Jim Welsh
Contributor
Member for
15 weeks 26 min
Biography
Mr. Welsh has been involved in the investment business since becoming a Registered Representative with Blunt, Ellis, & Loewi in April 1979. In April 1985 he began publishing a monthly investment letter, “The Financial Commentator”, which has been quoted numerous times in the Market Watch column of Barrons, a national business publication. His newsletter has also been quoted often in the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Dick Davis Digest, and Income Digest. His analysis focuses on Federal Reserve monetary policy, and how policy affects the economy and the financial markets.
Mr. Welsh was wary of the tech stock mania in late 1999 and early 2000 and warned subscribers in the February 2000 issue of The Financial Commentator, “I’ve heard a number of analysts declare that technology stocks will be immune to interest rate increases in this cycle, since technology is the ‘New Economy,’ and the old economy rules don’t apply. This notion is wishful thinking. My experience has been that technology stocks not only go down when the market succumbs to higher rates, but tech stocks usually fall more than the averages. Based on historical valuations, technology stocks could lose half their value and still not be cheap!”
In his March 2007 letter, he warned that a tightening of lending standards by banks represented a sea change that would lead to a slowdown in the economy before the end of 2007. In October, he noted that technical weakness in the U.S stock market, combined with an economic slowdown would be bearish for stocks. In his March 2008 letter, he forecast a rally in the S&P to 1420-1440, before the bear market in stocks would resume. His analysis provides a unique blend of fundamental and technical analysis.
During the last 20 years, Mr. Welsh has been interviewed on radio and T.V. more than 3,000 times, including the Financial News Network, CNBC, the Business Channel in Chicago, the Business Channel in Los Angeles, CBS radio in Chicago, frequently on San Diego business talk shows, and on the internet based Market Views.com.
