Published on greenfaucet (http://www.greenfaucet.com)
Nouriel Roubini and the VIX
By Bill Luby
Created 2009/06/11 - 12:36pm

Call me crazy, but lately I have been pondering the sudden disappearance of Nouriel Roubini [1] from the media scene. You could probably add the likes of Meredith Whitney [2] and others to the list of media sensations who rose to fame as a result of successful predictions about the financial crisis and have now been displaced by a different set of pundits who are talking about subjects green shoots, TARP [3] repayment, and the coming upturn in jobs and housing.

While Roubini's media star may be setting, the man himself is not slowing down - nor is he backing away from his bearish leaning. Today Roubini is out with Latvia's Currency Crisis Is a Rerun of Argentina's [4] and earlier in the week, the issue was Green Shoots or Yellow Weeds? [5]

So as I watch the S&P 500 index move above 950, I am thinking about complacency and the possibility of a ‘rebound bubble' of sorts.

I checked with Google Trends [6] to see what has happened to interest in Roubini and I was not surprised at all to see a chart that resembled that of the VIX. In fact, when I combined the Roubini Google Trends results with the VIX in the graphic below, I was interested to see that interest in Roubini seemed to be a leading indicator of sorts with respect to volatility.

Of course volatility looks as if it may have a stake driven through its heart today, but I am very skeptical that the VIX will be able to drop much below the current 27 level for at least the remainder of the month.

Click to enlarge:

[7]

[graphic: VIXandMore]

Disclosure: Long VIX at time of writing.


Source URL: http://www.greenfaucet.com/technical-analysis/nouriel-roubini-and-the-vix/41768

Links:
[1] http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/
[2] http://www.meredithwhitneyllc.com/
[3] http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/search/label/TARP
[4] http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/257052/latvias_currency_crisis_is_a_rerun_of_argentinas
[5] http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/257017/green_shoots_or_yellow_weeds_latest_project_syndicate_op-ed
[6] http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/search/label/Google Trends
[7] http://i104.photobucket.com/albums/m163/bl82/RoubiniandtheVIX061109.gif