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by Jim Farrish  | Website: Sector Exchange  | PUBLISHED: May 27, 2008 AT 9:02 AM |   | | | | | | |

Scanning the ETF globe this morning I came up with the following thoughts:

The disturbing reality of higher energy prices impacted the markets last week and after a long weekend we will see how this theme plays out. As I always do each morning, scanning the ETFs and looking for some clarity to last weeks activity and it was interesting to see the damage done to large cap value stocks. (AMEX: DVY) Dow Jones Select Dividend, (AMEX: IWW) Russell 3000 Value Index and (NYSE: JKF) Moringstar Large Value, looking at three charts show the impact of last weeks selling. Why value relative to growth? Value investors tend to be more patient by nature and thus, give a better pulse short term to the selling. I am trying to get a view of the investor's outlook or faith in the markets. It appears the fear factor has set in and unless something happens to change the outlook near term the selling could continue. Oil is the key data point short term and that is where I would focus for a catalyst.

This morning I ran a scan of the five day price trend versus the market. What I am looking for is the contrary movement to the selling from last week. The first nine ETFs were ProShares Ultrashort Funds (figures), but then we see (AMEX: UNG) Natural Gas, (AMEX:SLV) Silver, (AMEX: NLR) Nuclear Energy, (AMEX: USO) Crude, (NYSE) HHR Healthshares Respiratory, (AMEX: DBC) PowerShares Commodity Index and (AMEX: DBP) Precious Metals. It is not surprising to see commodities leading the pack. But, it is also interesting to see some of the sectors I covered in Friday mornings update. The trend last week shifted back to the old leaders as investors felt pressure of rising oil prices. The key question in my mind is how long will this last? Over the weekend I read numerous articles and headlines discussing oil being overbought and due for a pullback. Those types of headlines disturb me. I have learned overbought can become more overbought. Technical indicators are a tool not a law. Let them be a guide, it will be obvious when the move is over so be patient.

Quick overview of what I covered last week:

(AMEX: DUG) short energy made a nice move off the bottom as the energy sector moved down. Note that oil really didn't change much. It seems short term investors are trying to ‘will' the cost of crude down by selling their energy stocks. The uptrend in energy is still in play and I am looking for the trendline to break first before jumping into a play here. Still worth watching.

NLR is looking good short term. Keep on your watch list.

Healthcare still looks positive. As you saw in the list from the five day scan above, several healthcare ETFs showed up near the top of the list. This could build and amount to something, keep it on the watch list for now.

International utilities are still in a short term uptrend and worth watching this week as well.

Emotions are favoring the bear, keep your stops in place and look for opportunities.

USO is already moving lower due to the decline in oil. However, the volatility of this sector is such that if I owned USO I would have a trailing stop to protect myself in the event oil does drop more than expected.

How long do you think USO will continue to move upward? Today, data from the weekend shows that the price of a barrel decreased slightly.
If US consumers change their driving habits (and who wouldn't at after paying $90 for a tank of gas), demand will change, and USO may take a hit.

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