China, Oil and the Dollar

You'd have a hard time finding topics more on the minds of investors and traders than these three.  China is the big one of course, but the other two are related as well.  Let's take a look and see how these big areas can/will affect markets going forward.    

All the World's a 'Fair'  

In 2010, Shanghai will for the first time host the World's Fair.  The theme will be "Better City, Better Life."  In 2008 it was the Olympics, now the World's Fiar.  Certainly good fortune shines on China as they once again take center stage.  We know that in 2008 they did everything possible to 'dress up' the country, put it's best foot forward.  What's to think this won't happen again?  The demand for materials is strong and likely to continue into early 2010.  That will help commodities rise.   

Black Gold is on the Rise

  For all the fundamental reasons...lower demand, excess supply...does it make sense to see oil at these levels?  Of course not.  But when you look at momentum and technicals it becomes crystal clear.  The commodity is on a breakout and has been since it launched last week at $75.  We don't argue with trends, rather we look to get on board and ride them out.  There is no thinking, no observing and no complaining.  It makes no sense trying to understand it, because we can't and shouldn't.  You identify and you make your move...PERIOD.  That being said, the trend continues (higher) until further notice.  Strong crude will help keep the market going higher.   

Dollar Daze....Is it Really THAT Bad?  

Lots of chatter these days about the weak dollar and the negative effects of it.  Well, frankly...the stock market (and the bond market) have not reacted to it.  What I do see though is the dollar back to where it was in summer 2008, when the stock market was higher than it is now.  Oh sure, we can talk about the moral issues...but is that really going to help us trade?  Probably not...so let's leave the discussion and the controversy to the 'other guy' while we capitalize on it.  What's good?  Commodities, oil, gold, metals, fertilizers, coal...these names will do well if the dollar remains