Thanks Kurt. 

As it turns out, in addition to demand from the Middle East, Russia is also planning 30 new coal-fired plants over the next 2-3 years, and in China a new facility comes on-line every 10 days. In fact, last year the country added 96 gigawatts of new coal-fired generation. This is the equivalent of Great Britian's existing coal fleet! The main sources are the China, US, India, Australia, South Africa, Russia, and Indonesia, with reserves in over 70 countries, estimated to last about 147 years based on current data at the World Coal Institute.

You are correct regarding cutting back on exports. As a result, many US companies are doing well by shipping overseas. China suspended exports early in the year, so other Asian countries have been paying up. Even with the high transportation costs, the price of coal is high enough to make a nice return. Australia is the largest exporter, but it is having difficulty keeping up due to rail and port congestion issues. 

So yes, I think it could help US companies. Even if they do not ship directly to the Middle East, the coal has to come from somewhere, opening up other demand. Furthermore, the Middle Eastern countries are likely to bid up prices in the short-term. Someday China will be able to ramp up operations at their own plants, and become a net exporter again, but that may be a while. While there is no guarantee that prices will continue to rise (they recently took a beating with some other commodities last week), I do expect demand to continue to increase. Companies like Peabody, Arch Coal, CONSOL, and Massey will benefit. Here in Tulsa, I had the opportunity to hear the CEO of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) speak at a luncheon. The demand story is amazing and the CEO was impressive. ARLP is also an nice play.

As to whether increases in demand are factored into the current prices, I don't yet have a good answer. I hope to do a little more research and write more on coal in the future. Hopefully I will know a little more then. 

Dave