Get these stats from the local sushi restaurant at which I had lunch today, where business is already noticeably slow, according to the owner:

50-lb bag of rice: up 50% since February

Tempura Oil: up 100% over the same time

His menu prices? They haven't budged yet.  But, he says, "I'm going to have to raise prices soon--not by 40 or 50%, but at least ten.  My profits are getting ruined... it's going to be a very tough time for businesses."

So, it's just one little sushi joint, right? Not so fast. Ever since writing about inflation's ripples earlier this month, I've been seeing everywhere more and more signs that consumers have not yet seen the full impact of today's inflation, that price hikes haven't made their way all the way through to them. This sushi restaurant is one tiny example that more pain is almost certainly coming to the American consumer later this year.

By the way: the one core input of this restaurant owner which hadn't risen much yet was his fish. Our research says that price increase is coming before year-end.