AIPAC Speech Highlights a Big Obama Problem

In a post last night, I promised to post a series on Barack Obama over coming days and why he's no shoe-in to become President. In catching the tail-end of Senator Obama's speech at AIPAC's national convention this morning, I decided to touch on a topic I hadn't planned on talking about for a few days: the big challenge I suspect he is going to have with a typically reliable Democrat voting bloc-- Jewish voters.

I'm a former donor-member of AIPAC-- "former" merely because the organization is non-partisan and I made a decision a couple years ago to engage only in partisan pursuits with my limited political time-- which concerns itself with the sole issue of Israel's security and I have sat in that very audience to which Obama spoke today. I can tell you: that was a VERY tepid ovation and response from what is a highly-educated, very engaged audience.

My read is this: anyone concerned about Israeli security is going to think long and hard about voting for Obama. Democrats shriek at anyone who might question Obama's commitment to Israel, but he has stated plainly that Islamic terrorists are more dangerous because we're in Iraq.  It is quite reasonable, then, for voters to conclude that anyone who believes we would be safer if we would immediately abandon Iraq would further decide we'd be even safer if we turned our backs on Israel.

Indeed, a number of close, local friends who are Israeli by birth and who have never voted Republican have told me-- to a person-- in recent weeks that if Obama were to get the nomination, they would "hold their noses" and vote for McCain based on one issue: Israeli security. My experience is anecdotal, to be sure, but I suspect it is emblematic of a challenge that will weigh heavily on his choice of a running mate, as well as his ability to win a key swing state like Florida. Today's AIPAC speech likely did little to help Obama on this topic.

You're no doubt noticing this Pub blog is taking a political turn; it's partly because it is a big area of interest and activity for me personally, but also partly because nothing impacts markets more than political outcomes so expect more of the same through November and beyond.

I'm also enjoying/getting used to the timely nature of a blog feature like this. See you again soon.

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