Non-Farm Payrolls: My View
By Ray Barros | February 05, 2010 | 12:26 PM | 0 Comments
Here are the expectations for tonight 8:30 am EST:
Consensus Consensus Range
Nonfarm Payrolls 0 -40,000 to 75,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 10.1 % 9.9 % to 10.2 %
Average Hourly Earnings 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.2
My view we will see worse than expected numbers but within range: around the -25000 to - 30000 zone. If we do see these numbers, we can expect more early downside for the reasons in stated in today’s Forum-Twitter, I do expect to see a higher close. Even if the higher close does not occur, I expect to see a rotational day with around a 12-point range.
- Numbers below -40000 will probably result in another trend day down.
- Numbers above 75000 should see a strong day up
Most experienced technicians from Quant to Discretionary are looking for some sort of bounce. This includes my favourite quant service: Quantifiable Edges. But this statement by QE is why I like the service so much - you won’t find many quants saying it:
“The second thing to keep in mind is that this market is now again acting in a historically abnormal way….When the market does not conform to historical norms then it’s reasonable to take extra precautions.”
The reason I like it is because it reflects the idea that successful traders keep their mind open to all the information is providing even info that does not support their conclusion.
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