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Sabrient Investor
 

NewsletterPublished:  February 19, 2009 5:10 PM PST

The heart of the current gloom seems to be the almost daily bad news – actual and anticipated – from the Financial sector. This week’s unpleasant surprise was the disclosure on Tuesday of the SEC charges against Stanford Financial Corp.  Certainly, not all the financial bad news is fraudulent; much is related to weakened capital conditions.  However, another massive fraud by a financial institutional doesn’t help.

The market continues to teeter at the edge of a cliff, with the S&P below the important 800 level. What is needed to return the market to a more positive bias, in my opinion, is some tangible evidence that a recovery is at least in the embryonic stages. There are still remarkable bargains out there that will prove to be true gems as we look back a year or so from now.

LONG PICKS

FOSTER WHEELER, AG
NYSE:  FWLT
Market cap:  Mid-cap
Sector: Industrials
Industry:  Construction & Engineering
Sabrient Outlook Score: 99
Sabrient Value Score:  91
Sabrient Growth Score: 84
Dividend yield:  N/A
Comments:  Low P/E to its own history; benefits from stimulus package
Price When Picked:  $20.47
Sample alternative Call option: UFB HD Aug 20 Call

 

SHORT PICKS

ROYAL GOLD, INC.
Nasdaq:  RGLD
Market cap:  Mid-cap
Sector:   Materials
Industry: Metals & Mining   
Sabrient Outlook Score:  0
Sabrient Value Score:  0
Sabrient Growth Score: 28
Comments:  Very high price-to-earnings; recent serious earnings revisions downward
Price When Picked:  $45.73
Sample alternative Put option: MJQ SI Jul 45 Put
(see margin notes on selecting alternative Puts)

 

MODEL LONG / SHORT PORTFOLIO
TICKER DATE PICKED PRICE PICKED DATE ENTERED ENTRY PRICE TODAY'S CLOSING
PRICE (2/20/09)
RETURN
LONG
ANR 1/28/2009 18.87 1/30/2009 17.63 18.85 6.9%
Hidden 1/28/2009   1/30/2009      
Hidden 2/4/2009   2/6/2009      
Hidden 2/4/2009   2/6/2009      
Hidden 2/11/2009   2/13/2009      
Hidden 2/11/2009   2/13/2009      
Hidden 2/18/2009   2/20/2009      
FWLT 2/18/2009 20.47 2/20/2009 TBD    
SHORT
AMT 1/28/2009 32.00 1/30/2009 31.26   26.25 16.0%
Hidden 1/28/2009   1/30/2009      
Hidden 2/4/2009   2/6/2009      
Hidden 2/4/2009   2/6/2009      
Hidden 2/11/2009   2/13/2009      
Hidden 2/11/2009   2/13/2009      
Hidden 2/18/2009   2/20/2009      
RGLD 2/18/2009 45.73 2/20/2009 TBD    


 

 

Editor's Note: The Sabrient Investors' (H)Edge Newsletter is written by David Brown, chief market strategist for Sabrient Systems. David is a former NASA scientist, retired CEO of Telescan, Inc., and author of four books on investing. (More about David)

Disclaimer:  This newsletter is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as advice or a recommendation to specific individuals. Individuals should take into account their own unique and specific circumstances in acting on any stock selection made by Sabrient. Sabrient makes no representations that the techniques used in these reports will result in or guarantee profits in trading. Trading involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses, and past performance is no indication of future results.

 

How to Use this Service:

The Sabrient Investor's (H)edge newsletter is a quantitative long/short portfolio. It is based on an institutional-quality strategy designed to be unbiased, emotionless, and highly disciplined.

Each week, Sabrient's forward-looking company outlook model identifies one new long pick and one new short pick, both of which are intended for a 13- week hold. Each new pick replaces the oldest member of the portfolio from 13 weeks prior. (Note: During this initial ramp up period, we are identifying 2 longs and 2 shorts each week, with no deletions, until we reach a 12 long / 12 short portfolio. Then we will add one more long and short to complete the 13 long / 13 short portfolio.)

We will track performance assuming new positions were entered at Friday's opening prices. However, you should try to get the best price possible during the first few days following the initial recommendation.

We recommend allocating a set amount of capital to the strategy and taking on all positions in equal dollars (not equal shares).

Caution: We strongly recommend that you do not "cherry pick" only a few stocks. This is a quantitative model that relies upon a "basket approach" to ensure steady performance and to diversify the risk of one stock hurting the portfolio.

New Subscribers:

If you are new to the service, we suggest that you build a full portfolio over 4 weeks by selectively putting on 3 longs and 3 shorts each week. Besides the newest recommendations for the current week, you should look for opportunities to scale into the more recent picks in the Model Portfolio table.

Alternative Put Options:

For those who prefer not to short stocks or who are not authorized to short or whose broker cannot borrow shares of the given Short selection, we suggest using Put options. We leave it up to you as to how much time to buy and how far in-the-money you prefer. However, here are the guidelines that we prefer for attempting to replicate the performance of the model portfolio:

  • Choose an expiration date that exceeds the projected 13-week holding period.
  • Choose a strike price that is sufficiently in-the-money to produce a delta of around 0.50.
  • Buy a sufficient number of contracts so that the given delta will approximate the dollar return of the short stock position.