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Not A Bottom

Technically this is not a bottom in housing; I am using a monthly chart of the Phila Housing Index.  If we accept that the sea change rendered on the housing sector was real then it should take a long time for investors to get back into this market.  A spike down and 50% bounce when there has been no base builidng will not lead to a sustainable price move that should last over many years.  Bull markets are not launched in this manner. 

Or put another way, the only characteristic the housing sector chart has of starting a bull run is that it is over 50% off it's highs, and this is not a particularly good one.   

Or put another way, ask yourself how a cruise ship makes a turn?  The answer: very slowly. 

Submitted by Guy Lerner on Wed, 2008/02/13 - 3:57pm » 

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