“Precious” Oasis?

By Kurt Kasun | June 20, 2008 | 3:47 PM | 1 Comment

I think that this week's (and especially today's) positive action in the prices of silver, gold, and platinum, while recognizably higher, has gone underappreciated and unreported in the financial media. In 2006 and 2007 we saw the prices of these metals trade mainly as "high-beta." That is to say if the market traded higher, these metals and stocks would trade 1.5 or 2 X higher, or they would trade that much lower on down days. This year we are beginning to see strong inverse correlations develop, especially as the metals hold up (or even register gains on some occasions) on big down days for the general stock market.

I view this as a transition. During the weeks and months ahead, I expect to see even stronger covariance, especially on big down days. Also, expect to see other commodity groups not hold up as well on big down days. As bonds fall under further pressure money will flow to gold and other precious metals as the real safe haven trade.
As I write this the DJIA is down 220 while the prices of gold, silver, platinum, the XAU, and the HUI still remain in positive territory.

Below is the portfolio performance chart followed by sector commentary:

Interesting That covariance you speak of was definitely evident Friday. Thanks for the input. I wonder if the market were to rally, how that would fare for commodities? Submitted by sftower on Sun, 2008/06/22 - 12:47am » reply |