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Farmland Stocks As An Investment Theme

By Roger Nusbaum | August 05, 2008 | 12:34 PM | 2 Comments

Many investors love REITs. Some folks advocate 15-20% in REITs because of their low correlation to stocks and their high dividend yields. The three of you who may have ever read my stuff before I came on board with greenfaucet might recall that I was never in the 15% camp for a couple of reasons.

One is that 15% in anything is a very big bet offering the chance to get blindsided by the unexpected. Also I just never felt really comfortable with a lot of exposure here. I consider myself very lucky to have only had one across the board REIT holding when the group started to rollover last year. I think the bloom is off the REIT rose given that the correlation to financials went up at the worst possible time.

One aspect of investment management that makes the job fun is that portfolio construction is always evolving. One bit of evolution I think I see is with REITs or more specifically land; farmland. There is a clear and obvious global need for food (crops, meat and dairy) which creates visibility for investment demand for farms and companies that provide services to farms.

Farm stocks v SPX

The chart compares two farm stocks along with the S&P 500.  One, PGG Wrightson (OTCPK: PGWFF) from New Zealand has been a great place to hide out during the bear market while Trigon Agri (OTCPK: TRGAF) from Sweden has been crushed. There are other charts that look like PGWFF and others still that look like TRGAF.

The demand story is obvious but the segment is not simple. There are stocks from Indonesia and Malaysia that focus on palm oil, rubber and coffee. Trigon, mentioned above is listed in Sweden but the farmland is in Russia and Estonia. There are quite a few farm related stocks from Australia and New Zealand.

For a more extensive list you can click here

This theme only makes sense of you think the global food story has legs for the long term. It seems clear to me that the food story for many ascending countries is real but I could be wrong.

You need to do your own work on this but the way I view the theme, if I am looking for something to be a proxy for REITs then that means looking for low correlation to stocks, maybe low volatility and a little yield. Some of the Asian and antipodean names offer these traits but I might expect big bounces from Trigon and some point and another Swedish listed, Russian based farm stock called Black Earth, but I don't know when. 

Anyone looking to learn more about this segment and possibly wade in should do so in moderation. The story is compelling but I think the mindset needs to be that you are adding something that might give a little boost not adding something that will be a ten bagger.

I have a limit order in for one stock that if it excutes will amount to about a 2% weight in client portfolios. 

Comments (2)  |  Related Topics  » | |

 
Farmland Investment via Private Equity Vehicles

Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership, a Calgary based agricluture private equity firm, has a limited partnership that allows investors to deploy capital in the western Canadian farmland. The Canadian farmland premise is driven by the following factors:

1. Canadian farmland is high quality: Canada is the third largest wheat exporter in the world and in aggregate one of the largest agricultural producers in the world. The three western Canadian provinces alone have approximately 135 million acres of farmland and produce approximately 20 million tons of wheat a year.

2. Canadian farmland is low cost: Agcapita believes Saskatchewan farmland in particular is an undervalued asset. With an average price of $390 per acre, Saskatchewan farmland is some of the least expensive in the world. The prices in Alberta are almost 3 times higher than Saskatchewan at an average of $1,100.

3. Canada has world class farming infrastructure: Unlike investing in farmland in emerging markets such as Argentina, Brazil or Russia, Canadian farmland is supported by first world storage, processing, and shipping infrastructure. This infrastructure is extremely costly to reproduce.

4. Canada has low political risk: Unlike emerging markets, Canada lacks significant political risk. Canadian farmland owners benefit from a transparent and enforceable title system with no material risk of de jure or, worse yet, de facto expropriation. In practice, countries as diverse as Russia, India, Argentina, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and Brazil are already imposing or publically considering restrictions on agriculture ranging from export tariffs to proposals for outright nationalization. Removing political risk from farmland investments will be a key element in achieving returns.

5. Strong Global Macro Drivers: Canadian farmland prices are being driven by strong and persistent global market forces.
- A decreasing amount of arable land worldwide, proportionate to the increasing population;
- An increasing demand for meat calories (as development occurs and standards of living increase) which need more farmland for production than grain calories; and
- A commitment by many countries (including Canada) to increase the use of biofuels, which will need farmland for production. Current mandates alone will require over 440 million acres or over 10% of the world’s arable land.

6. Inflation – Farmland is “gold with a cash yield”: Even Inflation is accelerating across the globe and will also act to drive agriculture commodity and farmland prices much higher. Farmland has a high positive correlation to inflation and therefore is a good inflation hedge. In fact, farmland outperforms during inflationary periods. The rate of annual US money supply growth (M3 reconstructed) has actually doubled in the last 2 years – to over 16% - and virtually every major economy in the world is pursuing aggressive monetary policies as they attempt to inflate out of the current credit crisis and/or maintain growth. Money supply growth (M2, M3 and M3 reconstructed pa):

Switzerland - 1%
EU - 12%
Canada - 12%
UK - 13%
US - 16%
China - 19%
India - 20%
Russia - 48%

7. Returns: Agcapita captures both operating and capital appreciation returns by acquiring a portfolio of farmland which it leases to qualified operators on a cash rent and/or crop sharing basis. Carbon credits are aggregated and marketed to existing exchanges.

8. Diversification: It is very difficult to obtain diversification in the current market with high positive correlations between virtually all asset classes. This is a very unusual state of affairs in financial history. There are very few uncorrelated assets classes accessible to the average investor. Farmland has a small negative correlation to stocks and a high correlation to inflation. The challenge is how to cost effectively deploy capital in these areas – private equity partnerships like Agcapita allow diversification at reasonable investment levels and professional management of all the complex operational and legal elements of making a farmland investment.

Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 2008/09/26 - 12:10am » reply |
 
"farmland"//Reits

EPR has begun to accumulate vineyards in California....just a fyi and fwiw

Submitted by jlg (not verified) on Wed, 2008/08/27 - 9:14am » reply |

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