The market is off to a horrible start today. Back in November I looked [1] at days that started off strong and did not register a negative TICK reading for the entire first half-hour. Strong starts often led to strong finishes. Today there were no positive TICK readings for the 1st half-hour. This kind of weakness happens quite rarely. When it has occurred in the past, it's made for some very rough days. Below are statistics showing the 10am - 4pm EST performance after such weak starts.
[2]
Certainly not a knife you want to normally try and catch.
For those who would rather view it as a short-selling opportunity, here's how it looks from the short side.
[3]
No matter how you view it, very weak starts like today tend to carry big risk and little reward for the bulls for the remainder of the day.
Links:
[1] http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2009/11/what-strong-early-tick-has-meant-in.html
[2] http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_931wANibTqw/S2rmyP8B9mI/AAAAAAAABgc/lv7dUkQuhUk/s1600-h/2010-2-4 png1.png
[3] http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_931wANibTqw/S2rmyvzOkXI/AAAAAAAABgk/kvfCtFEVyNE/s1600-h/2010-2-4 png2.png