As mentioned in previous and recent articles on this website, global growth has slowed, and the Dollar breakout is likely to be a fakeout. I don't believe the fundamentals support a strong dollar. The last "breakout" in the dollar was in May, 2005 and gold was at $400 and from that point, gold went on to $1000 in 2 years. As far as commodities are concerned, I think you will have a competing dynamic of negative real interest rates and lower global growth; therefore, commodities are ranged bound until growth picks up again in 12 to 18 months is my guess. I think oil and gold are at their lower ends of that price range. Technically, gold is not in a bear market yet; same for crude oil. They will need time to move to new highs. As far as central bankers go, they will inflate! That is their mandate.

Is the selloff in commodities overdone? Probably not, but that doesn't mean their bull markets are over. Nothing ever grows to the sky and even markets need time to rest.