Michael,

Thank you.  We will see whether commodity rally flames out in spectacular fashion or continues for a few more years.  We should know one way or another by the end of 2010...I did leave myself a little wiggle room saying that I would not totally dismiss the view of most commodity bulls that we have another 5-15 years before the boom is over.

On houses, I agree...after another 10-20% decline (depending on region) prices shold stabilize in nominal terms, but not really appreciate either.  This will allow owners to more easily service their mortgage debt, but houses will still be dead money (which is better than the decline they are now in) and will depreciate in inflation-adjusted real terms.