RSSChina ETFs: Mullen and Mobius Are Buying Chinese Stocks... Should You?
By Gary Gordon | December 04, 2008 | 4:04 PM | 0 Comments
China’s government recently cut its key lending rate by the most it had in more than a decade. It's also pledged a $580 billion stimulus package. Together, these efforts are supposed to stimulate the Chinese economy.
At least that's what a number of prominent international money managers think. Mullen, chief executive officer at Shanghai-based Emperor Investment Management, believes that prices haven't been this attractive since the Asian financial crisis of 1998. Mullen also maintain that Chinese businesses that serve the Chinese consumer and the mainland's infrastructure will post better earnings growth than anywhere else in the world.
Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, agrees. He recently explained that he is aggressively purchasing consumer discretionary stocks due to a likely consumer "boom" in emerging standouts like China.
It's difficult for me to go back and review what each man may have said about China's future in October, 2007... before major China indexes fell 50%+ from their highs. I do know, however, that both Templeton China (NSDQ: TCWAX) and Emperor China, a private hedge fund, lost 50% in value in 2008... just like the indexes.
So call me skeptical if the talk about boundless opportunity isn't a bit self-serving. The reality is, the world is in this thing together. If developed countries worldwide are able to show signs of pulling out of a multi-year recession, the emerging countries will likely appreciate at a faster rate.
More downside risk, yet more upside reward. It all seems to depend upon the elusive "bottom" for the asset class we call, "stock."
We can note, though, that the iShares China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI) is closing in on its 50-day moving average. Not since June has it genuinely held above its shorter-term trend. It hasn't been above its long-term 200-day average since January 2008.
If it breaks out above the 50-day, one might wade into to Chinese waters. Yet one will need to be disciplined with a stop-loss percentage in place... to guard against the possibility of rapid deterioration.
If you'd like to listen to more... if you want to learn about international ETFs, then tune into "In the Money With Gary Gordon." You can listen to the show "live" or via podcast at this link.
Disclosure Statement: ETF Expert is a web log ("blog") that makes the world of ETFs easier to understand. Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor with the SEC, may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds and/or index funds mentioned above. Investors who are interested in money management services may visit the Pacific Park Financial, Inc. web site.
| 
|
