US Employment Lookout

NFP -68,000 vs -20,000
Unemployment Rate 9.8% vs 9.7%
Manufacturing is expected to show a decline of -15K vs +11K last month
Weekly hours are expected to come in at 33.7 vs 33.9.  This is still low and is indicative of a slack capacity.

EURUSD

 

 

EURUSD is inbetween the 100 and 200 hour MA.  On the topside there is a number of high hourly bars at the 1.3654 level and the 1.3691 level was the two week old high price prior to this weeks push to the 1.3735 level.  On the downside, watch 1.3551 which is the 61.8% of the low to high range over the last few weeks. Yesterday this level held.  Below that watch 1.3513 and the low range which is 1.3437-51.  A break below this low region should start a new extension to lower levels for the pair.    These levels should provide clues and support/resistance levels to lean against after the number is released. For example, if the market moves higher through 1.3654, look for that level to provide support on a corrective move.

GBPUSD

 

 

The GBPUSD is just above the 100 hour MA at 1.5015 level. If the price should move lower through this level, the bias turns to the downside and with targets to the downside at 1.4960 (=midpont of weeks range) and then the 1.4880 level.  On the topside, watch the 1.5066 level and above that 1.5135.

The 200 hour MA at the 1.5176 level is resistance with the 38.2% of the high to low move from the Feb 17th high to the recent low at 1.4785. This increases the importance of the level on the topside.

USDJPY

 

 

The USDJPY is up near the ceiling over the last 6 trading days at the 89.45 level. The 200 hour MA is at the 89.31.  This give a positive bias, as long as the price remains above these key levels.  Above is the 38.2% retracement of the recent move down from the Feb 18th high to the low reached yesterday at the 89.66 level (see chart above) and then the midpoint of the same move at 90.13. At 90.14 is the 100 day Moving average (blue line in the daily chart below).  This increases the importance from a technical basis of this level.  Moves above these levels signal a likely futher move up for the pair.

On the downside, a break below the 200 hour MA at the 89.31 level would target the 100 hour MA below (blue line in chart above) at the 88.92 level. Below that level the key level on the downside becomes the 88.23 level which is the 61.8% retracement of the November 2009 low to the January 2010 high (see daily chart below).  Yesterday the market traded below this level but bounce quickly signalling support buyers at the level. 

 

 

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