Energy Pause No Problem for Canadian Trusts

By Chip Hanlon | May 15, 2008 | 9:32 AM | 1 CommentTweet This

There has been a lot of talk lately about oil's need to pull back. With global infrastructure one of the areas we advise on, it remains my sincere impression that despite the investment world's awareness of the China/emerging markets/raw materials story, most folks still don't quite grasp its sheer immensity and its ongoing implications for raw materials.

This backdrop that has caused me to say that  energy, base metals and agriculture prices had little downside risk and that most commodities would outperform gold for awhile the last couple of times I was on CNBC (watch here: May 8, March 24).

Despite this morning's strength in crude, let's entertain an oil price correction based on short-term technicals and even perhaps a nod to the revelation that Iran is storing 20 million barrels of oil in tankers offshore.

Let's say oil pulled back $10-15/barrel... it would indeed weigh on related stocks. Regardless, the group investors should come back around on is the energy trusts. As part of our ongoing work on a Canadian energy trust portfolio on which we advise, we speak with and visit these companies regularly. None will talk about their own future dividend policies, of course, but they can speculate on their peers and all say they're aware of a number of competitors who they believe are likely to hike distributions later this year.

Even should energy prices cool a bit, widespread distribution increases in this sector in '08 look increasingly likely. Despite the group's solid performance so far this year, I'm convinced investors are still behind the curve on this one and don't fully appreciate the powerful position the energy trusts are now in. That's the energy group I would look at first should the price of crude correct.

And, keep in mind: such a pullback is not a given, so start re-discovering these stocks now. You might determine a game of half now, half on any pull back might be the way to go.

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what correction? oil is abov 125 today...what make you think it si going to pull bakc frm here? Submitted by dollarcrumbs on Thu, 2008/05/15 - 10:24am » reply |

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