RSSShippers: Don't Miss the Boat
By Bruce Zaro | May 08, 2008 | 2:39 AM | 0 Comments
The rise in value of commodities positions is old news by now. Most investors have been able to read the writing on the wall, even if much of it today is in hanzi (Chinese characters). But it isn't all about the commodities themselves...a commodity isn't worth much unless it can be moved from the source to the end user, and that's why transportation costs are regaining respect as a component of commodities' value.
As raw materials and finished products take to the water in record quantities, the reasonable consequence should be a rise in shipping stock values. We believe this is one of those times investors should listen to reason.
Very quietly, marine indices have been on fire in 2008. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which averages Supramax, Panamax and Capsize indices to provide an overall assessment of dry bulk shipping costs, was puttering down around 6,000 in late January. Recently, however, it has snuck all the way back up near the 10,000 mark and looks poised not only to reach last summer's high of 10,700 but to pass it on the run.
The PHLX Marine Shipping Index, an equal weighted average of 17 companies involved in the transport of crude oil, dry goods and agricultural products, has jumped nearly straight up from its March low of 316. At 422, it already has its sights on the 432 high of October 2007 and we believe it could clear that bar with room to spare.
While some of these stocks, such as leading names Dry Ships (DRYS) and Eagle Bulk (EGLE), are arguably a little overbought in the short run, there has been such a convincing string of buy signals in the group that any dip would likely represent a buying opportunity.
And because the dry bulk shippers move such economically-sensitive materials (iron ore, steel, coal, etc.), it should serve as leading ‘tell' on an economic slowdown; with record shipping rates within sight, the global recession argument is a tough one to square against this group's fundamentals.
Yes, it's true, the boat has left the dock-these stocks have been on the move in recent weeks-but we believe there's likely still a profitable journey ahead for shipping stocks and that it's not too late to board.
*Disclosure: the author's firm serves as portfolio advisor to The Delta Global Shipping portfolio, a UIT containing securities of companies that derive their main source of revenue from maritime shipping of crude oil, dry bulk and container cargo.
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