EUR/USD Out of Downtrend into Holding Pattern

 

 

The Greece situation, the ECB rate decision and press conference on Thursday, the NFP on Friday (snow effect?), all are coming to a head in the next couple of days and the market is preparing for it by converging at the equilibrium levels.  Over the last week or so, the price has made a few breaks below the 1.3483 level  which is the 61.8% of the 2009 low to high range.  However, each time, the market rebounded.  Today the break took the pair to new 9 1/2 month lows, at 1.3437 but that failed and the market shot back higher. 

ON the topside, the price seems to find reason to pause at the 1.3653 level. There have been a few breaks to the upside, but each time, the price increase was quickly rejected.

So it is probably appropriate that the price is around the 100 and 200 hour MA at the  1.3552 and 1.3560. 

Which way will we break (and I am anticipating a break), is a toss up.  With the Moving averages converged with the price, the move above or below the moving average will determine the bias. Above the moving averages and the bias is bullish. Below and the bias is bearish.  The market will confirm a bullish bias with moves through 1.3613 and then 1.3654. On the downside, a break below the 1.3483 level (61.8% on daily) and then the 1.3437/44 level will confirm that directional play.

Markets are meant to trade and they are meant to move in a direction.  When they are non-trending, they tend to get antsy and the market looks to move away.  Be aware.  A move away should be on the horizon.