Published on greenfaucet (http://www.greenfaucet.com)
Observing Today's Market
By Jerry Slusiewicz
Created 2008/06/26 - 12:48pm

I'm looking at the 10 year Treasury today at 4.07% and I ask if everyone thinks the Fed missed the mark yesterday and was too soft on inflation.  Why are these yields down from the 4.32% seen just 10 days ago?  Then I review the Fed statement which basically stated that inflation will get back in control later this year or by next year.  Why or How?  The bond market is huge compared to the stock market!  Are the bond traders missing something?  The yield on the 10 year should be skyrocketing up if the fear is inflation.  But that's not happening.  The overnight lending rate is controlled by the Fed, not the 10 year. 

What is clear to me is housing - most Americans largest investment has been deflating!  And the stock market is also on the same path!  Americans are growing poorer every day.  Job losses are increasing, financial companies are in need of cash so they very little to lend, and the economy as a whole is slowing.  With that said, I disagree with the Fed when they commented that "although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat".  Clearly deflation is the biggest current problem facing Americans today.  The stock market could drop below 11,000 very quickly, adversely affecting retirement accounts. As far as real estate goes, do you want to catch a falling chainsaw...?


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