Noah's Arc Weathers the Market Storm
By Kurt Kasun | May 20, 2008 | 9:18 PM | 0 Comments
The portfolio is now 5.17% up from the 4.42 % gain registered as of Friday's close. Not bad considering the DJIA is 160 points lower over the last couple of days and amidst today's tumultuous trading. A higher PPI, record crude oil, and another banking sector downgrade from Meredith Whitney could have been enough to knock down the broader market, but most of the stocks in the trading portfolio have weathered the storm quite well. Here is the updated portfolio as of today's close:
| Sector | Ticker | Stock | Entry Price | Stop | Last Trade | Percent Change |
| Gold | AEM | AGNICO EAGLE MINES | 66.05 | 62.7475 | 73.11 | 10.69% |
| 4.90% | KGC | KINROSS GOLD CP | 19.86 | 18.867 | 21.39 | 7.70% |
| Coal | ACI | ARCH COAL INC | 63.55 | 60.3725 | 66.1 | 4.01% |
| 5.73% | BTU | PEABODY ENERGY CORP | 72.22 | 68.609 | 78.23 | 8.32.% |
| Nat Gas | DVN | DEVON ENERGY CP (OK) | 117.5 | 111.625 | 124.36 | 5.84% |
| 2.29% | RRC | RANGE RES CORP | 68.62 | 65.189 | 75.0 | 9.30% |
| Dry B. Ships | TBSI | TBSI INTERNATIONAL | 54.56 | 51.832 | 54.41 | -0.27% |
| 6.94% | DRYS | DRYSHIPS INC. | 104.19 | 98.9805 | 99.25 | -4.74% |
| Metals | TCK | TECK COMINCO CL B | 49.89 | 47.3955 | 52.46 | 5.15% |
| 4.13% | FCX | FREEPORT MCMORAN B | 119.04 | 113.088 | 125.86 | 5.73% |
| Refiners | FTO | FRONTIER OIL CP | 25.94 | 24.643 | 27.26 | 5.09% |
| 1.00% | TSO | TESORO CORP | 24.76 | 23.522 | 25.67 | 3.68% |
| Oil Service | CAM | CAMERON INTL CP | 52.47 | 49.8465 | 55.2 | 5.20% |
| 5.96% | RIG | TRANSOCEAN INC | 151.29 | 143.7255 | 161.4 | 6.68% |
| TOTAL | 5.17% |
Following up on my "What to Look For" column in my last commentary I have made some good calls and some that, shall we say, have not yet come to pass. On precious metals, I nailed Monday’s rapid $8/oz. retreat after hitting the $810 level. I view today's vault to $820 as bullish and I advise adding to your gold stocks--fire at will. My best call was probably in the coal group where I predicted ACI would be upgraded. Well, today Calyon upgraded them to add and they rallied nicely. To my knowledge this is the only upgrade among the coal stocks so far this week. Stick with what you have on coal. I was sort of sheepishly bullish on the nat gas group and this group has far surpassed my expectations this week. Nat gas has a big rally with crude today. Hold what you have here too.
The Dry bulk ships have proven to be the most difficult sector with both picks in the minus column. I was more bullish on these two than any of the others. DRYS delivered stellar earnings yesterday and the BDI has registered at all-time highs each of the last two days. I characterize the selloff as technical profit-taking and still believe TBSI and DRYS are going to move sharply higher soon. I would aggressively buy at these levels. The base metal stocks have marked time as I predicted. Not bad in a down market. Continue to hold your positions.The refiners have also moved higher as I expected...this with oil up $3.50 since Friday. This is bullish. Summer driving season is beginning to be priced in. Buy more on weakness. The oil service stocks have moved moderately higher and should continue to do so.
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