HUGE News Week - Fed, Economics, Earnings and Jobs

October lived up to its reputation as a volatile month.  Heck, it was only 10 days ago the SPX was at 1100, up 4% for the month and looking for more.  However, something happened along the way to nirvana...the sellers came back with a raging fury.  We look for trends to establish, and one of the best indicators is volume.  I've noted for years the key to trend shifts is volume...where the big money is flowing.  What's been the mantra for months?  Buy the dips.  To be sure, the dip buyers have helped keep this rally going...momentum is king.  As long as buyers come in higher prices are likely.  When it stops?  Well...you've played musical chairs before, right?  Is that the case now?  New month, same result?  

Breaking Support---It's Crunchtime!  

Moving averages act as support and resistance.  When the bulls forced prices higher in the summer over some big time resistance, the theory holds that tests of the MA's are buying opportunities.  That strategy made good money for the last few months.  Today, we're testing that 50 MA again, but this time around it's different than it was the last time, late June/early July.  More volume, distribution, selling and institutional activity.  We're going to find out what the bulls are made of soon, but if the new theme is sell the rips, we could be in for some tough days ahead.     

Commodities Still Pushed Around by Uncle Buck  

I'm still a bit stunned at how the dollar is the tail wagging the dog these days.  Oh sure, a strong dollar means support for the economy, yet the divergence with markets is stunning.  The market seems to tempt buyers/sellers of the greenback to push back.  Only in recent years has there been so much attention paid to the dollar, the notion of more debt having its consequences.  We'll monitor this development, but certainly the trend is your friend on this trade (bullish commodities, bearish dollar).   

HUGE News Week - Fed, Economics, Earnings and Jobs  

This being the first week in November, there was quite a bit out there to be digested.  The Fed convened their meeting on Wednesday, and a slew of earnings reports hit this week.  Just when you thought it was over, there's more!  Finally, jobs data will came in hot n' heavy starting Wednesday, and a host of other big economic reports were rather positive.  With just eight weeks left in this year the race is on!