By Chip Hanlon | June 26, 2008 | 11:27 AM | 7 Comments
If you're starting to panic about the market's sell-off, you're alone. Or perhaps more appropriately, too alone.
Despite oil prices, a sick dollar, the housing debacle, price increases from manufacturers which are sure to be felt in coming months and now a battered stock market, sentiment indicators are showing almost no fear.
For example, there has been no spike in the VIX, even with today's sell-off. Sure, the volatility index is up 2 points today, but that's up 2 points to just 23! At the January and March lows of this year, that gauge of investor fear spiked above 35. Long way to go here.
Likewise, put/call ratios are showing little investor concern. The 10-day total put/call moving average stands only at 1; tradable bottoms in recent years have coincided with readings on this indicator closer to the 1.3 range-significantly more puts being bought than calls as evidence of investor panic.
Only the Investors Intelligence survey of industry professionals is showing some hope, having just registered its second straight week of more advisors who are bearish than bullish. Even one week is a rarity, so this is a hopeful contrary sign but other key sentiment indicators just aren't there.
Someone might say, "It's good that investors aren't panicking." Actually, it isn't. If you're looking to do some buying you want more evidence that people have thrown the baby out with the bath water, that they have gone overboard in pricing in a worst-case economic outcome.
Instead, they remain far too complacent despite all the worrisome economic signs we're seeing all around us.
There really isn't much Dow support for another 1000 points below us. I hope we're not headed that way, but if you read that number and think the idea of such a sell-off from here is ridiculous, you may be suffering from the very complacency I'm suggesting is so worrisome.
Careful out there, no rush to buy the market back yet.
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