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Falling Knife

While I applaud your initiative in conducting independent analysis of a specific real estate market, your "Buyers Moral of the Story" is pretty misguided. Just because you have an opportunity to "purchase something for significantly less money than before" doesn't mean that it will appreciate or even hold its value over a desired investment horizon. Your analysis suffers from two main defects: 1) It covers a very short time frame; and 2) It makes no attempt at analyzing factors that would affect the future of Malibu real estate prices. You presuppose that because real estate prices go up long-term, simply buying at any point after a drop will guarantee a positive return. Hell, the stock market should be higher in 10 years, so why not go on a buying spree right now? Well, because the money invested while the market continues to drop can be put to productive use elsewhere (bonds, commodities, for example) where it can generate positive returns. Finally, you have no idea that the real estate market will have rebounded in "more than a couple of years"; in fact, this country has typically seen long periods of stagnation in prices following large booms.

I expected more from a fellow Cornellian;)

Submitted by mbborak on Mon, 2008/07/07 - 3:28pm » 

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