500

Got Cocoa?

Brad Zigler — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 12:01:33 -0500

Hard assets sometimes aren't. By that I mean some of the best assets to hold—if one's inclined to hold commodity interests—are often the softest.
So-called soft commodities are generally thought of as agricultural futures that aren't grains or oilseeds. The domestically traded softs include coffee, sugar, cocoa, cotton, orange juice and lumber.

Three Factors Weighing on EUR Today

Kathy Lien — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 11:44:24 -0500

This is an exceptionally busy week in the currency market with 3 central banks announcing monetary policy decisions (Fed, RBNZ, BoJ) and one releasing the minutes from their most recent meeting (BoE). None of the central banks are expected to alter interest rates or make any changes to monetary policy but as usual, the comments and tone of their statement could go a long way in determining how these currencies trade.

Will the Outrages Never Cease?

Chip Hanlon — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 11:28:26 -0500

In case you didn't see Gretchen Morgenson's must-read article in the NY Times:
Mortgage Giants Leave Legal Bills to the Taxpayers
An excerpt:The bulk of those expenditures - $132 million - went to defend Fannie Mae and its officials in various securities suits and government investigations into accounting irregularities that occurred years before the subprime lending crisis erupted. The legal payments show no sign of abating.

Frontrunning: January 24th

Tyler Durden — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 08:41:29 -0500

A New Leading Emerging Market ETF

Jim Picerno — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 08:40:51 -0500

NASDAQ Slips

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 08:39:50 -0500
The NASDAQ Composite slipped 2.4% last week as the benchmark tech index led the way to the downside.
A number of widely held "momo" stocks were hit exceptionally hard.

The S&P 500 however, fell a mere .76% for the week.

For the month, the S&P 500 is currently up 2%, and the NASDAQ just 1.4%. Before last week's decline, the S&P 500 was higher by 2.8%, and the NASDAQ 3.8%.

We have grown quite accustomed to the bullish price action over the last few months, but last week, the bears were in complete control.

Comparing Staples and Discretionary Sectors

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 08:38:01 -0500

During major market moves, and at potential market turning points, it’s often helpful to look at the ratio between the “offensive” Consumer Discretionary/Retail and the “defensive” Consumer Staples sectors.

Let’s take a look at the current ratio in relation to the S&P 500’s big recent run, and then look individually at the daily charts of the Discretionary (XLY) and Staples (XLP) sector ETFs.

First, the S&P 500 with Offensive/Defensive Ratio in play:

VIX Rides the Rotator Belt

Bob Barnes — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 08:34:44 -0500

AdvisorShares Files For TrimTabs Active ETF And Cuts Expenses On GTAA

Shishir Nigam — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 05:20:01 -0500

Filing for TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (TTFS)

Large-Cap ETFs Beating Small Cap ETFs, Value ETFs Beating Growth ETFs

Gary Gordon — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 05:17:48 -0500

Over the last 30 days, size has mattered. Large-Cap ETFs have been significantly outperforming Small-Cap ETFs.

A similar event has taken place with respect to different investing styles — value and growth. Specifically, over the last month, value-oriented ETFs have picked up ground on growth-oriented ETFs.

The shifts may be subtle. In fact, these changes may not even last. Nevertheless, they are definitely worthy of discussion.

Commodities Wrap: The January Effect

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 04:11:50 -0500

Hubris & The Trader

Ray Barros — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 03:28:19 -0500

Unlike any other profession, in trading, a misstep can cost us dearly. Just the other day, that was again brought home to me and in no uncertain terms.

For my personal trading and large fund, last year was the best year I had since I started managing funds in 1990. The run of success has continued in 2011. I suspect that the improved results have much to do with some new ideas (I call Square Theory) I implemented in 2010. I say ’suspect’ because the results could be due to the fact that market conditions have suited the approach. But I digress…

Themis Trading's Top Ten Market Structure Predictions For 2011

Tyler Durden — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 02:30:01 -0500

We present Themis Trading's Top Ten Market Structure predictions for 2011. At the way things are going, they may just hit 10 out of 10.
From Themis Trading:
We give you our market structure predictions for the coming year, albeit a few weeks late. Better late than never!

Here goes:

First Trust To Launch 13 ETFs

Jim Slagle — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 01:46:08 -0500

Van Eck Plans Germany, Russia Equity ETFs

Jim Slagle — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 01:31:45 -0500

Rolling J.C. Penney Options Ahead of Expiration

Steve Claussen — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 01:29:54 -0500

A Whiff of Smoke in a Crowded Theatre

John Nyaradi — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 01:29:30 -0500

The unmistakable smell of inflationary smoke wafted across world markets today as inflationary numbers sprang up in economic reports and global bond markets, spooking investors across the globe.

Starting in China, the red hot economy grew 9.8% in the 4th Quarter, faster than expected, and registered a 4.6% inflation rate, prompting fears of further tightening measures to slow growth and rising prices in that country.

SPX Correction Looms

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 01:18:47 -0500

Dip Buying Opportunity for Equity ETF Investors?

Jim Slagle — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 01:07:10 -0500

VWO Wins Common Sense Award

Jim Slagle — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 01:05:55 -0500

Van Eck Files For German, Russian Small Cap ETFs

Jim Slagle — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 01:03:51 -0500

ETF Fund Flows: IWM, EEM Lose $1.16 Billion

Jim Slagle — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 01:03:09 -0500

Market Vectors To Roll Out 3 New International ETFs

Jim Slagle — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 01:02:26 -0500

ETFs React to Solid GE and Google Earnings

Jim Slagle — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 01:01:38 -0500

Monitoring the 'Risk Trade' with the Gold/Silver Ratio

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 01:01:19 -0500

The gold/silver ratio is not just for gold bugs; it can help us monitor the appeal of the ‘risk on’ trade relative to the ‘risk off’ trade in many markets, including global stocks (SPY) and commodities (DBC).

Surprise Rate Cut Sinks Turkey ETF

Jim Slagle — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 01:00:34 -0500

The Best ETFs for Your Money

Jim Slagle — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 12:59:56 -0500

Is This a Correction?

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 12:57:40 -0500

WHO CARES?! A trader’s job is 1) protect capital and 2)make money. Call the market what you will, a chart making its final high looks about the same as the one that has months of highs ahead of it…labeling a market doesn’t help our cause.

SHIBOR: We Have A BIG Liquidity Problem

Tyler Durden — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 12:55:22 -0500

The Real Cost of Chinese NPLs

Michael Pettis — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 12:49:11 -0500

Once again I am starting to hear investors tell me that they have been advised by bank analysts not to worry too much about the impact of a banking crisis in China. According to this argument, China has developed a very efficient and low-cost way to address banking crises, and the proof is that China's last banking crisis, which occurred only a decade ago, was quickly and easily resolved. I am afraid this argument makes absoutely no sense and is based on an inability to understand how the crisis was actually resolved.

Five ETFs to Watch as China Grows

Kevin Grewal — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 12:07:10 -0500

Despite a series of tightening monetary measures in 2010, China’s economy grew by an astonishing 9.8 percent in the fourth quarter pushing it ahead of Japan as the world’s second largest economy, while fueling concerns that more needs to be done to fight inflation.

Inflation Scorecard: Less Interest In Safe Havens

Brad Zigler — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 11:55:05 -0500

This was clearly a bad week for bullion. The world's reserve currencies all took revenge against gold, led by the euro's 4.0 percent appreciation. Sterling gained 2.9 percent at the metal's expense, while the Swiss franc climbed 2.1 percent. The yen rose 1.9 percent.
For the week ending Thursday, U.S. dollar-based indicators signaled less interest in safe havens and modestly higher inflation expectations:

Strong Canadian Retail Sales Sends the Loonie Soaring

Kathy Lien — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 11:52:32 -0500

Frontrunning: January 21st

Tyler Durden — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 08:54:26 -0500

It’s Not the News – It’s the Reaction

Jim Farrish — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 02:36:27 -0500

There comes a time in every rally where the results just aren’t good enough, no matter how good they are. Case and point, Apple! They reported numbers that would make any mother proud, borrowing an old sports phrase. They couldn’t have executed a better quarter for sales revenue, product development and profit. If there were such a thing as the perfect quarter for a company, Apple put it together. Their reward – a lower stock price. The news sometimes, no matter how good, isn’t good enough.

Strategic Briefing: Crude Oil

Jim Picerno — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 08:15:24 -0500

OPEC Pressured as African, Asian Oil Tops $100: Energy Markets
Bloomberg, Jan 20
OPEC is facing growing calls to boost oil production as crude prices in Asia and Africa surpass $100 a barrel for the first time in two years.

The Real Cost of Chinese NPLs

Michael Pettis — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 08:10:30 -0500

The FAS Crowd

Bob Barnes — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 08:08:59 -0500

Bounce at Twenty

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 06:15:02 -0500

Twenty must hold or…

Dollar Soars on Stronger Data

Kathy Lien — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 05:19:03 -0500

Across-The-Board Inventory Buildups Hurt Oil Prices

Brad Zigler — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 05:18:07 -0500

Crude oil prices slumped as analysts' consensus opinion and industry estimates of a build in petroleum inventories were largely confirmed by definitive government data.
Domestic crude inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels according to figures released by the U.S. Energy Department this morning. The American Petroleum Institute had estimated an inventory build of 3.5 million barrels. Analysts' forecasts were mixed, ranging from a drawdown of 600,000 barrels to a 2.9-million-barrel increase.

Commodities Wrap: A Possible Slowdown in China

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 05:15:52 -0500

Proof That the ETF Craze is Slowing Down

Jim Slagle — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 02:41:48 -0500

Time To Play Defense Before Buying Stocks Again

David Grandey — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 02:35:12 -0500

Today’s buzzword is DEFENSE

As a lot of you football fans will find out this weekend, no matter how good your offense is you can not get to the Superbowl without a good defense!

Trading Google Options Around Earnings

Steve Claussen — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 01:55:17 -0500
Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is reporting tonight after the close; analysts expect per-share results of $8.09, a 19% increase from year-ago numbers. Analysts have been hedging ahead of this report by sounding their opinions on the mega-cap shares.
ISI Group initiated coverage on the shares with a “hold” rating and a 12-month price target of $675. This target allows for just 7% in upside, in line with the 7% GOOG has gained in the past 52 weeks. (In the past six months, however, the stock has rallied 35%).

This Week's Must-Read

Chip Hanlon — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 01:48:38 -0500

New from the American Enterprise Institute:
Taking Government out of Housing: Principles for Reforming the Home Finance Market
Read. Every. Word.
It's co-authored by the leading authority on the subject of the GSE's, Edward Pinto, and features these highlights:
1.   The housing finance market-like other US industries and housing finance systems in most other developed countries-can and should principally function without any direct government financial support.

American Idol Viewership Drops 13%

Tyler Durden — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 01:40:42 -0500

Gold Isn’t All That Glitters in ETF Land

Jim Slagle — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 01:29:29 -0500

Surprise Home Sales Numbers Leave ETFs Wanting

Jim Slagle — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 01:23:40 -0500

Vanguard Tops BlackRock Emerging Market ETF as `Price War' Escalates

Jim Slagle — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 01:22:41 -0500

Technology: Growth, Now at a Reasonable Price

Jim Slagle — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 01:20:32 -0500

Schwab Adds Midcaps and REITs to ETF Lineup

Jim Slagle — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 01:18:55 -0500

iPath Adds Another Volatility ETN (IVO)

Michael Johnston — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 01:17:28 -0500

A Primer on Oil Indicators

Brad Zigler — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 01:13:06 -0500

Every week, when the U.S. Energy Department releases its petroleum inventory data, we take an in-depth look at the oil market, using several indicators measuring the industry's health from a refiner's standpoint (for examples, see the Wednesday Weekly Oil Roundup editions of Brad's Desktop).

Three Reasons to Ignore the Hype Surrounding Financial ETFs

Gary Gordon — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 12:45:57 -0500

Goldman Sachs reported weak revenue, Citigroup missed profit forecasts and Wells Fargo merely matched estimates. In truth, JP Morgan (JPM) is the only major financial institution that has reported inspirational numbers, but even “J.P.” has problems in its mortgage division.

Unfilled Gaps from Highs

Rob Hanna — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 12:08:18 -0500

Wednesday was the first significant day of selling in a while. The gap down in the SPY never filled and the market dropped for most of the day. Below is a study that examines SPY perfromance following other instances of unfilled gaps down from a 50-day high.

A Day of Major Stock Market Misses

John Nyaradi — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 12:05:31 -0500

It was a day of market misses for ETFs and stocks in world markets as economic and employment reports disappointed and missed the targets set down by the “experts.”

December Housing Starts came in at 529k versus 550k expected and a prior reading of 553k, indicating ongoing weakness in the all important housing sector.

Comparing the S&P 500 and TICK Extreme Highs in 2010

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 12:01:35 -0500

I’m a huge fan of comparing the S&P 500 with the NYSE TICK (and Breadth, VOLD internals along with volume and momentum) for confirmations and non-confirmations (divergences) as tools to get a better sense of trend strength and possible opportunities to play within that developing structure.

Just like the S&P 500, the TICK has an individual ‘character’ to it and sometimes that character changes along with market environments/conditions – particularly in times of high or low volatility.

How to Keep Your Emotions Out of Investing

Tom Lydon — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 01:39:36 -0500

The economic numbers are improving, slowly but surely. That, in turn, is giving investors more and more confidence to get into the markets.
For many, it may be the first time they've gotten back in in many months. If you're among those feeling a bit rusty, you may want to consider brushing up on your investing skills to make sure that you're armed and ready to take on themarkets again.

Frontrunning: January 20th

Tyler Durden — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 08:36:50 -0500

Macro Risk & Equity Returns: What Have We Learned?

Jim Picerno — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 08:35:49 -0500

MSFT PDQ Dashboard

Bob Barnes — Thu, 20 Jan 2011 08:33:09 -0500

Commodities Wrap: Tipping Point

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 07:14:44 -0500

Russell 2000 Is Down... No, This Is Not An April Fool's Joke

Tyler Durden — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 04:55:18 -0500

Sorry but this is really worth a post. The last time the market actually dipped more than 0.001% was on November 26, as such this is a historic event (in a country whose attention span is +/- about 15 minutes). The Russell 2000, which his Chairness indicated is the only metric tracked by the Fed's third mandate, is down. And since the Fed controls (insert best Tepper voice) everything, this can only indicate that the Bernank is finally starting to get concerned about those food riots he has been reading all about in assorted fringe blogs.

Strategist: Only 17 New ETFs In 2010 Attracted Enough Assets To Profit

Jim Slagle — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 04:53:22 -0500

An Economic Recovery Unto Death

Clif Droke — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 04:43:31 -0500

In the Bible there is a reference to a "sin unto death." In the realm of U.S. economic policy a situation is developing that could easily lead to a "death" of the current recovery. Ironically, this brewing economic destruction is springing from the same policies that are responsible for the recovery (call it a "recovery unto death"). These policies are supposed to lead the U.S. out of recession and into a "new tomorrow" but as we'll discuss here, the end result is likely to be something far short of what policy leaders envision.

Tracking the Earnings Battle

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 03:56:59 -0500

We’re now in the time when the workload expands but so do the opportunities. Instead of evaluating the market as a whole, I can return to old fashioned stock picking as companies release results. Mind you, I’m not dissecting balance sheets and income statements; my focus is the reaction to the news. It’s these quarterly events when all interested parties are present, volume and range expand for a day or two, and we can assess the structure of a stock and motivation of its holders.

Walking the Five-Day Moving Average

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 02:47:05 -0500

US Recovery Hopes Rest on Manufacturing

Dock David Treece — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 02:29:21 -0500

Regular readers will recall that we have repeatedly expressed our long-term bullishness on the US economy, particularly the industrial/manufacturing sectors. Our arguments were laid out most recently in The Next Motor City, published in December of 2010.

In that piece and elsewhere we have detailed growing demand among emerging Asian nations (e.g. Indian and China) for many of the goods for which more developed countries have relied on them for production.

Seasonality In Gold Stocks?

Brad Zigler — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 02:00:07 -0500

This year's not been good to gold investors. So far, at least. Prices are off 3 percent since the top of the year. Granted, we're only three weeks into the new year, but a loss is a loss.
A 3 percent decline's nothing to get excited about, really. Such volatility ought to be expected from a commodity that's gained 17 percent in its average annual price over the past three years.
Still, a little good news for bullion investors could certainly help right now.

New Highs on Strong Volume Typically a Positive

Rob Hanna — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 01:19:57 -0500

Tuesday's rally came on the highest NYSE volume in 20 days. This is something I examined in last night's Letter. One filter I've found helpful in the past is excluding op-ex Fridays since they will so often post extremely high volume. Below is a stats table from my examination.

Did You Take A Bite Out Of Apple?

David Grandey — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 01:01:51 -0500

In this market, the key is to:

Buy the dips, (as long as we are in an uptrend as defined by being above the 50-day and trend channel support) sell the rips (that's getting the first down) and yes upon doing so over and over and over again and you too can go to the Superbowl!

The Next Best Thing: Acquiring Your Way Into Active ETFs

Shishir Nigam — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 12:32:31 -0500

Don’t have the necessary approvals from the SEC to launch actively-managed ETFs? Don’t have that long awaited exemptive relief to launch Active ETFs to get your product plans on the road, even though you’ve waited patiently for 1-2 years? Well, then find and someone who has all that, and then buy them. That appears to be the line of thinking that several of the larger fund companies trying to enter the Active ETF landscape have now adopted.

VWO Becomes Biggest Emerging Markets ETF

Jim Slagle — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 12:31:42 -0500

Will Toyota’s Plans Sink Rare Earth Metal ETFs?

Jim Slagle — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 12:29:44 -0500

Some Interesting ETF Stats from 2010

Jim Slagle — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 12:28:20 -0500

ETFs Under Fire

Jim Slagle — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 12:26:45 -0500

ETF Innovation Is Not Over

Jim Slagle — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 12:25:15 -0500

Differing Views of eBay Ahead of Earnings

Steve Claussen — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 12:24:34 -0500

Nic Lenoir On Visualizing The Gobal Ponzi Scheme: How Does It End?

Tyler Durden — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 12:22:37 -0500

From Nic Lenoir of ICAP

Four ETFs Driven by Apple and IBM's Stellar Performance

Kevin Grewal — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 12:14:30 -0500

Technology giants, Apple Inc. (AAPL) and International Business Machines (IBM) reported stellar quarterly earnings, smashing analyst expectations and shinning a ray of light on the technology sector and the exchange traded funds (ETFs) that track it.

Stocks Appear Attractive Over Next 6-to-12 Months

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 12:03:42 -0500

Our market models at CCM continue to paint a positive outlook for stocks, and risk assets in general, over the next twelve months. Positive fundamental data and global growth projections averaging 4.3% for the coming year continue to outweigh concerns about sovereign issues in Europe, a U.S. housing market weighed by continued foreclosures, and high unemployment.

Forex: Housing Numbers and China-US Summit

Kathy Lien — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 11:43:17 -0500

Swiss Econ Minister Warns of High Franc

Greg Michalowski — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 09:22:22 -0500

The Swiss Economic Minister is on the newswires warning about the effects of a high CHF. He says that economic growth will be slower as a result of slumping export growth. Also, Switzerland relies on tourism and that too may be suffering as a result of the high currency.

Frontrunning: January 19th

Tyler Durden — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 09:20:57 -0500

Strategic Briefing: China

Jim Picerno — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 09:20:26 -0500

Leading economist warns against rapid yuan rise
MarketWatch/Jan 18

TLT with a Bullet

Bob Barnes — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 09:05:02 -0500

The One Indicator of Market Direction That Nobody is Talking About

Gary Gordon — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 07:00:28 -0500

USD: TIC Data Shows Global Response to QE2

Kathy Lien — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 05:35:10 -0500

New Highs

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 03:13:21 -0500

Just can’t keep this market down! Internals are weaker than price action may suggest, save 52-week new highs, which is making headway.

Three ETFs to Cash In on Intel

Kevin Grewal — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 02:42:44 -0500

Chip bellwether, Intel Inc. (INTC), recently reported a quarterly profit of $3.39 billion, up nearly 48.7 percent from a year earlier, giving further confidence that the economy is improving and shinning a ray of light on exchange traded funds (ETFs) that track the semiconductor industry.

Understanding the Quirks of QQQQ

Michael Johnston — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 02:36:52 -0500

As the ETF industry has continued to gain traction in recent years, indexes have been transformed from hypothetical performance benchmarks into essentially investable assets. As such, investors have become increasingly familiar with many of the indexes that are linked to the most popular exchange-traded products and the methodologies used in the construction and ongoing maintenance.

Gold/Oil Ratio Pointing to Recovery

Brad Zigler — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 02:19:16 -0500

You might have noticed that the price trajectory for gold and oil have been diverging recently. The disparity has grown so large, in fact, that momentum in the gold/oil ratio has turned down. The ratio's 50-day moving average crossed to the downside of its 200-day moving average—a signal that lower daily values may lay ahead.

Interesting Triple Index Weekly Overhead Levels to Watch Closely

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 02:13:58 -0500

The US Equity Markets now face a critical test of weekly chart price levels that stretch back to mid-2008… or a surprising level on the NASDAQ weekly index.

You might be very surprised at the level the NASDAQ has reached if you focus most of your attention on the Dow or S&P 500.

Let’s take a look first at the similar index levels (structurally) on the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes… and then prepare to be surprised by the level the NASDAQ is challenging right now.

Trading Lessons and Current Structure in High-Flying Apple (AAPL)

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 02:04:35 -0500

News over the weekend that Steve Jobs has requested and been granted another leave of medical absence sent Apple (AAPL) shares tumbling overseas and in the US markets early Monday morning.

However, a few hours into the trading session, shares made up a large portion of the loss, rallying from an opening low of $326 up $16 to $342 at the time of this writing with half the trading session to go.

Traders currently seem to see this news as a buying opportunity to add shares of Apple to their portfolios quickly, with the opportunity closing rapidly.

Chart of the Week: the VIX Since 2007

Bill Luby — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 01:11:41 -0500

The Year in VIX and Volatility was such a huge hit two weeks ago that I thought it would be appropriate to address all the angst about low readings in the VIX with a chart of the CBOE Volatility Index (yes, the VIX does have a formal name) that stretches back to the beginning of 2007 and incorporates the 2007 peak in stocks, the 2008 panic, the 2009 bottom and the rally that has dominated the past two years.

So, in Other Words...

Chip Hanlon — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 12:52:13 -0500

...the SEC is effectively blocking U.S. investors from participating in the Facebook private placement.
I know Goldman is taking a lot of heat for its Facebook offering right now, but is the firm at fault, or are outmoded regulatory rules to blame for this mess?

Investing Overseas Involves the Double-Edged Sword of Currency Risk

Editorial Staff — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 12:42:52 -0500

By Tom Cleveland

Stocks Say We're Healing; Prices Say Look Out

Larry Kudlow — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 12:41:35 -0500

U.S. economic recovery continues to look better, according to the stock market and a boatload of economic stats last week. Stocks jumped 133 points on the Dow, which hit a 30-month high following its seventh straight weekly rise. Early fourth-quarter profit reports from Alcoa, Intel, and JPMorgan all beat expectations. Share prices are back to June 2008 levels, before the financial meltdown.

Let Your Winners Run

John Nyaradi — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 12:32:59 -0500

Everyone knows the old investing slogans, “let your winners run” and “the trend is your friend” and these are well known because they have proven themselves over time to be true. In fact, Sam Stovall in his book, The Seven Rules of Wall Street, points out that it has been a sound investing strategy to invest in the industries and sectors that had the best performance the prior year and to avoid those with the worst.

Weak Currencies, Accomodative Monetary Policies Help Germany ETF and U.S. ETFs

Gary Gordon — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 12:28:54 -0500

Emerging countries are growing so rapidly that their stock markets are beginning to look, well… less attractive? That’s what Blackrock’s Bob Doll, Fisher Investments’ Ken Fisher as well as Goldman Sachs are saying.

What do I think? I think it may be accurate for the near-sighted investor, if not uncommonly ironic. In the big picture, though, countries with monstrous deficits, insane debts, severe unemployment, cash-strapped citizens and record foreclosure woes will not be more attractive than industrializing nations.

Gold Update: Long-Term Price Targets Are Meaningless

Steve Saville — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 12:22:31 -0500

Many commentators like to speculate on where the dollar-denominated gold price is ultimately headed. Some claim that it is destined to reach $3,000/oz, others claim that it won't top until it hits at least $5,000/oz, and some even forecast an eventual rise to as high as $50,000/oz. All of these forecasts are meaningless.

Heavy Option Volume in Yahoo!

Steve Claussen — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 12:13:54 -0500

With a week-and-a-half to go before its earnings report, Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) saw what appeared to be a large risk-reversal trade cross the tape last Thursday. In early activity, a block of 30,000 April 19 calls traded for the bid price of 44 cents while a block of 30,000 April 15 puts changed hands for 40 cents (the ask price at the time). It looks like the calls were sold while the puts were bought, for a net credit of four cents per share.

Rosenberg On The Probability Of Another QE Round

Tyler Durden — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 12:10:22 -0500

India ETFs In Freefall As Inflation Concerns Rise

Jim Slagle — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 11:38:11 -0500

Vanguard: US Poised For Growth In 2011

Jim Slagle — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 11:36:21 -0500

Schwab Q4 Net Off 27% On YieldPlus Charges

Jim Slagle — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 11:35:47 -0500

Dollar Shrugs of Strong Data, BoC Raises Growth Forecasts

Kathy Lien — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 11:34:06 -0500

BlackRock Cuts Fees (A Bit) On 35 Foreign ETFs

Jim Slagle — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 11:33:50 -0500

Five ETF Earnings Plays For the Week Ahead

Jim Slagle — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 11:32:32 -0500

Bulls Party Like It's 2007

Drew Birenbaum — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 08:53:08 -0500
The S&P 500 win streak now stands at seven consecutive positive weekly closes, an accomplishment last seen during the early part of 2007.
So far, January has been a great month for the bulls. The S&P 500 is currently up 2.8%, and the NASDAQ an astounding 3.8%.

Forex: 3 Potential Disappointments

Kathy Lien — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 08:49:01 -0500

GLD Standing on Precipice of Chart Support

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 08:45:54 -0500

I wanted to give a quick chart-based update to my prior post this week “Key Daily and Weekly Price Level to Watch in Gold GLD” which goes into a bit more detail than this quick update.

It’s rare to have such a major commodity ‘hanging out’ at such a critical key level from the technical analysis perspective.

Let’s start with the Daily and move to the Weekly chart:

CBOE Publishing Intraday VIX Term Structure

Jared Woodard — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 08:44:24 -0500

The Limits of the New Normal

Jim Picerno — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 08:43:07 -0500

Weighing the Week Ahead: All Eyes on Earnings

Jeff Miller — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 08:41:41 -0500

In the near term, the two most important market questions are the following:

Will corporate earnings continue the consistent strength of the last eighteen months?
How much of this has the market already anticipated?

To understand the importance of these quesitons it helps to look at how well companies have done in recent quarter. Bespoke Investment Group's charts have a way of combining simplicity with a powerful message. This chart of the "beat rate" is no different.

Manage Risk by Shorting VXX

Bill Luby — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 08:35:22 -0500

Since I am not sure how many readers review the comments section, I thought I should pass along a recent reader Q&A in post format in order to capture the attention of a broader audience. By the way, if you would like to see more Q&A in this space or have a specific question you are longing for an answer to, just hit up the comments section below.
Reader Mike submits:

With less $$ going into the VXX ETF due to other options to shoppers, in theory VXX should continue dropping in price value as well, correct?

What a Run!

Jerry Slusiewicz — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 05:55:32 -0500

Mad Men or Happy Days Market?

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 04:15:57 -0500

This is such a weird market…clear lack of selling pressure without scaring anyone into action. Slip, sliding away in reverse, as shorts get nicked a few basis points per day. For someone who thrives on volatility, this slow grind up is a torturous test of patience. What is going on here?

Bullish Sentiment Could Dampen Stock Rally

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 12:06:17 -0500

After the close on December 20 with the S&P 500 standing at 1,247, we performed an analysis which led to the conclusion bullish stock market sentiment was not a barrier to further stock gains. Since then, the S&P 500 has gained 3.12% and the Investors Intelligence Advisory Sentiment Bull/Bear Ratio has increased from 2.77 to 3.00. With valuations and market technicals currently stretched, it is a good time to revisit the possible role of sentiment in the weeks ahead.

If They Want the Green Shoes, Sell 'Em the Green Shoes

Chip Hanlon — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 11:43:03 -0500

Not a surprise about the general state of the muni market, but not good:
New Hit to Strapped States
To toot my own horn for a moment, here's a quick look back at an excerpt from this October Post:

Frontrunning: January 14th

Tyler Durden — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 08:44:54 -0500

Reading Room: 1.14.2011

Jim Picerno — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 08:44:12 -0500

►Uncle Sam Wants His AAA Rating
Two major credit ratings agencies warned Thursday that the United States might tarnish its triple-A credit rating if its national debt kept growing...But many economists say the reckoning, if it comes, is still years or even decades away. The bond market shrugged at Thursday’s news. Indeed, even some experts who want to see the deficit reduced said now is not the time to cut federal spending drastically, given the weakness in the economy and high unemployment.

A Lesson in Trading Intraday Arc Divergences in UUP

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 08:43:25 -0500

I always like doing “Step-Inside” analysis with trades and price structure, especially when combined with a known reference level on the higher timeframes.

Let me walk you through a very good recent example of setting up and trading two specific high-probability, low-risk opportunities in the UUP – US Dollar Index EFT (lesson would be the same with the Dollar Futures Contract).

In fact, this type of lesson – divergences, arc patterns, and higher timeframe resistance – is just as applicable on any stock or market.

The Curious Case of Buy-Write ETFs BXY

Bob Barnes — Fri, 14 Jan 2011 08:36:10 -0500

Commodities Warp: A Day Later...

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 06:10:04 -0500

Right Side of Cup Crossover Can Yield Strong Gains

David Grandey — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 04:54:22 -0500

All stocks at some point in time will go into a period of consolidation. This is healthy as it allows the stock to digest its gains and set a new area of support from which to eventually move higher.

One long side pattern that typically yields big gains is what we call the “Right Side Of The Cup Crossover Pattern”. Let’s take a look at SNHY:

Possibilities for 2011

Clif Droke — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 03:41:05 -0500

Bullish predictions galore have been made from all corners of Wall Street, with many analysts predicting anywhere from a 9% to a 17% gain for stocks in 2011. That’s quite the about face from the previous two years when analysts and investors alike were gun shy from the credit crisis with many of them preferring bond funds over stocks.

Succeed by Not Failing

Jeff White — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 03:22:36 -0500

Too many traders think a winning trade is a good trade, and a losing trade is a bad trade…a failure. I disagree.

The result of a trade is either a profit or a loss, but not a success or a failure. Good trades can end up being losses, and poor trades can sometimes result in a profit. For example, jumping in front of a big move on a whim in hopes of getting lucky timing a reversal is a poor trade, but it may still make you money. Good luck repeating that over time.

Wholesale Price Trend Confirms Monetary (Dis)Inflation

Brad Zigler — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 03:03:49 -0500

Wholesale prices measured by the Producer Price Index rose in December. The index for finished goods (PPI-FG) climbed 1.1 percent, the sixth consecutive monthly increase reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
An annual basis, PPI-FG advanced at a 4.0 percent rate. Though the rate of annual inflation is positive, PPI-FG has actually been trending lower since peaking at 6.0 percent in March 2010.

Gold Miners: A Bearish Hedge For Chickens

Brad Zigler — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 02:54:43 -0500

You might have noticed that gold's upward momentum has been blunted recently. Last month, two attempts to take out the November high failed, leaving prices languishing.
For holders of gold mining stocks, times are even tougher, especially the early-stage companies populating the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDXJ). The GDXJ portfolio gained 54.7 percent in 2010, compared to bullion's 29.8 percent rise, but now mining stocks are falling at twice gold's rate of descent.

Mike Krieger Deconstructs Commodity Inflation: "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet"

Tyler Durden — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 02:45:14 -0500

Submitted by Mike Krieger of KAM LP
Commodity Inflation: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet
Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of gentlemen, barter is the money of peasants – but debt is the money of slaves.
- Norm Franz, Money and Wealth in the New Millennium

BlackRock's Gold ETF, With Its Lower Fees, Gains on SPDR

Jim Slagle — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 01:20:25 -0500

Quick Trip to S1 and Back

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 01:17:05 -0500

ETFs Move Before Indexes Do

Jim Slagle — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 01:14:06 -0500

Russell Investments to Acquire ETF Provider U.S. One

Jim Slagle — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 01:11:40 -0500

Vanguard Withdraws Plans for Muni Bond ETFs

Jim Slagle — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 01:09:53 -0500

Schwab Debuts Midcap And REIT ETFs

Jim Slagle — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 01:05:02 -0500

Why Fundamentals Favor Rare Earth ETF

Jim Slagle — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 01:04:07 -0500

Finally, The Facebook and Twitter Fund is Here

Jim Slagle — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 01:00:26 -0500

Ben Stein: In Love With ETFs—And Cash

Jim Slagle — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 12:57:18 -0500

Trading Strategies in Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX)

Steve Claussen — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 12:55:16 -0500
With copper and gold prices expected to keep charging higher, it's no surprise that analysts have turned their attention to Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE:FCX). Monday, Stifel Nicolaus upped its rating on the stock to "buy" from "hold" with a 12-month price target of $140 (according to Bloomberg). This is roughly 18% of upside from current levels.
FCX shares are poised to overtake the 120 level for the first time since mid-2008. The stock's uptrend has been strong, taking the shares 80% higher in the past six months.

S&P Melt-Up Price Momentum: A Once In Never Event

Tyler Durden — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 12:45:40 -0500

Palladium ETFs Supported by Support and Demand Imbalance

Kevin Grewal — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 11:59:53 -0500

Imbalances in supply and demand continues to push the price of palladium up, as the metal hit an intraday trading high of $804 a troy ounce, the highest levels in nearly ten years, giving positive support to the ETFS Palladium Shares ETF (NYSE: PALL) and the ETFS Physical White Metal Basket Shares (NYSE: WITE).

Schwab Rolls Out REIT ETF (SCHH), Mid Cap ETF (SCHM)

Michael Johnston — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 11:53:29 -0500

On Raising the Debt Ceiling: Then and Now

Chip Hanlon — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 11:52:20 -0500

Guess the speaker:
The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. Leadership means that "the buck stops here." Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better. I therefore intend to oppose the effort to increase America's debt limit.
Those were the words of the then-junior Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama-- in 2006!

Dollar Tumbles after Weak Jobless Claims

Kathy Lien — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 11:46:19 -0500

What the U.S. economy needs the most right now is jobs. It is the missing ingredient in the U.S. recovery that has frustrated Federal Reserve officials the most and explains why the dollar fell sharply following this morning's U.S. economic reports. The sell-off in the U.S. dollar drove the euro above 1.32 towards 1.33, the pound above 1.58, USD/JPY to 82.50 and the Aussie back above parity.

Why Investor Lack of Knowledge About ETFs Is a Good Thing

Tom Lydon — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 12:33:31 -0500

Frontrunning: January 13th

Tyler Durden — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 08:59:42 -0500

The Politics of the Debt Ceiling

Jim Picerno — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 08:59:10 -0500

A new poll says the public's against it, but the debt ceiling's probably going to rise anyway. So much for representing the people's wishes.

A mere 18% of citizens support a higher limit on the nation's debt vs. 71% opposed to the idea, according to poll released yesterday by Reuters/Ipsos. The current ceiling is the tidy sum of $14.3 trillion. That's a chunk of change everywhere else on the planet, but it won't suffice in Washington for much longer.

The Illinois Tax Increase: Why Investors Should Care

Jeff Miller — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 08:53:41 -0500

Are you thinking about the markets, or do you have a fixation on politics?

The politics versus investing theme is familiar to readers of "A Dash." Why do I keep beating this drum? Because it is so important.

A Small Digression

I enjoyed Josh Brown's wonderful advice on blogging:

Guest Columnist for Barron's The Striking Price

Bill Luby — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 08:52:50 -0500

The last few times I have been asked to be a guest columnist for The Striking Price on behalf of Steven Sears at Barron’s, there has been a spike in volatility just about the time I go to commit my thoughts to paper keyboard + monitor. I had begun to think that the folks at Barron’s were somehow omniscient and knew when to put in a call to the bullpen for “that volatility guy.”

China's Lending Quota?

Michael Pettis — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 08:51:18 -0500

This year to everyone's surprise the PBoC failed to announce 2011's lending quota. Instead it announced a series of new polices aimed at monitoring the banks. According to an article in Thursday's People's Daily:

VIX Volatility Rotator

Bob Barnes — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 08:47:18 -0500

USD: Cause for Optimism

Kathy Lien — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 06:02:35 -0500

A Quick Look at the December Decoupling of Stocks and the Euro

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 05:51:41 -0500

I wanted to make a quick observation and chart of the temporary “December Decoupling” of the US S&P 500 Index and the Euro Index, which has in the past enjoyed a strong positive correlation.

Let’s take a look and see what may be important factors to watch:

Commodities Wrap: Market Reaction

Gary Gordon — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 04:55:39 -0500

Institutional Investors Abandon Consumer ETFs… Should You?

Gary Gordon — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 04:49:22 -0500

As of 1/5/2011, Consumer Discretionary ETFs became the weakest performing sector on a 1-month rolling return basis. One week later, on 1/12/2011, a high volume display of ”selling on strength” further victimized the collective well-being of consumer stocks.

Rydex Launches Equal Weight ACWI ETF (EWAC)

Michael Johnston — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 04:48:40 -0500

Gap & Run Trend Day

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 04:31:29 -0500

The Running of the Bulls

Editorial Staff — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 03:57:05 -0500

By Guest Contributor

Facebook Will Be Forced To Go Public

SPrice33 — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 01:30:11 -0500

Providers Respond to Fundsmith's Criticisms of Synthetic ETF's

SPrice33 — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 01:24:47 -0500

PowerShares Ag ETF Cratering Off Of Highs

SPrice33 — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 01:23:35 -0500

Euro ETFs Look for Firm Direction

SPrice33 — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 01:14:59 -0500

Apple & Verizon Team Up On iPhone: How Will ETFs Respond?

SPrice33 — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 01:12:18 -0500

Do ETFs Turn Beta Into Alpha?

SPrice33 — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 01:11:20 -0500

ETF Trends To Watch In 2011

SPrice33 — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 01:05:21 -0500

AdvisorShares, TrimTabs Plan ETF

SPrice33 — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 01:04:29 -0500

A Winning Mindset

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 12:57:13 -0500

After putting a hoop over the door in my son’s room, I was dismayed to hear him screaming every time he missed, to the point of tears after his latest cold streak. Being only 5 years into this parenting thing means every day brings a lesson, so what do I do now? He’s into numbers and dates and scores, so I said “Why don’t I help you make a calendar, and each day you can write the score of how many baskets you make in 20 minutes?”. He bought it, and is now 3 weeks into his shooting and recordkeeping career.

The Global Commodity Equity Index Hits 27-Month High

Tyler Durden — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 12:47:54 -0500

Quote the chairman: "This fear of inflation is way overstated. We've looked at it very, very carefully. We've analyzed it every which way... We will not allow inflation to rise above 2% or less... I am 100% certain i can control inflation." Presenting the Jefferies global commodity index (CRB) which just hit a 27 month high.

Supply Concerns to Support Crude Oil ETFs

Kevin Grewal — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 12:32:21 -0500

Supply concerns pushed crude futures contacts north of $90 per barrel on Tuesday, providing positive price support to the US Oil Fund (USO), PowerShares DB Oil Fund (DBO) and the iShares Dow Jones US Oil & Gas Ex Index (IEO).

AdvisorShares Partners with TrimTabs to Develop Active ETF

Shishir Nigam — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 12:26:11 -0500

On Jan 11^th, 2011, AdvisorShares announced a brand new partnership with TrimTabs Investment Research that will lead to the development of a new actively-managed ETF. The new Active ETF will apply TrimTabs’ liquidity-based investment strategy, according to the press release.

Oil Prices Rally On Supply Expectations

Brad Zigler — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 12:18:46 -0500

U.S. oil inventories declined for the third straight week, according to the weekly status report released by the U.S. Energy Department this morning. Government data showed commercial stocks decreased by 2.2 million barrels to 333.1 million.
The report had little effect on oil futures, which traded between $91 and $92 a barrel overnight following Tuesday's run-up of nearly $2.

Currencies Dictate we Turn Our Focus Back to U.S.

Kathy Lien — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 11:44:02 -0500

Market Plays 20 Questions

Dock David Treece — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 11:30:43 -0500

Most of the headlines lately have been consumed with stories unrelated to business or the markets. Though many are still focused on the tragedy in Tucson, we will try out best to stick to relevant subject matter that relates to investing and economics.

Since the New Year many investments - stocks and gold, for example - have paused in their upward rally. The question is whether this is a pause that will refresh the market before it moves higher, or if it is the top before the decline.

Frontrunning: January 12th

Tyler Durden — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 09:00:39 -0500

Ten Things that Will be "More Normal" in 2011

Jeff Miller — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 08:59:36 -0500

Getting on the right side of trends is important for successful investing. The biggest theme for 2011 is that many things will become "more normal."

EUR/USD Maintains Support

Greg Michalowski — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 08:56:32 -0500

The 1.2968 level which was the low on November 30th 2010 (see chart below), and the 100 hour MA were pounded but the momentum down could not be sustained. The market will continue to eye the key level as NY opens and the day progresses. Traders will want to see momentum selling if the level is broken again.

Macro Surveillance: 1.12.2011

Jim Picerno — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 08:53:08 -0500

China central bank adviser sees Q1 interest rate rise
Another Chinese interest rate increase in the first quarter is likely, a central bank adviser said on Wednesday, but a vice governor cautioned against raising rates too steeply for fear of luring in hot money.
Reuters, Jan 12

World Food Sub-Index Prices

Bill Luby — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 08:48:02 -0500

Sometimes I just don’t know when to leave well enough alone, particularly when it involves that Holy Grailesque quest to cram every potentially relevant piece of data into one overcrowded chart.

Country Rotator Swings EWJ, GAF, IFN

Bob Barnes — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 08:42:35 -0500

Dollar: Assessing Risk Appetite

Kathy Lien — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 05:43:30 -0500

Trend Day to Top of Range

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 05:40:01 -0500

The market has made considerable headway this morning, but is struggling mightily with R2, which roughly corresponds with the recent prior SPY highs.

Gold Dances to a Different Contango

Brad Zigler — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 05:38:53 -0500

Some investors in the oil market lost big as they danced the contango in 2010. Owners holding shares of the United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) actually lost 0.7 percent even though front-month WTI prices rose 15.2 percent on the year. USO's contango-resistant sibling, the United States 12-Month Oil Fund (NYSE Arca: USL), fared better by wringing out 6.5 percent in capital appreciation against the stiff carrying-charge headwind.

Commodities Wrap: A Storm is Brewing

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 05:37:05 -0500

Schwab’s Iachini Argues in Favor of All-ETF Portfolios

Jim Slagle — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 01:38:51 -0500

3 Keys to Vanguard's ETF Success

Jim Slagle — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 01:24:03 -0500

Three ETFs To Watch As China Invests In The Euro Zone

Jim Slagle — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 01:14:01 -0500

11 Predictions For The ETF Industry In 2011

Jim Slagle — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 01:12:55 -0500

Two ETFs To Reap Earnings Growth In Financial Sector

Kevin Grewal — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 12:28:17 -0500

Despite facing new and fresh stress tests, large-cap financial institutions appear to be positioned for earnings-per-share growth in 2011, making the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) and the iShares Dow Jones US Regional Banks Index Fund (IAT) attractive.

Official Oil Spill Report Hits. One Editorial Sums it up Perfectly

Chip Hanlon — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 12:05:19 -0500

The Obama Administration's oil spill commission has released its final, official report this morning (link).
The surprise conclusion? The whole industry was responsible! Oh, wait... that's no surprise at all. In fact, it's the only way this administration can continue to defend what critics-- myself included-- call the "permitorium."

Forex: Who is the Riskiest of them All?

Kathy Lien — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 11:43:41 -0500

With no major U.S. economic reports scheduled for release today, it is no surprise to see the U.S. dollar trading up against some currencies and down against others. The lack of consistency in the dollar's performance indicates the market's appetite for dollars is not driving the flows in the currency market. Instead, currencies such as the euro and Australian dollar are fluctuating purely based on domestic developments, with U.S. fundamentals being only an ancillary focus.

Frontrunning: January 11th

Tyler Durden — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 08:37:36 -0500

Will Austerity Bite Consumption?

Jim Picerno — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 08:36:38 -0500

This may be the age of austerity, but consumer spending has surprised the pessimists and rebounded sharply over the past year. That's no trivial revival, considering that personal consumption expenditures (PCE) represent 70% of GDP in the U.S. For good or ill, ours is a consumer-based economy. But is the consumer still up to the job?

S&P Goes For Seven In a Row

Drew Birenbaum — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 08:34:49 -0500
If the bulls can drive the markets higher this week, the S&P 500 will confirm seven consecutive positive weekly closes.
This would certainly be an accomplishment, as it has been quite some time since we have had seven upside weeks in a row on the S&P.

Over the last couple of years, the S&P 500 has had two six-week winning streaks (March 2009 and March 2010). However, both of those uptrends failed to confirm a seventh positive weekly close.

Moving on to our analysis of last week's performance, the bulls managed to kick off 2011 on a high note.

Country Weakness Continues EFA, EEM

Bob Barnes — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 08:32:01 -0500

Commodities Wrap: Clicking on All Cylinders

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 07:13:39 -0500

Big Gains Come From Buying Leading Stocks at Support

David Grandey — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 06:15:26 -0500

While the indexes continue to show range-bound trade, stocks like ROVI, NFLX and AAPL are showing us it's a market of stocks.
And to make the most of your trading, all you need to know is:

Support, Resistance, The 50 day and Trend Channel Support and Resistance. There is no need to make it any harder than it needs to be. Below is the 60 minute chart of the S&P 500

Strategic Eye Candy

Jim Picerno — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 05:26:40 -0500

Strategic investment perspective is essential, but it doesn’t grow on trees. If you’re looking for context beyond the usual suspects, you’ll have to dig deeper. The good news is that there are lots of opportunities for mining strategic intelligence. Too many, perhaps. One of the biggest challenges in developing intuition about portfolio design and management is deciding where to cut off the analysis and start making actual investment decisions.

Key Daily and Weekly Price Level to Watch Closely on Gold (GLD)

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 05:24:50 -0500

Gold – and it’s popular proxy ETF GLD – has come into a very interesting technical (chart) level right here on both the daily and weekly charts as we begin 2011.

For investors and traders in gold/GLD, it’s a good idea to be aware of these levels and the IF/THEN chart contingencies these create if the level holds… or breaks.

Let’s start with the Weekly GLD Structure and then slide down to the Daily:

Emerging Market ETFs: Profit-Takers Cash in Several of the 2010 Superstars

Gary Gordon — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 04:50:46 -0500

Bullishness in the media is a bit extreme. Perhaps a few pundits should turn their attention to the high volume hit squads that have pounded on Chile (ECH), Indonesia (IDX), Peru (EPU), South Africa (EZA) and Thailand (THD).

Gold Is For The Little Guys Now

Brad Zigler — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 02:36:12 -0500

There’s been a fair amount of jawboning about gold’s recent weakness—mostly talk of asset reallocation and the unwinding of end-of-year window dressing. The most recent CFTC data gives credence to these notions.

Retail Gas Prices up 55% in Obama's First Two Years

Chip Hanlon — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 02:12:40 -0500

In shooting holes through the 'Bush was an oil industry crony who wanted to drive up oil prices' myth, the Heritage Foundation is back today with another great, short post to consider:
Gas Prices Under President Obama in Pictures
Indeed, Heritage reminds us that it is this administration's stated policy to try and drive energy prices higher:

A Blow for Notion of Small Actively-Managed ETF Managers

Jim Slagle — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 02:12:33 -0500

Vanguard's Unusual Gripe: ETFs Overhyped on Taxes

Jim Slagle — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 02:11:44 -0500

PIMCO Short Maturity ETF Feels Needed Niche

Jim Slagle — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 01:26:12 -0500

BulletShares High Yield Indexes Debut

Jim Slagle — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 01:16:50 -0500

20 Top Performing Country ETFs of 2010

Jim Slagle — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 01:14:29 -0500

Oil Services Hammered Again

Jim Slagle — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 01:13:44 -0500

5 Sector ETFs to Consider for 2011

Jim Slagle — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 01:07:59 -0500

94% of the S&P 500's Performance In 2010 Occured on the First Trading Day of Each Month

Tyler Durden — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 12:54:34 -0500

Four Reasons Gold ETFs Are Expected to Keep Luster

Kevin Grewal — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 12:37:28 -0500

As gold continues to oscillate ahead and below the $1,400 per ounce mark, some suggest that the precious metal could be in a bubble, but there are four reasons the metal is likely to sustain its price levels in the near future.

For ETF Investors, The Details Matter

Michael Johnston — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 12:27:02 -0500

When constructing a portfolio, most investors focus on the decisions that seem to have the most significant impact on the risk/return profile delivered. How much should be allocated to stocks vs. bonds? What breakdown between developed and emerging markets is desired? What sectors should be overweight, and which should be avoided?

Chart of the Week: World Food Prices

Bill Luby — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 12:21:09 -0500

Talk of rising commodities prices seems to focus primarily on energy and metals, with agricultural commodities often overlooked, at least in the United States.

January Signposts for Exchange Traded Funds

John Nyaradi — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 12:18:56 -0500

New Year’s is the time for resolutions, new diets and goal setting, but it’s also a time when trends in the stock market and exchange traded funds can be set for the coming year.

Here are three January trends to watch for that might predict how the rest of 2011 could go for exchange traded funds and equities markets in general.

ETF Deathwatch for January 2011

Ron Rowland — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 12:07:38 -0500

The quantity of exchange-traded products (ETPs) on ETF Deathwatch increased to 143 (106 ETFs and 37 ETNs) as we enter 2011. This is the first list based on the new ETF Deathwatch criteria, which is intended to help stabilize the constituents from month to month. Even though we now exclude products with assets under management (AUM) exceeding $25 million, other struggling products replaced the half-dozen or so funds that took advantage of that exclusion.

Using QE to Your Advantage Part 4 - Does an Edge Equal a Trade?

Rob Hanna — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 12:03:44 -0500

This post is the next in the series "Using Quantifiable Edges to Your Advantage". The first few posts examined how I lay out the studies, and what I look for when examining results that would make a study compelling. Today I will touch on what it means to have a compelling edge. Does it justify a trade? What if multiple studies appear to contradict each other?

Canadian Dollar: Not Benefiting from the Rise in Oil

Kathy Lien — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 12:00:27 -0500

Here Comes Earnings Season

John Nyaradi — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 11:59:38 -0500

ETF action was mixed this week as the New Year got off to a fast start but enthusiasm waned towards the end of the week after a less positive than expected employment report.

This week marks the start of the all important earnings season and also includes some important economic reports with a particularly significant wave on Friday. Together these events should set the tone for stock markets and exchange traded funds in January.

The View From 35,000 Feet

Frontrunning: January 10th

Tyler Durden — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 09:12:22 -0500

Violent Outcomes

Jim Picerno — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 09:11:46 -0500

Political assassination and the United States aren’t usually discussed in the same breath, but they are now. In the wake of the Arizona shooting rampage on Saturday at a public event that critically injured U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, killed a federal judge, and left more than a dozen others dead or wounded, morning in America today has a sad new meaning.

Euro Auctions to be Focus for Week

Greg Michalowski — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 09:10:27 -0500

Weighing the Week Ahead: Stormy Weather

Jeff Miller — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 09:08:17 -0500

How much attention should you pay to breaking news? Does it matter if your time frame is measured in months, weeks, days, or minutes?

For the trading community there is an obsession about news. The individual investor often tries to use the news to time the market. This is a big mistake.

Does an Edge Equal a Trade?

Rob Hanna — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 09:06:59 -0500
This post is the next in the series "Using Quantifiable Edges to Your Advantage". The first few posts examined how I lay out the studies, and what I look for when examining results that would make a study compelling. Today I will touch on what it means to have a compelling edge. Does it justify a trade? What if multiple studies appear to contradict each other?

Chart of the Week: World Food Prices

Bill Luby — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 09:06:14 -0500

Talk of rising commodities prices seems to focus primarily on energy and metals, with agricultural commodities often overlooked, at least in the United States.

Commodities Wrap: Job Numbers - A Non-Event

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 06:34:02 -0500

S2 Catch

Jeff Pietsch — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 06:28:06 -0500

Unable to make upside progress, markets fell relatively hard to second support, where we’ve caught a bid. However, unlike earlier in the week, it’s difficult to see much upside beyond the VWAP, if even that.

London Calling? Surprising Fund Flow Into iShares MSCI United Kingdom (EWU)

Gary Gordon — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 05:47:39 -0500

Thirty plus years ago, I spent an entire summer in Scotland with a friend’s family. I remember being thrilled to ride a motorcycle over the moors and hills. I also remember the persistent rain that caused me to crash on more than one occasion. And the sheep… wow, did they shear a lot of sheep in that sleepy town of Calender.

I must admit, though… Scotland has never been my cup of tea. In fact, the United Kingdom – England, Scotland Wales, Northern Ireland — has never really been on my investing map.

USD: Are You Worried About Retail Sales?

Kathy Lien — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 05:42:04 -0500

Real Silver Highs

Adam Hamilton — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 03:00:52 -0500

Gold Gives Up Gains

Brad Zigler — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 02:32:40 -0500

This week, bullion gave up the gains scored the previous week against sterling and the euro. Reserve currencies, in fact, made a clean sweep against gold. Sterling’s value in gold appreciated 2.9 percent while the euro improved by 2.7 percent. Both the yen and the Swiss franc gained 1.6 percent vs. bullion.

For the week ending Thursday, dollar-denominated markers signaled a tempering of fear and higher expectations of recovery:

Five ETFs to Hedge Against Inflation

Kevin Grewal — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 01:44:23 -0500

As the US government has resorted to excessive spending measures to keep the economy from completely crumbling, many investors suggest that inflation is inevitable and could even prevail in the coming months.

How High Can Stocks Go?

Chris Ciovacco — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 01:18:43 -0500

Mr. Market's Clues

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 12:02:02 -0500

December ETF Roundup: $1 Trillion and Counting

Michael Johnston — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 12:00:24 -0500

U.S. ETF assets topped $1 trillion for the first time in December, as a year-end rally in global equity markets and another strong month of inflows pushed the industry past the milestone. ETF assets also finished the year above this key mark, according to the latest data from the National Stock Exchange, representing an increase of 28% over the previous year. Since the end of 2005, ETF assets have grown by nearly 225%.

Dollar Tanks on Disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls Numbers

Kathy Lien — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 11:49:51 -0500

Shares of Telecom Drop Along with iPhone Prices

Jim Farrish — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 11:55:28 -0500

Telecom is down nearly 2% on the day as AT&T stated they would sell iPhone 3GS for $49 versus the current $99. Competition is heating up as Verizon launches the iPhone later this year and WalMart already lowered the price on the iPhone. Metro PCS stated their fourth-quarter subscriber rate slowed over the previous quarter. Competition from AT&T and Verizon is the logical reason. The disappointing news comes on the heels of the upbeat outlook for tablets and increase in wireless demand and takes back the gains from yesterday.

US Data Shows Weaker Job Growth

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 08:38:32 -0500

Non-Farm Payroll: 103k vs 71k (was 39K)
Private Sector Jobs: 113k vs 79k (was 50K)
Unemployment Rate: 9.4 vs 9.8 (was 9.8%)

The number is worse from a jobs standpoint. The prior months were revised. The Unemployment rate fell dramatically as workforce shrank by around 500,000.

USDJPY went down to test 82.87 and bounced.

When Will Job Growth End the Housing Slump?

Jim Picerno — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 08:31:20 -0500

The labor market and housing are two of the biggest headwinds still hobbling the economy. Job growth, at least, seems to be picking up, as ADP’s latest estimate of payrolls suggests. The case for optimism faces a higher hurdle with housing, however, a sector where the suffering rolls on.

How bad is it? A picture’s worth a thousand words, as they say. Consider the annual rate of change in four housing indicators:

Shorting VXX and Long XXV or XIV

Bill Luby — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 08:29:28 -0500

If you are interested in the VIX and related options and futures products, 2010 saw the arrival of an excellent new blog which is all over that space: Volatility Futures & Options.

The KRE Situation

Bob Barnes — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 08:22:52 -0500

Oil: Sometimes It Pays to Carry On

Brad Zigler — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 07:26:36 -0500

In a market such as this, some people may feel it’s better to stuff money into their mattresses rather than keeping it in a bank. After all, interest rates are appallingly low and more than few folks feel disinclined to give the “banksters” another crack at their hard-earned lucre.

For those chary to disturb the padding on their Posturepedics or Sleep Numbers, perhaps an oil drum (well, okay … a thousand oil drums) provides a better rate of return.

Commodities Wrap: Waiting Game for NFP

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 07:25:17 -0500

Pivot under Attack

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 07:24:16 -0500

Depending on one’s point of view, the daily SPY pivot is either under attack -or- providing strong support…. With internals weak, I prefer to err on the side of the former premise, holding onto light shorts for now, but willing to lose them fast should the market catch a bid in the second half.

USD: Not Everyone Believes Payrolls Will Be Good

Kathy Lien — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 07:16:33 -0500

Lesson in Playing Intraday SPY Reversals with Two Timeframes and Divergences

Corey Rosenbloom — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 04:28:19 -0500

I think it’s important to document interesting examples of trading concepts played out during the day, as it serves both as an educational reference and deepens our knowledge about these concepts, which helps us to trade better the next time a similar set-up or opportunity unfolds in real time.

A great educational example – and good followthrough – formed on January 4th intraday reversal play that was telegraphed WELL in advance by various factors – some of which I wanted to show you so you can use them as a reference.

They include:

Hedge Fund Results

Ray Barros — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 02:43:12 -0500

According to Insider Monkey, hedge funds did not have such a great year. I guess that means that quite a few investors withdrew.

I started my fund in 1990 with Buffett’s partnership investment vehicle as my vehicle. For the most part the same investors stayed with me until I closed it in 2010. On reflection I was very lucky with this group of investors but just didn’t know it at the time.

Four ETFs Impacted by Increasing Food Prices

Kevin Grewal — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 01:11:25 -0500

The global price of food continues to increase illustrated by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s monthly food price index rising to 214.7, the sixth consecutive month that the index has risen as supply and demand imbalances continue to take their toll on food prices.

Bonds Get Crushed

Editorial Staff — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 12:49:28 -0500

The More They Scream...

Chip Hanlon — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 12:46:13 -0500

...the bigger the spending cuts the new House GOP should demand:
Geithner Urges Congress to Raise Debt Limit
America's return to fiscal sanity: it's now or never, gang.

ETF Assets Top $1 Trillion for First Time

Editorial Staff — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 02:35:35 -0500

At Death's Door, Grail Reportedly in a Fire Sale

Editorial Staff — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 12:35:19 -0500

Why the Long-Short VIX ETF Merits Attention

Editorial Staff — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 12:32:28 -0500

Interesting: GLD Holdings Lowest Since June

Editorial Staff — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 12:31:33 -0500

Global X Launches Aluminum ETF (ALUM)

Michael Johnston — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 12:18:03 -0500

WisdomTree Launches Managed Futures Active ETF (WDTI)

Shishir Nigam — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 12:14:53 -0500

WisdomTree Investments brought a brand new actively-managed ETF to market yesterday on Jan 5^th, called the WisdomTree Managed Futures Strategy Fund (WDT). WDTI is the very first managed futures strategy to be brought to the marketplace in an ETF wrapper. WDTI is listed on the NYSE Arca and will employ a quantitative, rules-based strategy that is designed to provide returns that correspond to the performance of the Diversified Trends Indicator^TM, or DTI Index. The fund will have an expense ratio of 0.95%.

Consumer Discretionary ETFs Are Struggling to Keep Up

Gary Gordon — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 12:07:39 -0500

Wednesday’s economic data offered more than a glimmer of hope for the recession-weary. According to ADP’s monthly survey, private payrolls increased by a staggering 300,000 new jobs. The number tripled economist expectations and it represented the largest single-month booster shot since the survey began back in 2000.

Your Bookie's Take on Inflation

Brad Zigler — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 12:05:05 -0500

Six months ago, we sharpened our pencils, pulled the green eyeshade snug on our brow and laid down the odds on inflation for various time horizons stretching into 2011. The top of the year then represented an intermediate prospect, so it’s now time to check up on our forecast and cast our eyes further into the future.

Dollar's Pre Payroll Gains Warranted?

Kathy Lien — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 12:02:32 -0500

Jobless Claims Rose Last Week, But the Trend is Still Favorable

Jim Picerno — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 11:46:35 -0500

New filings for jobless benefits jumped by 18,000 to 409,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in the final week of 2010, according to this morning’s Labor Department update. That’s a bit of a disappointment after last week’s news that initial claims dipped below 400,000 for first time since the summer of 2008. But it’s hardly time to throw in the towel on expecting better days ahead for the labor market.

CBOE to Publish Volatility Indices for Individual Stocks

Bill Luby — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 08:49:46 -0500

The volatility space continues to expand in the direction of the atomic level, with today’s announcement by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) that it will begin disseminating implied volatility data utilizing the VIX calculation methodology for five stocks as of Friday, January 7^th.

The five stocks are:

Amazon (AMZN): volatility ticker: VXAZN
Apple (AAPL): volatility ticker: VXAPL
Google (GOOG): volatility ticker: VXGOG

Frontrunning: January 6th

Tyler Durden — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 08:48:33 -0500

Macro Surveillance: 1.6.2011

Jim Picerno — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 08:45:40 -0500

Predictions for 2011 by BlackRock’s Bob Doll
● U.S. stocks will record 3rd straight year of double-digit gains
● US Real GDP Will Hit All Time High in ’11, Marking Economy’s Transition from Recovery to Expansion
“Our expected gains for the equity markets for 2011 are not much different from what we expected for 2010,” he said. “What’s different for 2011 is that market risk will be more to the upside than was the case in 2010.”

In Search of HFT

Bob Barnes — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 08:39:35 -0500

USD: Making Sense of ADP vs. ISM

Kathy Lien — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 05:44:35 -0500

Commodities Wrap: Pedal to the Floor

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 05:42:04 -0500

A "Stop Buying" Signal

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 03:49:22 -0500

True chartists can come up with a better term for Tuesday’s action, but I call it a “1 Since Hi” day. No matter the individual stock setups, I avoid buying these days as one never knows how sharp the shift will be from a positive feedback loop to a negative one. It’s kind of like slamming on the brakes…it depends how fast you were going, how far in front of you the next car is, etc.

2011 Predictions

Dock David Treece — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 01:54:38 -0500

QE2 & Stock Market Breadth Still Question the 'Smart Money'

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 01:47:09 -0500

The ‘smart money’ has been calling for a correction for over six weeks now, often citing extended sentiment to build their case. We looked at sentiment recently and agree it raises yellow flags that need to be respected, but sentiment alone is not a reason to head for the exits (yet).

Wisdom Tree Launches Managed Futures ETF?

Editorial Staff — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 11:43:03 -0500

The 60-Second Difference Between the Aluminum ETN and the New ETF

Editorial Staff — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 01:36:37 -0500

Stealth Trend Day

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 01:32:48 -0500

What's Up With Gold?

Brad Zigler — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 01:28:57 -0500

To answer the headline question: Not much. Not yesterday and not this morning. Gold took a drubbing yesterday, mostly on outright selling rather than the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

First Aluminum ETF Launches

Editorial Staff — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 01:17:41 -0500

Sifting Through the Various Brazil Exchange-Traded Funds

Editorial Staff — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 01:16:53 -0500

ETFs React to Blow-Out Employment Report

Editorial Staff — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 01:11:25 -0500

Van Eck Renames its Nuclear ETF

Editorial Staff — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 01:10:22 -0500

Investors Win as Fund Firms Fight to Cut Fees

Editorial Staff — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 01:08:41 -0500

Best ETF Performers of 2010

Michael Johnston — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 12:17:57 -0500

Last year was a good year for most asset classes, as investor portfolios continued to recover from the recent recession. The difference in performance between many comparable funds was significant, and many of the best performers of 2010 are relatively small funds that maintain considerably smaller asset bases than their more popular competitors. Below, we profiled the top performing ETFs in more than 60 cateogries covering all major asset classes. ETFs that launched in 2010 were excluded, as were those that stopped trading during the year:

ADP: December Payrolls Surge

Jim Picerno — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 11:53:37 -0500

The economy created a net 297,000 jobs in the private sector last month, according to the ADP National Employment Report. That’s the largest monthly gain in the 10-year history for this series. The relatively large increase suggests that Friday’s employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will bring equally encouraging news.

Dollar in Demand Despite Conflicting ISM and ADP

Kathy Lien — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 11:37:47 -0500

Is the Market Leadership in Transition?

Jim Farrish — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 12:30:20 -0500

The broad market looks to be in a transition phase as it attempts to find new leadership. Yesterday’s selling impacted the previous leaders as commodities, retail, industrials, energy and small caps took a direct hit. This of course raises the question of a correction or pullback in the markets. The talking heads are split on the outlook for a modest pullback/profit taking or something more serious. I am in the camp of modest pullback currently. The data behind the move remains positive and the economic data is improving just enough to pacify analysts and investors.

Do Labor Costs Drive Inflation?

Jim Picerno — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 09:09:40 -0500

Discussions over what’s in store for the economy and the markets inevitably turn to inflation. That’s a bit odd, considering that there’s none to speak of at the moment, at least according to official yardsticks. Consumer price inflation is rising at about 1% a year, according to the U.S. Labor Department, or near the lowest pace in decades.

Frontrunning: January 5th

Tyler Durden — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 09:06:58 -0500

Big Names, Big Market Calls

Jeff Miller — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 09:05:32 -0500

In the last two days there have been two rather spectacular predictions about the market. While I am working on my own 2011 preview, I interrupt my regularly scheduled programming to consider the forecasts from these respected sources.

Two Extreme Viewpoints

VXX PDQ +

Bob Barnes — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 08:58:00 -0500

GBP/USD Approaches Target Level

Greg Michalowski — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 08:56:02 -0500

The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.5514 level. The GBPUSD is approaching this target level. The 50% of the move up from the December 27th low to the high comes in at the 1.5501 level. These are key targets that if broken signal even more bearish potential for the shorts

The Economics of Oil Favor Canada ETFs and Oil Services ETF

Gary Gordon — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 06:55:00 -0500

For the better part of 2010, most economists had suggested that global GDP would decelerate into 2011. Over the last 3 months, however, worldwide forecasts have been revised; many now believe that developed economies like the U.S. and Germany are accelerating, while scores of emerging countries will continue to grow in the 6%-8% range.

Lessons from Crude Oil Intraday Head and Shoulders Rollercoaster

Corey Rosenbloom — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 04:49:06 -0500

Wow – you don’t see these sort of “Mirror Image” patterns that often, but they are stellar when they set-up and complete.

Let’s learn some quick lessons you can apply to the future from the recent intraday 30-min Head and Shoulders price pattern reversal – with perfect divergences – and the trade that accompanied the support breakdown.

First, the chart:

Commodities Wrap: Just a Correction

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 04:47:11 -0500

First ETF Tracking VIX Index Debuts

Editorial Staff — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 01:49:39 -0500

In Recovering Economy, Shipping ETF Very Attractive

Editorial Staff — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 01:47:53 -0500

Chile ETF Hit by Currency Intervention

Editorial Staff — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 01:45:00 -0500

The Curious Case of the Italy ETF

Editorial Staff — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 01:43:22 -0500

S&P 500 Eyes 1,313 and 1,326 in 2011

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 01:28:46 -0500

While Monday’s ISM Manufacturing Index came in near expectations, it was the highest reading since May 2010. Production showed healthy gains moving from 55 to 60.7. New orders also gained 4.3 points moving to a bullish 60.9. Eleven of the eighteen industries reported growth. According to the ISM, December’s index level historically has been associated with real GDP growth of 5.0%.

2010: The Year in VIX and Volatility

Bill Luby — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 12:33:15 -0500

One of everybody’s favorite charts from a year ago was the basis for Chart of the Week: The VIX and Volatility in 2009, in which I created a fairly concise annotated summary of the year in VIX and volatility.

Expect A Tough Streak After Positive First Days

Rob Hanna — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 12:14:36 -0500

Last year I showed how the SPX has performed after the first day of the year was positive. Often you see a couple more days of upside followed by a selloff. In fact, there has been quite a streak of January dips after strong first days. Below are the last 10 instances going back to 1988, and their 13-day returns.

At the Top of Your Commodities Shopping List...

Brad Zigler — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 12:12:48 -0500

The report containing the Institute of Supply Management’s monthly Purchasing Managers Index flew over the transom Monday morning. Normally, it’s pretty dry reading. This month, however, there was a gem hidden in the report.

The Arizona-based ISM is the largest supply management association in the world with a membership base of 40,000 professionals who keep their fingers on the pulse of manufacturing. ISM’s purchasing managers are, after all, the guys and gals who buy stuff—stuff like commodities—used to make the goods we buy.

Three ETFs for Increased Manufacturing Activity

Kevin Grewal — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 12:08:55 -0500

The US economy continues to show signs of improvement, reinforcing signs that economic expansion is gaining momentum and an economic recovery is likely sustainable giving positive support to the iShares Dow Jones US Industrials (IYJ), the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW) and the PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB).

ProShares Debuts Two VIX ETFs

Michael Johnston — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 11:55:29 -0500

Forex: Strong Factory Orders Boost Risk, But Flooding Holds Back Aussie

Kathy Lien — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 11:43:17 -0500

Frontrunning: January 4th

Tyler Durden — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 09:15:52 -0500

Research Review: The Great Recession

Jim Picerno — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 09:14:58 -0500

The Great Recession versus the Great Depression: Stylized Facts on Siblings That Were Given Different Foster Parents
Karl Aiginger/May 2010/Economics-ejournal.org

Recap for 2010 and Key Factors in 2011

Drew Birenbaum — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 09:14:20 -0500
The equity markets capped off 2010 with a massive end of year rally, and closed near a new bull market high. The NASDAQ led the way higher, rising 17% for the year, and the S&P 500 gained a more modest 13%.
Both indices confirmed an intermediate-term breakout last month as prices decisively cleared resistance at the April 2010 peak. This type of positive price action leads me to believe that the next key long-term resistance area to watch is the 2007 high. That is indeed the prior bull market peak reached moments before the housing bubble burst.

Gold Breaks Lower

Greg Michalowski — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 09:05:57 -0500

Investment Lessons from 2010

Jeff Miller — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 08:48:22 -0500

Here at "A Dash" I recommend that you join me in reading widely and critically. Most people do not have the time for this, so let me offer a few suggestions for a 2010 review.

S&P 20-Day Volatility Hits 39-Year Low

Bill Luby — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 08:41:51 -0500

Since I haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere else, I thought I should note that 20-day historically volatility in the S&P 500 index hit its lowest level since April 1971, the same month that the Rolling Stones released Sticky Fingers and Charles Manson was sentenced to death.

VXX PDQ Dashboard

Bob Barnes — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 08:32:45 -0500

Five Signs that ETF Investors are "Buying" the Global Recovery

Gary Gordon — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 07:05:18 -0500

Financial papers mention items on the “here’s-what-could-go-wrong” list. They’ll cite the uncertainties surrounding U.S. home price depreciation, state insolvency, European nation credit flare-ups and emerging country inflation.

Nevertheless, the commonplace assumption is that the healing will continue. And the investment community is eating it up. On the first day of 2011 trading on the U.S. exchanges, the appetite for risk came in a variety of forms:

Five Copper ETFs Poised to Grow in 2011

Editorial Staff — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 05:51:32 -0500

Four New Year Resolutions For 2011

David Grandey — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 05:22:30 -0500

It's a New Year, so time to set some new goals, right? Well, in the spirit of keeping it simple and focused, you shouldn't. At All About Trends,
our goals remain the same every month and our goals are simple and focused:

Goal #1 - Protect the value of your account

Goal #2 - How am I going to get my $500 a week. Why only $500 a week, well those modest gains will give you the following annual returns:

96% return on a $25,000 portfolio
48% return on a $50,000 portfolio
24% return on a $100,000 portfolio

Five Copper ETFs Poised to Grow in 2011

Kevin Grewal — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 04:59:51 -0500

In 2010, copper locked in a second consecutive annual gain of nearly 33 percent as demand remained elevated due to growth in emerging markets and a weak dollar. As for the future of the industrial metal, copper’s outlook remains rosy as a supply and demand imbalance is expected to take place providing positive price support to the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX), the iPath Dow Jones Copper Index ETN (JJC), the First Trust ISE Global Copper Index Fund (CU), the PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB) and the iShares MSCI Chile Index (ECH).

Commodities Wrap: Fresh Start

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 04:58:43 -0500

New Year's Bang

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 04:57:52 -0500

Popped Stops and History Repeating in SPX

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 04:56:00 -0500

I had a suspicion a big pop might happen but it’s still sometimes surreal to see it happen first thing in the New Year!

Let’s take a look at the “repeating history” (you might be very surprised) and learn lessons from yet another excellent example of one of my favorite concepts – Popped Stops.

First, the overall structure of the SPX beginning 2011:

T. Rowe Price to Lead Spate of New Active ETF Filings?

Editorial Staff — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 04:54:21 -0500

3 ETFs to Protect Against Interest Rate Risk

Editorial Staff — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 04:50:58 -0500

Investors' Bond Exodus Could Turn into a Stampede

Editorial Staff — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 04:48:21 -0500

ETFs Try to Outdo Money Market Funds

Editorial Staff — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 04:43:38 -0500

Rare Earth Rally a Dangerous Bubble to Avoid

Editorial Staff — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 02:21:08 -0500

Rare Earth ETF Soaring Again on Back of Molycorp

Editorial Staff — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 02:13:55 -0500

Payouts in Doubt at Some Dividend-Focused ETFs

Editorial Staff — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 01:57:29 -0500

Report: Best-in-Class ETFs in Materials Sector

Editorial Staff — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 01:55:40 -0500

Van Eck: New Commodity ETF Bigger, Broader, Better

Editorial Staff — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 01:53:31 -0500

Shot/Chaser: this Morning's WSJ Article on the Oil Drilling Ban

Chip Hanlon — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 01:42:06 -0500

In this Irishman's parlance, here's the shot... the WSJ article that's making the rounds today:
Drilling is Stalled Even After Ban is Lifted
An excerpt:

2011 Goals

Derek Hernquist — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 01:31:25 -0500

Besides the usual “eat better”, “make more time for family”, “get more organized” resolutions that we all promise each year, I have but 2 goals. Improve my process, and improve the execution of my process. That’s not 2011 stuff, that’s everyday stuff. Thought I’d share my guiding principles of market speculation, so I can hold myself more accountable. In no particular order, my approach to managing money is shaped by the following:

Chart of the Week: The Year in Economic Data (2010)

Bill Luby — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 12:40:22 -0500

One of the blog’s surprise hits in 2010 was a series of charts I began which started out with the unwieldy title of Trends in Economic Data Relative to Expectations.

I have utilized this chart format to track the performance of key economic data releases relative to consensus expectations.

The data are sorted into five groups and include economic reports such as the ones highlighted below:

2010 Challenges Met; S&P 500 1,256 Now Cleared

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 12:36:19 -0500

Looking at full-year 2010 returns in hind sight, it may appear as if 2010 was an easy year to make money. Those who are honest with themselves can recall the incessant chatter of gloom and doom and high levels of fear following the May 2010 ‘flash crash’ and sovereign debt problems in Europe. After publishing Stocks May Surprise By Year-End on July 2nd, we got a few less-than-friendly emails questioning our sanity.

Eleven Rapid Fire Ideas for 2011

Michael Johnston — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 12:35:48 -0500

Last week saw the end of a year that was relatively kind to investor portfolios, as most major asset classes managed to post strong results in 2010. As the calendars flip to 2011, the outlook remains uncertain; lingering obstacles in the form of high unemployment and bloated debt loads certainly pose problems, but rapidly-expanding emerging markets and resurgent corporate earnings provide reason to be optimistic.

List of 49 ETF Closures for 2010

Ron Rowland — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 12:18:43 -0500

U.S. exchange traded product delistings and closures totaled 49 in 2010, consisting entirely of ETFs (no ETNs). The lifetime tally now stands at 173 (160 ETFs and 13 ETNs). The 49 closures represent a 12.5% drop from 2009 and mark the second straight year the quantity has declined.

2011: Housing, Jobs, Stocks, Commodities and Dollar

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 12:08:26 -0500

As the global economy shows continued signs of a sustainable economic recovery, there are two notable areas lagging behind; employment and housing in the United States. Continued trends in these areas could lead to renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar, which in turn could help boost stock and commodity prices. From a December 26th Bloomberg article:

2010 Intermarket Relations Charts with S&P 500

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 11:49:42 -0500

As promised, I wanted to follow-up the prior “Market Performance in 2010” post with a few charts of the major cross-markets and the developing relationship with the S&P 500.

In looking at the reference charts, pay close attention first to the type of relationship – positive or negative – and the periods of time (highlighted) where the traditional relationship broke-down temporarily – and then resumed its normal course.

Ten Things to Watch in 2011

John Nyaradi — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 11:38:11 -0500

As we stand at the dawn of a New Year, everybody would like to have a crystal ball so we can know what’s coming next.

Of course, sadly, no one has such a crystal ball, and so any predictions or prognostications you read at this time of year are nothing more than educated guesses or hopeful stabs in the dark.

However, looking into the fog shrouded months lying just ahead, we can see some clear themes already emerging. Here are ten things to watch for in 2011:

Three Sectors Ready to Lead 2011

Jim Farrish — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 12:09:45 -0500

The predictions are in and today begins the 2011 market year. I have read everything from the markets crashing to a 50% gain in equities this year. As with every year only time will tell and the key is to take what the market gives and be disciplined enough to capture the move up or down. The one word that summarizes all the discussions is optimism. In fact, that is the one word I would use to describe the year, optimism. The outlook is optimistic the economy will improve, jobs will grow and the overall global economic picture will be healthy.

Frontrunning: January 3rd

Tyler Durden — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 08:42:53 -0500

What a Year, What a Decade

Jim Picerno — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 08:41:58 -0500

2010 S&P Intermarket Relationship Charts

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 08:40:57 -0500

As promised, I wanted to follow-up the prior “Market Performance in 2010” post with a few charts of the major cross-markets and the developing relationship with the S&P 500.

In looking at the reference charts, pay close attention first to the type of relationship – positive or negative – and the periods of time (highlighted) where the traditional relationship broke-down temporarily – and then resumed its normal course.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Less Risk, More Reward

Jeff Miller — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 08:38:18 -0500

The new investment year starts with a backdrop of lower financial stress, better economic prospects, but two large and nagging concerns. Housing is a continuing drag. Employment is improving, but far too slowly.

Stock prices have been stronger despite these headwinds, but it is important to watch the weekly data. In this series I try to encourage a focus on data rather than anecdotes.

Using QE to Your Advantage

Rob Hanna — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 08:28:31 -0500
This post will be the third in the series that looks at using quantifiable edges to your advantage. Today I will discuss considerations I use that help determine whether a study is compelling and whether I want to include that study in my analysis. I will be discussing nine things to consider. I have listed them all below.

1) Average Trade
2) Percent Profitable
3) Profit factor
4) Win / loss ratio
5) Equity Curve
6) Timing of instances
7) Average and max runup and drawdowns for the trades
8) Robustness across parameters

TLT & SHY – ETFR’s View

Bob Barnes — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 08:24:48 -0500

Complete List of New 2010 ETFs

Michael Johnston — Fri, 31 Dec 2010 12:13:22 -0500

2010 Multi-Market Performance Returns

Corey Rosenbloom — Fri, 31 Dec 2010 12:09:11 -0500

Courtesy FinViz.com, I wanted to share the 2010 multiple market performance – futures contract returns – for 2010. You might be surprised which markets rose the most in the year.

Here’s the chart with one day left to close out 2010:

Forex Seasonality: How Will the Dollar Perform in January?

Kathy Lien — Fri, 31 Dec 2010 12:01:41 -0500

With New Years Eve looming, it has been a quiet morning in the currency markets. No major U.S. or European economic reports were scheduled for release today, leaving most traders focused on ironing out their New Year plans than trading. As we turn the calendar to January 2010, we want to take this opportunity to talk about one of our favorite topics - seasonality.

Gold Wraps Up Year with Record Gains

Brad Zigler — Fri, 31 Dec 2010 11:54:36 -0500

Gold won the last weekly round of our 2010 Scorecards with record-setting highs vs. the euro and pound sterling. Bullion notched a 2.2 percent gain against British paper while rising 1.5 percent opposite the European common currency. The Swiss franc gave up a scant 0.3 percent to gold this week, but the standout was the yen which appreciated 0.4 percent against the metal.

For the week ending Thursday, the key dollar-denominated inflation markers included:

In 2010 I Learn That...

Bill Luby — Fri, 31 Dec 2010 11:48:27 -0500

Josh Brown of The Reformed Broker has an excellent post up today, In 2010 I Learned That..., in which he aggregates a wide variety of market perspectives from his broad network. The results have a large dollop of market wisdom, yet are spiced with the type of humor and satire that is a hallmark of Josh's efforts.

Wall Street's Push to Bring Back the Public

Clif Droke — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 06:52:38 -0500

Investors have been liquidating bonds in the last few weeks which begs the question why. Are investors liquidating bonds in order to move cash back into stocks and other risk assets? Or is that money going under the mattress? On that score a recent news article provides a most interesting backdrop to this question.

2010 Quietly Slips Away

John Nyaradi — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 06:45:39 -0500

As expected, this holiday week has been quiet as 2010 quietly slips away.

Today’s news was largely positive with initial unemployment claims dropping below 400,000, the lowest level since mid-summer, 2008.

Pending home sales in the United States rose 3.5% in November, however remain 5% below year ago levels. Home prices, as we discussed earlier in the week, fell in October and so a double dip in housing remains a real possibility, especially with the recent rise in interest rates.

Six Popular ETFs to Dump Today

Ron Rowland — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 06:00:21 -0500

Happy Holidays! Many people have the last day of the year off, but not stock and ETF traders. Since 2011 New Year’s Day falls on a Saturday, the NYSE and other exchanges are open for a full day.

This is good news in one way: You have an extra trading session to get rid of some clutter in your portfolio and start the New Year fresh. Today I’m going to name six potential ETF sell candidates. You may be surprised at some of the names below. Read on …

ETF to Dump #1: SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

Update: 2011 Outlook for Commodities Remains Positive

Chris Ciovacco — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 06:00:11 -0500

Given a basket of commodities, as measured by the CRB Index, is up a healthy 9.72% this month, it may be a good time to revisit the longer-term outlook. While the daily chart of the CRB is showing some signs of short-term fatigue, the outlook for the next three-to-six months still appears to be encouraging.

On December 8th, with the CRB Index trading at 315.62, we published the following chart and comments in Outlook for Commodities Remains Positive:

Three Reasons That Bond ETFs Bashers May Want to Recalibrate

Gary Gordon — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 06:00:08 -0500

One of my asset management clients recently asked me about the increasingly pessimistic bond bashing in the media. He wrote, “I understand that investors should diversify. But if bonds look like a terrible investment to the experts, why should people put their money in them?”

A Holiday Sampler of Indicators

Brad Zigler — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 02:35:36 -0500

Well, there are as many indicators as there are analysts, I reckon, but here are a few—in no particular order of importance—that I often use as adjuncts:

EWZ Bounces Back, UUP Slides

Michael Johnston — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 01:17:23 -0500

Wednesday was yet another slow day on Wall Street, with below average trading volumes and a lack of meaningful data releases or earnings report failing to give stocks much direction. Major U.S. indexes managed to squeeze out modest gains, as the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ all finished the mid-week session session slightly higher. As stocks tacked on gains to an impressive 2010 performance, commodity markets were mixed. Gold climbed higher once again, while oil dipped slightly.

3 ETFs to Play the AIG Comeback

Editorial Staff — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 12:41:16 -0500

Puts Surge in Metals and Miners ETF

Editorial Staff — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 12:39:58 -0500

When Goals Impede Progress

Jeff White — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 12:24:26 -0500

Like it or not, it’s that time of year where goals enter the picture again. This is of course a time for family, gifts and bowl games, but it’s also a time when each of us are compelled to take a look back and a look forward.

Reaching the finish line at the end of the year leads us to consider how things went, and most all of us know whether we exceeded or fell short of the goals we set a year ago. In turn, we evaluate where we are and take a good hard look at where we want to be a year from now.

Two Latin American ETFs Destined to Shine

Kevin Grewal — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 12:10:50 -0500

When SPY Closes Near the Bottom of its Range but Still Positive

Rob Hanna — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 12:08:15 -0500

Yesterday's late selloff was something that many chart readers might view as ugly on a chart. My research has shown quite the opposite. When SPY has closed near the bottom end of its range but still positive on the day that has generally been a good thing. Below is a simple study from last night's Subscriber Letter that exemplifies this.

Ten New Years' Resolutions for ETF Investors

Michael Johnston — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 11:58:12 -0500

With 2011 just around the corner, tis the season for pledges to better everything from health to wealth to happiness in the coming year. Below, we offer up ten New Years’ Resolutions for ETF investors looking to cut expenses, round out their portfolios, and maximize returns in 201:

10. Slim Down Your Expense Ratios

A Year-End Dip in Jobless Claims. Can We Believe It?

Jim Picerno — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 11:48:10 -0500

The year’s economic news is ending on a high note, or at least a relatively encouraging note. Initial jobless claims declined by a hefty 34,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted total of 388,000. That’s the first reading under 400,000 since the summer of 2008. Is it real? Maybe, although the timing raises some doubts.

Frontrunning: December 30th

Tyler Durden — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 08:27:08 -0500

Peak Oil & Crude Wagers

Jim Picerno — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 08:25:47 -0500

Peak oil is back in the news, mostly for its apparent failure. The story starts with a five-year-old wager.

VIX Futures Brokers

Bill Luby — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 08:23:30 -0500

In light of my comments about MB Trading yesterday, a reader was quick to point out that MB Trading does not offer VIX futures.

For those who may be interested, the CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE) maintains a current list of VIX futures brokers which I have reproduced below:

Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs)

TLT & PDQ Dashboard

Bob Barnes — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 08:19:25 -0500

Outlook 2011: Four Forecasts For Active ETFs

Shishir Nigam — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 07:04:48 -0500

The big question that the ETF industry faces in 2011 is where does the next trillion come from? The questions surrounding the Active ETF space in particular revolve more around when these products will really take off and attract significant investor assets.

Will 2011 Be Favorable To The Equal Weight Technology ETF (RYT)?

Gary Gordon — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 07:03:06 -0500

In truth, I originally anticipated that we’d see some “sell-the-news” profit-taking in late January… somewhere in the midst of the corporate earnings barrage. I did not think that I’d be cautioning on the bull market’s near-term viability here in late December.

Early Champagne Whine

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 06:52:23 -0500

Mild short signals be d@mned, intraday internals are strongly aligned to the upside as the SPY authoritatively takes out $126. I can hear those New Year’s bubbles… glad I’ve kept it light.

Three Questions to Ask in Finding Your Timeframe

Derek Hernquist — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 02:50:22 -0500

After sharing my thoughts for the past year, the parallels between writing and trading have become clear. I do this to provoke thought in myself and hopefully some readers, and build a body of work for easy review…by myself or a prospective client. I’m not an “elevator pitch” guy, don’t have that witty reply when I first meet someone. Likewise, my trading efforts are heavy on preparation…I can shoot from the hip in the markets but have learned I execute better with a blueprint.

Fueled by Asia, Global ETF Market May Grow30% in 2011

Editorial Staff — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 01:26:25 -0500

Dial Up These ETFs for Smart Phone Exposure

Editorial Staff — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 01:17:12 -0500

Survey: Most Investors Still Baffled by ETFs

Editorial Staff — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 01:14:31 -0500

Oil Market Firming Ahead of Inventory Reports

Brad Zigler — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 01:09:06 -0500

The Christmas holiday has pushed back the release of the U.S. Energy Department’s weekly oil and fuel inventory report to Thursday. Traders, however, are pushing domestic crude prices back above the $91-a-barrel level in anticipation of a bullish industry report on crude oil supplies.

After closing the Tuesday floor session at $91.49, the February delivery of West Texas Intermediate crude dipped to $90.80 in overnight trading, but bounced back as the time for this morning’s opening bell approached.

Obama, Bush and the Surprising Truth about Gas Prices

Chip Hanlon — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 12:43:10 -0500

Did you know that retail gas prices fell by 9% in real terms under George W. Bush? Pretty darned surprising, but true.

Gold (GLD) and the Rising 50-Day EMA Support

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 12:06:25 -0500

I’m a big fan of monitoring price – particularly in a trending environment – with respective 20 and 50 day exponential moving averages (EMAs).

Recently, gold (and GLD) have shown a good example of how EMAs serve as good reference points for expected/potential support in the context of a rising bullish trend.

Let’s take a look at the current charts of Gold and GLD to see this example in motion.

Key Macro Trends Over the Past Year

Jim Picerno — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 12:01:18 -0500

The year is coming to a close, which inspires looking at recent history for some perspective on the year ahead. The past is hardly a flawless window into the future, but it's a good place to start for considering the possibilities for 2011. The following charts, courtesy of the economics database at the St. Louis Fed, summarize some of the key macro trends over the past year.

What's in Store for the U.S. Dollar in 2011?

Kathy Lien — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 11:41:39 -0500

Frontrunning: December 29th

Tyler Durden — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 08:54:25 -0500

Daily Highlights: 12.29.2010

Tyler Durden — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 08:53:36 -0500

The Insight Awards: Exposing Scams

Jeff Miller — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 08:52:35 -0500

As I reviewed the events of 2010, I noticed that many of the most helpful stories of the year did not seem to attract much notice. I decided to give an "Insight Award" to bloggers who provided the most help to individual investors.

I am starting with an important topic: Avoiding Scams.

MB Trading Actively Screening New Customers?

Bill Luby — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 08:49:39 -0500

I do my best to maintain accounts with a wide variety of brokers, particularly with those who are partial to options traders, in an effort to get a sense of how various tools and platforms are evolving at the broker level, keep up to date on educational offerings, etc.

TLT 3 Day Tripper

Bob Barnes — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 08:46:46 -0500

How To Interpret Market Forecasts

David Grandey — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 07:07:36 -0500

Forecasts Forecasts Forecasts

Everyone is coming out with forecasts.

Breadth/Fed Stimulus Encouraging to Bulls

Chris Ciovacco — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 07:04:02 -0500

The disappointing housing news of December 28, 2010 gives the Fed more cover to complete the full allotment of QE2 bond purchases, which in turn should help boost weak dollar assets like gold, silver, and copper. From a Bloomberg story:

ETF News Update: Bad News Day

John Nyaradi — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 07:00:37 -0500

As we head into the closing days of the year, bad news came at us from all corners of the world today.

At home, the Case/Shiller Home Price Index came in with its fourth monthly decline in a row, dropping -0.8% on an annual basis in October and -1.3% on a monthly basis. 18 out of the 20 cities included in the report showed declines, with six making new lows since the housing collapse began more than three years ago. This is truly a miserable report that came in below expectations and demonstrates the ongoing weakness in this all important sector.

Hungary ETFs Face Uphill Battle

Gary Gordon — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 04:12:15 -0500

In truth, I originally anticipated that we’d see some “sell-the-news” profit-taking in late January… somewhere in the midst of the corporate earnings barrage. I did not think that I’d be cautioning on the bull market’s near-term viability here in late December.

Year-End Financial Checklist

Dock David Treece — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 03:10:43 -0500

They say failure to plan is planning for failure. While many rely on a financial plan to outline their long term goals and strategies, each year it's a good idea to take a little time to reassess what progress has been made and think further about long-term goals, as well as plans for achieving those goals.

Obviously we all have different financial needs and varying opinions on strategies for achieving our goals. There are many different ways to manage money, so while results are important, much more significant is what system is a comfortable fit for the client.

Sideways Trade as Internals Repair

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 01:49:09 -0500

Gold's Relatives: Mining Stocks

Brad Zigler — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 01:46:04 -0500

In spite of the winter holidays, some people seem to be actually reading the investment blogs. Evidence of that came in the form of reactions to yesterday’s column on the relative strength of agribusiness stocks to agricultural futures.

Ten Worst Performing ETFs of 2010

Michael Johnston — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 12:57:42 -0500

In general, 2010 has been a pretty solid year for most portfolios. Despite lingering concerns about unemployment and mounting debt burdens, most global equity markets have moved higher on the year. Commodity markets have been red hot, with prices of many natural resources climbing to new highs thanks to strong demand from emerging markets and a shaky dollar. And while bonds have shown exceptional volatility during the last 12 months, many fixed income securities have managed to deliver at least modest gains as well.

Inflation Update: TMS (True Money) Status

Steve Saville — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 12:31:24 -0500

Michael Pollaro's blog is the best place on the Web to keep in touch with what's happening to the money supply.

Job & Inflation: The Critical Variables in the Fed's Exit Strategy

Jim Picerno — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 11:50:49 -0500

Inflation is still low and so the Fed is in no rush to raise interest rates. The market is expecting no less. Fed fund futures expiring next November are priced for only a slight rise in Fed funds—roughly 38 basis points vs. the current target rate of zero to 25 basis points. Cheap money won't last forever, but almost no one thinks higher rates are imminent. Still, it's not too soon to consider the future, including the possible triggers that launch the Fed's exit strategy.

Weaker U.S. Data Triggers Risk Aversion in Forex

Kathy Lien — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 11:41:23 -0500

A Look at the Most Interesting Active ETFs in the 2011 Pipeline

Editorial Staff — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 11:29:11 -0500

Why Investors are Fleeing Bond ETFs in Droves

Editorial Staff — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 11:24:26 -0500

Gold ETF Volume Soars in India, but Still Tiny Compared to Physical Imports

Editorial Staff — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 11:22:03 -0500

VXX One Day Haul: $327 MM, a Gain of Nearly 25%

Editorial Staff — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 11:16:44 -0500

Frontrunning: December 28th

Tyler Durden — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 08:45:20 -0500

TLT Test Fest

Bob Barnes — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 08:40:39 -0500

EUR/USD Tests Support

Greg Michalowski — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 08:35:39 -0500

The EURUSD had a ceiling at the 1.3201 level until earlier today. When the price broke above that level in the first few hours of the trading today, the price scooted quickly higher.

China Rate Hike Buoys Asia's ETFs, Rocks Latin America's

Editorial Staff — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 07:11:07 -0500

Asia ETFs Jump, Latin America ETFs Slump on China Rate Hike

Gary Gordon — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 06:28:38 -0500

The biggest news over the weekend had been China’s surprise Christmas-day decision to hike its interest rates. China is looking to slow down price inflation. And, not surprisingly, some of the worst performing Country ETFs on 12/27/2010 were those with heavy exposure to the materials and energy segments.

Three Financial ETFs to Benefit from Interest Rate Jumps

Kevin Grewal — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 06:27:33 -0500

Since the beginning of the month, interest rates have been on the rise pushing yields on 10-year Treasurys over 3.5%, their highest level in seven months, boosting the appeal of the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), the iShares Dow Jones US Regional Banks Index Fund (IAT) and the KBW Bank ETF (KBE).

USD: The Impact of Snowstorms

Kathy Lien — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 05:48:56 -0500

Divergences and Breakout Trading Lessons in GS

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 04:50:46 -0500

Goldman Sachs has been a wild ride for both investors and traders this year, despite being a leading financial company.

As per usual practice, the chart gives us excellent examples of trading tactics we can use as a reference for the future.

Let’s take a look specifically at Two Divergences and the resulting Two Breakouts in Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) shares and the lessons we can learn from them.

With Ags, It's All Relative

Brad Zigler — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 03:25:10 -0500

You’d think that after snagging an 18.6 percent gain for the year, investors in the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) be able to count their winnings and look forward to the new year with the hope that their good fortune continues.

MOO tracks an index of 46 global businesses involved in the production of agricultural goods and equipment.

Egg Nog Sleep Off

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 02:10:22 -0500

The Chinese rate hike inspired gap lower has made a valiant attempt to fill on good accumulated Tick. However, other internals are less rosy looking and the VIX is plus 9%. Looks like buying vol was a good trick after all. All that said, volume is at extreme lows, so it’s difficult to attach too much meaning to this move.

A Quiet Week Ahead

John Nyaradi — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 12:35:03 -0500

As we approach the end of 2010, I would like to wish you and your family a very Happy Holiday and healthy, happy and prosperous New Year. It has beeen my honor and privilege to serve you this year and I look forward to continuing our work together as we face the challenges and opportunities of 2011.

This will be a shorter than usual letter due to these shorter than usual business weeks but watch for a special New Year’s edition next Sunday as we look ahead to the issues and opportunities of the coming year.

Looking Deeper Inside S&P 500 Breadth into Year End

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 11:27:00 -0500

Traders frequently study market internals – including breadth – to peek under the hood of a price movement or trend to see if internals are confirming the move (suggesting continuation) or disconfirming the move (suggesting retracement or reversal).

Let’s take a look at what S&P 500 specific Internals – breadth – have taught us about the recent end-of-year rally, and where they stand as we finish up 2010.

Counting Down the Best New ETFs of 2010

Michael Johnston — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 12:12:25 -0500

With 2011 just around the corner, the curtain is closing on yet another year of tremendous expansion in the ETF industry. With inflows for the year at close to $100 billion, total ETF assets will recently eclipsed the $1 trillion mark for the first time. From a product development standpoint, 2010 was a record year; more than 200 new ETFs hit the market, and the pipeline has continued to fill with new ideas.

Chart of the Week: U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices

Bill Luby — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 11:57:42 -0500

As more and more data points begin to suggest that the green shoots of months past are finally showing signs of developing, concerns about supply and demand in the energy space are starting to heat up again.

In the past week, the average retail price of gasoline in the United States shot up to $2.98 per gallon (and $3.29 per gallon in my home town of San Francisco, but who’s counting?) to a post-crisis high.

Why Forex Traders Shrugged Off Chinese Rate Hike

Kathy Lien — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 11:44:49 -0500

The Great Divergence

Jim Picerno — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 11:44:01 -0500

Faster economic growth in emerging markets compared with mature countries has been celebrated as a rare bright spot in the global economy in recent years. Without the robust expansion rates of China, India and other emerging nations, the fallout from the Great Recession surely would have been deeper and linger longer.

Counting Down the Year's Top 10 New ETFs

Editorial Staff — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 11:07:49 -0500

5 ETFs to Watch Before New Year's

Editorial Staff — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 11:05:45 -0500

The Worst ETFs of 2010

Editorial Staff — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 11:04:21 -0500

Santa Claus Rally in Full Effect

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 09:46:29 -0500
The Santa Claus rally is in full effect and it looks like we are set to finish 2010 on a high note.
Bulls continue to control price action as we approach the final week of trading for the year.

Last week, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite confirmed a new bull market weekly closing high. (Image:mpie on Flickr)

We can see how the bulls continue to control the trend by looking at an intraday chart of last week's price action.

EUR/USD Awaits Break Inside Goal Posts

Greg Michalowski — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 09:41:36 -0500

Weighing the Week Ahead: Sentiment Indicators

Jeff Miller — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 09:38:56 -0500

Here is the question of the week:

If everyone else is bullish, should you be bearish?

and a corollary -- How do you know?

Most traders take this as an article of faith. Everyone wants to be a contrarian. We all know that a "crowded trade" can easily go wrong as everyone else tries to get out.

Quantifiable Edges Big Time Swing System Overview Page Updated

Rob Hanna — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 09:38:01 -0500

In Search of Linearity

Bob Barnes — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 08:37:42 -0500

Frontrunning: December 27th

Tyler Durden — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 08:35:46 -0500

Santa Claus Came This Year

Jerry Slusiewicz — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 02:48:15 -0500

There is no doubt that Santa Claus arrived on Wall Street this year! With the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite up 14 of the last 17 trading days, the Santa Claus rally posted a return of over 6% on both indices. Not a bad return from the bearded one. But who really is Santa Claus? Is he the historical figure that we all heard about? Or is the bearded one a new Santa, one bringing billions of dollars of cash to Wall Street firms daily, from the Federal Reserve Bank?

There's Inflation, Then There's Inflation

Brad Zigler — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 02:23:58 -0500

The Federal Reserve's got itself in a real bind. Commodity prices have been on a tear lately. The Thomson-Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index—a futures benchmark 19 contracts wide—has shot up 3.4 percent in the past week alone, fueled by a now-buoyant energy sector and overheated soft commodities.
In its hawkish days, the Fed would normally consider snugging rates up to cool things down a bit. But not now. The Fed dare not for fear of choking off a fragile and nascent recovery.

State Street ETFs Swap Indexes: Dow Jones Out, S&P In

Michael Johnston — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 02:12:00 -0500

State Street has made a few minor changes to its ETF lineup, ditching Dow Jones indexes in favor of benchmarks maintained by Standard & Poor’s for its broad-based domestic equity funds. Historically, the SPDR ETFs offering exposure to U.S. stock markets had been a bit of a hodgepodge, with the ultra-popular SPY and MDY linked to S&P indexes (the S&P 500 and S&P MidCap 400, respectively), and Dow Jones indexes filling out the rest of the cap/style matrix. Effective last week, the following changes went into effect:

Retailers are Rocking

Chip Hanlon — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 01:02:24 -0500

From this Huffington Post report on retail sales:
Holiday shoppers are racing to the end of the season at a more feverish pace this year, with retail revenue up 5.5 percent during the last weekend before Christmas.
The figure, released by ShopperTrak on Wednesday, is a drastic improvement from the same weekend last year, when revenue dropped 6.2 percent because a big East Coast snowstorm closed malls and kept shoppers at home.

Not Time to "Prevent" Opportunity

Derek Hernquist — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 12:51:45 -0500

This week, in particular, it feels like that last 30 seconds before halftime of a football game. One team(the bulls, in this case) has established momentum and imposed their will on the other team. A focused team may still spread the defense a little, but knows the dangers of 30 seconds on cruise control. They may even call time outs to give themselves a chance to block or return a punt.

ETF Winners and Losers From the Great Tax Compromise

Michael Johnston — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 12:02:08 -0500

Though the recent tax agreement between the Obama administration and Congressional Republicans was hailed as an historic compromise, there is no shortage of politicians and organizations-from both the left and the right-expressing frustrations with the accord. In addition to extending the Bush-era tax cuts for an additional two years, the deal signed into law last week introduces a 2% payroll tax cut for one year and prolongs the 99-week extended-unemployment benefits for another year.

VIX and the Week Before Christmas

Bill Luby — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 11:46:17 -0500

I guess I should not be surprised that a VIX of 15.45 - the lowest since July 2007 - has all manner of pundits scrambling to pull some sort of explanation out of a hat and weave it into their favorite bullish or bearish forecast for the markets.

2010: Not Bad For The Dollar

Brad Zigler — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 11:43:12 -0500

Traders and investors who believe the U.S. economy is in a death spiral shouldn't be in a rush to short the dollar. After all, better plays were there in 2010. Make that two better plays.

Has Spending and Income Hit the Ceiling?

Jim Picerno — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 11:40:36 -0500

U.S. Data: Few Signs of Strength or Weakness

Kathy Lien — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 11:34:11 -0500

ETFs for "Goldilocks Economists" vs. ETFs for Deficit Hawks and Inflation Fighters

Gary Gordon — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 06:50:53 -0500

Bonds were dramatically overbought throughout the summertime. Blame it on “Fed QE2-speak” or deflationary pressure or a herd-like fear of stocks. Nevertheless the 10-year yield of 2.3% bordered on insanity.

By the way, kudos to those who chose Intermediate Bond ETFs at the start of May, and then “went away” until the start of November. Investors who executed a seasonal trade of iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD), for instance, witnessed 8.0% gains over a 6-month stretch.

How Did Our Mid-Year Predictions For Active ETFs Pan Out?

Shishir Nigam — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 05:56:35 -0500

At the beginning of July 2010, we made four forecasts to anticipate and look out for during the remainder of 2010. As we come to the end of 2010, let’s look back at those four predictions we made back then to see how they panned out!

Mid-Year Prediction 1: Increase in mutual fund conversion plans

ETF Tax Efficiency Report Card

Michael Johnston — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 05:50:41 -0500

USD: Risk Appetite Hampered by Soft Data

Kathy Lien — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 05:47:37 -0500

Continuation Move on Lower Volume

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 04:11:33 -0500

U.S. Deep, Deep in the Red

Chip Hanlon — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 01:56:50 -0500

An interesting update about the nation's fiscal health:
The Financial Report of the United States, which applies corporate-style accrual accounting methods to Washington, showed the government's liabilities exceeded assets by $13.473 trillion. That compared with a $11.456 trillion gap a year earlier.
Unlike the normal measurement of government intake of receipts against cash outlays, accrual accounting measures costs such as interest on the debt and federal benefits payable when they are incurred, not when funds are actually disbursed.

Kranefuss: Active ETFs Are Next Chapter

Jim Slagle — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 12:40:50 -0500

Van Eck Files for Andes ETF

Jim Slagle — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 12:40:01 -0500

Big Oil Drawdown Triggers Price Hikes

Brad Zigler — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 12:29:28 -0500

Spot prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil rallied above the $90 level overnight as traders took to the American Petroleum Institute's estimate of a 5.8-million-barrel drawdown to heart. Street-side analysts weren't as bullish and had eyed a smaller decrease, ranging from 1.1 million to 3.4 million barrels.

Stock Market Sentiment Not a Barrier to Further Gains

Chris Ciovacco — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 12:21:34 -0500

There are currently several reasons to be concerned about the stock market, from debt problems in Europe to slowing technical momentum. However, if investor sentiment is currently at the top of your list of concerns, you may want to bump it down a few notches.

Simple Trading Lessons from NFLX Recent Doubling in Price

Corey Rosenbloom — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 12:11:11 -0500

Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) has been showing up frequently on many trading radars, and for good reason – the stock has doubled from $100 to $200 from August to December, and it did so within a stable uptrending structure that allowed for low-risk entries – either from a retracement standpoint or a breakout move – into the persistent uptrend.

Office Depot Taking Care of Technical Business

Jeff White — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 12:01:14 -0500

Office supplies aren't exciting, I'll give you that. Calendars, pens, paper, and chair mats do very little to entice us as investors like, say, a new technology.
But investing gains are never a bad thing, and here's an office supply stock on my radar that looks poised for a solid push higher if it can clear some overhead resistance.

Currencies Remain Weak After Disappointing US Data

Kathy Lien — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 11:42:39 -0500

Macro Surveillance: 12.22.2010

Jim Picerno — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 09:19:22 -0500

What IHS predicts for global economy in 2011
The U.S. recovery will pick up steam as the year progresses. In 2011, the U.S. economy is likely to be firing on more cylinders. Housing investment will begin to recover and the United States will enjoy export-led growth. Additional fiscal stimulus will add 0.6 percent to growth in 2011 and push the unemployment rate below 9 percent by year's end.
International Business Times, Dec. 22

When's the Best Time to Invest?

Jeff Miller — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 09:12:31 -0500

Here at "A Dash" I often try to stimulate objective thought by taking the reader outside of the normal market discussion. Sometimes when you see the point in a context where you do not already have an opinion, it is easier to bring the conclusion back to your investing.

Are you ready for some football?

EUR/USD Pop and Drop

Bob Barnes — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 09:10:29 -0500

'Twas 3 Nights Before Christmas (Updated)

Rob Hanna — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 09:08:53 -0500

Tuesday's close brought us to the next extremely strong seasonal period. The last 2 years I have shown the "Twas 3 Nights Before Christmas" study. I've have updated it again below.

Expiring Monthly: December Issue Recap

Bill Luby — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 09:02:39 -0500

A reminder that the December issue of Expiring Monthly: The Option Traders Journal was published yesterday and is available for subscribers to download.

Frontrunning: December 22nd

Tyler Durden — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 08:50:15 -0500

USD: Turning Our Focus to the U.S.

Kathy Lien — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 06:16:24 -0500

A Busy Day Saving the World

John Nyaradi — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 06:02:20 -0500

The Federal Reserve had a busy day saving the world today as they bought more than $9 Billion of assets in their ongoing Permanent Open Market Operations and extended the temporary, emergency dollar swap lines with the European Cental Bank, Japan, Switzerland, Canada and the Britain.

Low Volume Trend Day

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 05:04:36 -0500

Internals aligned for a positive trend trade very early in the day for what could end up being highs for the year. Volume is extremely low, as one might expect during holiday trade.

Commodities Wrap: No Coal in the Commodity Stocking

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 05:01:18 -0500

China Decides How High Reflation Trade ETFs Will Climb

Gary Gordon — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 03:33:37 -0500

How Kass Could be Right

Chip Hanlon — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 02:20:11 -0500

After the rather noteworthy prediction about gold by Doug Kass last night on CNBC, a lot of folks are taking sides on the issue of whether Doug Kass is worth listening to. I think he's interesting, so my vote is 'yes.'
That said, I didn't take his prediction as being as bearish on gold as some have (gold bugs have, of course, gone bananas over his remarks). All he really said is that A) gold could be volatile and B) that it could surprise and actually deliver negative performance next year.
Maybe.

A Learned Skill

Ray Barros — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 02:10:29 -0500

“I don’t learn that way! Just tell me and I’ll remember it!!”

Clearly I was pushing my nephew, Ari, way past his comfort zone. He was no longer hearing my words but instead his whole focus was on the discomfort he was feeling.

This was last Saturday - during session 4 of the trading course I am giving.

Rather than give in, I tried a NLP Pattern Interrupt, and then held a mirror for him to face:

The Next Motor City

Dock David Treece — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 02:06:15 -0500

Many of the issues currently causing worry among Americans, particularly among the working class, are based on several assumptions. Fortunately, many of these assumptions are flawed.

Of these worries, two stand out: First, that the national debt is growing too large and too fast, and that it will cause the US to go bust. Second, that employment in this country has undergone a substantial shift and that we must adjust to the "new normal."

Korea, Ireland and Quiet on the Western Front

John Nyaradi — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 02:05:50 -0500

Sabres were rattling on the Korean Penninsula today while Europe’s troubles percolated on the back burner and U.S. markets meandered in lighter than average pre-Christmas volume.

South Korea conducted its drills in spite of dire North Korean warnings but the ripples of the conflict spread across the region as the Shanghai Composite (SSEC) dropped -1.4%, bringing its decline from early November perilously close to the -10% marker for an official “correction.”

Gold No Longer Leading The Parade

Brad Zigler — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 01:53:09 -0500

The leading edge of the commodity bull market was, for a long time, the price of gold. Note the word was. Now, I'm not saying bullion's story has been written for the decade, but clearly gold's been overtaken in the Great Commodity Race.
Witness the ratio of gold's price to that of the Thomson-Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, a benchmark that originally dates back to 1957 when it was launched as the Commodity Research Bureau Index.

More Proof Asian ETF Market is Expanding Rapidly

Jim Slagle — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 01:26:31 -0500

Developed Market ETFs Tap Into Energy Industry

Jim Slagle — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 01:22:40 -0500

11 Commodities ETFs To Watch In The New Year

Jim Slagle — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 01:21:20 -0500

9 SPDRs ETFs Get New Indexes

Jim Slagle — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 01:20:17 -0500

Oui Oui? No No, France ETF the Next European Domino

Jim Slagle — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 01:19:26 -0500

The Next Trillion? ETFs In 401(k)s

Jim Slagle — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 01:18:24 -0500

Option Investors Still Bearish on Wells Fargo

Steve Claussen — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 01:15:31 -0500

Kass Predicts a 25% Drop In Gold, Here Is How His Other Recent Forecasts Have Fared

Tyler Durden — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 01:13:02 -0500

Year in Review: One Big Positive Development and Three Hurdles for Active ETFs

Shishir Nigam — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 11:57:05 -0500

In 2010, actively-managed ETFs in North America have generated a lot of buzz, investor interest as well as interest from the manufacturers of financial products. At the end of 2009, Active ETFs were still being seen as more of an experiment by some fund managers, trying to explore a new niche in the ETF landscape. That perception is starting to change, primarily because of growing issuer interest.

The Positive Development: Continuing Issuer Interest

AD: Is Data Good Enough for BoC?

Kathy Lien — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 11:39:57 -0500

Frontrunning: December 21st

Tyler Durden — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 09:16:49 -0500

The Trend vs. The New Normal

Jim Picerno — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 08:35:28 -0500

The third and final estimate for third-quarter U.S. GDP that's scheduled for release later today is expected to report a rise of 2.7%, economists predict, according to the consensus forecast via Briefing.com. If accurate, the gain represents a slight improvement over the previously reported 2.5% increase. That's still modest, but the trend at least looks friendly.

EUR/USD Straddle Patience Pays Off

Bob Barnes — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 08:33:37 -0500

Bill Gross Emulates the Fed By Purchasing Bond ETFs

Gary Gordon — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 07:02:01 -0500

Quantitative easing has meant a lot of things to a lot of people. For some, the Federal Reserve’s decision to purchase U.S. treasury bonds with electronically-created dollars saved the world from total financial collapse. For others, “QE1″ may have stimulated the environment for businesses and banks to operate on short-term credit again. Still others view “QE1″ and “QE2″ as little more than inflation-creating, dollar devaluing schemes with dire long-term consequences.

Why a Forex Breakout is Unlikely

Kathy Lien — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 06:20:22 -0500

S&P Closes Green Even As S&P (And Nasdaq) Cumulative TICK Closes Well Into The Red

Tyler Durden — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 05:32:11 -0500

Commodities Wrap: When Will It End?

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 05:23:19 -0500

Pork Blows

Chip Hanlon — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 05:18:52 -0500

...or, said another way, there's a bubble forming in wind subsidies. That's how the WSJ put it this morning:
The Wind Subsidy Bubble
An excerpt:
Ethanol isn't the only heavily subsidized energy source that won a multibillion dollar jackpot in last week's tax deal. The other big winner was the wind industry, which received a one year extension of a $3 billion grant program for renewable energy projects.

Higher High, Higher Low?

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 03:27:45 -0500

Markets opened higher in spite of a bearish overseas trade Sunday night. After a quick trip back down to the pivot, the SPY is now re-challenging its five-day moving average (magenta dashed line). Volume, not surprisingly, is extremely low.

Year-End Precious Metal Insurance Sale

Brad Zigler — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 03:07:01 -0500

Holiday bargains abound now. Relatively speaking, of course. Take the price of gold and silver as examples. Price-conscious bullion buyers who waited a week for a sale were recently able to save $20/ounce for the shiny yellow stuff.

Must-Know Rules on Withdrawing Money From Retirement Funds

Jim Slagle — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 01:46:46 -0500

Updated End of Year Gann Squares Levels on the S&P 500

Corey Rosenbloom — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 01:42:08 -0500

The S&P 500 has moved up into a short-term Gann Squares inflection level – similar to a Fibonacci level – which is worth considering as we move into the final push of 2010.

Let’s take a look at the updated Gann Squares Chart of the S&P 500 to see what the current and future levels are, and what they mean.

Five Ways to Play Internet ETFs

Michael Johnston — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 01:27:40 -0500

Transportation ETF Likely to Keep Rolling

Kevin Grewal — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 01:26:22 -0500

Transportation giant FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) recently raised its full-year forecasts despite a drop in profits and an increase in revenues in the second quarter, providing positive price support to the iShares Dow Jones Transportation ETF (NYSE: IYT).

ETFs and ETPs Pass $1 Trillion Mark

Kevin Grewal — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 01:16:25 -0500

According to a study conducted by BlackRock, assets in US listed ETFs and exchange traded products surpassed $1 trillion for the first time on Thursday.

Global X Files for New Oil ETF, and FocusShares Returns

Jim Slagle — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 01:10:48 -0500

Why the British Pound ETF Could Soar in 2011

Jim Slagle — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 01:06:32 -0500

Muni Bond ETFs? Not So Fast

Jim Slagle — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 01:02:52 -0500

Barclays To Unveil New CMBS Index

Jim Slagle — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 12:50:02 -0500

Analyst Sees ETF ‘Tug Of War’ Between Hedge Funds & Smaller Investors

Jim Slagle — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 12:48:27 -0500

Why Gold Is Up 420%: Investors Swallowed the SPDR Gold Trust

Jim Slagle — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 12:46:18 -0500

Chinese Banks Insolvent? Avoid These ETFs

Jim Slagle — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 12:45:30 -0500

Hopscotch Around the Markets

Bob Lang — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 12:22:16 -0500

Dollar's Rally Still Concerning for Stocks and Commodities

Chris Ciovacco — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 12:17:40 -0500

As we head into the final two trading weeks of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index has completed two of the three steps typically associated with a change in trend: (1) the black trendline was broken, and (2) a higher low has been made. The third step would be to make a higher high via a daily close above 81.19.

Rudolph Hits the Hindenburg

John Nyaradi — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 11:54:32 -0500

Rudolph was well into bringing the “Santa Rally” to town when this week he suddenly ran into the ominous sounding “Hindenburg Omen.” Beyond that, economic news was mostly positive while markets remain overbought, breadth is dwindling and upward momentum has stalled heading into the lightly traded Christmas week.

Looking at My Screens

Chart of the Week: Historical Volatility Plummets in Seasonal Swoon

Bill Luby — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 11:51:39 -0500

Markets May Fail, But That's (Thankfully) the Exception

Jim Picerno — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 11:41:58 -0500

Paul Krugman dispatches a new broadside against free market theory today in his New York Times column. The attack is anything but subtle. "Free-market fundamentalists have been wrong about everything…" Everything? Call me crazy, but I can think of one or two things that's productive about free markets. I suspect that I'm not alone.

EZ and Korean Worries Cool Risk Appetite

Kathy Lien — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 11:41:25 -0500

With no new catalysts to trigger a breakout move in the currency market, the euro, British pound and Japanese Yen consolidated against the U.S. dollar. The widening of Spanish, Irish and Portuguese bond spreads combined with a softer German producer price report has driven the euro slightly lower against the U.S. dollar. USD/JPY is also trading lower because bonds are performing better this morning.

Chinese Growth for 2011

Michael Pettis — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 09:20:12 -0500

For the past two months there have been very strong rumors in the markets that next year's new lending quota was going to be set somewhere between RMB 6.5 trillion and RMB 7.0 trillion. For comparison's sake, total new lending last year amounted to RMB 9.6 trillion, and this year the quota was RMB 7.5 trillion.

Frontrunning: December 20th

Tyler Durden — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 09:19:13 -0500

Daily Highlights: 12.20.2010

Tyler Durden — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 09:18:37 -0500

Bulls Win 3rd Straight Week

Drew Birenbaum — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 09:09:33 -0500
The S&P 500 led the way higher last week as the benchmark index added .28%. The index closed in positive territory for the third week in a row.
Overall action was fairly quiet though. Both of the indices that we track moved within a relatively narrow trading range for the week.

I expect action to continue to remain quiet as we approach the holidays. (Image: cogdog on Flickr)

Using Quantifiable Edges to Your Advantage

Rob Hanna — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 09:06:18 -0500
This post is the 2nd part of a series I started a few weeks ago that will discuss using quantifiable edges to your advantage. Today I'll discuss a common question I get about the studies. How many instances are needed for valid and usable results? It will lead into "What makes a study compelling?" in the next post.

The 2011 Bespoke Roundtable

Bill Luby — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 09:04:52 -0500

For the second year in a row, I have elected to stick my neck out and make my best guess at what the investment world will look like in the coming year in conjunction with the Bespoke Investment Group’s second annual roundtable.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Old Worries, New Worries

Jeff Miller — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 09:01:54 -0500

For the investor, there is always something to worry about. If worries meant "Do not invest!" no one would ever own stocks.

Interpreting worries is a continuing challenge for most. Here at "A Dash" I emphasize objective indicators in my weekly look at market conditions. If you find yourself switching around, or making excuses for dropping a favorite measure, it is a warning sign.

'Tis the Season

EUR/USD Rolls to S3

Bob Barnes — Mon, 20 Dec 2010 08:58:14 -0500

USD: Impact of Tax Plan and Fed Policy

Kathy Lien — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 05:41:26 -0500

Flat Earth Theory

Jeff Pietsch — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 05:12:43 -0500

Incredibly flat in equities land with a very slight negative sentiment from a sector spread standpoint. Imagine what an Irish downgrade would have precipitated just a few months ago? Of course it’s a bit of different story for the US Dollar…

Five ETFs for the 2011 Global Economy

Gary Gordon — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 04:30:00 -0500

Many of the major financial publications and news services are clamoring for 2011 predictions. I’ve already fielded requests from WSJ, Dow Jones and Investor’s Business Daily.

It doesn’t seem to matter that I am not, nor have I ever been, a “buy-hold-n-hoper.” The media have deadlines. They want my picks. And calendar-year prognosticating is a time-honored tradition for capturing more readers.

Gold's Mixed Performance

Brad Zigler — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 03:17:38 -0500

The world’s reserve currencies turned in a mixed performance against gold for the week ending Thursday. The Swiss franc was most resilient, rallying 2.7 percent against bullion, while the euro inched up 0.7 percent. Gold and the yen squared off to a standstill. Sterling lost 0.4 percent to the metal.

US dollar-denominated action centered on:

Financial ETFs Spring Back to Life

Jim Slagle — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 03:08:12 -0500

Getting Tripped-Up By Contango?

Jim Slagle — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 03:07:32 -0500

Gold ETFs Projected To Jump In Emerging Markets

Jim Slagle — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 03:06:26 -0500

U.S. ETF Assets Hit $1 Trillion Milestone

Jim Slagle — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 03:05:30 -0500

Avoiding Dead Money

Derek Hernquist — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 02:53:01 -0500

“You can’t start a fire without a spark.” Bruce Springsteen

Baltic Dry Dips Below 2,000

Tyler Durden — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 02:33:50 -0500

Looking For Juicy Yields? Try Muni Bond ETFs

Michael Johnston — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 02:28:04 -0500

Time to Take Another Bite Out of Apple?

David Grandey — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 02:08:50 -0500

One's time today may be better spent in the malls working on that Christmas list given what we are seeing in the two charts below:

Yeas and Nays

Chip Hanlon — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 02:04:16 -0500

In case you want to see how a specific legislator voted on the tax cut deal in the House:
Final Vote Results for Roll Call 647
The clerk's website lists the Democrats in regular print, Republicans in italics, fyi.

More Ideas for "Contango-Free" Commodity Access

Michael Johnston — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 01:47:01 -0500

Analyzing Financial Advice

Jim Picerno — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 12:14:58 -0500

The possibility that financial advice can sometimes be worse than nothing needs no explanation these days. Think Bernie Madoff. That was extreme, of course, but how wary should investors be when it comes to more prosaic counsel from, say, the local financial planner? As with everything else in finance, the answer boils down to a gray area. In short, it depends.

Dollar Firms on Leading Indicators and ECB

Kathy Lien — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 11:42:39 -0500

Frontrunning: December 17th

Tyler Durden — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 09:01:17 -0500

Daily Highlights: 12.17.2010

Tyler Durden — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 09:00:41 -0500

Should You Be Worried About The Hindenburg Omen?

Drew Birenbaum — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 08:35:21 -0500
Should investors run for the hills after yesterday's Hindenburg Omen signal?
Well, lets take a look at what happened the last time the signal was triggered, Thursday August 12th 2010. We were right in the middle of the summer doldrums, and investors were still shaking off the after effects of the flash crash.

Dr. Chu Points to Nuclear Energy

Jeff Miller — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 08:30:09 -0500

Dr. Steven Chu is the Nobel Prize winning physicist who now serves as the U.S. Secretary of Energy. He is a brilliant man from a family of leading researchers and scholars. He is also charming, engaging, and influential. From my perspective, the conclusion is an easy one: When Dr. Chu speaks, we should listen.

The Two-Year Tax Solution

Jim Picerno — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 08:27:22 -0500

The House of Representatives passed the tax-cut extension bill last night and sent it over to the White House for President Obama to sign it into law. The legislation prevents the Bush tax cuts from expiring on December 31, offering what some say is a stimulus for the economy at a critical point in the recovery.

EUR/USD at S2 Support

Bob Barnes — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 08:26:33 -0500