Kathy:
I understand what you are saying but as I understand it the Federal Reserve will be meeting BEFORE the next ECB meeting. And I am fairly certain that Bernanke will cut at/before this meeting given the rappidly deteriorating economic conditions here in the US. That is hardly bullish for the USD. I think it's a "long shot" to price in a full point drop in ECB rates by next year. We have to remember that Trichet's mandate is price stability, not economic growth. With the US Govt. bailout plan being expanded as we speak I see no logical reason to be USD bullish going forward. Monetization of debt by the Fed will result in hyperinflation. There is no other way around it. The USD is extremely overbought at levels above 80.
Just my 2 cents.

Sincerely,
Chris M.